2nd Ukraine Offensive coming! Ukraine War Situation Report
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- čas přidán 10. 09. 2024
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With a Masters in Arts, Tortsen's brain can't comprehend basic Algebra and, more importantly, an idiot for disparaging Ukraine's Kursk offensive on day 1.
Any weak spot attacked diverts resources from elsewhere...Crimea is one due to geographic reasons and it would be better to hit military bases than kerch bridge that could be repaired sooner or later ...
Ukraine has drones with thermal cameras to discover military targets clearly at night according to some sources online ...
It's a Good Move by Ukraine, Forcing Russia to Permanently put more Forces on their Border, tying up Troops, all while Gaining Russian Territory, and if Russia decides to put to much Forces against the Ukrainian Incursion, and Forces Ukraine to Pull Out or Really Fight for that Land, it takes more Forces away from other places leaving Vulnerabilities, to even a more Mobile Ukrainian Forces like the exact ones who did this Assault into Russia, in Theory can Redeploy faster to another Attack... Why it's a Good Move, Russia is in a Damned if we do, damned if we don't Situation, and showed Russia stretched itself so far it's let it's Soft Under Belly Exposed, which is a Moral Boost for Ukraine also, and Hurts Russian Moral, but more than that it shows Ukraine's Investors in this War that it's Worth Further Investing, and Russia's Investors like North Korea how this might not be the Best Bet. Also it shows Russia's potential Weakness to China, and Russia's own Weakness to themselves, thus leading Russia to surely have more Sentiments to wrapping this thing up, before it gets even more Embarrassing, as more Russia Equipment gets Destroyed, making Russia Ripe for Dissidents and Secessions out of the Russian Federation, and any one else, like China eyeing Russia's Vast East... Such a Telling Attack, which tells us all so much in so many ways, and exposes Russia and just how Stretched it is...
If Ukraine does launch a 2nd offensive on the southern front, it would almost have to be from Kamianske to Vasylivka if Crimea is the goal. Having the dnieper on the flank would actually simplify logistics and defense, though it would be a gamble. The entire Tokmak to Berdiansk corridor of the 2023 "Counteroffensive" is a heavily prepared soviet defense in depth. The AFU would never be able to protect lines of supply in such a long and narrow offensive.
Years of defense, last year they tried a south offense. This year flip the script. I commend the Ukrainian's..
Last years offensive if succeed will flip the table. But this kursk incursion is not THE offensive, its just an incursion to create chaos among the complacent border guard of russia and make them scramble for reserves. Ukraine knows from the start that they cant hold kursk even if they hold all the logistical points, they know if they sit still and have the front stabilized, russia is gonna bleed them bit by bit using FAB bombs, artillery, and MLRS just like what happened in krinky. The result of this operation is not to conquer kursk but to make russian offensive have lesser numbers since their reserves will be used to guard the border more tightly than before.and spend more resources to 24/7 watch for activities along the border. The impact of this incursion is small if compared to the scale of the significance of the 2023 sadly failed summer offensive, 2022 luhansk counter offensive, 2023 Kherson counter offensive
*Ukrainians
@@B.D.E. he's saying "the Ukrainians" because of the grammar requirements of the sentence, it's not the same as referring to Ukraine as "The Ukraine"
I watch several Ukraine platforms and you are one of if not the best one I have seen. You tell it the way it is and don’t sugar coat it. I l’m pulling for the great people of Ukraine and truly appreciate knowing what is really transpiring . Great Job! Thank you !
Yeah too many other channels cherry pick only the good news, magnifying them a lot, and tend to sweep any losses under the rug. Or, when the bad news can't be fully ignored / kept silent, then those channels try to minimize the bad news and spin them in a positive fashion instead. That reeks of bias, and that is really no better at all than the news from putler's state controlled medias.
❤❤❤
They are all just speculating and using each other as sources and all fed by Russian and Ukrainian intelligence.
Take everything on social media with a huge sack of salt.
yea the talking heads like the draft dodger pilot denys are lame and pathetic know nothings
I operated the Patriot system from 2006-2011. It looks like they only hit the launcher. The radar and ECS are the real valuable pieces.
All of it is important when you have a very limited amount of them.
Check the news I believe they lost 5 Patriot launchers this week in total and Iris-T
@@gags730 Agreed, any loss hurts.
But it's also unavoidable in near peer conflict and unrealistic to expect it not to happen.
@@gags730 If you take out the radar, ECS, EPP, or AMG, you take out the entire Patriot battery. That was my point.
@@dustin66896 I am not disputing your point. I agree 100% with it.
@whatilearnttoday5295 Oh look, we have a weapons-grade dummy in the chat.
