A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War | Richard Iron CMG OBE
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- čas přidán 3. 05. 2023
- The Russo-Ukraine War is the bloodiest, most extensive and most dangerous war of our time. It has now been fourteen months since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and five months since Richard Iron's last strategic analysis of the war.
There is absolutely no certainty of how this war will evolve over the coming months nor how, eventually, it might end.
Richard Iron will explore the military, political and economic factors that could influence developments both on the ground and in the political arena. He will examine what each side wants to achieve and the likelihood of them achieving it. He will look particularly at the state of Russian internal politics, assess the true level of support in Russia for the war and the possibility of regime collapse.
Can either side achieve their military goals? How important is Western support for Ukraine and can Ukraine rely on it? How secure is the Putin regime and what may follow it? If his regime does collapse, what might that look like?
Not only is Perun acknowledged, cited and revered here, his subscribers just bounced AIIA views into the stratosphere 😊
That this empty talking Head cites a CZcams Gamer as fact, is proof Putin and Co are the only Adults in the room.
We're all Doomed.
48,000 views in 3 days vs 700 views in 3 weeks. wow!
TO THE MOON!
We love the funni PowerPoint man
Sometimes a good deed leads to good results :)
Well done Richard Iron.
Superb! And very nice to see Perun's work getting such acknowledgement and high praise!
Indeed - It shows Perun's standing and credibility.
@@teashea1 - It's truly a mark of merit for a mysterious disembodied voice on CZcams to be so acknowledged and respected!
A good part of his talk is just repeating the mainstream western media. He calls the pro Ukran8ans as THE REST OF THE WORLD which is BS.
Half of human beings are only in China and India, both allied with Russia.
Actually, it made me disappointed. Poeple like this guy is supposed to be the source for Perun's content. Now this guy basically cites Perun as a source, which means that it is an echo chamber.
@@albertdittel8898 - This speaker's specialty is different from Perun's. I'm not familiar with him (though many people in this comment section are), but he seems more of a generalist and an advisor, one who aggregates and summarizes from many sources, Perun being one of them that was very useful for him in this particular subject.
Perun doesn't know everything! But what he does know, he shares with us his research, analysis, and rarely, his conclusions and predictions.
Of course, we should always take information from any source with a proper dose of skepticism - and check up on their sources once in a while as well as search for our own independent sources.
I was glad to hear Perun is respected by professionals. I find his work very commendable and mostly credible 😉. I would hope our governments and think-tanks seek out information from a wide variety of sources - even if they're just a CZcams streamer on the internet! If the info is good, it's good!
And besides, Perun has LOADS of sources (some official, some open-source) listed in the description under each video.
I have been following perun's work every week since his first analysis, he deserves all the recognition. He is an example of how it is not necessary to be a military man to know what he is talking about.
He has a formal background in Defence, just not active service.
@@zhukie What @AGPtyutuutu try said was that it's not necessary to be a military man to know what _he_, meaning Perun, is talking about.
I'm not a military man but I can recognise the value of Perun and understand what he's talking about!
@@TimvanderLeeuw well said and put thankyou.Some folk will have missed that.
NOT !!! As I said above, do you think we're all stupid?
Consooming propaganda demands nothing except gullibility though.
From dorky unknown CZcams video gamer to global strategic, economic and logistics expert. Well done Perun. I remember hearing his first few slideshows over a year ago and thought "this is really good, but i bet not very many people will also enjoy it". I was wrong but I'm glad i was drawn to it. It feels like a reward; that i haven't been sucked into either sides propaganda.
Agreed. I told everyone I knew who was even remotely interested in what was happening about Perun. They ALL listen to his videos now. Then we all talk about the content on Mondays.
RE: "... i bet not very many people will also enjoy it." I shared your opinion that not many people will enjoy it. Sometimes it is enjoyable to be wrong. I know I'm delighted Perun has found a wider viewership. Perun's style is reminiscent of the Battlefield series produced some decades ago. It too was compared to watching paint dry by some critics (of questionable prowess). Chris, I share your sentiments.
I love how he did a couple of non-gaming vids ending with "this isn't going to be the norm for my channel, I don't really want to come home from work and talk about work" as he is cracking 500k views a vid.
