Rail Baltica Update: 4+ Years Late, 300% Over-Budget!
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- čas přidán 9. 09. 2024
- In April 2023 I made a video introducing people to the mega infrastructure project known as Rail Baltica. This future high-speed rail network will change how people in Lithuania get to Poland and to Latvia and on to Estonia. It also opens up more opportunities for connecting to other parts of Europe. As I noted in last year’s video, part of Rail Baltica should have been operational THIS year, but things have been pushed back to 2030.
So in today’s video I wanted to look at the latest news about this project mostly within LIthuania, and some of the recent hurdles and challenges for the program!
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When world famous Japanese Tōkaidō high speed rail was first being built it encountered so many problems, including financial difficulties and delays there was real pressure from Japanese politicians just to abort the project completely, but thankfully the head of project Shinji Sogō resisted. At one point he even kept estimated cost figures of the Tōkaidō high speed railway deliberately low in fear that they were too high for the Japanese Government and World Bank (providing massive loans). Eventually he resigned, but the project managed to be completed.
I think such stories only show that nothing is easy and we should always be pragmatic in our approach to infrastructure development while fully tackling challenges along the way.
You must be kidding me. This is a boring railway line. Reason for the delay and the cost overrun that will be foot by rich EU taxpayers is CORRUPTION.
@@etbadaboum
This isn't "boring" line in the slightest. It's the biggest and most modern railway infrastructure project in the Baltic states since independence that requires not only enormous planning and budget, but also effective inter-state cooperation. I'm not saying it doesn't have any problems (it has), but just shouting corruption without clear evidence isn't helping neither the project nor anyone in particular.
@@eruno_ I say CORRUPTION precisely because I know more than you on the project, get some knowledge instead of shouting in the void
@@etbadaboum
If you know specific cases of clear corruption that is investigated by prosecutor office or any institutions I would be curious to know about it. Lithuanian media likes to take every opportunity to complain about the project (despite the fact that their knowledge of it is significantly limited) so I imagine it would have reported on it pretty widely. Feel free to share. ☺️🙏
ps. I noticed in your comments that you don't approve this critical project in general. I don't want to assume the worst, but I hope you're not on Kremlin's paycheck to spread disinformation. Your channel even has a lot of videos of one specific person who is known for praising Putin...
@@etbadaboum I don't think you know what corruption is.
As someone who is deeply interested in railways and has been following this project right from the beginning, I feel I should comment on this topic.
The "over budget" statement often floated in the media needs some clarification. The original price tag of 5.8bn Eur was absolutely unrealistic and I would go as far as saying nonsensical and absurd. This would have made the price per kilometre approximately 6.6 million Eur which is simply not possible. A quick Google search will confirm that even as early as ~2010 (i.e. 14 years ago) one km of HSR track would cost anything between 15 to 40 million Eur to build in various countries frorm Spain to China. A somewhat realistic estimate for Lithuania would have been ~20 million back then, and after the inflation, Covid and Ukraine war considerations, it's probably somewhere in the range of 25-30 million per 1km right now (i.e. total of 21-25 bn Eur) . Either way, it's absolutely NOT 6.6 million per 1 km, not now, not 15 years ago and it really isn't difficult to figure this out. One of the reasons why claims like this get floated is partially due to lack of proper media coverage and investigation. Journalists usually haven't got much, if any, knowledge or understanding about railway projects. It's hard to tell why, but they're just not good at it. So that original price tag of 5.8 bn was simply a dreadfully wrong estimate by whoever made it back in the day.
As for current state of Rail Baltica, it doesn't look too good. Most parts of the project are notoriously late, including objects like the 1.5km long Jonava bridge which should have been standing by now, but is still in initial phases of construction. No explanations are provided either by the government or companies that are involved, besides some vague generic statements about the "complexity" of the project (not true, btw, because it's one of the easiest railways to build). The Kaunas-Vilnius section is under a question mark and there is a very good chance it will get put on hold or even cancelled altogether which, of course, would be a disaster for Lithuania and Vilnius. I still hope for the best though. This project is too important and too big to fail for all 3 Baltic countries and I wish our politicians and the general society were more aware.
