He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged. Big deal…
@@seanm3226stop falling for recency bias and your feelings towards trump. Hillary was the favorite a week before the election. That last minute investigation by Comey and her pride (not making last efforts to campaign in swing states) costed her the election. Every poll had her as the favorite at that time. Not enough dems showed out to the polls. They did so in 2020 bc they knew the stakes of it.
@@jesusacosta5176 i believe both sides will show up again. it will come down to the electoral college and swing state races. most of america already has their party/mind up. Just 6 battleground states that decide the election. I will admit that trump did get more votes in 2020 than 2016 so i can’t doubt republicans. But idk if he’ll get more in 2024 than 2020 considering all that happened since the November election. Jan 6, convicted of felonies. Found liable for defamation and r*pe in a civil case
This guy is correct. People have already decided whom they would vote. It doesn't matter whether Biden remains or not, the Biden voters would vote any Democratic candidate. In fact many Dems are saying they would vote for Biden even if he is on a wheelchair.
They voted for FDR when he had polio. FDR did some of his best presidential work when he was in a wheel chair. Since when, do the elitist Dems think they have the right to change our primary vote?!
I am a democrat who has voted democratic every single time down ballot. I am a democrat who hangs out in mostly center left to left political circles. Never have I seen so many democrats either saying I wont vote for Biden; I will either stay home or vote third party. He lost a lot of us because of Gaza, and now he has lost more since its clear he is mentally unfit to be president. His arrogance and ego in the last week where he is literally sounding like Trump isnt helping either.
The calls for Biden to step down seem negative, no positive suggestions, just dividing and weakening the Democrat party. If you suggest somebody else that could be positive. However, unless you suggest Harris the VP to take over, there would be enormous difficulties which make the other suggestions impractical. That is what Lichtman says. As for Republicans, if Biden is so bad then he would be an asset to Republicans and they should want him to stay.
Why did Trump assault that poor woman in a dressing room and then defame her twice? Why isn’t that one of the keys? Convicted of 34 felonies should also be a key. Trump will be sentenced in September. Maybe that will be a key? 😂
That's right. Not to mention the January 6th insurrection case in D.C., the election interference case in Georgia, the Espionage case in Florida. An innocent man would want to go to trial to prove he's innocent. Trump just keeps delaying the trial and now he's having his s. court judges destroying our Constitution to help him. Judge Cannon is helping Trump too.
No. Biden IS NOT fully cognizant in real public time. He may be able to function with helpers & behind scenes but US Pres. role often involves on the spot thinking foreign policy wise. Democrats NEED to realise they are in a delusional echo chamber to not appreciate the public will vote for a felon over a visibly too old man. BOTH Mr B AND Mr T should be stood down as candidates!
@@Guy-cb1oh and you don’t have to be a college professor, to predict what he predicted. Only maybe three of the last 10 presidential elections or close. So he basically is 2 out of 3.
He's assuming that lots of viewers are only watching him now for the first time. He's not thinking of his fans like you who catch him wherever he goes. : )
Not sure about your thoughts but I think this|| , "" All the news networks have fallen into a big vicieux " Biden to step down, news loop Syndrome " . I am not certain whether these immortal networks will ever able to get out from this LOOP. Go Biden Go. Live long USA. "".
Who ISN'T biased in this day and age?!! Then again, the biggest "bias" happened after January 6th. Then the camps became firmly established - the Orange Jesus camp, and the anti-Orange Jesus camp.
Biden’s old, he’s not a vegetable. You should be honest with yourself, or you will find yourself constantly baffled by why the world doesn’t agree with your perspective.
Is ok Fox spouts nothing but biased anti Biden crap 24/7 never ending guests reiterating same thing. Then you get folk like this doing it for the democratic platforms.
Although he is neglecting to acknowledge the fact that this is the first time in American history that a candidate has shown this level of senility. That could change things, not saying it will, but it could.
he predicted trump to win in 2016. he is nonpartisan. He just looks at data on the methods his election predicting format follows to predict wins. He’s not saying biden will win but he is more favorable if he stays put instead of there being an open spot/non-incumbent leader.
Totally disagree with Allan! How about adding mental / physical health to your model?! You are assuming every candidate is physically and mentally healthy! That’s the flaw in your model! Challenge that, Allan! Your model is flawed!
I said the same thing in a comment after the last time NewsNation gave this guy a platform. This professor is a historian. He's not thinking like a scientist, though he's trying to sound as though he is.
Mental and physical incapacity is immaterial in this case because Biden is incoherent but not mentally incompetent. He has not been formally diagnosed. So your additional variable of mental unfitness is just like adding a liability for an incumbent like high unemployment or criminal conviction as in the case with Trump
I was expecting an impartial exposition about the factors that affect who wins from a professor. What I got is someone who is not an objective observer. He seems emotionally attached to the outcome and all in on the Democratic party and telling them what to do. It looks unprofessional on his part.