I urge all to step up support for Ukraine. We are entering the pivotal point of the war. Please do what you can to help Ukraine. Thank you !
the coward usa administration is preventing nato allies from sending long range weapons. disgusting cowards
Ukraine doing what it does best..confusing the hell out of Putin. 😂😂
He is utterly confused as to why Ukraine is just sacrificing columns of western weapons after babysitting them for years.
@@potatoman8194 Putin is destroying russian arsenal as well, even more, honestly i don't see your point. It's an attrition
@@UricHuntThe world laughs at Russia. They are surrendering inside their own country instead of fighting or retreating. Russia lost this war because Russians know they are fighting for nothing.
@@marcotorelli7026 that's the problem. It was reported earlier this year that Russia was back up to pre-war military strength.
And they cleverly used old equipment from other friendly countries to save the new production equipment and stockpile it a bit more.
Ukraine doesn't make any of its shells, planes, guns, tanks... the only thing you really see made in Ukraine is IPVs.
@@UricHunt The world laughs at how little you know.
Ukraine had diverted those troops up north for a possible incursion coming from Belarus.
When that didn't happen, they decided to use
that small portion of their forces (fewer than 10.000 men) to throw the Russians off balance.
Considering the panic & embarrassment they have caused in Russia,
I'd say it was well worth the effort. What might be even more valuable in the long run,
they gave your average Russian a little taste of, how bad it feels to have your Country invaded.
One hopes it'll make them think a little harder about what Russia is doing to "restore the Empire".
One source, is not enough to paint a picture. There are ample sources showing UKR is rotating units out of the East and South on a regular basis to take those new troops and integrate them into existing units to fill loses instead of just building brand new inexperienced units and sending them to die. This way those with combat experience, can share a wealth of knowledge with the new troops during a refit and rebuild phase before being rotated back onto the line. RU on the other hand is not rotating units, and is forming entire units of brand new troops with almost zero experience and rushing them to the front to die in droves.
Makes sense to me
Yep, best to sample a wide spectrum of media, from pro-Russia at one extreme to pro-Ukraine at the other extreme.
A decently accurate view will emerge somewhere in between.
Funny. Most sources say the same about Ukraine.
More offensives?! Wow, they really fooled us all with their OpSec!
Correction on JASSM. AGM-158A is the version under discussion for Ukraine, approximately 7500 of which have been produced for the US.
The 2000 number refers to the JASSM-ER (AGM-158B), which is not under discussion for Ukraine.
JASSM-XR (AGM-158B-2) are also now in production, with approximately 500 examples having been procured in the last 2 years.
LRASM (AGM-158C) for the US Navy is also in production, with approximately 3000 having been procured thus far.
Procurement & production quantities of AGM-158B, AGM-158B-2 & AGM-158C are all being increased substantially.
AGM-158A are rapidly becoming excess to need for the US, hence the reason why they are now under consideration for transfer to Ukraine.
Similarly, with PrSM missiles now being delivered, ATACMS missiles are likewise becoming excess to need for the US, with numbers available for transfer to Ukraine coinciding with new PrSM deliveries to the US.
Nice
Thanks for that!
In any case it is dubious the US is going to risk a major weapon system in a non-critical war (for the US), even if it's not the ER version. Seems many, but is obvious that in a high intensity conflict the US will also have rely also on on the stock of those more numerous initial version. There have been limited sales to a few of the so called 1st tier allies. In EU: PL and FI have bet on this system. Even its successful initial use, the collection of debris would allow the enemy to fill in the puzzle, eventually degrading the system. This is something that always happens in a conflict, for both sides. So don't think, neither USAF, nor PL and FI would be happy on this.
Your day 2 analysis of the Kursk incursion was correct!
Agree! Our US politicians, Pentagon policy not allowing Ukraine to use long range ATACMS or any other long range weapon against Russia is outrageous! Completely irrational thinking on any level?! Slava Ukraine!
@@beachcomber2328 Understood, (national / “imperial strategies” & foreign policies, etc.)? Why else would Biden’s Administration ask Ukraine to not bomb Russia’s oil / gas plants and of course it goes on & on, (i.e. Vietnam, Middle East, Iran, Afghanistan, etc., etc.)? Respectfully: I’m not missing anything beyond wanting to believe in something good & decent with some notion and measure of truth? But, the truth is, I don’t think that’s possible anymore?
Do you know how many Americans starve to death last year? Not how many experienced food insecurity, not how many were hospitalized due to starvation, but how many actually died in the United States from starvation?
You can check the cdc, or the NIH it's over half a million. Those numbers are not including the roughly 200,000 uncounted young humans that starved to death because they were homeless in the way the counting works if you don't have a home in the United States you don't go on all of the statistics.
