Football betting | Under 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy explained in detail using specialist tools
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- čas přidán 20. 09. 2019
- Running through every Betfair trading strategy is a core metric. Something that is enduring that ensures if you understand it, you can profit from over the longer term.
It's fairly obvious that if you are trading over / under goals markets then goals is that metric, but within that is some hidden information.
Trading is all about creating a window of opportunity for you to trade in and out of. You need to know what up and downside you have and what the market is thinking.
Because my initial background was in football, Bet Angel contains many useful features that
In this video, we look at the hidden detail when trading the over / under goals markets.
#footballbetting #betfair #betfairtrading - Sport
Brilliant explanation Peter thank you...so glad I found this video!
Glad you enjoyed it
superb educational vid. Thanks
Amazing! Love the calming and clear voice too
Thank you
Nice video
Peter, did you find the old article you've mentioned? I would be interested to read it if possible. Best regards.
I read a study that playing "under" in a football match has statistically negative expectancy, by the way you will have to find value, and if you are selective, football has less entry points than others sports, so you will study strategies for years and still not sure if you have an edge, considering its variability.
by trade you mean cash out option? because thats what im using but will that get me banned? just bet over 1.5 on several matches then cash out then ones who doesnt seem to scroe at the 60-80 min mark
I use the Total corners to see the Live Market......Does anyone Knows Other Software ?? I Appreciate the Answer...
Is this still considered useful/accurate modelling?
@ Peter Webb Can I get the article you wrote on this topic?
analysis how to select games and tell when the goal will be scored is there any video? 1 and 2 half goals how to tell which half should trade or not
Based on what you have said in earlier videos about teams sitting on their leads, if a team goes 2 or 3 up then they may become more defensive or manager brings off key players, does the under goals market reflect this? The model in this video says that a match with odds of around 2.0 of over 2.5 goals there is going to be a goal every 34 mins, some teams score more goals in the first half, some in the 2nd half?
It can be pretty dynamic, so you can get insight into a match by watching it and seeing the formation has changed etc. You will see the market leaning on one side or another as the match progresses to reflect the changing states. But it's your role as a trade to judge whether the market has got it wrong, in essense.
Its depend on team strategy when to start playing aggressive when to defense and their plan about game
Great video! I’m just beginning to learn and get involved. Been doing match betting before. Had my first go yesterday, with this under 2.5 goals, put in £50 Utd v Liverpool, pre match and cashed out in three stages, the last being 16th minute. Lucky as Salah scored in 18th!
Question though....Would there be any value at all in backing a goal in the first 10mins at 4/1 as some insurance?
Probably not mate... assuming you’re using a bookie then there’s no value for sure, losers will come but as long as you win more than you lose in the long term you’ll be fine. There are a couple of keys to trading unders as Peter alludes too in terms of metrics ie goal minutes (average minutes teams concede/score) and also average goals likely to be scored within matches. But something else I know is extremely important to monitor from experience is how quickly the market moves. If you’re on an unders trade and the price is moving sideways then it’s useless, if the price doesn’t move particularly much within the first 5 minutes of a game generally it isn’t a good quality trade. If you consistently get involved in unders markets and learn to judge how quickly the unders price is descending and learn to exit/stay in your trade according to that rule that will determine how big of an edge you have long term. And it’s amazing how often I see people talking about unders strategies but yet they don’t mention something so fundamental as gaging price movement.
Great insight 👌
Soccer mystic is a hidden gem. I think its underrated. I've used it a lot to look at price movement in the CS market.
Tony - does it do what he does in one of his other videos in terms of CS and looking at match adjusted odds? I've been creating my own tables but it's a real labour of love!
Its hard to get out of your trade here in australia. Betfair in australia dont allow cashout inplay due to the new gambling laws
Paul Morgan I’m a Brit living in Aus for a year and this is the worst thing! Can’t do my matched betting properly or any trading :(
Near impossible in Aus to go pro with the government restrictions having to phone in your bets. Can take up to 3 or 4 minutes at times. Pretty ordinary....
Is there a link to the paper you wrote on this many years ago? Thanks.
I think it's long since gone. But I may have archived it somewhere, most likely.
wow, this helped me do a lot of maths I probably wouldn't have figured out how to do! I realised I will win 42% of my stake and lose 20% for my strategy. How do I figure out what my strike rate should be?
Not clear what you mran. Gazillions loses all their stake not 20%?
Please give rxamplrs.
when trading overs on 2.5 goals when a goal goes in should you take the risk out for a free bet or wait for a second goal for more profit if and when it comes in?
If the away team\underdog scores first I would wait. In general always wait 5 minutes after the first goal goes in as very often you get another goal and in that period the market tends to stay static for a few minutes. After 5 minutes if no goal then remove liability or green up.
Why would you lay the over 2.5 instead of backing the under?
You can do either, all backs are the opposite of a lay and vice versa.
As all the pros does ... don't waste too much time on statistics just pick a game look at the odds watch the game and pic a trade or not.The game itself dictate the market move ... the statistics are for automated trade
Statistics can tell you if the market has moved too far inplay.
hello bet angel can this be automated with your software
Yes, you can automate almost everything.
Basically.............!!!!
The title says "Over 2.5 Goals Strategy" but the video is about under 2.5.
Over is the inverse of under, so by default it's the same thing really.
Where's the edge in this strategy? Hasn't the probability of goals coming in the next X minutes already priced into the odds?
This is describing the strategy and how to approach it. Ultimately you create the edge through your research and execution and by spotting when the market is out of kilter with your assesment.
Does this work in Australia
The software does, but your ability to trade in-play is restricted somewhat in Australia.
First! :-p
Bayern Munich vs who? 🤣🤣🤣
Crvena Zvezda = Red Star Belgrade :D
Thanks, I was aware, but it's not as entertaining.
Zagreb won 4-0
Goals 10 31 42 68
I can't stand listening to you after your crvena zvezda bit.
You are no obligation to do so.