‘Ukraine cannot prevail against Russian Spring offensive’ | Colonel Richard Kemp interview
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- čas přidán 16. 02. 2023
- Russian soldiers, much like Iraqis in the First Gulf War, simply don’t have a reason to fight. On the 24th of February 2022 Russian troops rolled into Ukraine and began one of the bloodiest wars Europe has seen in decades. Almost one year on from the invasion The Telegraph's Steven Edginton is joined by Colonel Richard Kemp, who served in the British army from 1977 until 2006, to discuss what happened and what could happen next.
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When no one notices an offensive, it's not much of an offensive.
More like western msm ignoring and obfuscating the reality on the ground there.
Who the hell is that bloated dumass?
The Germans had an offensive in Lorraine during ww2. Patton didn't notice.
Like Ukraine’s non existent offensive.
@@everready800 Ukraine's offensive didn't start yet. Russia's offensive was over before anyone knew that it started.
A year ago: "I don't see how the Ukraine can last three days."
They wouldn't have lasted without intense Western support which not many predicted beforehand. Without Western intelligence and the flood of weapons Kiev would be Russian right now.
Russia never said anything about a three day war. Western media talking heads claimed this. The same media that praise the Clown of Kiev from whom they get all of their propaganda lies.
They didn't, Ukraine was successfully invaded by Russia on Day-1 itself.
Ukraine didnt last 2 weeks. Kiev had agreed terms with RF for a ceasefire in negotiations in Turkiye. Then NATO stepped in and wrote a blank cheque. Ever since RF has been fighting a NATO army using UA conscripts
@@sisyphusvasilias3943 Damn, oldest trick in the book, under our noses this whole time. I can't believe I missed this obvious reality.
For a Russian Colonel this guy speaks incredibly good English
@@matt8637 he was sarcastic. He didn't hear his usual echo bubble infos so he jokes on the colonel being a russian spy.
@@matt8637 🙄that went over your head.
@@mdumiseninsibande3071 I get it now. 🙂
Typical neocon comment. Anybody who gives even a partly pessimistic view is immediately a Russian spy. What chance can the west have of salvaging anything when anybody giving a realistic view is denounced?
Why, because he doesn't bend in line with the FoxCorp propaganda?
Even if Ukraine can't win we should give them more weapons and money, lots of it! It doesn't matter that we are facing a cost of living crisis and a recession looming, just give them more!
"...Finland and Norway applying to NATO." Norway joined NATO in 1949 as one of the original members.
Yes. This colonel would have invaded the wrong country if at war. Probably why he never rose to general. 🤣
Woops
@@larsrons7937 Obviously, just a slip of the tongue! 🇸🇪🇫🇮 Col. Kemp seemed also very dejected & depressed at this interview! Could this be of some additional significance for as yet unknown reasons?
I think he meant Sweden.............
@@trevorfuller1078 The reasons are known but not talked about in the press.
35:55 - "Norway want to join NATO" he says but *Norway* was a *founding member* in 1949 and never left (I know which other country he means), and the journalist too should have remarked this. They both ought to be at least this well informed. If this colonel was at war he would *invade the wrong country.* I understand why the colonel never made it to general.
spot on
Proves he's just a mouthpiece with a script
@@fishmud3264 And not a great script at that....
To be fair he probably just misspoke. There is no way a military man wouldn't know that.
Because he was speaking the truth not your propaganda.
It's fascinating watching this 2 months after it's been uploaded. From the way he phrases things it's quite clear he has somewhat of a Russian sympathy and it also muddles his judgement. The "Russian counter offensive" has managed to give them a few gas stations and houses in Bakhmut at the cost of huge casualties.
He is a Russian agent.
Don't forget Soledar. Must never forget that huge victory, after pro Russian commentators like Ritter who promised sweeping Russian forces forging their way to the Polish border. He's still making those promises now. Amazing.
Another to watch out for is US Douglas McGregor. Russian propagandists are really promoting him hard. Under his videos, lots of Kremlin trolls pretending to be Americans.
I think he is just outlining possible scenarios.
We now know in hindsight the Wagner offensive in Bahkmut and Pregohzin's follow up towards Moscow and his end..
And that that's all Russia was able to take to date..etc..
Nonsense
I'd encourage viewers to read the comprehensive Wikipedia article about Richard Kemp, to better understand him. He's made a lot of controversial statements and accusations, so it's worth knowing what his values are.
Regardless, his ~30 years (1977-2006) of military experience makes his opinion valuable, but it also worth remembering that he's a conventional field officer who commanded tank units, which is where his particular expertise lies.
Rather believe in Hodges, Patreus etc.
Put your hand in the hand of the man who stilled the waters@@antomrvelj2342
As a rule, I don't find many "Experts" with less knowledge of the Ukraine War than I have. Today I'm feeling rather proud of myself!
Awesome nick 😂
Why is that
Sorry, is this written in English?
I was thinking the same all the time I was listening. We who follow many sources about this war we know much more than this expert. So many wrong premises...
Is that because his informed opinion differs to your?
US weakness shown by exiting Afghanistan or an overdue withdrawal? More than $2 trillion was spent in Afghanistan - a cost that researchers at Brown University estimated would be over $300 million a day for 20 years! Wasting resources on an intractable conflict was the sign of weakness in my opinion.
America is famous for fighting hopeless causes for many years. This should not be encouraging to Putin. If we left Vietnam/Afghanistan after only a couple of years, maybe then it would be a source of optimism.
That is maybe a typical kapitalist way of looking at things. It got too expensive so let’s quit. And that actually is also seen as American weakness.