Expert? He basically just regurgitates Ukrainian MOD points
@@rebd113 you haven't seen any perum videos at all.
Perun!!! I agree! He's the most well-researched CZcamsr on military acquisition and analysis! ❤️ And he makes you laugh while you learn. So enjoyable!
Indeed he does!
I've listened to every single one of his analysis. He is an Australian national treasure.
Personal lifegoal is to kick his ass in Warhammer 😹
@@WackadoodleMalarkey LOL gl
Perun just parrots neocon think tank (a la ISW) PR narratives, and make up numbers that sound plausible to rubes. Apparently the Russians have run out of tanks and missiles about 20 times by now LMAO
Holy crap Perun called out by AIIS that’s pretty cool. Not that it isn’t obvious but that is amazing. Colas to see him recognized.
exactly, i came here to say the same thing lol
Cheers bro il drink to that!
I'm fairly sure he is inside man.
That's awesome, I fully agree!
Now, I enjoy Peruns format over this one, but this was also an informative and interesting presentation!
@@TheRezroif he is it was very well done. The gammer channel was quite convincingly a hobbyist channel for several years.
Once again cheers to Australian intelligence efforts on behalf of the free world.
Bravo for your call out of @Perun. His content is remarkable and as you said, brilliantly researched. He deserves the credibility that your endorsement will bring him. Well done!
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NO matter the U.S. and NATO countries pouring in weapons worth 35.7 billion dollars Ukraine failed to make any territorial gains since 2022 after Kherson. Ukraine is bogged down and keeps blabbering about throwing Russia back to borders of 1991 which is a pipe dream. The U.S. will be forcing Ukraine to a negotiated settlement soon no matter all they hyped offensive or (stand by Ukraine as long as it takes) that’s weird and they know it!
Used to think that but you’re just saying that because Perun’s opinions align with your own. Guy isn’t as objective as he claims. He’s scared to be truly objective for the fear of his audience
@@Husein_B58 nah
@@Husein_B58 Perun's views certainly don't align with those of a no-content fake-account vatnik bot like you.
@@Husein_B58 got any type of evidence to back up your bullshit?
I always felt Perun was one to trust with his anlyses. It's so nice to see he gets acknolegded here for his work. His presentaiotns are something i alwas cant wait to see.
Imagine how funny it would be if this guy literally is Perun
Empty brane.
My boy Perun getting his props. Well done Richard, I see game is recognizing game.
Perun is absolutely the best analyst anywhere on CZcams!!
Nonsense.
@@GlobalDrifter1000 LOL. Don't be jealous
@@williamtran6024 we are not in the same world. Nothing to be jealous of.
He is good but my panties are not wet for him.
he talks so much sht it isnt funny he knows nothing of the russian military just another aussia bogan
It’s all propaganda. He starts off with the failed Russian winter offensive, only problem is that no one except western propagandists have ever claimed there would be one. After that is of the same theme. At least I didn’t hear the Russians are attacking with shovels again.
Perun is a legend. Makes the most seemingly dull topics come alive!
I've come to see his videos as typical consultant's reports: stuffed with platitudes and common-sense observations delivered with great confidence; serial naming of salient issues given fairly empty treatment except for a few insights and (very rarely) conclusions; overlong videos stretching past an hour which might be done in 20 minutes. He looks at the right topics but it embarrasses me that his confident and fast-talking style threw me off for nearly a year.
Dum DUm
If you would have told me a few years ago that I'll be consuming content such this in a regular basis I would have totally laughed at you. I guess stumbling across Perun's first video about this was the rabbit hole I ended up in 😂
Good job!! Nice to hear Perun get such high praise.
Kevin McCarthy seems very much behind funding Ukraine in recent days when asked by a Russian journalist.
Wagner have burnt themselves out and the massive internal squabbles with the top brass undermines the whole war effort.
Both these relatively new factors make Putin's waiting game look like another disastrous play.
Yeah, russia'll collapse anyday now, just like the last 20 times these think tank level shills "predicted" it. The lowest denom just make up what they want to hear, such is the human condition.
Perun! If anyone hasn't watched his video on 'how does corruption destroy armies' they are in for a treat. It is witty, knowledgeable and informative.
