Next five stages of war in Ukraine to secure peace in the region
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- čas přidán 24. 02. 2023
- Full scale war in Ukraine is entering its' second year. Everyone wants to end this as soon as possible. But unfortunately such massive military conflicts don't simply finish that easy.
So let's think what has to happen in order to end this unjustified war and secure peace in the region for generations to come. Here are five stages I think that make sense:
1) Ukraine takes back Donbas and Crimea;
2) Moldova restores its control over Transnistria;
3) Lukashenko’s regime is overthrown in Belarus;
4) Kaliningrad oblast becomes international zone;
5) Russia dissolves into several nation states.
Be friendly:
/ orestzub
/ zuborest
/ orest-zub-87845b11
Thank you for your clear exposition, Orest. Totally agree with your five points. СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ 🇺🇦
Great history lesson. Stay safe 🇨🇦🇺🇦
Don't forget Georgia and other countries being oppressed by Putin. You have a group of Russian and Belarus soldiers fighting for Ukraine hoping to help their own peoples as well. Ukraine will need to help them to retake their own countries back for their own democracies.
Very interesting Orest
Interesting. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Oreste.
Orest thanks for ur clear & concise presentation of the situation in Ukraine..very good
From my study of the region & its history , it's my belief the Russian invasion of Ukraine will define Europe & its geo - political direction for the balance of the 21STCentury...
This event will come to be seen as as seminal event in the History of Europe , as important & significant as WW2.
The Ukrainian War Of Independence ( for which you & your country are fighting ) will be closely studied long after we are gone...your fight for your independence is even affecting defence policy here in Australia..but that is a discussion for another time !
Slava Ukraini!
❤️🇺🇦❤️🇺🇸❤️🇺🇦❤️
Excellent presentation. May it all be so.
Best 👍💯
Slava Ukraine!
Hi Pakistani
🇷🇺💪💪
Drop a bunker buster on the train lines are and it will burrow into the ground and when it explodes it will create a crater damaging the rails and make it difficult to repair. Do the same with the airport lanes.
Interesting 👍
🇮🇳❤️🇺🇦
Wear is Marta ... great wife.
O my God......
Balkinisation of the Russian Federation is necessary for the regional and global peace and prosperity. Because if Russia remains one country then it would use its millitary might against its neighbors like Republic of Georgia, Republic of Fineland and the Baltic Republics. Russia wants to become another expansionist powers like China. My country already have one such power in its neighbor(i.e., China, i belong from Republic of India). Both Russia and China are like big bellies. The way Russia threatens its neighbors, in the same way China threatens its neighbor like Mongolia, Taiwan, Philippines, Japan, my country is lucky that it have a strong millitary forces (which has the 4th strongest Army in the world) thats why China have fears and before China attacks my country they would think millions of times and my country is a nuclear power.
But countries like Mongolia, Philippines and Taiwan are not that much lucky.
Either Russia needs a new regime which should be a democratic regime where the election should be transparent and fair so that people csn choose their right leader who would lead their country( Russia) in the right direction or Russia needs Balkinisation. Similarly Belarus needs a new democratic regime like Russia.
I heard about many cases where The Central Government of Russia takes resources from the areas like Siberia, Yakutia, Kola, and a lot of regions and directly send to Moscow, in return the people of those regions dont get proper support from the government. Thats why those peoples wants their own seperate nation. Those peoples have their own cultures, traditions and identify which are different from the mainstream Russians. In Institutions like Army, the peoples or army personals of mainstream Russia discriminate and create difference with themselves and the army personals who belongs from the regions like Yakutia, Siberia, Chechnya the Russsian government failed to stop this discrimination, many cases and videos of such discrimination came out from The Ukraine Crises. In Indian Army, their are personals from across the country and also from extreme states like the North-East Indian states(also called the Seven Sisters States of India). In the Army their are not a single cases of Discrimination like the Russian Army all the Army personnel treat themselves equally and see themselves as a family of one country and also share their cultures, foods and also celebrates their cultures with each other.
Lastly Ukraine needs to remember the case of 2014, where the Central government of Ukraine was unstable. When a country's government is stable and properly functional then only its internal and external securities can be ensured otherwise it would be a unsecured country and its neighboring/enemy country would take the advantage of the situation and will try to annexe lands of its unstablecountry. Like in the case if Ukraine, the central government was unstable, Russia took the advantage and annexed Cremea. Their were no proper governence of Ukraine on Cremea in 2014. I have seen many videos where the Ukranian Flag were removed from the main government building in the city of Sevastopol from where Cremea were governed. The Ukrainian Flag were also removed from the regional millitary buildings and the Russian flag were histed infront of the Ukranian Armed forces.