In order for it to be a losing key for Biden, Trump must be a charismatic candidate (challenger). Trump is not charismatic as he doesn't have a wide appeal, ala Reagan, FDR or Obama (in 2008).
@@TimeIdleand who determines that? Him in his basement? - between both candidates, trump is more charismatic than biden, therefore, this “key” should go to him.
@@critical_eye1 Learn about his keys before flapping your mouth. The question isn't if the challenger is more or less charismatic than the incumbent. It's if the challenger is charismatic, period. And it's determined by metrics, like votes and approval ratings and wide appeal. How many democrats do you know who voted for Trump (the way they did for Reagan, for example). How is Trump charismatic when he lost the popular votes in two elections in a row to two different people? By the way, there's also a separate charisma question for the incumbent, for which Biden lost that key b/c he too isn't considered a charismatic candidate.
@@shams6662 To a MAGA maybe, but that's not the definition of charisma according to Allan's key. The candidate has to have a wide appeal. Trump never got over 47% of the votes.
Just the fact that Trump can secure the nomination of the GOP should tell you everything you need to know about that fustercluck. Save our democracy vote Blue. Vote for Joe. This is important. For real.
He also looks like he should step aside 😂 He shares maybe a coiffeur with Trump ? The point of Trump Convicted and lier I do fear doesn’t represent a problem for voters in general
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged. Big deal…
I’m sick of every time this guys is introduced. They says he’s correctly predicted 9 of last 10 elections. Only 2 (maybe 3) of the last 10 elections were even close. So in my eyes, he’s (2 for 3)
@@-mattwood do you wanna explain where there’s a flaw in my reasoning. Let me rephrase it for you, so you can better understand. (7 out the Last 10) elections it was clearly known who’s gonna win the election before the election. Only 3 were tossups.
@@-mattwood He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged. Big deal…
Thank you professor Allen please 🙏🏽 let me know this peoples know is big mistake to push president Biden we have to stand by him 👏🏼👏🏼👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽👌👌👌✌️✌️✌️🤍🤍💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸💯💯💯💯💯😍😍
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged. Big deal…
Big deal, I predicted the Jets would lose the last 20 Super Bowls, and predict that they will not win any of the next 10 Super Bowls. But nobody’s asking me to be interviewed on national TV.
Japanese internment camps were established during World War II by President Franklin D. Roosevelt through his Executive Order 9066. From 1942 to 1945, it was the policy of the U.S. government that people of Japanese descent, including U.S. citizens, would be incarcerated in isolated camps. Enacted in reaction to the Pearl Harbor attacks and the ensuing war, the incarceration of Japanese Americans is considered one of the most atrocious violations of American civil rights in the 20th century. It will be worse this time. What happens when these millions are tried to be returned and no one wants them back. Will it go the way of the Germans, when no one wanted the Jews ( immigrants, legal and illegal), Gays, Gypsy (homeless), media and party dissenters.
Because his methodology is based on metrics; economics, administrative efficiency, foreign policy, a legitimate challenge to the incumbent. By the way, he hasn’t made a projection for this election as of yet.
@@TheTechnocrat78 He *is* saying that barring the unforeseen, Biden would be likely to win against Trump, and that replacing the incumbent with an unknown net candidate would make a Dem win far more difficult if.
Political analysts and pundits often try to shape public opinion and influence how people think about political issues. They may use various techniques, such as framing, spin, and selective presentation of facts, to advance their own narratives or agendas. The "keys to the White House" concept, popularized by Allan Lichtman, is a prime example of this. While it may be an interesting and simplifying framework for understanding presidential elections, it's essential to remember that it's just one perspective among many. It's crucial to maintain a critical eye and consider multiple sources, viewpoints, and factors when evaluating political information. By doing so, you can develop a more nuanced understanding of the issues and make informed decisions.
I find the keys interesting and i would believe them but the fact that he has the scandal key as win is kinda ridiculous. Whats happening now is definitely scandal
Trump is in it for himself. He''s trying to stay out of prison. Biden is in it for the American people. Our democracy (Trump would turn the U.S into a dictatorship). Our reproductive healthcare/IVF/birth control. (Trump would do a nation wide ban). Our Social Security/Medicare. (Trump is already promising his rich donors another tax cut). Our planet (Trump is selling our planet for every 1B$ from big oil.) Read Project 2025. Democracy is an American issue. Democrats, Independents and Republicans needs to vote Biden/Blue all the way down the ballot to save our democracy.
