I predicted the exact time of my daughter's birth using science and data - from Just For Graphs
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- čas přidán 6. 12. 2017
- This is an excerpt from Just For Graphs. Get it on DVD and download here:
shop.festivalofthespokennerd....
I analysed the data from my wife's contractions prior to the birth of our daughter and tried to guess when she would be born.
The android app I used is called Contractions Timer:
play.google.com/store/apps/de...
Visit my blog here: stevemould.com
Follow me on twitter here: / moulds
Buy nerdy maths things here: mathsgear.co.uk - Věda a technologie
"Why was i born, daddy?"
"science experiment"
at least not accidentally
@Sdtok underrated
Guinea pig:Why was I born, daddy?
Scientist:Science experiment
To suffer
for the data points
This guy's wife intentionally had the baby at that exact time to let him feel like he was right : )
woah, she is so nice
probably she took the injection to abort, i mean, to give to birth.
another abort in the world - likes the father....
Could you rewrite that?
At 50 she was like : you better come out now make daddy proud of his math shinanigans!!!!
Ummmmwo that’s not how that works
I'm not getting upstaged by a square , *and that thing he drew*
Munjee Syedd
I knew it was going to be good at that point
Especially a Parker square...
I'm really curious what that segment was about... And what WAS that thing he drew
Brett he drew a Parker's square, which is almost a square but not quite. Check Numberphile channel for Parker's Square.
Was that already a thing three years ago though?
The little throwaway lines are hilarious
"I'm helping"
"I'll bring my wife"
"And the money"
nah these were boring
"Error bars, an unusual name for a first child"
*looks at X Æ A-XII*
**looks at ABCDE** (pronounced like ab city apparently)
You're really funny and an excellent story teller.
i dont like clowns.....sorry aboput that,
@@lkkjhtemmexv1838 Who said anything about clowns?
Funny how??
Nice one
@@lkkjhtemmexv1838 probably sucks hating yourself then?
Oh Steve. Everyone knows mathematicians don't have sex -- they just multiply!
*shakes tip jar with a look of skepticism*
Matthew Cecil *puts some change in the tip jar*
*like jar
Multiplication via division
Matthew Cecil MITOSIS
@@DanielHJeffery Lol
I've noticed he names his children after constellations
@Matrix29bear OK matrixbear
@Matrix29bear who hurt you
@Matrix29bear I would rather name a teasable name and coach on mindset to deal with insults.
@@egonics2068 😂👏
Aster isn't a constellation
Aster Mould sounds like a problem you'd get on your plants
That's mean....
I laughed anyway...
Now I feel bad :(
LOLOLOLO
😂😂😂
For a moment I read "in your pants"
I thought, dude! you don't tell someone his newborn child sounds like an STD!
Tom Stephenson yeah, semen
Were you within the error bars for Aster as well?
Asking the important questions!
(a comment just to get notification if this is answered)
Exactly what I was thinking...I need answers! (Congrats on the baby though!)
important question indeed
I was wondering that as well
The upstaged by a square joke was fantastic
Zachary Taylor I didn't get that joke :/
@@arpithamariam2636 It's been 2 years... Is no one going to explain it?
@@huberduberdoo Lol. Guess we will never know
@@arpithamariam2636 First he says "I'm not going to be upstaged by a square," implying that he is worried that the square that Matt drew is getting more attention than he is.
Then he says "and that thing that he drew," which implies that Matt himself is the square and he doesn't want to be upstaged by Matt (and the square that Matt drew). In this case "square" meaning something like "dorky conformist loser" in American slang
My wife and I watched this while she fed our new, five day old baby boy. We were both rocking with laughter, about which Connor was very confused as he attempted to drink his lunch.
Denis Ryan I’d love to give the sentence ‘drink his lunch’ to people without adding context
He must be 2 years old now :)
Can you predict the time I win the lottery?
yes! never
In 43 months and 23 days at 5:47pm
even i can do it, it's Feb 29, 219,895,116
320 December 2020
Oh yeah it's after the heat death of the universe, you're gonna get hit by lightning approximately 14 times before winning it
Fathers now have an important task to do while their wives are pregnant
So now there needs to be an app that automates the graph and prediction.
Really, what is it called?
drvanon I think you misread this he said there needs to be one not that there is one already
Sounds good but it doesnt work like that. It was just pure luck that it actually worked the first time. Thats why he didnt put up the real time for the second baby, it just wasnt right.
I mean think about how easy it would be to predict birth if that was true - it would make a lot of things much easier.
@@leocurious9919 bruh can u atleast provide evidence? or r u just gonna deny and say its luck?
