Who is actually challenging for the Premier League?

Sdílet
Vložit
  • čas přidán 28. 11. 2023
  • Try The Athletic for FREE for 30 days: www.theathletic.com/tifoirl
    🎧 Listen to the 10 minute Daily Football Briefing here: podfollow.com/1677588464/view
    As the midpoint in the season nears the Premier League table is starting to take shape. Five or six teams are in close proximity at the top.
    But which of these teams look best equipped to win the title? Sam Tighe explains.
    Follow Tifo Football:
    Twitter: / tifofootball_
    Facebook: / tifofootball
    Instagram: / tifofootball_
    Listen to the Tifo Football podcast:
    Apple Podcasts: bit.ly/TifoFootPod
    Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/06QIGhq...
    About Tifo Football:
    Tifo loves football. We create In-depth tactical, historical and geopolitical breakdowns of the beautiful game.
    We know there’s an appetite for thoughtful, intelligent content. For stuff that makes the complicated simple.
    We provide analysis on the Premier League, Champions League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, World Cup and more.
    Our podcasts interview some of the game’s leading figures. And our editorial covers football with depth and insight.
    Founded in 2017 and became a part of The Athletic in 2020. For business inquiries, reach out to tifo@theathletic.com.
    Music sourced from epidemicsound.com
    Additional footage sourced from freestockfootagearchive.com
    #EPL #PremierLeague #Football
  • Sport

Komentáře • 785

  • @andimohammadthareq6687
    @andimohammadthareq6687 Před 5 měsíci +579

    We all know Pep gonna casually drop 15 winstreak in February-April.

    • @emilevangheem6165
      @emilevangheem6165 Před 5 měsíci +69

      When KDB and Stones come back it could look very bad for the other teams

    • @Panthersfan226
      @Panthersfan226 Před 5 měsíci

      ​@@emilevangheem6165 Turns out, 115 financial violations does help make you a better side.

    • @astrothelad
      @astrothelad Před 5 měsíci +38

      15 wins 0 FFP deductions lmao

    • @dillontaylor2569
      @dillontaylor2569 Před 5 měsíci +5

      @@astrotheladinvestigation ongoing my friend, we’ll see

    • @makavelismith
      @makavelismith Před 5 měsíci +10

      He may do, or Klopp might. He's also capable of that kind of form. I think Liverpool have the best 11 in the PL and that they are still kinda settling into the team and also Klopp's new way of playing. They are so close to locking into place though, and look unplayable at times.

  • @IICJZII
    @IICJZII Před 5 měsíci +1178

    Seeing Aston Villa winning the league would be a mad one

    • @mmsjejrinside385
      @mmsjejrinside385 Před 5 měsíci +170

      More chance of Ten Hag and Pep waking up with hair tomorrow

    • @InstigatorDJ
      @InstigatorDJ Před 5 měsíci +15

      Dont worry, youre safe.

    • @erjut
      @erjut Před 5 měsíci +20

      Even winning the league is pretty hard for Arsenal so, goodluck

    • @ryanhindley174
      @ryanhindley174 Před 5 měsíci +2

      hope they don't

    • @simstander5471
      @simstander5471 Před 5 měsíci +3

      I am going to put money on them just in case

  • @bigman25plus25
    @bigman25plus25 Před 5 měsíci +690

    As an Arsenal fan it’s soo nice to have a good defence at last. We all want to score 5 goals every game but the art of defending is also beautiful!

    • @arpansagar6453
      @arpansagar6453 Před 5 měsíci +50

      We haven't had a world class defensive unit in almost two decades. I mean our backline Jan onwards will be INSANE. White, Saliba, Gabriel and Timber with Zinchenko and Tomi off the bench

    • @joeparas
      @joeparas Před 5 měsíci +13

      I'm just glad someone finally mentioned it, lol. Every pod I listen to lately is just like 'And Arsenal win...moving on.'

    • @werewolf1803
      @werewolf1803 Před 5 měsíci +2

      I used to be an Arsenal fan. Now we have the Indian Super League, and I have my own local team.
      Arsenal winning the league now won't mean anything to me. I wish they had won during the Wenger Era.

    • @joeparas
      @joeparas Před 5 měsíci

      lol...okay?@@werewolf1803

    • @morrisonsman1493
      @morrisonsman1493 Před 5 měsíci +31

      ​@@werewolf1803what are you yapping about

  • @14loosecannon
    @14loosecannon Před 5 měsíci +567

    Arsenal were arguably a Saliba injury away from winning the league last season and it's impressive how well they've done this time round considering their multiple injuries. They probably still need to improve in attack but keeping Rice, Saliba and Gabriel fit will be key.

    • @alexskinner5858
      @alexskinner5858 Před 5 měsíci +7

      I don't think we can improve our attack without impacting our defence. Its one or the other and right now I prefer our current system.

    • @14loosecannon
      @14loosecannon Před 5 měsíci +34

      @@alexskinner5858 I would disagree in that there's been a lot of disruption to Arsenal's midfield and attack this season compared to this stage last season. So if they can get more consistency in selection, i.e. keeping the same front 3 and midfield for a run of games, the attack should improve without compromising the defence.