That's Right Allan. One One Side Haters Using Common Sense/ Repeating Here Say, while On The Other Side Its Hard To Discredit Reality Using Logic 😮 ❤ 💯
What?? Are you saying you disagree with that comment? Just making sure I understand you correctly, I've never heard anyone say he isn't out for himself, even his own people say it is why I'm so surprised
I think you're right... the guy who created the methodology and has use it to accurately predict 40 years of Presidents doesn't know what he's doing. Maybe YOU should have been interviewed.
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged. Big deal…
And the funny thing about him is that he is boastful like trump. They have so much in common a trump is very boasful and so is he? That's why he doesn't like trump if he doesn't believe there's other people there's another man like him.😂😂
I don’t think anyone realizes that this man is getting old just like Joe Biden… The keys might be the same but the situation has changed and he needs to change his keys to what is happening now…. He keys are of the past now
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged. Big deal…
I don't usually fall into the conspiracy theories BUT I do believe Gore won in 2000 and our world would be so much better if he had been put into office and no I'm not ",trolling" or a "bot" this is MY opinion 🤷
He’s completely Senile !!! It doesn’t matter what you think should happen , your wrong because Biden is incapable of doing his job , and his job is one of the most important jobs on earth.
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged. Big deal…
Just imagine if the Democrats replace Biden, putting someone else on the ticket, and then right after the Democratic Convention ends Lichtman makes his big prediction that everyone is waiting for and he says Trump is predicted to win! Oh my God, will THAT cause a fuss!
If Biden leaves, Trump will win. That is why it's such a horrible idea. Media, why don't you talk about Trump leaving the race. There are a lot more reasons for him to leave.
It is been at the stage where "folly" is what happens anytime he does anything. Can't negotiate stairs, rambles incoherently. World is watching and is shocked that this has been allowed to even happen. Trump and co. are keen for Joe to stay on the ticket. I wonder why 😂
Ya' know what "folly" is? It's when you're so focused on the winning, and not the fact that our people would likely re-elect someone that has DEMENTIA (and that his son, wife and other unelected handlers are actually running OUR country). And that he only won the first time based on FEAR (or he would have been potus years ago). And that this person did a lot of sh*tty things in the past (lied publicly about his education, plagiarized multiple times, and made light of both once confronted about it ... I'll not mention the SA accusation, and his other inappropriate behavior with women). "Folly" is having tunnel vision, again, putting such great emphasis on the win, and not this demented person being our LEADER. And not expressing how awful that is for our people, our country, the WORLD. Our future. But hey, as we're at that point of no return, you can still boast that you called the win. Um 'kay. But this time, I very much believe you'll be proven wrong. Our world is changing beyond what your system can predict. RFK Jr. will be out next potus. A true leader this time. And just in the nick of time.
His advice is ridiculous. Being able to predict the result of elections, and having a system, does not rule out common sense. Biden did not just have a bad debate or a bad night. Biden could not say anything coherent during that the debate, due to mental decline. That is serious. You cannot have someone as president in that state of mind, have as a president, even if he would be elected, which will not happen. Trump is also a bad candidate, but the idea that one can beat a bad candidate, with a candidate that is even worse, is stupid. Replace Biden before it is too late and more damage has been done.
@@-mattwood He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged. Big deal…
Replacing President Biden would hand the election to Trump. Biden had a bad night. That is all. Did you see his North Carolina rally the next morning? He was fine! Trump has dementia. Biden stutters.
Watch this interview: czcams.com/video/X4VemewGU6o/video.html Lichtman goes in depth about the keys and explains the science behind them and the historical research of elections dating back to 1800s that goes into them. He also explains why the disastrous debate does not impact Biden's chances of winning even though it is an unprecedented situation. Great interview!
But we don't know if Mr. Biden can stay healthy or of his health will decline before the election. I vote for Biden to step down and to let Harris to become the president.
The guy is 80+, was overscheduled, jet lagged, and fighting a cold; it was late, he was tired. Add to that, he was thrown into the event virtually unmoderated, against someone whom debating is like trying to herd cats, or playing the proverbial game of chess against a pigeon. They shut Trump's mic off, but Joe could still hear every word, and I'd love to see how coherent any of us would look, dealing with trying to talk over around or through someone the audience cannot hear. If there IS actual dementia or cognitive impairment, we need a clear medical diagnosis, and Biden needs to hand over the reins, his delegates, and the campaign finances to Kamala; then the whole party has to rally behind her. But I would think the GOP should look to the cognitive state of its own candidate, before worrying about Biden's.
Biden is falling asleep every where he goes. He needs afternoon naps. Jill speaks to him as if he is a child. This is an embarrassment to all Americans
so let Joe run and watch the Train go off the collapsed bridge at full speed into the river 2 Miles below that's infested with Crocodiles ? may as well, then Hunter can run for office and tell stories about how his dad got eaten by Crocs
He predicted trump when no else was.When all the polls and pundits said hillary would win
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged.