@@jackomnms3399 What do you mean, evidence? If it was THIS EASY to predict the time a baby is born and also THIS precise, you wouldnt have women in labor for >24h and shit hitting the fan. What do you think why the midwives told them its too soon? Because they dont do it 500 times a year and the whole medical system doesnt know even the most simple correlation? No. Its simply not possible to really predict when a baby is born. Some take less than 2 hours in total, others struggle >24h. And its not one cause, there are lots of things that can delay birth. He (his wife) can be very happy that it was a very quick birth. Most births are not like that. Even after the first stage (active phase, full cervical dilation) a lot of things can delay the birth. So even at that point you cant tell when the baby will be born. This is WAY past the point of having regular uterine contractions.
Aster Mould?
Only shooting stars break the mold.
God damn that' s quality
somebody once told me the world is gonna roll me
I ain't the sharpest tool in the shed
It was looking kinda dumb
with her finger and her thumb
You are so good at public presentations. I hope one day I can be that great.
Passion and full knowledge helps a lot.
@@xyanide0101 I don't think overly serious presentations are that effective. Sprinkling in some comedy helps a ton with maintaining the focus of your audience. Especially with boring presentations like experiment reports etc.
But what time was Aster born? Is it within the error bars?
Jake Jones yeah.. I think he didn't said because he got it wrong..
@Matrix29bear HAHAHA
Jake Jones 20:55, which is 8:55pm
@@account4345 That's the first baby's estimated birth. The second's (Aster) estimated time was 18:15, but he didn't confirm the actual birth time.
Classic Parker Square
parker birth
"Little errors"
Mr Nerdy golden
Parker square wave, am i right, mr 555?
Congratulations brother!!!
aaaaaaa
Congrats on your second kid! May your nerdness helps them both in their future endeavors!
"We do it for the love really... And the money." Hahaha!
Abdullah Mohd. Khan Truest thing ever said.
I wish everyone was that honest i wouldn't even mind buying some more for that
So... How accurate was the Aster-graph?
Also, youre good on stage!
you're*
@@JorgetePanete Thanks grammar nazi! Don't know what'd we do without you :)
Letter L oh ok, why don’t we go back in time, to the original English?
Doth not speaketh liketh yond! yond is the ruin'd language!
@Letter L Doth not speaketh liketh yond! yond is the ruin'd language!
He showed on it that she was 1 minute later than predicted(but error bars) if I read the graph right. Getting it right within 1 minute is quite amazing.
that laugh was pretty psychopathic ( at 5:59 )
*-*
I love how he cracks himself up every time he tells a joke, It’s really sweet
How accurate was the second one?
Dude you're one of my favourite people on earth, thanks for doing what you do and sharing it with the world!
+Master of the universe thank you!
Steve: "As you can see there's a point in the future at which my wife's contractions become perfectly regular"
Midwives: "No duh, that happens in every childbirth ever"
Steve: "and that's a 20:55"
Midwives: "..."
Wife: I want a bath
Steve: I got a graph
Midwives: What's this math?
Lyra: Finally gotta breath
Audience: I gotta laugh
Amazing
Haha thats cool man !
Hotel : Trivagoooooo
Immediately subscribed after this video, the quality of your videos and content is so high and your humor is just excellent.
Please make this a real birth prediction app
KASA yeah but it would be a lot more useful if it automatically calculated the expected time of birth
Congrats to you and your good lady Steve. It was great to see you, Helen and Matt on the last tour (twice). Now I'm off to buy the DVD ... Happy Christmas to you all.
+Matthew Wilmshurst thanks Matthew!
This is my second time watching this and I just noticed at one point he said "knocked up" and "reproduce" and I don't know if those were accidental or jokes 😂
Pun definitely intended
Man this guy was on fire!
My wife's experience of child birth also had the hospital staff failing to correctly extrapolate the time of birth, such that they failed to summon the anesthetist. Both times. But, to make up for it, the hospital charged for the anesthetist anyway, and the health insurance paid up. So that app might come in handy to some other ladies who don't want to just 'suck it up' and really would like the drugs that they are inevitably going to pay for. Just a thought...
Steve mould is that one person who's so charismatic, that if youre an electrical guy(passion for electrics) you'd want to switch skillsets because of the stories and ideas and stuff he tells. One of the best educational youtube guys out there :D
So, how accurate was the birth time of the second baby? I saw 6:15, but I didn't see any error bars or actual time.
I have one of those VHS copies... I regret nothing
That graph could be a midi...
I wonder how would it sound like...
Pain.
I love your videos! Keep up the amazing work!
oh you scientists!! LOVE, LOVE, LOVE this - congrats to you and your wife - and many blessings (including the blessing of sleep) as you go forward.
Dude i love your whole motto and creative knowledge +1 sub
Very funny video! Thanks and all the best with your family!
Festival of the Spoken Nerd is how I heard of Matt Parker. Matt Parker is the reason I found Citation Needed. Citation Needed has saved my sanity on more than one occasion. Thanks Steve.
I watched this so many times! Very entertaining!
This is the most ive laughed at any of your videos! this is brilliant!
