@richard simms: Friedman's knowledge on the topic is very shallow. He basically repeats the narratives from the US news media. I think he should find a different topic to be an expert in.
Very Putin like. drives wars and conflict but never will be o the front lines. Russians are neo-cons. They never met a war they didn't like. Never met a dictator they didn't like.
@@joey3291 True. His saying Russia "had to invade Ukraine" is ridiculous and actually Putin did see Biden as stupid and weak. Trump wasn't perfect but he was strong and that keeps people in line. Putin would not have gone in if Trump was still President and I'm pretty sure Putin regrets doing so now. It wasn't worth it and only made Russia's demographic problems even worse.
George Friedman is the author of "The Coming War With Japan" in 1991, not 1931. His description of China makes me feel that his main data source about China is US main stream media and his knowledge about China's history is pretty rudimentary. I encourage people to seek Ambassador Chas Freeman's lectures on CZcams
Yep, the same goes for Russia: unfortunately Dr.Friedman does know nothing about the Russian army. Back in the Soviet times, Sergeants used to be just conscripts, but: 1. it has changed, today Russians have professional sergeants who are well paid for doing their job. They can act as quite effective trainers 2. it was okay even as it was (for instance, in the Israeli army sergeants are conscripts as well, and we are perfectly okay with it - Dr.Friedman's problem is that he believes any non-western model is inferior to the Western one) 3. in the Soviet/Russian army the next rank after sergeant is not lieutenant. It's second lieutenant, and this rank is considered not officer in Russia (as well as in Israel), but a professional soldier. So from here I don't even want to argue, because it's pointless - Dr.Friedman lacks the basic knowledge. By the way, fresh lieutenants in Russia have at least five years of extensive military training. But this fact doesn't make them better than, say, fresh Israeli officers (who are almost always former conscripts, but even taking their two to three years of active service into account - judging by numbers only, Russian officers are better trained, but in reality it's not necessarily works this way)
Thanks for providing a counterpoint to Dr. Friedman. While he makes interesting observations, both Friedman and Zeihan extrapolate to extremes that are not properly substantiated
the last 9 months of war in the Ukraine clearly shows Russian training (and army) is substandard. Calling somebody an NCO or officer, or having them serve 5 years in the army, does not matter, they don't know what they are doing.
@@TheKopalhem The proof is in the pudding. Ukraine forces have been trained by US, Uk and Canadian military since 2014 and have re-organized from their old Soviet model to a NATO structure organizationally and doctrinally. Some Ukraine special operations groups are certified interoperable with NATO forces. They have out fought the Russians inflicting substantial casualties and completely destroying numerous units. Having a competent NCO corps to execute the commander's intent without active supervision is a distinct advantage. When I served in the 82nd Airborne, Fireteams (4-5 men) leaders had 3-5 years experience; squadleaders (10-12 men) had 6-10 years experience; and platoon sergeants ( 40 plus men) had 12-15 years experience; numerous training schools and often had served in Rangers, Special Operations, Armor, etc. They could easily run a platoon tactically in lieu of an officer who they were in essence training.
THE USA is treating their own people good, but don't do so internationally (exception: western countries). Look at the endless wars or the torturing of innocent people. While Bush gave the decision to torture people (like rape with a wooden stick, electroshocks to the balls etc.) in order to get (wrong) information (also muslim americans), he directly lied to the face of the american people. Such a scumbag.
Lmao, that's such a wrong reading of the situation. look at history, America has been an insecure nation since its founding. Every generation has thought it was the last of American dominance. It's nowhere near the end. People are just uneducated and hopeful for the empire's fall. Hoping for a fall is completely useless with the present situation. The world's waters are almost completely under US control. Or can it be controlled within days... America has an enormous supply of resources... the shale revolution has enabled America to be energy self sufficient... and if necessary, can become an even bigger exporter. America has the best farmland, best internal water network, best defensive situation... People need to read a book or two
@@fuzzyspackage There are many reasons for many people to hate the USA. For the most part, the USA openly conceives and implements plans against other countries. USA will be punished sooner or later
I don't always agree with Friedman, but he hit the nail on the head in this talk. In geostrategic terms, Russia and China are facing enormous challenges. The preponderance of Western angst about their "alliance" is overblown, at the least.
If China and Russia don’t like each other as much as he says, their alliance says so much about how they both feel towards the US- and it doesn’t end with them. “I never liked the Brits too much but hey, they’re ours” 🤦🏼♂️ This little desk soldier is everything that is wrong with America. He has as little care for the average American as he does for a Russian or Chinese.
@@TAS_CNX 34 trillion debt and rising. Look at the army of homeless people in the streets of San Francisco, Seattle, LA et cetera. Look at the southern border. Look at the behaviour of the US president.
I understand how George Friedman uses rational thinking in predicting how the adversaries would act in the near future. However, rational thinking is not used by many adversaries in history. That is why we have Pearl Harbor attack and the Barbarossa invasion. If you looked back at the beginning of the Pacific war, Japan had no chance in winning a war with the US. It lacked the supplies to war. Its army was tie down in China. Its military productivity was not even half of that of the US. Geographically Japan is an island and that means US can bomb her and she got nowhere to hide. At the same time, US is an ocean away and Japan could not invade the US with significant force. In spite of all these, Pearl Harbor happened. Therefore, how do you explain that? Often, when a ruler has no way out of the domestic problems, war is a good way out since war could unite the whole country for a single purpose. Whether war could solve domestic problems is of no concern to anyone.
my concern is american arrogance. its the worst thing immaginable for staying strong. as an aussie i fully support usa but NEVER NEVER EVER GET COCKY. i worry. china is insidious like no other, even tho i feel george knows his subject far more than i.
Professional military personnel in the US Armed forces know not to be (overly) cocky. There is always cause for concern and worry. But at the same time, they are the best trained and equipped fighting force in the history of the world. They know that if everyone does their job, we have a high probability of success. Now, this does not carry over to our politicians, the majority of which are idiots in general and only care about their personal career and accumulation of wealth and power. That’s why I rarely watch press conferences by politicians concerning military issues. I prefer to listen to the press conferences directly from the military, when possible.
Japan had no understanding of US industrial capacity. They went to Pearl to sink our carriers and they weren’t there. Dec 7 was a failure in practical terms
@@gregrar995 We Americans fully support Australia and are proud to do so. It isn't arrogance my good aussie friend, it's reality. And that's not arrogance, it is embracing reality. China owes every scrap of its progress to the U.S. and always has. Without the Order (see Bretton Woods, shipping, U.S. Navy) and access to American markets, China is left holding it's d1ck in its tweezers. Ninety percent of its navy is essentially canoes -- they can't sail more than perhaps a thousand miles from their shore in a straight, slow line. They have no blue water navy. They have a big army. It can't go anywhere if we decide to make it stay home. They don't know how to operate an air bridge. We've already covered their navy. These guys are clowns. Every single thing about their strategy that they've "thought out" over the last 40 years has been shown since the invasion of Ukraine to be utterly in error. You need to listen to some Peter Zeihan, another sharp geopolitical strategist who if I'm not mistaken mentored under George Friedman for a period of time. You'll see that Peter's data is much more comprehensive, and he in fact makes a convincing argument that China will not even exist as we now know it in ten years. I think he's right. Here's a link to one of his presentations from late this summer (winter for you :) ): czcams.com/video/UA-jOLF2T4c/video.html
My thoughts exactly, also Japan prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor imported more than 80 % of its oil from the U.S. You should never use common sense on how an adversary will act. You simply prepare as if the worse case scenario is going to happen with a deep knowledge and understanding of history.
The overwhelming superiority in weapons manufacturing was the critical factor in determining the success of the US in WW2. The same might happen the other way around in the event of war between China and the US. This is the overlooked aspect that no one seems to be talking about and a key reason this war should never happen.
Exactly, In fact that’s the reason we won, not that our equipment was better but by the end of the war we out produced both Germany and Japan by a factor of 10 or so in aircraft, tanks and ships.
@@notanymore9471 Well, US out-produced Germany and Japan because US could produce at a safe place. Remember US is on an isolated continent where is too far for WWII military technology to reach. But it is certainly not the case in the next major war.
I don't disagree but I don't think the next war will depend on productive advantage as much as WW2. I beleive this will be a war won, lost, or stalemate in the first year, thus the weapons on hand, expeneice and technology will play a larger war.
Where's the pride ? More than Half the American people see ourselves as a failure. I don't see where the pride is. Honestly, I think we need alittle pride to avoid the complete division of the country. Last time this happened, the civil war broke out.
If Russia and China are enemies and unable to cooperate, then why is China financially supporting Russia currently. If Russia and China are unable to cooperate then what happened in the Korean War? Millions of Chinese fought on the side of North Korea using Russian weapons and Russian pilots flew Migs for North Korea fighting together to kill Americans in Korean war. The same thing happened in the Vietnam war, the Chinese and Russians cooperated to kill Americans in Vietnam.
Not sure what he is saying or you are saying by context of gibberish, but welcome to ruxia, province of xhina. But it looks like ccp will take bites out of manchuria, since it no longer dares to start with taiwan❤
@@mao_tse_tung1921 What are you even saying? When his comment starts with; "If Torror-Rushistan and West-Taiwan" i'm sorry does he even need to continue before a gibberish evaluation is given? Get triggered all you like, East-Taiwan are not the expansionist's you claim them to be, let others do the thinking for you.
All accurate information. However the negatives are omitted. This isn't some easy win. To believe it is an easy win is foolish. Our enemies are real threats.
Its a question of what kind of threat they pose, and what winning will look like. In Ukraine, this appears to be far from over. I don't expect an easy peace. There might be decades of conflicts flaring up across that region over the next few decades. The Russian culture and mentality is far removed from what we'd expect. that willingness to take losses and continue forward over the long term. China is the real question...How will they reshape the east, and what will it mean for our geopolitical goals? Here's a win from my perspective: The decline of authoritarian states, and the overall culture and mindset which breeds that sort of mindset. I'd call that a win if we can accomplish it within this century. plenty of real threats out there. Expect the unexpected...it rarely plays out like we imagine.
