Hey! Ive been reading and doing alot of research on investing in stocks the last 2 years. Your video (and I’m only half way thru) made a bigger impact on my learning than any of those books, podcasts, audio books. Your video and the way you are explaining your process made me able to connect my dots. Now that’s value ! Thank you so much! You are a true inspiration and aspiration on how to share, educate and lead.
Thanks so much! Glad the videos are proving helpful. If you need further help please send me an email and I will be happy to help: hamish@hamishhodder.com
A+++ from this retired educator! Easy to understand and follow, breaking down components of each subject, and plenty of examples. For those of you who are newbies and overwhelmed, REPETITION is the mother of all learning. Thank you for the freebies, Hammish--sending you massive energy for wealth and success!
I know there are no certain things with the market, but when you show an example with specific company and 1 year later the stock is down almost 30%, you're starting to doubt the method a bit. But it looks logic + there is no rule, that once you buy at this price the market would only go up. Let's see what happens in the long run, but for now, I'll pass on that ;)
intrinsic value formula=div(1-1/(i+1)^n)/(i+1)^n + FV/(i+1)^n where i is rate of 10 year federal note. div=dividend for 1 year n for time period FV= future value of equity
Good Job Hamish. So many people buy into stocks on an emotional basis instead of taking the time to actually calculate and analyze a strategic entry point. Keep it up!
Hi Hamish, thank you for the informative video, I have a question, should I add the dividend yield to the EPS or remove it from the rate of return as you mentioned, would they give different results?
Hello Hamish, thanks for your very clear videos. They are very useful! I have one question with your video. In your example you use a $8 dollar EPS (ttm), but lately i has gone to $4,36 (ttm) for THOR. Was using the $8 dollar a bit optimistic? Should we better take an average over several years just like the PE ratio?
Wow loved your video I am currently studying masters of finance but want to study trading as well and your videos are just what I need. I am going to binge watch all of them.
I just try to figure out which price ratio seems best for the industry (sales, earnings, book) and then buy at extremely cheap looking ratios where I don't have to know the intrinsic value I just know I'm buying at less than that. Don't know my return but don't have to make a bunch of assumptions that could be totally off base either. Just have faith that buying cheap pays off. Switched to this approach away from DCF analysis because it saves massive amounts of time and worry/headache about what's the right figures and thought Monish Pabrai's argument around this topic made a lot of sense. If it's less than liquidation value or p/e is 1 its obviously a buy. Edit: I also use Schiller's CAPE ratio, although this works horribly for high growth companies.
You can calculate growth rates of stocks on the wall St website. go to the stock your looking at in financials go to balance sheet scroll all the way down to equities and liabilities open up then scroll down to equity now you can compare the equity growth from 5 years ago. here are calculators to help calculate this. Wrote this before watching video. so it might also be described in the video.
I think I figured out what he means. First, the author of the video has a worksheet. Download it. The worksheet has the tab to calculate the growth rate, but you need to input numbers in the "data input" tab. The row that produces the growth rate, is, not surprisingly, "equity" row on row 5 (in input tab.) If you already know that, that's great! I must say I didn't know that for myself, and it took me like 10, 15, minutes to figure out. And where would one get the "equity" figures? In Yahoo Finance, you can go to "Financials" then "Balance sheet." (Oh, and it's the "Shareholders equity." I'm a beginner here for all those shorthand, I guess. I was not sure of that myself for a while. But now I'm positive about that.) But it only gives you 4 years. WSJ gives you 5 years (just Google the stock name and balance sheet.) More than 5 years, I don't know. Hopefully someone else can post here?
Well, the valuation of THO is changing. The EPS now is 2.14 dollar. If we take growth of 12%, the future EPS after 10 years will be 6.6 dollar, multiplying pe of 15 and divide by 8 it's 12dollar per share. This is the valuation of the stock for now...
Thanks for a very informative video. I've been investing for a few years and wrestling with determining what a good buying price is. Your formulas will sure be a great help. Thanks again ! Subscribed and going to watch your other videos soon.
@@HamishHodder Can you send me the spreadsheet to my email @ t.hai46@yahoo.com? Also what do you think of sites like Simply wall st. They also have an analysis on thor industries and are also stating that it is undervalued same as yours.
When a company has a dividend are you subtracting the dividend yield from the 15% or just assuming a 1.5% dividend paid? Should 13.5% be used for evaluating all companies with a dividend?
simply excellent and probably one of a kind on this type of complex topic which you made so simple. thank you. do you have any video on setting up of technical analysis / chartings etc for better entry and exit signal of stocks?