@@occamraiser Perun is informative if your goal is to perfectly parrot and rationalize the latest nato PR lines. It's perfectly really for people who "believe" they can learn war from youtube.
His comment at 0:12:55 about Perun just put paid to my curiosity about who Perun is. Guess I'm not gonna exercise my search-fu on that after all.
@@ronaldbell7429 Perun is a CZcamsr who currently posts weekly videos on various topics on Ukraine and defense economics in general: czcams.com/channels/C3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q.html
The videos are generally as unbiased as possible and really informative. If you're interested in the war in Ukraine, you should at least check him out.
Wow. A shout out to Perun's analysis. That is impressive.
Wonderful and brilliant analysis, thank you! And thank you for mentioning Perun, who‘s presentations are a must see for the interested viewers.
Is there any analysis here ? Zero evidences and etc. ChatGPT generated talk perhaps.
This guy tell's the western narative, he is nowhere near the center info wise
He just repeats what ukraine "imagines"
This conflict will end the one way it can
And no one talks about this war/operatiion in real tearms, ukr wants their soil back, the rus wants to denazifi ukraine, if one can listen to zelensky, than it wld be wise to hear putin as well
I'm not for putin, or any gov for that matter, but the guy doesnt play war, russia is doing at least normal against large country pumped by western weapons for nearly a decade
So no, this is not a wonderfull and briliant analysis!!!
Good to see Perun being given credit. Excellent analysis. Thank you.
BS.
And I wait every Sunday for perun but always good to hear from other commentators on this or indeed any subject.perun is amazing but other informed commentators especially which have this guy’s experience in the forces and his position in them adds to our overview on this subject basically he’s a proper military man of a rank that both understands the political and the military aspects of what he’s talking about. Please do more stuff yes I do love peruns stuff but I’ve really enjoyed your talk tonight and respect and understand your view on it
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NO matter the U.S. and NATO countries pouring in weapons worth 35.7 billion dollars Ukraine failed to make any territorial gains since 2022 after Kherson. Ukraine is bogged down and keeps blabbering about throwing Russia back to borders of 1991 which is a pipe dream. The U.S. will be forcing Ukraine to a negotiated settlement soon no matter all they hyped offensive or (stand by Ukraine as long as it takes) that’s weird and they know it!
Knows notting.
Perun being quoted in absolutely fantastic! ⚡️
As an American that first question woke me up! Incredible to hear it from another, albeit an incredibly important ally. Fantastic
And I don't think he gave the most obvious answer. In the big competition with China, God forbid it transforms in a Taiwan war or worse, why would you want your only real ally of any significance (namely Europe) to be battered and resentful? In the idiotic war of Putin in Ukraine, U.S. are not losing a single piece of the most important capital of any country - the people. Ukrainians are doing all the fighting. And the U.S. wants to leave them and Europe in general getting exhausted, weaken and disillusioned with America over what? Money? Or some weapons that need to be modernized and replaced from time to time anyway? That would be the dumbest strategic move ever.
NO matter the U.S. and NATO countries pouring in weapons worth 35.7 billion dollars Ukraine failed to make any territorial gains since 2022 after Kherson. Ukraine is bogged down and keeps blabbering about throwing Russia back to borders of 1991 which is a pipe dream. The U.S. will be forcing Ukraine to a negotiated settlement soon no matter all they hyped offensive or (stand by Ukraine as long as it takes) that’s weird and they know it!
Let the slotter continue. Ignorance kills.
This has been the most objective,articulate discussion on the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Thank you.
Richard .Russia has conserved all of it's forces while destroying the majority of the the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian military will only last 6 months more before complete collapse. Ukraine is being destroyed while the west wages a proxy war. The ratio of dead is approx 8 or 10 to one Russian . This fool in Victoria shows his corrupted beleifs . Absurd idiot
Sounds like you need some Perun in your life my friend.
Also check out William Spaniel
@@Slipstreaminsano I also would welcome such a mind beside me.
this is the most propagandist fake news bullshit I've ever heard
I really liked this. Thank you. I will try to make a comment to Perun that he received a compliment from the speaker. It's helpful to me that the speaker feels that Perun is well-informed.
When did he do that
@@Funkaheltok Just before speaking about the air war.