“It’s hard to imagine where do they collaborate” - Russia and China literally have a land border. It’s also not only about Russia and China anymore either. Look at Saudi Arabia for example. Or India. Or even Turkey. There is a lot more competition to US then this guy thinks and most of them don’t want USD being a go to currency for global trade. Cuz noone wants inflation in their countries after US decides to print more money. Or their assets vanished if US doesn’t like what they do
At the same time, china and russia have spoken support for each others endeavor and a bew pipepline between russia and china is helping russia negate the effects of the sanctions
Mr. Friedman, do not forget about Poland; yeah, a Bush-ism for sure, but Ukraine has Poland at its back. Much, much more so than Germany. Poland is the logistical hub, back-stage for many (perhaps even most) of the military preparations and the refuge for the vulnerable - housing over 2,000,000+ refugees, adjusting its law on the fly to provide for subsidized housing, free healthcare and education for war refugees. It provided a large %age of its own tanks and artillery, that helped to reconstitute entire battalions facing the invading Russian forces. Continue to reinforce that message during your speaking tours.
Capitalism versus Communism is front and center on the world stage. Empower the United Nations and the International Criminal Court. Russia will not lose.
Bruh, Russia hasn't been communist for over three decades. What the fuck are you smoking? And Russia has already lost. They have irreparably harmed their geostrategic position with this war.
LMFAO They cut the part out where he said we are not going to leave those 4nano meter fabs intact for china to walk right inside and start it up again.
I went to Graduate School with many many Indian exchange students, I truly enjoyed their friendship and great social events; yes America should come together with India, sincerely be friends since we got so many Indian-Americans living in the USA who were born and love their Homeland---India. India's real friend is America.....
First try to set yourself free from western lies and propaganda. Then study about the US decline which is near. czcams.com/video/jDKzj71UCMY/video.html
Better say America should vassalize India, because India is like a prostitute. A swing state, in so called "next superpower" that behaves like a burning super yacht awaiting its turn to sink.
I question Friedman's explanation of the Great Depression. He seems to overemphasize post-WWI US exports to Europe while underestimating the immensity of US domestic commerce. The automobile, radio, and aviation were just a few of of the new technologies fueling growth.The Twenties were called 'Roaring' for a reason. It seems obvious that over-leveraging by our financial sector was inevitably bound to collapse credit, not a dearth of international trade. Cascading effects included the calling in of loans by the US in Germany in 1929, which led to the ruin of Weimar and the rise of Hitler (and not the infamous 1923 German hyperinflation).
Great analysis. Thank you for sharing. Professor. As a Chinese, I agree with 100%. Many people in china are blinded by the GDP numbers, and try to ignore some cold fact. We need to be more pragmatic.
Iraq like Lybia like Syria did not succeedon going on to a gold standard. Russia and China and the BRICS nations are steps closer to going on a gold standard. America will take china out? Take Russia out like the Americans did to Iraq, Syria Lybia?
@@NadeemAhmed-nv2br the federal reserve is fighting for the survival of the US dollar. .... If the faith of the US dollar falls or crumbles ..... Thanks to these rogue countries.... Means there is no one left to support the dollar and to buy the US treasuries. Hence even more money printing. The real war is where he you support the US dollar or not.
US wasn’t half of British manufactured exports in 1900, let alone half of the globe’s lol. For a guy as renowned as this I expect more than amateur hour.
@@carlosnorris352 Being the largest economy =/= being the largest exporter of manufactured goods. Trade with other countries made up a tiny percentage of the US economy back then, whereas for Britain it was already north of 40%. Also in terms of overall manufacturing output, they were roughly tied in 1890. By 1900 that split was 23.6% (of global manufacturing) for the US, 18.5% for the UK.
@@Cotswolds1913 are you calling the movement of finished products or raw materials from Leeds or Sheffield to India and Hong Kong “exports” for that period? Cause here in US nothing moving from Wyoming to Texas would qualify as such.
@@carlosnorris352 That is correct, though frankly it doesn’t matter if you keep or remove exports to India, the result is the same, Britain as the world’s leading industrial exporter in 1900, and US making 23% of global manufactured products. Some of these geopolitics guys really do get to telling a load of nonsense on economic history, something I’ve noticed about Zeihan too, even though I really like Zeihan.
For me, my family, and the whole world, especially me: my adorable Jesus, may our feet journey together, may our hands gather in unity, may our hearts beat in unison, may our hearts beat in unison, may our souls be in harmony, may our thoughts be as one, may our ears listen to the silence together, may our glances profoundly penetrate each other, may our lips pray together to gain mercy from the Eternal Father.Amen❤
Y’all are hatin on this guy but I don’t see any of you all spittin important historical facts that most people educated in history know soooo maybe give this guy a break for spittin facts and leaving his emotions at the door?! 😂
@@Americanpatriot-zo2tk Just the facts bro. We didn't become #1 by shielding our manufacturers from superior products. We did just buy a Ford Explorer that we are also very happy with, (since it apparently concerns you, lol) But we'll check back in ten years, lol. Glad to be getting rid of our Jeep. (From 2006, when they were still an American company.)
@@Roonasaur my dude, totally cool! I live in Louisville Kentucky that’s where they make the explore understand it is a decent vehicle. I also understand the Japanese make pretty solid Products. Here is my problem. By American brother he keeps other Americans in work but all agree with you if we want to be number one when direct number one products I liked your post and off a lot God bless you and your family and is always greetings from the state of Kentucky.
@@Americanpatriot-zo2tk : As they say, it is hard to climb up and it's even harder to stay on the top. US auto industry became too complacent and arrogant resulting in Japan sped passed them. They have not quite recovered from it. America no longer really owns these 3 auto companies. They built their cars in China. They sold more cars in China than in USA. Why would they leave China. They won't be going back to USA. It's simple math!
43 years ago, almost to the day I joined the all-volunteer Navy, now being a soon-to-be, YUPPY the first thing I thought was that so much of what is done is redundant. The second thing was how much waste there was, warehouses full of stuff that would never be used as it was in reserve. Third thing was the obnoxious amount of time spent teaching and beating it into your head that time was not money in the Navy, it was mistakes that cost you both time and money. The last thing I learned, and this was for sure, (as I was in several training deployments that involved hundreds of thousands of military personnel from all 4 branches of our armed forces) if you fight us, we will kick you're a--! As I studied and became a lower Petty Officer I came to understand the hard work and dedication these career guys had and the talent, it truly was not a job to them it is their calling in life, because of this I have never worried about war in my lifetime
I remember George Friedman, when he said after being provoked that Poland will be the new super power in Europe in order to undermine the influence of Germany and France because USA wants so. Here he dropped a massive fallacy that it is unacceptable for Russia to win in Ukraine because in that case Russia will be on NATO's eastern border. Well, NATO will be on Russia's eastern border in any case because Ukraine wants to join NATO. That was the whole point of Russia asking for Ukraine to be a neutral country for more than a decade.
@@buzz-es free countries choose their destiny. Alright, makes a bit of sense. What do they choose? What if its; “My destiny is to destroy you and your country.” Free countries can choose their destiny right? That fits the bill. Obviously, countries should have limits on what they choose depending on how harmful it can be to others. Just as how people have laws to govern them and punish those who kill people. Some common sense is in order here.
@@buzz-es I vomit a bit whenever I hear this. They choose their own destiny with a little push from the CIA, usually. How many coups around the world have they organized? Oh, but it's the US, so they always have the moral highground.
45:31 exactly, the US had an army the size of Hungary’s when Churchill was hoping for them to join WW2, it was never about how the war machine is churning along during peacetime, it’s about how it gets going in an actual war. And it’s not about how well it does starting out, but how it keeps going and developing as a longer war happens. If it gets stronger or weaker and burns out. The US rebuilt whatever they’d lose. Perhaps China could. But the us can rebuild more of the higher end stuff that really matters in a naval war
the US has finally woken up to making strategic parts (now in arizona) "chips" which are totally under-appreciated by politicians as they know nothing of electronics, - great speech I am in thailand we have a joke here "oh that missile is off to NY" - "ahh that ones off to shanghai as they pass over head". :-)
@EBAY STARS: USA treacherous acts are many and too long to explain. Essentially, USA tried to steal TSMC and Samsung. Taiwan didn't fight back, so were forced to move their factory to Arizona. Samsung fought back with the backing of Korea gov't. They are still fighting the USA. USA tried steal Huawei for their 5G technologies and patents. China stood up to USA's thievery. They finally released Huawei's FCO after almost 3 years of detention. . . ask Katherine Tai, US Trade Representative. BTW, USA stole Toshiba from Japan, Alstom from France, and Tik Tok from China. USA is the biggest thief in the world.
@@elliekwong3180 I will never get tired of you losers crying over the fact that the Taiwanese hate China and willingly moved production to the US to spite the Chinese. Your bitterness and lack of ability to recognize reality sustains me. Here's the reality: We didn't trick or intimidate the Taiwanese. They just really fucking hate China. All the polling data that comes out of Taiwan supports that, but you can't accept it because that contradicts your whole infantile "America is literally Satan" worldview.
@@elliekwong3180 Im 70 and I kkow all about the USA and its machinations, and a freind of mine (CH/TW) here in Thailand recently had dinner with TSMCs boss in BKK :-)
It seems to me that the U.S., and possibly the whole world, is in great moral decline. This, more than anything else, will be our undoing. “What does it matter if one gains the whole world, but loses one’s eternal soul?”
50 years ago was a 2nd Turning Awakening (Summer). Internally focused. Now is a 4th Turning Crisis (Winter). The reason Summer and Winter can be briefly confused with each other is what they have I'm common...extremes. But Rest Assured 1968 and 2020 are as different as night and day. As different as 100° Summer day and a -20° Winter Night. In summer things, institutions that we depend on for order in our lives function but we don't want them; in winter the same things and institutions DON'T function but we WANT and need them to.
@Jon Little "Always be wary of soothsayers with book deals." Still, He's speaking in very broad terms, in relation to generational ideals and culture over a period of time. Nothing so specific as your Santa clause or your "Great Bunny of Easter." That would be an awfully dull and predictable cycle, wouldn't it? IMO, the jury is still out regarding human behavior and generational cycles. Humans are a complex species on both the individual and the macro/meta level. Predictions on society as a whole have always been a dime a dozen...time will tell. 🍷
@@snickle1980 I guess. BUT nobody even reads anymore. Why would someone go to all the trouble of researching, writing and publishing a book anymore? I'm getting away from the the topic but I just think Neil Howe is unique in his motives and especially in the decades of research in which he unearths centuries (millenia actually) of generational history. He and Strauss discovered something, and accidentally at that, so I can see why it will take time and scrutiny to be accepted but read it some time. He's literally a modern oracle.