The situation is much better in Estonia. Our cost per km is the cheapest at around 18 mil €/km, while lithuania is at 26 mil/km and latvia at 36 mil €/km. Estonia also doesn't have these time problems as much as Latvia and Lithuania. Planning of one section of railroad has been delayed due to Natura 2000 areas being in the way and thus the route being changed but other than that, the project has been going relatively smoothly.
@@Martin-wx8gd Are you sure about that? Didn't Estonia scale down RB to single-track instead of planned double-track?
Yea I'm pretty sure that the current plans are for single-track, but even then, 18 mil means that most of the required infrastructure will already be there when the second track is going to be built, thus lowering the cost
@@Martin-wx8gdHave you got some sources? I've read on the website that Estonia will be the last to complete the track and connect.
@@nonamespecified Scaling down a double-track to single-track is a VERY big deal and is in no way indicative of a "smooth" going project. If anything, it's a rather desperate last resort type of measure.
As someone who actually has been involved in this project at an early stage and work in large scale AEC, I can say that the project price was not realistic at all, had impossible requirements for contractors and schedule. But this happens very often in AEC field, because you must sell the project to public, investors and government to even have a chance at building something like this. Sad but that is the reality.
The "over budget trick" is standard for infrastructure in General, just a political trick to get it initially approved.
I am shocked that people are still surprised by this.
taking a bus to Riga from Tallinn is soo bad and tiresome that I havent been to Riga for years. Just cant be bothered to be 5 hours on a bus
Yeah I took one from Vilnius-Tallin last year. It was so uncomfortable and tiring that I just drove a citybee back instead. This can't come a minute too soon
@@Alex-kw8zp Why not a plane? The cost is practically the same. By train, if the project goes ahead, Tallinn-Vilnius no less than 8 hours.
@@AldisjanisWould have - but during that time there were no flights on that day, nor the next. So Citybee was the best option. Usually do fly, AirBaltic is lovely
Starting this year there's a daily train from Vilnius to Riga again. I've heard it's actually quite popular.
@@Aldisjanis 8 hours? Where did you get that from? 7 is by car. I searched it and it said 3h 38 mins
Honestly 300% over budget is still a crazy-low price for high speed rail, comparing to other projects around the world Rail Baltica still has a very low price/km.
As for Latvian and Estonian approach of building the stations before building the track, I probably agree that it was the right decision. Vilnius also has a project for a brand new station in place of the current one but it isn't under the scope of Rail Baltica and won't be getting EU financing which means that it almost certainly won't get built. There is no way in the world Vilnius or even National government would find ~500 million Eur (my cost estimate of the new station) for a station. Riga and Tallinn will have the stations built first and tracks will get built one way or another, since EU won't just cancel such an important strategic project. That's smart play by Latvia and Estonia. Of course we'll have to wait and see if it will pay off. I believe it will.
LT part is planning to build/finance station via PPP, its hard, but doable
It's not right decision. Budget excession spent on stations will have influence on line. Right now they are planning single track line which will reduce line capacity which equals small amount of trains
@@vaaze. EU will almost certainly increase financing to the line too. At the end, Latvia and Estonia will have both: the line and the stations. Lithuania will have only the line.
Estonia is NOT building the station first. It is building the substructure of the station first, so that new 1520 tracks could be laid, freeing room for the new 1435 tracks, and ensure the more-or-less seamless continuation of the current passenger service.
Estonia is building viaducts, ecoducts and bridges first, followed by the track base.
There are also plans to connect Vilnius and Klaipėda by standard rail which would allow to reach seaside in 2 hours or even less. Of course this rout is not a part of Rail Baltica, it is a further development and a local extension.
That would be a game changer
Standard rail is 1435 mm. So this broad line will not be standard.
I am surprised that Baltics want to invest in broad gauge lines. It is wasting of money.
@@robertab929it will be. They are building 1435mm gauge.