@@Funkaheltok , the speaker mentions Perun at 12:40
@@Funkaheltok did you watch the video
@@planetcaravan2925 this might come as a shock. But it is possible to miss a sentence in a hour long presentation
Fascinating, lots of cold, hard home truths. Perun is indeed a font of all knowledge and research. Thank you 🇬🇧
Quality carries a long way. And Perun has earned this for sure!
@@MrGreg771 Ok Russian bot
@@MrGreg771 Ok Russian bot
@@MrGreg771 Ok Russian bot
@@MrGreg771 Ok Russian bot
Perun does very impressive analysis. He demonstrates what the Internet 'could' become, but hasn't due to garbage and money-grubbers.
No, it’s due to the army of average people who are everywhere on the internet (and in the traffic and in politics).
Great analysis and interesting arguments, and indeed close to what our experts say.
Best regards from Germany to our Australian friends 👏🏻
Academic from la la land.
Perun is the best channel on You tube relating to this war.
K2 brigade
Did I hear a shoutout to Perun? Ayo, our defense economics teacher being noticed much more now!
I thought that this would just another talking head about Ukraine and almost missed this. I'm so happy I decided to view this. Excellent clear thinking and expression of the thoughts.
Perun is fast becoming a living Legend!So pleased you mentioned him!
This was a great presentation. Reminded me a lot of listening to Perune and the length was about the same too.
Surprised to hear you mention Perun! His channel is definitely amazing.
Good to see Perun acknowledge & credited to be well informed & a trusted source .
The problem of Russian Air fightets have a big advantage over Ukraines air fighters in range , the Russians can launch a 70 mile range air to air missile from below the horizon & this technique has yet to be overcome by Ukraines pilots .
This middle is taking them down before the know its coming & that's why they need F15 ASAP or the Technical leap forward by Russia needs to be countered.
They couldn't keep f15s in the air I don't think. The cost per hr is about 30k where the F16 is about 7k. The problem with F16 is it's intake being so close to the ground and the weak landing gear means it needs clean smooth air fields. Something Ukraine doesn't have in spades
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NO matter the U.S. and NATO countries pouring in weapons worth 35.7 billion dollars Ukraine failed to make any territorial gains since 2022 after Kherson. Ukraine is bogged down and keeps blabbering about throwing Russia back to borders of 1991 which is a pipe dream. The U.S. will be forcing Ukraine to a negotiated settlement soon no matter all they hyped offensive or (stand by Ukraine as long as it takes) that’s weird and they know it!
@@mikedrop4421 Eghm... Gripen.
@@TheRezro yeah obviously but there aren't a few thousand extra Gripens laying around
Gripen is everything Ukraine needs but good luck trying to convince the Swedes to part with any of them!
Thank you so much, Richard. One of the most illuminated talks on Russo-Ukraine War I have ever listened.
Bull and also sheets. many piles.
Ha, ha, ha.......@@spudwesth
yes Perun is an absolute Gem
Love seeing Perun get mentioned by all of these other (in many cases) accredited academic outlets; I’ve been watching since his first video and find myself refresh spamming Patreon / CZcams for his weekly release. Love the sense of humor “because this is Slavic history and happy endings are banned” 😂😂😂
I absolutly agree that Perun has the best Russia-Ukraine war analysis in the internet.
Give Ukraine an air force now already! Glory to the heroes. Very nicely done indeed.
👍👍👍👍
As a Ukraininan I fully agree. Thanks for your support! We'll always remember that.
@@bsliptsov There are millions of people in the USA that support you and wish our government does even more! We follow you daily.
@@normanbaratelli4651 Much appreciated!
This is the unbiased and brilliant analysis of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Great information and projections. The very best I have heard
Lol... unbiased, maybe. Uninformed, certainly.
Non propaganda talk is welcome he seems to say what is not what we or Russia for that matter wants to hear just the way things are it is what it is
valueless. lies.
Wow! A shout out to Perun!
Good video. We all need to support free speech and democracy, where ever its threatened.
Let’s do that in the West, where democracy and free speech are vanishing
An excellent presentation, combining breadth and depth of vision and analysis. Great to see Perun's work receiving the acknowledgement it deserves.
Except is now way out of date. I can't understand how supposedly learned experts, keep hoping that if they repeat the mantra enough times, it will magically come to be.
