Listings Rise, Will Condo Prices Fall? + First Rate Cut - Toronto & Vancouver Markets - June 2024
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- čas přidán 13. 07. 2024
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0:00 Intro
1:00 Vancouver + Toronto Market Update - Are Rising Condo Listings Leading to Price Falls?
16:08 Will Bank of Canada's First Rate Cut Spur Market?
19:24 Where Will the Market Go Over the Next 6 to 12 Months
27:45 Trudeau Says Home Prices Need to Remain Strong While CMHC Says Declines of Up to 40%+ Needed to Restore Affordability
40:55 How is Canada's Supply Strategy Going So Far?
It’s the first summer episode for the Toronto-Vancouver real estate roundtable time with Urmi, Steve and John!
The weather may be jumping up, but the real estate markets remain sluggish - John and Steve take us through the latest stats and explain what is happening in the condo sector as listings hit a record high. Also: the first interest rate cut has finally dropped - how will it affect the market? Plus, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau admits that no one really wants home prices to fall - so how exactly is the government going to restore housing affordability for current and next generations?
Contact Us
Follow Steve on X-Twitter @SteveSaretsky; Email at: steve@stevesaretsky.com
Follow John on X-Twitter @JohnPasalis; Email at: askjohn@movesmartly.com
Follow Urmi on X-Twitter @MoveSmartly; Email at: editor@movesmartly.com
About This Roundtable Series
Each month, Move Smartly.com editor, Urmi Desai, talks to John Pasalis, Housing Analyst, Broker and President of Realosophy Realty in Toronto, and Steve Saretsky, Housing Analyst and Realtor at the Oakwin Realty Group at Oakwin Realty in Vancouver about the latest data and on-the-ground insights in Canada's biggest residential RE markets. (Thanks to Jesse Bains, now at Linked In News, for kicking off this series at Yahoo Finance originally!)
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is co-hosted by Urmi Desai, Editor of Move Smartly, and John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on CZcams and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also listen to this episode on our Move Smartly podcast channel here: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast...
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
Great discussion. It is nice to hear the voices of reason in these crazy times of speculation and manipulation.
If you guys are right about the RE market never correcting (and I'm not saying you're wrong either) then we had better start setting aside land for tent cities and RV parks for the future.
If that's the future then one will come with the other.
I live in Abbotsford, BC.
There is a tent city at the freeway onramp, and the rest stop at Bradner is completely full of people living in their RVs and cars. I had a conversation with a gentleman there last summer, I had to pull in and check my trailer, he had a job and said most there had jobs, just cant find affordable housing.
This group will continue to grow.
Lol
It will until the current system breaks down. Nothing last forever.
Chain link fence with barbwire will increase your value more than kitchens & bathrooms.
Welcome to canada
Do you really think that it is house prices that force these people into tents ? They are drug addict wild people who have no intention on ever joining society regardless of the support they receive . Do you know why they built, temporary modular houses rather than structures because even when they are given a home, they just destroy it within 4 to 5 years.
@user-vi8ci2bi6b - Thank you for watching and for your comment! It's easy to talk about all of this breezily day-in-and-out, but I do find these on-the-ground realities on the ground really troubling. My interview with BC CBC Journalist Gregor Craigie about his latest book documented many heartbreaking stories like you describe in Abbotsford: czcams.com/video/F---7kDjkCA/video.htmlsi=UtPI_WHnBgGRO3ZR All of us as Canadians should be aware and asking our leaders for better on housing for sure ~ Urmi
Friendly reminder that the US federal reserve started it's rate cutting cycle in September 2007. Was that the bottom of the recession or just the beginning?
I think Steve is very very neutral and unbiased in his opinion. I really look forward to what he has to say and due to his unbiasness his views has more value I think.
No , he isn't, his opinion is that real estate is very overpriced and he wants the government to do something, anything, he's been praying for a crash for years. But he understands how ridiculous these ideas look and he's trying to put a brave face on his defeat.
Huh? @@tudvalstone
Your a great interviewer. Great conversation with these two fellas.
Another great episode. Keep up the good work! You guys know your stuff.
I am always puzzled with "shortage of Inventory" narrative... where all these people are living now when rents and sales are down and inventory growing?
I don't get it either. If you look at the listings, tons of condos, homes and townhomes are on for sale.
It’s a made up number.
They're living in illegal rooming houses and friends and family. Talk to the cleaning staff at your office to get a clue.