Living in Riga, can't wait for it to be built probably it won't be done this decade. Reading through the audit does show that it's a huge project with many moving parts.
They better boost military budgets and cut social spending. For this decisions are made quick and implemented even quicker.
I’m hoping that Poland builds its part… There’s still around 100 km from Białystok to Lithuanian border. I’m not sure if this line is even electrified.
I was really wanting an update on this subject so awesome video and timing! Great work as always.
As a Pole living in Finland, I can't wait for this project to finish. Good to get an update on the situation!
At least there is progress.
In Estonia the project is going decently apart from the budget issues, although even these are much less of a problem here. Our cost per km is the cheapest at around 18 mil €/km, while lithuania is at 26 mil/km and latvia at 36 mil €/km. By the way, by the end of this year half of the main route (about 105km) will have construction being done on it in Estonia and over 30 km is being built already. It seems that the Lithuanian guy is a bit behind on his news.
Got an article or source where I could read about this? Thanks
There just was a new construction contract signed to have all of Harju County's section main track to be built.
Estonia starts to build first sections of railway track this year, so its not entirely true that we "focus only on stations".
He never said "only" he said "more"
@@adishoogendorp4194 He was still wrong. Actually, Estonia is currently focused mainly on viaducts (overpasses and underpasses) and ecoducts, not stations. He confused Estonia with Latvia. The ongoing works on the Ülemiste terminal are to ensure the bare minimum for the provision of broad gauge service to Tartu and Narva, since it passes through it. 25% of 217 km is covered with construction contracts, and more to come this year. The revised southern track section from Pärnu to the Latvian border just got approved. It is fairly possible that Tallinn-Pärnu will be ready for service in 2028 and the rest by 2030. Although, Rail Baltic should start thinking of the trains really soon, because tenders and production takes time.
That was an amazing and comprehensive update. Ačiū
Worth noting the work on some parts of the railway track in Latvia has started. However, indeed the focus is on the main stations rather than the tracks. Latvia’s argument for this priority is that stations take the most time to build. According to LV, once they are built, laying out the track would be a quick job and when that happens, the Lithuania’s progress would slow down as they’d be busy working on the stations which take more time to complete.
At least the excecutive didn't lose 40 million euro while gambling
Amazingly the estimate was that it would cost 1/4 the price of what it would cost in the west to build even simpler networks and this is even bigger project than those
Compare the orography of the Baltics to that of Spain
There is no way it is going to be finished in 2030... hope for 2034
As a german, who have relatives in latvia i cant wait for this railway to be build.
Living in Warsaw, this project connecting Warsaw with Baltic states is a part of much bigger Project named ,,centralny port komunikacyjny" the idea is to connect Poland and Baltic states into one high speed railway system with main point in Baranów, 40km west to Warsaw. New airport with railway and bus stations under it will make long distance flights easier than it is now. It means I could get to riga in few hours by train instead of taking a flight
Rail Baltica was planned way earlier than CPK, but it still will connect. Sadly from the start of the CPK project, the branch to Białystok/Lithuania was planned only for 160 and 200 km/h, while the rest of network was mainly planned for 250 km/h
@@kakiremora2991 it's even more complicated. There is already a 220km/h line between Warsaw and southern Poland. Previous government was planning a shortcut between Warsaw and Ełk. I have even more bad new for You. Present ,,Polish" government decided to not develop eastern Poland and treat it like place for controntation with russia. They are focused on connections with Germany
I don't really consider visiting the Baltics if they don't have a train connection to Poland.
I looked into traveling there 2 years ago and realized I could spend the same amount of time and money traveling in central Europe,
without having to take a bus, so instead I visited Czechia and Slovakia.
Thankyou so much for the update. Nice Video
Nice video!
