Ukraine War Update NEWS (20240429a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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- čas přidán 11. 06. 2024
- Here is today's UWU NEWS giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
Del's open-source Russian loss stats:
onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?r...
Bill's stats dashboard: www.ukrainewarstatistics.com/
Merchandise for the A Tippling Philosopher blog network and CZcams channel. www.redbubble.com/people/john...
Buy me a coffee: www.buymeacoffee.com/GkxsyfQ
Paypal Donate: www.paypal.com/paypalme/johnn...
UA Supporter merch: uasupporter.com/atp
Check out this website of pro-Ukrainian inks:
www.heroyam.org/slava_ukraini
Discord: / discord
Videos/sources:
Hits/losses
x.com/gettylegion/status/1784...
verekerrichard1/s...
AndrewPerpetua/st...
WarVehicle/status...
GrandpaRoy2/statu...
KyivIndependent/s...
TWMCLtd/status/17...
AndrewPerpetua/st...
KyivIndependent/s...
gettylegion/statu...
EuromaidanPress/s...
daxe/status/17847...
naalsio26/status/...
Strikes
TWMCLtd/status/17...
EuromaidanPress/s...
TWMCLtd/status/17...
_____
0:00 Start
0:10 Hits/losses
16:03 Strikes
20:12 Other
_____
DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
1) These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
2) These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
3) All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
4) Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
5) Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
6) Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
7) Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
8) All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
9) Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Thank you
Hi Team, Jonno and all wellthinking others. Have a great week!!
Hi Peter and happy Monday. Guest dog went home and it's amazing I get paid to watch beautiful sweet dogs 🤗 I'm earning money for combat bandages for Ukraine 🇺🇦 ❤
You'll always be a hero to me, Jonathan.
Thanks Jon. Cheers
A great way to start the day. GOOD morning everyone and evening ☕
Good morning Bud ☕
Good Day JP, TEAM!!!!
Hello ☺💙💛
@@_Mary_M Hi!!!
Morning JP 👍😊
Thanks for the welcome Jonathan ... Happy to be here too.😀 Hi everyone 👋🌻
Hello 👋 sweetie ❤
Good morning, JP.
Thanks for all your work Jonathan. Respect.
Good morning 👍
Happy Monday 🤗
Good Morning Jonathan and the increasing ATP Team
Good morning Richard 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn and GTSY
Hi all, have a great week💛💙
Hello 👋 Asa 🌻
Hi Asa, happy Monday 🤗
Happy Monday, my dear brother!
On his live stream, Perpetua has repeatedly said that Ukrainian artillery units seem to have a general policy in place not to share videos on destroyed RUS (barreled) artillery. Every policy has its exceptions, of course.
.. but AFU gets notified … Thanks Johnathan for the update … 💙💛💙
Hi all! another birthday survived, friends kicked out of the house, and back to this following the war almost fulltime.
happy birthday!
@@ATPGeo Thanks!
Happy belated, Mika!
@@stevea2909 Thanks Steve!
Many happy returns Mika! 🎂 🥳 🎉 🎈 🎁 🎊 🫂 ❤
I think locomotives may not be a prime target as Russia has a well developed rail network, on which the military does rely. However, they likely have the manufacturing to replace locomotives somewhat easily. The control cabinets with their silicon may prove harder to replace, and be a lower risk target.
Thank you Jonathan ❤ Love to Team ATP ❤ Love to Ukraine 🇺🇦 ❤️ 🫂
Hi Nikki
Hi Nikki and GTSY👍
mornin Nikki
@@Finnishguy777 👋 😁 Hiya Tomi 🫂 ❤️
@@richardbennett8522 👋 😁Hiya Richard GTSY too! 🫂❤️
Welcome to ADD/ADHD Life JP!!!! I never sleep and my brain is always going 1000mph!!! Kinda sucks in that way. But does help when there is a million things going on and you need to get them all done or it can be easier to work in a Chaotic situation. Not for everyone, but at least for me. But I have 43 years experience at it.
HI Jason, one more thing common to us 44years same shit
@@Finnishguy777 You have ADD/ADHD as well?
