Ukraine's river crossing can change the war
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- čas přidán 4. 06. 2024
- Ukraine's foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River can be the most important development on the frontline for over a year. If they manage to expand it into a real bridgehead, that will change the dynamics of the entire battlefront.
0:00 Breaking the stalemate
0:39 The frontline of 2023
1:50 The river
3:23 The Ukrainian foothold
4:21 A Russian withdrawal?
5:31 What is a more favorable position?
6:29 The Russian dilemma
7:56 After Russia's current offensive
As a former soldier im supprised time and again what Ukranie manages to achive with such constrants when it comes to kit......
When you don't care about losses you can achieve a lot. Ukraine is confirming the old truth.
Yep they meat grind the troops and barely get any results, 300k dead and a success, they crossed a river, wonder how many drowned to achieve this :(
Lol they're counter offensive was arse
@@traumvonhaitilol do you have any idea what the russian losses are?
@@PolishBehemothNope, and neither do you. But we both know that Russia has 5x the population (pre war) and likely 7x the population now that half of Ukraine has left.
One side can afford casualties, one side can’t. Wanna guess which one can’t?
Just one little point of clarification. The front is much longer than 1000km; that's just the part that Ukraine is "allowed" to attack through. Ukraine's defensive front is more than twice as long, running the length of the Russian border from Luhansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv oblasts and along the entire border with Belarus. Attacks from Belarus are not common, but attacks on Kharkiv and Sumy from within Russia are almost daily, from what I hear.
That’s a good point.
I doubt Ukraine able to commit another grand offensive due to lack of ammo, equipment, supply, fuel and manpower. Dnipro front has been stagnate since june and many Ukrainian manpower and armored vehicles are now focusing on Avdeevka.
@@yudhiworkhouseyuedhie1258 Not many Ukrainian armoured vehicles seen in Avdiivka. That is the place where Russian armour dies from artillery, handheld AT and FPV drones.
@@stream2watch simple, Ukraine has abandon Avdeevka. In fact between 28 -29 october there are report that Ukraine High Command evacuate all their senior officer from the city since many attempt to ptevent Russian encirclement has failed even after sending remaining Ukrainian armored brigades.
@@stream2watch Unlike battle of Bakhmut, now the Russian have enough ammo, artillery shells, mortar and drones to achieve capture of the city. Let's not forget Russian have air supriorty now.
It may be a little off-topic, but thanks for the clear and accent-free pronunciation. As a native german speaker learning english, i can easily understand the english here and follow the content.
Thank you Anders. Ukraine has surprised us many times and this seems to be another clever effort.
Ukraine is winning they have been since the start so they tell us. Now Ukraine admits it has lost ALL of its professional military to the last man. Over 600,000 dead and 2 million wounded suddenly its a stalemate. They don't want all of Ukraine they want to bleed NATO and Israelistan dry of cash and weapons. Anders you're a PHUCK WIT.
Unlike all the other armchair generals on CZcams Anders is actually qualified
David and Goliath
It’s amazing what a military can do when it’s leaders are sober!
Surprised you by what? How totally incompetent an entire army can be? Conducting river crossing operations when there is zero reason to do so is the sign of a complete dumb ass planning your operations. The Ukrainian command is dominated by mouth breathing morons.
A man that understands the difference between a problem and a dilemma! Always presenting your enemy with problems is obvious. But problems can be solved. Present them with dilemmas and they are forced to choose between the multiple bad choices that they still have available. The more unfavorable you can make their remaining choices, the better.
Such wisdom!
You, Sir, are the next Zhukov!
1. How is the river crossing going (2 weeks since the video)
2. Presuming that there are 2 UA battalions on that side of the river, what is the minimum daily supply in tons and how many rubber boat trips does that take to ferry over?
A few more weeks... and it's been a near total failure.
Sacrificed men for literally nothing
@shueyk2320 I know. But Herr Puck, the "analyst", is oblivious and wrong. It's like he's a NATO propagandist. 🤣
Thank you for this analysis.
Good to hear this. Again thank you for the useful analysis.
👍🇺🇦Great report. Thank you
Thanks for this brilliant analysis
Never underestimate the ability of a handful of well trained soldiers to cause havoc to the enemy if they hit the right spots.
