The Fed is Screwed.
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- čas přidán 16. 04. 2024
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Recession, Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, danger.
📝Disclaimer:
This video is not personalized advice for the viewer.
#meetkevin #househack #JuneVegasEvent
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I'm getting whiplash on when bad news is good news, and when good news is bad news.
Margins and growth has to shrink or stay level BAD news for earnings, but interest rates has room to lower. Will it crash, or will the Fed catch the economy first.
Wrong title. The FED is never screwed. We the people are screwed
Living the dream here guys. The world economy is so shitty, young folk are forced into chasing dog coins on some god-knows-what chain, just to have a shot at a stable financial future.
Yep. We are living the dream.
Texas roadhouse near me is my inflation gauge. For last 2 years, Sunday wait list for my family for 5 was 45-60 minutes. Larger parties are in hours. This last Sunday walked in with party of 10 and seated in 4 minutes. Sunday during peak dining hours.
This is the type of data I like. How often do you go?
Probably the most reliable indicator! Thx
What city are you in
The job numbers are really inaccurate most people are working three jobs just to stay afloat
Won’t the Biden administration just change the meaning of recession
Bidenomics is working
.99 cent store is closing 371 locations that ain’t even in the list. Our economy is garbage , brace for impact all, Jamie Diamond just sold 180million worth of shares…that dude hasn’t sold in 20+years…what does he know? Stay vigilant 💪
😂 the fed will cave a print a shitton of money like they always do
As a Corporate Recruiter I agree that the market is slowing down.
You cannot fix inflation with interest rates when the biggest debt spender in the economy is the us government…they don’t care what rates are and keep spending more!
It’s One big contradiction what the government is doing
Unfortunately I think your right. Everyone I know who is doing great is either government or private company that has government contracts.
Pretty scary actually.
@@SmartestDumbGuy all those jobs that have been created…mostly government jobs!!!
@@fredpsimas1874 I believe it!
Maybe the govy should stop printing….. 🤔
The most obvious solution, but so unlikely.
Fed can't stop now...they need to $1T/100day deficits !
April 16, 2024: Fed Chair Powell says there has been a ‘lack of further progress’ this year on inflation.
This is it !
Also maybe not drag us into a global war that could harm trade
The government should be 1/6th its current size!
What he didn’t mention is that those job losses is full time jobs that actually pay a living wage as well
If you take the government spending out of the GDP calculation, we’re already in a recession.
When did Kevin go full degen on 0dte options? Wsb got him hooked 😂
Bro you can go so high to so low so fast... it's very scary or fun, depending on which way it's going LOL
Google, Apple, Amazon, FB, Ford, GM plus others had massive layoffs. Why does only Tesla get negative news?
So the guy who a year ago was pounding the table that there would be no recession and no bear market is now the Nostradamus of recession?
He never said that. However everyone who invested the past year killed it. So he has actually been right so far. This pull back just started.
@@SmartestDumbGuy
Are you new here? He absolutely said it. To be fair he also said he would be the first one to flip flop if it looked like it was going the other way but we all saw this coming over a year ago with the fed printing out more money then there are trees.
When it comes to the job market currently, it is important to factor in that a lot of people that are new hires were not unemployed prior and are being hired on to a 2nd job in order to make ends meet.
Additionally, part time jobs are being counted by the FED as full-time jobs, which looks good on paper, but in reality not good for the economy. Employers would rather have 2 part time workers rather than 1 full time to save on benefits.
Lastly, employers often pay more to attract new employees causing wage push inflation, specifically in order to pay for the salaries of new hires, employers in effect have to raise the price of goods and services. e.g. McDonald's in California.
Starting to see more fire in Kevin's thumbnails
Thx for the mid day updates 👍
One day he says the economy “might go up” next day. I am nervous the economy “might go down” 😂
A beautiful balancing act lol
Raise those rates --higher forever.
US Debt Clock would splode into inflation and hyperinflation servicing the $34T debt and writing new US Treasuries in 2024.
April 16, 2024: Fed Chair Powell says there has been a ‘lack of further progress’ this year on inflation.
You mention that all 3 went negative, but we weren’t in a recession, but wasn’t that the point in summer of 22 when we went into recession using the standard definition, but the administration changed the definition?
Great Video! Good eye on the job opening stuff
Hi Kevin et al, do you send the alerts with enough time for us to act on them and be profitable? And what's your % wins vs losses?
So, should the fed have gone to 6% before pausing? How different would it be now if they did that?
Just wait till the debt market melts down
Great breakdown
casually trading for what is life changing money for most people is crazy
Make more money, get into the plumbing/hvac trade, its not too difficult
this is nothing but a sales pitch. This guy has gone to rubbish.
Construction permits and starts are still declining. 4 percent drop last month. Plus, bond rates are rising, which means mortgages are rising, putting more pressure on purchasers. Of course, this is happening right as we are going into the building season. It's going to be a tepid summer in housing. Fed rates are not going higher. They will cut in the summer
Hey Kevin! Have you seen the US/non-US employment data? Some speculate that this is what is polluting the data. The increase in jobs for non-Americans is holding the economy by a thread.
