How to Find Market Leaders + Judge Stock Market Conditions | Interview with Duckman17 CANSLIM Trader

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  • @RichardMoglen
    @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety +28

    Timestamps:
    0:00 Intro
    0:19 Duckman’s Background
    2:00 TASR Class Competition
    3:00 How To Make Money In Stocks
    3:25 Books Recs
    4:00 Jesse Livermore
    5:20 Nicolas Darvas- Stepping away from the Market
    6:55 Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns- Steve Bulkowski
    8:05 What Software do you use?
    8:25 Worden TC2000
    9:40 MarketSmith
    10:54 How would you classify your trading
    11:40 Focusing on sitting for the Big move
    12:25 Bending your style with the Market
    14:35 Starting to trade with real Money
    15:25 Blowing up accounts and resetting
    16:00 Building Conviction, Psychological Stamina and Trading Confidence
    17:30 Micheal Kors-Ego, Averaging down mistake
    18:00 Stay humble
    18:45 HTMMIS, Trading mistakes
    19:27 Fundamental versus Technical Analysis
    20:10 Ringo
    22:00 Ripley’s TML List
    23:35 Watching how many stocks are on the list
    24:30 Tier’s of Stock Quality, Earnings, Sales, Technicals
    26:00 OSTK Tier 4, Wayfair
    26:50 UBER
    28:30 How important are Future expected Earnings? PINS example.
    29:30 To sit for the long term, you need an Earnings Runway
    31:30 The Importance of Fund Ownership
    32:00 Quarter over Quarter Fund Ownership Growth
    33:00 Fund NAV is important- Net Asset Value
    34:30 The importance of Concentration
    36:00 Fund Numbers Sweet Spot
    36:45 Liquidity
    39:05 GRWG True Market Leader
    40:20 Paul Tudor Jones 5:1 Reward to Risk Ratio
    41:26 True Market Leader Catalysts
    41:30 3 Things That Define a True Market Leader
    42:00 Change How we work live and play
    42:10 Solved a huge problem
    42:33 The Total Addressable Market is Billions of People
    42:55 Why GOOG NFLX MAZN FB were so successful
    43:20 Studies of True Market Leaders
    44:20 Risk Management Always
    44:30 Xerox Example
    45:20 Lorillard Example
    47:00 Burroughs Adding Machines Example
    48:09 Bethlehem Steel
    49:00 ZM Example
    51:22 Syntex Example
    53:16 Relative Strength Characteristics
    53:40 Duckmans RS Document
    54:25 Focus on Stocks resisting the market declines.
    55:30 Supply and Demand
    56:15 RS Line
    57:18 Stocks not making a new low when the market is
    57:50 TSLA RS
    58:36 SPX Bottom
    58:50 TSLA Barely undercut 200 SMA, indexes did by 20%
    1:00:00 DOCU Relative Strength Example
    1:00:25 Stock Charts- NAA200R % Stocks above 200 SMA
    1:02:20 Relative Strength Buy Rule for for Follow through day
    1:02:55 You always want 3 reasons to buy a stock
    1:04:30 Keep your risk less than 7-8%. That dog don’t hunt
    1:05:09 DXCM ZM TDOC
    1:06:20 AAPL Historical Example, 3 Waves Down
    1:07:30 Richard Wyckoff
    1:08:30 3/6/2009 Apple RS
    1:09:00 RS Line Base
    1:12:01 2020 was one of the best Bull Markets
    1:13:07 Model Book Stocks of 2020
    1:15:00 How to determine Market Conditions- The Fed
    1:15:30 Fed Actions in 2008-2009
    1:17:20 What is Quantitative Easing (QE)
    1:19:00 Adjustable Rate Mortgages
    1:20:00 Effect of QE on Market 2009
    1:21:00 Effect of QE on Market 2020
    1:23:10 Why 2020 was so spectacular
    1:23:40 Smart money follows the fed
    1:24:45 Effect of low interest rates
    1:27:43 The Fed helps with conviction
    1:28:21 Let the positions take you out
    1:28:55 Market Oscillators
    1:29:40 13 Weeks after the Follow Through Day the rally becomes obvious
    1:30:10 Short Term Trend In sync
    1:32:00 T2106 Adv v Dec
    1:33:30 Not Buying High in the Bollinger Bands
    1:34:00 Don’t buy near new VIX lows
    1:35:30 Market always brings downs your Ego
    1:36:00 March 2020 Bottom
    1:37:18 2019 Bounce
    1:37:30 2018 Bounce
    1:39:40 Stack the probabilities- Tailwinds
    1:41:02 T2108 Stocks greater than 40 day SMA
    1:41:41 Hello! A la Roppel
    1:42:05 Is Fear a more reliable indicator than Greed?
    1:42:28 NAAIM Exposure Indicator
    1:45:20 Long Term Trend of the Stock Market- Innovation
    1:46:40 You learn to welcome bear markets
    1:47:40 NAAIM Extreme Levels
    1:48:05 Studies Advice
    1:49:40 FTD vol study
    1:51:00 BOs are a Liquidity Event, Do the opposite of the crowd
    1:52:00 Never doubt a FTD
    1:53:50 The more severe the decline, the more dramatic the snap back