Prices are just too high for people for afford. The supply is just the 2nd problem.
Thank you all for being refreshingly honest. Listen to many financial channels daily. Has been impressive, how honest Canadian content providers are compared to the MSMedias. Keep it REAL like you do. It is so good to see fellow Canadians are getting the truth from your channel.
So many issues for investors between the new capital gains inclusion rates, high risk defaulting tenants and no protection from LTB and very high interest rates making it very hard to be cash flow positive
Very good conversation guys,, thank you
The banks appraisal officers are to blame for some of these ridiculous appraisals
Concerned about condo market. I feel there is a huge differential between small sq ft investor downtown condos versus 1000 sq ft condos for young families and first time home buyers want to get in to. I want to buy a small house in 2026 ( I have a low mortgage) expires and I have $700 in equity. I want to sell a great corner 2+1 condo with lake view. My question is …….are these condos like mine staged and priced well doing ok?……….and maybe better when and if mortgage rates get better? I feel the downtown condo core is hurting the overall feeling and sentiment of condos in general and not fair. Condo living, I hope, is still a good entry level into the housing market in Toronto. Could you please give me some positive hope. Will the investor condo stop affecting sentiment for primary condo home buyers.
The Market decides where the price will go. When supply outstrips demand and buyers need to sell NOT want! then price will correct
when I go into RBC in Vancouver and ask where to put my money for retirement, the options generally don't include housing,
so then I say 'what about buy a home Vancouver, it seems like that is the best investment' they say 'it can't stay like that forever'.
If I ask an RBC mortgage broker where I should invest for retirement they say I should talk to the investment people about that and then immediately preapprove me for a mortgage amount that is so high I could just barely make the payments...
CMHC''s 38% house price decline in Ontario by 2030 is out to lunch. There is a steady increase in population due to immigration, creating a heightened demands. Labour and material costs continue to rise, so developers would have no choice but increasing the selling prices. Interest rate continues to be high, further contributing to developers’ costs. High interest rate is limiting the number of buyers, resulting in fewer new housing being built. Increasing demands coupled with moderating supply are driving house prices up.
I’m not convinced blanket appraisals is going to be enough to stop a sell off of condos in the coming 1-2 years. Just kicked the can down the road for the immediate future.
Great podcast! Said all the things Canadian don’t want to hear/accept
The banks are part of the mortgage market, and the market does not want to lose money. This is why the banks keep appraising the entire building at the same price. These are usually the same banks that financed the developer, and per Ron Butler, they would save $100 million default and spread the risk over 100s of condo owners, hoping only a few of those default. This is market acting freely without any government interference.
It might just be a grind for the next 2-3 years. Hopefully the majority come out with little to no pain.
That would be ineffective. You need the pain.
In Canada you know where your customers are going to be. Canada has very few cities so investment can move quickly to those cities.
Small condos are about to crash big, way too much inventory and measly rate cut wont make a difference as this inventory is way over valued. Paying manhattan prices in toronto makes no sense
realtors finally kicking themselves in the ass
Glad to hear truth here. 😊😊
It must be summer the. You know what summers were also very slow? 2015, 2016, 2017 ... you get the idea.
Nice smile Urmi
Im looking to buy in the next year or two. Im happy to wait out this turbulence and focus on promotions and hoarding cash while the market tumbles. Im expecting prices to continue to decline for the next few years, so hopefully ill buy the capitulation next year or perhaps the year after that. True pain hasnt been felt yet, and once that occcurs lots of deals will come up.
Just admit you can't afford it pleb
$1 properties just around the corner. Keep waiting. Almost there
@@babyjeero123 lol. I'm not expecting cataclysm. Just a slow bleed. We haven't even hit peak fear yet. That may come next year.
@@Prediculous
Yes once we hit multiple rate cuts, and increased population i think the real fear will be rising rents. Or even the lack of new builds? who knows that crash has to be around that corner
@@babyjeero123 you think population growth will remain this high? Hate to tell you but it's decreasing significantly, the economy is getting worse and incomes aren't rising. Sure houses go up (most of the time). But I wouldn't be surprised we see higher rates for longer which will yield many opportunities. Boomers are also set to downsize. That's another cohort that may feed into it.
When a dog bites your hand do you walk by that house again 😆🤣
Rents went down in toronti brcause all the hindi students came to surrey/vancouver.