I'm not trying to get political here, just trying to read the data.
Nice trade bro! 💯
Credits to you Kevin. You predicted the ARM crash a few weeks ago. Thanks! Good profits.
Hey Kevin ? What do you think about PayPal
I have been watching the Russian Ruble and it shocked me to see
that over the last 12 years it has gone from 36 cents on the dollar to
10.9 cents on the dollar as of today.
Is a centrally controlled credit-based system, engineered to siphon all productivity gains, essentially a fictional monetary framework for the vast majority of participants?
How does one calculate prices of things within that system?
Let’s see if the market drops enough to make the other big techs reduce labour pools.
Any one watching the forward indicators like Transports, lumber, copper, Nat Gas, etc? No? How about TSLA or any of the high flying tech stock that have kept the markets artifically high for the last 4 years? No? How about when you go buy anything is is way more expensive then it was just 2 years ago? No? How about driving around any city and seeing mass exodus? No? How about the rising population of homelessness? No? How about the New and Used Car market? Dive by a dealer.... look at their lots... they can't sell anything. It goes on and on and on. Which means Unemployment is about to surge and when I mean surge... I mean SURGE.
forget the repayments
wont make it possible to think there will ever be a chance of becoming solvent again that it will be a factor
Gotta love Kevin with his bucket 🪣 of FUD.. 😂
Love this guy!!
They should just raise inflation target to 2.5%.
Nah just raise rates.
3%
Haha. Don't get Kevin going on flexible targets
3.2% is actually pretty common as their sweet spot for many first world countries.
They arent going for a 2% average. They are aiming for a 2% interest rate “over time” which is very different. If we had inflation at 1.5% for the past 30 years, in theory, we could run hot for a while and still be under the 2% inflation rate “over time”. Its like none of these economy pundits actually watch the fomc meetings. They have never said they have a desire to immediately hit a 2% inflation rate. Its always followed by the phrase “over time”. Every time a pundit says the fed is failing for not immediately bringing rates to 2% I roll my eyes.
Let’s get it!
I work with essentially 3000 household of every day people from doctors down to warehouse workers and I have never seen in my 24 years running my insurance agency people starting to struggle like this. The people at the top are so out of touch with reality based on their numbers, there's like an MBA in a corporation that has no real world experience if economy so good that everybody has three jobs I've never seen so many people talk about their second and third job, so yes they're counted as employed but so many people are under employed I need two or three jobs to sustain it, but this is all going to catch up to us it's inevitable throw in the household debt. Eventually they're going to be tapped out of being able to continue to ship that Depford till their credit card offers will dry up and they're gonna have to pay the piper which is going to slow the economy even further the other day in a Midwestern city, it's got a good cost of living I paid 1795 for a bag of chips and a drink and a sandwich I'm a mid six-figure her so it doesn't hurt me but I don't know how the hell the $15-$20 in our employees can ever afford that.
Finally you’re not sounding delusional Kevin I’ve been commenting this for months. The labor market has been getting beat especially in tech for over a years
Yeah... this recession has been moving in extreme slow motion. This thing started like 18 months ago... we are finally just starting to feel it.
The only thing "toppy" might just be this guys net worth.
Kevin is the type of guy to make a “rebuying tesla?” video on a random day with no news but won’t make a video on the start of the TSLA downfall past week
ASML orders now are through the roof. You are seeing end of the year order drop. It changed a lot, but other manufacturing is still low. ASML buy the dip next 3months.
Construction jobs have been stimulated from the bill that was signed I think for the chips act.
My Kev is pumpin these stock signals LOL - Textbook from the great TTCF investor, the one throw darts at everything - keeps what sticks and showcase only those
I would be more bearish if he said that they wanna cut soon with this inflation data so far
Maybe you could also look up corporations that are claiming to lay off people. Like UPS like Amazon for example
Sup Kev!!
So SMCI not "just racks" anymore?
There is not a decline in AI investing. That's not the reason of the 3.6 billion orderintake of ASML.
I hope the fed doesn't notice this channel 😂😂... your going places
Props to Kevin for finally becoming a Chad and being bearish
Smart to look at manufacturing and construction openings. Will be a bumpy year like 2023. Nvidia saved end of 2023.
I predicted this video from Kevin in December.
take profits...no one goes broke taking profits
I've been screwed for 7 years ayyyy
Nice gains 👌🎉👏👏👏
I have seen more frequent layoffs in health insurance admin at different levels. Back to office being pressed very hard.
had to set heigh higher to see something.
You did have a short-lived technical recession in 2022 in the USA.
Other countries buy our bonds that are struggling. They'll know more in 8 months when more data comes in ~
George Gammon talked about this since last year😢 I guess the fed cant keep manipulating the system anymore?
When compared to 2008 you have to also take into account the difference that 14 years of mass Internet and social media adoption has had on these reports.
We have far more 'ghost jobs' for data harvesting purposes.
We have far more permanently open roles in sectors with cyclical employees.
In my opinion even in a fairly painful recession these would 'positively' impact the curves on the graph.