@@jmtpolitico80 Yep pretty bad one too
@@Finnishguy777 Ya same here! Medication helps but I cannot take it cause of rules in the AFU, so I have been off my meds for just over a year now. Wish I was still on them though, I do have to say they give you the energy to do almost anything, non stop!
Hi Jason 🤗
Hi Team, hahaa im first, thanks Jonahtan, and have a nice week everyone
🥳
Good Day Buddy! Hope you have a good week! So I believe we are going to have a problem from that BladeRunner21577. I woke up to multiple messages from him just being a Idiot! Just another MONDAY!!!😉
@@greenhighlander7 Hi Mika!!!
@@jmtpolitico80 Hi JMT!
@@greenhighlander7 mornin all
Afternoon all, thanks JP.
Hi Don 🤗
I reckon they've just been reading my comments here about digging underground hangars with the Finns' help!
Thank you Legend of the Universe 🌌 ❤
Morning JP, Team and Subscribers🇺🇦
$100 Million about time Labour made a donation! 🇦🇺🇺🇦
What a nob
Looking forward to all the video's today keep up the great work on giving the information
10th 😁🧡🟨🟦🧡🟦🟨
467,469 ! 😂👍🇺🇦 !
Thanks for the update, JP.
I see all of Russia's transport vehicle losses, but troops are still being trekked to the front. I don't think they are walking.
🚜🚜🚜🚜 🚜 👋🇺🇦🇦🇺🚀👍
Hi Diesel 😊
Thanks JP for the hard work.
HEY - HEY - HEY!!!!!!!!!!!👏
👋
Hi Mark
Ukraine should sever the railway line from Astrakhan , this would slow the flow of Iranian armaments being imported via the Caspian Sea.
Let see you do this you made it sound easy
@@hgv1883 Look at your atlas, or Google Maps.
The railway bridge 30 miles North of Astrakhan.
At a place called Akhtuba, the truss bridge and other Buzan River bridges are perfect choke points.
Even if not totally successful, any action in this area is bound to stretch rus air defence assets even further.
@@hgv1883 Have tried to send you a long, detailed, explanation. However , Utube keep deleting it. As it's several paragraphs long, and goes into great detail I have , after 3 attempts , given up !
Have made attempts to send you a very detailed, long, reply to your question. I'm giving up after 3 attempts, as Utube is deleting them as soon as I post. !
With the F16s, they've not only got to disperse them, but somehow also do this with the servicing of the planes. That sounds a logistical nightmare to me. Ideally they would have underground facilities, but that would be very time consuming and expensive to create. I don't see how they can be "parked" in a NATO country without running the risk of widening the war.
Exactly.
It feels like Ukraine has some shells to throw around at last,,
In a discussion once Czar Poopliar actually quoted an Orc casualty figure very close to the recognised western / Ukraine quoted figure!!!
The actual proof is in the war. If the Russians have not suffered those losses, they could not be stopped.
Bring back the Boulton Paul Defiant, the British WWII 'fighter' with a mixed reputation. It was a fighter with a turret containing 4 x .303 Browning machine guns and would be perfect for shooting down drones. Just hope the Russians don't send up Me109's...
I'm a little surprised that Ukraine hasn't been offering a bounty for destroyed engines. $5,000 per proof of destruction. They are another piece of hardware that Russia can't replace while sanctions hold.
Ukraine did not lose the pilot, he was only out for a short while (wounded) callsign Karaya
And he got Hero of Ukraine after I think. 🙂
If I recall correctly, the Russian MoD list huge numbers as MIA, to alleviate their payments.
At Mariupol, they had mobile crematories burning the dead to minimize reporting killed in action. They reported them as missing.
Hey Jonathan about the artillery system that the general staff of Ukraine claims might also count in Mortar system 82mm ones or whatever the Russians are using those aren’t per say reflected in the stats of Andrew, about the counter battery fire, depending how they evaluate it might be we shot and then see from a drone team if there is something burning / exploding where they had shot I could very well be wrong I am no expert at it’s just an idea of my general understanding, keep up the good videos man much love!❤
i keep forgetting this
I would expect the ratio of wounded to KIA to be less than 4 to 1 for Russian as it seems they do not prioritise assisting the injured. In a meat wave any serious injury is fatal. 4 to 1 may be more valid to Ukraine.
