Will The Boring Company "Vegas Loop" gamble pay off?
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- čas přidán 23. 05. 2024
- The Boring Company’s “Vegas Loop” has a lot of controversy surrounding it. And while it might have had a lackluster opening to some, this video dives deeper into the contract between Elon Musk’s tunneling company and the Las Vegas Convention Center.
In this video, I break down the history, technology, and business model of Boring Company as well as the results of completing (or failing to complete) its contract in Vegas.
Is this a new frontier of public transportation? Or another chapter in failed futuristic transport?
Chapters:
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0:00 Intro and Preface
2:03 History of The Boring Company
4:18 The Vegas Loop Overview
9:55 Total Success
11:38 Mixed Success
12:51 Total Failure Scenario
15:15 Summary
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"Verbal" approval for a multi-city high speed tunnel. Verbal? Musk agreed with himself.
Around 10 people per load/unload cycle? (2-3 people X 4 cars). It doesn't have a prayer of getting to 4400 per hour.
hypothetically, people could just get in a car, on their own, which would lower capacity
"he is down to earth" lol
So down to earth he once called someone a "p e d h o" just because that someone said musk's submarine wont fit in into the cave.
The kindest thing I can say about him is that he's a tw-a-t.
So far the system has only been approved for a max 11 cars in the tunnel at anyone time and at a max speed of 40mph and 10mph at the station's. Good luck with the 4400 per hour. Look up BYD Skyrail it's even cheaper than this sewer tunnel and its system is fully driverless..
Thoughts on Alon Levy's analysis of TBC's tunnel costs? I think Alon argues that part of what makes the tunnels so cheap is that tunneling alone is pretty cheap. It's the stations that are expensive and the only underground station on the Loop isn't really comparable to a subway station(no platforms, turnstiles, customer service desk, ticketing machines, etc.). So if you compare it to a subway system it's cheap, compare it to a water tunnel it's less impressive.
good to see you a trying to take an impartial view on this. I don't see anyone talking about what the other bids were for this project and what their concepts were and projected cost. It Would be interesting to find out and might make for a good video.
Thanks! And good idea. I'll look into it!
@@Enginomics Would be interesting to know if the LVCC seriously considered implementing bus lanes and buses, which is what all the transportation experts agree would be the best solution. That and better pedestrian paths.
Very interesting and well presented.
I note that most of the stock footage of tunnels under construction are not TBM tunnels but mined or drill and blast tunnels.
My only comment on your video was that in the concluding remarks you said that TBC have already made technology leaps forward in tunnel boring. This is not the case. Any tunnel engineer will tell you that they have used 30 year old technology to do a very basic tunnel in very favourable ground conditions with almost no constraints. Their cost and rate of tunneling was comparable with similar tunnel in the general industry.
Tunnel metro systems far more impressive than this, using state of the art TBM’s are being constructed daily around the world. They have a very long way to go to catch up.
The stock footage for the tunnels were mostly filler for the visuals. As for the tunneling technology, I figured that the cheaper tunnels were a result of better technology and not the smaller tunnel area. Good to note
@@Enginomics Is cheap because the tunnel is smaller and with no safety measures. The price per square meter of the tunnel for vegas loop was 5k USD, which is average price for tunnels: www.researchgate.net/figure/Approximate-costs-for-tunnel-excavation-and-support-per-tunnel-meter-according-to-ground_fig3_314096492
Actually it is higher than average, because vegas loop doesn't have 20 sm in diameter, is having only 12 sm.
The LVCC loop used off-the-shelf old machines for a proof of concept test. They will be moving forward with their own design TBM called Prufrock, which is faster, cheaper to operate and totally electric. It's already in LV to begin the next phase of the total loop system.
The extension is from LVCC loop to Resorts World. Construction is already well underway.
they'll need far more than 60 drivers, unless you're assuming they all work 24/7/365. but the design of the central station alone should tell you this boondoggle was never intended to succeed.
It must be awful to work as a driver in these tunnels anyway. Even if the route wasn't so monotone the switching lights would drive you slowly but surely crazy.
@@JuliaN-ti9zv the whole thing is way too labour intensive. if there's never more than a few hundred passengers an hour it'll be ok i guess but a few thousand will be a mess. there's already videos of the stewards/security getting stressed & it's not even busy.
My money is on total failure.
If the limitation ended up being the fire code, I think that would not trigger the penalties.