Thank you Anders for this piece, it was really well explained and opened my eyes on that "small" part of the war :)
Reasonably short, structured, loaded with great analysis. As always. Thank you very much indeed!
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. Nathan from Portland, Oregon
Jag älskar dina utmärkta förklaringar och kommentarer. Tack igen!
Yes your take on this disaster is very helpful thanks from 🇦🇺🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Thanks for sharing your expertise and analysis with everyone!
Thanks for the reference in your video.
@@anderspuckI came here after Jake referenced you; I am so glad he did. Your facts and straight up discussion are wonderfully presented. I’m now subscribed and look forward to your next video release! Cheers from New Orleans… 🥃
Kakhovka bridgehead is the very place where the Muscovite monarchists (VSUR) had lost their civil war to the Muscovite communists (RKKA) back in 1920, when the latter created the same foothold at the left bank of the Dnipro river and then advanced from there on Crimea, while the Ukrainian anarchists (RPAU) advanced on Crimea from Tokmak. And this is exactly how Muscovy will lose this war to Ukraine now, one century later.
Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it :)
@@ZuluknobIt´s an attrition war between Rusia and NATO. 42 countries are producing and sending weapons to Ukraine. Even Sweden alone can defeat Russia, a third world country. We, the West have infinitely more production and population than Russia does.
@@Zuluknob It is not just size that matters but how you use it.
Wishful thinking. The failure of Ukrainian counteroffensive is a direct result of underestimation of Russian army.
You are making the exact same mistake: Russians know quite well what happened in 1920 and will act accordingly.
'3 day special military operation.'
Thank you for your videos sir. One more thing I’d like to point out is that Russian 1st and 2nd defense lines were practically impossible to restore after Russia blew up the Kahovka dam, which contributed to an ability of Ukrainian forces to bypass even the second line of defense in some areas already. The soil is really moist because of all the groundwater and tranches are just filling up with it if you dig deeper than a couple of feet.
@JenyaFookleff, correction.
Nato/Ukraine blew the dam.
Why would the russians blow the dam if the river was protecting them from the Nazis?
First point Russia did not blow up the dam, nor did they attack their own pipeline, or their own nuclear power station. You are obviously one of the many gullible people who believes what they like to believe regardless of whether it’s true or not. If you had any brains you would ask a few simple questions like who these incidents benefit. For instance. Who would benefit from blowing up these facilities, certainly not Russia. After spending billions on the pipeline all they need to do if they wanted to stop the flow was turn off the valves. In the case of the damn, Ukraine had already tried several times to blow it up. They occupied the power station it would be very easy to blow it up. If they had wanted it blown they wouldn’t have stopped Ukraine firing missiles at it
Why would Russia blow up a dam with the result being a destruction of their defensive positions? Seems that Ukraine blew up the dam. And I believe that dam was involved in collecting water that gets sent to Crimea.
Thanks for the update. Well done!!👍
Anders, you've understated the strategic implications of the Ukrainian lodgement on the left bank of the Dnipro. Strategically, Russia now seeks to create international borders roughly along the current line of contact. Essentially, Russia is pursuing long-term stalemate-in-place. If, on the other hand, the Ukrainians can control both banks of the river in critical places, then they deny Russia the natural barrier as the new demarcation between countries. If the Ukrainians can strengthen their toehold into a bridgehead, this would also help shield the vital port of Odessa.
"Strategically, Russia now seeks to create international borders roughly along the current line of contact. Essentially, Russia is pursuing long-term stalemate-in-place."
No, Russia is busy killing the Ukraine army until it crumbles. The overall killratio is around 20 to 1 in Russian advantage.
Last week, Putin openly discussed this matter in a way that clearly signalled that Russia is now most likely aiming to take at least everything east of Dniepr +Nikolaev and Odessa, or to take everything except what was originally the Polish west.
And of course, Medvedev openly warned 2 months ago that either Ukraine surrenders unconditionally, or it will cease to exist.
.
"Essentially, Russia is pursuing long-term stalemate-in-place."
Only a complete moron believes that.
Current Russian KIAs, 35 thousand confirmed, 40-50 thousand estimated.
Current Ukrainian KIAs, 400 thousand confirmed(back in May 2023), 650-850 thousand estimated.