We are no where near paying our share compatible to much smaller countries.
No body? No benefits. Even pay !( You ! were declared missing in action or dead. )
Johnathan
The Artillery category, from my understanding, includes mortars. There are many mortars in units per main artillery tubes.
The category, for clarity, could be called “Indirect Fire” instead of Artillery.
Artillery is probably miss leading. Hope that makes sense… many more mortars destroyed per day, and they cause significant annoyance…
i keep forgetting this - yes, larger mortars
Mortars *_ARE_* artillery, as are guns and howitzer. Don't split hairs where they are not different.
Jonathan, great as always, but the Perpertua list kind of bothers me. For me, this does not tell us anything about loss ratios, but it is just losses that happened to be caught on film. At max it would tell us a story about drone usage and the propensity to post these films on social media. Would be interesting to hear your comments on this.
Listen to my live with Daniele the other day. We discuss this.
R.E. enemy artillery losses per counter battery fire and not seeing results: it seems to me when you stop receiving incoming salvos you can surmise the opposing guns have been eliminated.
It's good to see all of the losses, yet Russia still seems to be able to field a lot of artillery. They are gaining ground at a more rapid pace. One site claims Russia has lost almost 80% of their artillery. Seems like it's too high. Any thoughts?
Sorry now Johnatan but that BBC figure is way off, I know the info is scant in a lot of areas in Russia, but you could defo X that No by 3 after 2 years of attrition.
Hello Jonathan, thank you for your Ukraine update. I've been in London (yes--London) for the last few weeks. My hotel had a very nice afternoon tea, but I seriously recommend skipping tea and going straight to the Martini bar. Having missed your videos for several weeks, I was forced to listen to non-JMSP news coverage of the Ukraine war, where it is being reported that the war in basically lost for Ukraine due to a lack of manpower, and as evidence, the recent Russian gains across the frontlines. Any thoughts? I was asking about Ukrainian manpower over a year ago, and after a year of attrition, it seems we have arrived at a critical crossroads for Ukraine. While lots of aid is finally flowing, there are not enough soldiers to pull triggers.
The lame stream media is hunting for sensational news. The line being unchanged is not sensational, so they spice it up. Fair and accurate are long gone. $$$
mobilisation is one of the most important challenges now, and has been for way too long. Sort it out, and they will be in a much better position.
jonathon do you know why the glsdb 's didnt work ? as i had heard they had been sent back
Something to do with the dirt on ground and electronic warfare interfered too much with them Jake broe put a link to the main department of defence guy explaining what went wrong with them
@@shurely2559 thank you
A lot of artillery system been knocked out. How many of then have been found with help of weapon locating systems (WLS)? For example SAAB Arthur. Nobody talks about this.
Artillery count: I think you got it right. Counter battery kills would not be counted unless there was a spotter drone in the area.
Mediazona/BBC also does NOT include DNR/LNR KIA. They have been hit hard.
Diesel Loco are important because much of the main lines are electric. Diesel loco are needed to go to remote areas that are not electrified, like closer to front lines.
I also suggested using light aircraft to attack drones. In the Odessa area the could be used out over the Black Sea, before the drones reach land. As well as trying to shoot them down they could try the "cow tipping" tactic used in Britain against the V1 bombs. The plane flies beside the drone, sidles in and uses it's wing to tip the drone. Drones have simple guidance systems that cannot recover from this loss of stability, so they spin and crash. They don't actually have to touch, the air flow over the 2 wings is enough.
The Krasnodar Krai airport: Another site has identified that the destroyed glide bombs were stored in a separate area a few hundred yards off to the nominal "left" of the 2 hits in the picture you were pointing. There are other pictures, "zoomed out", that show all three hits at the same time.
Do you know how much the motorbikes the russians are using are worth. Obviously because of their speed and smallness much harder to hit with drones than tanks bmps btrs?
Russia is massive and have a massive amount of tracks, I don't think they have a massive amount of trains.