The Polish section is also severely delayed:
the Białystok - Warsaw section is only partially nearing completion, while the Czyżew - Białystok section is already being built for 200km/h, the previously modernized Czyżew - Warsaw section will be limited to 160kmh bc they opted to cut costs and didn't build any 2 level crossings. The whole section is now 3 years late
according to the original schedules the Białystok - Ełk section should completed by now, yet it's still stuck in environmental review with pledges by the minister of infrastructure that the tender will be announced by the end of the year, and completed by 2028
ełk - suwałki - pl/lt border section is still stuck in the planning stage! by now we should at least have a finished construction project, but we're still stuck in variant analysis...
But you can use 1435 track between Trakiszki and Białystok already. Slower but still on 1435 mm tracks. You can also go to any city using the same type of track.
On other side, Estonia is renewing broad gauge tracks between Tallin and Tartu. This is really waste of money.
@@robertab929 ??? what's your point? the current line from suwalki to trakiszki has existed since early 1900s, and is actively used for cargo and 1 daily passenger train
railbaltica isn't planned to go via Tartu, but Parnu so how is improving track quality **now** a waste of money?
@@___lzcat Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania should change gauge from 1520 to 1435 on lines which undergo renovation. To have only one gauge in their countries.
@@robertab929 and how do you imagine that happening? the line to tartu should just become isolated from the entirety of the network? and what trains would run on those tracks? what about the width of the trains and platforms?
you can't convert the entire network overnight, and the only way i see it is gradual upgrades after the main line(rail baltica) is finished
@@___lzcat Skrajnia kolejowa na liniach normalnotorowych może być dalej utrzymywana jak dla toru szerokiego. Skrajnia tuneli jak dla toru szerokiego.
Pociągi można kupić takie, którym można zmienić wózki z szerokiego na normalny rozstaw. Estończycy mają dużo nowego taboru, ale w przyszłości mogą kupować tabor normalnotorowy, który będzie mógł przy zatrzymaniu wysuwać podesty na ich perony przystosowane do szerokiej skrajni.
Po 40 latach jak im sie zużyje szeroki tabor, przy okazji odnawiania stacji mogą przebudowywać ją na normalnotorową skrajnię.
Skoro w Estonii przebudowywali całą linię ze stolicy do Tartu to trzeba było od razu na całej linii zmienić rozstaw. I odciąć się od moSSkiewskiej pępowiny, która teraz i tak jest zawieszona.
Wbrew pozorom w takiej Estonii to nie jest trudne do zrobienia, bo to mały kraj. Trudniej w takiej Ukrainie.
W Estonii nie ma zbyt dużo węzłów kolejowych. W zasadzie Tallin, Tartu
This project is also a massive security project as well not just transport
I'd love to visit the Baltic capitals, and this HSR would make it incredibly convenient. 2030 is a long ways away, however.
Frankly, as long as it does what it should do and it’s delivered to spec, I think the price is less of an issue. These projects have strategic, continental impact and their price will be forgotten very quickly. Think eurostar, no one knows or cares what it costed, money is just money.
If it’s not to spec, however…
did you know that Liteuna has 1520mm track and rest of the europe include Poland has 1435mm
Well, lets be honest, estimates were done before covid pandemic AND russian invasion of Ukraine, both of which affected the project expenses in a MAJOR way...
Yes- these were mentioned in the video…
The proposed station "closer" to Panevėžys looks like it has barely any advantage over the station on the main Rail Baltica line. Surely there would be a way to build a link to the existing Panevėžys station?
I would say that the delay will be longer! No civil engineering works have been launched in Latvia on the main race. And the funny thing is, there is only one track. The Latvian base route does not include Riga and the Airport.
To me it seems like there's no strong authority figure to say a firm "no" to all of the deviations from original plan. But this is what needs to be done. I have only ever worked on software projects, but if I was in charge I would create a separate Phase 1 upgrade project and all of the additions would be not dropped, but put there.
I think that having many subcontractors is a nightmare. If you have ever tried to manage construction where like a drilling rig and concrete truck have to show up at the same time. Or a crane and a delivery truck... I don't know what situation is on Rail Baltica, but in Lithuania in general there are loads of very small firms (basically a guy with a truck). If you need to manage loads of them it's going to be difficult.