😂😂😂
So sad. Dum sheet rules.
+1 Perun is amazing. Great to see him getting acknowledged by someone so distinguished.
Good talk. Nice to see Perun getting acknowledged for the excellent analytical work he is putting out on YT.
This is my first time hearing this gentleman speak, and I find his knowledge and situational comprehension to be outstanding. Very well done!
Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, The Duran, they are the best source for information on Ukraine war
7 days later.... Here's Storm Shadows!
Given Perun's reluctance to discuss Australia's position with respect to the Ukraine conflict for some fairly obvious reasons, I found the section of Richard's presentation regarding what we as a nation can do to influence any sort of positive outcome in the war to be particularly interesting. I'll not say I agree categorically with everything that was put forward, but this was certainly a very well thought and carefully considered presentation. Excellent content, thanks AIIA.
Indeed.
The generous contribution of Storm Shadow missiles by the UK government highlights their dedication to helping Ukraine during these challenging times
Poland, the Baltics and the UK have been the consistently supportive countries who openly advocate for Ukraine to WIN, UNEQUIVOCALLY. Not just "hold the Russians back". America should also take this position asap and supply long range rockets
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NO matter the U.S. and NATO countries pouring in weapons worth 35.7 billion dollars Ukraine failed to make any territorial gains since 2022 after Kherson. Ukraine is bogged down and keeps blabbering about throwing Russia back to borders of 1991 which is a pipe dream. To save Bidens face facing elections challenges of low approval with Americans who think Biden is a mess! The U.S. will be forcing Ukraine to a negotiated settlement soon no matter all they hyped offensive or (stand by Ukraine as long as it takes) that’s weird and they know it!
@@zhukie indeed we should. Indeed we should 👍🇺🇦
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Yes, they have to make for sending the Depleted Uranium munitions, when the Russians blew the lot, its has now irradated vast amounts of Western Ukraine.
I love reading the comments written by tankies and Muscovites. Their tears are satisfying.
Great speaker. Definitely one of OO7's handlers
lol
Solid and restrained analysis. Well worth the watch, and the subscribe. Especially appreciate Gen. Iron's shout out to Perun's excellent work as well. BZ
BS !
Perun does excellent work, no question about it.
Here in the United States some have noticed our Secretary of State's visit to Kazakhstan with what is being called the "Five plus One. The visit occurred a few days before the Chinese prime mister's visit to Moscow. On his way home, Xi also visited Kazakhstan. At about the same time, Kazakhstan confiscated Russia's Soyoz facility. We understand that much discussion with Blinken concerned how Kazakhstan and neighboring countries might avoid western sanctions while necessarily trading with Russia.
Seems important in the current environment of shifting international tectonics.
Greeting from central Europe and thanks, interesting info
BTW US and China just announced normalization of they relations
Endless war good.
Hands down the best analysis on the war so far. Richard so perfectly puts things into perspective and says some unpopular but real truths. Appreciated from an allied partner who values objectiveness vs propaganda.
Is rhis guy on drugs?
This guy just telling billshit all the way...
Whatttt.
Thoroughly impressed with Richard Iron, my thanks to the AIIA for puplishing this talk.
Wonderfully lucid analysis. Will pass along to friends here in the US.
deluding yore frends
Thank you for creating and sharing this excellent interview.
No.
This was great and nice to see such a mention of Perun, 12:42
Thanks, excellemt presentation.
. And yes, i agree perun is quite something
I appreciate the thoughtful and comprehensive analysis free from hyperbole.
This man lives in a self made clouds. Wsste of time listening
Overall nicely done
12:30 Nice recognition of Perun. Very professional.
You think he knows who Perun is? :-)
@@jannarkiewicz633 Don't know, don't care. He was very professional in giving credit to him.
@@airborneranger-ret I respect Perun being anonymous a lot. I would find it interesting if his name is known and people just use his call sign. It shows the level of respect people have for Perun that they treat a CZcams name like "Professor Jane Doe." Cheers!!! I wish Ukraine the Latest would interview Perun. I am stunned after a year they have not.
Wow, Perun got mentioned here, awesome!
The best analysis at all levels, in a very long time.
I agree with Mr Iron's complimentary comments on Perun. A good presentation and well worth a watch.