Ukraine military at start of 2022, 700 thousand troops, over 3 thousand tanks, over 500 combat aircraft. Of those troops, well over half were "trained and equipped to the best Nato standards". Or as the Florida colonel who had been there since 2014 training Ukraine troops to attack Russia, "they're the best Nato army in the world and they'll be in Moscow before end of the year!".
Russian intervention force, was just over 100 thousand troops, 1 thousand tanks and 600 combat aircraft.
Ukraine has since mobilised at least 2 million people and been given or refurbished 1-2 thousand tanks and 200-300 combat aircraft.
Russia has mobilised 300 thousand and recruited about 500 thousand volunteers.
Russia fought at a numerical disadvantage up until March 2023. During Autumn 2022, Russia had roughly 60-65 thousand troops deployed, plus around 50 thousand DPR/LPR troops, against roughly a million Ukraine troops, as they peaked in manpower in September.
Ukraine had a population of around 40 million at start of 2022. Today, it is estimated that at most 26 million remains. About 4-5 million have fled to Russia, the rest westwards, where they mostly aim to REMAIN.
Months ago, we had samples of Ukrainian mobilisation glorious success, when a 50+ old man with a heart condition surrendered so that he could get the medicine he needed(he was literally grabbed off the street, knocked out and woke up in training camp). And then there was the 73 year old that surrendered last month.
And now last week, a pregnant woman.
And of course, that's before the obvious, that the west is now beginning to bugger out because they see how badly they are losing.
Or as the Nato general recently warned against trying to fight Russia directly, "we would lose 3500 DEAD per day if we tried".
They won't be able to, as the ukraines have one inlet they can use to keep the bridge head open, the russians are already crossing and pushing the north side to keep direct fire on the inlet. Ukraine has lost 5 boats today trying to resupply the marines they landed. At this point they won't be able to get them back out either.
@@Robert53area You wouldn't happen to have any proper geo located video sources for that? What someone said on telegram, or some ministry barfed up, doesn't really count in a world where open source intelligence is typically days or weeks ahead of the official narrative.
@@Robert53area "Ukraine has lost 5 boats today"
I read a claim yesterday that Ukraine lost an AVERAGE of 4 boats every day.
"At this point they won't be able to get them back out either."
Nope. There's a reason why Russia is trying to sink ALL boats when they're going BACK.
Because as long as Ukraine is capable of getting troops across, it gives the impression that "we can do this!", and they keep doing it...
@@Robert53areaSilly boy.
The Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River represents a major strategic development that has the potential to shift the stalemate on the frontlines. If Ukraine can consolidate and expand this foothold while fending off Russia's offensive in the east, it could put itself in a favorable position to launch decisive counteroffensives next year.
🤡
they won't be able too. You can't just send troops across a massive river unopposed. This is a suicidal mission. Unless Ukraine is attempting the Normandy landings and a lightning push; they will not be able to slowly and methodically push out Russians. You can't just dislodge Russians with 500 troops; you need to go all out. I've never once called any attack by any side in this war 'suicidal' until now. Yes, Russia's avdivka offensive was bad; Ukraine's counteroffensive was also bad; but this is suicidal. What happens when those 500 troops need to retreat? They'll have to ferry every bit of equipment from that bank. This will cause enormous losses and equipment capture. And to think all this was done for publicity.
So it's not just a trap for them? It'seems risky... then again it's a war...
Tactical advances won't move the needle.
Zaluzhnyy made it clear that the war is at a stalemate.
@@traumvonhaiti • I always consider the possibility that a Commander may spread disinformation. It is certainly to Ukraine's advantage to have Putin believe Ukraine sees a stalemate and will negotiate. Putin's belief will then lead him to downplay the significance of Ukraine's bridgehead over the Dnipro so he will not reinforce this part of the frontline.
It seems to me that the initiative and flexibility of thinking that Ukraine is showing, in contrast to the unmaginative and rigid thinking of the Russians, is the real wining weapon they have.
Fully agree!
Which, to my mind, is another way of saying that democracy is a more effective system than authoritarianism. Another example is the way that Russian commanders are fundamentally concerned with improving/securing their own political positions (Prigozhin having been the most visible example), whereas the Ukrainians are focused on winning the war. Dictatorships corrupt every level of society and can't produce leaders who act on the basis of a greater good.
@Acid_Viking explains why napoleon failed and so did hitler and Mussolini and Stalin failed.