Anyone can verify this by going to the CDC morbidity and mortality reports. They can also go to the NIH that is the national institute of Health for the United States government.
What the United States politicians need to do is start taking better care of its citizens before we decide to follow the advice of the Constitution of the United States in the declaration of independence.
@gssbcvegancat2345 Without foreign French and Spanish aid, you would still swear loyalty to the crown of England.
Americans better than most must know to help other democratic nations under attack.
And the poverty and starvation in the US is not because of aid to Ukraine, it's because of the US oligarchy and the distribution of wealth.
The true purpose of the restriction could be to lure Russia into a false sense of security like we have seen done before with other restrictions. It could also be to give strategic cover for why they are used in crimea, making Russia think it’s not actually a softening tactic. Who knows, either way we know we don’t have all the information to make a judgment on the issue.
Whether we like it or not the West is involved in the Ukraine Russia war but they cannot be drawn into a full scale head to head with Russia. Ukraine is not yet a NATO ally so to provide them with weapons that will be used on foreign soil is just about declaring war with Russia, the West does not want to be at war !
It's one thing to provide arms to a country to defend itself from invasion but if Ukraine is allowed to send US long range weapons to Moscow, St Petersburg and other Russian cities it is an act of war by the US (and NATO), the goal is for peace not war !
Highly respect your work.. always objective keeping everything real.. God bless Ukraine 🇺🇦 and grant them victory... from Singapore 🇸🇬
of all of the noise in media, you choose careful arguments. I like it!
Thanks. I wish the UA can turn things around and put Putin in his place>
Putin is already put he don't feel so invisible anymore I bet you when this is all over his neighbors will be living in peace
Dreams are free...
@@doublehelix7880 And those who make their dreams come true are admirable.
@@johncheresna putin was already put in his place
Putain already soiled his pants
*As an American Republican who has supported Ukraine’s sovereignty since literally Day 1 of all this beginning…. I just want you to know, I truly appreciate you telling us the facts as they are without it being frosted with constant Prop.*
I can’t even watch
I can’t even watch Denys Davidov anymore because he legit just is a psych op for the entire West at this point.
I only like to hear Artur and you.
You two are the legit only 2 dudes on he left that I can even hope to trust at this point.
Truly my brother, may the Gods bless you and your loved ones for all you do to inform us here in the UsA
Let me know how is best to donate to you also. I am finally doing alright with money(this administration and inflation just been making life so hard the past 3 years)
You deserve to be a lot bigger than you are but I do think you will get the numbers soon. I can feel it in my soul, no joke.
Brother…. Please…. For the love of all that is good in life….. do *NOT* change your ways of reporting just because someone offers you a certain something soon.
I trust you more than any other channel to tell me how it is, as it is, based on the facts we are presented by both sides.
Never change in that manner or bros like me are gonna be done here like we are with Denys.
Hopefully you'll do the right thing in November, and vote to both preserve Ukraine as well as American democracy.
The narcissist and his Christofascist lackeys would love nothing more than throwing Ukraine straight under the bus (as well as implement the nightmare that is Project 2025).
yea, a cryin' shame the cowardly appeasers in the scarecrow biden administration have by their inaction and whining, caused this conflict to go on longer and unnecessary loss of many ukraine lives
It is a shame your Republican politicians are largely pro Putin.
@@nietzscheankant6984 American democracy, represented by a foreigner with not a drop of European blood who has a financial advisor from Black rock running the country who supports the genocide in Gaza and is responsible for the horrible economic performance. Betraying America sounds better than standing up and fighting for a broken institution that never should be allowed to exist again power should override money and we can learn from China how to govern for the next thousand years..
Thanks, Torsten.
Yep, 'Grazie', Tors and great reporting as ever! BTW, would be curious if there's a 'Plan B', in case Ukraine ever loses their _only_ supply line?
In Kursk, I think their target is an area bound by the Seym River, Korenovo, Sudzha and southwards to the boundary. This should be holdable with advantageous terrain.
Holdable for what? Russia will not participate in any negotiations before they are anihilated and/or kicked out.