Has anyone thought of giving Ukraine special binoculars
You have to master the arts of goat sodemy to march out of Putins special Universe!
Hi Jonathan, thanks for the update. My question, like many others, is how long can Russia sustain such armour loses? In WWII the Axis greatly underestimated the Allies manufacturing of aircraft, armour and troops, especially Russia's development of armour. At what point do we look at these large numbers e.g. 14,000 APV's, and start to consider they're over-exaggerated (acknowledging your caveats) or does Russia have far more armour (and able to produce much more) than we the West, thought possible?
Russia doesn't really produce anything, more than 90% of the war material they "produce" is actually repaired and modernized Soviet stockpiles, and even those Soviet stockpiles are not endless, many military experts have generally estimated that Russia can withstand equipment losses like this for at most two more years, and that may be over the top, I have heard from more than one source that, for example, Russia cannot replace the artillery destroyed in the war at all, these Soviet stockpiles are the only reason why they can even continue the war, and as I already said, those stocks will not last forever, and if russia is seriously preparing for a confrontation against nato, then they have to plan to leave equipment for that as well, they can't use it all only in Ukraine
AP last night was suggesting to next June for many armour types. Lots of caveats though - armour will get progressively worse as they are bringing the crappier and crappier stuff out of storage. And I think you will see a steady declining use thereof as we are already seeing.
@@ATPGeo Thank you for the reply.
Hi tech V lo tech a bit like the film Independence Day they can't be jammed, all manual - Bullseye!
I see that the US have bought 80+ Soviet era planes from Kazakhstan. I wonder how they intend to use them?
Decoy? I guess it might have been cheaper to buy a junker airframe than to build one? Gut the insides for salvage and leave the airframe parked somewhere?
They released numbers before 50000+ so is the 50000 today a total over 100000?
Part 1/3
Hi Mats 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn
Hey JP, does your partner know you lie awake at night thinking about Colby Badhwar?
Heh
I think if the casualty figures were accurate, there would be a much bigger outcry from the Russian population. Over 400000 wounded and coffins returned, would certainly be noticed. I assume relatives care, but you don't see much except for a few isolated protests from wives. Strange to me.
Well Ukraine will need to train a lot of pilots and the trainees need to get in lots of air hours before they graduate to jets
So why not overfly Ukraine seeking and shooting down drones rather than just wasting fuel circling around in training airspace ?
Nothing like gaining confidence from downing a dozen or more drones in your first 200 air hours .
Russia is very unlikely to be flying propeller driven aircraft over Ukraine and most surveillance drones could be hunted down & eliminates using bi-planes .
Bi planes are dirt cheap to make & maintain, easy to fly but have a low ceiling .
Even better is they have no canopy so the pilot & gunner have a very wide field of view which makes spotting a bit easier and weapons like nets & shotguns with bird shot could be used .
If russia wants to use WW I trench warfare tactics on the ground, no reason why Ukraine can not use WW I weapons to beat them in the air .
A $ 200,000 surveliance drone downed with a 1/2 dozen $ 2.00 bird shot round sounds like good war economics to me particularly if it is part of routine flight training.
Based on the footage of this war and russian soldiers complaining I'd be tempted to say kia:wia is 1:2 at best. Leading to about 160k kia. The ratio is most likely even far worse.
Censership again, it is why I stop watching for two week’s before ?
eh?
If you are talking of deleted comments - everyone is having their comments deleted. Seems to be random YT.
My comments get deleted saying happy birthday to someone, plus they get deleted on my book club comments, not only on this channel.
Check to see if your phone or computer has been infected with a malware ?
1000 russian vehicle and 100 ukrein vehicle distroid.. ? How is this possible 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Ukrein have a super power?😂😂😂😂😂😂
500000 dead plus wounded stop downplaying the numbers
It doesn't matter what the numbers are. The Russians have too few troops to take ground in two years. *_THAT_* is what counts...
467,469😵🇷🇺soldiers⚰️🪦 ! New Magic Number 500,000😵🇷🇺 soldier’s⚰️🪦👍🇺🇦 !