@@righthandstep5 Stalin started the WW2 to capture half-Poland, and ended the war capturing Whole poland, and Half-Europe.
what a "Failure"!
"in contrast to the unmaginative and rigid thinking of the Russians"
Hmmm...
Ukraine start of 2022, 700 thousand troops, nearly 2/3 of which trained and equipped "to the best Nato standards", over 3 thousand tanks, over 500 combat aircraft. And not to forget, 5 thousand each Stingers and Javelins, minimum.
Plus since then, over 2 million mobilised. Ukraine troop numbers peaked at 1 million around September/October 2022. Ukraine current troop numbers, around 500 thousand.
Russian intervention, 100 thousand troops, 1 thousand tanks, 600 combat aircraft. First 9 months, never more than 125 thousand troops actively deployed against Ukraine. Russian forces reached numerical parity in March 2023 with Ukraine.
Russian KIAs, 35 thousand confirmed, 40-50 thousand estimated total. Despite attacking.
Ukraine KIAs, over 400 thousand confirmed in May 2023, 650-850 thousand estimated total. Despite defending from the biggest complex of fortifications since the Maginot line and possibly ever.
So, every time there's mobile warfare and Russia utterly wrecks Ukraine despite having much less troops, that's just some sort of freak accident?
Maybe you should think about you delusions?
The dillema is not difficult. Russia should prevent the bridgehead. The river is the best defensive line, the second or third options are both much worse.
Its partially similar to D-Day, the best chance of the germans was to stop the allies at the beaches, like Rommel wanted.
They very clearly have allowed this situation to develop a sunk cost for the UA.
All those men & boats sent (& sunk) for no real gain
It's nice to hear somewhat-encouraging news; from a trusted source. Thanks Anders.
The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people and forcesswhile fighting with only a portion of the protection they were promised (in multiple signed agreements) is absolutely incredible.
Slava Ukraini.
All of Anders news is encouraging!
And most of it turns out wrong 🎉
Is one of the agreements you mentioned include the Minsk agreement?
@@black_triton9264 All of Anders news is balanced!
As for your 2nd premise, care to provide any specific examples?
@@guydreamr "blalanced", "unbiased" means calling out the good and bad plays on each side. That never happens on this channel. Why? Because Anders is an officer at a Danish mil academy. He's a serving NATO officer. He'll be on the carpet for disloyalty if he says RU did something well. He kept saying the UA c/offensive was making gains when it was already dead in the water. Look at what he said about Bakhmut being "strategically important " while in UA hands then magically it wasn't very important once it changed hands. All those "game changers" that amounted to nothing. Putin has cancer/14th heart attack/med issues.. ok, I'll bite. Source? Zero. Putin under political stress/tenuous hold on power... as evidencedby what? RU has sustained hundreds of thousands of deaths... BBC (UK MoD?) Funded "mediazona project" says different (check it out for yourself). When RU started using upgraded RM37 and shot down 25 UA aircraft in last two weeks of October... crickets.
Here is some BS "analysis" from this vid: RU has to pull back to high ground away from river and build defences there OR fight at the current bridgehead line. Why can't they do both? Is that what RU did in order to build the Surovikin Line? Pull back and not maintain the line of contact? 🤡
Anders is a navy guy (i think the equivalent of an army major). I'll presume he knows what he's talking about in the maritime environment (im givinghim a freebie because i haven't heard any). But he's out to lunch on army operations. I conclude that he is either trying to make a popular name for western audience echo chamber to sell books/CZcams revenue OR the channel is a NATO info op.
So why do I watch Anders? Because I listen to points of view across the whole spectrum and then make my own assessment of who is winning. It's not who Anders says it is...
@@guydreamr How is it balanced when he NEVER talks about Russian success but only Ukranian? He wont even call an offensive that had as a STATED GOAL to reach the Azov Sea a failure when it doesn't reach its goal. Anders is a propagandist much like russian milbloggers and like many of them he prefers only to report the stuff going in favour of his 'faction'.
As always, consistent and flawless exposition. Thanks ever so much
Tack för lite efterlängtade goda nyheter! ❤
Helpful and informative as usual, but not often enough 😊
My appetite for Anders P N needs more frequent posts 😁
It appears to me, a strict amateur, that the Ukrainian command is very careful with the lives of their troops, It seems they carefully probe options in contrast to human wave tactics.