Bravo your pills are working
Stracić 20 000 żołnierzy aby zdobyć kilkanaście wiosek zamieszkałych przez stare babki ? Tak to jest naprawdę sukces na miarę Ukrainy oraz NATO :D
@@marek5070cope bot
The only advantageous position in the current frontlines is sudzha only for its urban environment. The rest of ukraine kursk is just farms just off to the south of kursk hence why the offensive can be executed relatively in fast speed. Ukraine realistically cant make kursk a foothold, it has open terrain, no fortifications, flatlands, and is numerically outnumbered in all aspects like artillery, air superiority, infantry (russian reinforcements), armoured units and so on. Their only leverage of success of this offensive is suprise and the leverage itself gradually diminishing. Though my thoughts about this offensive is that not to hold kursk but to make russia learn from this suprise offensive by commiting more forces and reserves to defend the border rather than concentrating it for future offensives by russia. Pretty clever by syrsky, i muself didnt see it coming
Thank you Mr Heinrich
Herr Heinrich
So all "expert" analysts that never been at war, were wrong, that Ukraine Kursk offensive is waste of time and have no any point, where wrong. Glory to Ukraine, Thank you for the support of all free world.
so have you commanded men in war? its obviously far from clear if the kursk offensive will do anything in the long term. in my eyes it looks like a desperate last ditch attempt to shift the course of the war. the russian military is sluggish to react and sloppy, but they win through attrition and superior numbers. fancy western weapons arent enough to change that. i wish the ukrainians success, but i also want to be realistic. maybe i am wrong though. i hope so.
Perhaps the Ukrainians will use the offensive in Kursk to turn south toward Belgorod to expand the border and relieve pressure on Kharkive?
This is the first video of yours I've watched. I am massively impressed, and have now subscribed.
Ukraine has swept the Kinburn spit of Russian positions and knocked out the oil platform converted to air defense platform. That smells of something brewing in the south. I still expect Vuhledar to become pivotal if Ukraine does knock out the Kerch straight bridge & remaining ferries.
This analysis was too good that I would worry about the russians seeing this. Very logical conclusions with all evidence shown.
My guess is that there won't be another offensive towards the well-defended cherson and crimean region. Thanks for all the work you put into these situation reports, Torsten
Don’t think so I think they will take a part of Belgorod that is easily defendable from Ukraines side, if they see it likely that they will succeed in that.
After then, further north on the Ukraine/russian border.
Kherson and Crimea isn’t really good timing yet.
The other operations will pull forces further away from there.
But before doing an offensive in the south Ukraine need to have degraded russias defenses more, especially the AA defenses.
Also, they need more F-16 so that they atleast for some time can gain air superiority over the battle area, and can challenge it all the time if russia try to send in close air support or use glide bombs and missiles on the landing zones.
Taking the south and Crimea would be a huge win for Ukraine and might even make russia collapse or Putin fall from power.
But for now and the near future it’s simply to risky.
@@mwtrolle
True. I feel like if they could breakthrough in Zaporhizhia, Kherson becomes a lot more gettable. The river is strong obstacle for sides but if u come from the north, u could force Russia to pull further back from the river. Crimea, yeah that’s gonna tough no matter how u cut it.
Thanks for your report Torsten.
I' suggest you take a look at all the smaller combat boats, patrol boats etc that have been donated to Ukraine..
Thank you!
One of your most thorough videos. Thank you for your work.
Thank you for the report!
Finnaly a sober and neutral logical assestment of the situation . THX !
Yes this could become "whack-a-mole" along the Russian border. Might stretch Putlers' army.
Russia is stretched, but Ukraine isn't doing any better in the manpower department. Where are they getting troops for these offensives. The only thing really going for Ukraine is they've been better organized and more wily than the Russians. The old Prussian maxum of doing the unexpected.
If the Russians had full blown mobilization they would likely overrun the Ukrainians. The incursion into Russia could be the excuse for Russia to do so.
@@ShamanMcLamie One can only presume as per the report they have stripped their defences to the bone to provide atracking troops.
Yep I agree Ukraine is short on manpower and really do need allied troops to join in, but that is another ballgame.
Apart from that their only hope is to create such an internal crisis in Russia that someone takes Putler out and decides to bring the war to an end.
@@ShamanMcLamie Seeing how Russians surrender and civilians unlike Ukrainians don't stand up to defend their towns, mobilization would produce a large number of extremely low-morale troops that Russian might not even be able to equip adequately. Plus it would send the message to NATO to mobilize en-masse as well, which is terrifying to Russians.
@@ShamanMcLamie Maybe the claims by the Ukrainian high command that they were short on men was only disinformation for the ruSSians' consumption... and ours, too!
NOBODY had reported 6-8 elite brigades held in reserve for the Kursk offensive. And now we hear that there may be another offensive in preparation!!!
As to full ruSSian mobilization, Poo-tin has amply demonstrated that it was a political impossibility!
but the Karkiv offensive by Russia showed Ukraine. that they have to defend all vectors. So instead of just sitting there waiting for Russia to attack. Why not go on the offensive
I really like your videos and the info you give :) Thank you
If they can get behind the minefields in the South then they can open up the maneuver warfare they have shown in Kursk.