    • @chewytrades1982
      @chewytrades1982 Před 3 lety

      At 6:59... the interviewer becomes a student. I see what you did there taking notes. That's what makes you special Richard!

  • @Phil22886
    @Phil22886 Před 3 lety +29

    Dude, you're putting up great interviews. I've gained more from your interviews than from the last several Market Wizard books. This and your previous video with Oliver Kell are absolutely top notch. Thanks so much for this content.

  • @RichardMoglen
    @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety +24

    Hope you guys enjoy! Make sure you listen to when Duckman talks about the Fed, incredible stuff. Have a great weekend!

    • @Johnny-hq3cd
      @Johnny-hq3cd Před 3 lety

      46:37 Richard the show is called Mad Men! One of my favorites, love it!

  • @joshyoder5333
    @joshyoder5333 Před 3 lety +7

    "Never doubt a follow through day!!" Great interview, learned so much. 3 pages of notes fellas - awesome!

  • @iTradeAIMS
    @iTradeAIMS Před 2 lety +2

    Richard, thanks once again. i'm going through every single "interview" video on your channel. I've been in the game, successfully, yet I've learned alot from these interviews. I've been trading FX and CFD markets for over 10 years but when I dived into the world of investing in stocks, CAN SLIM has won my heart. Thanks and keep going.

  • @venkateshkoka8508
    @venkateshkoka8508 Před 3 lety +4

    Hey Richard, a big thank you for your videos. The books you ask for in the interviews and the experience and methods are a great lessons which I can't even google for, because i'm not aware of these books and methods existed. Keep going and you'll def. see 100k subscribers easy and even more.

  • @marksd5650
    @marksd5650 Před 3 lety +1

    Thank you both. I’m not experienced enough to understand everything, but I always feel like I have taken a graduate seminar for free. All my best

  • @darrenflanagan7002
    @darrenflanagan7002 Před 3 lety +4

    Richard really good stuff mate. I am 45 and have been at it about 5 years.... a late starter and all this is super helpful for my family and I. Enjoy the weekend!

  • @tmclbnk
    @tmclbnk Před 3 lety +2

    Wow, what a way to finish the week! Richard, learning the details why Relative Strength is so important. Have a great weekend 👍

  • @rosskennedy8356
    @rosskennedy8356 Před 3 lety

    Another excellent interview. Very detailed so I’ll have to rewatch and run through notes again. Totally respect the anonymity although my guess is he’s a product of Wall Street which is interesting as he now has freedoms that wall streeters don’t enjoy.
    The use of oscillators whilst not new in terms of timing was spot on although as he alluded to, hard to do in practice.
    I ran a screen based upon rs, new high, rating increase >50, rs over 80, vol change >10, fund % increase >1 on ipos since 2012
    As well as a sponsorship screen, fund % increase >20, comp rating >80, ipo from 2012.
    Both give interesting results leading to names I don’t typically find.
    Picked up the encyclopedia as always looking for something new to read.
    Thanks again.

