Your Favorite Draft Prospect Can't Separate ... Now What?
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- čas přidán 16. 06. 2024
- Matt Harmon takes a detailed look at Florida State's WR Keon Coleman. Just because he can't separate at every level doesn't mean he can't translate to the NFL. We may have found a new archetype in the Reception Perception data.
Keon Coleman 2023 Profile: receptionperception.com/keon-...
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0:00 Intro
1:00 This Prospect Can't Get Open
2:26 Historical Outliers
4:34 Big Slot vs Deep Threat
7:42 Keon Coleman's profile
12:30 The Treylon Burks Risk
15:25 Coaching Matters
16:25 Never Skip the Outro - Sport
Bills prefer bigger athletic guys who can improvise when the play breaks down & bail Josh out. Those “jump ball- spectacular catch” guys. They also like WR’s who can run block. If you watch Josh Allen, you’ll notice he puts balls on his receivers 90% of the time, they just drop the contested 50/50 balls. Keon Coleman has good hands & can make the hard catches. 💯
False
And is a MAJOR mistake and why they haven't hit on any WR other than Diggs who is a seperator.
@@jjmadoublen7375you don’t watch the Bills a lot I take it. Shakir is far from a miss. Tho I will agree he has a lot more to prove this year. Shakir also outperformed Diggs when his playing time increased.
They haven’t hit on WR because they barely drafted any WRs after drafting Allen. Shit they have hardly spent any picks on offense period and have spent a vast majority of their draft picks on defense. It’s been a large topic for a while cause it’s one of the biggest criticisms from sports media and the Bills fan base when it comes to Beane and McDermott. Especially when the it’s Bills defense consistently fails in the biggest moments.
@jeremytaft8247 wow this is s total clown take. See Harty, Sherfield, boy were those great additions. Getting rid of Brown and Beasely then admitted it was a mistake by bringing them back. Yeah, these guys are geniuses. Smfh
@@jjmadoublen7375 you really can’t say anything about clowns when what I said goes so far over head and then say something that’s whole dam circus 😂. None of the players you brought up were brought in with the hopes of replacing Davis Diggs Shakir. If you thought or hoped for that then the only fool is you 😂
Lmao “Fake WR” for Toney and Moore is hilarious
I’ll take the WR who doesn’t slow down on his routes. Keon showed that in the gauntlet drill.
He was so damn smooth there. I feel like I weigh that drill more than I should 🫣 there’s just something ab watching a wr look great in that drill that makes me so much more confident in their success.
To be clear are you saying Coleman does slow down or doesn't slow down?
@@kevinbreese5739 doesn’t
Great job! Thank you very much!
This is great analysis and I appreciate the work
Keon Colemans burst metrics and being third in the country in punt return yards has me excited for what he can be in the short area. It is a bit of a projection and cross your fingers he lands in that role but thats where the meteoric upside with Keon lies
I appreciate this but I think it’s important to note that guys can have a very similar advanced statistical profile and still be very different players. I think Coleman has a lot more in common with someone like Kupp or Smith-Schuster than with Burkes, who had very little refinement as a receiver, was never full-time in that role, and was more of a multitool like Toney. Mingo also had much to like but was a much less developed player than Coleman. I tend to agree that his best spot in the current NFL is as a big slot, and I do appreciate the analysis tremendously, but I also think his ability to track the ball downfield, win inside and outside with leverage, dominate at the catch point, and break tackles after the catch make him more likely to succeed than someone like Burkes or really the majority of players on this list. There’s a tape element to consider as well is all I mean, but I know that’s in some ways counter to the advanced stats movement. Either way, love the content and shout to Bootleg for introducing me. I think Coleman has a strong path to success, and brings a decent amount of versatility to the table. I see a little Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin in his game.
I think you're right on your analysis of Coleman being closer to those guys from a refinement standpoint than the Burks or Toney types. To be clear, all of my data comes from watching and charting film.