Hi, thanks for your video! I'm having a little trouble using your spread sheet. I'm forwarning you that I'm a complete begininner so this might not be a difficult question. But, when I input the eps, stock price, and required rate of return, nothing happens in the manual buyzone calculator box. What do you think? I really want to be able to value a stock and make an intelligent decision if its worth buying.
Hi Hamish, I still confuse what PE you were using. You didn't show it in the video. Based on the yahoo finance page in the video EPS 8.14 PE 8.21 Growth agreed ad 15% Expected Return agreed on 13.5%, and input all those figures to your formula Fair Value = (EPS * PE * (1+Growth)^10)/(1.135)^10 is not equal to $139.23. The only way to get the result to be $139.23 is by replacing PE with growth =15. CMIIW
Hey Hamish, great video, I have two questions, is this formula work for financial companies? Also, what would be the best intrinsic value method, DCF this method and other methods? Thanks
Great video I was trying to use this worksheet for a negative EPS but was having some difficulties but this PRTY stock has a -5.57 EPS with a current stock price of .6611. There is lots of talk for a push up on value but we don’t know. It’s risky since chapter 11 is in sight but not chapter 7 yet so there is a chance of recovery
I am analysing Caplin point. Their growth is 38 % according to experts. I put the values in spreadsheet and the growth numbers are high. But the price of the stock is falling. What growth rate should be used.
Looks like you are not applying Rule of 72 by Phil Town in calculating GROWTH, an author of the book that you recommended in one of your previous video. What is the difference between your formula of growth calculation to that of Phil Town's
Hi Hamish, thanks for the advise, this is very concise and appreciated. I can't find the 'BUY ZONE' tab in the spreadsheet, do you have a direct link to it? Thanks again and keep up the good work... :)
Hamish, thanks for being so forthcoming. Each time someone shares their understandings, as you have, we all take steps forward. MUCH APPRECIATED. Okay, I have a question/request. I'm interested in Prem Watsa's (Canadian Guru Investor that Phil Town speaks about) recent purchase of the Bank of Nova Scotia -- ticker BNS.TO. I've tried to evaluate it but am stumbling because of the reams of confusing financials connected to this institution's year end reports (and quarterlies, for that matter). I recognize that I should push this one aside into a "too hard" pile, however, I still want to understand how to evaluate banks. Can you help? Many thanks for your clarity and attention to detail.
Isn't just easier to estimate the intrinsic value just looking into the stock price chart? And thats it? Instead of guessing the value of factors like company growth, future PE and assuming the numbers like 50% and 15% based on what? If you assume that your company has stable growing EP ratio for last 10 years, can't you just assume the same for the stock price?
I don’t understand the buy price part... I’m supposed to only buy stocks that are 50% cheaper than the fair value?? That seems like playing it too safe to ever buy a share.
Hi Hamish, could you update the spreadsheet? The version 3 doesn't have the Buy zone calc tab. Also for MAINTENANCE CAPEX, do we use Net PPE value? Is there a single website where we could get all these data for each company?
hi, first of all really thanks for your free spreadsheet. However, i met some issues that what component would u consider as maintenance of capital expenditure. PPE, Intangibles and?? ( i am using 2020 version 3.0)
Hi Hamish, thanks for the informative video. In this video, the formula seems to be similar to Phil Town’s and doesnt appear like the Discounted future cash flow. Is that right? Which one is your preference? Thanks
Hey! Ive been reading and doing alot of research on investing in stocks the last 2 years. Your video (and I’m only half way thru) made a bigger impact on my learning than any of those books, podcasts, audio books. Your video and the way you are explaining your process made me able to connect my dots. Now that’s value ! Thank you so much! You are a true inspiration and aspiration on how to share, educate and lead.
Thanks so much! Glad the videos are proving helpful. If you need further help please send me an email and I will be happy to help: hamish@hamishhodder.com
A+++ from this retired educator! Easy to understand and follow, breaking down components of each subject, and plenty of examples. For those of you who are newbies and overwhelmed, REPETITION is the mother of all learning. Thank you for the freebies, Hammish--sending you massive energy for wealth and success!
Got 0% knowledge on Stock market and have just started to educate myself on how it works. Great content. T'was a big help. More power Hamish!
Which calculation for the value of intrinsic value is most accurate: 1) DCF(earnings based), 2) DCF (FCF based), 3) projected FCF. Thank you.