Big deal…
On the heels of Brexit, plenty of people picked Trump in 2016.
@@seanm3226stop falling for recency bias and your feelings towards trump. Hillary was the favorite a week before the election. That last minute investigation by Comey and her pride (not making last efforts to campaign in swing states) costed her the election. Every poll had her as the favorite at that time. Not enough dems showed out to the polls. They did so in 2020 bc they knew the stakes of it.
@@smh-TV they better remember the stakes this time as well
@@jesusacosta5176 i believe both sides will show up again. it will come down to the electoral college and swing state races. most of america already has their party/mind up. Just 6 battleground states that decide the election. I will admit that trump did get more votes in 2020 than 2016 so i can’t doubt republicans. But idk if he’ll get more in 2024 than 2020 considering all that happened since the November election. Jan 6, convicted of felonies. Found liable for defamation and r*pe in a civil case
This guy is correct. People have already decided whom they would vote. It doesn't matter whether Biden remains or not, the Biden voters would vote any Democratic candidate. In fact many Dems are saying they would vote for Biden even if he is on a wheelchair.
They voted for FDR when he had polio. FDR did some of his best presidential work when he was in a wheel chair. Since when, do the elitist Dems think they have the right to change our primary vote?!
FDR noises intensifies
I am a democrat who has voted democratic every single time down ballot. I am a democrat who hangs out in mostly center left to left political circles. Never have I seen so many democrats either saying I wont vote for Biden; I will either stay home or vote third party. He lost a lot of us because of Gaza, and now he has lost more since its clear he is mentally unfit to be president. His arrogance and ego in the last week where he is literally sounding like Trump isnt helping either.
@@belgianbull4722 how old are you even the decade is enough
@@syz911 the independent voters are the ones who will decide the election.
The calls for Biden to step down seem negative, no positive suggestions, just dividing and weakening the Democrat party. If you suggest somebody else that could be positive. However, unless you suggest Harris the VP to take over, there would be enormous difficulties which make the other suggestions impractical. That is what Lichtman says. As for Republicans, if Biden is so bad then he would be an asset to Republicans and they should want him to stay.
Why did Trump assault that poor woman in a dressing room and then defame her twice? Why isn’t that one of the keys?
Convicted of 34 felonies should also be a key.
Trump will be sentenced in September. Maybe that will be a key?
😂
You have it bad
That's right. Not to mention the January 6th insurrection case in D.C., the election interference case in Georgia, the Espionage case in Florida. An innocent man would want to go to trial to prove he's innocent. Trump just keeps delaying the trial and now he's having his s. court judges destroying our Constitution to help him. Judge Cannon is helping Trump too.
Mr.biden president please please stay presidential election
No. Biden IS NOT fully cognizant in real public time. He may be able to function with helpers & behind scenes but US Pres. role often involves on the spot thinking foreign policy wise. Democrats NEED to realise they are in a delusional echo chamber to not appreciate the public will vote for a felon over a visibly too old man.
BOTH Mr B AND Mr T should be stood down as candidates!
I hope your 2nd thinking your post, since after July 23
I predicted the New York Jets would not win the last 10 Super Bowls. Nobody’s calling me to be on TV. 😢
You don't have to be a College Professor to predict that...
@@Guy-cb1oh and you don’t have to be a college professor, to predict what he predicted. Only maybe three of the last 10 presidential elections or close. So he basically is 2 out of 3.
This man literally repeats the same thing every single show he goes on.
So do all the other networks on Biden, like stuck records today. hella boring. Joe is going to get up and WIN.
He's assuming that lots of viewers are only watching him now for the first time. He's not thinking of his fans like you who catch him wherever he goes. : )
Do you want him to state a different method or prediction? He has one system and one prediction.
Not sure about your thoughts but I think this|| , "" All the news networks have fallen into a big vicieux " Biden to step down, news loop Syndrome " . I am not certain whether these immortal networks will ever able to get out from this LOOP. Go Biden Go. Live long USA. "".
What's your track record? 🤣
Well this guy isnt biased 😂... get the HOOK !
He called trump in 2016
@@MegaChallanger And he says there is no scandal with Biden.
@@robthagod4870
That's his opinion. The keys I believe.
His opinions suck.
Who ISN'T biased in this day and age?!! Then again, the biggest "bias" happened after January 6th. Then the camps became firmly established - the Orange Jesus camp, and the anti-Orange Jesus camp.
@@RIDING_BEARSexcept he’s predicted every election since Reagan correctly lmao you people are coping so hard
BOYCOTT MAINSTREAM MEDIA
Speak up to mainstream media, then boycott.