@@GenX1964 " I guess. BUT nobody even reads anymore." That's my favorite topic...Very few book readers remaining in my generation and even fewer from the one's who came afterwards. We don't recognize what we've lost just yet, in this transition to digital media...but we will in time... and I'm certain that there will come a day when we'll desire physical, unalterable media/information again. At the moment, people are still equating topics by anonymous blogs you can read online, with books written by experts in the field. The technology advance and the decline in American literacy has moved faster than our ability to adapt and change with the times. to complicate things further, our conversations down here in the comment sections of youtube videos are about to end in one form or another due to AI authorship. _My wall of text here could have EASILY been written by the GPT-3 AI._ Co-authorship with AI is the future of textual intercourse, and I'm none too pleased... _"Varus! Give me back my legions of readers!"_ 😁
People in ancient times, 12,000 years, understood. We just forgot for a while. Forgetting the cycle is THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE CYCLE! 😆 🤣 Ecclesiastes 3 King James Version of the Bible To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: 2 A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted; 3 A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up; 4 A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance; 5 A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing; 6 A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away; 7 A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak; 8 A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.
It's not appropriate for Mr. Friedman to imply that President Biden is stupid in this lecture at the US Naval Institute, since the President is the Commander in Chief over this US Navy. He's entitled to his opinions and had expressed this similar opinion in other videos, however, I just don't think it's right that he criticize Biden here in a federal building in front of US military who are technically serving under the President.
1. When did he do that? 2. It couldn’t be more appropriate. Trump was regularly dissed by members of his own administration. Biden is weak, not mentally all there, and aggressive and dictatorial. Pretending like the guy who gave the Taliban all our weapons and a kill list is even competent let alone astute is simply malicious
Holy shit this man is good! The only thing I find amiss is that I think Russia's war was not hard-wired until Putin took Crimea; otherwise Ukrainians would not start training under U.S. supervision, and Russia would not have been su pressured at all.
At 22:38 Mr. Friedman states that if you drive 30 miles west of Shanghai you will find astonishing poverty. I would suggest that Mr. Friedman take the opportunity to drive 150 miles northwest of New York City.
Agreed. Manhattan and rural New York or nothing alike... but the people that live in those places do so because they want to not because the are forced to.
@@captainalex157 I am living in China. No, rural China is a lot better than many 3rd world countries I have visited. Rural areas in Zhejiang and southern Jiangsu are basically no different from Japanese countryside.
I have been living in Shanghai for past 10+ years and I can say, categorically, that Mr. Friedman has never driven 30 miles west of Shanghai or he would not have made such an imbecilic statement. In fact, I have driven much more than 30 miles, west, north and south of Shanghai multiple times over the past decade and my experience is that those places, if rural, are comparable to Japanese countryside, and if urban, are modern, clean, polished and well run, even better than Japanese cities in some aspects, and I have travelled to a number of Japanese cities. This statement of Mr. Friedman reveals how little he actually knows about the real China. And the fact that he is so well received by the comments here is also very disturbing. Good democracy is built upon well informed citizens. Given what I have observed in the West, the foundation of Western democracy is becoming increasingly precarious, thanks no less to people like Mr. Friedman.
Even if Russia and China could help each other; one is being degraded as we speak; and the other is watching, thinking to itself what does the other really bring to the table if I confront the US.
@Justin McCarthy: So, have heard of something called "classified info"? Do you think Russia and China would advertise all the info. You don't suppose only USA knows how to classify confidential info. Russia and China partnership is a perfect fit. Russia has the military power and China has the economic power. China is the factory of the world. They can make practically everything. Recently, Putin and Xi had another meeting. Readout stated strong cooperation. In other words, they have each other's back. BTW, Russia is not losing the war in Ukraine. Look at the map!!! In contrast, USA spent 20 years fighting goat herders wearing sandals with no tanks, artilleries and planes.
@@elliekwong3180 Russia pretty obviously lacks military power. It is struggling with fighting a nation that has never been considered a major military power and a nation that would not be able to even remotely hold its own against a major NATO power like France, the UK, or Poland, let alone the United States. As for your whole "lOoK aT tHe MaP" argument, it is beyond idiotic. By your argument, if you looked at the map in, say, August of 1943, you would claim that Nazi Germany was still winning WWII because it occupied much of the Soviet Union. But at that point, the tide had long since turned against the Axis in both the Eastern and Western European theaters and in the Pacific. China is no longer the factory of the world. It isn't 2005 anymore. Companies are divesting from China and moving their industrial plant to places that have lower production costs like Thailand, India, and Vietnam. Many American companies are now reshoring to Mexico. And China can't make "practically anything". They can make quite a lot of the cheap and low-end, but if you want high-end products like aircraft parts of high-end semiconductors or advanced materials, you go elsewhere. Christ, the more you talk the more of an idiot you out yourself as. How old are you?
@@elliekwong3180 1) Russia has not won the war that was supposed to be a short efficient "Coup de Main" decapitating the Ukraine regime. And, has lost its standing and most capable units to date. This does not mean Russia may not win after weight of numbers comes to bear in very high cost war of attrition against what was a much smaller country. To be followed by a long term insurgency that may fail; but, will at least eat up a great deal of military bandwidth (nod to your comment about US experience in Afghanistan) limiting whatever assistance it could provide China militarily. Russia has also demonstrated that operationally, logistically and technologically it cannot maintain multi-domain combat. It is basically fighting as if it was WW1. 2) Both Russia and China are fundamentally regional "land powers" in which a great deal of military power is devoted to internal cohesion and security. Even now, Russia's sphere of influence in Central Asia is weakening. And, both militaries could be engaged thousands of miles apart without the ability to coordinate assistance. Neither has the ability to project significant conventional force far beyond their own borders. Does not mean they are weak, but their military power is not complimentary and dissipates quickly at distance beyond their own borders.. 3) China has manpower and needs no real assistance from Russia in terms of land forces and Russia has limited naval capability to assist China in the East. And, its air power has not shown that it has much to offer China. At best, Russia can be Chinas "oil and commodity" supplier if multi-thousand mile supply chains can be sustained and Russia can sustain production levels which are questionable given the exit of Western oil expertise. 5) China's role as manufacturer of the world is declining; is highly dependent on easily interdict able supply chains; and dependent economically on countries (West) buying its goods. China's viability is also dependent on imported oil and food, by sea, which can be interdicted far from China's shores. No doubt they have contingencies and plans to assist each other. But, where is China's assistance with Russia's invasion of Ukraine? China is buying Russian oil, at discount. If there were significant assumptions that Russia would be a great partner, I personally believe that Russia's performance has degraded those assumptions for China. China has vulnerabilities militarily and Russia as a partner does little to mitigate those issues. All the agreements, overt or covert, do not change those realities. To a certain extent both countries are complimentary in economic terms of commodities (Russia) and needs (China). This can play a role in terms of their balancing the economic power of the West and potentially creating an independent non-western dominated economic zone. But, Russia's markets cannot absorb China's productive output. And, both have similar problems in terms of declining and rapidly aging demographics.
I think China is realizing that its military would perform equally well against any western country. Sure....good for a few days until you start running out of ammunition and fuel and ships to transport those things.
This comment page is quite amusing. Almost half the people are like "this guy is a clown" and the other half are like "this guy is amazing!". They're probably both wrong, but even if Dr. Friedman isn't right about everything, he's probably worth listening to.
One of the best minds of our times. Truly impressive (including the questions put to the speaker). Autocracies are intrinsically weak because they make choices for their own people and force on them an allegiance which is then necessarily brittle. I never tire of listening to George Friedman.
Not necessarily. Every government has popularity with the people, whether elected or not. And in fact most autocracies have had the situation be that there's a large Cadre of people who manage and have loyalty and have loyalty with the people. This isn't really that different from the democracies. Though, democracies are more prone to instability with sometimes over-diffusion of power as well as often people voting in their self-interest at the expense of the broader society. The weakness of autocracies is regarding abuse to the point where it loses the loyalty of the population or the over-centralization of power. Remember that the most resilient states of all time started as autocracies and that the largest wars in human history were all fought primarily by autocracies.
George Friedman is the BEST of The Bests like the movie. 2nd I believe Ian Bremmer 3. Professor John Mearsheimer then only The Rolling Stones & Jimmy Hendrix
Real life isn't like HOI4. You can't send clueless masses of bodies into combat. The future of warfare is cheap, efficient, and deadly. So much so that, we will rethink the whole idea of solving conflicts through violence - as we are too interdependent and cooperative to hurt the other without hurting ourselves.
Human nature says otherwise. Every European politician openly admits they thought the sam thing and somehow are right back to 1914-1918 territorialism in Eastern Europe.
@Jon Little "always will be" huh. We got a Marshall Haig here? Gonna send a cavalry charge into machine guns, because, as you say, "numbers are everything"
@lombardo141: Clearly, you were not listen to this talk or were not reading/watching the mainstream news media. They mirror each other. Clearly, Friedman didn't do any homework, like Jeffrey Sachs.
@@elliekwong3180 This guy was in the trenches of geopolitics dealing face to face with decision makers whose decisions determined if you ate today or not. Also if he is making stuff up and was able to get a PHD!! Then that's on me.
Some predictions in the book The Next 100 Years I thought were trolling or misleading and others were serious predictions. I have 3 for some time now. 1) Russia's future is difficult and its struggles will be internal. It will lose influence in East and Central Asia. China will fill this vacuum, becoming Russia's main external threat. 2)Europe will seek to be more autonomous, and it has a great chance of succeeding. But social differences and difference in values will create two imperfect poles: western and eastern. And the eastern pole will, in practice, be militarily autonomous and proactive. 3)Continuing the American tradition of using former enemies against new enemies. The risk of a catastrophic fragmentation of Russia must be avoided at all costs. When the Russian-Chinese rivalry is well established, the US will balance the scales by supporting Russia politically and economically. Only 1 of the three forecasts is clearly good for the US. If Europe is more autonomous and feels less threatened by Russia then there is no reason to support the US in military actions on other continents. And the policy of instigating antagonisms does not work well and is the main reason for hatred of the USA.
@@donateloxr7824 I could be wrong, but predictions are only confirmed or invalidated in the future. Yes, the present is different, but what will change? I would be surprised if the status quo and alliances hold until the end of the century.
Bottom line...... China developed wat too fast along with a lot of other recently developing countries. The USA seems to have a "Grow up in a small town, Make you nest egg in The City, Retire back to your small town." Yes there are people that never return "Home" and that is why USA big city's grew. The suburbs are why the USA managed to beat the urbanization trap. A large yard has room for kids.
