The Bull Case For Stocks as S&P Hits 5,000 with
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- čas přidán 23. 05. 2024
- On this episode of “On The Tape,” Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses discuss the broken market structure, opportunities in the market, China and more!
Later, Danny and Guy sit down with Luke Gromen, founder of Forest from the Trees, for his macro view and bullish stock market outlook.
Topics:
- David Einhorn: The Markets Are Fundamentally Broken
- ARM Rallies 60% on Earnings
- Dividend Stocks
- Huge Stock Moves
- China’s Deflationary Spiral
- Why Americans Are So Down on a Strong Economy
- Commercial Real Estate
- Complacency
- Sports Betting Stocks & Super Bowl Picks
- Intro Luke Gromen
- Why He Turned Bullish
- Luke’s “North Star”
- The Bear Case For Stocks
- The U.S. Dollar
- Real Interest Rates/Fiscal Dominance
- Why Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin Could Go Up In A 45 Degree Angle
- The Yield Curve
- The Everything Bubble
- When Will Gold Have Its Day?
Timecodes
0:00 - Major Stock Moves
18:10 - China
22:45 - Bad Feelings, Good Economy
26:05 - Commercial Real Estate
33:00 - Sports Stocks & Picks
36:40 - Luke's 30k Foot View
43:30 - Luke's North Star
48:30 - Warning Signs
54:50 - U.S. Debt Concerns
58:20 - Real Interest Rates
1:04:30 - Yield Curve Inversion
1:10:00 - What's Next?
1:16:15 - Gold
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About the Show:
On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.
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I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio of $450k dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
she actually appears to be well-read and educated. I just did a Google search for her name and found her webpage, I appreciate you sharing
The S&P 500 finished down 20% in 2022. This means long term investors have a great starting point in 2023. Here are 4 very popular ETF’s: $VOO- S&P 500 fund $VTI- Total US stock market $QQQ- High growth, tech $SCHD- Growth + Dividends| I just tallied my dividends for the year;$167k Blessed and grateful, disciplined and focused.
My "boring" index funds just paid me over $6,000 in dividends last month. This is money that i can choose to spend without having to sell any of my shares. But for now i have it all set to reinvest to buy me even more index funds.
Anyone have recommendations for a reliable monthly investment? I hope to ultimately supplement my income from work with a monthly income from investments. I will still make long-term investments, but it would be wonderful to have a little additional money each month.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Regardless of whether you're a wise person, it's best to consult a professional advisor right away. As a business owner in the service industry as well as an eBay reseller of all product categories, I can attest to the fact that we are in a severe recession and that everyone is running out of money.
Starting early is simply the best way of getting ahead to build wealth , investing remains a priority. I learnt from my last year's experience , I am able to build a suitable life beause I invested early ahead this time.
that's quite impressive, you surely made a good bit of money. I myself invested in warren's BRK-A stock quite pricey but totally worth it.
STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS! she is whom i work with look her up.
I have followed Tom Lee all year, and he was right thus far. With SPX poised close 5000, there is larger upside potential if it can break out over that level. I cashed out before the dip, now I have less than a 200k to average down with. Any ideas? Should I get into short positions this Q1 or is it headed higher?
Don't be in a hurry to get back in. The market needs several days of strong performance to signal that the downturn might be over; It's a time to be largely, if not entirely, in cash
Holidays are over, i had heavy spending on households. I could use a lottery win or a sudden pump from one of my holdings. My trading skills are inadequate.
I feel that one. SOFI, TSLA NVDA, I also included MSFT and ServiceNow, as well as some energy plays like WFRD stock.
Its unclear which stocks and sectors will continue driving the uptrend. Stay away from the stock market if you do not have guidance from a plannner and investment strategist. My finances have been in order since I got a wealth planner like Monica with large following working for me.
Who is this Monica you speak about? I have been searching for an advisor who can direct us on where the economy is headed new year.
Why do I have to search so far down to find this 🤔
Luke is the man! I’m all in on his view, thrilled to see how it will play out.
the yield on bonds have decreased especially on the long end (30 and 10 Y) indicating that the demand is still there even if the supply remains huge showing a preference for safety. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k
@tiffanydaggett.Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?
@tiffanydaggett.Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks *.*
That's because they moved issuance to the front, and limit supply to 10s, 30s
@tiffanydaggett. Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks *.*
Amazing discussion with Luke. I appreciate you guys.
13% fiscal deficit into fiscal dominance.
Sounds like a fun time, can hardly wait. Futures so bright gotta wear shades. 😎
Great discussion regarding the likely "big print" coming. Thansk Team RR & HAGW
Guy Adami needs to work for Zero Hedge doom and gloom group
They only hire ppl with higher than 85 Iq
Absolutely incredible good talk!
Luke is excellent
Moses ask, “What is your sell sign…”. My sell sign is when Dan and Guy and Liz get constructive and bullish. 😢😢😢
Amen!
Hello from Germany. I am 100% on your wave length. I am just as puzzled as you guys are. One day all this will be over and sanity will come back to the market. I saw one chart which showed that the smart money is selling into this irrationality big time. I guess the Hedge Funds are laughing right now.
Hey Dan, too bad you didnt take the NVDA breakout trade you highlighted, but how is that QQQ Put working?
Your brilliant! Thank Janet and Jerome plain and simple
@bdek68 you're *
Obviously, you trade correctly 💯. Congrats on being perfect and a billionaire genius. A-hole.
People keep wondering when the market will make a downturn but what if the market just goes up all year long? Like a bull run from late 2023 to early 2025, then maybe take a break after.
For anyone who says Guy shouldn't opine on music history.. shame on you. I show up to watch BECAUSE of YOU. Also... I am looking to make money.
