How The Housing Crash Will Happen
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- čas přidán 19. 05. 2024
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THE 2024 HOUSING MARKET:
Home prices have just recently hit yet another all-time high in November after rising for 10 straight months - more and more Americans are beginning to rush back into the housing market with record down payments - and nearly HALF of those surveyed on Twitter said that they were likely to buy a house in the next 2 years.
WHY THE REAL ESTATE MARKET MIGHT DECLINE IN 2024:
1. LOW AFFORDABILITY
CNN reported that “38.6% of the median household income is required to make the monthly payment on the average home purchase” - and, typically a home is considered “affordable” if the monthly cost is less than 30% of the area’s median income. This, unfortunately, has resulted in 99% of the United States being unaffordable for the average American making $71,000 per year.
2. HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT
Since 1955 - "the U.S. economy has always experienced a recession within two years from every quarter in which inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5%, as they are today.”
3. CHANCE OF A RECESSION
According to Realtor.com, “A recession in 2024 would likely weaken housing demand beyond its current low level, and if it were significant enough, it could stress existing homeowner finances enough to prompt some to sell, reversing the supply-demand balance that we’ve seen in the last few years.”
4. EVERYONE THINKS IT'S A BAD TIME TO BUY A HOME
Only 16% of people believe that now is a good time to purchase a home, which is a record low.
WHY THE REAL ESTATE MARKET MIGHT CONTINUE GOING HIGHER:
1. LOWER INTEREST RATES
Jerome Powell indicated that we’re likely going to see 3 rate cuts in 2023 of 25 basis points each, which would take the federal funds rate down to 4.5%, and likely leave us with mortgage rates leveling off around the 5.5-6.5% range.
2. MORE SELLERS IN 2024
Recent research suggests that the “30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to 5.5% is the "magic mortgage rate" that would be enough to push more home buyers to purchase homes.”
3. THE US IS NOT IN A RECESSION
According to Jerome Powell, the economy is gearing up for a Soft Landing in 2024 because inflation is largely under control, GDP is strong, and consumer spending is robust.
4. SEASONALITY COULD BE THE ONLY DROP IN PRICES
Even though most seasonal pricing tends to be a difference of 8-12% off the sales price, some locations, like the Northeast and Great Lakes, lead the nation with a “22.1% variation between summer and winter sales,” which means right now could be a good time to negotiate.
5. HOUSING, LONG TERM, TRENDED HIGHER (SO FAR)
Over the last 100 years, housing prices have steadily increased as new construction constantly lags the growing population.
HOW TO PREPARE:
1. GET A 30 YEAR MORTGAGE
A 30-Year mortgage gives you the flexibility to still make a lower minimum payment and save the extra money if the circumstances require it.
2. GET A FIXED INTEREST RATE
This prevents your payments from suddenly being increased 5-7 years in the future if interest rates are somehow higher than they are today.
3. REFINANCE IF RATES GO DOWN
This allows you to save more money on your monthly payments.
4. AVOID SELLING IFYOU DON’T NEED TO
Ideally, by not selling, you’ll have the time to ride out any fluctuations in price long enough for them to recover and bring you back to profitability.
5. ALWAYS KEEP CASH ON THE SIDELINES - JUST IN CASE
The reality is, anything can come up, at any point, that will end up costing you money.
6. ONLY BUY A HOME YOU CAN COMFORTABLY AFFORD
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Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further - enjoy! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dF1G8ATARTjWwjhyPoiaus3iCHHbIrZjnWy4JUllvcs/edit?usp=sharing
Didn’t ask + I’m 100% better than Graham ☠️💀⚡️⚡️😁🔥
Is a crash supposed to be bad thing or what
There won't be a crash. These clowns have been using this clickbait since 2021.
Dude!!! I’m astonished how piss poor your real estate advice/knowledge truly is. SMH🤦♂️
@@mr.liquifier8343 if you are in a selling position it's bad . But if you are buying, it's like black Friday in the property market. The best sale was in 1929 when people could buy properties at a 69 % discount.
I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.
Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
could you to recommend this particular manager?
Credits goes to " Sonya Lee Mitchell " one of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I have a 2.375% on a 20 year mortgage with 18 years left. I'm not touching that with a 100-ft pole. Here's to surviving whatever's coming at us in 2024.