And then what? How will they get behind the minefields? Teleportation? And what about maneuver warfare in Kursk? How is it going? I'll admit the Ukrainians had the first 3-4 days pretty easy by cruising around lightly defended areas, but once the Russians arrived we've seen some horrible ambushes on Ukrainian convoys.
Ukraine does not have the capability to sustain a large offensive in enemy territory. Even if they somehow get their troops across the river they will have to find a way to establish supply lines and I honestly cant see that happening esp in the drone era we live in these days
I hate to agree with a delusional kremlin bot like evil leader '91 on anything but he is actually right for a change, expecting a sudden breakthrough across the fortification line is a complete fantasy. The Russians have prepared a proper defense in depth in the south which Ukraine has already failed to break through. Unless there is some radical outside the box approach that everyone has missed, Ukraine can only perform maneuver warfare in the north and east.
Agreed - the Surovikin line the West allowed Russia to build while they dithered for a year over big weaponry.
@@evilleader1991 Sounds like a lot of assumption to me
@@evilleader1991 Ukraine sustained the rapid advanced of Kharkiv pretty well. Kursk is their second time at maneuver warfare and it's honestly been quite successful both times.
grateful to find your site. Slava Ukraini from California. Peace is coming.
Thank you for explaining the election details. Filled in a big information gap for me.
As for Ukrainian resupply… the last we’ve heard they were still operating as small, mechanized units, driving into the area for 48-72 hours, fighting and driving out. That means they are self-sustained, bringing with them all they need. I doubt there are any logistical trains being set up. They’d be very easy targets for the Russians, given limited routes.
And I think the Russians will go for containment and striking supplies and troop rotations.
@@caritas8984 Right now they’re just digging in and trying to hunt down the small units. There isn’t a coherent front line yet. Everyone is scattered throughout.
Another excellent brief
Thanks
I doubt a second ukrainian offensive, at least this year, unless it is a second incursion, this time either Bryansk of Belgorod oblasts. Maybe Bryansk is best as Belgorod town is likely too big for Ukraine, unless they can surriund it an isolate is. Entering that city is likely madness. Bryansk has the added advantage of isolating Belarus to some extent.
And how exactly this is going to happen? With what army?
Bryansk is literally a swamp, definitely not any easier.
@@doublehelix7880 You would have said the same about Kursk two weeks ago. You don't know the numbers and locations of all their troops.
We've had one, yes. But what about second offensive?
@@stupidburp You sound orcish, have you tried being converted to fertilizer I hear it makes orcs much more useful.
With a Masters in Arts, Tortsen's brain can't comprehend basic Algebra and, more importantly, an idiot for disparaging Ukraine's Kursk offensive on day 1.
And then elevensies advance
@@stupidburp Tortsen is a Modern Day Neanderthal, disparaging Ukraine's Kursk Offensive on day 1 -- with an Arts Degree, his Brain can't comprehend Basic Calculus.
Well, end of summer is the best time for river crossing. And the part around the former lake would be the less defended. Maybe it's just a diversion.
Shhhhhhhh! I like your hardware & software setup.
Thx T
Restrictions of use , bad policy, give them tomahawks then. Sack Sullivan. He thinks he can micro manage the war.
A bad policy that makes some sense. Ukraine is forced to use whatever they have with no thought to future deliveries. If the US would remove restrictions Ua could use those $1.5M ATACCMS against a worthwhile target, instead of against some low value target, as one example.
@@mikep490 US doesn't want Ukraine to win.
@@yedidyah-jedshlomoh1533 If they didn't they wouldn't be sending billions their way.
You're wrong about Sullivan. He's just doing what his bosses (Biden and Harris) are asking : Sustaining a forever war stalemate that drains a geopolitical rival year after year.
@@isitanos US wants Ukraine to weaken Russia.
At least the United States has the “audacity“ to come up with an excuse of poor excuses, better than no excuses at all. What is Germany’s excuse for them not allowing the usage of their weapons?
Germany's next goverment will likely be pro-Russian unless cards are played just right. In a war that will likely last many years any individual weapon used in any one particular situation will not change the resolution of this war, it's a difficult tightrope to walk. Both the US and Germany are proven Ukrainian allies, heck, when all is said is done half the tanks that were eventually sent to Ukraine came from Germany.
The same one as the US has. This has nothing to do with "allowing" the Ukrainians. It is about orders to the US military not to enter the targets or to assist in the guidance of those missiles into Russian territory. The Germans are smarter, they do not send their Taurus at all. So no need of German soldiers assisting in firing those missiles into Russia. Russia would see this as an act of war (and they would be right), which could drag NATO into WW3.
F Ruzzia and Pootin, and whatever crazy thoughts are going on in his stupid looking head ! At this point who really cares how these sub humans that are in control of Ruzzia and their propaganda teams feel !