I need to add another degree to understand Luke Gromen. Danny Mosley asked Luke to dumb it down and yet the dumbed down version was still confusing. Is he related to Joe Biden as this would complete the puzzle. Simply put what is the short term forecast for equities?? Dan/Guy please clarify.
if you look at options prices for many sectors, especially banks,for pre and post BTFP ending in march then you'll see how the broad market is viewing it as an important event to hedge.
The STOCK MARKET IS NOT THE ECONOMY AND THE ECONOMY IS NOT THE STOCK MARKET !
There’s a lot of FOMO happening in the market as of late
Guy, please stop saying “Vis a vie” makes you sound pompous and douchey.
80% equities 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the s&p500 as leading indicators predict above 10% rise by this year, my only issue is how to properly allocate a large stock/bond portfolio for substantial gains at minimum risk.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions
I agree, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q1 next year
Great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
Natalie Noel Burns is the licensed advisor I use, Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her explaining my financial market goals and scheduled a call.
I appreciate that Guy has some humility. Dan should take a page out of Guys book. Happy S and P 5k 🛎️ 🎉
Amidst shifting economic tides, the Fed's early move on interest rates before hitting the 2% inflation mark signals a crucial turn for investors. This isn't just about stocks and bonds reacting; it's a ripe moment for crypto enthusiasts. As traditional markets recalibrate, the crypto world beckons with its promise of growth and diversification. It's a call to action for investors to rethink strategies and possibly ride the wave of change that's sweeping through the financial landscape.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a nine weeks... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
She often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name...
@FrancineDuguay .
I read about Francine Duguay too on the internet. That was how I connected with her. Good is got people’s back too....
She appears to be a true authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I browsed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and career. She owes me a fiduciary duty to act in my best interests.
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.
5000 ACHIEVED! SPX 10,000 BY 2025
And a loaf of bread will be $30. Good luck with that
6000-6500 is more likely…this market will not correct anytime soon…all indicators are bullish and all news is good news
@@ericmetzger8402you obviously haven’t been investing very long. Let me guess? Since 2013
Thank God these two make a living as a tv personality. They would lose so much money with their analysis of the market. These two negative Nancies have been bearish the last year.
what could decelerate growth? banks. banks create most of the money in our debt based monetary system. when the fed just QE's the gov't debt then okay, its debt monetization, but they're not right now. Gov't debt by itself isnt money, its an IOU. Banks will be the catalyst for slower growth and BTFP is ending in march. big banks want turmoil so they can continue their 100+ year journey of gaining more market share and weeding out the small banking industry of the United States and the world.
I ❤ that song too “I Know A Littlle “ Lynard Skynard is dope 👍💪 Guy AI will keep this rocket 🚀 in orbit!Get on the bus 🚎 mate 😂😂😂
The thing to me is, if you invest and have other income outside of dividends then you will be able to live off dividends without selling. Which means you can pass that on to your kids which will give them a leg up in life. $52k dividends received in 2023.
I agree! That's why it is advisable that you have to invest while you still have a regular job or earning a regular income, and do it constantly. You still need to have something that will keep you going even if you're investing. Good financial planning and money allocation is the key.
I had my share of ups and downs when I first started looking for a consistent passive income so I hired an expert advisor for aid, and following her advice, I poured some money in value stocks and digital assets,i accrued over $80K in dividends last year
Fantastic! That sounds wonderful. How can I get in touch with your financial supervisor?
Natalie Noel burns is among the most accomplished portfolio managers in the industry, widely acknowledged for her outstanding work. I highly recommend taking a closer look at her impressive portfolio.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
The more bearish you guys get, the more bullish I am. How much are you guys down YOY????
These guys are clowns. How do they even have jobs. Even a gambler are less wrong than them. Holy smokes.
These two teddy bears are worse than a broken clock. Those puts keep losing value by the second.
why would you become more bullish as the extended market values continues to get ever more extended versus their earnings?
you speak as if you would keep buying more and more during the tulip bubble the more it went up, as people who didnt understand what was happening kept getting more bearish
@@user-en5is4lr9v ??
@@davidrupert5285 whats "wrong"? what this even mean?
At some point there will be a pull back. At that point this channel will be correct 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ I don’t get it with the constant bearish rhetoric, day in day out, month in month out, year after year - even a broken clock is right twice a day….
Because the problems have never been fixed!!! Did you listen to this video. He is saying that without the FeD kicking the can down the road that markets left to their own would tank
The highest for the S&P 500 is 5250, more bullishness won't come, so stocks aren't going to the moon this year😋....
Some scary shit!
these folks have 0 skin in the game. period.
huh
clowns @@crohmer
Oh boy, Danny is worse than a broken clock.
Was this show a rerun? More pods more being wrong
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow = All Time High
SDAN etf = also All Time High
🤣
Fundamentals matter... A lot. You guys just dont understand them anymore
How much of this run is scared money now getting in? The national debts is at all time highs so the amount of dollars in circulation should also be close to all time highs right?
Don’t bet against TSLA
No one wants EVs
@@bdek68 Is that why they’re selling millions? I don’t want them but my idiot friends do. Especially, if they are cheap and easy to maintain.
Also, the fact is that TSLA is way more than a car company.
Nah! The demand was in the past. Everyone is selling them and the used prices are cratering
Or, we could tax the super rich as we tax the poor.
I can't imagine how much money the people who listen to these permabears have lost. Perhaps time for a class action lawsuit? LOL!
You guys just guaranteed the Niners and the under.😂
In the last 1 1/2 years, bears have been absolutely run over. That's what it is.