Luck ass
I should have been buying a house instead of being in the 7th grade.
@@PrinceTroxfast reply
Me too. On a 75k mortgage
Damn nice! Bidenomics will sort out the ding dongs.
Watching Graham feels like getting messages from an alternate reality where markets crash every two weeks.
Exactly 😂😂😅😅 ... Jst wanted to write smth like... what number of crash this is...😅😅 But one day he will be right ... One day sure 😅😅
right ! the market needs to crash already. get it over with
It's a numbers game. He only has to be right once for everyone to be like "zomg he was right!" 😂
😂😂😂😂 like every other scrub predicting crashes all year; everyone and their grandmother predicted major crashes and recessions and of course the herd gets it wrong again
@@cross-bit He and Robert Kiyosaki will be right one day.
My Dad bought 1/3 Acre lot and built a house on it in 1974 for 40K.
His annual salary as a PhD at a local college was 12K.
He raised a family and paid the mortgage on a single salary.
He sold it in 2008 for 450K.
Those days are gone.
Everyone is F'KD
Based on your argument we had the price of housing at 3.5x salary. For great residential neighborhoods you are maybe at 6x salary. How are we “Fk’d”? People want to pay that premium for the socioeconomic benefits. If you don’t want higher quality schools, industry and services you can live somewhere that costs 1x salary.
Women didnt work back then, on average. Today they do. If you don't have two incomes you're way below average these days.
@@ikhbjhbkm5 yeah and we all see how horrible it is to let the government's public schools raise your children.
I bought an affordable condo back in 2016, but with rising insurance, HOA fees, and property taxes, its unaffordable. The interest rate is 3.25% but the cost of everything else is rising fast. No one talks about that part.
Great points. And exactly why citizens need to get involved LOCALLY to maintain control and influence in their best interests. Run for an HOA board position, attend your local city/county/school district board and commission meetings and SPEAK UP when public comment is opened up. Better yet, run for seats in those orgs. Too much at stake anymore for us to not be involved in our own governance.
@@FRMN8R_T4R I am going to run for the HOA's Secretary position in April, this madness has to stop
They are coming for your houses/ property and now your cars, one way or another whether you like it or not. The hard part is determining just who exactly "THEY" are.
Never get involved with HOA
this is why i bought a house. no condo for me
In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living..
A recession as bad as it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you're careful and it can also create volatility giving great short-time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advice but get buying, cash isn't king at all at this time..
Many ppl are choosing AMZN as their "Stock of the yr" I agree it has a chance to be. But my question is what stocks can be the next APPL in terms of growth for the next decade? I have $250k ready money to invest for long term gains, and my goal is to retire comfortably rich.
John Desmond Heppolette truly appears to be knowledgeable in this field. After conducting a Google search of his full names, I thoroughly reviewed his web page, including his resume, and qualifications, which were truly impressive. I took the initiative to leave him a note and have booked a call session with him....
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Some of this is info above is not accurate. I am a real estate agent in NC. Buyers have not significantly overpaid since mid to late 2022. Most of 2023 there were not really appraisal problems (houses mostly appraised for above the purchase price). Due to high rates in the second half of 2023, this helped the situation because many buyers left the market, preventing as many multiple offer situations and preventing overpaying for homes and appraisal problems.
The rates are expected to drop this year, which will bring an influx of buyers back into the market, driving prices up. So your statement about dropping prices and lost equity is not correct.
I bought my last home in 2006 for 196k. At the time I was told "Don't worry, you can refinance in a few years with better loans". By 2012 it was worth 60k. I paid on it for 16 years before selling it for what I owed (had to sell when I moved cause rent wasn't even 50% of the mortgage payment). I was upside down on my home for 14 years straight. Refinancing was never possible. It is absolutely possible to buy at the wrong time and have it take decades to financially recover.
Side note, there is no shortage of homes. Only shortage of homes for sale. There are currently 15 million vacant homes in the US.
Love to see where these 15 million vacant homes are hiding. Ha
That 15 million makes up about 10% of housing but it’s still including vacant rentals and homes being renovated so the percentage of homes that are vacant and not being used is actually lower. There is a housing shortage that can’t be denied.