I appreciate this. I've been investing for about 3 years, and this is really good and informative video.
This video is simplification Phil Town Rule #1 Investing and The intelligent Investor. Thank you so much.
I'm been investing for an year now and learn most of the days how is that I missed your videos
I know there are no certain things with the market, but when you show an example with specific company and 1 year later the stock is down almost 30%, you're starting to doubt the method a bit. But it looks logic + there is no rule, that once you buy at this price the market would only go up. Let's see what happens in the long run, but for now, I'll pass on that ;)
Hamish, I have no idea how I stumbled on your video but it brilliant. You explain things really well. Thank you.
Thanks for watching James!
intrinsic value formula=div(1-1/(i+1)^n)/(i+1)^n + FV/(i+1)^n
where i is rate of 10 year federal note.
div=dividend for 1 year
n for time period
FV= future value of equity
Also we can read Ben Graham's 'Intelligent Investor' book from the 1940's which covers all of these points in more detail.
Hi, the detailed explanation of calculating the buy price of a stock is very useful for the people who are investing in stock market.
This is absolutely fantastic! You're bang on with this Hamish!! Great work!
Good Job Hamish. So many people buy into stocks on an emotional basis instead of taking the time to actually calculate and analyze a strategic entry point. Keep it up!
Absolutely! Thanks for watching.
Thanks for your video Hamish
Hi, i couldnt go in the bi zone calculator, is it removed or what happend to that section
You need to download the old version which is version 2.2.
I've been looking for videos like this for so long. Thank you so so much
The 2021 10 year spreadsheet doesnt have the Buy Zone Calc section along with other sections
i wanted to ask about the same thing
You make everything sound so simple and understandable man! Thank you! Keep up the good work!
The way you describe in this vid is so clear. That has made me more confident to invest in value stock .thank you😻
have you been able to use the knowledge in this video successfully or unsuccessfully?
Fun
Great video, but unable to enter figures, they’re locked in the spreadsheet
Great content Hamish, thanks for the free education😀
Hi Hamish, thank you for the informative video, I have a question, should I add the dividend yield to the EPS or remove it from the rate of return as you mentioned, would they give different results?
Hello Hamish, thanks for your very clear videos. They are very useful! I have one question with your video. In your example you use a $8 dollar EPS (ttm), but lately i has gone to $4,36 (ttm) for THOR. Was using the $8 dollar a bit optimistic? Should we better take an average over several years just like the PE ratio?
Wow loved your video
I am currently studying masters of finance but want to study trading as well and your videos are just what I need. I am going to binge watch all of them.
I just try to figure out which price ratio seems best for the industry (sales, earnings, book) and then buy at extremely cheap looking ratios where I don't have to know the intrinsic value I just know I'm buying at less than that. Don't know my return but don't have to make a bunch of assumptions that could be totally off base either. Just have faith that buying cheap pays off. Switched to this approach away from DCF analysis because it saves massive amounts of time and worry/headache about what's the right figures and thought Monish Pabrai's argument around this topic made a lot of sense. If it's less than liquidation value or p/e is 1 its obviously a buy. Edit: I also use Schiller's CAPE ratio, although this works horribly for high growth companies.
Hamish, im still confusing where i can get the number to determine growth rate?
You can calculate growth rates of stocks on the wall St website.
go to the stock your looking at
in financials go to balance sheet
scroll all the way down to equities and liabilities
open up then scroll down to equity
now you can compare the equity growth from 5 years ago.
here are calculators to help calculate this.
Wrote this before watching video. so it might also be described in the video.
@@mattzuydam No one can 100% accurately calculate growth, that's an art.
@@mattzuydam This video is so wrong, Buffett,Munger,Clarman,Pabrai use DCF not this terrible advice!
@@satisfyinglook8291 Yeah obviously but gives the bloke a rough idea and where to start looking at least. :)
I think I figured out what he means. First, the author of the video has a worksheet. Download it. The worksheet has the tab to calculate the growth rate, but you need to input numbers in the "data input" tab. The row that produces the growth rate, is, not surprisingly, "equity" row on row 5 (in input tab.) If you already know that, that's great! I must say I didn't know that for myself, and it took me like 10, 15, minutes to figure out.