Offical props for Perun🎉
I'm inclined to believe those casualty numbers are much much higher than US estimates and closer to Ukrainian ones. Even just the amount of visually confirmed tank kills is staggering.
I think the numbers on both sides are fudged.
200,000 Ukraine casualties. keep it going NATO
Great video and so happy to see Perun being acknowledged. I fell upon his videos some months ago and am absolutely hooked.amazing in depth analysis.
Cheers from Poland, I found Australian CZcams being information space I feel most comfortable in 😅
Thorough and insightful analysis of facts on the ground, capabilities, and consequences of various choices. The West must hold firm in supporting Ukraine. My hope is that Biden will win again and not repeat a mistake similar to his abandoning of Afghanistan.
Trump set up the Afghanistan fiasco by basically surrendering to the Taliban and releasing thousands of prisoners in advance. What went wrong on Biden's watch was the failure to plan for the chance that the Afghan army would instantly fold. Not exactly a Biden mistake, more like incompetence by people who were already in their jobs before he took over.
As an American there's a bitterly tragically truthful euphemism that goes when the Dems and Reps agree on something, the taxpayer is really going to get screwed..
And I have seen no other but no less solid bilateral agreement from members of both sides of the aisle and that consensus says
_Fcuk uoY Putin_
More Dementia Biden! More mutilated American children! More baby killing! More American racial communism!
The Satan Party founded by FDR only ever descends deeper into evil and madness.
Us is basically a non-factor they just throw money at Ukrainian. Europe already provides nuclear deterrent and they are acualy providing most of the equipment that has been given and will be given remember America needs to transport things across the Atlantic causing anything sent to cost more rather then just using trains or literally moving stuff over the land border and there’s no reason they will ever not support Ukrainian as they would rather fight a proxy war then have there own citizens and infrastructure destroyed by war on Europe’s territory and with Russian state media speaking about nuking the capital of Germany and other European country’s. Losing America is a pain yes but it won’t actually stop Ukrainian fighting capabilities or the support in European country’s.
Where are the facts? Some wishes, and conjectures.
Clear concise and honest analysis.
I totally disagree.
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NO matter the U.S. and NATO countries pouring in weapons worth 35.7 billion dollars Ukraine failed to make any territorial gains since 2022 after Kherson. Ukraine is bogged down and keeps blabbering about throwing Russia back to borders of 1991 which is a pipe dream. To save Bidens face facing elections challenges of low approval with Americans who think Biden is a mess! The U.S. will be forcing Ukraine to a negotiated settlement soon no matter all they hyped offensive or (stand by Ukraine as long as it takes) that’s weird and they know it!
A lecture on the genocide of the Aboriginals I would like to hear from this gentleman
I wish everyone would put the date *at which the talk was given* into the description. Many Institutes and think tanks only get around to publishing such talks months after the event and for topics such as this, the date is really important. So please AIIA - amend your info.
Excellent analysis from a very difficult topic, and from military and political and diplomatic perspectives. Very good understanding of the values behind this war. I am so happy I can just watch lectures like this in Hungary. :)
When I understand that such dudes put on like a "white coat" of the expert analyst, then I want to shout "Hallelujah to social networks!" (and auto-translators from Ukrainian and Russian ) , which give us all live, raw information not spoiled by the propaganda narrative of Western TV and such types of "analysts".
In Hungary out of all countries in Europe you can get access to the truth, yet you're sitting here and listening to this crappy Russophobic propaganda from a so-called expert simply because it fits your own sentiments. What a shame..
Well give Orban enough time and he will change that.
Likewise, from the Czech Republic. We have good analyses here, but not as clear and concise as this one. We get better detailed everyday news from OSINT than overall analyses. We´re too close to it all, I suppose.
I watched this guy from day one , seen every single one of his hour long videos🤷🏼♂️🚬
"Rules Based Order", Where can one find the rule book? I love to know about these rules.
Thanks for an informative thoughtful analysis!
Now, something that has struck me over the course of this war, is the difficulty with which analysts has tried to understand what the Russian strategy really is, and whether Putin is placing his bets on the shirt, medium, or long term.
Now, the way I see it, is that the war itself was a result of diminishing domestic policy space, and that Putins position was under sufficient pressure, so that domestic concerns where driving foreign- and security policy, and not the other way around, which one often assumes.