You can, but its unlikely. Im not sure where you lived, but the vast majority of the US recovered by 2015
@@Philippinesbound42they're not hiding. They're in plain site and we're reported kn the census. There's maybe some additional vacant ones hiding that weren't reported. Most of them are rentals competing to find a renter. A few are owned by speculators or someone who has moved out while renovating their home. There's not a shortage of homes There's just a shortage of homes for sale as rising inflation drove higher demand for buying homes instead of renting them. It is now cheaper to rent than own well see how long the trend of rising home prices lasts...
What is it worth today?
I really appreciate all the CZcams financial gurus who have accurately predicted all 36 housing market crashes that have happened in the last six months. I know it takes a lot of work to make those sad face/lighting strike/house on fire/fed chairman’s laser eyes/ chart pointing down with no context thumbnails. Keep up the good and honest work.
........
you probably would have been thankful if they made 36 videos in 2005. and that doesn't mean they were predicting 36 crashes, just one. and it happened. and it will happen again.
@@seanoconnor8138 I wouldn’t have seen any of this doom and gloom stuff in 2005 because there wasn’t a perverse incentive algorithm that rewards content creators for posting clickbait thumbnails and headlines that prey on concerned people. Negative emotions are addictive and content creators use sensationalism to drive clicks and make ad revenue off of decent hard working people like yourself who only want to be informed. Believe it or not, people who talk positively and help people navigate the market realistically don’t get put in to your suggestions at the rate of all the doom sayers. I’ll tell you what’s going to happen this year: rates will go down, average prices will drop a little each month, inventory will loosen up in the spring, and people who want to buy their first home will have a happy election when the candidates are falling all over themselves to say they will be the one to improve the affordability of housing which will increase public confidence. What there won’t be is a “collapse”.
Dude you totally nailed it with this comment. I'm going to steal it. Lol
Keep believing in the corrupt US markets.
Housing market is going to crash cause I'll be closing on a home this friday. You're welcome America!
Congratulations, and it’s not going toncrash
Never buy at the top of the market. I wish you well but people like you are the actual problem. If we all just said these houses are overpriced we’re not buying the prices would crash but unfortunately people aren’t financially savvy . My house and rental properties are paid for but I would still like to grow even further but I refuse too in this market
@@petejablowski2123for some of us the mortgage is much cheaper than throwing our money away on renting.....we wanted to wait it out but bought back in June....
@@jesse_-the market has always crashed lol .. and it's more unaffordable now then ever why would it level off. More ppl are losing there homes more then ever in history
Unless you got a unicorn Ninja loan I'm guessing you can afford what you overpaid for
The worst part of this housing market is having to pay top dollar for properties that aren't worth the prices. Houses that aren't worth $100k selling for $450k and so on. It is literally unbearable. IMO, location is truly the key to any real estate investment. If the market falls, location might be able to save people from big losses. Great locations recover faster from downturns than bad ones.
"Everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it"
You need a better understanding of money. The house is worth so much because your dollar is worth so little. It's not that complicated really.
Its really sad to see.
If they really are "worth $100k" and not $450k, then why don't you just go build a house for $100k since it's worth that to build it right? Lol
Almost everything is overpriced, houses aren't remotely the worst culprit but are the most noticeable since a 10% markup may mean tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars vs an extra dollar on grocery items.
Insurance escrow and HOA fees are also going up for people who own right now. I wish we could go back to having all housing costs being only 25% of our income
If you bought a house 20 years ago your payment would have stayed the same. As for insurance I paid 800$ a year when I bought my first property. Insurance is now 2000$ not terrible for 20 years.
We all want that and the government who works for US has to do it's job and work on it to make it happen.
Yeah, I can’t imagine how much easier the older folks had it.
AMS300K has all the fundamentals to achieve 100x. Great to see exposure like this. When the community grows and comes together this will fly!
You are one of the most sophisticated and brilliant CZcamsr/content creator I watch, and 1million percent the very best in finance. I appreciate all of your content thank you for AMS380H much love from Chicago
That's why I use Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX exchange. Because Graham said I should.
Asking vs Selling prices are different metrics.
The only thing selling in my area (NW Arkansas) are
"House prices have to come down to avoid a crash" -- isn't that exactly what a crash is?