@@dirkhouben9960 Do you think NATO personnel arm every cruise missile before it is launched? Are you stupid?
@@dirkhouben9960 ...either way Putin needs to be stopped, it will be hard to make this omelet without breaking eggs!
I know you wrote this prior and posted it 8 hours ago and the battlefield is very dynamic, and you can't keep up unless you were running a 24-7 live stream LOL, but already the AFU has taken control of the city Komarovka and the Pontoon Bridge hastily deployed just east of Glushkovo has been destroyed within 24-hrs. of it being erected. Yes, it was a JDAM strike on the Glushkovo Bridge launched by the UAF. ✈ 💛
The stupid U.S. restrictions on the U.S. weapons is similar to military restrictions set in place in the Korean War and the Vietnam War and was also present in Iraq & Afghanistan.
As for fresh Ukrainian troops go, 11 new Brigades are being formed, 2 are being trained in NATO Countries and out of the remaining 9 Brigades, only 2 have been equipped due to material shortages outfitting them.
The Railroad section of the Kerch Bridge was heavily damaged before and has weight limitations on it and instead of 20-40 trains per day as before, only 4-6 pass over it each day now. The Russians had been substituting that loss by using the RR Ferries and they have been attacked repeatedly and the last operable Ferry was just hit and we will see BDA within the next 2-days.
The injection of U.S. JASSM's to Ukraine will open the path for Germany to start providing it's TARUS missiles, so don't lose hope everyone, both of these decisions will come before Nov. 5th Election in the USA.
Don't worry about the election happening in Saxony, Saxons are known to be traitors from past history and blow like the wind, they do not represent the majority of German thinking, most are older former East Germans, so don't read a lot into their little State Election.
well said, sir!
It takes 2 years to train effective tank & ground offensive units. Ukraines now ready.
Excellent analysis again as usual. Thanks again!
Great work!
🙏👏👍💪🇺🇦
Good job reading the tea leaves Torsten! Slava Ukraine.
Ukraine just wasting a lot of Western equipments and lives of their best fighters for PR STUNT, the West will see the foolishness and completely stop the support. 🤦♂️🤦♂️
I have speculated that the Ukrainians maybe have been digging multiple tunnels under the river in the south. It would allow them to attack the lightly defended Russian positions on the eastern banks (they have raided them multiple times before with boats) of the river making a push towards Krym.
Even a couple dozen AGM-158s could take planning a Crimean operation from fantasy to reality. Fun fact- they were initially tested on F-16s.
Will they use them to fly soldiers and tanks across the mine fields and fortification lines?
They have to consolidate their gains in Kursk first with defensive lines and such. Replace the seasoned troops with holding troops and then they can start a new offensive. Likely to take months because they are still taking ground. Winter is coming. Could be a much longer away then we might think.
Only 2 months ago everybody was thinking maybe there would be a UA offensive next year. Now we think a second bigger one is coming. But Ok, let’s play the game: if the second offensive theory is correct, i think the place is pointed by one factor that show the place in your background map, and by a second factor that doesn’t show in your background map. Let’s see…
for some reason i fell like if Ukraine went on with a 2nd offensive given Kursk might be a faint or just trying to move manpower and equipment from Ukraine. there may strike in Luhansk seems like that front have been way to quiet ever since kharkiv offensive.
Well, this analysis had a lot of spin. Ukrainians have not yet lost anything in eastern Ukraine. In Kursk, Ukrainians will ultimately control and defend captured territory from Tetkino to Korenevo to Pogrebki to Sudzha to Peny to Rakitnoye. This area is all defendable with about a Division of troops, not the current 2 Division Corps. With 4 new Brigades rotating into positions at various places around the fronts, each Battalion in each Brigade will have a chance to be “bloodied” in a way not threatening Ukrainian success.
This will allow an experienced Division to impact the frontlines somewhere meaningful. These are the options I see:
1: Crimea? Hahaha! Ukrainian Marines just failed to capture the Spit close to their base of Operations.
2: As you stated, Kherson Oblast East and Zaporizhzhia Oblast still have Surokin Defense Lines but the depth at which they are manned is unknown. They might be vulnerable.
3: The Russians have multiple overextended vulnerable salients. These could be targets. If one of these happens, it has to be decisive enough to have political impact.
4: Launching another Offensive Operation into Russia, or expanding the current Kursk Offensive, is going to lack surprise. It would also have to be politically decisive to matter. I believe there are only limited places where this type of Ukrainian Offensive Operation would work.
Whatever Ukraine does, it will have to be well planned. This means having enough troops and material to pull off the Offensive Operation.