Really? Meeting fire code is part of overall design. Are the engineers for this project kindergartners? Because if they are not, they didn't do their job. And just for giggles, would you be willing to be in that tunnel when one of the epic battery fires Tesla is famous for breaks out? I mean, where are the escape passages?
@@ReachOutToWilliam Tesla fires are quite rare, and when they have happened it’s under specific conditions, that won’t happen to vehicles traveling through tunnels.
Subways have been targets of poison gas attacks and bombings. Would you say that makes subways a bad idea?
As for fire code violations, the convention center loop would not have been allowed to open if it were not in compliance.
Good video! Would love an updated video after LVCC certified the capacity after the video was released. I heard from an interview from an LVCC exec that the new Resorts World hotel has already broke ground on connecting the hotel to the LVCC loop. This is going to be interesting.
Thank you! Looking forward to seeing it as well.
First class analysis. You have a new subscription.
Thanks and welcome. Working to bring even more content!
He had 3 multi million homes just in California alone.
Down to earth my ass. No way anyone should take this video seriously.
The point of this intro was to discuss how Elon Musk is a polarizing figure.
You’re welcome to dismiss my analysis based on an offhand comment at the 10 second mark but I’d implore you to dig deeper
@@Enginomics polarizing figure except a down to earth guy off hand remark or not. Believe me i love TSLA but Boring company is just a marketing side project.
Kudos for being able to take constructive criticism and making a much improved video.
You might want to look into the history of big city mass transit. A few years ago the New York times had a expose of a subway project and comparing it to Paris and Berlin. Very similar projects and yet New York was paying more than twice as much and had more than twice as many workers using the exact same machines. They also had over 500 phantom workers.
Some info on Chicago:The two top candidates both said they were going to dump the project and Mayor Lightfoot did as soon as she was elected.
Boring offered to Chicago to put in a high-speed tunnel to the airport at no taxpayer expense.
Now Chicago still has a never used empty transit center that Boring would have used and Chicago may have to pay back many millions of federal dollars.
So, "Mayor Lori Lightfoot acknowledged Wednesday that the CTA could be forced to repay federal grant money used to retire bonds that bankrolled construction of the still-empty super-station beneath the Block 37 mixed-use project"
And “That doesn’t change my view of the Elon Musk project. The notion that he could do this without any city money is a total fantasy. And in thinking about what our transportation needs are, I’m not sure that an express train to O’Hare in the current proposal rises to the top of our list.”
www.google.com/amp/s/chicago.suntimes.com/platform/amp/2019/6/5/18654425/cta-block-37-federal-grants-superstation-transit-elon-musk-ohare
Thanks! And thats a super interesting article!
Tunnels are not a "closed course for testing FSD" because they are such a limited use case. Tesla has already been testing FSD for quite some time in real-world driving conditions, which are far more challenging than the LVCC.
The reason the LVCC will initially have human drivers is because the LVCC poses a unique software challenge that is not a normal part of FSD: dispatching. It's one thing to make a car that can drive itself; it's another to make a whole system that manages a large number of cars for maximum throughput.
I more so meant as a closed course in which the public can interact with FSD cars. You bring up a good point about the dispatching system which would have to be an entirely separate software / platform to coordinate everything. This definitely isn't an "out of the box" solution
@@Enginomics Okay, I see what you meant by "closed course". Makes sense now.
I'd like to see one Tesla drive itself through the loop unassisted with the current FSD software, never mind any dispatching. Then I'd like to see two or three self-driven vehicles traverse the loop at 30 mph with only a few feet between them. If it's possible, the demonstration is trivial. If I don't see the demonstration, I'm skeptical that the current software can handle it. It doesn't seem like a terribly difficult thing to automate, but I doubt that it has been automated yet.
Sure, it's possible at some price, but even if the Teslas are fully automated, is this a sensible way to move 4400 passengers per hour through a short tunnel? Doesn't look like it to me. Why don't airports move people between terminals this way? Because if you proposed this solution up-front, no one would take it seriously.
The tunnel is too small...if a car breaks down, one direction of the loop shuts down...how will that be fixed? At the very least, the tunnel should have been twice the size and the vehicles need to have much higher capacity...basically a bus, or an electric bus. There is no chance this will succeed...which is too bad since I think underground public transportation is a good idea.
From my understanding, they plan on going in with a forklift to retrieve broken down vehicles. As for the tunnel size, that is ultimately why the tunnel is so cheap to begin with. The tunnels may be able to be retrofitted for a small electric bus if this ultimately fails
Couple things:
LVVCA purchased the monorail out of a prearranged bankruptcy citing a primary justification that it allowed a non compete clause to be voided.