😂
It also seems to me, another amateur prone of making analogies, that Russian command is very indifferent about the lives of certain troops while they might be more careful with others. Namely, they seem to be throwing ethnic and political minorities (amog others) into those human waves, much like the Soviet command threw a lot of non-russians into Finnish front during Winter War. Kinda like an ethnic and political cleansing while forcing your enemy do the killing for you.
Normbale. Your comment is extraordinary!
70,000 plus lost in the failed offensive. Desperate for weapons and men. WW1 generals were more careful.
@1faustus the British lost 60 thousand men opening day of the Somme, do you know nothing of world war one. 1000 casualties a day is a drop in the hat compared to WW1.
Always got to give a listen when he post a video. Good stuff
"When I first came here, this was all swamp. Everyone said I was daft to build a castle on a swamp, but I built in all the same, just to show them. It sank into the swamp. So I built a second one. That sank into the swamp. So I built a third. That burned down, fell over, then sank into the swamp. But the fourth one stayed up. And that's what you're going to get, Lad, the strongest castle in all of England."
"But I don’t want any of that, I’d rather… I’d rather … just … sing!" :p
This operation in a nutshell. :)
I noticed you keep you comment section clean; so I guess, this funny bit by Monty Python won't go through - just like the counteroffensive. :)
Great points, as always, thank you very much for the update.
Thanks 👍🌞
Great video. Two comments. One, even if the Ukrainians never manage to push eastwards from this bridgehead, just securing the Kinburn Spit will allow them much freer use of Mikolaev port both now and in a future long term frozen conflict scenario. Two, the bed of the former Nova Khakhovka reservoir will over time dry up …. and may freeze hard if this is a cold winter. That would open up the front line considerably.
If AFU captures the dam then they build it up a few ft which would stop the lower Dnipro long enough for the ground to freeze for crossing and bridging.
I certainly wouldn't want to advance across something that wide open…
they cannot secure Kinburn Spit, because there is no way to supply and defend it from the Ukrainian side, sending forces their is effectively a death sentence, with no line of retreat and surrounded by water on 3 sides
@johntowers1213
Correct. It was obvious from the beginning but now it's starkly obvious
thank you so much for the update, please keep it up 🙏👍
Thank you for the hope, Andres
Ty!
He’s back! 🎉
super that you are so active with your commentary. very exciting stuff thanks for comments and insights into the situation in Ukraine.
I have been wondering about the possible significance of the UAR's efforts at crossing the river and sure enough, you post a video on it!
This bridghead would be close to Crimea as well, threatening it if it develops
Another downside from the Russian point of view in allowing the bridgehead is that it expands the area that can be hit by Ukrainian rockets and more importantly, artillery. Ukraine may be close enough to actually cut the land bridge to Crimea from Russia, which would ramp up the importance of the Kerch bridge.
Not really. The two choke-points to Crimea is still well out of range for GMLRS ("HIMARS") rockets. Ukraine would have to advance more than 50km towards Crimea before their standard artillery would be in range. However, as soon as Boeing-SAAB get their fckng finger out and start delivering GLSDBs in large numbers Ukraine will be able to hit both choke-points from their current positions.
Ukraine can't get equipment like HIMARS across the river.
"Another downside from the Russian point of view in allowing the bridgehead is that it expands the area that can be hit by Ukrainian rockets and more importantly, artillery."
Uh-huh... So why don't you explain how you move heavy artillery across water on rubber dingys?
And, do you even understand that right now, the entire bridgehead is getting hit on a daily basis by TOS-1 flamethrower MLRS?
You know, thermobaric warheads that kills anything in range of it, even behind cover unless it's airtight and explosion proof cover.
In a location, where Ukraine is unable to dig in deep, because the local watertable is too close to the ground.
"Ukraine may be close enough to actually cut the land bridge to Crimea from Russia"
And the copium runs high at your place. Wow. If it wasn't so stupidly delusional, it would be hilarious.
Ukraine took nearly 300 dead in losses just in the last week at the bridgehead. That's almost a battalion worth of people.
And Russia is destroying a large part of the boats, AFTER they deliver troops to the bridgehead.
And since you apparently failed to notice, the absolute first thing Russia did after they started their SMO, was to create DEFENSIVE LINES in the north of Crimea and south of Kherson.