Ukraine keeps us guessing, and the Russians too.
3 hot meals a day in wartime ?
We ate "rat packs " for weeks on end when necessary.
Rat pack is a meal you just forget to provide the heat.
As poor as Russia is performing in defense you could probably pack a hot plate in your pack and a Russian civilian will let you use an outlet for a ruble or two.
@@herbtapp3031 Ukraine was supplying Russian civilians with food parcels so maybe they can also manage hot meals for their troops.
They seem well organised.
My Bowls have PTSD
@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub Yep Ukraine is not blowing building to rubble so if they do stay in the region over the fall/winter they will have some shelter available makes combat just slightly more tolerable which is good for morale.
Thanks, and "Ill be back."
*God bless all the Bros and Sisters worldwide*
Hi, great reporting, I have changed to notify all.
*_Please change the default settings for comments to Newest_* in YT studio. Otherwise YT hides up to half of comments and manipulates which get likes. You (channel) don't see them either.
Good analysis.
If the crimea bridge goes down the land routes to cre9mia will be inundated with people trying to escape crimea. Russia wouldn't be able to bring anything in for a while.
I would guess 90% to see more. It absolutely would make sense to only start when troops have been deployed for the Kursk counter. Nobody needs to go through the mine fields ...
Let's hope that Patriot system and the crew are mostly ok, looked bad.
Dat naivety...
@@doublehelix7880no survivors
U probably turned into a red mist after facing thousands of pointy tungsten balls going Mach Jesus right at your face, looks lame from drone perspective, looks like hell on the ground
Thats a launcher. they are not ,manned, but remote controlled, and they are always positioned quite a distance from the manned equipment. A Patriot battery has a pair of manned units, a couple of unmanned radars, an unmanned power generator, for the command and control systems, and 6-8 launch tube units.
@@doublehelix7880 difficult to see why a damaged launcher, which is unmanned, would be a major worry for the troops since none would be anywhere near it.
2:11 the video continued quite a bit after the bomblets exploded, and I could not see any smoke or secondary explosions.
3:47 the "1.5 km" means Ukraine has gained a foothold on the rail line roughly at Gaponovo stop/road crossing to Krasnooktyabrskoye. Presumably Snagost' river is a major obstacle (especially if RU blows up the rail bridge which they won't be needing anymore for the time being anyway). But Ukraine can easily flank this via Apanasovka. At any rate their local operational goals are Glushkove station and Komarovka. Vishnevka is not really worth fighting over. The Sejm bottomland is riverine/swamp forest, probably fairly dry land at this time of year but all but impassable by anything except dispersed infantry - they do not have to control all terrain right up to the river tho cut off Glushkovo Raion.
That Ukraine is at Gaponovo also ties in with reports they are infiltrating northwards through the large patch of dry forest (15-20 m higher than the bottomland) between Gaponovo and Lobanovka/Korenovo.
4:52 this is not a reliable supply route - only suitable for light loads and barely accessible to vehicles. On the south side, there is swampy grassland with not even unpaved trails, it is basically like Ukraine supplying the Krynky bridgehead. Zvannoye bridge is also not properly connected to the main road network to Rylsk (and neither is the Karhzy bridge which apparently has not been attacked yet - Ukraine may actually want to keep it intact because it connects to a small area that is far more accessible from the Ukrainian border at Busky and Kozache than from unoccupied Russian territory).
Great work
Great work. Thanks.
At this point, I wonder if the Ukrainians are letting the Russians advance past their easily restocked distance and will then cut the Russian forces off.
Expect the unexpected.
Just like with weight lifting, if you're still putting on muscle - you're still putting on muscle!
I don't get it
You do an excellent analysis of the situation. I also like the verification process you use. I agree that the Ukrainians must have larger reserves than we see right now. They are trading space for time instead of sending units piecemeal to the east. So we wait and watch…….. Slava Ukraine!
As an US citizen what i think is that the unmamed official is trying to fight a war without winning the war and I am absolutely sick of the stupidity of what is going on in Washington. These people are liars and cowards.
On the Zvannoe bridge. There is now a ukrainian video showing the bridge getting a massive hole in it.
Slava Ukraine ❤
How is it slowing down? Is square meters of land brought under control the sloe measure of an offensive? There's a difference between phasing in consolidation, securing gains and supply lines, moving more equipment in, therefore slowing advancements. on the one hand. And being forced to stop because of defensive response.
Well we don't really know which
Ukrainian safari trip into Kursk ended abruptly, all the gung-hoo lightly armored convoys got ambushed and utterly destroyed by the Russians 😂. Dont believe me? Theres tons of footage of Ukrainian Kozaks, Strykers, BTRs getting demolished.