Before February this year, I wouldn't have believed Professor Friedman's assessment of China and Russia, and the United States, but now it seems very plausible.
Mr Friedman has failed to point out the more important issues at hand. Is he illuding us? Perhaps. Why doesn't he mention the Russians dumping American tbills in September 2019? And China following suit? And now the BRICS NATIONS? THESE ARE SERIOUS moves. They are putting America in a ticking time bomb.... 30 trillion dollar debt bomb ready to go off? The ride is over. America can no longer take from the rest of the world using fake monopoly money to buy all these things any more.....
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 people have been warning of American immanent financial collapse ever since Nixon abandoned the gold standard, and it hasn't happened. BTW: the Russian Economy is miniscule - smaller than Italy's.
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 Because, despite what you think, those moves don't matter. People like you have been claiming that BRICS is about to overthrow the liberal world order "any day now" since BRICS was founded and it hasn't happened. And, considering that the position of BRICS is more precarious now than it has ever been, that isn't likely to change. Btw, if you think America's national debt is a time bomb then you should probably take a look at China's and then compare it to their GDP.
@@earthjustice01 Funny. Think tanks and analysts have been doing the same (predicting the collapse) of China since the 90s (incidentally post-Tiananmen) and they're going on stronger than before today. Guess we'll see who blinks first ;)
@@NadeemAhmed-nv2br You're probably right. I think America will still be the most powerful player on the field by quite a large margin, though it won't be as dominant as it was at the end of the 20th century. Europe is facing its own demographic crisis and the EU hasn't been as fruitful as many, myself included, might have hoped. China has fucked itself in too many ways to name. Russia is, well, Russia.
@@gingerlicious3500 China is constantly growing and still has enormous Potential to grow. Of course, China does not have the capacity to dominate the world, but the world is likely moving fast to be more multipolar in the future
"Who cares about Taiwan?" I DO! I am a pasty white guy whose furthest trip west to Catalina island. But Taiwan has TMSC. I don't remember the Arab oil embargo of the early 70s, but do you see how OPEC was able to make life very, very difficult? TMSC makes HUGE amounts of silicone chips. Like your computer? Like your phone? Like the Internet? Like your car? So much of the world now runs on sophisticated electronics. If China takes out Taiwan, they can make life substantially difficult. Plus from there, they can threaten and disrupt our friends and allies in Korea and Japan. Taiwan is a big deal.
@@deesus1085 What's wrong with you? One Nazi to the power of four, who can barely handel the challenge of using a keyboad shows up and you think this is how true Europeans in general and we Germans in particular think about the U.S.? He's either an incurable Nazi or a Vladolf Putner- lover, probably both. Anyway, Gemans will never forget who saved their butts from beeing kicked by the Russians. Europe will never forget who saved them from Russia.
@@deesus1085 i think you have way more poor people in the us than we do in europe. most minimum wage poors her can live on one wage, your poors need two full time jobs to survive, thats worse than slavery.
question, without asking whether US has the ability to block the ports. let's say all ports are blocked, who will be out of stocks? considering the CN-US trade to china now, only gains some green paper cannot spend out, seems not the end of world.
The strait of malacca, where >75% of China’s energy imports (and food) pass through, would be blocked, not the ports themselves. Mass famine is what would happen.
16:27 This is a nuanced war choreographed by the Americans 17:49 The Chinese problem is a naval problem, they are boxed in by the South China Sea 40:59 Mandate of heaven (lmao) 42:24 We see ourselves in dire trouble
@@richarddietzen3137 sociopaths naturally gravitate towards positions of power, i don't expect people in the highest echelons of society to think like the average person
I'm not sure what reality Friedman lives in, but I would not classify the US invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan as a "Win". By that screwy logic Russians could also classify their past misadventure in Afghanistan, or their current one in Ukraine as a "Win". I would not, and I think it is dangerous to do so. We likewise have had some "military actions" ( not wars ) in places like Libya, Lebanon, Somalia, etc. that I would likewise not classify as "Wins". Then there are others that you might consider a "Win" by military metrics, but were loosing "hearts and minds" in the process, and very arguably were not in our best interest in the long run.
@@JohnDoe-oq2fx i agreee, but sometimes losing wars is a win. simply by leaving the enemy in a state of eternal self-crucifixion. afterall, where is afghanistan today?
1812 was a draw. The British didn't want to pursuit a long and drawn out war because they were fighting France. Only people who claim the US lost that war is Canada.
@@deesus1085 yeah I agree. afghanistan was a political lose not a military one. Since the death of the terrorist leader, that war was a political game used against the opposing party.
This speech sounds too simplistic, viewing through a prism distorting a much more complex reality of the world were many more many countries and actors play their role.
Prime example of arrogance and living in the past. Underestimating the enemy is the mistake Russia is learning with blood. Saying losing Taiwan doesn't matter shows he doesn't understand the significance of TSMC on global tech industry.
Hope is a strong word. I was hoping Mr Friedman would talk more about the not so obvious issues. Such as the World dumping American tbills in September 1019...... This action alone is an economic declaration war against America. I am surprised no mention of this declaration of war...... Very important. Sad he didn't mention it.
His knowledge about China is more than 20 years old.
chinese people know China
@@angelachanelhuang1651lol no they don’t, Chinese people know what the CCP want them to know
@@TAS_CNX plz keep think this way. dont change......
@@binhu4083 one year later, looks like Friedman was right.
This has aged like milk
6 months later the milk's gotten worse :D
Whether people agree with the speaker Dr Friedman or not, he sure is interesting.
@richard simms: Friedman's knowledge on the topic is very shallow. He basically repeats the narratives from the US news media. I think he should find a different topic to be an expert in.
@@elliekwong3180 It seems like he knows not much better than the audience.
Thanks for a very interesting talk,
Unique & Very interesting‼️
People like this guy drive war and conflict but never will be on the front lines.
Very Putin like. drives wars and conflict but never will be o the front lines.
Russians are neo-cons. They never met a war they didn't like. Never met a dictator they didn't like.
Simply because his mind is worth much more than a regular fellow can appreciate.
From the title looks like this guy is living in its own fantasy...
@@joey3291 True. His saying Russia "had to invade Ukraine" is ridiculous and actually Putin did see Biden as stupid and weak. Trump wasn't perfect but he was strong and that keeps people in line. Putin would not have gone in if Trump was still President and I'm pretty sure Putin regrets doing so now. It wasn't worth it and only made Russia's demographic problems even worse.
George Friedman is the author of "The Coming War With Japan" in 1991, not 1931. His description of China makes me feel that his main data source about China is US main stream media and his knowledge about China's history is pretty rudimentary. I encourage people to seek Ambassador Chas Freeman's lectures on CZcams
China is free to go to war. Usa has never wanted to go to war. If they want to try, do it. Stop whining to the wto you snowflakes.
Yep, the same goes for Russia: unfortunately Dr.Friedman does know nothing about the Russian army. Back in the Soviet times, Sergeants used to be just conscripts, but:
1. it has changed, today Russians have professional sergeants who are well paid for doing their job. They can act as quite effective trainers
2. it was okay even as it was (for instance, in the Israeli army sergeants are conscripts as well, and we are perfectly okay with it - Dr.Friedman's problem is that he believes any non-western model is inferior to the Western one)
3. in the Soviet/Russian army the next rank after sergeant is not lieutenant. It's second lieutenant, and this rank is considered not officer in Russia (as well as in Israel), but a professional soldier. So from here I don't even want to argue, because it's pointless - Dr.Friedman lacks the basic knowledge.
By the way, fresh lieutenants in Russia have at least five years of extensive military training. But this fact doesn't make them better than, say, fresh Israeli officers (who are almost always former conscripts, but even taking their two to three years of active service into account - judging by numbers only, Russian officers are better trained, but in reality it's not necessarily works this way)
Thanks for providing a counterpoint to Dr. Friedman. While he makes interesting observations, both Friedman and Zeihan extrapolate to extremes that are not properly substantiated
the last 9 months of war in the Ukraine clearly shows Russian training (and army) is substandard. Calling somebody an NCO or officer, or having them serve 5 years in the army, does not matter, they don't know what they are doing.
@@TheKopalhem The proof is in the pudding. Ukraine forces have been trained by US, Uk and Canadian military since 2014 and have re-organized from their old Soviet model to a NATO structure organizationally and doctrinally. Some Ukraine special operations groups are certified interoperable with NATO forces. They have out fought the Russians inflicting substantial casualties and completely destroying numerous units. Having a competent NCO corps to execute the commander's intent without active supervision is a distinct advantage. When I served in the 82nd Airborne, Fireteams (4-5 men) leaders had 3-5 years experience; squadleaders (10-12 men) had 6-10 years experience; and platoon sergeants ( 40 plus men) had 12-15 years experience; numerous training schools and often had served in Rangers, Special Operations, Armor, etc. They could easily run a platoon tactically in lieu of an officer who they were in essence training.
Thank you for the clarification. I truly like to hope and think that we are the good guys.
what a wind wind bag
It depends how you look at it. In the end, the US is the only country to have used nuclear weapons on civilian populations.
THE USA is treating their own people good, but don't do so internationally (exception: western countries). Look at the endless wars or the torturing of innocent people. While Bush gave the decision to torture people (like rape with a wooden stick, electroshocks to the balls etc.) in order to get (wrong) information (also muslim americans), he directly lied to the face of the american people. Such a scumbag.
America's biggest problem is that it always thinks it's infallible and righteous based on exceptionalism.
The tide is turning.
USA is the coolest, why you hating.
Lmao, that's such a wrong reading of the situation. look at history, America has been an insecure nation since its founding. Every generation has thought it was the last of American dominance.
It's nowhere near the end. People are just uneducated and hopeful for the empire's fall. Hoping for a fall is completely useless with the present situation.
The world's waters are almost completely under US control. Or can it be controlled within days... America has an enormous supply of resources... the shale revolution has enabled America to be energy self sufficient... and if necessary, can become an even bigger exporter.
America has the best farmland, best internal water network, best defensive situation...
People need to read a book or two
americunt is about to fall on it's ugly & disgusting face f#@k these trouble making klowns & all it's allies
@@fuzzyspackage There are many reasons for many people to hate the USA. For the most part, the USA openly conceives and implements plans against other countries. USA will be punished sooner or later
Thank you for this excellent video. I learned a great deal.
You learned nothing your fed PROPAGANDA n UNTRUE NEWS
PROPAGANDA DOESN'T GET ANY MORE OBVIOUS THAN THIS.