@@MattHarmonRP I know it does and I think I just didn’t articulate that the way I meant to - you are charting using the film, and that creates a statistical profile. That profile reflects what happened, but not always how it happened. I can see how Burks and Coleman might emerge with some similarities in terms of their statistical profile, but the way they move, how they understand leverage, their levels of refinement, are all quite different. And that might not be apparent from the data…no shade
Great vid. What do you think world be some ideal landing spots for Coleman?
Great work, Matt.
Thanks for the shoutout Matt! I love to evaluate your data.
Man, why didnˋt I find your channel before?! I absolutley love these kind of analytics! Do you have data which WR type leads to the most points in fantasy? Greetings from Germany ❤
Great analysis. On the route tree, if there's a way to combine the pct tried vs success by having them overlap, that could be helpful. Length could indicate pct tried and color could indicate success.
Awesome perception!!! Saw you on my two favorite podcasts and both raved about you. I just subscribed, liked and shared this.
Not sure what the Bills are doing. They’re bringing in a lot of tall WRs but Josh got better when they got guys that separated from coverage. They should have learned from their mistakes with the Panthers but instead brought Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo and forced him upon the QBs. Tyrod refused to throw to him and was benched. Nathan Peterman threw to him and he was consistently beaten to the catch point, so Bills fans still hate Nathan as the balls were intercepted. Luckily they got rid of Kelvin shortly after Josh became the starter.
Great video, if only every team could utilize their talented players correctly
As a Bills fan, I really wonder if our coaching staff understands this. It would appear not since we already have Shakir and Samuel.
What do you think? Considering how hard it is to make it to NFL, not to mention finding successes at a high level for a good stretch, I bet these guys have looked into lots of metrics and how the players can fit their system. Of course not everything would pan out as planned but that's just the nature of the beast. We'll have to wait and see!
@davidhatran3160 I stated what I think lol in fact I'm sure because Beane has stated he sees Coleman as an X
Of course they don't understand because they never got your sage advice.
They're a professional football team with more resources than CZcams. Is that a serious question? They said worse when we drafted Josh. Seems they know what they're doing
@@jeremygiglia4824 never said I don't like the pick or Coleman, just asked a question... should I run it by you next time before posting? I wouldn't want to upset you
@@NeilTo30 Wouldn't it be fun if we could ask BB these questions to understand the Pros' thought processes? Speaking of being pro, it IS crazy hard to make it to NFL, considering how hard it already is to even make a University's varsity team and then my guess is only 100-150 of these elite kids survived (beyond the initial draft) every year to the NFL. And then Bills made the top 4 AFC in the last 4 years so BB and SM deserved a lot of credit and our trust here. Sometimes it's just hard/unlucky when you are in the same time + conference with a dynasty run.
In a NFL game how much is a D in press man vs zone, I'm not a coach or an OC but most teams play 2 high zone against the Bills. Coleman excels on running hitch and double hitch routes, something the Bills want him to do. He plays the WR position like a power forward and has the body control to pull it off plus his hands are like glue.. He doesn't have elite speed but he's not slow and really how many CB's have elite speed. 40 time is a combine thing but there is also game speed.
I found it interesting that WanDale was so low for separation in college but was #1 in separation in the NFL for the 2023 season
How different is the role Rice plays as a power slot vs what Kelce plays
How do the success rates compare for the good route runners you track from college?
you can compare them side by side here: receptionperception.com/college-sortable-data-2024/
My notes on him.
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I believe the Bills will give him the X role, maybe they give up on it later on if it fails badly with Coleman not being able to stretch down the field with separation. Good to know what to watch for, cheers mate, great content. Go Bills.
What would be some of the best teams for him to go to given this specific role he should fill?