It was the way Afghanistan was exited that showed weakness
The military industrial complex made the warmongers very rich. It couldn’t be done in very short wars
@@craighendrickson7938 How the US organizes its health sector made some people very rich and a lot of people bankrupt. That does not mean we should not have hospitals or care for the sick. It just means we failed to organize things properly.
This guy has got Russian money in his back pocket. A good fencer rider. 🌻
Its hard to defend a losing position, at least he is honest about it, pity he and his NATO friends didn't come to this conclusion earlier, lots of soldiers on both sides have had to die and now at best it will go back to the starting point.
very sad indeed, any winners, yes of course the arms industry 😰
No it’s alot of Ukrainian soldiers that have died. The leak report has admitted it. The Russian casualties have been over inflated by the Ukrainians.
This is the same guy who likely thought Ukraine would've fallen within a week.
It's the same guy who was just about to invade the wrong country (had he been at war). Now I understand why the good colonel never made it to general. Norway was a founding member of NATO in 1949, but at 35:55 the colonel syas Norway want to join NATO. What ??? Both he and the journalist ought to be better informed (I suspect he is thinking of Sweden).
Doesn't matter... The bigger picture stands: Ukraine is not defeating Russia and Russia will not let go the territory that they have taken.
@@guleiro they’ve already let go of plenty of the territory they had taking.
Or maybe the guy who said russia have 2 weeks of ammo and will run out of ammo and here we are after a year and whole EU and US combined cannot supply the ammo needed
Yes and he said it again. The only reason it's dragging on is because the west keeps supplying weapons to Ukraine as their goal is fighting to the last Ukranian. Unfortunately their strategy is working
Amazing how post invasion everyone is like, “Oh yeah, we knew it was going to happen all along.” Sure didn’t sound that way at the time.
Exactly. All these armchair military media analysts have been wrong from the start of the war. They have lost all credibility. Why believe them now.
Rubbish - the Russian buildup was clear in purpose.
They knew becuz they were goading him to do it.
I knew and was posting it everywhere from.Sept 2020 on. Obvious from reading UK Defence website to anyone who followed the 2014 and Minsk. Not a single reply. Ghost blocked?
@@savhass3956 Utter nonsense.
Let's be real, the only reason the Ukrainian army is holding on is because of the massive help is receiving from the West
"only"? No.
AND its own powers to keep fighting the war. Oversimplification is not a virtue.
@@gandydancer9710 and losing many Ukrainians ….is it worth it?
@@silviaargent551 Does this relate to anything I said? How?
Only people indoctrinated by FoxCorp think Ukraine is winning.
In reality they are only holding because of Western military debt eh, aid (yes, aid, is it aid?) that they are accruing over Russia.
@@gandydancer9710
Without Western support, Ukraine would have surrendered.
Over-simplification is essentially yes/no/maybe; and everything pretty much boils down to one.
Wrong guess, chief. Again we learn the simple truth: Morons gonna Moron. 😂🤦♂
I don't understand the point he is trying to make. Of course Ukraine needed help from the West for everything except the actual fighting and dying. So what?
He's a dummy mate. Try Alexander Mercouris
They are trying to belittle Ukraine. It is a colonialist attitude. The used to call them little Russia.
@@arjan2777 who is? The only people who belittle are those who want war, Zelensky, Boris & Biden. On this chat it's the same, bullies use insults not facts.
@@jamesstuart4018 Spot on James, even one of my relatives came out with some unsupported bullies propaganda he had heard on the TV.
That is of course a completely brain-dead summary of "the point he is trying to make".
Read the headline again. Then watch 41:26 et seq, which is where it is said. And so on.
The Telegraph never fails to disinform.
The collective West is blindly and slavishly following the hegemonic US using Ukraine in their proxy war against Russia. They have thrown relentless sanctions and the kitchen sink against Russia but in vain. Russia will prevail.
Has been since 1914 and look what happened there ! 😢
now he'd be like "Ukraine Spring offensive cannot prevail against Russian defense"
There`s no such thing as "Ukraine Cannot" . They proved this over and over again !
On the MSM paper and fake videos yes 😂
Kind of ironic that he is talking about advisors giving Putin incorrect info. on invading Ukraine, while at the same time saying that NATO should have kept a clearly losing strategy in Afghanistan.
NATO didn't lose any war in Iraq, they handed over to the local, who lost.
And talking about sovereign nations when they’re literally in Syria
Maybe the US should not have moved in to Afghanistan in the first place, and just kept bombing the terrorist training caps, and the Talibans AA capabilities if they tried to prevent it. Anyway that’s what I hoped they would do at the time. That would have been far more cost effective and maybe even have limited the suffering of the Afghan people.
Would not really say the US lost the Afghan war, as such. How ever the USSR clearly lost their Afghan war.
The US needed to get out of Afghanistan because of the growing threat from the PRC, and it was not really beneficial to spend that big a part of the US military budget on the continued presence. But it was the Afghan leadership supported by the west that lost the war.
But I think it should and could have been prevented.
The US and allied forces should pull out, but instead there should have been an increased presence of special forces and air/navel support.
@@xcrockery8080 ? Iraq and Afghanistan are two very different places
@@samuelgalea7679 To counter a Russian-supported terrorist invasion. Wise up.
Norway deciding to join NATO? Norway is a founding member! Surely he meant Sweden... but I find myself questioning how much stock I put into Kemp's analysis.
Ha colonel Kemp been at war he would have invaded the wrong country. 🤣🙄
Maybe that's why he never made it to general? - (And the journalist, who should have noticed, never made it to director?)
NATO and the EU provoked it. They were surprised that Putin would dare.
Hey general, so how did russian "spring offensive" go?