  • @yorickqiuhangjiang4623
    @yorickqiuhangjiang4623 Před 3 lety +1

    Good morning Richard , your channel is fantastic , I used to work for financial company as trader and trainer , I have been trading since 1998 , I recommend all of my friend to watch your channel , it will help a lot of people . I like learn from the best traders , always pick up something from different people , thank you very much !

  • @davidbond9783
    @davidbond9783 Před 3 lety +2

    I am going to have to listen to that one more than once...thank you Duckman..Thank you Richard.

  • @sharigordon6312
    @sharigordon6312 Před 3 lety +1

    Love Duckman!!! Thanks Richard, I don't know how you do it, thanks for providing such value!

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety +1

      My pleasure Shari, thanks for watching and have a great weekend!

  • @miles3412
    @miles3412 Před 3 lety

    The interview was better than I expected. One of the best of Richard's.

  • @figgy163
    @figgy163 Před 3 lety +1

    Excellent interview, another great guest with so much knowledge. Fascinating stuff about the Fed specially as I just finished reading Wall Street; A History by Charles R. Geisst. Thank you to you both.

  • @ernestoapfelbaum8286
    @ernestoapfelbaum8286 Před 3 lety +2

    Besides the fact he is carnivorous and I am vegetarian and it took me around 5 hours to go over the interview taking notes IT was AWESOME! Would be great to get a 2106 copy to analyze how it works. Thanks Richard....... now I am only 2 interviews behind

  • @farzon2004
    @farzon2004 Před 3 lety +1

    Amazing interview just like all the others, loved the “you have to think about what most people are doing, and do the opposite” part

  • @seismo101
    @seismo101 Před 3 lety

    Awesome guest. Many thanks to both Richard and Duckman. I’ve been looking forward to this interview and wasn’t disappointed. Always brightens my day (makes me chuckle) when I see duckmans incognito duck face tweets

  • @grumpyjim9045
    @grumpyjim9045 Před 3 lety +6

    Richard, this was one of most informational interviews I have ever watched. We are all so lucky to have both you and Duckman to learn from.
    GJ

  • @kingisa00
    @kingisa00 Před 3 lety +1

    Awesome interview! Duckman is another trader in my small Twitter list that I listen to and follow! Excited to see the next interviews!

  • @madras61
    @madras61 Před 3 lety +2

    Great show Richard
    Interview more guests like him who are long-term investors and can show and teach us how to hold on to stocks for three-digit gains over a period of 18 to 24 months.

  • @maxsutton3661
    @maxsutton3661 Před 3 lety +1

    Great video. thank you for your time guys. great stuff. I will watch this multiple times. Great knowledge/insight as always.

  • @markj-uk
    @markj-uk Před 3 lety +1

    Absolutely brilliant! - Thank you guys

  • @cmm4579
    @cmm4579 Před 3 lety +1

    Another Great Video Richard. Can't thank you enough for consistent quality interviews with some of the best investors out there on Fin Twitter

  • @tommyc120
    @tommyc120 Před 3 lety +1

    Great video! Thank you both so much. I really enjoyed this.

  • @jimchen4269
    @jimchen4269 Před 3 lety +1

    Thank you Richard for these great content! It gives me a great perspective to different types of trading style. Much appreciated!

  • @sunilbawa4775
    @sunilbawa4775 Před 3 lety +1

    Awesome interview. He really knows his stuff!!

  • @christrueman7328
    @christrueman7328 Před 2 lety

    Again, well presented interview. Keep up the good work.

  • @MyTRK1
    @MyTRK1 Před 3 lety +1

    Sooo good... very informative. Thanks guys!