Because of the poor track record of the monorail and the benefit of it's existence primarily going to the connected resorts there was a proposal to have MGM Resorts purchase the system instead. LVVCA insisted there was no time for options due to the CES target opening.
I suspect the penalties in the contracts for not meeting capacity requirements will be funneled to the trade show organizers. Convention attendees really don't like the cost and time inefficiencies of getting around the convention center.
First vid where I found some information regarding fire safety of this system. I'd assume there are strict standards for tunnels in the United States. It'd be interesting what fire safety measures are in place. In my homecountry we have quite a lot of tunnels for cars, we'd had our share of accidents (according to a paper from the gov. I found ~1800 accidents in the last 20 years with 112 casualties).
In our tunnels we have every couple of hundert meters exit doors, as well as several markers how far the tunnel exit is with distance.
Tunnel from the inside can be seen here, as well as how good the smoke absorbers can work:
czcams.com/video/ocpiE1rkFmI/video.html
Second vid also shows better how scary and hazardous a fire in a tunnel can be.
czcams.com/video/CSYOAwJ4hEQ/video.html
3rd a video from an EV burning in a tunnel:
czcams.com/video/iZ9aVFIMkVE/video.html
as seen the fire fighters need room to manuveure, something I can't see happening in the tunnel build in Las Vegas
Drive through vegas loop:
czcams.com/video/xUoZCUqbCNg/video.html
In the drive through vid you can actually spot door like objects every couble hundert meters, but it's hard to see if this is really an emergency exit.
In case of a fire it would really be hard to even spot the door with all the smoke going on, so I'm wondering if this is really an emergency exit, and if so why is there insufficent marking?
The road is really narrow so if one vehicle is on fire and you''d have to get out there's not much space for you to walk
To sum it up:
Boring company did promise a lot, but underdelivered. in many aspects
- no self driving system yet (maybe in the future but not at release which is a failure on promise. An alternative could be that the GOV regulations require a driver to be present, in which case the promise was a bust from beginning)
- higher costs than promised (this happens a lot for other companies as well, but is a failure on promise none than less)
~ capacity (as far as I can see the promised capacity is possible but only in best case scenarios. If the promise can be kept we'll see at the first big show, thus neutral)
~ fire safety (I'd assume they meet the GOV safety goals but I wouldn't feel safe in this tunnel. From a quick search I could find that there are several categories in which a tunnel can be so maybe I'm comparing tunnels which have a higher requirement to a tunnel which doesn't have that requirement)
+ flashy lights
+ ... I don't know can't really find other pros here
just had a thought... what happens if there is an extended weekend-long thing, say a convention, and the batteries run out
I think they’d have to hot swap out Tesla’s after they run out of range. I haven’t seen any of the behind the scenes charging infrastructure they have in place though.
The vehicles are charged off-site every night. Someone asked the drivers about running out of energy, and the driver said they never come close to empty in one day of driving. The low speeds (compared to highway driving) probably contribute to extended range.
Public transportation with wide sliding doors usually allows disabled people on wheelchairs and parents with pushchairs and kids to board rather quickly, I wonder if the Teslas are even equipped to safely accommodate children.
I’ve heard alternative methods of transportation are being considered for disabled individuals and children such as an above ground golf cart style shuttle. In my opinion this defeats the point of the loop to begin with.
@@Enginomics this is ludicrous.
@@Enginomics How would specialty vehicles defeat the purpose of the loop?
@@kevinbailey8827 In the case of children and disabled individuals (two groups of people who'd benefit most from a convention center spanning transportation system) the loop fails to address both of these groups. In my opinion, public transportations' goal should be to allow all people of any ability or age to use it safely and to that effect, fails to live up to that expectation.
@@Enginomics Valid criticism. I understand from watching part of a public hearing that The Boring Company is addressing the issue of disabled passengers. I'm not sure what the issue is for children. Children ride in cars all the time, so it's not a structural problem.
So what did the numbers from the 1st convention end up showing?
That is what I'd like to know as well...I did hear that Las Vegas City and Miami have talked with TBC to implement this system...though I would have thought they would want to wait and see how this project pans out first.
Sorry for the late response but the test according to the LVCVA said that the loop capacity test was a success and plans are in the works for future tunnels.
Miami announced a tunnel a tunnel recently for $30 million for a 2 mile stretch. It should be interesting to see where these go next!