That said, I just don't see why people would be dropping prices on homes below where they are now. Locally, it costs about $200/sqft to build. Most older houses are selling from 225-250/sqft, which is roughly what it costs to build your own house. Ie, the market price of the house just isn't very different from the cost to build. Which means that people who are selling these homes are only going to have the option of moving somewhere smaller...so...why would they sell?
Our problem is low inventory.
We were looking but gave up and locked down a rental.
I'll buy property and build my own house rather than risk getting massively upside-down in a high interest loan on a run down crap hole listed at an astronomical price.
The only way prices come down is if inventory skyrockets AND interest rates stay high due to a massive number of foreclosures and a deep recession.
Love the AMS300K content. I think this project is just as essential as HBAR and they both will be great movers
All of them are really nice picks. But the potential of project that elegantly combine blockchain and AI is Amazons AMS380H and should not be overlooked, I guess. Among them, this truly tackle real-world problems and have vibrant ecosystems, like Aiwork.
DOOM tubers have been calling a crash for YEARS. STILL WAITING!!!!
They say it again and again until the day they get vindicated. Hoping people ignore or forget all the times they got it wrong.
Recently sold our house and got an all cash offer after being on the market for 36 hours from a first-time homebuyer. We relocated for my job and decided to rent instead of buying so we could take our time finding a home. Well, every time we schedule a showing, the house goes from for sale to pending (not even contingent) after only being on the market for hours. Even though we're off season (especially being in the Midwest), houses are going quickly still.
This video overlooks the fact that these increasing housing valuations is not an indication of "rising asset prices", but instead merely the consequence of monetary inflation associated with ALL purchases. For decades U.S. money printing didn't dramatically impact inflation, as long as "trade expansion" continued to grow with China. Then, at least partly due to COVID and partly due to China's growing hostility, that "trade expansion" with China slowed down. That slow-down, coupled with insane "COVID relief" checks...kicked off what will easily be a decade of sawtooth inflation (just like the 70's).
AS A CONSEQUENCE of all this, we're not going to see housing "crash" the way we did in 2009+...precisely because, as already stated, the price of everything will go up regardless of other circumstances.
High inflation is terrible, but we need to avoid mass deflation too. Another Great Recession would be devastating.
THIS
We are about to turn our construction loan into a mortgage and we are gonna do a 5yr ARM. Would take 1 1/2 years to get our money back out of getting the points down. I think the interest rates will come down enough in that time to then refinance and then we can do a 30yr loan
Wrong thanks for coming out… nothing ever goes up forever and always has a drop in valuations. Furthermore wages which have not kept up with inflations means less buying power. Finally people are running out of money, even NINJA loans wouldn’t save this.
This video does not look at or overlook anything. It's just empty calories, nothing but clickbait. I wish youtube would do something about this stuff. As much as everyone hates Elon Musk, at least he is TRYING on X with the whole community notes thing. CZcams is actively rewarding scammers here.
I hope you are right about AMS380H ? Thanks for the highly educational video. Keep up the good work -
Home prices relative to incomes are too high. That is the key metric, and it always corrects...always.
Being homeless and trying to find a way gets really really hard. But hopefully I get to make things happen soon.
If true, brother you need to stop watching CZcams immediately and get a job and a bunch of roommates.
Even homeless people have down time Mac..@@Mactakun
good luck bro XD in the same boat for now, still trying to find a job again
Get your cdl you will never be homeless again
10:14 Graham, can you please make sure each axis is labeled on the charts you insert? Bonus points if you can include a source. I love your videos, but once in a while we get a chart like this one that I find difficult to make use or interpret correctly of without better labeling.
Here's a few major expenses I had last year on my house - which ill add, is a year my wife was off on maternity so one income:
Panel upgrade- $3500
New furnace (heat pump) and AC - $13500 (lucky timing got me $7500 back from govt)
Water heater - $2500
Luckily we spend less than 20% of our income on our housing costs (we live in Toronto) so we had a large sum sitting around for just these issues. Don't assume the mortgage is the only payment you'll make, you WILL quickly find yourself in real trouble just to keep your house functional.
