The Russian logic behind a war in Ukraine, 25JAN2022
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- čas přidán 8. 06. 2024
- Are we closer to a war now than a week ago? I follow up on my checklist from last video.
And then I look at the different scenarios for a war and explain why I think a war will be large.
0:00 Intro
0:32 Update on the checklist
3:14 Different scenarios for a war
3:59 The problem with the small scenarios
4:46 A lesson for the West
5:50 It can be brutal
7:23 The Winter Olympics
I discovered Anderson after the war started. Watching his prewar videos in 2023 makes me wish I'd been aware of him from the beginning. Keep it up!
I re-watched this video 11 months in. It gives me the chills how accurately and insightful you predicted the future.
You channel is by far the best source of sober information about this conflict. The fact that I can see this for free restores my faith in CZcams. You should have millions of subscriber.
He makes it look so easy as well. Quite amazing!
I would look at Perun's channel. His hour-long powerpoints are amazing and incredibly detailed.
Nearly 2 years after its still amazing prediction.
This video aged like Chianti. Very accurate predictions.
Today is May 8th. I have not seen this previously, but I must admit that if I had seen it end January when it was made, I would have discarded it as a black fantasy. My deepest respect for your understanding.
This war surprised me in the same way a supreme court ruling that did away with legal security of permits did: I was thinking "The worse scenario is so extremely dumb... Russia will be undone by sanctions. They'll be subject to 99% hate rate in all countries except the dumbest, the most moronic, the most immoral bootlickers like Trump-worshippers or India. China will seize Russia either economically or be rectifying the 'century of humiliation' to the detriment of the defeated putinists. Russia will lose tons and even at most gain very little..... There will be no war."
Well... roughly 2 months after the video was posted I was mailing back&forth with the Ukrainian military attachee to volunteer. The guy rejected me based on me having small kids and not being able to sign for 1 year minimum, bless him. 😆
This aged like fine wine!
Goodness gracious man, I am standing up and giving you a slow clap for this. Unreal analysis and uncanny foresight. Watching this for the first time now helps me to better understand the context of how we got here, the motivations involved, and the various other ways it could potentially have gone. Great work!
You are the best to see what is going to happen than all others
You should read up on what a "slow clap" is...
Watching this now, it really strikes me how smart & informed this guy is. Many people attempting to do projections of future events end up falling way flat, but I just finished watching a couple of his videos from this time period, and damn they hold up well.
I agree your assessment was uncannily accurate.
Holy fuck! After watching this in retrospect, I name you Anders Puck Nostradamus! Absolutely brilliant! 👍
I have tried to wake people for ten years to Putin invading Europe. And all looked at me like I should be locked up.
Total Cassandra from Greek tradition. I couldn't do jack sjit.
I have to keep reminding myself this was released on 25th of _January,_ not February or March.
Jebus, what a magnificent understanding of this event you displayed. Now I have to find you predicting that the russians would have way way more trouble with the Ukrainians then anyone thought.
Kind of magnificent, but Russian talks about "buffer zones" and "security order" should not be taken at face value. It is mostly a tactical truth they use to make their imperialistic ambitions seem more legitimate and gather some sympathy in foreign countries. Russia has nuclear weapons and the political leadership is perfectly aware of the fact that nobody can invade their country.
In this case the reasoning worked out anyway, but in general we probably should not pay much attention what they present to the collective West, but rather what are the narratives inside Russia, how they generally view these things and what their actions imply.
@@taekatanahu635 That's something that only became apparent to me when I started digging because Estonia and Latvia share border w/ Russia and they're in NATO, and now Finland wants to to join NATO and it has a massive border w/ Russia, and after the initial NATO concern Putin said he was fine with Finland joining NATO :S
Well unfortunately you hit the nail on the head with this one, subscribed!
Watching this video three months after it was made, it’s uncanny and scary how precedent the analysis is.
Did you get this after watching the Moscva video?
From memory, I think this was the first of all your videos I saw, from which I then became a subscriber.
Yep, amazingly good analysis. I didn't believe they would go for it until the last days of the month Olympics. Only when the transmitted the infamous session of the security council, I couldn't deny it anymore.
A prescient post. Your commentary throughout this conflict has been priceless.
Very correct analysis, down to the fact that Russias war in Ukraine was a serious miscalculation.
Three months later, they have made
A) NATO more united than ever
B) Two new countries joined NATO
C) They lost all credibility with their absurd crazy claims that Ukraine is not a country, that they are nazis, etc
D) They lost by mid may over 25,000 soldiers and as many wounded. Over 1,200 tanks and God knows what
E) 42 countries support militarily and economically Ukraine and they are all against Russia
F) All the foreign assets of Russia and the oligarchs have been seized
G) They have renounced to their main Kiev objective and recognized it was impossible to achieve
H) They have lost the Kharkiv objective
I) Now they are on the way to loose the Donbas/Luhansk
L) Lets not talk about the sinking of the Moskva & Co.
All in all, they achieved nothing of what they were set out to do. Nobody’s afraid of Russia, and we are all against them.
Same mistake as Hitler, same fate will come.