He is missing "the candidate is a vegetable" key.
@@orionspur that would be Trump 😆😆
Biden’s old, he’s not a vegetable. You should be honest with yourself, or you will find yourself constantly baffled by why the world doesn’t agree with your perspective.
He's missing "the candidate is a felon" key
It's sad when one terrible prediction completely destroys the credibility and reputation of a good man.
The media is so biased
Is ok Fox spouts nothing but biased anti Biden crap 24/7 never ending guests reiterating same thing. Then you get folk like this doing it for the democratic platforms.
Although he is neglecting to acknowledge the fact that this is the first time in American history that a candidate has shown this level of senility. That could change things, not saying it will, but it could.
Guy got TDS bad
he predicted trump to win in 2016. he is nonpartisan. He just looks at data on the methods his election predicting format follows to predict wins. He’s not saying biden will win but he is more favorable if he stays put instead of there being an open spot/non-incumbent leader.
You’ve got fascism blindness bad
He literally predicted Trump would win in 2016.
Totally disagree with Allan! How about adding mental / physical health to your model?! You are assuming every candidate is physically and mentally healthy! That’s the flaw in your model! Challenge that, Allan! Your model is flawed!
we will see if he has to eat his bias
I said the same thing in a comment after the last time NewsNation gave this guy a platform. This professor is a historian. He's not thinking like a scientist, though he's trying to sound as though he is.
Mental and physical incapacity is immaterial in this case because Biden is incoherent but not mentally incompetent. He has not been formally diagnosed. So your additional variable of mental unfitness is just like adding a liability for an incumbent like high unemployment or criminal conviction as in the case with Trump
@@morrisonreed1idk how you bet against someone with his track record
i think allan is right trump is not a clean guy so if joe walks away look who you got trump ant much better
For Democracy’s sake keep Joe Biden as the candidate and stop bitching. Get out there and fight like Democracy is at stake!
I was expecting an impartial exposition about the factors that affect who wins from a professor. What I got is someone who is not an objective observer. He seems emotionally attached to the outcome and all in on the Democratic party and telling them what to do. It looks unprofessional on his part.
Well he has a record behind him. Your post does not.
His wig is all wrong...
I think it's the color. Salt and pepper would look better.
@@katrinagarrett9612 It's to appear younger to lure in little boys.
@@guyfawkes9789 Projecting much?
@@TimeIdle you sticking up for your own kind?.😆
@@guyfawkes9789 it looks like he’s wearing a Lego piece head of hair😅
Thank you Professor!!!
Keep up the good research!!
Keep up the hard work and the critical keys you talk about!!
You have the respect of so many.
Every system is right until it’s wrong
Hey genius, how is "challenger charisma" a "winning key" for biden??
In order for it to be a losing key for Biden, Trump must be a charismatic candidate (challenger). Trump is not charismatic as he doesn't have a wide appeal, ala Reagan, FDR or Obama (in 2008).
@@TimeIdleand who determines that? Him in his basement? - between both candidates, trump is more charismatic than biden, therefore, this “key” should go to him.
@@critical_eye1 Learn about his keys before flapping your mouth. The question isn't if the challenger is more or less charismatic than the incumbent. It's if the challenger is charismatic, period. And it's determined by metrics, like votes and approval ratings and wide appeal. How many democrats do you know who voted for Trump (the way they did for Reagan, for example). How is Trump charismatic when he lost the popular votes in two elections in a row to two different people? By the way, there's also a separate charisma question for the incumbent, for which Biden lost that key b/c he too isn't considered a charismatic candidate.
@@TimeIdle Unfortunately, Trump is a charismatic challenger. It's his only redeeming trait, but he is.
@@shams6662 To a MAGA maybe, but that's not the definition of charisma according to Allan's key. The candidate has to have a wide appeal. Trump never got over 47% of the votes.
Just the fact that Trump can secure the nomination of the GOP should tell you everything you need to know about that fustercluck. Save our democracy vote Blue. Vote for Joe. This is important. For real.
This guy is not objective at all!
You do realize he called trump in 2016
He called Trump to win the popular vote, which was false. Then he changed what his “keys” predicted. They always just predicted the popular vote.
He’s been right for 40 years lol
His methodology is sound. 100% sound. A record unequalled.
@@MegaChallanger Just think, he was the only person who predicted Trump woul win, I mean I'm impressed.
I’m with Biden🤩🤩👍
He also looks like he should step aside 😂 He shares maybe a coiffeur with Trump ? The point of Trump Convicted and lier I do fear doesn’t represent a problem for voters in general
This guy should be being interviewed on CNN
This guy's got less credibility than Brandon.