In Southeast Zaporoche, Ukraine threw everything it had against Russian defenses, and now, 5 months later, they have still just barely reached the first line of defense. The only part of the defense they have actually gotten past was the outer line of dragonteeth, and even that, just barely.
Oh, and of course, then we have the TINY little problem of manpower.
Ukraine doesn't HAVE ANY. The average Ukraine soldier today is in their 40s or 50s, and have 2-4 weeks of training. And Ukraine literally ran out of strategic reserves before they admitted the great superduper uberoffensive was over.
Russia has about 600 thousand troops in strategic reserve, this is more than Ukraine has troops in total. Do you actually think Ukraine can achieven anything NOW that Russia has numerical superiority?
When Russia utterly crushed Ukraine even when they had a numerical disadvantage of 3 to 1?
The current killratio in Russian advantage is estimated around 20 to 1.
Do the math, draw actual conclusions.
Think about what you're doing supporting nazis.
@@DIREWOLFx75 Russian troll - I see this name spouting the same BS in multiple posts.
@@DIREWOLFx75 I mainly agree but claiming 20 to 1 manpower loss ratio is about as realistic as the NAFO guys talking about resuming the counter offensive next year. Those kind of numbers lose credibility for your overall argument.
Thanks - as always very much worth watching 👍
thx. always precise and logical
Thanks!
Thank you for your always wellfounded and informative analysis
Thank you Anders 🙌
Really
Very Insightful !!! Thank you Anders
Ukraine's river crossing can change the war -- let's review this in Jan. 2024.
Thanks for sharing your expertise with us through this video. I sincerely hope for this to break up the current static situation, but I think they won't risk such a scale of undertaking because of the unpredictability of the weather in autumn.
Thank you ❤
Thanks for another great video :)
If Ukraine can gain a solid foothold, or several footholds, on the left bank, not only will it force the Russians to stretch their forces, it means stretching the forces into an area that is logistically difficult to support.
Haha hahahahahaha HAHAHAHAHA gahagahahahagahagaga
Not happening. Z.
1. can ukraine even supply this foothold under all the russian artillery and air?
2. how is it logistically difficult for russians?
All operations seem to be logistically difficult for Russians!@@Klovaneer
They can't. They are running out of men and equipment.
Do you realize that Ukraine has been on this counter offensive for over 5 months and have lost 100,000 men in that time. They have made very minor advances in a couple of areas. Overall Ukraine has actually lost more territory.
Endelig! Har ventet på en af dine videoer længe 😊
This guy has a relaxing voice, enjoyable to listen to.
As good as always. Thank you Sir.
The same dilemna was there in 1944. Rommel wanted to stop them straight away, but his superior wanted to retreat, for a war of manoeuvre
I always look forward to a dose of logic when you put out a video. Good stuff. Slava Ukraini!
Why is every analyst missing the greatest development of this stage of the war, that is Ukraine successfully denying Crimea as a base for russian naval and air forces? They effectively shut down Sevastopol and denied Russia's embargo on the Black Sea after they backed away from the grain deal. That is huge! A lot more important than the small territorial gains in the south and Dnipro region.
Thank you.
Good to hear something positiv. Thanks for that.
Thank you, Anders, for your very insightful analysis.
Thanking the dude who feeds you BS is some strange form of personality decay)
Very informative, thanks
Great analysis. Thank you.
Run to the hills
Run for your life… 🎶😁
Love your videos. thanks for putting them out.
Thank you very much for your informative strategic analyze and update😊👍
Thanks Andres, for this analysis, but also for sticking with the Ukrainian War coverage when so many other sources of information have moved on.
Totally agree. I am sticking with every channel that stays in Ukraine.
At this stage of the stalemate and with wavering enthusiasm (or even waning support ) for Ukraine in the West, we pin😅😅😅 our hopes on "what if possibilities". I hope Anders you are right and the Ukrainian bridge head will expand to at least Tokmak (!!!), Mariupol and even beyond. GRL, Sydney
Do you see a stalemate, Gerhard?
I don't.
Ukraine challenged Russia with their offensive. Russia prepared. Ukraine lost.
And now Russia is attacking Avdiivka.
This will be a huge loss for Ukraine.
Much appreciated.