It is always worthwhile to listen to George Friedman.
especially if you have nothing better to do, then listen to Friedman, pure Western Propaganda BS.
Your are so correct SIR
make me want to cry
Your understanding is based on LAW,Thanks GOD bless.
Messiah
I don't always agree with Friedman, but he hit the nail on the head in this talk. In geostrategic terms, Russia and China are facing enormous challenges. The preponderance of Western angst about their "alliance" is overblown, at the least.
it's our job as Americans to exaggerate every international problem
@@007kingifrit it's your job as americans to keep us safe in europe
@@pcgaming7680 sure if we continue to get rewarded for doing so
But this is what I said. There is no 'alliance'. China only makes pleasant noises until they have you by the balls.
Geopolitics 101, Number One (USA) allies with number three (Russia) against number two (China).
The USA really screwed the pooch on this one.
I like you very much and respect what you have to say. You asked a question: if anybody cares about Taiwan? Yes, my friend. I do
This was the comment I was looking for as soon as the words came out his mouth. I was thinking it would be the major comment of the section
In which language do Chinese and Russians talk. How would they get organised to work together?
Please tell Dr Friedman thanks for his presentation and the calm of his logical approach to this current world concern.
If China and Russia don’t like each other as much as he says, their alliance says so much about how they both feel towards the US- and it doesn’t end with them.
“I never liked the Brits too much but hey, they’re ours” 🤦🏼♂️
This little desk soldier is everything that is wrong with America. He has as little care for the average American as he does for a Russian or Chinese.
"The Decline of Russia and China"...funniest title ever, when it is the US empire dying on its last legs along with its dollar
Yeah good luck with that prediction 😅😅😅
@@TAS_CNX Exactly!! 😂😂😂
How stupid are you? Russia is losing in Ukraine miserably, Chinese population and economy is slowly dying
@@TAS_CNX 34 trillion debt and rising. Look at the army of homeless people in the streets of San Francisco, Seattle, LA et cetera. Look at the southern border. Look at the behaviour of the US president.
I came here for Geopolitical analysis, all I got was anecdotes, platitudes and cope.
I understand how George Friedman uses rational thinking in predicting how the adversaries would act in the near future. However, rational thinking is not used by many adversaries in history. That is why we have Pearl Harbor attack and the Barbarossa invasion. If you looked back at the beginning of the Pacific war, Japan had no chance in winning a war with the US. It lacked the supplies to war. Its army was tie down in China. Its military productivity was not even half of that of the US. Geographically Japan is an island and that means US can bomb her and she got nowhere to hide. At the same time, US is an ocean away and Japan could not invade the US with significant force. In spite of all these, Pearl Harbor happened. Therefore, how do you explain that? Often, when a ruler has no way out of the domestic problems, war is a good way out since war could unite the whole country for a single purpose. Whether war could solve domestic problems is of no concern to anyone.
my concern is american arrogance. its the worst thing immaginable for staying strong. as an aussie i fully support usa but NEVER NEVER EVER GET COCKY. i worry. china is insidious like no other, even tho i feel george knows his subject far more than i.
Professional military personnel in the US Armed forces know not to be (overly) cocky. There is always cause for concern and worry. But at the same time, they are the best trained and equipped fighting force in the history of the world. They know that if everyone does their job, we have a high probability of success.
Now, this does not carry over to our politicians, the majority of which are idiots in general and only care about their personal career and accumulation of wealth and power. That’s why I rarely watch press conferences by politicians concerning military issues. I prefer to listen to the press conferences directly from the military, when possible.
Japan had no understanding of US industrial capacity. They went to Pearl to sink our carriers and they weren’t there. Dec 7 was a failure in practical terms
@@gregrar995 We Americans fully support Australia and are proud to do so.
It isn't arrogance my good aussie friend, it's reality. And that's not arrogance, it is embracing reality. China owes every scrap of its progress to the U.S. and always has. Without the Order (see Bretton Woods, shipping, U.S. Navy) and access to American markets, China is left holding it's d1ck in its tweezers. Ninety percent of its navy is essentially canoes -- they can't sail more than perhaps a thousand miles from their shore in a straight, slow line. They have no blue water navy. They have a big army. It can't go anywhere if we decide to make it stay home. They don't know how to operate an air bridge. We've already covered their navy. These guys are clowns. Every single thing about their strategy that they've "thought out" over the last 40 years has been shown since the invasion of Ukraine to be utterly in error.
You need to listen to some Peter Zeihan, another sharp geopolitical strategist who if I'm not mistaken mentored under George Friedman for a period of time. You'll see that Peter's data is much more comprehensive, and he in fact makes a convincing argument that China will not even exist as we now know it in ten years. I think he's right. Here's a link to one of his presentations from late this summer (winter for you :) ):
czcams.com/video/UA-jOLF2T4c/video.html
My thoughts exactly, also Japan prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor imported more than 80 % of its oil from the U.S. You should never use common sense on how an adversary will act. You simply prepare as if the worse case scenario is going to happen with a deep knowledge and understanding of history.
The overwhelming superiority in weapons manufacturing was the critical factor in determining the success of the US in WW2. The same might happen the other way around in the event of war between China and the US. This is the overlooked aspect that no one seems to be talking about and a key reason this war should never happen.
Exactly, In fact that’s the reason we won, not that our equipment was better but by the end of the war we out produced both Germany and Japan by a factor of 10 or so in aircraft, tanks and ships.
@@notanymore9471 Well, US out-produced Germany and Japan because US could produce at a safe place. Remember US is on an isolated continent where is too far for WWII military technology to reach. But it is certainly not the case in the next major war.
@@biochemwang2421 I don’t disagree. Plus we crated up and shipped off our manufacturing apparatus.
I don't disagree but I don't think the next war will depend on productive advantage as much as WW2. I beleive this will be a war won, lost, or stalemate in the first year, thus the weapons on hand, expeneice and technology will play a larger war.
US has 1 percent of the worlds ship building capacity . China has 45 to 50 %
“Pride Goeth Before the Fall.”
Where's the pride ? More than Half the American people see ourselves as a failure. I don't see where the pride is. Honestly, I think we need alittle pride to avoid the complete division of the country. Last time this happened, the civil war broke out.
What a maroon. 😄
"Face" plant?
If Russia and China are enemies and unable to cooperate, then why is China financially supporting Russia currently. If Russia and China are unable to cooperate then what happened in the Korean War? Millions of Chinese fought on the side of North Korea using Russian weapons and Russian pilots flew Migs for North Korea fighting together to kill Americans in Korean war. The same thing happened in the Vietnam war, the Chinese and Russians cooperated to kill Americans in Vietnam.
Not sure what he is saying or you are saying by context of gibberish, but welcome to ruxia, province of xhina. But it looks like ccp will take bites out of manchuria, since it no longer dares to start with taiwan❤
@@mao_tse_tung1921 What are you even saying? When his comment starts with; "If Torror-Rushistan and West-Taiwan" i'm sorry does he even need to continue before a gibberish evaluation is given? Get triggered all you like, East-Taiwan are not the expansionist's you claim them to be, let others do the thinking for you.
All accurate information. However the negatives are omitted. This isn't some easy win. To believe it is an easy win is foolish.
Our enemies are real threats.
Its a question of what kind of threat they pose, and what winning will look like.
In Ukraine, this appears to be far from over. I don't expect an easy peace. There might be decades of conflicts flaring up across that region over the next few decades.
The Russian culture and mentality is far removed from what we'd expect. that willingness to take losses and continue forward over the long term.
China is the real question...How will they reshape the east, and what will it mean for our geopolitical goals?
Here's a win from my perspective: The decline of authoritarian states, and the overall culture and mindset which breeds that sort of mindset. I'd call that a win if we can accomplish it within this century.
plenty of real threats out there. Expect the unexpected...it rarely plays out like we imagine.
America is slow
This guy is talking nonsense. He has no indepth experience of history of China.
“It’s hard to imagine where do they collaborate”
- Russia and China literally have a land border.
It’s also not only about Russia and China anymore either. Look at Saudi Arabia for example. Or India. Or even Turkey. There is a lot more competition to US then this guy thinks and most of them don’t want USD being a go to currency for global trade. Cuz noone wants inflation in their countries after US decides to print more money. Or their assets vanished if US doesn’t like what they do
Also “Bad History” didn’t stop US from dealing with Germany or Japan
Add the BRICS into the equation. India will be on Russia's side.
India is an exporting nation. Which country is its largest customer?
Lol you flat-earthers are wild.
Nobody really care about India.😂😂
America's twisted imperialist point of view.
He may make a lot of you feel good but the reality is different today.
Omg, is this what they're feeding the young Americans? I'm worried for them. 😰
I pity those poor recruits
Can you take a country with a growing number of tent cities seriously ?
At the same time, china and russia have spoken support for each others endeavor and a bew pipepline between russia and china is helping russia negate the effects of the sanctions
West is declining systematically
I think there is a blind spot in his argument. Drive into any US city you see great poverty also.
Mr. Friedman, do not forget about Poland; yeah, a Bush-ism for sure, but Ukraine has Poland at its back. Much, much more so than Germany. Poland is the logistical hub, back-stage for many (perhaps even most) of the military preparations and the refuge for the vulnerable - housing over 2,000,000+ refugees, adjusting its law on the fly to provide for subsidized housing, free healthcare and education for war refugees. It provided a large %age of its own tanks and artillery, that helped to reconstitute entire battalions facing the invading Russian forces. Continue to reinforce that message during your speaking tours.
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇵🇱🇬🇧🫡❤️
On his website's forecasts he mentions Poland taking over Germany before 2040 so he's pretty serious about Poland.
Ololo, they offer to sacrifice Poland to "bloodthirsty" Russia 😀This Ukraine is over, carry the next one.🤣
Capitalism versus Communism is front and center on the world stage. Empower the United Nations and the International Criminal Court. Russia will not lose.
Russia is not Communist. Putin is far from a Communist. He fancies himself Czar Vladimir of the Russian Empire.
Bruh, Russia hasn't been communist for over three decades. What the fuck are you smoking?
And Russia has already lost. They have irreparably harmed their geostrategic position with this war.
The un is literally the communists/fascists. It needs to be defunded and withdrawn from
they lost as soon as they started the 2022 invasion.
When I was told that PhD meant piled high & deep I laughed and didn't believe it. Halfway through this I believe!
LMFAO They cut the part out where he said we are not going to leave those 4nano meter fabs intact for china to walk right inside and start it up again.
how decline is going?