When exactly, in this video, did Colonel Kemp say "Ukraine cannot prevail against Russian Spring offensive"? He didn't. Putting this in the title of this video is REALLY poor journalism.
I'm surprised that The Telegraph "green-lit" this rubbish!
He said, early on, that if Ukraine hadn't been given the aid it has then it would have been difficult. In all, a misleading title perhaps.
Very misleading title. Clickbait.
41:31
It's the the very first thing he says. The very first thing.
Russian sleeper agent? With colonels like this it is relief that he is not in the military anymore.
Now I know the Colonel is not aware of mich happening
"Russian soldiers, much like Iraqis in the First Gulf War, simply don’t have a reason to fight." Come again! I fail to see any parallel between the situation of Russian soldiers on the offensive and Iraqi soldiers on the defensive. Apples and oranges.
I am also a former serving Officer and all I can say is that this chap's opinion is decidedly one-sided. I don't agree with him at all. He doesn't seem to have learned anything from what has happened so far in Ukraine. If anything he seems pro Russian.
Maybe not pro Russian, but really negative and pessimistic.
I never expected Russia to invade, as I was at the time sure that this was a war they could not win.
The way the Russian army, navy and especially Air Force have performed, has only made it more clear to me that Ukraine/the west, holds almost all the good cards.
Russias chance of fulfilling their original goals is close to none exciting and their chances of even a limited “win” of keeping the annexed areas is really small.
I only really see it as a possibility if, in the extremely unlikely situation where the west stop to support Ukraines war effort and society.
he is not pro-russian ... he is very clear WHY we in the civilised countries must do everything possible to avoid a Russian victory ; which would later on result in a Russian attack on Poland or Lithuania . He points out how valuable his own soldiers have been to Ukraine ... not to mention thousands of brave Poles , Canadians etc etc
I've watched this from beginning to end and I don't get that impression at all.
What is Ur rank and education
@@mwtrolle If there's no revolution in the power elite in Russia, that would bring a new, peaceful Russian leadership, which seems to be a pipe dream, this invasion can easily drag on for years. There's nothing to feel positive about. The world has dramatically changed after 24.02.2022 and nobody can tell where it all will lead us, especially since Ukraine is not the only geopolitical hotspot.
No 2014 Maidan coup, no Victoria Nuland's leaked phone call appointing Ukraine's president "Yatz is the guy, fook the EU" 🤣 these two fools are making the Brits look real bad..
Listening to him describing how poorly the Russians are equipped it is amazing they are not beaten by now...
There's a lot of them and were supposed to be the second strongest in the world.
Russia is absolutely slaughtering the peasant Ukrainians day-by-day. It's a land slide at this point.
It’s because he is lying 🤥
@@dianag7179 Surely not? That would be tantamount to propaganda and only communists resort to that....no?
Ukraine has been working hard to promote war!
I believe Norway is a founding member of NATO..
It is
I think he meant Sweden. He also said Russia once when he clearly meant Ukraine.
@@chip2373 .....twice!
Now we know why this colonel never rose to general. 😂 Had he been at war he would have *invaded the wrong country*
I belive Rusia wins like alweys I find out Jo Biden and nato are world criminal work ageinst human .and I belive Putin need to stop them in order to libarcion planet from ivile influance wich are Jo Biden and nato
Just watched the Russell Brand and Seymour Hersh interview. Quite a shock how much more politically informed and astute both were than anything going on here.
how true. This idiot says that Putin doesn't understand Ukraine. How stupid are these 2 morons.?? Kiev is the original Rus city....and more Ukrainians speak Russian than speak Ukraine. Zelensky's primary language is Russian and he had to be taught Ukrainian to be President.
There is no question that Putin understands Ukraine and understand well.
I was wrong. This guy is a bald-faced liar.
Absolutely, it beggar's belief how ill informed/misinformed the majority choose to be.
That’s because our media and political elite are corrupt and complicit in aiding and abetting this conflict… Listen to Scott Ritter , Col Doug Mcgregor, The New Atlas, Jeffrey Sachs, Jimmy Dore, The Grayzone, Garland Nixon, Prof John Mearsheimer, Col Richard Black
A long recap of items already discussed....nothing new ori important
This is why Kemp was a Colonel and not a General.
This video hasn't aged well. The spring offensive has been and gone and Russia managed to take, at the cost of about 30,000 troops, an area slightly larger than the size of Huntingdonshire
I would like to ask the Colonel how he thinks the Russian military is going to supply this larger number of troops given that we have seen their difficulties in logistically supporting less than 200,000 troops? Where are the additional trucks, etc. coming from?
It is a bit like an elephant crossing a plank bridge - even if it keeps it"s feet together it's weight will break the bridge.
..e have seen their difficulties in logistically supporting ..'' according to who, UKie/Brit Intel?
@@TommyTCGT russia's own captured troops and the occasional russian leaked video
@@foraminutethere23 so propagandists then & Russian soldiers not wanting shot.
I did a few calculations. When HIMARS arrived in theater, I estimated that Russia would need another 24,500 trucks when their logistics lines were pushed back to 80 km. Once the 150 km GLSDB or the 300 km ATACMS arrives, the Russians will require an additional 48,000 vehicles to supply the front lines (on top of the first 25,000). The Russians would have needed all 500,000 newly mobilized soldiers just to man their logistics network.....if the Ukrainians hadn't killed or wounded 100,000 of them already (after all, it has already been 5 months since mobilization).