And where would one get the "equity" figures? In Yahoo Finance, you can go to "Financials" then "Balance sheet." (Oh, and it's the "Shareholders equity." I'm a beginner here for all those shorthand, I guess. I was not sure of that myself for a while. But now I'm positive about that.) But it only gives you 4 years. WSJ gives you 5 years (just Google the stock name and balance sheet.) More than 5 years, I don't know. Hopefully someone else can post here?
how do you estimate the different growth rate? how do you choose which buy price to use considering they correspond to different growth rates?
Well, the valuation of THO is changing. The EPS now is 2.14 dollar. If we take growth of 12%, the future EPS after 10 years will be 6.6 dollar, multiplying pe of 15 and divide by 8 it's 12dollar per share. This is the valuation of the stock for now...
Hi Hamish, enjoy your videos immensely….. very informative!!! Just a question, what is the best free stock screener ???
I finally learned stuff. :]
What if EPS for the current year is negative, but good company? Thanks for the video mate cheers
Thanks for a very informative video. I've been investing for a few years and wrestling with determining what a good buying price is. Your formulas will sure be a great help. Thanks again ! Subscribed and going to watch your other videos soon.
I had to update the formula in Cell H8 under the BUY ZONE CALC to =IF(B6H7,"SELL",IF(B6
this video deserves infinite likes. thank you.
you are a legend ✌🏻 thanks for watching
@@HamishHodder Can you send me the spreadsheet to my email @ t.hai46@yahoo.com? Also what do you think of sites like Simply wall st. They also have an analysis on thor industries and are also stating that it is undervalued same as yours.
the spreadsheet dowload keeps saying unable to download file. Need help thanks
Thank you, you explained that extremely well
When a company has a dividend are you subtracting the dividend yield from the 15% or just assuming a 1.5% dividend paid? Should 13.5% be used for evaluating all companies with a dividend?
simply excellent and probably one of a kind on this type of complex topic which you made so simple. thank you. do you have any video on setting up of technical analysis / chartings etc for better entry and exit signal of stocks?
Thank you so much Hamish...
This video is awesome, I can’t thank you enough. God bless you Hamish.
This was much more easy to understand then your pal Brandon
the link to your spreadsheet is not working. please be so kind and send another link that work.
Thanks for sharing awesome information. Great Explanations. Appreciations for your work.
Your video is much more valuable than all investing videos i previously watched
Thank you!
Thank you for posting this video. Deep value here that creates a good base for continued learning. I appreciate you!!
Excellent content! I will be watching your future videos!
You have a such a beautiful flow of words.. keep at it ma man.. & thank you
Can you please resend the link to the spreadsheet
www.hamishhodder.com/spreadsheet
@@HamishHodder thank you!!
@@denni-swan no problem!
I have about 20 businesses on my watchlist and none of them are at my margin of safety. Being patient is difficult.
Excellent talk
Great video. Can you include the link to the spreadsheet also. Thanks.
Hi Hamish,
The video was very informative. But I couldn't found Buyzone calculator sheet on File. Please advise me how can I access it.
Hi, thanks for your video! I'm having a little trouble using your spread sheet. I'm forwarning you that I'm a complete begininner so this might not be a difficult question. But, when I input the eps, stock price, and required rate of return, nothing happens in the manual buyzone calculator box. What do you think? I really want to be able to value a stock and make an intelligent decision if its worth buying.
Thank you so much for sharing this useful data! Greatly appreciated!
Hi Hamish, I still confuse what PE you were using. You didn't show it in the video. Based on the yahoo finance page in the video EPS 8.14 PE 8.21 Growth agreed ad 15% Expected Return agreed on 13.5%, and input all those figures to your formula Fair Value = (EPS * PE * (1+Growth)^10)/(1.135)^10 is not equal to $139.23. The only way to get the result to be $139.23 is by replacing PE with growth =15. CMIIW
I clicked the link. Then opened most of all the Spreadsheets, But None of them had Buy Zone section.
Please HELP
Same. Couldn’t find the doc either
Intrinsic Value Formula 4:30
the link to the spreadsheet is not working? Great simple video
Great video thx. In my opinion you should reduce the required rate of return on your example by 3% because the dividend payout ration is round 50%.
I'm following the channel and using the spreadsheet. Great work Hamish. All these numbers are starting to make sense.
so great to hear Eli!
I don't see the calculation tabs from the file in the description link?
The spreadsheet sheet didn't work. Any advise? I downloaded the 2019 10 year spreadsheet.
Inside of using EPS, why don't you use FCF (free cash flow) per share?