I don't know why these people with so much experience can't get it. For the sellers who want to get out, just price it a bit lower than others listed in your neighborhood, there will be more pain in future. Get that exit by pricing only a bit lower. You'll still win.
We need at least 2% more cut in order to see more activity in Toronto housing market!
Well, more activity can be also caused by price declines. IMHO, it would be even better...
Steve looks like his newborn is screaming in the background. Lol. Ive been there.
Greasy investors are out and foolish investors are feeling the bite bad.. rates can't come down by a lot which a fair tale which a lot of real estate professionals orgasm to. market is bound to go back to fundamentals which is what the median incomes can support. Hang tight and rent until then. If you have fear of not buying anything in future then actually trust me it's won't be worth buying anything here anyways.
Steve is always similar thing in Vancouver from Toronto, I feel you repeat what John said. I feel Vancouver and Toronto have little different types of buyers too, more retirees in Vancouver than Toronto, you needs to elaborate more .
Don’t sell wait for interest rate drop more, it is a strategy . If I can wait for over a year, I can wait for another 6 months.
The American Fed is saying only 1 cut this yr. BOC would be nuts to keep cutting imo. It's time for the real estate sector to correct. It's incredibly unhealthy supporting such a wildly overvalued market.
Inventory has been skyrocketing in gvrd and sales tanking, clearly renewal cliff is getting more and more people. Things are about to get alot worse and its needed.
Trudeau's comments might not be a contradiction, if you stop conflating 'homes' with 'houses'. Government is incentivizing dense housing construction including lowering costs for builders (HST removal, lower development fees etc) . In addition to condos, the government is incentivizing purpose built rentals. This will put pressure on rents medium term, making it less attractive to own a condo as an investment . Therefore, it is entirely possible that the price of condos and stacked townhouses could enter into a long term period of stagnation. Investors out, owner occupiers in.
Single detached homes (largely owned by boomers) on the other hand, are going to become increasingly rare as they represent a lower share of the overall housing stock. In fact, older single detached homes are being razed in favour of triplexes and quads. So the absolute number of single detached homes will decline. Therefore, "houses" will easily hold their value allowing boomers to use them as piggy banks and provide their retirement security.
Young families going forward, are going to have to accept raising their families in condos or apartments.
Reality of cost to own starts to settle in
With all do respect I think you guys are wrong about the amount of building we will see in the near future. As investor appetite for real estate declines, builders will happily work with government because they need to offset revenue loss. Governments always step in when an important industry for jobs and the economy is rapidly declining. It's called stimulus. The government has even been looking at blue-print homes and building on federal land, they want to build home quicks and with little overhead costs like permit other fees. BC was the first to increase housing, but every province will follow in the next 2 years.
@MapleLeafsPWN - Thanks for watching and for your comment! Interesting point, often governments spend on public infrastructure projects when the economy needs a boost, a shift to trying to spur home building to offset poor conditions for building would be an interesting move if thought out properly ~ Urmi
sellers and agents are all sitting there waiting for a sucker and being fooled by the average sale price because starters aren't buying and everything is selling one house and using equity to buy another forcing the average price up.
John is such a promoter just in denial lol
Bad karma in Canada !!!
They shouldn’t have cut. The Fed didn’t cut and they were talking about only 1 cut this year. People need to stop talking about these cascade of interest rates dropping.
Oh my.
That is three too many smiles.
Prices are 30% above where they should be.
I do not care why.
I suspect it is Pierre's FTA with China's fault.
We need a living wage or, we need to impose a 30% market cut on home prices.
Condo owners are getting ripped off big time. Plus they live in a small prison with a broken elevator.
What have we done to this country? This is how people used to talk about hockey. Heaven help us!
The new daddy looks tired. Welcome to parenthood.
Looks like he aged 10 years, time to update the thumbnail.
A cautionary tale.
Since when is a realtor a housing analyst?
Who needs lower mortgage rates? 1%
Who needs lower home prices? 99%
⏰️ It's time to wake up⏰️
#GTAOntario #HousingCrisis #Canada #Realtor
How can you tell when a realtor is lying the moment he opens his mouth
It's incredible that builders would literally rather hold land and make 0$ than to take a smaller profit margin with the land they have. What would happen if land was more available?
same tired old stories imagine if you put all this time to good use ?
Thanks for listening - what real estate stories would you be interested in hearing about? ~ Urmi
Same old story? Growth in inventory = continuation of a recent trend that could become something big. Good episode. Thanks for keeping me informed.