Ideally there would be a big construction company with loads of machinery that it owns, all of the machinery comes installed with same project management software (including navigation). But are not many companies like that in Lithuania. Public contracts usually favor those who lie best, not those who are the most competent.
great update thanks
There is already a regular speed train linking Riga and Vilnius. How's that going? I just saw it today.
it's slow and goes once a day
Does anybody know how realistic it is that Rail Baltica will stick with 249 km/h instead of 250 km/h? In Germany, Deutsche Bahn tried the same “trick” with its ICE 4 trains but in the end went with 250 km/h nevertheless (and even later changed that to 265 km/h, but that is another matter). For those wondering why, from 250 km/h onwards new, more expensive technical requirements arise according to European regulations.
249 makes ot so that certification of trains and Right Of Way is simpeler due to going above 249 km/h (250 km/h) classifies railways as high speed.
@@StefanWithTrains3222 Yes, but any sane engineer doing the safety inspection would then require safety measures to be introduced, so that the train can't breach 249km/h.
They have wanted to try this trick with just staying under the speed at which more speed is required multiple times in Germany, but everytime they opted to adjust the top speed, because it is easier to make sure the train is safe at slightly higher speeds, than it is to make sure the train will not exceed max. Operational speed when under normal operation, but during testing (as trains get tested for about 10% more top speed than they get rated for)
If you really want to talk over budget, check out the nightmare California high speed rail project.
similar distance, but the cost is $100B+
@@simas941 Don't forget the three mountain ranges to get through.
or HS2 in the UK
Rail Baltica and other projects which are supposed to close tie Baltic countries are 30 years late.
If you count how much oil is needed to be purchased from outside EU to run the amount of trucks from Poland to Baltics/Finland during a 5-10 year period if there was no rail. The project has already more paid itself back. Not to mention the construction euros largely remain inside EU as well as the future euros we don't need to pay to middle-east for oil to move trucks. Rail moves on domestically produced electricity, means cleaner climate and better interconnectivity inside the baltics, Poland and the nordics
It was never intended to open this year.
“Rail Baltica is a proposed high-speed line to link Helsinki with Berlin through the Baltic capitals by 2024.”
This Latvian article from 2015 shows that early expectations targeted 2024; eng.lsm.lv/article/society/society/new-details-about-rail-baltica-revealed.a152476/
@@LithuaniaExplained I think that ship sailed a long time ago. Construction only just getting started
Тем самым в России в этом году приступили к строительству Высокоскоростной железной дороги Москва - Санкт-Петербург. Поезда будут развивать скорость до 350 км/час и полностью российского производства. Первые поезда пойдут уже в 2028 году. Строительство уже началось. Дорогу уже вывели из Москвы. Учитесь.
The military expenditures are more important than rail projects, social projects, healthcare, you name it. Maybe 2040.
the railway is as important to the military as for the passengers. Lithuanian defence forces consider the project important for improving inter-mobility aka military deployment time.
HS2 - I'll take your 18 billion and raise it to cutting the route by 2/3's AND being 50+ billion over budget
Hello from Tallinn!
I have nothing to add 😅
The project is being a disaster.
I was in Riga the other day and even though the station in the city centre is well underway, tbey haven't even figured out if they'll be able to include it in the opening.
I wish they installed dual gauge track from Balti Jaam to Ülemiste but they don't seem to want this.
Baltic countries are wasting money on renewing broad-gauge railway. For example, on Tallin-Tartu line. It should be rebuild as 1435-mm line.
In Estonia alone, changing the whole network to 1435 would today cost at least 8 BILLION EUR and would totally halt the system for years, plus we would need to replace or rebuild the whole rolling stock. What comes to the Tartu line (which is single-track), the only feasible way would be building a new 1435 track adjacent to the current 1520 one and after switching to 1435 system, regauge the older track. In that way there would be minimal interruptions.
@@henrikmanitski1061 I am talking about switching to 1435 mm at the time when old tracks had to be replaced due to age. Unfortunately, a lot of money was already spend on infrastructure and trainsets.