It's interesting how obvious a lot of this seems in hindsight, yet a lot of people didn't believe it at the time.
From now on I will always listen to what you have to say.
Anyone else find it somewhat ironic that the invasion of Ukraine was to maintain or create a "buffer zone" from NATO considering that Russia already shares borders with several NATO countries and that now Finland with a HUGE land border w/ Russia has applied to join NATO?
This prediction was eerily correct! Spot on in fact.
Absolutely fantastic. I used to follow this channel for the topicality of the Ukrainian war, but now I plan to watch all the old footage. The predictions are shockingly accurate
Finally saw this December 2022. You were right.
Very well seen. I personally didn't think it would come to a war for the following reasons:
1- I knew the Ukrainian army was no pushover anymore. So defeating the army would be costly.
2- I knew the Ukrainian people really didn't want to be in the Russian sphere. So, after conquering Ukraine, the hard part would begin: keeping it occupied.
3- No element of surprise whatsoever. That makes any attack a lot more difficult.
That combined, my assesment was that a war would be a very costly blunder.
What I didn't really know was that the Ukrainian army was so much stronger and especially that the Russian army was so much weaker than anyone thought. So, starting this war was even more stupid than I thought. Now it will end in the destruction of the Russian army and the Russian economy. Well played Putin.
Mostly I agree. Only I think I can yet take a long time.
I wish it was not for something so tragic that you deserve congratulations for reading the runes. I'm writing on the 1st May, and what you have outlined has horrifically come to pass. You say here it was already predictable. I confess I was among the many who did not see the signs and interpret them right.
(The link to this video appeared when I clicked on your much later one about the sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva.)
Yeah he proberly came with the best explanation for the loss of the Moskva i have heard.
Subscribed after your Moscva Video and got this in my feed. I see now you've been calling it from the beginning.
Are you a prophet, or what?! Amazingly insightful.
Remarkable insight !
Brilliant analysis specially with hindsight. You said you hoped to be wrong but you were sadly not.
10/10 predictions, well done.
....The dude predicted it like nobody else on earth.
Prior to and during the initial invasion we saw the right wing media, populist leaders and influential anti-western voices inundate the airwaves claiming invasion was fear mongering, that the idea of Russian aggression was Nato propaganda. These messages as designed went viral on social media. Yet for me the serious warning and concerns from Western Governments and militaries filtered through, feeling disturbingly sincere.
I'm no fan of NATO, I've long opposed American+British imperialism. I marched against invading Iraq, their claims of weapons of mass destruction and general fear mongering felt specious from the outset. NATO were triumphant in collapsing the Soviet Union. And yet they maintained that enemy and helped the oligarchs steal the wealth of a massive nation. The UK let these literal murderers and war criminals buy huge tracts of London real estate, even letting them buy up our cultural heritage such as football clubs.
Prior to the invasion we had all these anti-western, anti-nato, anti-american voices claiming it was all yet another western hoax. When the massive invasion began, those same voices shifted to blaming the invasion on the west, NATO, the USA etc.
Voices like my own that have long criticised NATO, suddenly were labelled unpatriotic and demonstrably wrong. If you had made or make any criticism of NATO that was tantamount to unashamed support for Russian aggression.
Such an unfortunate result, those who for decades have called for NATO to support demilitarisation and increased trade on Russian borders, for integration with the west and opposition to the massive theft of wealth from Russians to oligarchs suddenly were labelled as Putin's puppets and anti-Ukraine.
I fully support Ukraine, oppose the illegal authoritarian imperialist Russian invasion along with vehement recognition, acceptance and disgust for their war crimes. Criticism of NATO doesn't mean people like myself oppose Ukrainian financial/military/political support.
Many, many people predicted it just as he described. But you were either accused of western fear mongering or Russian propaganda.
@@beardedchimp 😄 Why would you "criticize nato"? This war isnt about NATO, this war happened because putin was pissed about Ukrainians living better than russians. That's it.
Spot on Anders
Wow! That was prescient. Kudos!
This video is what made me subscribe to your channel.
Your videos have been the best on the war here on CZcams.
I was not expecting to find the modern equivalent of Nostradamus by clicking on a random recommendation
Isn't it funny how somebody always knows? And then nothing stops it anyway?
@@CEngelbrecht Because there is yet to be found a
cure of stubborn stupidity.
Boy did this video aged well
Boy, did it make sense... I truly hope to come back here in 7 months to announce that it all led to world ✌️ and global democracy
Well, this aged well
Wow. So right. I wish you hadn’t been… but 👍
I hope you are getting huge fees from government and media for your insight, Anders, as you were spot on!
He is getting his salary as Commander in the Danish Navy working at the Defence Academy. That being said, he's probably in a good place for arguing for a bonus when that time comes 😁
As an aside. People appearing in media in Denmark, as he has done a bazillion times since the outbreak of the war, always do so without pay, government or private.
@@77LCJ Explains why he is thinking like an intelligence officer!
We face another Hitler in Putin, and most of Europe was asleep to the threat.
We must get Russia out of all Ukrainian territory on 1 JAN 2014, and Russia all access to Crimea.
How did you... Even the Olympic timing?? I would laugh if it weren't so very prescient. Well done.