No way, bro, this time is different. 😂
Agree, it is gonna be at least 5 times as bad as the GFC was ... when folks are smart enough to figure it out... or it is so in their face they cannot ignore it.
The dot plot is obviously wrong.
I feel the market is soft and all the inflows from the flood of money in covid is drying up. Escalator up...elevator down...how many floors do we go down, that is the question
Long time follower and course member. Does anyone else feel like their head is going to explode if they hear one more pitch from Kevin? It's just so relentless and cringe. I fast forward, but it still drives me a little more crazy every day. 😅
Ads have been around longer than you've been alive.
God and Gold are good🙏
weird theology ... only GOD is good.
Gold...and Silver too.
@@user-db1rw9cd1p Gold is God's money.. and there for also good.
@@Carlos-im3hn God money!
Kevin, you keep it 💯 like you’re running a fever bro 👍 keep it up. And try running for a governor one more time, I’ll vote for you again.
Bad news is good news for the bond markets. So is mortgage brokers look forward to a “poopy” market
It's about to get real', or real fake', depends on how you look at it.👀
Someone just bought 30k calls on tesla Dec 18, 2026 expire. Quarter billion worth. 105 strike. That ain't retail. Bullish af on t3sla
Who has $4k for one contract?
2% inflation feeling like a pipe dream now. Maybe 4% is the new norm. This is our life now. 😔
Kevin won’t say it so I will that was called a gamble,
not a Hopie TRADE
Thats lies. We are laying off and we are loosing customers. We didn't layoff or loose customers in 2008 & 2009. Things are not good since last summer.
When businesses closed down or go bankrupt does that get included into the jobless something tells me it doesn't get combined where is if you were to combined both of them you would see a worse jobs number
Powell pretty much has promised Plugs to be there for him before the November election.
I expect a full point cut by August 2024. A full point cut will be more than the market
expects which will create a short rally for a few weeks.
We all know rates need to hit over 10 percent. To much lobby money at stakea and blackmail
your mic is clipping a lot. Can you check your input levels please
Since kevin has been saying nike swoosh, i been saying its not going happen,
Inflation will come down for sure. Just need patience.
We had actually 2 quarters of negative growth in 2022, so we did have a small recession.
Yep
That is just a little warm up lap. The marathon has yet to come. But it is coming.
down big on coin and afrm puts yday tho
Tommorows video. The FED was RIGHT!!
i am going over the top
Indicator JB hunt???
What do you guys think about buying VXX or UVXY?
I disagree with Powell's statement that "should inflation further increase he can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed" and at the same time he says "he has significant space to ease should inflation begin to drop". Rates are NOT high where they are! There is NO ROOM to lower rates without unleashing inflation, especially on EVERYTHING bought on time! Rates should be INCREASED, especially after months of inflation increases. This attitude of refusal to raise rates is dangerous! Rates should be raised to conquer inflation decisively! Even "shock" the markets with a large rate increase. Then from a range of 7 to 9% rates, if inflation can be controlled with no more increases than that, rates can be lowered to the current range for stimulus AFTER deflation brings ALL prices back down to sustainable and reasonable ranges. Prices are too high! Homes for example must come DOWN in price so that people can afford to buy them at current rates! Rates too low are very bad! It causes inflation in EVERYTHING bought on time because sellers will price the assets at the top range of what people can afford to pay. Lower the rates, HIGHER the price! Rates too high are also very bad. They slow down business activity and demand. Balance is the key and that is a range of 5 to 7%. Raise the rate! Act now!
Poorly run businesses, those that repeatedly need bailouts going back decades, no matter how large, those that need government subsidizing to stay in business, like Tesla, and businesses that need cheap to nearly free money loans to stay in business because they have never made any money should be allowed to be flushed out of the system either by complete failures, bankruptcies, and/or replacement of the incompetent people who run them, all with NO bailouts. Inflation solidly under control after extreme deflation, a strong dollar, and the existence of economic opportunity widespread for ALL and not just the rich, is more important than preserving thousands of large poorly run businesses that should be swept away and eventually replaced, along with the thousands of so-called business people who otherwise could not earn and attain their success and positions solely on merit, ingenuity, American economic understanding, and hard work. The pain that is necessary to "reboot" the American economy with the crud flushed out of it must be embraced. Better to do it NOW than later, that assuming another time in the future will come for the country to be given back to the American people.
No correction we’re screwed😅, everybody in the feds are rich, already won’t really suffer
Double dip recession?
10% seems kind of steep for Tesla... Something smells a bit like political motivation...
rates and yields up to 6% then the US Debt Clock explodes into inflation and hyperinflation.
rates and yields down then no one will purchase 4% treasuries billions and trillions to be sold in 2024.
The US rates and Fed are stuck at 5% going forward....stuck paying 5% yields as the US Debt Clock splodes into inflation and hyperinflation.
LOL you proved recession started in 2022. Donkeys just changed the definition of a recession.
Powell will say whatever he is told to say...
fire thousands of employes, give CEO billions
OMG THE ECONOMY IS BREAKING