Also, I find it funny how pro-Ukies are now questioning the "slowing down" narrative. "nooo, they are not slowing down, they are simply consolidating their gains 😢".
Meanwhile when Russians took an operational pause after capturing a large settlements pro-Ukies were quick to say that the Russians ran out of steam 😂 (only to be proven wrong a few days later when the Russians started moving again).
@@neurofiedyamato8763 Thank you!
@@neurofiedyamato8763
But we do, don't we?
The move to consolidate at Sudzha, the biggest resistance felt at Gir'i.
Not only no organized competent resistance elsewhere, not enough redeployment of resources and manpower to do more than slow Ukraine down...
Meaning Ukraine did slow down to consolidate forces.
I've been thinking ever since the Kursk incursion that they would start another additional incursion (s) at other weak points along the border. I don't expect Crimea yet.
Thank you
That Russian is likely correct about the Kursk incursion in that it COULD be a distraction for a greater offensive in Crimea. But, as it's an obvious move, I'd assume Ukr. has secondary and tertiary plans aside from attacking Crimea. Maybe they'll go into Crimea or they'll see the Russians predicted this and instead chose a secondary target en-masse. Doesn't mean they can't execute that plan later on as chance dictates.
For dutch people, Kotsnews is such an appropriate name for a Russian news channel.
😂
Ik hoop dat je niet suggereert dat Nederlanders Rusland op welke manier dan ook moeten of zouden steunen, want alleen een stomme onwetende klootzak zou zoiets suggereren glorie aan Oekraïne en dood aan de orcs
Ook vrek snaaks in Afrikaans😂
I understand you are sometimes "talking off the top of your head". You spoke of a second offensive in 6-8 weeks, while I think the idea probable I feel it must come sooner. By the end of October if I am not mistaken campaigning will be extremely difficult.. Again thank you for the excellent coverage. I cannot afford (just retired) a continual support but would like to give a small one time contribution. There is something called "give a cup f coffee" maybe check it out.
I think it likely any Ukrainian involvement in possible negotiations just now have 2 reasons - 1. to avoid the accusation they aren't prepared too and 2. to gauge the level of Putin's need. I cant imagine they would have any reason to actually negotiate a ceasefire because they know Putin will just use it to re-arm.
With the Crimean bridge, if Ukraine had intended to hit and destroy it yet, it would be. More likely these most recent attacks are at targets nearby, such as air defense, harbors, ferry landings, port infrastructure and bridge approaches. When they decide to hit the bridge proper, it'll be a massive drone and missile attacks, combined from as many ways and sides as possible. Makes no sense making weak little attempts regularly. Bridge approaches make good targets, as they are difficult and time consuming to repair, specially elevated structures.
👍
Now we have photos of the Bridge at Zvannoye village of Kursk region, destroyed.
Attacking the bridge that is evidently no longer of strategic value as railroad is operational but would gain large publicity value more probably shows a kind of desperation on Ukraine's side. Noone has really explained the point of the Kursk invasion except to gain publicity in the West and embarressment for Russia. And how could they attack towards Crimea when the defensive lines there broke the summer offensive? This is pure kite flying. Guesswork you are right!
31:38 Ukraine are already working on an AI approach system for “FPV” drones for striking vehicles without having to keep contact.
I would think it’s easier to make a simple AI that can follow and estimate the impact point of something flying like a helicopter or surveillance drone.
Slava Ukraini
Anyone else think it'll be across the Dnieper??
Thanks for your unbiased information.
Any weak spot attacked diverts resources from elsewhere...Crimea is one due to geographic reasons and it would be better to hit military bases than kerch bridge that could be repaired sooner or later ...
And we know that Russians are so good with pontoon bridges...
Ukraine has drones equipped with thermal drones rhat discover targets at night as some online sources say ...
If you can tell us everything the US is aware of in the whole battle area, what their informants are telling them about what is happening in Russia and, what agreements that have with China to stay out of the war, I will be able to make a decision about how reasonable it is they limit the use of weapons.
No way they have the manpower available for a second offensive. In order to attack kursk they already had to take a lot of their most effective troops from the donbass area, and have suffered major losses to take the territory they have. It's unrealistic to think they will make another major push without further mobilization.
The US has about 1500 ATACMs that are past their use-by date. There are also a few hundred ATACMs with cluster munitions which the US and it's allies have pledged not to use. Both of these types of missiles can be sent without degrading US readiness.
USA has 1/3 planet military budget, they could fight the rest of the world and they would still wouldnt be depleted.
I fully support the special military Russian humiliation and the liberation of their people from Nazis by the strongest army in Russia! ❤ 😂 😅 😊
Bro, they are our missiles.
Great report