I just discovered your channel a few days ago , today is May 3 2022 and watching yiur videos I have to say you sir knew your stuff !
Holy jebus this was accurate
Wow! amazing analysis! and since it makes so much sense, I can see why you don't have that many subscribers. YT algorithm seems to favor fools like "The Duran"
Feels good to hear this and be reminded. Exercises and concentration combined with unrealistic demands all pointed to war. Never mind the retoric. There was no way NATO and Europe would just turn back the geopolitical clock 25 years because Kremlin asked for it. Even a simple HOI4 player like my self could not see any peacefull way out for Russia. You don't spend all that political capital and resources without geting someting for it.
Who the heck is this guy?? Is he from the future?? I just saw when this video was published and I'm shocked. Or he is some big friend of Putin or he is a time traveler.. Shocking that every piece of word he sad is just happened exactly..
Danish Naval Officer. Basically a senior Danish military intelligence official.
I was interested in your opinion about the actual situation and very appreciate you sharing your thoughts here. As this video was new my gut feeling was the same, something big is around the corner. There still was hope that a war is not a firm plan but just one of considerations, rather improbable as the affort required to achieve the goals would be deterrent enough... Well, here we are and the end is not in sight.
What a development in only 6 days. And unfortunately - you were right. Probably you even *were right* about the *Winter Olympics, ending on the 20th febr.:*
Putin kept the invasion secret and only told his generals in the last moment. At that point the *invasion was postponed "a few days"* because 20% of the Russian vehicles weren't ready for action before receiving urgent repairs. Finally the invasion started on (not the 24th but already on) the *23rd february* as documented on live footage from the UN Security Council meeting the 23rd in the evening.
Almost perfect prediction. Just missed in the end. Great analysis!
I often think I pay too much in taxes but I obviously get a lot for my money in the Defence Academy where Cmd Anders Puck Nielsen works 👍
You called it right
Oh my God. You are so good than a oracle. 6.mai.22
This aged well.
and they waited for Olympic finale in ice hockey finish. They started an attack right after that.
Woow great analysis and prediction of Russian invasion. xd Excellent job.
Looking at how the war has unfolded so far, your prediction has been stunningly accurate.
Det er nogle gode informative videoer. Desuden synes jeg også I klarer jer godt i "Krigens døgn".
Tak skal du have. Det er jeg glad for at du synes.
Two years in, and yes - you were right. Big war.
🇺🇦
❤
Wow
👏👏
Forthseeing the invasion of Ukraine es a way to put and step forward on ¨Chamberlian - like¨ european wiews of the Putin geopolitics on its named ¨security¨zones. Ukrania and United States saw very clearly and the result is a military, political and economical contexts negative to Russia. I am a historian researcher and this is the way to analize the world. Congratulations.
Very prescient. I think you are in good company with just a few other people who got this right. US intelligence did, too, and that was reassuring to see after that horrifying debacle in Iraq II. But US intelligence got other things wrong, like how Ukraine would respond. I don't think that you underestimated Ukraine in the same way, here.
sendt a link of the video to Peter Viggo
Thank you for the analysis.
In my opinion, big or small war, depends on the Russian analysis, of the western reaction pattern, up to the war. Also, Maskirovka, I don't think it should be ignored. Putin is a KGB man, yes, he wants to make a slow media build up, but that is not to say Maskirovka is not involved. For instance, if all what he wants, is the Donbass, then the Show Of Force build up, makes sense.
I think that a big war is of course possible, however, regardless of KGB or FSB, they both worked with public perception. So in that context, a big war, will make Russia look greedy and unfair, when using overwhelming force.
So I think he will start a small war, focusing on the southeastern part of Ukraine. However, if needed, scaling it up to a medium or a big war.
Looks like Russia tried to make it a big war with small war resources at first. That failed, so it tried to make it a small war with big war resources in Donbas. But then Russia discovered that it didn’t have “big war” resources except for artillery, and that it looks greedy and unfair no matter what because it’s trying to invade and annex another country.
@@bluemarlin8138 I think they wanted a small war at first. However, then president Biden started to escalate his warnings about a Russian attack. So they had to change their plan, in order to stretch out the Ukrainian defense. That is why the southern attack was much better planned and executed than the northern.
30 days before the actual invasion. This is uncanny with hindsight.
Russia certainly is teaching NATO a lesson and, importantly, to non-NATO countries as well. We might well see this with Finland and Sweden formally joining NATO. Georgia too will be looking at its options, although NATO membership looks a distant possibility in that case. However, some western-backed reinforcement of its defence capabilities cannot be ruled out. With the damage that Russia has sustained to its military forces, then it's not currently in a position to react to such a thing in the same way. What will be key there is the Turkish response which is increasingly semi-detached from NATO.
Cassandra.
🙏 Thank you for sharing. Do not miss out > Promo>SM!
I do really hope you are wrong...I guess not..
nope :(
What a sleeper channel. I guess it's true that nothing much happens in Denmark.
Then just go back to your wargames.
Um, what?
What a fool believes.
But it happen just as he predicted before the invasion!. By the way - many things happen in Denmark😂