    • @tnix80
      @tnix80 Před 5 měsíci +6

      I wouldn't take another CB in the world

    • @thrilla72
      @thrilla72 Před 5 měsíci +5

      They've done so well despite injuries because players in key positions i.e. Saliba have remained fit

    • @suffyc9499
      @suffyc9499 Před 5 měsíci +4

      maybe when timber is back our attack will benefit, he was amazing in those few games he played

  • @lLoveNoobs
    @lLoveNoobs Před 5 měsíci +207

    Unai should be on the thumbnail instead of Ten hag tbh

    • @seanrichardson3485
      @seanrichardson3485 Před 5 měsíci +17

      Instead of Ten Hag and Ange, tbh

    • @lLoveNoobs
      @lLoveNoobs Před 5 měsíci

      @@seanrichardson3485 lets give Ange a chance 🥲🤣

    • @anandmahamuni5442
      @anandmahamuni5442 Před 5 měsíci +3

      We literally are 6th 2 points of Howe ffs

    • @seanlee2977
      @seanlee2977 Před 5 měsíci +26

      ​@@anandmahamuni5442exactly
      U guys are challenging for top 4, not the league title

    • @Profilejc98
      @Profilejc98 Před 5 měsíci +29

      ​@@anandmahamuni5442Exactly, you're behind Unai. Not to mention the scrappy wins doesn't give much confidence over the season - definitely not title contenders

  • @michaelcumberbatch831
    @michaelcumberbatch831 Před 5 měsíci +95

    Honestly, this was a really great analysis on which teams are most likely to take the title. Two things I would add that are also extremely important is the amount of home vs. away games each team has to play and the number of top 8 teams left to play that could realistically give any team a run for its money. For example, while Liverpool are in 3rd right now, they have already played, Manchester City, Tottenham, Newcastle, and Chelsea away from home. Excellent video!

    • @Ben-gd4db
      @Ben-gd4db Před 5 měsíci +10

      Villa like Liverpool have got a bit of stick for their away form both only getting 10 points from 7 away games, but like you said both have got the majority of the hard games out of the way (Liverpool, Newcastle, Spurs & Chelsea for Villa) while some other teams have had relatively easy away games.

    • @GuitarKitchen
      @GuitarKitchen Před 5 měsíci +1

      Good points - also, injury rates are up 10-15% from preceding years, as well as goal scoring. It makes it harder to predict based on past seasons. And, the January transfer window (with all the injuries) could have a bigger impact than usual for teams without such a deep bench as City.
      While 3 teams are pulling ahead (Arsenal, MC, Liverpool), there's about 5-6 other teams that could tie/beat any EPL team on a given weekend (NewC, AV, Wolves, Spurs, Chelsea). If ManU gets back its pace, they could be contenders, too.

    • @goodman4093
      @goodman4093 Před 5 měsíci +1

      Liverpool weakness is against team like Luton. An unexpected loss from bottom teams.

  • @raymanLENG
    @raymanLENG Před 5 měsíci +129

    from Mustafi, Luiz, Sokratis, Holding and Chambers, to this??? I'll take this defense all day long!

  • @Overhemd
    @Overhemd Před 5 měsíci +22

    Once again Gabriel Magalhães doesn't get a mention. Saliba's fantastic ofcourse but Gabriel has been an absolute rock and he's been flawless all season

  • @theoggunner
    @theoggunner Před 5 měsíci +228

    Great video but we need more credit for Gabriel, Ben white and Tomiyasu, who’re all doing an incredible job as well, especially Gabriel. I know saliba has been beyond incredible this season but it’s irritating to see only him getting the credit for our defensive success time after time

    • @igaarnold7840
      @igaarnold7840 Před 5 měsíci +28

      Spot on. Gabriel, White, and Tomiyasu, even controversially, Kai Havertz have all been very important cogs in this Arteta fogging machine

    • @Mars-kj8le
      @Mars-kj8le Před 5 měsíci +7

      Zinchenko has had better defensive numbers then ben and Tomi this season. Very underrated player

    • @theoggunner
      @theoggunner Před 5 měsíci +1

      @@Mars-kj8le agree, he was injured for sometime though this season so didn’t mention him

    • @igaarnold7840
      @igaarnold7840 Před 5 měsíci +1

      @Mars-kj8le why I didn't include him is because he is meant to be more influential in the middle of the park with his progressive passing, but he massively fell off massively this season. Defensively, fans have always been harsh on him, I've always appreciated his defensive prowess, but for me, with 3 CBs in our backline, I judge Ziny going forward

    • @igaarnold7840
      @igaarnold7840 Před 5 měsíci

      And before you come at me on why I acknowledged Kai, it's because going forward, he has not been good so I judge him from what he has brought to the table so far and that will change when I see him more influential going forward

  • @ObnoxiousOtter8
    @ObnoxiousOtter8 Před 5 měsíci +34

    My blud Ten Hag on the thumbnail💀

  • @nishantverma9225
    @nishantverma9225 Před 5 měsíci +74

    I think with how tight the league has been so far at the top, any team with a projected 80 points or higher has a chance of winning it this season. And unlike City's 86 point tally, it would be because of the equalisation of the standard of teams across the league.

    • @stnbch3025
      @stnbch3025 Před 5 měsíci

      Rubbish. It's a zero sum game => More teams reaching 85 points = other teams having less points => the league overall is less competitive while City already set a benchmark as good as it can be => the top isn't improving it's leveling out at an overall higher level. In the real world that's 3 teams reaching 80 points or more.