However, we have now seen this Russian Spring offensive to stall without any strategical advancing. The Russian army was able to take over Soledar, but it has certainly not enough force to conquer the whole Donetsk province. Now most of the heavy weaponry from the West has arrived to Ukraine including the 80 Leopard 2 tanks and more than a hundred assault tanks. Very soon Ukraine will also get 33 Mig 29s from Poland and Slovakia, one million more artillery shells from EU and two trained Ukrainian brigades from abroad. So the big Ukrainian counter-offensive in late April in the Southern front has a good chance to be successful. Glory to Ukraine ! Glory to the heroes !
how did that work out?
@@user-eq9zx9ni4e "the big Ukrainian counter-offensive in late April in the Southern front has a good chance to be successful" - we will never know as it didn't happen - but if so, the big Ukrainian counter-offensive in June, or perhaps even July will have an even better chance to be successful. Get back to this in a month or so.
Glory to Ukraine?
Why?
Hows tbat going 😂
little troll must do better than this
They also didn't talk about the coup in 2014 which led to this whole mess
30 years as an Officer and he achieved the lofty rank of Colonel. Yes, this is a man he should listen to.
Getting higher requires arse licking.
LoL 😂
Exact😉
He had been held from promotion to general due to his rock the boat opinions.
He isn't saying that the Russians are going to win in the end. He's just saying that the summer offensive is going to be overwhelming.
I disagree. Long range weapons are pouring in now. Russian logistics are a shitshow now. Imagine twice as many troops with no rail within 200 miles of the Russian line. I'm expecting the strategy of Kherson played out over the entire Crimean peninsula.
Ukraine casualties higher than Russian? Source on that?
Ritter Black MacGregor almost everyone who isnt employed by western state propagandists.
Because I said so.....
.....smh.....
In a land war most casualties are down to artillery and troops often won't even see their enemy, Russia has fired more than 10 times as many shells than ukraine.
They also fly more than 10 times as many sorties, they also have an overwhelming advantage when it comes to having better equipment and cruse missiles
source? i made it tf up
Unlikely, that Ukrainian losses are more, than Ruzzian ones.
Ukrainian losses are huge, though.
Zaluzny said in Summer were 9'000 and in November 13'000,
but are likely twice as much.
Ukrainian Wikipedia lists names,
number 10'000th dead in December.
Propaganda:
Ruzzia x 10,
Ukraine x 2.
If Ukrainian losses would be huge,
then discontent inside Ukrainian
population would be much larger.
Is now 4 Apr 2023, statistically the russ winter offensive captured almost 0.01% of Ukrainian territory, unless their strategy was to capture 0.05% the offensive failed.
I like the way they present Putin as someone that keeps getting it all wrong.
Yet Putin keeps beating them, again and again.
Nice bit of double think.
That's exactly it, they simultaneously present putin as both an incompetent bafoon and an evil genius at the exact same time. Its bizzare lol
He’s a idiot! The entire west post the Cold War has been paralyzed by lack focus and a desire to compete. Putin did what he did in Ukraine in 2022 because he believed the west would be once again weak and hobble to rebuff his conquest. He miscalculated massively. The Americans after 2016 election interference were determined and salivating for revenge. If he’s wise, he will cut a deal and leave Ukraine. At this point, the Americans are spending less helping Ukraine than they did in the gulf war. Imagine that. 0.2% of gdp. They could easily ramp up their support for Ukraine and end this war.
An
How many united states presidents has putin outlasted?
@@ralph95 that’s because there are actual elections in the USA.
I wonder what his opinion would have been. in February last year? Or about the British chances in May 1940? (just before the Battle of Britain) - Defending your home gives an unknown multiplier. Ask Napoleon about how morale affects troops.
If the Ukraine's could hold the Russians in February they can hold them now. No questions asked.
That and the vast majority of their heavy weaponry was made in America under lend_lease to Stalin.
@Jon Gunson No they weren't. Ukrainians fought for Germany under Stepan Bandera lmaoo
@@oconnor6456 They fought on both sides, but mainly against the Russians who were hated even then from their atrocities against Ukraine. But then they found Germans treated them just as badly, but by then they were fewer.
@@jongunson4852 Find the picture of the Soviet flag being raised over Berlin. The guy in the photo, and the guy taking the photo were Ukrainian.
One month into its spring offensive and Russia is rolling out T-54 tanks from the 1940s. Wonder if the headline writer still thinks Ukraine cannot win?
Either this Colonel is right which I doubt or Colonel Douglas Macgregor is correct which seems far more likely.
Not just Col Macgregor.
There's a long history of spinning/doctoring/twisting the narrative to cover or justify sometimes mistakes other times deliberate actions of governments and/or their agencies.
It seems truth tellers and whistle-blowers are considered a threat to the ruling and corporate crony's status-quo and the attempts to smeared and silenced!
Smedley Butler and the likes of W Binney, Dr Kelly, C Gun, S Ritter, J Assange, E Snowden.... etc.
ok. i am not in armed forces.. but this guy's opinion that Russia.woll bounce back w more human in spring odfiensuve is totally whack..
British army personnel, equipment & ammunitions wouldn't last 3 months fighting against Ukraine, let alone Russia. Amazing to hear from British military science geniuses.
Literally millions of Vietnamese people died in that war so not sure why Ukraine is the “worst” unless some count more than others?
Where does this notion come from that the Russians have plenty of tanks left? The Russians had several thousand older tanks in storage at the start of the war, but many were stripped-down hulks, stored for decades outdoors with no protection and suitable for nothing but scrap.
With me I fail to understand why on all the discussion and most of the interviews why does these people ignore the real reason that coursed this war -" NATO back off from Rassian door steps" - If NATO can do like wise , I think the war will stop by tomorrow. Correct me if I am wrong.