Very clear thank you and good use of maps
Hi Anders, thank you very much for sharing your knowledge about warfare and what's goibg on in Ucraina. I appreciate that, I also noticed that you and other youtubers very often refer to the warmap, that for a long time has shown i stallmate. But is that the most important when discribing how things are develloping? Another important thing to look at - I think - is: How much military capacity is lost on either side due to the intence fightings every day? Which side it bleeding the most compared to overall strenghs/capacity? Finally: I would like your comments on the (insufficient) deliveries of support from the western allies to Ucraina, how is that affecting the situation? I'll appeciate you comments on these questions (if you see them, if you don't, you're excused!)
Your EXCELLENT reports are KEY. I never miss them.
Very interesting. Thanks.
Thank you very much, Anders Puck Nielsen, for your analysis.
🇺🇦 Заради кожного життя українця! 🇺🇦
Reminds the controversy between Rommel and Runsted in the spring of 1944: was it best to prevent the bridgehead to exist from the very beginning, or let it settle and counterattack when the time was favourable?
May the Russians know the same destiny as the Germans!
"May the Russians know the same destiny as the Germans!"
Why? If you don't like the German nazis, why do you want the Ukraine nazis to win now?
Why don't you go enroll in their foreign legion if you love their "pure Ayrans" so much?
Get yourself a welldeserved Darwin award?
@@DIREWOLFx75 Come one, every one knows this "Ukraine Nazis" propaganda is bullsh**t. Please improve your fake news.
Ukrainian nazis? LMFAO.😂😂😂 If you like the Russian fascists so much, why aren’t you on the frontlines?
@@DIREWOLFx75Nazi's glorified genocide on state TV and sent their troops to slaughter, Russia glorifies suggested genocide on State TV (See solovyov) and sends thousands of troops to slaughter . Oh and Wagner had Neo Nazi tattoos. Who is more akin to Nazis ?
@@DIREWOLFx75 why?
Because they invaded their neighbour, who did not threaten them, and whom they deny the right to exist as a nation.
That's why.
Thank you
@Anders Puck Nielsen: tak for denne video-analyse, jeg er fuldstændig enig med dig i din vurdering.
- En ting der overraskede mig, var rapporter om at Ukraine nu anvender helikoptere i angreb på russiske styrker SYD for Dnieper ?? - er russisk AA defence eliminatet ??.
1 like på vej.
Jeg siger også tak. Ukraine har helt klart gået hårdt efter det russiske antiluftskyts de sidste mange måneder, men om vi allerede nu er der, hvor det er helt elimineret, det lyder næsten for godt til at være sandt. For mit eget vedkommende glæder jeg mig især til at se, når ukrainerne lancerer den næste forårsoffensiv med støtte fra F16 fly i luften, som forhåbentlig vil bane vejen til Tokmak og videre frem for dem.
Ukraine is winning they have been since the start so they tell us. Now Ukraine admits it has lost ALL of its professional military to the last man. Over 600,000 dead and 2 million wounded suddenly its a stalemate. They don't want all of Ukraine they want to bleed NATO and Israelistan dry of cash and weapons. Anders you're a PHUCK WIT.
War is a thinking man's game. I ❤ how concisely focused, knowledgeable and forward-thinking the mind of Anders is. After watching his videos I always come away feeling like I'm more "war smart" than before. For example, following the logic of this presentation you don't just want to cause problems for your adversary, you want to cause him "damned if I do, damned if I don't" dilemmas that weaken him and leverage your own warfighting capacity. And by extension, one needs to likewise be ever alert to detect where, when and how your adversary might well be attempting to return the favor.
Men det er jo umuligt for ukraine at vinde ... En mindre nation med mindre materiel og mandskab kan ikke vinde over en større nation. Det er rimelig simpel logistik.
@@gustavalexander8676 1) Har du hørt om Vietnam krigen & Sovjet Unionens Invation af Afghanistan, vor egen "insats" i Afghanistan . . . dyrk lidt historie læsning kammerat.
2) Jeg er fysisk meget stærkere end dig, så jeg forlanger at DU giver mig 30% af alt du ejer - Okey ??, jeg håber, for dig, at du accepter - - - ellers......
Som altid en sober og vel gennemtænkt analyse.. tak
Thanks for your insights.
Thanks, Anders.
Slava Ukraïni! 🇺🇦
Thanks for the video. Glory to Ukraine.
Brillant News Thank you sir!