We make around 13k a month after tax, drive cheap cars and we aren't buying an upgrade (~5k month mortgage) because its so expensive. I wouldn't listen to anyone telling you to buy right now unless you NEED a place and not WANT a place...
hedge funds bought up all the housing and jacked up the rates to needing 60k a year for a one bedroom apartment when most jobs only pay 35-40k a year. greed on the part of hedge funds and investment bankers has been the cause of just about every crash.
Dude median household income is almost 68k a year lmao they should be fine lol hedge funds KNOW how much you can pay for rent for sure 😂😂😂
@@jameslocklear5298 and most of those are two income house holds. i said jobs pay not household income. not to mention the longterm negative economic and societal by kids in dual income households being raised by daycare and school. niether of which teach basic life skills or morals.
Don’t forget real estate agents don’t help either they are a hair above car salesman
yeah, not going overboard and buying something you can comfortably afford is super smart advice. Keep sharing man!
I'm hoping to buy a house before my 60th birthday. 🤞🏼 I have 23 years to save a 20% down payment. By that time it should only be around $600,000! 🤮
Fha loan
Lol your down payment is gonna be $600k
@@nrm3247 In 23 years. At this rate. Maybe. 🤷🏼
between the two, I think I would still support Amazons AMS300K : technically speaking, years ahead of the competitors,Brand power, easy development, flexible with source languages, quick tx...
Between the two what???? Stfu lol
@@Langstonnn gram puts the bare minimum effort into his channel, so he doesn't clean up the comment section at all (bc he's too busy working on his next random fear mongering video to put effort into his back catalog)
@@von... This is supposed to be CZcams's job, Bucko
@@maloxi1472 they've proven time & time again they wont, & dont do a good job at this. All the CZcams creators that have my respect do some bare minimum to protect the portion of their fan-base who isn't intelligent enough to make the distinction themselves. For example, Gram could just make AMS300K a banned term & instantly this 30+ account bot farm would be thwarted - this would take approx. 15 seconds of effort. But keep coping & protecting Gram, Bucko.
Scammers
My three favorite channels: Graham Stephan, Stock Brotha, & How Money Works. Make my week complete! 🔥 🔥 🔥
Can you do a video on condo,home, and car insurance issues in CA and FL?! Prices are insane and what is going on in CA.
The problem I have is housing value keeps going up which keeps raising the property tax which turns into a 2nd mortgage...... thanks for the good advice!
Your right!! In Texas the state is inflating values to take every dollar of property tax. It’s a lose lose situation for a lot of ppl. 😢
property tax is a curse from satan
Exactly right. There are cheaply built tract homes in Los Angeles county that have property taxes of $12,000 a year!! An extra $1000 a month. Ridiculous.
I keep trying to tell people that! I plan on living in my house till I die so I don’t care if it goes up in value right now… it’s annoying because just since 2020 my mortgage has increased over $500 due to property tax… ugh
THIS right here is my problem too, yet it seems that the VAST majority of people don’t consider high home prices as it relates to property tax. For me I’m not afraid of the interest rates, those always vary. But locking in on a house with high home price just to be stuck with high yearly property taxes that’ll stay even after paying off the mortgage is just a huge no no for me.
I bought a home in 2006, it crashed yo about half, by 2015 it was 30k over what i bought it for. Today, its way more..... I moved out of state for a new job and have continued to rent it out. At one point i was eating 100$ a month to it, now the rent is alot more...
I pray all who read this have a safe & happy new year!
Grant great video as usual,I hope if there is a crash it will be short lived thanks for bringing us this valuble content ahead of the masses you are one of the main reasons I started my channel because I learned so much from you.
Nothing makes sense,most people are maxed out on credit and have almost no money but the stock prices and prices of homes keep going up 😮
Then get a loan and put it in stocks ! Or rent your house out ! Warning
Educational purposes only , not financial advice , 😊
Have you seen that Axios chart about housing shortage? Kinda scary.
Why aren’t we building more houses then? China has entire cities just empty, maybe it’s time the US goes into building mode.
They gotta build more!
Briggs there are tremendous housing gluts across major metro areas. Real Estate Mindset has been covering this boots on the ground for over a year now. Builders have inflated the housing market. They've got more units then they can sell. They built so many lots of master plan communities haven't even been finished. Please look this up for yourself.
@@nfuenmayor builders also aren't listing all their existing inventory on the MLS, so there's more inventory then there actually is. They want to make you believe there still a bad shortage to keep prices up.