Hey Hamish, great video, I have two questions, is this formula work for financial companies? Also, what would be the best intrinsic value method, DCF this method and other methods? Thanks
Great video I was trying to use this worksheet for a negative EPS but was having some difficulties but this PRTY stock has a -5.57 EPS with a current stock price of .6611. There is lots of talk for a push up on value but we don’t know. It’s risky since chapter 11 is in sight but not chapter 7 yet so there is a chance of recovery
hey Hamish, this video is gold. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks Mister,
Made me realized lot of things to consider but at least i learn a lot from this video.
but in your first table, $66.83 is not your stock price, it is the price in which the stock was last sold at or bought at.
FANTASTIC WORK. tHANK YOU VERY MUCH
I am analysing Caplin point. Their growth is 38 % according to experts. I put the values in spreadsheet and the growth numbers are high. But the price of the stock is falling. What growth rate should be used.
Looks like you are not applying Rule of 72 by Phil Town in calculating GROWTH, an author of the book that you recommended in one of your previous video. What is the difference between your formula of growth calculation to that of Phil Town's
Quality video Hamish!
Thanks Tristan!
Your spreadsheet link shows the old spreadsheet, not the one you use in the video!
Hi all,
Is there a difference between the return on investment capital and the rate of return?
the buys zone calc is no longer on the spreadsheets of yours
Good work! I have been watching your video and series improved over time. Great to have investors like you teaching on CZcams.
Just curious, why wasn’t cash flow used? Normally you discount future cash flows instead of using this.
Hi, to calculate the future price, why not use free-cash-flow per share instead of eps; and p/fcf instead of p/e? Thanks!
Hi Hamish, thanks for the advise, this is very concise and appreciated. I can't find the 'BUY ZONE' tab in the spreadsheet, do you have a direct link to it? Thanks again and keep up the good work... :)
Use version 2.2 (old version)
Right now THO is hitting at $36 are you buying more at this point. or has there been change on in your thought?
How would you suggest we find Sales, EPS, equity and FCF without using quickfs? specifically for nzx and asx? thanks for great video
Hamish, thanks for being so forthcoming. Each time someone shares their understandings, as you have, we all take steps forward. MUCH APPRECIATED. Okay, I have a question/request. I'm interested in Prem Watsa's (Canadian Guru Investor that Phil Town speaks about) recent purchase of the Bank of Nova Scotia -- ticker BNS.TO. I've tried to evaluate it but am stumbling because of the reams of confusing financials connected to this institution's year end reports (and quarterlies, for that matter). I recognize that I should push this one aside into a "too hard" pile, however, I still want to understand how to evaluate banks. Can you help? Many thanks for your clarity and attention to detail.
Isn't just easier to estimate the intrinsic value just looking into the stock price chart? And thats it? Instead of guessing the value of factors like company growth, future PE and assuming the numbers like 50% and 15% based on what?
If you assume that your company has stable growing EP ratio for last 10 years, can't you just assume the same for the stock price?
how do you find the PE ratio for the past when yahoo finances pe ratio is for the last 12 months only
I don't see the spreadsheet could you kindly share?
Thanks for the video. I downloaded the spreadsheet, but it's not the same spreadsheet that you're using in your video.
Hi Hamish..not able to see the formula due to subtitles..pls can u share the same for future price..thank you.
Can you please resend the link to the Stock Analysis Spreadsheet thanks
I don’t understand the buy price part... I’m supposed to only buy stocks that are 50% cheaper than the fair value?? That seems like playing it too safe to ever buy a share.
is this the DCF valuation?
Excellent video. Thank you for making it available.
Hi Hamish, could you update the spreadsheet? The version 3 doesn't have the Buy zone calc tab. Also for MAINTENANCE CAPEX, do we use Net PPE value? Is there a single website where we could get all these data for each company?
hi, first of all really thanks for your free spreadsheet. However, i met some issues that what component would u consider as maintenance of capital expenditure. PPE, Intangibles and?? ( i am using 2020 version 3.0)
Hi Hamish, thanks for the informative video. In this video, the formula seems to be similar to Phil Town’s and doesnt appear like the Discounted future cash flow. Is that right? Which one is your preference? Thanks
hi cannot see the buy calculate tab ?? only 4 tabs open in spreadsheet
Are you using revenue growth rate or equity growth rate?
How does this formula take into account how much cash or debt a company has?
Hi Hamish, the spreadsheet doesn't seem to be up to date. for example the buy zone calc is not on there, and a couple of others as well.
Holy shit this spreadsheet is insane.