I keep coming back to Cincy as an option in Round 2. Immediate Boyd replacement and could move up a spot to the long-term No. 2 if/when Tee moves on
I read some take somewhere suggesting that Keon Coleman could succeed on the outside as a contested catch WR if he has an accurate QB throwing to him, kind of like Kenny Golladay with Matt Stafford. Do we think there's any truth to that?
Matt Waldman and that’s absolutely true.
I think Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison may have watched this video. They made one saying the Keon Coleman separation issue is nonsense.
Ardarius Stewart and Charon Peake, Jets Legends
It seems to me that the Bills fell in love with this players personality, we will see what happens. Allen can also throw receivers open, not all receivers get the chance to play with a qb like that.
Most WRs have to play some slot to be a good fantasy receiver. This is why I believe Calvin Ridley wasnt great in Jville last year, and will be much better in Tenn. He was strictly outside in Jville and didnt get the layup targets like Kirk and Engram. Tenn paud him and has already said they will move him all around the formation.
If he gets drafted and plays the slot, could we see a similarity to Michael Thomas? Both 6’3, 213lbs. Both have good hands and fit that power slot mold.
Michael Thomas is a great route runner
Michael Thomas is not a slot receiver.
@@thesedaze2381Thomas is a big slot, just like Colston was.
@@jjmadoublen7375 According to metrics Thomas was in the slot 20% of the time. That means 80% he was not in the slot meaning he is not a slot receiver. Colston was a slot receiver for good reason. Lack of athleticism and ball skills.
I was out on Coleman before this video, but if he lands in the 3rd round of my rookie draft (won't take at 2.01) I would consider him for my taxi.
Ok casual
Jerry Rice ran the same 40 time.
TLDR: odds he won't be great unless he goes to a team that'll play him in the slot.
Agreed. I think he makes sense for a team like Miami, in what they were trying to get out of Chase Claypool. Basically another TE/Big slot type, that gets constant 1v1s due to the attention WRs like Hill and waddle will be garnering.
@@zackhurwitz9441how do you think he''ll do in Buffalo?
Tldw
He’s not a slot receiver
@@evancahoon2937 he's not good enough to be outside according to the stats so he'll need to play slot. Going to Buffalo he'll play outside so I'm out on him.
This hurts. GO BILLS!
You should add more colors to the route chart… otherwise it skews perception
What do you think more colors would do? Daaaa, screw it even more
So basically if Keon does a majority slot role, chances for success good.
I pause cause Gabe Davis, how comparable is he to Coleman. Gabe to me seem misused in buffalo and had varied results.
Keon coleman struggling vs press?? Maybe off man when trying to win deep but he never gets jammed. There may be other things ur seeing I didn’t consider it’s hard to measure success vs a non separator type so idk look at mike williams for example. I’m curious. He’s also so new to the sport and the youngest wr in this class if he just eliminates some of the false steps he can become a more consistent vertical threat. He uses too many basketball moves. I think Mike williams and tee higgins are perfect example of winning deep w out separation
Tee Higgins has actually got some pretty good charted separation during his career
So what does this mean for someone like Roman Wilson, who can't get open but already takes the majority of snaps from the slot? Is he just doomed?
At least it means coaches already see him in the role he needs to be, you're not hoping for an alignment change when he gets to the NFL level
He ran a 4.6 where people are bashing Polk for running a 4.52
Buffalo drafted him after losing both outside receivers during the offseason. Will be interesting to see what they do with Coleman. They already have a couple other guys who would be good slot receivers in Shakir and Curtis Samuel. I don't see Coleman having success on the outside
Maybe try watching tape and understand what u are looking at
His separation is trash but he has a lot of great TD catches when smothered. A good QB will help a lot
Honestly just use him as a receiving tight end
When charting I think your model and just bias of liking bigger separators has blinded a bit. It’s how people like college/early George Pickens, Courtland Sutton, Terry McClauren and our guy Keon Coleman are winning but might not be sticking out or might even show up more negative. The way they create separation is good enough for accurate QB’s so landing spot definitely matters a bit more because they need an accurate or Aggresive QB. We’ll see because Keon went to an absolutely perfect situation to either prove this inability/bias/hole or not. Will be interesting for sure.