You/re much too generous. There's nothing futuristic about driving cars through tunnels. That the cars are EVs hardly matters. Self-driving cars are a bit futuristic, but trains on rails already move people without drivers. Skipping the rails, separating the cars and powering the separate cars with batteries in this sort of loop makes no sense. If this project fails, futuristic transport has little to do with it. Conventional transportation technology is applied poorly.
Apparently, these tunnels have no ventilation, and if your car stops, you barely have room to get out and walk. If cars travel through these tunnels at any speed, never mind 30 mph, with only a few feet between them, as illustrated in the marketing video, what happens if a breakdown or a collision occurs? What if a fire occurs? Smoke is filling this tiny tunnel and hundreds of people are scrambling to get out. That's not FUD. Any sane person would ask these questions.
It’s a lie that the tunnels have no ventilation. It’s an oft-repeated lie, but that doesn’t make it true.
Would you be so kind and include your sources somewhere? Thanks mate
Good video. I agree with your “so prove it” conclusion.
Thanks for going through the contract. It would be good to know true split between the construction and operation parts of the contract.
- How long is TBC contracted to operate the system?
- How will they paid for operation?
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The current design has major safety issues with some pax entering on the BM guideway side of the vehicle. I can’t think of any other public transportation that puts passengers that close to a moving hazard.
They will have to keep the speed down for safety although this should also allow the safe headway to be short, increasing capacity.
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A capacity test with volunteer passengers has just been done.
In the video below looks like a vehicle departs every 2-3 seconds so effective maximum capacity would be 3-pax vehicle x 1.2k-1.8k = 3.6k-5.4k pax per hour per direction
.
czcams.com/video/agc6idfnT5s/video.html
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They say test capacity exceeded 4.4k pax per hour
news3lv.com/news/local/lvcva-results-of-las-vegas-convention-center-loop-tests
Thanks for the feedback Tim! As for your questions with the contract, a lot of the inner workings of how the Boring Company will operate isn't stated from what I read anyways. They keep their financials close to their chest but TBC has a lot of investors and funding just from the proof of concepts they've demonstrated. That said, the operating costs could be this projects downfall if they don't roll out self driving or reach promised capacity.
@@Enginomics When you say "proof of concept" I'm not sure what you are referring to. TBC certainly have a concept, but as yet they have proven that they can take an old school average TBM and dig a simple tunnel with it 40ft underground with very few constraints. There are a hundred companies around the world doing this and far far more.
I assume the investors are just buying in to Mr Musk's reputation. Any in depth analysis of TBC's concept can show it is 90% bluster with very little evidence of anything new.
I think they have to add drivers to inspire confidence in the passengers. If a Tesla drives by itself in a tiny claustrophobic tunnel and suddenly stops, this will lead to a PR disaster that even Elon Musk couldn't get out of.
great video. I will be interested to see if you can get a ride in the system.
Finally someone other than me recognize this as a prt (personal rapid transit) system.
It's an interesting concept for sure. Might dive into it more in a future video
Down to earth ?
Seriously
In Scotland, "fud" means a female sexual organ often referred to as a "c**t".
For the present system to attain the 4400 passengers/hour this means that each Tesla needs to stop, load 3 passengers and set off again every 2.5 seconds. If one car has a problem, bang goes the schedule. What happens when a driver needs a toilet break or needs to eat, and heaven help the system if ever there is an accident or a breakdown. Musk has an obsession with taking existing systems and cutting them down to smaller units. Rather than use trains, he wants to use small pods.
Another CZcamsr desperately clinging to another of Elon's brain farts. A lot of "he said, she said" and no attempt to seriously investigate the capacity constraints of the system. I might be an engineer and also an engineer who has worked on transportation systems, but I don't need to be. Basic physics and maths reveals that the system will never come close to its stated capacity. Its just simply never going to work as contracted.
What would be far more interesting is a look into what the LVCC will do as a result of this failure? How soon can it claim possession, evict TBC and install moving walkways - which would move far more people. Will they also investigate how they came to be so egregiously mislead and what action they can take to prevent this kind of failure in the future?
It’s not a failure, though there is room for improvement.
What has Las Vegas done in response? Approved a 29 mile extension!
Gamer lights to make the system run faster? Youre so full of it.
It's a joke...
@@Enginomics my bad, apologies.
Musk haven't proven anyone wrong. He is a cult leader which you fell under his spell.
I was trying to be as impartial as possible in this video. In my previous video I got into the good and bad of the system, good being that it’s a good marketing ploy for Tesla, and bad in the department of capacity, safety, and overall promises made