    • @nishantverma9225
      @nishantverma9225 Před 5 měsíci +10

      @@stnbch3025 I'm pretty sure your final implication is what I said as well, that its the standard of the league that's coming to a more equal level. I didn't care to say if the top teams got worse or the other teams got better; but for sure it's the rest of the league (minus the newly promoted teams) that have raised the bar
      As for the first part, that's exactly my prediction, that this season it feels different, it feels to me that not as many teams will reach 85 points this season.

    • @stnbch3025
      @stnbch3025 Před 5 měsíci

      ​​​​@@nishantverma9225 3 teams reaching 80 points or more is as good as the top gets in the real world. 3rd reaches 80 points once in a while and 4th simply does not compete for 2nd place, 4th is always too shite to reach 80 points. 4th is the first subtop team in the table and depends on the top 3 being weak. 3rd is usually a best of the rest type of team.

    • @stnbch3025
      @stnbch3025 Před 5 měsíci +1

      ​​​@@nishantverma9225 What's gonna happen won't be anything new. It will be something like City + 1, a marginal 3rd because it's chasing too many times behind the facts (probably Liverpool). 4th is not gonna reach 80 points, that anomaly hasn't happened and won't.

    • @dasomannen
      @dasomannen Před 5 měsíci +3

      From my understanding, this is correct. The winner this year will likely have fewer points than previous years, considering all of these top 8 teams will likely drop relatively many points against each other.

  • @johanhalvarsson2148
    @johanhalvarsson2148 Před 5 měsíci +21

    Interesting that you don't rank up what hard games each club has left before the second half of the season. Those things matter too.

  • @docjaramillo
    @docjaramillo Před 5 měsíci +11

    I’ve been an American fan of arsenal since the invincibles in 03/04 … Saliba is a rock. Once the gunners are healthy, they are going to be hard as coffin nails to beat

  • @dazred1
    @dazred1 Před 5 měsíci +62

    Did he really say Aston Villa hasn’t had bad injuries this season? 😂
    They’ve been missing one third of their starting lineup from last season (Mings, Buendia, Moreno, Ramsey). Traore and Zaniolo also missed the Tottenham game due to injury.

    • @spacebeagle8550
      @spacebeagle8550 Před 5 měsíci +14

      Media only started paying attention (to Villa) last week.

    • @gunnerjohnson
      @gunnerjohnson Před 5 měsíci +4

      I definitely chuckled when he said that. Delusional to say the least.

    • @FailedAragorn
      @FailedAragorn Před 5 měsíci +6

      Villa have honestly been incredible despite the injuries and setbacks at Newcastle etc, they well deserve to be where they are. If they can improve their away form I can absolutely see them making a decent CL run next season

    • @skillen19
      @skillen19 Před 5 měsíci +7

      Happy for people to underestimate us based on nothing at all, as evidenced here. Keeps the pressure off.
      Obviously you have to assume the 3 at the top are the most likely but this video reeks so much of manipulating the data to suit specific outcomes to the point that he ended up abandoning any pretence of data analysis the minute he mentioned Villa.

    • @gunnerjohnson
      @gunnerjohnson Před 5 měsíci +4

      @@skillen19 that’s the sad state of affairs mate. Everyone seems to think that when they lose to us they’ve had an “unlucky day” so to speak.

  • @ryanhindley174
    @ryanhindley174 Před 5 měsíci +151

    I think its shaping up to be a 3 horse race between City, Liverpool and Arsenal. And I would bet it probably ends up in that order.

    • @connor4435
      @connor4435 Před 5 měsíci +7

      Maybe in the end but at the moment villa are 100% in it, if a team can finish top after 1 more match day then they’re certainly in the title race

    • @ryanhindley174
      @ryanhindley174 Před 5 měsíci +41

      @@connor4435 their squad is nowhere near as good as the other 3. I dont buy them as a serious threat they've already been comfortably beaten by Liverpool and Newcastle

    • @connor4435
      @connor4435 Před 5 měsíci

      @@ryanhindley174 maybe but their squad is very good, their manager is levels above Arsenal’s, and like I said they can go top of the league next week, all I’m saying is that Villa are in it at the moment and you need to at least wait until after they play City and Arsenal to write them off

    • @ryanhindley174
      @ryanhindley174 Před 5 měsíci +39

      @@connor4435 emery isn't levels above arteta, he's better but levels is a stretch. as a Liverpool fan I'm not too worried about villa but they are dark horses

    • @william_SMMA
      @william_SMMA Před 5 měsíci +22

      ​@@ryanhindley174he thought he ate with that stupid comment on arteta

  • @muhdzulhilmi3115
    @muhdzulhilmi3115 Před 5 měsíci +107

    Man Utd is definitely not playing well at the moment, but why do Spurs and Newcastle gets their injuries mentioned ? Utd had their whole backline out for the start of the season. Even now I think there’s like 10+ injuries. It’s even stated how Spurs’ performances are affected by the latest injury crisis but for some reason this is not worth mentioning for United’s ?

    • @ezanage
      @ezanage Před 5 měsíci +39

      why should he mention united injury? united clearly won't challenge the title

    • @Kayjoo
      @Kayjoo Před 5 měsíci +9

      ​@@ezanagebecause they mentioned injuries problem of other teams? they mentioned Aston villa and Newcastle injuries but not United? please watch the video properly before commenting

    • @Kayjoo
      @Kayjoo Před 5 měsíci +12

      ​​@@ezanagethey clearly stated that their wins has been going on because of luck, and saying that their GD is an impostor among the top leagues while United literally have 3 Injured left back, 3 Injured centre back, 1 injured right back, in which the starting back 4 last season haven't played together this season?