  • @bberg6080
    @bberg6080 Před 3 lety

    Richard has his first book idea, "Engineering in Investing." Duckman mentions the best thing about MS is the historical data, then goes through Xerox, Syntax etc. while a current stock chart sits on the screen. Make this a podcast, easier to listen to on the go, especially if you and guests aren't using all the tools you subscribe to. Great info, I will be printing the RS and other Rules from Duckman.

  • @davidbond9783
    @davidbond9783 Před 3 lety +1

    Great interview...again...THANK YOU so much

  • @erichorowitz644
    @erichorowitz644 Před 3 lety +3

    The show is mad men!

    • @turner352
      @turner352 Před 3 lety

      Eric is correct. The show referenced around the 46:36 mark is Mad Men.

  • @danmartin1621
    @danmartin1621 Před 2 lety

    Fantastic video!

  • @earlfridley4753
    @earlfridley4753 Před 2 lety

    Great interview. Information about the Fed policy effect very relevant to current market.

  • @joeboughan7098
    @joeboughan7098 Před 3 lety +1

    Duckman. A real life super-hero!!

  • @Bierman68858
    @Bierman68858 Před 3 lety +1

    Great informative interview and beautiful Lab.

  • @karkidipen1881
    @karkidipen1881 Před rokem

    wow! u r a man with lot of energy! keep it up! i am planning to do day trading and i have started to read books i recommended and keep on listening to the stuffs you put on you tube: love u man!

  • @khafreahmose8768
    @khafreahmose8768 Před 9 měsíci +1

    Man that was a lot to digest! Excellent content!

  • @anonymousproductions1067
    @anonymousproductions1067 Před 7 měsíci

    This dog’s trading history is awesome

  • @TheGreeneggsandkam
    @TheGreeneggsandkam Před 3 lety +1

    Great content! Learn how to use the McClellan indicator. I wonder if how he uses the MCAD along that ? Please get him back soon as I smell a pull back in near future! I would love to see how he buys fear in detail! Thanks, Richard for putting on great interviews to help us fellow investors! He spoke of 3 reasons to buy which one is relative strength, what are the other two???

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety

      The other two can be any other 2 technical reasons. I hope to have him on again sometime this year

  • @mngavish
    @mngavish Před 3 lety +1

    Much appreciation Gentleman!

  • @nathaelgonzalez8991
    @nathaelgonzalez8991 Před 7 měsíci

    Great guy- Duckman

  • @bagholderwithaplan
    @bagholderwithaplan Před 3 lety

    yup, there's a lot of value in stepping away from the market intra-day. I can't count how many times I've sold a winning stock prematurely because I was influenced by the intra-day price movement.

  • @krishnakumarmalu9400
    @krishnakumarmalu9400 Před 3 lety

    Great job guys!!

  • @Qqqqqqqqqaaaaaaa
    @Qqqqqqqqqaaaaaaa Před 3 lety +1

    Great interview! Great guy!

  • @roaddogresearch1
    @roaddogresearch1 Před 3 lety +3

    You guys are so talented I feel like a mongrel showing up at the National Dog Show expecting to compete. But you give us the confidence to keep trying.

    • @victorrossin2929
      @victorrossin2929 Před 3 lety +2

      Bill, we all were there in the beginning. Nobody starts and begins to win without losing. But, those who stick with it are the ones who make it. Stick with it. Learn. Be patient. It will come.

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety

      Well said Victor!

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety +2

      Stay with it Bill, it's just a matter of incremental improvement and experience

  • @tonyh8079
    @tonyh8079 Před 3 lety +2

    These interviews are so good I don't the ads so Richard get's paid.

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety

      Thanks Tony, I really hope any ads aren't too annoying

    • @dianeg5646
      @dianeg5646 Před 3 lety

      @@RichardMoglen I didn't realize skipping ads means you don't get revenue. Will skip no longer!

  • @TraderLion
    @TraderLion Před 3 lety

    Great Interview Richard!