@@P.90.603 IKR
Still more than trump
BOT.
@@P.90.603 You confuse late-arriving mail-in ballots with actual voters. Try again.
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged.
Big deal…
he is too well educated to understand just simple things :/
I’m sick of every time this guys is introduced. They says he’s correctly predicted 9 of last 10 elections. Only 2 (maybe 3) of the last 10 elections were even close.
So in my eyes, he’s (2 for 3)
Have you had your eyes checked lately?
@@-mattwood do you wanna explain where there’s a flaw in my reasoning. Let me rephrase it for you, so you can better understand. (7 out the Last 10) elections it was clearly known who’s gonna win the election before the election. Only 3 were tossups.
@@-mattwood He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged.
Big deal…
@@-mattwood please elaborate on your comment.
You can tell this guy on dope
I actually think it's the opposite. He's not on dope..... But he should be.
You need the possessive "s" on "guy." Dooe.
@@missmiss6516 you need to vote for Trump
Thank you professor Allen please 🙏🏽 let me know this peoples know is big mistake to push president Biden we have to stand by him 👏🏼👏🏼👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽👌👌👌✌️✌️✌️🤍🤍💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸💯💯💯💯💯😍😍
the bots are everywhere
FJB gojo
People act like he has done something so great. Ive also guessed the last few races correctly. When odds are 50/50 it is not a big feat.
Math iz eazy cuz there iz only 10 numbers.
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged.
Big deal…
He would’ve incorrectly guessed 5/10 of the elections using your logic.
Big deal, I predicted the Jets would lose the last 20 Super Bowls, and predict that they will not win any of the next 10 Super Bowls. But nobody’s asking me to be interviewed on national TV.
No one cares what you think the people who refuse to vote for him now their minds are not gonna change
Replace him or lose it’s simple
See told ya he has TDS 😂
Can you imagine what the Trump supporters would do if Republicans tried to pull Trump out of the election?!
I am tired of this discussion. Just vote!
10 and 11 could probably be consolidated into one key.
Japanese internment camps were established during World War II by President Franklin D. Roosevelt through his Executive Order 9066. From 1942 to 1945, it was the policy of the U.S. government that people of Japanese descent, including U.S. citizens, would be incarcerated in isolated camps. Enacted in reaction to the Pearl Harbor attacks and the ensuing war, the incarceration of Japanese Americans is considered one of the most atrocious violations of American civil rights in the 20th century.
It will be worse this time. What happens when these millions are tried to be returned and no one wants them back. Will it go the way of the Germans, when no one wanted the Jews ( immigrants, legal and illegal), Gays, Gypsy (homeless), media and party dissenters.
I hope he talks to Biden about this.
People told me they would vote for Biden even if he was dead! Anyone as long as it's not Trump.
You need a french president, America is not corrupt enough
Oh yeah..another unbiased historian.
We should listen to this.
This guy sounds a bit like a narcissist.
He is right on.
When he eventually admits Trumps going to win 😂
I will vote for Biden any day. Trump was fired once why should we vote for him again. No thank you!
Ridiculous!
Trumps clown campaigns are lunatic. Pepper are walking out in the middle of trumps clown show.
It already is a folly.
This guy is so set in his methodology that he doesn't realise that, post 2016, US politics is wildly different to what it was.
He predicted trump in 2016
He predicted Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, I’d say his record is still solid.
None of the political changes in the last 8 years invalidate his methodology.
Because his methodology is based on metrics; economics, administrative efficiency, foreign policy, a legitimate challenge to the incumbent. By the way, he hasn’t made a projection for this election as of yet.
@@TheTechnocrat78
He *is* saying that barring the unforeseen, Biden would be likely to win against Trump, and that replacing the incumbent with an unknown net candidate would make a Dem win far more difficult if.
Thank you, sir! 💙🇺🇲
Political analysts and pundits often try to shape public opinion and influence how people think about political issues. They may use various techniques, such as framing, spin, and selective presentation of facts, to advance their own narratives or agendas.
The "keys to the White House" concept, popularized by Allan Lichtman, is a prime example of this. While it may be an interesting and simplifying framework for understanding presidential elections, it's essential to remember that it's just one perspective among many.
It's crucial to maintain a critical eye and consider multiple sources, viewpoints, and factors when evaluating political information. By doing so, you can develop a more nuanced understanding of the issues and make informed decisions.
Pray this is true.
Now that the incumbency key is lost, what has he said about the election which seems to be Trump vs. Harris?
7 false keys against Harris. To me it already seemed like Trump was on the way to the WH, but now even his keys corroborate this.
Yes, Trump will win.
@@jonaszswietomierz8017 Yes, Trump will win.