    • @theehumptydumpty
      @theehumptydumpty Před 5 měsíci +10

      man utd are like Barca, Madrid etc. they are big clubs and they have pressure to win irregardless. they're not Newcastle/Spurs

    • @dharris-rd2md
      @dharris-rd2md Před 5 měsíci +7

      Big reason is that united are coming out of an injury crisis but Tottenham and Newcastle are entering one.

  • @henriksmedberg9215
    @henriksmedberg9215 Před 5 měsíci +4

    Great analysis.
    However, 86 is not "the lowest possible tally" that could win the EPL in the last seven years. You only need better goal difference than the second best team and hence, 74 points would have been enough in 20/21.
    I would still agree that ~85 points is a good benchmark, but it could have been explained a bit differently 😊

  • @pppmmmsss4995
    @pppmmmsss4995 Před 5 měsíci +2

    Can you make a video to explain why Arsenal's defense can be considered the best based on both statistical data and actual performance, while Liverpool's defense is not considered stable, but the number of goals conceded by both teams is quite close?

  • @phrophetsamgames
    @phrophetsamgames Před 5 měsíci +14

    Luton about to come back from behind to win the whole thing

  • @affy5337
    @affy5337 Před 5 měsíci +165

    I think we can all say it’s a win if city loses 🗣️

  • @dreyerswart515
    @dreyerswart515 Před 5 měsíci +3

    Out of curiosity, how would a chart of xGD (expected goal diff) look for the top 8? Would be nice to see how LFC's xG/xGA compares to that of AFC.

  • @Stoney776
    @Stoney776 Před 5 měsíci +14

    Villa arent going to win the league of course, but I feel as though because Villa have not had 4 players , who I add were all crucial first teamers last season, since the start of the season these injuries have been over looked because people look at the 11 we have been playing and say they havent had injuries. We have adapted to losing our entire left side of the pitch and we adapted how we play from last season that was a heavy left sided bias, to get the best out the players we had available, Digne has been excellent. After all that we are still 4th , 2 points off top. Now we have 2 of these players coming back (something that gets pointed to with every other club as a turning point for their seasons).

    • @God_is_an_Atheist666
      @God_is_an_Atheist666 Před 5 měsíci +2

      Off the bench substitutes are better than the likes of Spurs. The thing is they just aren't playing better than them which comes down to a managers capability. Unai is not better than Klopp, Ange, Pep or Eddie and that's the difference. He's better than Arteta thou.

    • @dave8535
      @dave8535 Před 5 měsíci +8

      ​@@God_is_an_Atheist666not better than ange or howe? Emery has loads of silverware under his belt since he left arsenal and has taken villa from 16th under gerrard to 4th in just over 12 months. He's completely transformed that team in 1 year. Never mind 2 or 3 going forward.

    • @skillen19
      @skillen19 Před 5 měsíci +5

      @@God_is_an_Atheist666 slipped Ange in there like we wouldn't notice! Sorry but Celtic and Yokohama Marinos just aren't going to cut it next to Emery's record.

    • @lemmingsftw2480
      @lemmingsftw2480 Před 5 měsíci +4

      ​@@God_is_an_Atheist666ange and howe? 🤣🤣🤣

  • @gunturalam7643
    @gunturalam7643 Před 5 měsíci +15

    I think if Stones N KDB return, they becomes big trouble to other contenders😊

  • @jakechatel2192
    @jakechatel2192 Před 5 měsíci +1

    Hey Tifo Irl! Where do you get your frames for your jerseys?
    Just wondering as I would like to frame my jerseys just like you have. 😊
    Thx a lot for your vids they are great.

  • @daveys1756
    @daveys1756 Před 5 měsíci +4

    I dont think realisytically that Villa are in the title race, but the statement "Villa havent suffered bad injuries so far this season"... is clearly incorrect. Buendia and Mings outdoor from start, Ramsey only just getting back to fitness and same with Moreno. I

  • @thabomokubung7230
    @thabomokubung7230 Před 5 měsíci +76

    Good old fashioned analysis. Not this complicated nonsense of underlying numbers. The league will be decided between, Arsenal, Liverpool and ManCity, Period. The rest of the top 8 are fighting for the 4rth spot.

    • @mjmulenga3
      @mjmulenga3 Před 5 měsíci +13

      There's a fifth Champions League spot too, these days.

    • @MIKhan-mh6fs
      @MIKhan-mh6fs Před 5 měsíci +1

      ​@@mjmulenga3it's for Europa league

    • @ephemeralburb
      @ephemeralburb Před 5 měsíci +9

      ​@@MIKhan-mh6fsIf UEFA think it's worthy based on our coefficient we will get a 5th CL spot

    • @AkshatSharma-uz7im
      @AkshatSharma-uz7im Před 5 měsíci

      ​@@ephemeralburbif United and Newcastle are done in Group stages, won't this effect England's coefficient

    • @ephemeralburb
      @ephemeralburb Před 5 měsíci

      @@AkshatSharma-uz7im It does but the coefficient is mainly based on the leagues inner competition. Also, as long as other europa/conference league teams perform well United and Newcastle going out early won't affect much, we've been the top 1 league consistently for like 5 years by now, I don't see that changing anytime soon

  • @God_is_an_Atheist666
    @God_is_an_Atheist666 Před 5 měsíci +5

    Putting Ten Hag in the thumbnail is hilarious. 😂

  • @dillipkumar845
    @dillipkumar845 Před 5 měsíci +13

    Liverpool need a proper DM.
    had tougher schedule than anyother title contenders. Yet to see Thiago, bajcetic coming in aswell. Hopefully there are no more injuries.