I think we should listen carefully and take heed. Hubris is the last thing the West needs right now. A healthy respect for the enemy is essential. Plan for the worst, fight for the best to happen.
Comparts - Yes, hubris is what got Putin where he is now.
True. The Ukrainians in general are more conservative than the Russians, and that why they lost only a third of the soldiers Russia has lost.
I don't see excessive 'hubris', I think the awareness of danger is (finally) extensive, reality based and treated with absolute seriousness... it's one of the main drivers in support for Ukraine.
It's perhaps naive to mistake verbal moral and protective support from everywhere around the world as mere pride or over confidence -'Hubris'.... I've seen the amalgamation of hubris, propaganda and mind control pushed on russian controlled/influenced areas/territory by the russian federation, it's a powerful tool, horrifying to see let alone face as an invading force.
The alleged 'hubris' of 'the west' is largely a non issue my friend, it's clear a self entitled maniacal entity shouldn't be approached with soft spots exposed... humility/humanity/FairPlay/self effacement/compromise etc are all weaknesses to exploit and must be replaced with a show similar to the soulless entity being faced.
Any show of pride or confidence is as important in supporting Ukraine as weapons.
Ukraine has generations and centuries of russian interference and oppression, they and other russian neighbours have been signaling the danger for decades. Why are interviewers still dragging out learned and experienced non Eastern European experts and sprouting forth learned opinions as though the experts (Ukrainians) are clueless and fortunate to have western assistance?
SMH.....
Hubris and arrogance from 'the west' and from russia allowed the Russian federation to get to this point, damn right we should make sure it's stopped here and now.
@Bruce - more conservative with respect to caring for their own people - something the Kremlin is spectacularly indifferent too.
I do hope the numbers of casualties is weighted 3:1 or better, given the difference in cannon fodder available to only one side...
@@brucekliewer2623 The Ukrainians have lost close to 10 times the soldiers Russian has. Ask Mossad.
This dude is living dream land
Here we are, a month later, and Russia's offensive has made only tiny gains here and there, at the cost of enormous losses of personnel, vehicles, weapons and equipment.
Haha ....BBC Brainwashed 🐑
Ukraine has lost 27% of its land mass to Russia, how are that tiny gains?
@@thrillereighties8241 The best Land i Europe ...Factories ..natural resources ..The bread Basket of Europe ...
@@thrillereighties8241 Their spring offensive did not achieve any of that. And since when is 27% of a win anything to be proud of?
funny how so many experts get it wrong.
Yeah. A month ago the Ukrainians were winning and Russians were out of ammo . What happened ??
35:50 shows how -well- ill informed this -general- is: "NORWAY and Finland" want to join NATO ??? Norway was a _founding member_ in 1949. Could he be talking about Sweden? We're lucky this is an interview and not a war, because this"general" would invade the wrong country. 🤪
@@2msvalkyrie529 Things change. They will probably change several more times before it's over.
@@IAMGiftbearer They will change for the worse for the West/NATO, we only have expensive energy now from the US and Norway. The days of cheap fuel from Russia are over.
And then they said Ukraine would win by Christmas. Now it's the spring.
I came away thinking " Okay so the Colonel is a realist, but certainly NOT as pessimistic as the rather scary headline title implies.
I agree. The headline is Russian-esque click bait.
One man's "realist" is another man's "La-La Land"!
He is not a realist. Ukraine can and will win.
@@llionroberts45 Seems Ukraine is winning and the West is as always outproducing Russia. That is the honest truth.
There is a "school" in international relations known as "realism" and a similar one called "neorealism." Neither is particularly realistic but are quite pessimistic. He's realistic in a practical sense but not an academic sense.
Meersheimer is a neorealist. He is of the opinion that "great powers" are going to have their spheres of influence and if we don't want to risk nuclear war we need to cede the sphere to the Russians.
Speechless! This guy is a zero. Can’t believe he had a job in the British army
The only problem is that there would be no "spring offensive" by Russia. Russia has neither the weapons nor the trained troops for such an offensive.
To The Telegraph. Understand your audience during a war. Clips of this interview are all but certain to become Russian propaganda. The video title alone is ripe for a Russian TV headline. Deeply, deeply irresponsible.
As a regular viewer of Russian tv propaganda I couldn't agree more.
The truth is bitter sometimes isn't it
So best of continuing to spread propaganda?????
@@GlobalSouthObserver It's not "truth" it's one mans opinion.
@@GlobalSouthObserver As mentioned by Eli, it's his opinion. The issue isn't the content of the interview, but how easily it makes propaganda. For Russia's dictator, the truth is the last thing the Russian people deserve,
Stephen should interview Col Douglas Macgregor Retired
Right - MacGregor and Scott Ritter! ...and the Duran, Mearscheimer, Sachs, the New Atlas...
@@hal7ter All fantasists that live in some parallel world.
@@andrewplater1782 Personal attacks betray your lack of knowledge
Of course America has no interest in Ukraine what so ever does it 🙄
The Ukrainian men have excellent morale - they are showing their man-hood - fighting to defend their families - their land. The Russian men, on the other hand, were duped into the war - first being told they were just on a military exercise. The Russian men also have 'invader's remorse' which will eat into them.
They're dying in ratio 7:1 lol
Well. He sure got that wrong, didn't he? 😂
Ukraine is being trained in Combined Arms right now and they WON'T avoid using it.
Well, they have prevailed thus far. I think maybe the retired officer is misunderstanding what has been demonstrated in the actual battlefield.
This is where I take the gloves off. These clowns keep vocalizing that Putin didn’t know or got bad advice. The tail doesn’t wag the dog. Putin decided this is what he wanted to do, regardless of the facts on the ground. Just like he can’t pull out or correct his course. He’s doubling down on a bad decision.