@@jonaszswietomierz8017nope he said only 5 so far Harris can still win
That went off the rails quickly.
Professor is wrong this time
I find the keys interesting and i would believe them but the fact that he has the scandal key as win is kinda ridiculous. Whats happening now is definitely scandal
@@ianek9794 this is not a scandal
This guy keeps saying "Trump is in it for himself". What about Joe Biden?! He's in it for himself!
Trump is in it for himself. He''s trying to stay out of prison. Biden is in it for the American people. Our democracy (Trump would turn the U.S into a dictatorship). Our reproductive healthcare/IVF/birth control. (Trump would do a nation wide ban). Our Social Security/Medicare. (Trump is already promising his rich donors another tax cut). Our planet (Trump is selling our planet for every 1B$ from big oil.) Read Project 2025.
Democracy is an American issue. Democrats, Independents and Republicans needs to vote Biden/Blue all the way down the ballot to save our democracy.
0:18 More need to stand up and say it! 🇺🇸
Guess he was wrong
Yes, Trump will win.
Well, this guy was wrong, but now he's going to be "correct" when Trump beats Harris. Lichtman in November: "Told you so."
Yes, Trump will win.
I think the good Professor's clairvoyance powers have hit a wall.
God i hope he is right
Trump and Ted Nugent VP 24 FJB
@joycedecker7252 Ted Nugent? Lol I'm undecided, but Tim Scott sure. I think he's a better choice
Ps also FjB elder abuse
@@brydgetburke341Tim Scott is a good choice IMHO
@@MomentsInTrading same
Either way it's a wig out.
That's Right Allan. One One Side Haters Using Common Sense/ Repeating Here Say, while On The Other Side Its Hard To Discredit Reality Using Logic 😮 ❤ 💯
Dont forget to convict Trump for removing that mattress tag too
When you use the "Trump only cares about himself" you loose my respect.
@@stephbarbershop2518 I agree.
But it true
Totally agree, this guys appears very angry and one-sided, not intellectual at all.
What?? Are you saying you disagree with that comment? Just making sure I understand you correctly, I've never heard anyone say he isn't out for himself, even his own people say it is why I'm so surprised
@@rogerdebougainville889bahaha 😆 thank you! I needed that laugh tonight!
Using his own keys, I'm seeing at least 8 Falses with Biden. He has to be using subjective reasoning to get this down to only 5.
And yet he predicted the last several elections. 🤡
I think you're right... the guy who created the methodology and has use it to accurately predict 40 years of Presidents doesn't know what he's doing. Maybe YOU should have been interviewed.
@@MegaChallanger And he's the only life form in the entire Milky Way galaxy to have done so, I mean, I'm impressed.
No, you just don't understand the keys enough.
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged.
Big deal…
Harris president? No way! 😮
Judging from the comments, this channel definitely has a lot of MAGA viewers.
And the funny thing about him is that he is boastful like trump. They have so much in common a trump is very boasful and so is he? That's why he doesn't like trump if he doesn't believe there's other people there's another man like him.😂😂
He wont be talking biden loses.
He'll be back before the 2028 election bragging about being 9-11.
I don’t think anyone realizes that this man is getting old just like Joe Biden… The keys might be the same but the situation has changed and he needs to change his keys to what is happening now…. He keys are of the past now
@@P.90.603 the world had changed…. You cannot use the past to judge the future
Please Please stay presidential race mr.biden
@@judithbailey4861and yet he’s been right for 40 years.
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged.
Big deal…
I hope Trump winds just based on this jokes bias.
He only thinks that cause he doesn't want to be wrong lol
I don't usually fall into the conspiracy theories BUT I do believe Gore won in 2000 and our world would be so much better if he had been put into office and no I'm not ",trolling" or a "bot" this is MY opinion 🤷
That's called election denialism.
I’d say the scandal key has definitely flipped at this point.
He’s completely Senile !!! It doesn’t matter what you think should happen , your wrong because Biden is incapable of doing his job , and his job is one of the most important jobs on earth.
Who pays this creepy guy? He is a genius, almost as smart as joe.
I sense... fear about who is predicted to win.
@@-mattwood who might that be? I hope Joe stays in the race. I will be voting for President Trump. I fear the " free and fair" election.
Definitionately a Democrat
Always more correct and connected to reality than you are? I agree.
He claims republican
@@-mattwood I am an historian. It is not that difficult to predict elections
He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged.
Big deal…
@@RIDING_BEARS Well he isn't a good Republican
Just imagine if the Democrats replace Biden, putting someone else on the ticket, and then right after the Democratic Convention ends Lichtman makes his big prediction that everyone is waiting for and he says Trump is predicted to win! Oh my God, will THAT cause a fuss!