    • @TheIgle
      @TheIgle Před 5 měsíci +3

      Also in more than just the title winning season they've had bonkers points per game tallys. In 2019 they had 2.552 points per game across the season. 2020 they had 2.605. 2022 they had 2.42. With 2 down seasons between these I think its realistic we can celebrate another league title. I think after being about 2 goals away from winning the treble in 2022 last year they struggled with overcoming that. I wonder a little if City will have that problems as well.

  • @RedKyber11
    @RedKyber11 Před 5 měsíci +8

    Man Utd being without the first choice back 4 for almost every game this season should be accounted for. We won’t challenge for the title but that was never expected this season.

    • @samkelorashuza5949
      @samkelorashuza5949 Před 5 měsíci +2

      It kinda was. It was very talked about as the next step. Just like Spurs fans expect to challenge for the title next season

    • @ethanhutchison3180
      @ethanhutchison3180 Před 5 měsíci

      To be fair anybody will be lucky to get Europa league. There is 8-9 incredible teams this season fighting for top spots.

    • @TR4zest
      @TR4zest Před 5 měsíci

      The rest of us are wondering which month you sack the latest manager.

  • @leopoldfreeman
    @leopoldfreeman Před 5 měsíci +1

    Whoever has the manager with the most furrowed brow obviously has a huge advantage. Squads need depth of furrows if they're going to maintain quality the whole season.

  • @callumbrown7149
    @callumbrown7149 Před 5 měsíci +3

    Not going to lie, I normally don't watch if anyone other than JJ or John is presenting. But Sam did a great job here, will look out for more videos from him.

  • @epicgaming81
    @epicgaming81 Před 5 měsíci

    How do you design these charts, I love the streaks and how clean it is .

  • @Lahfo
    @Lahfo Před 5 měsíci +16

    The nerve to put Ten Hag in there but not Emery

    • @shukuchimukyo892
      @shukuchimukyo892 Před 5 měsíci

      That's fine but Emery wouldn't belong in the thumbnail anyway.

  • @makavelismith
    @makavelismith Před 5 měsíci +3

    Once Liverpool locks into place in terms of the team settling, they'll be totally unstoppable (bar injuries).

  • @davidfacina4239
    @davidfacina4239 Před 5 měsíci

    A really good one!!! Congrats!

  • @toyurc
    @toyurc Před 5 měsíci +12

    Interesting that you didnt do a comparison on teams played at this stage of the season. Arsenal has played almost everyone in the top 6 bar Liverpool, and might have an easier run-in in December as opposed to the other teams

    • @TR4zest
      @TR4zest Před 5 měsíci +3

      Liverpool has already played City, Newcastle, Spurs and Chelsea away.

    • @toyurc
      @toyurc Před 5 měsíci

      Same as Arsenal, so that match on the 23 is going to be a cracker!

  • @PhilipDanielHayton
    @PhilipDanielHayton Před 5 měsíci

    Fair evaluation 👍🏻

  • @bololollek9245
    @bololollek9245 Před 4 měsíci +1

    It is so nice seeing the attention Saliba gets, truly the Van Dijk of Arsenal. Just look at how he handeled Haaland in the City game

  • @oibara2
    @oibara2 Před 5 měsíci +7

    man those required points per game stats are sobering

  • @mhr19981
    @mhr19981 Před 5 měsíci

    I absolutely adore your sweater. I'll be mighty happy if you gimme the store name😊

  • @SakayoBukayo
    @SakayoBukayo Před 5 měsíci +6

    Its crazy that arsenals boring attack has 1 goal less than Liverpools scintillating attack .. without Jesus , odegaard n martinelli for parts of the season ...

    • @fangdog29
      @fangdog29 Před 5 měsíci +1

      The xG difference versus Liverpool is just 0.3, as well. It's crazy.

    • @SASMADBRUV7
      @SASMADBRUV7 Před 5 měsíci +11

      That's the thing with expectation vs reality. Liverpool's 'leaky' defense only has one less goal than arsenal's imperious defense

    • @fikky.b8246
      @fikky.b8246 Před 5 měsíci +1

      ​@fangdog29 0.3 is a lot for xg lmao multiply that by 38 and you get more than 10 goals.

    • @fangdog29
      @fangdog29 Před 5 měsíci

      @@fikky.b8246 this xG over all games played. Not xG per game. Think twice.

    • @fangdog29
      @fangdog29 Před 5 měsíci

      @@fikky.b8246 so, it translates to less than a 1 goal difference over 38 games. Get it?

  • @bobcally861
    @bobcally861 Před 5 měsíci +1

    Such a great vid, loved the statistics-based approach

    • @skillen19
      @skillen19 Před 5 měsíci

      this barely counted as a statistics based approach.

    • @kwayvldn3682
      @kwayvldn3682 Před 5 měsíci

      ⁠@@skillen19don’t know what you would count this as then considering it’s a video full of stats-based reasoning…

  • @johnhawkins2717
    @johnhawkins2717 Před 5 měsíci +1

    "No one is sure how manu are the form team", they've played sheff United, Luton, Fulham and Everton, that's basically the bottom 4.
    I'm surprised as you're a football channel you hadn't noticed that.