Russia and China both the bullies need Balkinisation as Clhina also annexed many lands like Tibet and Tibet use to be a proper country before 1950s.
And then alarm start ringing and you realize it is 6:00
Great explanation. You're smart aside from being handsome and good body shape guy. You can bring home a crown of Mister World to Ukraine.
❤️🌟🇺🇲🇺🇦
And Georgia needs to regain it’s occupied territory as well and get rid of the oligarch puppet government. Слава України! 🌻🇺🇦🇺🇸
I am going to same something unpopular: how can you force the citizens of Kaliningrad to split from Russia, if most of them (80%) self identify as Russians? What if they don't agree with your idea, are you gonna deport them or introduce a dictatorship there?
Honestly, whole this idea about dreaming how to split other countries and stirr separatist movements in other countries sounds like Kremlin rethoric, because let me remind you that Russia was the one who created small separatist countries like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transinistria to weaken its neighbors... Let's not forget that separatists in Transinistria were basically aided by Ukraine at that time, which later turned against Ukraine because Russia did the same against Ukraine by creating fake republics in Donetsk and Lugansk.
To use the same tactics like Kremlin, would be basically admitting that their actions were legitimate. I think if Tatarstan or other republics would like to separate it should be only according to the decision of its citizens, and not "stimulated" from outside. Otherwise, Russian nationalists would use that thing to push the "national humiliation" narrative and again rage new wars.
I feel it's naive to think that "few smaller Russias are less dangerous than one big Russia", because maybe it would not affect Ukraine (since you wouldn't border with most of these small republics) but they would still represent a threat for Central Asian countries. Frankly, in most of rural areas of Russia, there's no awareness about democracy, let alone a developed civic society. To expect that these "new republics" will somehow be harmless small states is a misconception. They would quickly become small authocratic dictatorships in the middle of Asia and perhaps rage wars against Kazahstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia or among themselves. You can use Yugoslavia and Serbia as example. Yugoslavia was a dictatorship which eventually split, but some of these new states are still hybrid regimes which are threating its neighbors or dreaming about becoming independent or unify with Serbia. It's because Western countries didn't do their job well and they asked just Milosevic for accountability, while all his regime puppets remained basically untouched.
On the other hand, this "proposal" to split Russia by force is in contradiction with another Ukrainian proposal (Russia should pay for the financial damages of war).
Now, it sounds to me that if you reduce Russia to only Moscow, how can you expect that they will be financially capable to pay war reparations? They need resources to be financially sustainable to pay war reparations, don't you agree?
I think we shouldn't focus on the form (unified Russia or small republics) but on supstance: common Russians needs to understand waging war against neghbors is wrong, they have a personal responsability for this and splitting/annexing other countries is immoral.
My proposal for future Russia would be:
- eliminate FSB as institution
- publish most of state archives dossiers which are currently secret
- fire all journalists on state TV First channel
- Free elections & media
- Release political dissidents
- cooperation with Hague international court
- all officials who were part of government in Soviet Union and Putin Russia should be banned from participation on elections
- all school children in Russia should visit a decent museum about War in Ukraine & perhaps visit regions of Ukraine which were affected by war
- War reparations to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova
- return of Crimea, Donbas and other occupied territories to Ukraine
- restore core autonomies to autonomous regions inside Russia
- Kaliningrad oblast stays in Russia, joins Schengen (similar to Northern Ireland) to increase integration with Europe, but as demilitiarized and denuclearized zone.
I agree with you. Mostly. However nothing positive won't happen in russia in a long time.
@@pacifist9805 That's the price they need to pay for being silent or (even worse) supporting a crazy man. On the other hand we shouldn't repeat the same mistake which was done in the last 30 years when many in the West were saying "Yeltsin or Putin autocracy can be tolerated because they are lesser evil compared to Soviet Union". By applying this logic, we got a "new Soviet Union 2.0" again. I'm afraid that we might get rid of Putin, but not by the mentality (or government structure) which creates these dictators. Yeltsin was elected as democrat in 1990, but later sent tanks on parliament & elected Putin as successor. You can take Germany as example too: German emperor was kicked out in 1918, but later Germany created a new "emperor" by chosing H. as leader. It's because UK, USA or France dealed with the leader (the emperor of Germany), but not with the source of problem (German militaristic mentality at that time). Konrad Adenauer (first prime minister of Western Germany) identified the problem of Germany in the influence of Prussian militarism & nationalism. Once when Germany army was basically reduced to minimal terms and there was a wide denazifaction process (like trials in Nurnberg), Germany became a stable democracy.In case of Russia FSB, Russian Orthodox Church & Army are the three pillars of power which push imperialist agenda since Imperial Russia.