If Biden leaves, Trump will win. That is why it's such a horrible idea. Media, why don't you talk about Trump leaving the race. There are a lot more reasons for him to leave.
Folly? What is this, England!?
Andrew went to court Clinton didn't so no this ain't England
I hope so... England just trounced their far right party! Hurrah!
@@-mattwood
How does that help deaf blind and fingerless Ukrainians of color?
He can;t admit he was wrong in 2000. Kind of sounds like Trump, can't admitt when he's wrong.
It is been at the stage where "folly" is what happens anytime he does anything. Can't negotiate stairs, rambles incoherently. World is watching and is shocked that this has been allowed to even happen. Trump and co. are keen for Joe to stay on the ticket. I wonder why 😂
Ya' know what "folly" is? It's when you're so focused on the winning, and not the fact that our people would likely re-elect someone that has DEMENTIA (and that his son, wife and other unelected handlers are actually running OUR country). And that he only won the first time based on FEAR (or he would have been potus years ago). And that this person did a lot of sh*tty things in the past (lied publicly about his education, plagiarized multiple times, and made light of both once confronted about it ... I'll not mention the SA accusation, and his other inappropriate behavior with women). "Folly" is having tunnel vision, again, putting such great emphasis on the win, and not this demented person being our LEADER. And not expressing how awful that is for our people, our country, the WORLD. Our future. But hey, as we're at that point of no return, you can still boast that you called the win. Um 'kay. But this time, I very much believe you'll be proven wrong. Our world is changing beyond what your system can predict. RFK Jr. will be out next potus. A true leader this time. And just in the nick of time.
And yet... the prediction remains... Biden runs... Biden wins.
This dude wants Biden to run so he can easily predict a Trump win 😂
His advice is ridiculous. Being able to predict the result of elections, and having a system, does not rule out common sense. Biden did not just have a bad debate or a bad night. Biden could not say anything coherent during that the debate, due to mental decline. That is serious. You cannot have someone as president in that state of mind, have as a president, even if he would be elected, which will not happen. Trump is also a bad candidate, but the idea that one can beat a bad candidate, with a candidate that is even worse, is stupid. Replace Biden before it is too late and more damage has been done.
And yet... the prediction remains.
FJB gojo
@@-mattwood He’s done nothing special at all… He predicted Regan, Bush, Clinton (after an economic crash), Clinton again when everyone knew he would win. Got Bush wrong in 2000, he picked an easy one with Bush in 2004. Obama in 2008 wasn’t hard or 2012. A good luck was Trump 2016. 2020 was rigged.
Big deal…
Replacing President Biden would hand the election to Trump. Biden had a bad night. That is all. Did you see his North Carolina rally the next morning? He was fine! Trump has dementia. Biden stutters.
Gojo gojo!
Hari Seldon would be proud!
wow, that is one heck of a tupee! 10/10
Watch this interview: czcams.com/video/X4VemewGU6o/video.html Lichtman goes in depth about the keys and explains the science behind them and the historical research of elections dating back to 1800s that goes into them. He also explains why the disastrous debate does not impact Biden's chances of winning even though it is an unprecedented situation. Great interview!
But we don't know if Mr. Biden can stay healthy or of his health will decline before the election. I vote for Biden to step down and to let Harris to become the president.
This guy is full of it.Kamala? Keys? BS.
This is hilarious. Exactly how is Biden ever truthful?? Hahahaha
Replacing dementia would be folly. Good.
The guy is 80+, was overscheduled, jet lagged, and fighting a cold; it was late, he was tired. Add to that, he was thrown into the event virtually unmoderated, against someone whom debating is like trying to herd cats, or playing the proverbial game of chess against a pigeon. They shut Trump's mic off, but Joe could still hear every word, and I'd love to see how coherent any of us would look, dealing with trying to talk over around or through someone the audience cannot hear.
If there IS actual dementia or cognitive impairment, we need a clear medical diagnosis, and Biden needs to hand over the reins, his delegates, and the campaign finances to Kamala; then the whole party has to rally behind her. But I would think the GOP should look to the cognitive state of its own candidate, before worrying about Biden's.
@@StoryMing if? haha! Do you even hear yourself? Reality is not your strong suit.
@@StoryMing you should worry about your own cognitive state.
This guy is delusional.
Sensing.... fear.
@@-mattwood
Fear? Look at what biden has done already.
Biden is falling asleep every where he goes. He needs afternoon naps. Jill speaks to him as if he is a child. This is an embarrassment to all Americans
Fake news
Nice wig
so let Joe run and watch the Train go off the collapsed bridge at full speed into the river 2 Miles below
that's infested with Crocodiles ?
may as well, then Hunter can run for office and tell stories about how his dad got eaten by Crocs