  • @Stegibbon
    @Stegibbon Před 5 měsíci +3

    I love you yet again someone chooses to give the injuries excuse for every team other than united who have had a whole 11 of players out for a lot of the season.

  • @anmoljeetsingh8837
    @anmoljeetsingh8837 Před 5 měsíci +16

    Where is Aston villa coach
    Where is Newcastle United coach

  • @sEaNoYeAh
    @sEaNoYeAh Před 5 měsíci +8

    I fancy Arsenal to win the league so long as they keep up the grit that's seen them win tough games, and find Havertz's best position.

  • @anthonyarandi426
    @anthonyarandi426 Před 5 měsíci

    @tifo you should also do "who (team) is changing the premiere league this season. (Tactically)"

  • @nicholaschristodoulou3821
    @nicholaschristodoulou3821 Před 5 měsíci +15

    Why stop it before Leicester in 15/16😂😂 81 pts

    • @virupakshawalla5734
      @virupakshawalla5734 Před 5 měsíci

      Ferguson won it soo many times with less than 85 but he could buy the cream from other PL teams and had the other English managers in his pocket. Over rated red nosed Jock

  • @HungryBellyT
    @HungryBellyT Před 5 měsíci +1

    Worldie of a sweater - anyone know where to find it??

  • @justink7082
    @justink7082 Před 5 měsíci

    this is cool and all but where did u get that sweater

  • @marciomilisse8074
    @marciomilisse8074 Před 5 měsíci

    Good but there’s a problem, you get the 85pts mark from am average of irrealistic tallies, due to the heaved competition this isn’t a season where anyone is likely hit those kinds of pts therefore less point will be needed to win the league and more teams are in contention

  • @Daniel-wb2mm
    @Daniel-wb2mm Před 5 měsíci +1

    “Man city just winning it” seems very disrespectful, considering Liverpool pushed city to a single point twice. Point stands though, with it typically being two teams only competing.

  • @JWells-ju6uf
    @JWells-ju6uf Před 5 měsíci +6

    Villa haven't "suffered any key injuries this year", do you actually look at any teams that arent in the "top 6"? Fed up of this nonsense that these chanels spout (Mings, Buendia, Ramsey, Moreno) You shouldn't put a video up if you don't know what you're talking about

    • @sneezeey
      @sneezeey Před 5 měsíci +1

      Tbf Moreno, Mings and Buendia were all pretty much out from the start of the season, which the video accounted for; you're right about Ramsey though

  • @miistercrayon
    @miistercrayon Před 5 měsíci

    Half the teams in the top quadrant have ridiculous underlying numbers but are real life no chance to even get into Europe perhaps. So is there some other thing that differentiates teams that show good and those that pull it off? I think last year Leicester had pretty decent stats numbers but got done in in the end so I think there’s some Unknown Factor (mentality?) that is unquantifiable but is the real difference.
    I think over time we’re going to see more teams in the way brighton were the butt of a an (expected) joke which will need some explanation.

  • @sahilm2002
    @sahilm2002 Před 5 měsíci +2

    Apparently no one can quite figure out why Man Utd are the “form team” with 5 wins in 6? Let’s see who they have played: Everton (A), Luton (H), Fulham (A), Man City (H), Sheff Utd (A), Brentford (H)
    Nope, no one can quite figure out why Utd are the “form team”
    Meanwhile Arsenal, who apparently get bad memories by being top of the table, are only 1 point shy of the “form team” in the last 6 games having played: Brentford (A), Burnley (H), Newcastle (A), Sheff Utd (H), Chelsea (A), Man City (H).
    An arguably harder stretch of games with Chelsea and Newcastle away in there.
    Calling Utd as the “form team” without analyzing the relative strength of fixtures is extremely lazy from Tifo.

  • @InstigatorDJ
    @InstigatorDJ Před 5 měsíci +8

    2:52 PLAYING EASY TEAMS. Kinda obvious. Id say Liverpool have by FAR had the toughest opening fixtures. Weve played everyone worth anything away already bar Arsenal and United.

    • @calum9124
      @calum9124 Před 5 měsíci

      Newcastle have had the toughest opening fixtures

    • @epicmarschmallow5049
      @epicmarschmallow5049 Před 5 měsíci +5

      ​@@calum9124Newcastle aren't title challengers

    • @3bladeninja21
      @3bladeninja21 Před 5 měsíci +2

      All of us are waiting for that United game. Please give us another 7

    • @fredorido2520
      @fredorido2520 Před 5 měsíci +2

      Arsenal have played tough games bar Liverpool

    • @Ben-gd4db
      @Ben-gd4db Před 5 měsíci

      Out of all of the teams mentioned in this video, Liverpool, Newcastle and Villa have had the toughest games so far. Villa have 3 games in 7 days next week which is ending with City and Arsenal back to back with a 2 day rest so they might be top of the list of shitty fixtures.

  • @JustinWelchUK
    @JustinWelchUK Před 5 měsíci +1

    OMG! That jumper! I NEED it!

  • @machomano207
    @machomano207 Před 5 měsíci +1

    Crazy how people been roasting Liverpool’s defense when they’ve only allowed one goal more than Arsenal… pair that with their “prolific attack” and I can’t see them coming in anything but first if they continue with their confidence and consistency

  • @alexiosalexandrou6510
    @alexiosalexandrou6510 Před 5 měsíci

    PPG with a eight game difference between the teams seems like a misguided stat to use. xThreat would have been on point for measuring what will come for the remainder of the season.