This line of thought comes from the same line of thought that Putin changed back in the 90’s. He didn’t change. This is an expression of who he always was and a reaction to who he perceived the west is/was.
Also Putin wasn't very wrong. That first week could easily have gone the other way.
Put the marigolds back on mate. Ur not a putin shrink like the rest of the armchair repeaters.
Exactly. Ive been saying for years the man has a soviet mindset where he cannot possibly conceive the reality of a smaller power choosing their political course without it being some plot from Washington manipulating the minds of the millions. He cannot grasp a scenario of people's choice and unfortunately he only understands one language, the language of force. There is a great pbs series called the putin files here on CZcams. It's worth a listen. The us obviously wants to promote democracy and will do so through western favorable media, etc. But by and large, other nations are drawn to western alliances of commerce and defense of their own volition.
What people don't seem to realise ,is the Supreme UA general was trained with in Russian tactics and then NATO's as well. The fact Kemp admits that many senior Russian officers have been taken out, almost with impunity via good intelligence, shows something of UA abilities.
@@andrewmalone3073 just cause someone says something doesn't make it true. In this propaganda war the UA & USA thinks it is winning but in reality their world collapses. I pity Ukraine people who sacrifice for what? Land they dont own & never will? It is the collapsing capitalist empire who lives in the.past, not the chess playing long game tacticians. Biden Sunak & Schonberg are idiots.
Informative and dispassionate discussion by a level-headed interviewee and an urbane interviewer!
,,😪🤕😁
What compelled Russia to invade Ukraine? If Ukraine is not a member of NATO, why are NATO countries contributing or getting involved in the conflict?
Very honest answer from Col Richard Kemp on Russian war. Ukraine without Western support.Russian would have walk through Ukraine defences.
Would Britain have fallen with out India Canada Australia new Zealand ect?
True but they do have Western support. That is likely why the propaganda fight is the main front now.
Col Kemp sounds just like that other Russian shill, Col MacGregor. Both have been wrong on every prediction. Kemp's lack of knowledge of the basic facts and his false assumptions is glaring.
I think he's perhaps overstating things slightly but I also think that the title is clickbait. I see a point to it though. It will get more pessimists clicking on it than a more neutral title. These people are then exposed to a less pessimistic scenario than they usually would have clicked on. Maybe they will widen the range of potential outcomes they think about.
I can find a bright lining around almost anything.
It takes 41:26 for Kemp to get around to saying it, but he does finally justify the clickbait headline. And, no, without that headline I wouldn't have bothered to listen, since I reject so many of his premises.
Except this guy gives himself away as a pillock almost as he opens his gob.
41:31
For every western tank theres 1000 to 1500 Russians entering. Poorly trained and kitted out? Sure. But that’s Always been the Russian way, and they’ve won about half their wars this way.
@@unelectedleader6494 They've also lost wars. Didn't help them much in Vuhledar recently.
IMHO Ukraine is fighting for Bakhmut tooth and nail to keep the Russian elite forces tied up and because of a favorable casualty ratio. City fighting very heavily favors the defender. I don't know when the ground will be solid enough for an offensive, but I believe Ukraine is building a large offensive force that will be completed in May. That's why they aren't throwing lots of reserves into the fray right now.
If Russia's elites get distracted and depleted in Bakhmut, that's a plus for Ukraine. Russia has to defend everywhere but Ukraine can choose the time and place to attack. Who knows how Russian conscripts will react to being overrun?
Kemp was spot on. Compare that to Ben Hodges prediction: Ukraine to liberate Crimea by August (August 2023 that is).
WE must never forget the destuction of the former Yugoslavia.
Richard Kemp is a Pound shop Douglas McGregor
I’d recommend anyone look into Kemp’s military prowess. McGregor, despite being a lunatic has some credibility, this man has none. He was in charge of Afghanistan when there were less than 100 troops there. He led a poor regiment and is of absolutely no consequence.
40:10 while it’s true that the Russians have mobilized far more then they have lost, a good part of who they lost are their special forces, specialist, and better trained troops from the standing army who have been trained for months/years by better trainers and with better facilities.
That do not come back because they mobilized, especially as their mobilization seems kind of random.
Where did this info come from? The Telegraph? 😆 🤣
@@jamesstuart4018 common sense? This was supposed to be a quick operation, so they sent professional army in first. Not hard to figure out that they also died first.
@@jamesstuart4018
Ukraine has gotten better weapons since the invasion, they are also better trained as Thousands head to Poland, Germany, UK and other NATO bases for training
Russia is going to realise it made a colossus mistake when it tries to shove low morale ill equipped troops who has no reason why they are fighting into the battlefield.
Russia will not win, and even if they did take territory, Ukraine will sit, rearm and strike at the opportune time
@@kirkpatrick7475 All this new weapons from the West and it's still nothing for the Russians. 😂
Russia is toying with Ukraine to deplete NATO stockpiles. When the Russians think the Ukrainians have enough stocks from NATO they will just simply use the missiles to destroy them. If it doesn't work theb they will use the Nukes.
Currently Russia is advancing in Kharkiv region pushing further up from the Luhansk border, Russia is advancing on Bakhmut and the Donetsk region pushing to capture the entire Donetsk oblast and the front in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson is stagnant. If Russia lossess are so great why is Russia still advancing? How is Russia able to advance with poorly trained conscripts, cannon fodder, lack of ammunitions and poor morale? Maybe NATO's troops is on the ground helping Russia advance against the Ukrainian, this must be the only explanation because NATO's troops are the best in the world and Russia never wins any battles.