  • @golbargrezaei6681
    @golbargrezaei6681 Před 3 lety

    Richard, can we listen to these interviews on a podcast too or it is only youtube?

  • @lyf8
    @lyf8 Před 3 lety

    Richard, great programs and great guests! One small suggestion: the recorded audio is too low in volume and it makes it very difficult to enjoy the great content in a noisy background such as outdoors. Can you please see if you can improve the audio volume in your future programs? Thanks much! Cheers!

  • @rohitchandan7357
    @rohitchandan7357 Před 2 lety +1

    Thanks!

  • @brianhendrix8330
    @brianhendrix8330 Před 3 lety +4

    Mad Men, I think, was the name of the NetFlix show.

  • @NTXChris
    @NTXChris Před 3 lety +1

    Great interview! I have Marketsmith also, and my weekly charts don't look like that set-up. Hard to tell, but it looks like earnings and sales are in the bottom left hand corner? If so, do you know how to make adjustments to the charts to make it look like that?

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety

      Thanks Chris, that should be what all weekly charts look like

    • @NTXChris
      @NTXChris Před 3 lety +1

      @@RichardMoglen so I thought. All in all probably the same info but formatted differently. Hard to tell since it's blurry. Thanks for the reply

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety

      @@NTXChris no problem, if it’s blurry feel free to switch the quality all the way up to 4K 👍🏻

  • @jackfortune5820
    @jackfortune5820 Před 3 lety +1

    Hi Richard, thanks a lot for sharing this amazing webinar with us. Quick question: do you know the reason to use a logarithmic scale for the price? I saw someone use log scale for fib extension, but I never figure out the math or "physics" behind it. Thanks

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety +1

      On a log charts a 1% move always is the same distance, on an Arithmetic Chart a move from 100 to 200 looks much larger than from 20 to 40 even through its the same percentage.

    • @jackfortune5820
      @jackfortune5820 Před 3 lety

      @@RichardMoglen thanks. so it is better for visualization

  • @TamNguyen-qx8zg
    @TamNguyen-qx8zg Před 3 lety

    ''In general, it doesn't take a lot of shares to bring the price of a stock down. In other words, it take less liquidity to bring a stock down. Like an Amazon or Netflix or Disney. It takes more liquidity to bring a stock up always.''

  • @Eudrick
    @Eudrick Před 3 lety +1

    Thank for the

  • @karoshii_x_1229
    @karoshii_x_1229 Před 3 lety

    Made 35,000 on OZSC... they are starting to supply Tesla with components for their mega packs ... equity investor meeting Tuesday...also added a subsidiary and are now using Wesco as a distributor.

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety

      I don't watch penny stocks.

    • @karoshii_x_1229
      @karoshii_x_1229 Před 3 lety

      @@RichardMoglen fair enough, just wanted to spread the word and present an opportunity.... I’m up 14,000 more on it at the moment ... it’s a good find for those who do penny stocks

  • @seek3n
    @seek3n Před 3 lety +1

    What is rs line? Is it rsi overlay onto price chart?

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety +2

      Its not RSI. the RS line is the price of the stock divided by the price of the spx at any given point.

  • @TheWhippinpost
    @TheWhippinpost Před 3 lety +2

    Long-form interviews are great, and allowing the subject to get their point across is good for both the listener and subject, but sometimes the interviewer must recognise when the subject has made their point and nudge them on, or edit the excess in post-production to keep it flowing. I feel this one could've benefited from that. But that's not to deride the subject or interviewer: adrenaline clamps some people up and makes others 'over-talk' - that's just human - and interviewing is not easy. I've made my point.
    Good questions, value and guest, nonetheless. Thank you.

  • @shamashmx1
    @shamashmx1 Před 2 lety

    Hey Richard, great interviews...by the way, who is duckman? I mean, what is he famous for?

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 2 lety +1

      He's not famous, on twitter he taught a lot of people through 2020. Currently works at a private fund with Mike webster

    • @shamashmx1
      @shamashmx1 Před 2 lety

      @@RichardMoglen thanks Richard interesting, I noticed he was highly respected. Fantastic interview.

