Colorado 2050 Climate Forecast
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- Check out this detailed forecast for Colorado, with info on many locations requested by our viewers.
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I, a midwesterner, lived in Steamboat 06-09. Summers were three months. Winter was 7. spring and fall were each 1. Looks like that will change to more of a 3/3/3/3. Great, except their trees are 50%+ conifer. Back then, I was seeing the lodgepole pine beetles turn huge forest into collections of matchsticks. Beetles were controlled by 2 things, #1, the extremely deep winter which didn't happen for a few years. And # 2, Fire. If there are no more deep winters w/ extended -20F months, Nature has no choice but option #2.
The tree death from those beetles has been terrifying to behold. I have had the good fortune to regularly visit Yosemite over the past 15 years. I don't think people who haven't seen it over time have any idea how much the pine forests have receded, and the completely different landscapes that have replaced them. And without the tree cover it gets so much hotter and drier, just a completely changed environment. There's a lot of interesting forestry work I've been reading about in Oregon and Washington, they're trying to shift the forest composition in time to save more of it. I haven't read about that type of active land management in Colorado, but I sure hope it's going on and I just didn't happen to come across it.
@@AmericanResiliency Do you have any idea what sort of ecology might be replacing the lodgepole pines? Might we be seeing more pinyon juniper scrubland akin to what you'd see around Santa Fe today?
I'd need to do more research to give a confident answer, but just chatting, I wouldn't be surprised. In the Sierras in California, which have heated up more so far, that lower range ecosystem is exactly what has crept up the mountains as the pines have died and gone into retreat.
@@AmericanResiliency That is interesting. As much as I'll miss the pines, from a human standpoint I feel like that there's a much more interesting productive capacity to Pinyon-Juniper ecologies. I'll be interested to see how it develops going forward.
One other thought I had: you mention that there's projected to be much less snow precipitation on the western slopes, which obviously has pretty important implications for water access in the SW US. Since the projections are that overall precipitation remains constant, I wonder if there is any viability to anthropogenic water capture and storage?
Obviously there are the large scale damming and irrigation projects, but I wonder how much you could replicate the stable runoff through widespread adoption of small-scale rain-harvesting aimed at charging mountain springs and water tables, which could prevent surface evaporation and maybe even result in a net water gain for the region.
I'm not familiar enough with mountain hydrology or geology to know whether that would be technically feasible, and even if it was, it would probably be very difficult politically to make a case for trying to build a reserve of water when the lower part of the Colorado watershed is already starting to get thirsty. Still it seems important that we start seriously considering ways to substitute the water-retention capacities of snow-pack. Its either that or we start sharpening our water knives. Personally I'm not super keen on that second option...
I think small scale rainwater work is a part of the solution, but we have to look at the big issue: the serious drought-related water shortages in the southwest. This is most seriously going to impact Nevada, California, and Arizona, and it's going to whomp them really hard. The central valley in CA is already draining the groundwater to the point where hydrostatic pressure is collapsing wells. I've read some speculation that we may reach a point where nationwide hydrological infrastructure will be worth the cost-benefit analysis. The Great Lakes region has a huge amount of freshwater, and we honestly could use infrastructure that would help get more of it out of here.
This would be a really big project, but the southwest has already done big hydrology infrastructure. The CAP canal is huge, it's the kind of scale that would need to be utilized.
If we are able to craft a water solution that scales to state-level thirst, I think we'll be more able to get momentum behind smaller-scale, local recharge projects. It's very hard to do that crucial community-scale work when people are struggling to meet their basic needs.
Phenomenal work! I’ve been looking for this type of information for a long time. Thank you for putting it out there!
Thank you for your kind words!
Finally, some good news for my beautiful Colorado! How can I get the power generation issue in front of my state lawmakers?
I would most recommend taking action at the city and/or county level! The state level response is pretty decent in Colorado but there's an organized national movement to pass city and county level legislation restricting private solar installation. You can imagine, some utility companies want a lot of restrictions in favor of their financial interests. Restrictive local legislation is being used to undermine the energy transition and protect fossil fuel companies.
I would see what's going on in your area- cities and counties can pass laws that protect our rights to put in home solar (and wind!). Linn County in Iowa has great model legislation. Here's the website where you could get in touch with the folks organizing that: linncounty.energydistrict.org/. The gentleman I met in charge of this effort is a real dynamo.
Please do Arizona!
Sure thing! I'll get it on the calendar for December 10.