Now, this line of reasoning has some consequences for analysing Russian strategy, because, if domestic policy action space is driving also its foreign and security policy, then it is reason to believe that domestic policy action space will also set limits to the ability to strategic planning of coherent battlefield operations.
Hence, I do not believe that Putin is opting for a long war of attrition. Instead, I think Putin is caught in an endless row of dilemmas, where he is forced to choose between short-term solutions of which none are particularly good, and where a coherent strategy can not be found.
As a result, the Russian campaign is primarily chaotic, without any coherent overarching strategy, including no real choice regarding a long, a medium term, or a short war.
However, I'm pretty sure Putin would really like this war to be over a soon as possible, and the fact that there's no end in sight, primarily tells us that he do not have the means to end it on his own terms, and not the political action space to offer any compromise that may end it on mutually acceptable terms.
Which, in turn, tells me that the idea that Putin's regime will not survive this war, appears to be a very plausible one.
100s of Russ. women are raped every day by Nazi troops.
Hello, Canadian here. This was really interesting, thank you very much. I don't think it's a question of Australia "can" make a difference. Australia does make a difference in the world.
Providing China with the resources it needs to be a world power. Very important.
Very good synopsis. Thank you AIIA.
I would like to offer my gratitude to both Perun and Richard Iron for doing their best to ensure that the public is adequately informed.
Irony. Lol
u meen disinformed
21:50 - they also tried, and failed, to hold various nations in Africa hostage by delaying the transportation of Ukrainian wheat by ship, possibly to create an artificial famine which could have prompted the west to push for a truce.
Thanks for mentioning this. But they still manage to block some of the Ukrainian cargo ships, or steal the grain. The fact that Ukraine is one the largest exporters of grain and fertilizers to Africa doesn´t get enough attention, and yet is extremely important.
@@martavdz4972 its extremely important as Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, maize and barley, and yes its likely large amounts was stolen but as the African nations mentioned they dont care who they buy it from as long as it keeps coming.
Russia has not once ounce of compassion and it was more then willing to use other nations populations as a bargaining chip. The problem was resolved more or less with the grain corridor but this year with various lands not being seeded and various areas filled with destroyed Russian equipment and mined it may make it a serious problem this year with what can be harvested.
This could push for more nations providing wheat and other cereal grains which is likely to drive up costs locally and could put more pressure for the war to end by an unhappy citizenry hopefully the counter attack will drive the russians back.
Really! When the wheat sailed , most of it ended up in Europe causing a glut and driving down prices for locally grown product and bringing their own farmers out in protest.
Perun is becoming a final boss in this game. BTW - this presentation could have used some powerpoint slides ... just saying Slava Ukraini
Do you know what Slava means?
I didn't get here from Perun, but as a diligent watcher, it's amazing to hear the shout-out to him here!
As the lady has said, His well presented indepth analysis had me riveted as well, Thank u very much.
Wonderful insights and perspective. I'm always unnerved by hearing what I've been hearing in other places, but this analysis won me over with its apparent candor about the difficulties Ukraine will face in its upcoming offensive, and the offensive's uncertain prospects. The following points were of particular interest to me: Western vs Soviet air defense density, Ukraine's potential uses for western fighter jets, how wars end, Putin's paths to winning the war and their prospects, sentiment in Russia, and the possible post-war future of Russia.
I weigh whether Ukraine would be best off focusing on maneuver or on artillery warfare. Should they try for Kharkhiv-style counteroffensives, Kherson-style ones, or merely on winning the attritional battle through longer-range fires (HIMARS, cruise missiles, etc.). They have been effective in all of the tactics above, and each carries a different balance of short vs long-term risks, and differing prospects dependent on current Ukrainian and Russian capabilities and preparation.
Mad going from having a gaming channel to getting name dropped by these guys
A very nice, balanced and unbiased analysis which are hard to find.
More of this please. Thank you.
Excellent in-depth analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Hope to see more of your insights online. Thank You.
Very shallow.
Well done. You are right. This time when the change comes, the world must help Russia establish institutions built on international norms.
Thanks for acknowledging Perun's analysis
Is there any particular good reason why you'd upload a video in 360p resolution here in the year 2023? I can't think of any.