@@nfuenmayorthe buildings China build are garbage and are built to artificially pump their gdp numbers . Those very same buildings are not safe for any type of use so they rot or are demolished.
And space is a finite resource and not all areas are worth building on.
Good video! I'm so ready for real estate prices to drop...
I don't understand why some financial youtubers diss your channel. Your videos are great entry points into macroeconomic themes.
I’ve actually bought Hero bread from Sprouts and I totally agree with Graham’s assessment.
Thanks for the video Graham! I am going to try to purchase another invest property in 2024 and every couple years after to dollar average with my portfolio.
You are partially right. There is a lot of cash on the sideline but you are talking about people in the top brackets only. Over 60% of the population are living pay check to paycheck. Credit card debt is through the roof. Most potential buyers don’t have the down money to buy a house at this point. To the extent rates come down only those in the top brackets will be able to buy, furthering the gap between upper class and middle class. The system will break and we will become a nation of renters. It won’t recover the way you think it might.
Currently, the renting bubble has burst. There is an over-saturation of rentals and many places are offering no down payments or free months of rent to get people to rent. This is a result of so many people buying properties with the intent to rent them out, along with house flippers now unable to sell and converting to rentals to cover their costs. Eventually, those leftover rentals will go up for sale when more buyers return to the market.
We're only likely to buy a house in the next two years care we're counting on a real estate crash. If houses don't get VERY affordable in the next 12-18 months, we might head out of country. It's so lame that house prices have been able to rise as high and for as long as they have. It's gross and messed up. We both work full time, take OT when we can and it's so hard to get to anywhere close to affording buying a house.
Preach. 👏 This market is nonsense.
I hear you.. homes have seen a slight decline in my area, and I'm taking advantage, although it'll be very difficult considering I'm single. I'll probably start my side hustle back up once I finish some renovations
I'm thinking of taking my 401k because at this rate if I don't get a house then I'll never get one wtf just waiting to finish paying off my car
You’ll pay US tax when you leave just so you know. Unless you revoke your citizenship.
@@baahbyjoe4850 that don't make no sense why would the money be taxed twice?
Appreciate you and all of the hard work you put into your videos!
The thing that has stopped me is the rate: I have enough saved to put down 50% on an OK home, or 10% on a really nice property with land, but because the rate is too high I would either end up paying for the house two times over (at least), or they won't accept my application because I apparently don't earn enough! 😅😅
It's absolutely insane and I'm lucky I can support my whole family renting (even though the rent payment is higher than what the mortgage would be) 🥴🥴
Why don't you just put 20% down on a regular home and then ride it out for a couple of years until rates go down and then refinance?
Let's not forget the property tax hike. Just check my bill. In a year, mine went up $617. And no, I didn't build anything new on my property.
Love your work, Graham.
Keep it coming!
Thanks for the video! It was interesting to look see the increase in house prices over the last ten years.
I locked in at 2.75% and knocked a couple years off the term. I’m not going anywhere. Just going to baton down the hatches and hope for the best.
Housing set aside for "affordable" units! Taxes and fees on home construction. In Colorado, it has become almost a $300K in combined water fees, permits, street and infrastructure fees, for a single family home. Now you know why its impossible to buy a new, modestly prices home. The lot and construction materials are the smaller costs! The gov is making more money than the developers! Progressivism sucks
OMG AMS300K !!! Dude seriously what a awesome video can appreciate how much work went into this quality quality quality much love from Australia
Hey Graham! New subscriber here. Love seeing the real estate data plotted to show the cyclical trends. Do you have any recommendations for databases? Much appreciated!
once everyone wants to sell their homes and realize that nobody can afford them prices will plummet
I really enjoy your channel! Could you do an episode on the top financial tips to teach your children from an early age? (Things you wish you had known growing up)
This!! I created a few videos about this topic too but would love to see what Graham has to say too
Been taking about a housing crash for years now. Houses seem to be going up still with no end on sight, just slowing down.
Real estate is at an unsustainable level right now as young people are priced out of their future. I honestly want a crash. The idea of renting forever is depressing.
That is why I went off grid. A home in clean fresh air surrounded by nature and no development that just creates depravity and corruption and endless problems.