Here we are 3 months later, and he was dead wrong !! Too comfortable in his retirement ?
Wow Russia has 45% of Ukraine, just think,,, just think what would have happened if they hadn't had so much lack of planning corruption, tanks breaking down under performing troops and how badly trained and armed must be Ukraine to allow that to happen, after all the years of preparation by NATO
“Russia has stopped the bleeding and learned from its mistakes.”
Really Richard?, 1000 KIA orcs a week is way more than they lost in the early months of the invasion.
Lol sources : ukrainian gov
@@battlereport9746 ok botski
@@vladraduandrei5227 i am not a bot
He has no real experience in a war...this man is not qualified to comment
@@battlereport9746 source the orc massacre at vuhledar, the entire 155th "elite" marine brigade wiped out 😂 russia is pathetic
If the Russian have done so poorly in this conflict then why is it still happening and why is Europe so worried about Russia.
NATO is a paper tiger, the Germans can’t even move out of barracks and the English army can’t even half fill Wembley Stadium.
Like the way military pundits predicted Ukraine will fold in days or weeks.
Without Western military support it would have done.
There are no ukrainians left to fight this war
This UK colonel's analysis and narrative is not credible, gaslighting as a matter of fact. Contrast with US Colonel Douglas MacGregor's analysis on CZcams for reliable information.
@@billpardew2375 according to who?
@@BlyatimirPootin farmers
One correction from this interview. At 35.58 the Col. said "Finland and Norway deciding to join". He means "Finland and Sweden". Norway were a founding member of NATO in 1949. I'd be a little upset about this mistake if I was Norwegian :)
What the colonel neglects to mention is Russia's point of view. For that I suggest
1. John Mearsheimer
2. Jeffrey Sachs
3. Colonel Douglass Macgregor
4. Colonel Richard Black
COL Kemp starts of with a competent analysis of Year 1 War On Ukraine. He fully understands Russians except for Combined Arms. Russians define Combined Arms as artillery support for maneuver Units. Air power is not a fundamental part of Russian Combined Arms.
COL Kemp completely loses it on understanding Ukrainian forces. My competency in area is as a MAJ with Armor and MI training. COL Kemp is flat out wrong in what it takes to win. He stated morale as the most key factor in combat then takes this back with talk of foreign intelligence, foreign weapons, and even speculation on foreign advisors. This is perfect UK elitist pomposity!
Here is a fairer analysis of Ukrainian forces:
1-Ukrainian guts in leadership and troops made the biggest difference in this war.
2-Ukrainians have used whatever NATO weapons they have received to their upmost capabilities and even innovated some uses.
3-Ukrainians have demonstrated brilliance with deception plans and trading space for time.
4-Ukrainians learn very fast. Since US Advisors help restructure the Ukrainian Military from 2018 to 2022 went they were pulled, Ukrainians created a critical NCO Corp which has meant so much in the current fight. Some Units were reorganized around a NATO Brigade architecture, some Units still use Soviet Era architecture. This is a work in progress which NATO equipment and Basic Training will also help correct.
Conversely, I can also look at some significant Ukrainian military failures, not defeats, which could have helped their cause:
1-Ukrainians southern Command did not build defensive barriers along the Crimea Oblast border after Crimea was annexed. This was a huge mistake.
2-When Kherson Oblast East was overrun, the 3 bridges to Kherson Oblast West were not destroyed.
3-During the great Ukrainian Kharkiv Offensive, a follow on force of fresh troops, possibly Reserves, were not used to liberate Svatove and Kreminna before Russians could regroup and reinforce their positions in those cities. This was a Ukrainian Military Command failure to grasp the NATO concept of relentlessness. This might be also because Ukrainians have a no big defeat policy.
COL Kemp continues his future analysis of Putin’s War On Ukraine is total BS. He offers zero basis of HOW the Russians will achieve their goals except to add more soldiers. This is the same line of crap presented up to the point Ukrainians counterattacked with HIMARS. What happens to Putin’s Russian army when Ukrainian introduce NATO MBTs and IFVs with a doubling of Ukraine’s MIG29 fleet.
Please stop entering into US politics with Republicans not backing Ukraine. Out of 222 Republicans, 10 might feel this way. The Democrats have 212 and also have at least 10 not supporting Ukraine.
COL Kemp’s forfeiting of Crimea shows his lack of understanding of the terrain. Crimean water and power come from Ukraine. HIMARS in Melitopol can target every Crimean airbase and fortification. Maybe the the Russians will leave “voluntarily” after a siege like in Kherson Oblast West. Additionally, the US could supply about 300 Marine amphibious vehicles facilitate a Ukrainian liberation of Crimea. Kemp should temper his comments until a Crimea Decision Point is reached.
Agreed.
Disagree
Kemp is a Russian Stooge & Troll. Ukraine wins on all fronts. Slavo Ukraine! European Party Of Nations/ENC
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful and informed analysis. The limited occurrences and scope of Ukrainian exploitation of opportunities after winning a battle has troubled me. What could a cohesive, trained armoured brigade or three have achieved after Kyiv, Kherson? I've rather concluded that AFU training and competence in the field (maybe not Gen. Staff, who seem to be v. competent in diff. and changing circumstances ) is good & improving, at unit level, but is not yet seen to be adequate at formation level for effective armoured counter-attacks. And then there's eqpt. Interesting point about amphibious armoured vehicles. If Melitopol and the Azov sea coast is liberated some degree of fire support becomes a better prospect. Meanwhile, I hope for more and better kit to arrive, and that the Finns, Poles or other friends are quietly sending cluster bomb rounds to Ukr, partic GMLRS as there seems to be an imminent need
@@davidmanning7912 If I were in Ukraine’s Military Command, I would be able to confirm or deny their emphasis of NEVER losing battle over pursuing a relentless Offensive. I posted several times as the Kharkiv Offensive unfolded, that pushing to Starobelsk was too far, but not using fresh Reserves to liberate Svatove and Kreminna was not pushing far enough. However, I am making this call in the safe abstract and not as a Ukrainian Military Command leader knowing more Intel. For example, are there Russian bootlickers in Kharkiv who would call the Russians if they saw Ukrainian Reserves move east? Could this have led to a Russian push on Kharkiv? I can say take the gamble, but Ukrainian military leaders might feel its too big a gamble to take.