"If you are in a bar fight, pretend you are crazy" interesting thought to say the least:)
interesting physical, emotional, & humor resemblance
The dying of US empire?
Blessed are the meek, for they will inherit the earth.
Keep dreaming.
Yeah -- six feet of it.
I went to Graduate School with many many Indian exchange students, I truly enjoyed their friendship and great social events; yes America should come together with India, sincerely be friends since we got so many Indian-Americans living in the USA who were born and love their Homeland---India. India's real friend is America.....
Your English doesn’t sound very American. What nationality are you?
First try to set yourself free from western lies and propaganda. Then study about the US decline which is near.
czcams.com/video/jDKzj71UCMY/video.html
@@randomname931 Probably indian
Better say America should vassalize India, because India is like a prostitute. A swing state, in so called "next superpower" that behaves like a burning super yacht awaiting its turn to sink.
one universe
I question Friedman's explanation of the Great Depression. He seems to overemphasize post-WWI US exports to Europe while underestimating the immensity of US domestic commerce. The automobile, radio, and aviation were just a few of of the new technologies fueling growth.The Twenties were called 'Roaring' for a reason. It seems obvious that over-leveraging by our financial sector was inevitably bound to collapse credit, not a dearth of international trade. Cascading effects included the calling in of loans by the US in Germany in 1929, which led to the ruin of Weimar and the rise of Hitler (and not the infamous 1923 German hyperinflation).
Well that’s a relief
Great analysis. Thank you for sharing. Professor. As a Chinese, I agree with 100%. Many people in china are blinded by the GDP numbers, and try to ignore some cold fact. We need to be more pragmatic.
We need such open minded public in our country also.....btw i'm in indian.
I am sure you are 100% Chinese even though you have never been to anywhere near Shanghai 😢
China has left u behind
Whats Mr Friendman's opinion about the ''succesfull geopolitic'' question of Iraq?
What's the question?
Iraq like Lybia like Syria did not succeedon going on to a gold standard. Russia and China and the BRICS nations are steps closer to going on a gold standard. America will take china out? Take Russia out like the Americans did to Iraq, Syria Lybia?
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 I mean it's already crippled to Russia and hammered its kneecaps in so Russia for the most part is a non issue now
@@NadeemAhmed-nv2br you believe Russia is crippled?
@@NadeemAhmed-nv2br the federal reserve is fighting for the survival of the US dollar. .... If the faith of the US dollar falls or crumbles ..... Thanks to these rogue countries.... Means there is no one left to support the dollar and to buy the US treasuries. Hence even more money printing. The real war is where he you support the US dollar or not.
Sigo firme
The man is good at children's comic books. If he writes one please tell me for my kids
Tarzan 's was his favorite
Make sure buy his books before their 5 years old birthday.😂
Good comment. It’s terrifying that anyone believes this moron
US wasn’t half of British manufactured exports in 1900, let alone half of the globe’s lol. For a guy as renowned as this I expect more than amateur hour.
US has been the largest economy in the world since 1890
@@carlosnorris352 Being the largest economy =/= being the largest exporter of manufactured goods. Trade with other countries made up a tiny percentage of the US economy back then, whereas for Britain it was already north of 40%.
Also in terms of overall manufacturing output, they were roughly tied in 1890. By 1900 that split was 23.6% (of global manufacturing) for the US, 18.5% for the UK.
@@Cotswolds1913 are you calling the movement of finished products or raw materials from Leeds or Sheffield to India and Hong Kong “exports” for that period? Cause here in US nothing moving from Wyoming to Texas would qualify as such.
@@carlosnorris352 That is correct, though frankly it doesn’t matter if you keep or remove exports to India, the result is the same, Britain as the world’s leading industrial exporter in 1900, and US making 23% of global manufactured products.
Some of these geopolitics guys really do get to telling a load of nonsense on economic history, something I’ve noticed about Zeihan too, even though I really like Zeihan.
Australians will always stand with America, whatever happens We always have.
u.s is the only big brother you got.
@@johnwhodat8135 Not big brother but master and slave .
@@cashcash5995..lol. when in time of emergency they both need each other.
@威克 if you think the Chinese military is superior than the u.s force you've been brain washed very well.😆
@威克 ..that's right you didn't mention it.. because you know they aren't.
33:32 nice cut lol
For me, my family, and the whole world, especially me: my adorable Jesus, may our feet journey together, may our hands gather in unity, may our hearts beat in unison, may our hearts beat in unison, may our souls be in harmony, may our thoughts be as one, may our ears listen to the silence together, may our glances profoundly penetrate each other, may our lips pray together to gain mercy from the Eternal Father.Amen❤
Y’all are hatin on this guy but I don’t see any of you all spittin important historical facts that most people educated in history know soooo maybe give this guy a break for spittin facts and leaving his emotions at the door?! 😂
He’s holding an invisible wine jar.
Very astute observation lol
American here: Our Prius is hands down the most reliable car in our driveway. 👍🇯🇵
What is time for you to shop where do you want once you start trying to buy American.
@@Americanpatriot-zo2tk Just the facts bro. We didn't become #1 by shielding our manufacturers from superior products.
We did just buy a Ford Explorer that we are also very happy with, (since it apparently concerns you, lol) But we'll check back in ten years, lol.
Glad to be getting rid of our Jeep. (From 2006, when they were still an American company.)
@@Roonasaur my dude, totally cool! I live in Louisville Kentucky that’s where they make the explore understand it is a decent vehicle. I also understand the Japanese make pretty solid Products. Here is my problem. By American brother he keeps other Americans in work but all agree with you if we want to be number one when direct number one products I liked your post and off a lot God bless you and your family and is always greetings from the state of Kentucky.
@@Americanpatriot-zo2tk : As they say, it is hard to climb up and it's even harder to stay on the top. US auto industry became too complacent and arrogant resulting in Japan sped passed them. They have not quite recovered from it. America no longer really owns these 3 auto companies. They built their cars in China. They sold more cars in China than in USA. Why would they leave China. They won't be going back to USA. It's simple math!
@@elliekwong3180 you are right Bro!!! Happy new year 🎊
43 years ago, almost to the day I joined the all-volunteer Navy, now being a soon-to-be, YUPPY the first thing I thought was that so much of what is done is redundant. The second thing was how much waste there was, warehouses full of stuff that would never be used as it was in reserve. Third thing was the obnoxious amount of time spent teaching and beating it into your head that time was not money in the Navy, it was mistakes that cost you both time and money. The last thing I learned, and this was for sure, (as I was in several training deployments that involved hundreds of thousands of military personnel from all 4 branches of our armed forces) if you fight us, we will kick you're a--! As I studied and became a lower Petty Officer I came to understand the hard work and dedication these career guys had and the talent, it truly was not a job to them it is their calling in life, because of this I have never worried about war in my lifetime
Countries don't always collapse from war. Very often it's caused by internal conflicts. This is what's happening in the US right now.
@@snsshorts no it is not
@@unitabob Only time will tell.
Now you are a cool gangster? You dumb fucking slave.
@@snsshorts You can tell you are not an American but an enormous ignoramus on steroids.
I remember George Friedman, when he said after being provoked that Poland will be the new super power in Europe in order to undermine the influence of Germany and France because USA wants so. Here he dropped a massive fallacy that it is unacceptable for Russia to win in Ukraine because in that case Russia will be on NATO's eastern border. Well, NATO will be on Russia's eastern border in any case because Ukraine wants to join NATO. That was the whole point of Russia asking for Ukraine to be a neutral country for more than a decade.
Free countries can choose their own destiny.
@@buzz-es free countries choose their destiny. Alright, makes a bit of sense. What do they choose? What if its; “My destiny is to destroy you and your country.” Free countries can choose their destiny right? That fits the bill. Obviously, countries should have limits on what they choose depending on how harmful it can be to others. Just as how people have laws to govern them and punish those who kill people. Some common sense is in order here.
@@buzz-es What if Mexico chooses to ally with Russia on military basis? How would that free will go with the US?
@@buzz-es I vomit a bit whenever I hear this. They choose their own destiny with a little push from the CIA, usually. How many coups around the world have they organized? Oh, but it's the US, so they always have the moral highground.
You make some interesting points, but I think your biases clouds your overall assessment.
45:31 exactly, the US had an army the size of Hungary’s when Churchill was hoping for them to join WW2, it was never about how the war machine is churning along during peacetime, it’s about how it gets going in an actual war. And it’s not about how well it does starting out, but how it keeps going and developing as a longer war happens. If it gets stronger or weaker and burns out. The US rebuilt whatever they’d lose. Perhaps China could. But the us can rebuild more of the higher end stuff that really matters in a naval war
With the Chinese industrial capacity 5x that of USA? How genius?? 😂😂
Professor George Friedman is the best geopolitical strategist of our time. He's a visionary. Thank you sir in share your knowledge with us.
He's a joke
@@mrsuds9924 You're a dimwit.
You got something against Zeihan? I think he’s better. But Friedman is good too
@@MaxnPow I agree.
LMAO.
It would make more sense for China to absorb Pakistan ? Or some of the other Stan’s?
Honestly, that says more about how little sense it would make to invade Taiwan, rather than how much sense it would make to annex Pakistan.
Lol
The guy who did the intro seems nice.
America can always be trusted!,?
thrusted!😀
the US has finally woken up to making strategic parts (now in arizona) "chips" which are totally under-appreciated by politicians as they know nothing of electronics, - great speech I am in thailand we have a joke here "oh that missile is off to NY" - "ahh that ones off to shanghai as they pass over head". :-)
@EBAY STARS: USA treacherous acts are many and too long to explain. Essentially, USA tried to steal TSMC and Samsung. Taiwan didn't fight back, so were forced to move their factory to Arizona. Samsung fought back with the backing of Korea gov't. They are still fighting the USA. USA tried steal Huawei for their 5G technologies and patents. China stood up to USA's thievery. They finally released Huawei's FCO after almost 3 years of detention. . . ask Katherine Tai, US Trade Representative. BTW, USA stole Toshiba from Japan, Alstom from France, and Tik Tok from China. USA is the biggest thief in the world.
@@elliekwong3180 I will never get tired of you losers crying over the fact that the Taiwanese hate China and willingly moved production to the US to spite the Chinese. Your bitterness and lack of ability to recognize reality sustains me.
Here's the reality: We didn't trick or intimidate the Taiwanese. They just really fucking hate China. All the polling data that comes out of Taiwan supports that, but you can't accept it because that contradicts your whole infantile "America is literally Satan" worldview.