  • @nebojsadurmanovic2268
    @nebojsadurmanovic2268 Před 5 měsíci +12

    You forgot to mention Mansour FC's best player - PGMOL. It has effectively made life easier for them ever since Fergie the fixer retired.

    • @fangdog29
      @fangdog29 Před 5 měsíci +1

      They've had quick pens in a couple of games too. Happened with Chelsea. Ridiculous really.

    • @SASMADBRUV7
      @SASMADBRUV7 Před 5 měsíci +3

      @@fangdog29 rodri handball in 21/22 is still one of the worst decisions I've ever seen considering the potential impact.

  • @kingra2650
    @kingra2650 Před 5 měsíci +5

    Great to see Villa up there.

  • @nexus_hyvix
    @nexus_hyvix Před 3 měsíci

    Portugal
    Their attack will all go through Cristiano Ronaldo, who is not talking about retiring yet but surely is in Last Dance territory with the competition he won in 2016. Roberto Martinez has a wealth of talent in all other areas: Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes - and they are just the ones based in Manchester. Joao Palhinha is a potential star of the tournament going under the radar.

  • @lauramolano892
    @lauramolano892 Před 5 měsíci +2

    The answer is, neither of those 3 teams. This will be another "Leicester" season. If you know what I mean. In Unai we trust.

  • @tawfiqchowdhury1040
    @tawfiqchowdhury1040 Před 5 měsíci

    Where can I buy the top you are wearing Sam

  • @Pdrock2001
    @Pdrock2001 Před 5 měsíci +4

    Liverpool need a proper DM and Arsenal need a proper striker . Its between them two to pull awy from City .

  • @Siience...s
    @Siience...s Před 5 měsíci +6

    Thank you Sam for not making fun of us while we are literally missing half of our main team players (on a level equal with Newcastle lack of availability of their main team members) and actually acknowledging that we can still achieve top 4.
    Title contenders? No. We never were because it was just all media hype and we spurs fans knew that top 4 is our only main target for the pl this season.

  • @_jakehames
    @_jakehames Před 5 měsíci

    This discussion could have been improved with including strength of schedule remaining for the top 8 clubs

  • @ssongwrite
    @ssongwrite Před 5 měsíci

    Where can we buy the Christmas jumper?

  • @chriscrawford94
    @chriscrawford94 Před 5 měsíci

    Thing about United though is you can say they are still thereabouts despite playing particularly poorly and having the worst injury issues over this first period of the league of anyone (Spurs now catching up). Some key players are coming back from injury - Shaw, Mainoo, Martinez almost back, Casemiro. If some players start hitting form they could be strong contenders. If Mainoo continues that level of performance. If Rashford and Casemiro can up their levels to anything close to last year they could be a bit of a danger. Massively outside chance yes but crazier things have happened. City look more vulnerable than they have done in a while.

    • @chriscrawford94
      @chriscrawford94 Před 5 měsíci

      You also have to add in the VAR issues United have faced. They've lost by far the most points to VAR of any team. If the VAR situation was fair in that regard they'd be even higher up. I still have them as maybe the 4th most likely to win but you can't discount them. They have probably the greatest difference between potential performances and actual performances of any team in the top 6.

    • @kwayvldn3682
      @kwayvldn3682 Před 5 měsíci

      Look at the teams you have faced so far

  • @mullenio4200
    @mullenio4200 Před 5 měsíci +5

    I'm a Liverpool fan but aside from us, I'd be happy to see anyone apart from city win it (and United).

    • @epicmarschmallow5049
      @epicmarschmallow5049 Před 5 měsíci +7

      Don't think you have much to worry about from United

    • @lukew6725
      @lukew6725 Před 5 měsíci

      You're probably safe on the United front. 😂

  • @conorreilly1945
    @conorreilly1945 Před 5 měsíci

    Can you do a Monte carlo simulation from this point in the season?

  • @mariocsee
    @mariocsee Před 5 měsíci

    Man U through and through and I back ETH for getting (PL) results with half a squad but put Unai Emery on the cover photo. Give him some cover time he's got Villa cooking

  • @pratiklakhotia4877
    @pratiklakhotia4877 Před 5 měsíci +2

    You actually added Ten Hag's photo ina question of winning the title? 😂😂😂😂😂

  • @100prcntx
    @100prcntx Před 5 měsíci +2

    There’s no question saliba is the best defender in the prem if not the best defender in the world

  • @luis_moontero
    @luis_moontero Před 5 měsíci +2

    mentions injury problems for every team but not for United 👍🏼

  • @joesifa5235
    @joesifa5235 Před 5 měsíci

    Now do one for Spain, Germany, and Italy leagues

  • @hottzhitts0173
    @hottzhitts0173 Před 5 měsíci +19

    It's funny how, after going through all those stats, you end up with the clubs everyone would have come up with it 😂😂😂😂

    • @IVIRnathanreilly
      @IVIRnathanreilly Před 5 měsíci

      ​@@On_my_way_to_Nirvana-jx7psunited would probably benefit from someone that could actually analyse stats to be fair.
      Also, football is as low as the pay gets for analysts (apart from some potential outliers). If they are paid reasonably well here it's likely more than top clubs pay. Somewhere around 30-40k.
      Anyone very good is in finance.

    • @hi-ls6lt
      @hi-ls6lt Před 5 měsíci

      @@On_my_way_to_Nirvana-jx7psthen why are you on these videos then? To hate watch them?