Recommendations have gifted me this wonder
@stevemould What technique, formula, or code did you use to pinpoint time of birth? Did you use excel or another program for stats? Thx
This guy took family planning to the next level
The chemistry between these three guys is amazing.
This guys comedic timing is awesome
The whole new level of not-being-an-accident
"I-Its coming out!"
"Honey, could you hold it in a minute, my hypothesis would be confirmed!"
I think Parker got jealous when you fixed your off by one error with an error bar. He didn't have those. Also, he was off by more than one. And some other problems.
This prediction should be included in the app!!! What an amazing idea! Had 2 babies, used an app and it would be awesome if the app said something like: based on your contraction length, it looks like your baby will be born at xy
A steal. Bought it and will watch it once it has come down!
The DVD... not the baby... :P
" I present to you the most statistically significant baby ever" haha
That's quite the parker prediction there.
Congratulations to you both (wife and you) love your videos... You remind me of my son that I miss alot ... And that's ok... Keep up the great work.. enjoy the young ones as long as you can .. keep them asking why daddy... And you and your bride time for each other... You'll do well.. Ed in Phoenix writes
When the "picture" of Aster popped up I actually laughed out loud.
how did you make the two orange graphs to predict the birthtime with excel?
I would quite like to know this as well.
Insert tab -> Charts
It is a simple banana curve fit. Cavendish, in particular.
Comparing orange graphs to bananas is a fruitless endeavor.
+StraightOuttaJarhois I think Matt and Steve would be proud of that
I want to see this experiment repeated because being able to predict that accurately time of birth would be very useful
How did Steve Mould do those "standard deviation" lines?
Same question.
Did you find the answer?
Same question.
Done and Done. I've been waiting for this day in comedy.
Parker birth
GOD DAMN IT I'M LAUGHING SO HARD
Congratulations Steve! This got me thinking: to use the standard deviation as a measure of variability you must have had to calculate it as you would a moving average. Am I correct? Perhaps a better thing to do would be to estimate a state-space model where the mean and variance are estimated simultaneously as a function of continus time. It is an interesting problem. I will think about this some more.
Duplicated Steve Mould's graph in Excel:
- Initial columns: Time (T), Total Time Since Start of Contractions (TTSSC), Duration of Contractions (DC).
- Calculate: mean(DC) + 2 * stdev(DC) for upper bound & mean(DC) - 2 * stdev(DC) for lower bound (stdev using 10 or more previous values of DC)
- Calculate exponential trend parameters (m, b with LOGEST) of upper & lower limits using TTSSC & mean(DC) +|- 2 * stdev(DC).
- Apply LN(b) to create a new value b1.
- Use the exponential formula m*EXP(b1*value) to estimate values for upper and lower bounds for known values and future values.
- Calculate intersection of future values with a simple difference.
Do you mind sharing your Excel ?
The contractions were getting longer as she said "Whomst'd've"
Amazing and congratulations!
That was a great talk😂 genuinely entertaining
Very entertaining!! Thanks for something fun.
this is the guy who makes your girl laugh
this is the best video from you i have seen lol
add a link to the excel sheet
Every time you feel bad about your life, remember that there is a child out there and this is their dad...
I love how repsonsive the audience is
This is a comedy stand-up mixed with a Ted talk and I love every part of it
so i guess that is steve's favorite spreadsheet.
It would be interesting to have an app about uterine contractions, but there are other factors that are important too, like cervical dilation.
I'm just imagining him telling his wife to hold it in for 1 more minute
this is absolutely adorable
WHAT A CHAMP. 9 Months !
I Predicted When Next Train Will Come To My Station, I Just Watched The Train List
He is more of a stand up comedian
And I love it
That's a great idea for an app!
I'm just happy to hear you got somebody pregnant
Matt Parkers smile 1:39 just makes me happy.
steve mould is great
It's impressive how funny both you and Matt Parker are able to make a presentation on math. The third member of Spoken Nerd may be hilarious as well, but I haven't seen her presentation.
The third member is Helen Arney. I don't know if she has her own channel, but she's shown up on a few others.
Came for the interesting title, stayed for the hilarious storytelling
I bet you could tell whether it was hot water or cold water when they were filling the pool due to the viscosity of the water
This story is to be told for ever in the hospital. XD
imagine he's your science teacher, wouldn't that be great. I wish my teacher had that type of humor.
I've watched lots of Steve's videos, but I had no idea how straight up hilarious he is! (Or 'you are', if you ever read this Steve)
watching this for the 2nd time after 2 years and still wondering how high he is
Does anyone know what the app's name is? There's no way I'm not doing this on the off chance I have a kid / find someone to marry me / find a partner / etc.
bobidou23 contractions timer, it says so in the description.
You are never too young for doctor who!!!
it's not fair for you to have this much charisma
A man of many talents, excel and standup
The two people with their laptops open! I recognize them from YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED
Steven, you’re great lad. This is how education should be. 😂😂