@@liviodefranza Very good comment but unfortunately youtube hid it.
I've heard that Russia has invented a "special" referendum. Think they follow that with forced migration.
I’ve seen pictures of young adult travelers from Russia to currently RussiaZ occupied territories in Ukraine. They pose for instagram pictures of burnt out and destroyed buildings, and then post them on social media… like tourists. Under your proposed solution how will people like that understand that this invasion was wrong. Serious question.
Of course, there are other young adults in Russia who know the invasion was wrong and they understand it. Perhaps giving them a louder voice via free media and free elections will help them educate the rest.
i know you are a nice guy and do much humanitarian work but when Ukrainians talk about taking back Crimea this seems foolish to me, but it's still your business and Russia's. When you start talking about other countries like Moldova, that is their business and your ideology threatens the world with expansion of the war. The further views you express don't preserve peace but validate Putin's "paranoia". Unfortunately my president probably loves everything you said. Still glad for your viewpoints and your updates.
I’m heading to Odessa towards the end of March. Call me crazy.
I will go to Lviv, ahahaha. I will enter from Moldova. You?
Going to Lviv first. Then Odessa. That’s the plan Stan.
I am also planning to go to Lviv and Odesa in April . I was there just two months before the invasion and I am ready to go and return again
You crazy! 😜
I personally hope kaliningrad goes to poland, and transnistria belongs to ukraine.
Transnistria is part of Moldovia occupied by russia. UN has tried to get russians out couple of decades. Russia agreed to withdraw troops but hasn't done it.
@@pacifist9805 this is true but we all know, considering current weakness in moldovan government and the past resignation of the female leader, that it will be inept in any sort of action to be able to take Transnistria either if Russia continues to refuse to withdraw troops and instead increases troops stationed there. This land will belong to ukraine, whether or not russia likes it because Ukraine's legionnaires equipped with HIMARs can easily open an opportunistic front there. They held off the orcs in mykolaiv, they can for sure do it beyond borders if necessary as well.
@@siddarthbhagirath5883 Ukraine has no interest to annex regions that belong to other countries.
You need to take out the gas stations in Russia.
and to begin with, to try to preserve the territory you now hold, with the Ukrainian attack on Transnistria because of the ammunition warehouse located there, Ukraine is in danger of losing Odessa... the American army located in Romania will not enter into a direct conflict with the Russian army over Odessa because they will not risk a nuclear war in which there is no winner... make peace and save you people.. Greetings from Serbia
There can be no peace with Putin
@Snicktx After Putin comes the hardliners or Russian versions of the neocons. Better to negotiate with Putin.
@@mselender then there will be no negotiations.
Ukraine can make use of that large weapon storehouse.
Sounds like a plan! It could take some time to accomplish though.
Break up of Russia would be best for all. Only nutty Z's would cry about that.
What you are advocating is a World War III that will go nuclear. Kalinigrad, Crimea and the Donbas are ethnically Russian. Crimea was never really Ukrainian. It was part of the Ottoman empire before it became Russian. Krushchev and Brezhnev were from Donbas. Your argument for breaking up the Russian Federation along ethnic lines can easily be applied to Ukraine. The Transcarpathian region was part of Hungary prior to WW II. Western Ukraine was part of Poland. A large area east of the Dneiper was part of Tzarist Russia. The argument for territorial integrity is valid only if Ukraine respects he rights of minorities. Something it has not been doing. That is what the Minsk agreement was about. This is essentially a war for territories that are not ethnically Ukrainian. Is it worth it?
He doesn't mean that other countries should break up russia. His theory is that change is going to happen from within. I have heard many others theorizing the same. Russians are so patriotic that I don't think so.
@@pacifist9805 And they'll all have nukes.
Main argument is Russia has been invading and killing for centuries. They must be stopped.
So with that said Orest how soon can we expect Marta and you to come and settle in Canada. Nice plan but it will take generations to come true? You better come soon rather than later you both have a life to live. If you stay you will be very old when the haggling is over what to do with them Russians. In Canada you can have a good life if you want it. Bye Bye be safe and well!!!
Glory to Ukraine