@@elliekwong3180 Im 70 and I kkow all about the USA and its machinations, and a freind of mine (CH/TW) here in Thailand recently had dinner with TSMCs boss in BKK :-)
It seems to me that the U.S., and possibly the whole world, is in great moral decline. This, more than anything else, will be our undoing. “What does it matter if one gains the whole world, but loses one’s eternal soul?”
Absolutely.
Lol you English people........
What the fuck is a eternal soul? Can I eat it?
What do you mean by moral decline?
It seems to me like you are a self-hating loon.
50 years ago was a 2nd Turning Awakening (Summer). Internally focused. Now is a 4th Turning Crisis (Winter).
The reason Summer and Winter can be briefly confused with each other is what they have I'm common...extremes.
But Rest Assured 1968 and 2020 are as different as night and day. As different as 100° Summer day and a -20° Winter Night. In summer things, institutions that we depend on for order in our lives function but we don't want them; in winter the same things and institutions DON'T function but we WANT and need them to.
@Jon Little "Always be wary of soothsayers with book deals." Still, He's speaking in very broad terms, in relation to generational ideals and culture over a period of time. Nothing so specific as your Santa clause or your "Great Bunny of Easter."
That would be an awfully dull and predictable cycle, wouldn't it?
IMO, the jury is still out regarding human behavior and generational cycles. Humans are a complex species on both the individual and the macro/meta level. Predictions on society as a whole have always been a dime a dozen...time will tell. 🍷
@@snickle1980 I guess. BUT nobody even reads anymore. Why would someone go to all the trouble of researching, writing and publishing a book anymore? I'm getting away from the the topic but I just think Neil Howe is unique in his motives and especially in the decades of research in which he unearths centuries (millenia actually) of generational history.
He and Strauss discovered something, and accidentally at that, so I can see why it will take time and scrutiny to be accepted but read it some time. He's literally a modern oracle.
@@GenX1964 " I guess. BUT nobody even reads anymore."
That's my favorite topic...Very few book readers remaining in my generation and even fewer from the one's who came afterwards.
We don't recognize what we've lost just yet, in this transition to digital media...but we will in time... and I'm certain that there will come a day when we'll desire physical, unalterable media/information again.
At the moment, people are still equating topics by anonymous blogs you can read online, with books written by experts in the field.
The technology advance and the decline in American literacy has moved faster than our ability to adapt and change with the times.
to complicate things further, our conversations down here in the comment sections of youtube videos are about to end in one form or another due to AI authorship.
_My wall of text here could have EASILY been written by the GPT-3 AI._
Co-authorship with AI is the future of textual intercourse, and I'm none too pleased...
_"Varus! Give me back my legions of readers!"_ 😁
@@snickle1980 Very well said.
People in ancient times, 12,000 years, understood. We just forgot for a while. Forgetting the cycle is THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE CYCLE! 😆 🤣
Ecclesiastes 3
King James Version of the Bible
To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
2 A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
3 A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
4 A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
5 A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
6 A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
7 A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
8 A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.
Friedman, excellent!
It's not appropriate for Mr. Friedman to imply that President Biden is stupid in this lecture at the US Naval Institute, since the President is the Commander in Chief over this US Navy. He's entitled to his opinions and had expressed this similar opinion in other videos, however, I just don't think it's right that he criticize Biden here in a federal building in front of US military who are technically serving under the President.
1. When did he do that?
2. It couldn’t be more appropriate. Trump was regularly dissed by members of his own administration. Biden is weak, not mentally all there, and aggressive and dictatorial. Pretending like the guy who gave the Taliban all our weapons and a kill list is even competent let alone astute is simply malicious
For certain individuals whole groups of people are as stupid as cattle...
What is wrong with Biden then?
This is the USA where free speech still exists (for the most part). You can criticize the president, if you dont like it move to Chyna.
Mr Fried man thinks he is Tarzan though
SCOUNDRELS,,,,BYE
Holy shit this man is good! The only thing I find amiss is that I think Russia's war was not hard-wired until Putin took Crimea; otherwise Ukrainians would not start training under U.S. supervision, and Russia would not have been su pressured at all.
Estamos en contacto
At 22:38 Mr. Friedman states that if you drive 30 miles west of Shanghai you will find astonishing poverty. I would suggest that Mr. Friedman take the opportunity to drive 150 miles northwest of New York City.
The two are nowhere near comparable. There are still millions of subsistence farmers in China.
have you ever been to china? rural china is literally 3rd world level poverty. They have good 4G coverage tho.
Agreed. Manhattan and rural New York or nothing alike... but the people that live in those places do so because they want to not because the are forced to.
@@captainalex157 I am living in China. No, rural China is a lot better than many 3rd world countries I have visited. Rural areas in Zhejiang and southern Jiangsu are basically no different from Japanese countryside.
I have been living in Shanghai for past 10+ years and I can say, categorically, that Mr. Friedman has never driven 30 miles west of Shanghai or he would not have made such an imbecilic statement. In fact, I have driven much more than 30 miles, west, north and south of Shanghai multiple times over the past decade and my experience is that those places, if rural, are comparable to Japanese countryside, and if urban, are modern, clean, polished and well run, even better than Japanese cities in some aspects, and I have travelled to a number of Japanese cities.
This statement of Mr. Friedman reveals how little he actually knows about the real China. And the fact that he is so well received by the comments here is also very disturbing. Good democracy is built upon well informed citizens. Given what I have observed in the West, the foundation of Western democracy is becoming increasingly precarious, thanks no less to people like Mr. Friedman.
Even if Russia and China could help each other; one is being degraded as we speak; and the other is watching, thinking to itself what does the other really bring to the table if I confront the US.
@Justin McCarthy: So, have heard of something called "classified info"? Do you think Russia and China would advertise all the info. You don't suppose only USA knows how to classify confidential info.
Russia and China partnership is a perfect fit. Russia has the military power and China has the economic power. China is the factory of the world. They can make practically everything. Recently, Putin and Xi had another meeting. Readout stated strong cooperation. In other words, they have each other's back.
BTW, Russia is not losing the war in Ukraine. Look at the map!!!
In contrast, USA spent 20 years fighting goat herders wearing sandals with no tanks, artilleries and planes.
@@elliekwong3180 Russia pretty obviously lacks military power. It is struggling with fighting a nation that has never been considered a major military power and a nation that would not be able to even remotely hold its own against a major NATO power like France, the UK, or Poland, let alone the United States.
As for your whole "lOoK aT tHe MaP" argument, it is beyond idiotic. By your argument, if you looked at the map in, say, August of 1943, you would claim that Nazi Germany was still winning WWII because it occupied much of the Soviet Union. But at that point, the tide had long since turned against the Axis in both the Eastern and Western European theaters and in the Pacific.
China is no longer the factory of the world. It isn't 2005 anymore. Companies are divesting from China and moving their industrial plant to places that have lower production costs like Thailand, India, and Vietnam. Many American companies are now reshoring to Mexico. And China can't make "practically anything". They can make quite a lot of the cheap and low-end, but if you want high-end products like aircraft parts of high-end semiconductors or advanced materials, you go elsewhere.
Christ, the more you talk the more of an idiot you out yourself as. How old are you?
@@elliekwong3180 1) Russia has not won the war that was supposed to be a short efficient "Coup de Main" decapitating the Ukraine regime. And, has lost its standing and most capable units to date. This does not mean Russia may not win after weight of numbers comes to bear in very high cost war of attrition against what was a much smaller country. To be followed by a long term insurgency that may fail; but, will at least eat up a great deal of military bandwidth (nod to your comment about US experience in Afghanistan) limiting whatever assistance it could provide China militarily. Russia has also demonstrated that operationally, logistically and technologically it cannot maintain multi-domain combat. It is basically fighting as if it was WW1. 2) Both Russia and China are fundamentally regional "land powers" in which a great deal of military power is devoted to internal cohesion and security. Even now, Russia's sphere of influence in Central Asia is weakening. And, both militaries could be engaged thousands of miles apart without the ability to coordinate assistance. Neither has the ability to project significant conventional force far beyond their own borders. Does not mean they are weak, but their military power is not complimentary and dissipates quickly at distance beyond their own borders.. 3) China has manpower and needs no real assistance from Russia in terms of land forces and Russia has limited naval capability to assist China in the East. And, its air power has not shown that it has much to offer China. At best, Russia can be Chinas "oil and commodity" supplier if multi-thousand mile supply chains can be sustained and Russia can sustain production levels which are questionable given the exit of Western oil expertise. 5) China's role as manufacturer of the world is declining; is highly dependent on easily interdict able supply chains; and dependent economically on countries (West) buying its goods. China's viability is also dependent on imported oil and food, by sea, which can be interdicted far from China's shores. No doubt they have contingencies and plans to assist each other. But, where is China's assistance with Russia's invasion of Ukraine? China is buying Russian oil, at discount. If there were significant assumptions that Russia would be a great partner, I personally believe that Russia's performance has degraded those assumptions for China. China has vulnerabilities militarily and Russia as a partner does little to mitigate those issues. All the agreements, overt or covert, do not change those realities. To a certain extent both countries are complimentary in economic terms of commodities (Russia) and needs (China). This can play a role in terms of their balancing the economic power of the West and potentially creating an independent non-western dominated economic zone. But, Russia's markets cannot absorb China's productive output. And, both have similar problems in terms of declining and rapidly aging demographics.
I think China is realizing that its military would perform equally well against any western country.
Sure....good for a few days until you start running out of ammunition and fuel and ships to transport those things.
This comment page is quite amusing. Almost half the people are like "this guy is a clown" and the other half are like "this guy is amazing!". They're probably both wrong, but even if Dr. Friedman isn't right about everything, he's probably worth listening to.
Your audio is far too low. but the content is great.
delusional exceptionalism, End of an Empire
One of the best minds of our times. Truly impressive (including the questions put to the speaker). Autocracies are intrinsically weak because they make choices for their own people and force on them an allegiance which is then necessarily brittle. I never tire of listening to George Friedman.
Not necessarily. Every government has popularity with the people, whether elected or not. And in fact most autocracies have had the situation be that there's a large Cadre of people who manage and have loyalty and have loyalty with the people. This isn't really that different from the democracies. Though, democracies are more prone to instability with sometimes over-diffusion of power as well as often people voting in their self-interest at the expense of the broader society. The weakness of autocracies is regarding abuse to the point where it loses the loyalty of the population or the over-centralization of power.