  • @Lethorio
    @Lethorio Před 5 měsíci +1

    City, Arsenal, Liverpool. No one else is in the conversation.

  • @yung404error8
    @yung404error8 Před 5 měsíci +3

    This actually should be addressed after Jan-Feb. We all know city is going to go on a kill streak in the 2nd half of the season

  • @tadiyahfraser
    @tadiyahfraser Před 5 měsíci

    Great video blud 👍🏼

  • @Zygmunt-Zen
    @Zygmunt-Zen Před 5 měsíci

    That jumper is something else!

  • @AunMohammed90
    @AunMohammed90 Před 5 měsíci +1

    Excellent video and a very likeable presenter.

  • @akashiam2021
    @akashiam2021 Před 5 měsíci +1

    Why is Ten Hag's image there?!!

  • @JuliusCaribou
    @JuliusCaribou Před 5 měsíci

    Gave me a good laugh seeing Ten Hag in the thumbnail 😂

  • @TheFlashman
    @TheFlashman Před 5 měsíci +1

    The Man Utd form team thing is a complete meme. They've had a run of narrow wins against relegation contenders. Them being rhe 'form team' is the very definition of being able to twist statistics to whatever narrative ends you need, so long as you can interpret them selectively.

  • @ADSudhanshu
    @ADSudhanshu Před 5 měsíci

    cool sweater bro

  • @gerghghherb880
    @gerghghherb880 Před 5 měsíci

    I don't think its even possible for more than a couple of teams to get more than 85 points each, because those teams have to play each other

  • @bardhi0
    @bardhi0 Před 5 měsíci

    Where can I get this sweater?

  • @daveyjones6148
    @daveyjones6148 Před 5 měsíci

    Var difficulties aside- I know but just ignore it for a moment- the competition and football quality on show is amazing this season, real passion on show from the players

  • @ANDR3alfaro
    @ANDR3alfaro Před 5 měsíci +1

    Putting Ten Hag on the thumbnail and not Emery is wild lmao

  • @les_crow
    @les_crow Před 5 měsíci +3

    I want that sweater.

  • @user-fn4um5sj6d
    @user-fn4um5sj6d Před 5 měsíci

    Rodri one of best CM but Graven breezed past him for Liv goal…. Only 3 horse race… the top 3

  • @Ty-vm9sx
    @Ty-vm9sx Před 5 měsíci

    It’s funny how injuries are brought up for Newcastle but not United. None of United’s starting defenders last season have played more than 4 games this season. Not hard to figure out why defense has been poor.

    • @sreehari7467
      @sreehari7467 Před 5 měsíci

      because Newcastle have injuries in all departments, Attack, defence, Midfield you name it.. 13 players are unavailable,5 more than United's 8..
      Newcastle literally dominated your club left, right and centre yesterday..
      United had a lucky last season I must say, their squad depth is paper thin, even worse than Chelsea's..

  • @blutbadwolf
    @blutbadwolf Před 5 měsíci +2

    Man Utd have yet to get points against a top half of the table team

  • @czytv4554
    @czytv4554 Před 5 měsíci

    I think a cooler battle is the fight for 4th. Obviously Newcastle and Spurs have gotta be the favourites. But also Villa, United and I would even say Chelsea all can fight for that last champions league place

  • @tomyates2551
    @tomyates2551 Před 5 měsíci

    Honestly, with everyone’s fascination with underlying numbers, sometimes I wonder why we still both with the numbers on top.

  • @ytfvuftctfytfh6054
    @ytfvuftctfytfh6054 Před 5 měsíci +2

    Unfortunately underlying numbers don’t account for the history of the Tottenham 😂

  • @ikorraks
    @ikorraks Před 5 měsíci

    Replace the thumbnail with a big old pic of Emery grinning at something in the middle distance. AVFC overdue a trophy so may as well win the league.

  • @moseskayode6643
    @moseskayode6643 Před 5 měsíci

    Good analysis

  • @arthur_168
    @arthur_168 Před 5 měsíci

    Villa also have 2 other problems. Their high line and their away form. Any team that plays a highline needs to make sure that their team is putting enough pressure on the opposition to deny them chances to play through their press. Villa's simply isn't good enough, yes I know they've played the most offside traps in the league but the entire point of the highline is to deny chances, especially with Villa's depth looking dangerously threatened playing such a energy demanding system could kill them off. Their away form on the other hand is atrocious, I know they just beat Spurs at Hotspur Stadium but from what we've seen so far they are still looking a bit too fragile. Ofc form can easily change and so can Emery's tactics so we can see them start regaining that away form again, but just 2 points to point out

    • @lemmingsftw2480
      @lemmingsftw2480 Před 5 měsíci

      Energy demanding system? Thats just completely incorrect, villa play one of the least physically demanding systems in the top 6

    • @arthur_168
      @arthur_168 Před 5 měsíci

      @@lemmingsftw2480 a highline is a very energy demanding system, especially when you apply weak pressure to your opponents buildup you're inviting them to attack with every second they're on the ball

    • @lemmingsftw2480
      @lemmingsftw2480 Před 5 měsíci

      @@arthur_168 you realise its far more exhausting to make runs behind a high line than it is to defend in
      one right?, 3/4 of the time the defender barely moves and just plays them offside with a single step forwards, especially when they play it as well as villa have done for over a year at this point and if not then all they do is track the runner, even when they have to track the runner they are running either less or the same as the attacker. a high line is demanding mentally and tactically, not physically