  • @blakemcdermott5558
    @blakemcdermott5558 Před 2 lety

    Just rewatched this. Once of the best market chats still. Thanks for this Richard/Duckman. The talk of studies at the end got me curious. Have you ever run into any studies of extension from the 21 ema for a sell signal to reduce your position? I have always wondered if there is a certain percentage or percentage range where you might need to start to scaling some off once the stock starts moving up and getting extended from the 21 ema. 21 ema may still be a little too fast for a study like this considering all stocks have different alphas and move different. If not maybe the 50 sma? Idk just curious if you have ever run across a study like this as I know you use the 21 ema a lot same as me. Could be a useful piece of info to know. I have seen studies that say you should start to reduce your position when you are 70% or more above the 200 day. Anyways let me know if you know of any work done on that! If not I may try to set up a study myself and share what I find.

  • @benbecker6974
    @benbecker6974 Před rokem

    Mad men

  • @teslamr7333
    @teslamr7333 Před 3 lety

    I doubt he will give it up but try and ask him how he buys in after hours?

  • @gsti1985
    @gsti1985 Před 3 lety +1

    Has Duckman has always been incognito?

  • @elizabethwilson9489
    @elizabethwilson9489 Před 3 lety +1

    Great stuff. I watch several youtube videos on how to trade in the stock market but haven't made any headstart because they are either talking some gibberish or sharing their story of how they made it and I do not want to make mistakes by taking risks in my own hands.

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety

      Hey Salvatore thanks for watching. Definitely check out the rest of my market chat interviews. I would start with Pat walker's he's a great teacher and loves to help people learn trading both in terms of fundamentals and technicals: czcams.com/video/gqz2J2NqR2U/video.html

    • @stacybarrett1848
      @stacybarrett1848 Před 3 lety

      Have you considered consulting an investment advisor or using a portfolio manager?

    • @jefferybrown6797
      @jefferybrown6797 Před 3 lety

      JOANNA MALIVA LEE search her on web, she is very popular

    • @jefferybrown6797
      @jefferybrown6797 Před 3 lety

      Joanna Maliva Lee is one of the trader I have ever worked with in the past few years, she knows how best to deal with whatever market situation.

    • @elizabethwilson9489
      @elizabethwilson9489 Před 3 lety

      @@jefferybrown6797 Ok, just found her website, impressive, Thank you.

  • @jayhawkmba
    @jayhawkmba Před 3 lety +1

    Duckman doesn't have a horn growing on head so why is he hiding? I was hoping to hear what he does professionally.

  • @jimmyblack8679
    @jimmyblack8679 Před 3 lety

    Tesla tier 1 fundamentals, lmao

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety

      Triple digit earnings growth, disruptive product, inspirational ceo? What’s your take?

    • @jimmyblack8679
      @jimmyblack8679 Před 3 lety

      @@RichardMoglen From a very high level, P/E of 1,651 vs index of 29, P/S of 32 vs other auto makers which are < 1.0, and Michael Burry is short, enough said. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not calling top and not saying you can't make money on it, but the valuations are clearly ridiculous and I'm personally not touching it. Overall good episode though, and he obviously has better returns than me.

    • @AS-kh9uc
      @AS-kh9uc Před 3 lety

      @@jimmyblack8679 comparing price ratios and mentioning Michael Burry is short is not enough

    • @jimmyblack8679
      @jimmyblack8679 Před 3 lety

      Nvm got him mixed up with the +940% guy

  • @phillaysheo8
    @phillaysheo8 Před 3 lety

    Who is this person? Why should I care !? Never heard of him. Why don't you explain who he is.

    • @RichardMoglen
      @RichardMoglen  Před 3 lety +1

      He is well known in the twitter community. He i currently a portfolio manager for a private hedge fund in Austin TX, with Mike Webster, former IBD-Head Market Strategist.