Remember that the most resilient states of all time started as autocracies and that the largest wars in human history were all fought primarily by autocracies.
George and Ron Jeremy are the same kind ,can not be trusted.
It sounds like he is not an expert at all. It is a waste of time listening to him for 49 minutes.
He is a pure stooge .@@icebaby6714
George Friedman is the BEST of The Bests like the movie. 2nd I believe Ian Bremmer 3. Professor John Mearsheimer then only The Rolling Stones & Jimmy Hendrix
This guy reminds me of Harvey Keitel from Pulp Fiction.
Real life isn't like HOI4. You can't send clueless masses of bodies into combat. The future of warfare is cheap, efficient, and deadly. So much so that, we will rethink the whole idea of solving conflicts through violence - as we are too interdependent and cooperative to hurt the other without hurting ourselves.
Human nature says otherwise. Every European politician openly admits they thought the sam thing and somehow are right back to 1914-1918 territorialism in Eastern Europe.
@Jon Little "always will be" huh. We got a Marshall Haig here? Gonna send a cavalry charge into machine guns, because, as you say, "numbers are everything"
@Jon Little The future of war is automated, mechanized, and AI.
Throwing tons of bodies at a laser-gun isn't fighting a war, it's an unintentional self-genocide.
@Jon Little Real life must be a video game then, given Russia's casualties in Ukraine.
We need more speeches like this to balance the crap we hear on media and youtube.
@lombardo141: Clearly, you were not listen to this talk or were not reading/watching the mainstream news media. They mirror each other. Clearly, Friedman didn't do any homework, like Jeffrey Sachs.
@@elliekwong3180 This guy was in the trenches of geopolitics dealing face to face with decision makers whose decisions determined if you ate today or not. Also if he is making stuff up and was able to get a PHD!! Then that's on me.
an interesting guy, a US version of "Commissioner of Strategic Fooyu Agency"
Sounds like the decline of USA
Some predictions in the book The Next 100 Years I thought were trolling or misleading and others were serious predictions. I have 3 for some time now.
1) Russia's future is difficult and its struggles will be internal. It will lose influence in East and Central Asia. China will fill this vacuum, becoming Russia's main external threat.
2)Europe will seek to be more autonomous, and it has a great chance of succeeding. But social differences and difference in values will create two imperfect poles: western and eastern. And the eastern pole will, in practice, be militarily autonomous and proactive.
3)Continuing the American tradition of using former enemies against new enemies. The risk of a catastrophic fragmentation of Russia must be avoided at all costs. When the Russian-Chinese rivalry is well established, the US will balance the scales by supporting Russia politically and economically.
Only 1 of the three forecasts is clearly good for the US. If Europe is more autonomous and feels less threatened by Russia then there is no reason to support the US in military actions on other continents. And the policy of instigating antagonisms does not work well and is the main reason for hatred of the USA.
Can't separate Russia from China and Iran.
They both planned the war in Ukraine and then Taiwan for years.
Lol in reality everything is the opposite
@@donateloxr7824 I could be wrong, but predictions are only confirmed or invalidated in the future. Yes, the present is different, but what will change? I would be surprised if the status quo and alliances hold until the end of the century.
These are not predictions, but an American wish list. And no, these predictions will not materialise...the American sunny days are over....
Friedman is a well-known liar. Theri is no reason to take his chatter seriously.
Bottom line...... China developed wat too fast along with a lot of other recently developing countries. The USA seems to have a "Grow up in a small town, Make you nest egg in The City, Retire back to your small town." Yes there are people that never return "Home" and that is why USA big city's grew. The suburbs are why the USA managed to beat the urbanization trap. A large yard has room for kids.
George, yah pro America!
Before February this year, I wouldn't have believed Professor Friedman's assessment of China and Russia, and the United States, but now it seems very plausible.
Grew up in the '80 and I have the same realization.
Mind-boggling.
Mr Friedman has failed to point out the more important issues at hand. Is he illuding us? Perhaps.
Why doesn't he mention the Russians dumping American tbills in September 2019? And China following suit? And now the BRICS NATIONS? THESE ARE SERIOUS moves. They are putting America in a ticking time bomb.... 30 trillion dollar debt bomb ready to go off? The ride is over. America can no longer take from the rest of the world using fake monopoly money to buy all these things any more.....
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 people have been warning of American immanent financial collapse ever since Nixon abandoned the gold standard, and it hasn't happened. BTW: the Russian Economy is miniscule - smaller than Italy's.
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 Because, despite what you think, those moves don't matter. People like you have been claiming that BRICS is about to overthrow the liberal world order "any day now" since BRICS was founded and it hasn't happened. And, considering that the position of BRICS is more precarious now than it has ever been, that isn't likely to change.
Btw, if you think America's national debt is a time bomb then you should probably take a look at China's and then compare it to their GDP.
@@earthjustice01 Funny. Think tanks and analysts have been doing the same (predicting the collapse) of China since the 90s (incidentally post-Tiananmen) and they're going on stronger than before today. Guess we'll see who blinks first ;)
Decline of the American hegemony
Maybe, but a Chinese hegemony won't be rising to take its place. China is too old and too poor.
@@gingerlicious3500 multi polar world order, in which it's very likely that Europe will be one of its poles looking at French and German ambitions
@@NadeemAhmed-nv2br You're probably right. I think America will still be the most powerful player on the field by quite a large margin, though it won't be as dominant as it was at the end of the 20th century. Europe is facing its own demographic crisis and the EU hasn't been as fruitful as many, myself included, might have hoped.
China has fucked itself in too many ways to name.
Russia is, well, Russia.
Could be, but the whole world seems to be declining with it, Fer.
@@gingerlicious3500 China is constantly growing and still has enormous Potential to grow. Of course, China does not have the capacity to dominate the world, but the world is likely moving fast to be more multipolar in the future
A lie is nothing to these criminals.
"Who cares about Taiwan?" I DO! I am a pasty white guy whose furthest trip west to Catalina island. But Taiwan has TMSC. I don't remember the Arab oil embargo of the early 70s, but do you see how OPEC was able to make life very, very difficult? TMSC makes HUGE amounts of silicone chips. Like your computer? Like your phone? Like the Internet? Like your car? So much of the world now runs on sophisticated electronics. If China takes out Taiwan, they can make life substantially difficult. Plus from there, they can threaten and disrupt our friends and allies in Korea and Japan. Taiwan is a big deal.
george friedman is legend, all the things he predicted have come true, but most in opposit way
Like what? Like the duetch reich? 😂
You europoors are really arrogant for your constant Ls. Go defeat your farmers then come talk.
@@deesus1085 without those europoors your ancestors might eat raw flesh and make bom bom within family members you retarted fool
China is in bad. I used to live in Hong Kong!! Moved back last year
@@deesus1085 What's wrong with you?
One Nazi to the power of four, who can barely handel the challenge of using a keyboad shows up and you think this is how true Europeans in general and we Germans in particular think about the U.S.?
He's either an incurable Nazi or a Vladolf Putner- lover, probably both.
Anyway, Gemans will never forget who saved their butts from beeing kicked by the Russians.
Europe will never forget who saved them from Russia.
@@deesus1085 i think you have way more poor people in the us than we do in europe. most minimum wage poors her can live on one wage, your poors need two full time jobs to survive, thats worse than slavery.
Sir you are a breath of fresh AIR. Thanks GOD bless
It smells like sulfur to me
@John we will destroy you anglophiles and zionists, you fucking rats have a big mouth, you fucking sons of bitches, filthy fucking ugly rats.
Poder intocable respek en todos los sentidos en vida y yo alfrente de todo dirigiendo todo
question, without asking whether US has the ability to block the ports. let's say all ports are blocked, who will be out of stocks? considering the CN-US trade to china now, only gains some green paper cannot spend out, seems not the end of world.
The strait of malacca, where >75% of China’s energy imports (and food) pass through, would be blocked, not the ports themselves.
Mass famine is what would happen.
16:27 This is a nuanced war choreographed by the Americans
17:49 The Chinese problem is a naval problem, they are boxed in by the South China Sea
40:59 Mandate of heaven (lmao)
42:24 We see ourselves in dire trouble
Seldom do I see such a self-assured, sociopathic expert proclaim the immorality of his nation with so little regard for anyone else. 16:27
@@richarddietzen3137 sociopaths naturally gravitate towards positions of power, i don't expect people in the highest echelons of society to think like the average person
Sociopaths are more likely to succeed then regular people
"We've won all our wars apart from Vietnam" Americans are coping so hard about Afghanistan 🤣(And they never won 1812 either)
I'm not sure what reality Friedman lives in, but I would not classify the US invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan as a "Win". By that screwy logic Russians could also classify their past misadventure in Afghanistan, or their current one in Ukraine as a "Win". I would not, and I think it is dangerous to do so. We likewise have had some "military actions" ( not wars ) in places like Libya, Lebanon, Somalia, etc. that I would likewise not classify as "Wins". Then there are others that you might consider a "Win" by military metrics, but were loosing "hearts and minds" in the process, and very arguably were not in our best interest in the long run.
@@JohnDoe-oq2fx i agreee, but sometimes losing wars is a win. simply by leaving the enemy in a state of eternal self-crucifixion. afterall, where is afghanistan today?
War in Afghanistan was won in a day. Trying to establish some sort of democracy in Afghanistan was a fail. We should’ve left right afterwards.
1812 was a draw. The British didn't want to pursuit a long and drawn out war because they were fighting France. Only people who claim the US lost that war is Canada.
@@deesus1085 yeah I agree. afghanistan was a political lose not a military one. Since the death of the terrorist leader, that war was a political game used against the opposing party.
This speech sounds too simplistic, viewing through a prism distorting a much more complex reality of the world were many more many countries and actors play their role.
Prime example of arrogance and living in the past. Underestimating the enemy is the mistake Russia is learning with blood. Saying losing Taiwan doesn't matter shows he doesn't understand the significance of TSMC on global tech industry.
This guy really said America won all its wars except Vietnam? By calculation Kuwait GW1 was the last American military success
I hope this wise man's words prevail!
His opinion is only good as of Today. Things always change LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Every word is lie
Hope is a strong word.
I was hoping Mr Friedman would talk more about the not so obvious issues. Such as the World dumping American tbills in September 1019...... This action alone is an economic declaration war against America. I am surprised no mention of this declaration of war...... Very important. Sad he didn't mention it.
Wise man ?? If wiser than Trump, he should run for the office of the next president of the United States 🇺🇸.