Thanks, Anders...again.
No solid river crossing makes movement of armored vehicles quite risky, I'm afraid. I hope Ukraine can widen the foothold though for next spring, as Anders pointed out.
I think they will push the russian artillery further away before they attempt a larger crossing.
@@harmless6813also need want drones out of range so they can blind the transfer over river
Kherson is liberated for over a year.
Plenty of time to dig a tunnel 😉
I wonder if the advancement in FPV and other drone tech would make a retreat into those higher ground areas less of a refuge than they expect? We've seen some longer range attacks on vehicles and infantry done by the Ukrainian drone forces, and if they have a bridgehead, I'm guessing it's way easier to get drone teams over the river than artillery systems.
Ukraine actually moved one of their best known drone unit to that part of the front. And they have been very busy ...
In the vietnam war the Vietcong and North Vietnamese army did transport Artillery in small parts over/thruh a mountains, rivers and jungles.
The French and later South vietamese / US army did not nottice till artillery shells started dropping on their troops.
It all depends on NOT being spotted by the enemy
As long as they're operating in the lowlands like they're currently doing, fpv drones are very effective. The downside to the fpv drones however is that they require a line of sight between the antenna on the drone, and the antenna at the controllers. If the operator is located in the lowlands, that means the drones will lose signal at the critical final approach to the target, if the target is located top of the elevation, behind the horizon relative to the operator. The Ukrainians however have been busy developing their drones, to incorporate signal relay drones - similar to how the lancet drones operate - but there hasn't been much news regarding how successful that effort has been yet.
@@Ragnaroz6000The Ukrainian company Himera is building relay systems for this purpose.
Thx for the name, I will look them up. I knew they were using a relay technique, but not who was developing it. If you have the travel range on the drone you could get a LONG way out with multiple 'chained' relays, just limited by drone range. You are probably not going to get the further afield ones back, but expending drones is very common, even for missions where the drone is doing just deep recon, as I understand it, especially the cheap Charlie commercial quads, which in some areas are becoming less effective due to being easily countered. @@harmless6813
Well informed analysis - as always!
As usual the most interesting clear concise analisis of this war on youtube
Doesn't the bridgehead also begin segmenting Crimea from Donetsk? There are only a small number of bridges that move supplies north from Crimea and this completely eliminates the major road network from the western bridge.
Thank you for pointing out what a lot of places have missed.
Like you said, important work has been happening and especially now, is happening.
💙💛 Our help for Ukraine also ends up helping our own countries. russia is a problem for all of us.
Yes yes YES. How can we get this vital point across to people? Especially in the USA. 🇺🇦🇺🇸
Man youve been watching way too much fox and cnn 😂
The timing is spicy..
Winter will limit overland defensive and (counter)offensive efforts...
But not impeed overwater efforts
If roads are cut the winter will serve Ukraines efforts to solidify the beachhead.
I assume mine laying and entrenching is a nogo till spring
Tak for en som altid god analyse.
How is this offensive going at the moment? News coverage on the crossing has died down over the last weeks. Is Ukraine still making progress, or has the offensive in this region culminated?
The New York Times had an article with this headline on Dec 16. "Ukrainian Marines on ‘Suicide Mission’ in Crossing the Dnipro River"
"Soldiers frustrated by positive reports from Ukrainian officials break their silence, describing the effort as brutalizing and, ultimately, futile." "The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that it was not immediately possible to comment on the soldiers’ accusations but that it would provide a response in due course."
I think a very important thing missing from your map is Energodar NPP - that would be a big propaganda loss if RF just abandoned that area.
Excellent as usuall
Thanks Anders
❤❤❤
I would love to hear some more discussion on the logistics involved. As I recall it was a big deal when all of the bridges across the Dnipro were taken down, thereby making the Russian position untenable. This is the same siltation but in reverse. How is it a good thing. Are we shipping eminently destructible pontoons to Ukraine, or is there some other, better plan for getting supplies and heavy weapons across?
Thank you for this helpful update!!
update of fiction bullshit
@@chadhaire1711 Any arguments ?
@@mariaf.6601 This guy is a joke..talks like the Ukraine war is just starting....it is just ending and Russia is holding all the cards...
@@mariaf.6601What about reality?
@@claus-not-santa What is, according to you, in the video real and what isn't ?