Well said and thought Mr. Iron. War in general and this war in particular are political acts. Much is at stake but if we are wise we may be able to insure a safer, more secure future.
Again, Australia comes out on top with its quality of reporting and debate ❤️🇷🇴
They sound more like a hired Russian consultant, providing critique for Russian military improvement . This sh’t doesn’t need to be reported publicly, unless of course the Australians wish the Russians to improve the Ukrainian slaughter.
@@kengollon9537 Yes, he forgot that the US overthrew the democratically elected President of Ukraine in 2014, installing a nationalist junta, backed by far-right militias, who immediately attacked the people in the East, when they protested against losing their democratic franchise. When they did what a good American would do, they took up arms to protect their families.
The regime killed over 14,000 civilians in the Donbass over 7, now 8 years, while the powers that be armed them and turned a blind eye.
On 20 Feb 2022, the Ukrainian army began a massive artillery barrage on the civilians of Donetsk City.
The OSCE observers recorded a 50x increase in military activity from baseline.
On 23 Feb 2022, the Russians intervened to stop a massacre, anyone that says it was unprovoked is misinformed or just lying.
OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) Daily Report 41/2022 issued on 22 February 2022 | OSCE
www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512842
Perun watcher also. Fair play to giving him a shout. Also noticed Beau of the 5th column gives him respect as well.
Excellent speaking forum this man was a very wise & knowledge versed on Ukrainian/ Russian war ! I agree get rid of Putin ,by the people an excellent start to peace , we so need !
Thank you for the summary as viewed from down under. Very clear.
brilliant - articulate - efficient - balanced - insightful -
I'm an old American left-wing sort, and an amateur student of history. Over my long years observing my world, I've been repeatedly struck by the typical failure of most humans to appreciate the lessons of history and that's why we, as a species, are condemned to repeat it. (Nod to Santayana.) Putin's doing almost exactly the same thing Stalin did...throw men and equipment in as large a numbers as possible, irrespective of horrible losses. It only succeeded in WWII because Germany was militarily engaged on so many fronts it was impossible for them to defend them all, and thus wound up losing them all. (Having a raving lunatic as a leader also didn't help.) Putin does not have this problem. One would think that the Chamberlain example of waving papers in the face of psychopathic would-be conquerors would have taught everyone the lesson of how one deals with bullies. I learned this in school, and the lesson has helped me many times: my family moved frequently, so I was always 'the new kid'. The new kid is inevitable challenged by the class bully, because that's how bullies work. After a couple of failed attempts at accomodaton, I learned that as soon as that chap's fist went up, a quick shot to the nose, mouth or eye from me usually ended the whole affair. Yes, occasionally I went home with a bruised cheek or split lip, and wound up being lectured by some sage adult about 'fighting not settling things' (which was flatly a lie), but it always got whatever dictator-in-the-making off my back. Perhaps we should actually encourage playground fights in the early years, so more people learn how to deal with the inevitable aggression of other humans...and perhaps some of those wanna-be world conquerors will take their black eyes and bloody noses as an object lesson in the futility of war. China...maybe you should consider Sun Tzu's point about the only war you truly win is the one you didn't fight.
TWIITT. That is what NATO is doing. killing huge
The conversation appears logical yet it all stands on the premise that the situation remains static. Lately I saw the west increasing its help to Ukraine. I hope I’m right.
Ukraine must win the war.
Glory to Ukraine.
Richard Iron and Perun are excellent. So is Justin Bronk (from the UK). Does the US have any analysts of the same quality? If it does, I am not aware of them.
Don't leave out Anders Puck Nielsen from Denmark. His videos are short but incredibly insightful.
Retired U.S. generals Ben Hodges and H. R. McMaster are pretty good.
Starbaby USAF Retired - has done great analysis on Ukrainian air power and what it would actually take to get Western jets into Ukrainian hands. He's done several AMA's on the 10 percent true channel
@@catc8927 Think Jake Broe interviewed General Hodges. Jake good for a goings-on catch-up.
Col McGregor, Judge Napolitano, interviews variety of USA specialist, Scott Ritter, Tony Shaffer, Alastair Crooke, - Larry Johnson, John Meirshmier