That's what King David vs Goliath, Alexander, Caesar and Churchill's opponents said too...
49:08 Isn’t it sad when one tries to be principled but has to stammer out so many caveats.
thankfully, he was wrong 41:43, the offensive has run out of steam for weeks now
At no point did Colonel Kemp say "Ukraine cannot prevail against Russian Spring offensive' he talked about it being difficult to prevail. Given there are no plans to send large numbers of Abram tanks any time soon or western aircraft things seem uncertain in the short term at best.
Obviously it’s not going to be easy but they can do it. They must and THEY WILL 🇺🇦💙💪
I think he said -I don't know how they can prevail in the spring offensive, which was pretty chilling. He is one of only a few experts stating that Ukraine has lost more troops than Russia. Most experts state that offense takes 3X that of defense, as a general rule and that Russia troops are being decimated, especially the prison crew.
@@doreeneclose6295 If Ukraine has lost more troops than Russia, then it is amazing that despite having the larger military and inflicting greater casualties on a much smaller enemy, Russia has still lost much of the territory it took early in the war and struggles today to even gain 100m. That is not because the Russians are having difficulty climbing over dead Ukrainian soldiers.
@@doreeneclose6295 yes something wrong. R is losing 1000 per day this past few weeks. wagner group lost 50% or more and has problems getting replacements. so we have to take a grain of salt these statements.
@@drakelang8342 the losses in the Ukrainian army are so huge that Zelensky is already sending old and disabled people to the meat grinder. All Ukrainian soldiers have already been killed.
Glad he wasn’t an officer on MacArthur’s, Eisenhower’s, or even Patton’s staffs. We’d all be in the streets today running around screaming “Bonzai” or “Heil Hitler”. 😤
❤the initial invasion was a bluff, 90 000 force was insufficient. Withdrawal from Kiev was a precondition to negotiations in Istanbul
Leave to the Telegraph to put on some weaselly defeatest 'authority."
The Ukranians are already defeated, more weapons will just get the old and 16 year old conscripts in Ukraine killed. Open your eyes.
@@TerryAShaw Go bother someone else or I will pull your plug.
Need to investigate whos paying this guy. Its clearly too much 😂😂😂😂
Defo..! 🇺🇦💪💙
Seems like those Trump generals in America who seem to be little more than paid Putin propagandists. QAnon in the US are acting the same; they are basically paid up by Russia to spout pro-Russian, anti-Zelenskyy rhetoric ... his refusal to lie on Trump's behalf has really stung his fanbase a lot!
This didn't age well. He will say it's the 2024 spring.
As I guessed, straight off the script well done general
This guy is wrong. The reason Russia entered with limited forces was because they had to defend the region of Donbass from shelling. They leaders in Donbass asked for help.
Hang on a minute. (35:50) Finland and SWEDEN want to join NATO. Norway was one of the founding members..
Thanks for spotting that. I fell asleep before the 30 mins. mark yesterday. I'm amazed by how many who falsely think it's Norway or occasionally Denmark, and always mistaken for Sweden; they always remember Finland correct. When it's some CZcamsr trying to be serious it's one thing. But when journalists or generals do it shocks me, they really ought to be better informed.
Who cares ? -
@@rob5197 I do.
The strength of an army is rooted in it’s will to fight. The answer was yes . Period.
No, the strength of an army is in its superior combined force. The battlefield is littered with brave Ukrainian soldiers who had a strong will to fight.
IN my day it was well known that an army marches on it stomach. I pose that the poor Ukrainians have no stomach for this fight at this point in time, the US have said they will fight to the last Ukrainian.
@@johnnoble7522 That may be the biggest weakness of the Russian army. The lack of attention to logistics.
@@FrancisHegarty both my guy, both
Wolf: "The answer was yes . Period."
‘Ukraine cannot prevail against Russian Spring offensive’ is a statement, not a question.
See 41:26.
These are the kind of experts that predicted Ukraine would be beaten in a few days. So would take a their predictions with a pinch of salt
The amount of arrogance and just outright disrespect for other countries is staggering from both the interviewer and the colonel. Are they born like this in the west or they have to work at it?
Afghanistan and Ukraine are as comparable as peas and apples. I'm unsure as to why Putin failed to see that.
An "educated guess" about Ukraine having more casualties because they have "less people to turn into soldiers" is down right idiotic.
how does that even make sense?
There is a reason that he was a Colonel and not a General. Just sayin'....
It’s the artillery and the ammo to respond where Ukraine falls short.
Wow. If your leader knows 20K+ troops on the verge of being surrounded and instead of the leader giving orders to pull the troops out, instead tells the troops to keep fighting on. This is the exact scenario we've seen in Soledar, now Bakmut, and looks like gonna be Siversk soon. We've not seen any of this from the Russian side. Seems like the Ukrainian leadership could care less about their troops not the vice versa. The Ukrainian forces have greatly benefitted from UK intelligence, that's for sure.
Well this is depressing.
Uniform personnel call a spade a spade .. !!