I am of the camp that Keon Coleman can ball isn’t just a slot guy and his separation is good enough to excel in the NFL.
FWIW I have not found any significant relationship between size and Reception Perception results. So I disagree with your stance about a bias. Coleman can develop and be fine, Sutton might not be a bad comp from an outside WR perspective.
@@MattHarmonRP apologies bigger separator’s being not the size of player and instead a size of amount of separation they get. Meaning players that get more separation from a technique and athletic profile are favored over someone who gets open just enough at the right moment and “win” the ball to be a viable option for a quarterback. I’m curious as to your process on grading separation. Great work as always.
Burks should just turn into a receiving back. 😳😳😳🤷♂️
Well not atp because of Pollard and Spears. But if they didn’t sign Pollard I would have been down to see that.
Buffalo said here is our X
i have been consistently swinging and missing on rookie WR's. I NEED YOU MATT. Have more players than I'd like to admit apart of that list :/
Go for separators not that hard
I can see him going to my Ravens at 30.
Coleman reminds me of fellow FSU alum Anquan Boldin...
Why do I get Kelvin Benjamin vibes from Coleman? Benjamin was much heavier but I think they both win the same ways.
age and poor QB performance are my excuses for coleman. I think he can be a true X
Here come the haters 🙄 Buffalo will be just fine with him in our system, don’t forget we have Kincaid,plus cook, and Shakir. Y’all not thinking on a bigger spectrum there’s no I in team and that’s why y’all so stuck on diggs.
So Buffalo now has four slot receivers in Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid.
Coleman is an X, Shakir is a flanker, Kincaid is a Tight end and Samuel is a slot. There fixed it for you.
All this SEPARATOR talk is a new draft nerd word...Keon Coleman has great short area quickness and has good feet and showed he could seperarte on some routes..He is not Nekeal Harry. Coleman has way more short area quickness..Being a great seperator dosent guarantee success..Im not sure if you played WR..Its about Strong Hands, Rac and playing fast and strong..This whole Keon cant separate is a false narrative..Keon Coleman is raw at running routes..He has great feet he will become a better route runner...You guys love Ladd MccConkey because he is a SEPERATOR but are his hands strong? Ladd mccConkey is overrated - injury prone, low production,bad back and slight frame..How is Ladd mccConkey gonna hold up????? Keon Coleman will be a top 4 wr from this draft class.
Good insight
Right it's basically technique. Keenan Allen isn't fast but has great technique.
Separation may be a concern due to his size. A lot of this big body WR’s have problems getting room at the next level. The question is if Keon’s bag and route package is big enough to get to his spots?
I say YES, because he’s going to be playing backyard football with JA & won’t be confined to running scheme routes like he would for a team like the Rams.
Great insight.
I mean… harmon basically said this, just basically pointed out it leads to two roles: a volatile deep threat (christian watson, will fuller) or a big-bodied slot guy (cooper kupp, rashee rice, amon-ra st. brown). harmon touches on his hands being elite and it bolsters his profile as an off-ball slot. he even denies that he’s a bad route runner, as the film shows him consistently beating zone. harmon doesn’t comp him with n’keal harry, he comps with rashee rice. no one’s saying “he can’t separate he has no role in the league.” they’re just saying he’s not a pure x man/press beater.
ANY WEAKNESS WILL BE IMPROVED BY BILLS COACHING STAFF!
Not my favorite probably yours 😂😂😂😂
Meh...give him a chance
Fake WR or Fake Mustache?
It really makes you wonder what these college coaches do to earn these taxpayer funded salaries, seeing as WR don't run quality routes and QBs need coaching on just the building blocks of playing the position
Explain how a college coach is paid via tax payers funds. As if football programs don't make $? At least at school where coach are getting big bucks?