Of course there won't be a crash. The average house in la is only $1.2M and can be yours for less than $10k/month. Millions will go buy them any minute now. Unemployment will go to zero! Interest rates will go negative. No problem at all (except your dollar will be tied to the Argentine peso). No crash at all. This time is different. This place is different. Everyone is above average! No crash here! What's a crash?
I just got to where I could afford a house. I could possibly still buy even with the high interest rates. But because of a combination of my current work/living situation and current rates, I’ll be waiting to look at buying until late 2024
:D Graham running on a treadmill while sun is shining into his eyes every time he jumps up is the best comedy bit of 2023. :D
Hilarious.
I get calls every day from people who have been evicted , and looking for a rental. People are struggling. Looks like a recession to me, but I’m no economist.
Nope just a lot of bums out there who finally got kicked out after the covid eviction freezes.
I'm seeing several new home construction sites in my area, and they seem to be going strong. Home buyers are "limited" to new construction homes because existing homeowners are waiting for interest rates to drop before selling and upgrading. The winners are the home builders because they're able to sell at the peak prices with less competition from home existing sales.
Means nothing without a pool of buyers! Buyers right now are backing out of deals faster than ever so you have that to deal with.
And building absolute garbage quality houses
When in the past have home prices doubbled in 2-3 years? You have a hell of a way to fall if anything moves downwards.
This is why if you have a home, sell now. You will never have another good deal like this. If you wait, your property will be worthless.
Hi Graham sure like to see economy get better. Too many housing crisis👍
US economy is in a depression and the US dollar has literally no value left. $1 = 0.43 cents or worse. Every Amerucan has to work 2.5 times or more just to keep up with cost of poverty living. Waste of time.
Happy Holidays, Graham! I appreciate the work you put into your content. Wishing you continued success in the new year.
I enjoy your knowledgeable insights that you share so freely. And I like your occasional inserts of humor. Keep up the excellent work! Thank-you!
If the Housing market does Crash I'm locked into a 2.89% December 2020 so all good in the hood here. 👍 Also as a part time Realtor I told all my friends who haven't bought a house and wanted to as soon as it crashes and prices bomb out we're going to buy some properties.
I'm in San Antonio and to combat these issues we are seeing a tiny home boom. Issue is they are building around upper mid class homes
I don't see why that's a problem.
As someone who refinanced at the very lowest and used points on the mortgage, I tell my wife she can bury me in the back yard.
You ain’t gonna have a wife bud
Housing market crash is absolutely coming.
Very strange times here in Ireland also. A lot of greed and huge rent/house prices for properties that are in terrible locations. We need a big reset in my opinion.
Quoting that Powell soft landing is where I get off this titanic!
Could you do a video on first time home buyers in this market? Like if you were in that place what would the steps you take, what would your thoughts be in that situation. I am also curious what a first time home buyer loan is hahaha
Right now with the high interest rates, you'd end up paying about a million dollars for a 550k house.
Right now, it's cheaper to rent.
"But at least I'd own something with a mortgage."
Yeah, you'd pay $1 million to own a 550k house 🤷♂️
You provide great content and advice. The only crisis I can see happening short term is if rates decline sharply next year. Inventory is still ridiculously low. Buyers will be coming out of the woodwork and inventory will never get a chance to rebound repeating the chaos of 2021/2022 where it was like the Wild West trying to buy a home. As a realtor I hope that doesn’t happen again.
What will cause FED reduce rate too fast - to make hyperinflation and overall economy collapse?
I don't believe they would intentionally collapse the economy. They backed themselves into a corner by raising rates to slow inflation. The fed ultimately lowers rates to give a boost to the economy when things slow down too much.@@PatamaGomutbutra
Lending is still tight and they’re not going to lower the quals even if rates come down. Banks are going to be very selective moving forward with lending.
Yeah I see rates coming down and housing going back up. At least in Vegas because there’s still a ton of demand and not a lot of inventory.
Actually, it could be beneficial. If rates go down it's true all these buyers will come out, but it also means all the potential sellers will finally be willing to sell as they can get a new low-rate mortgage to purchase their next property. The current high mortgage rate doesn't just stop first-time home buyers from purchasing, it also prevents home owners from selling as they don't want to get stuck with a higher payment for a cheaper property if they plan to downsize.
It's the calm before the storm.