@@robertab929 That would have meant years of no service. What a wonderful advertisement for rail travel and freight. Also, why hasn’t Finland done the thing you suggested?
@@henrikmanitski1061 Railway lines in Estonia are usually with single track. Section of it has to be closed during renovation works anyway. Bus connections needs to be made on closed sections anyway.
And What point of it if cost probably gonna be higher as in Germany - regular trains 100 km 35 eu, - ekspres 100 km 70 eu, I prefer buss 100 km 15 eu, Money Wash
Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia combined have less than 6 milion inhabitants, the project will at minimum cost 24 billion €.
Thats 3000€ per person.
did you sleep through the part where it connects to poland
So what?
Golden Rail Baltica🤣🤣🤣
Hello from Denmark, it is unacceptable to spend money like this. and no, it can be done within the framework. It requires better planning and a focus on modularity. 100 different stations, bridges, etc. are not necessary, a standard type that can be scaled up or down as needed. The constructions can then be decorated with regional art etc.
First number (6 bil) was bit unreal
The stations are somewhat standardised.
The initial budget was estimated like a decade ago, and it was unrealistic, not sure how AECOM or whoever did the estimate came up to that number. The current budget is still smaller than what China spends per kilometer and is 4x cheaper than what California spends.
In Riga we are building Baltic's Mega railway station + also station at Riga airport which will probably end up costing more than 2 billion and even when it's so expensive I know it's worthy
@@MoonEurovision You sure it's $2B? That would be excessive.
Wasting of money. To connect your country with Europe you need to buy in Spain TALGO trains with automatical change of gauge and upgrade the current system instead of constructing the new line incompatible with the existed national railway network.
Great video, terrible project
Hi from Estonia. Rail Baltica is cool, but it's shit. Late 4 YEARS, having to build right over small towns and villages (thankfully over, not right in the middle). They use our tax money to build. If Estonia doesn't continue, government gets fined. Full shitshow behind the scenes.
That will always be an issue with these types of projects... acquiring land and making a route that is straight enough to allow for high-speed trains.. And of course no one would want to give up land that their families have maybe owned for generations or see any kind of destruction of historic structures that might be in the pathway. :(
@@LithuaniaExplained Thankfully they are building bridges not a train track right in the middle.
You're talking BS.
If anything, the track does NOT go THROUGH or OVER small towns and villages, it is more on the outskirts of them, so it would go through as few private properties as possible and avoid Natura 2000 areas.
It is rather impossible to build such infrastructure WITHOUT tax money. 15% is paid by Estonian tax money, 85% of it is paid by the other EU countries' tax money (in a way).
Full shitshow is in Latvia, not in Estonia.
Should have called in China!
They would not have done it quicker or cheaper, because they would have been forced to build it to European requirements. Also, the Chinese are not known for building with maintenance in mind.
The more debt the better......
It will suck.
Rather build an autobahn that a railway
no
There isn't a Autobahn? That's surprising, they should, because Autobahns have more utility.
railway is more efficient and environmentally friendly than car infrastructure.
#failbaltic is a project of complete ignorance. The construction prices are easy to check in eash country and the effects of covid and russian terrorism have been only temporary. The initial cost estimate was simply bullocks, just like the CBA made by EY.
The latest CBA is yet another level of idiocracy.
Btw, trains have started service between Vilnius and Riga and will soon start service between Tartu and Riga on 1520 tracks. In Estonia the existing 1520 railways are upgraded for 160kph service and it is a lot more feasible and environmental friendly than the new alignment of RB.
I vote for stopping the nonsense and putting money where it delivers value for the people instantly.
I’m not surprised. Money laundering is still a very big issue.
Hello from Tallinn!
I have nothing to add 😅
The project is being a disaster.
I was in Riga the other day and even though the station in the city centre is well underway, tbey haven't even figured out if they'll be able to include it in the opening.
I wish they installed dual gauge track from Balti Jaam to Ülemiste but they don't seem to want this.