From what I understand, everything seem to settle or the government want you to think that but is just like trying to hide your garbage under the carpet
“All Time Low” not the band 😂. Best reference ever 🎉
Seriously, all these predictions you've done, none of them came true, so it's more of a click-bait at this point than anything else.
All he does is clickbait and it's been like that for years
I have 1.5 years of residency left before I start earning 300-350k a year (if I stop at 40 hours a week) but with 400k in student loans I’m wary of having another large debt burden
That is good money if you can pay that student loan off quickly. Around $200k take home
What do you do ?
ER doc finishing training@@Deeznutsyourmom
@@Deeznutsyourmomresidency usually means Dr.....
@@Deeznutsyourmoman MD. A surgeon I'd imagine.
Hi, can you please add into podcast, so that we can listen while driving also
Graham I appreciate the information you provide on your channel. I also understand you need views to grow and need folks to click. Have you considered the earth is falling title and thumbs are getting too much or too often? I find myself now not watching those and I am sure am missing something that could help. Hope the feedback is taken as just that. I know I can move on but do not want to because I see the value.
Y’all gotta destroy the 👍 button. This man puts in the work 👏 👏👏
I have a small doubt. If the average median income in the US is roughly $74,800, which equates to $6,000 per month, and considering 15 year or 30 year fixed mortgages which cost around $3,000 per month, doesn't that mean that it's about 50% of household income instead of 39%, could you give an example to explain the article during the start?
Big facts
A one bed one bath, with a small yard is nearly 500k in my area. Any home cheaper is in a horrible and run down area with high crime rates, or it’s so far away it wouldn’t make sense for my work at all. They’re still like 350k plus. I hope it crashes hard. The prices aren’t realistic.
When it does if the prices are low on both stocks and real estate I’ll try to position myself to have the best outcome in dividends and a paid for home. Possibly some other real estate to have to flip when the economy returns to normal with real estate climbing more than what I paid for
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Victoria Wiezorek focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk , profit, and the code or the actual decision -making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch.
Wow. I'm shocked that you just mentioned and recommended Victoria Wiezorek. I thought I was the only one trading with her.
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.
@WIEZOREK105 💯 ..that's it
I don't trust this guy...
Sold all my REITs in the middle of the year and moved the money into stocks, and the market is doing real well right now. I do plan on buying a house eventually, and that's part of the reason I sold my REITs as I don't want to have too much exposure to the housing market
Pretty moronic, REITs are also locked into low advantageous interest rates and have been doing great lately. There are also many types of REIT, and the best time to buy is when everyone is selling. REIT also return the best returns when the share price drops.
@@nycupperes The stock market has done better in the time since I sold so I made the right bet. Plus I'm looking to buy actual real estate right now, that's why I sold. Putting 100% of your money into one sector of the economy like you is pretty moronic
I thought the retiremen of the Babyboomer was going to cause a glut of big homes and a resulting housing crash as retiees moved ot Florida. I think instead people have stayed in their homes and are working longer blunting any price decrease or crash.
I'm surprised you didn't mention mortgage recasting as an option for those who are already in a mortgage with a great rate. Sometimes you can create a snowball effect where you drop your monthly mortgage expense via a recasting, allowing more leftover cash per month that could be used in other places.
I checked with the bank I have mortgage and they refused to recast the mortgage
You gotta have a big chunk of change to recast a mortgage
@@Jack-russell103Yeah, depending on your lender, they will have a minimum requirement. My lender's minimum is $5000 and that's not including a $250 fee to do the recast.
@@KarthikRagunathanMD That's unfortunate. I know some lenders will do it and some won't. Some will also only let you do it once for the life of the loan while others will let you do it once a year.
Bank of America wanted 30 grandto recast mine and i only owed 70@@jonyoon
Amazing information as always! Thank you!
Any time!
Same information as always and years later no crash yet
yeah just lower interest rates aren't going to push buyers into the market. homes are still unaffordable at these price
*If anything…all those who were overcharging/made bad investments/and overpaid for homes in 2020 without inspections…will bottom out and have to sell.*
Rates need to keep going up to cool the prices off. They should have been more aggressive to begin with honestly.
The bigger issue is the rates are crushing the mid to lower classes, people can’t afford their basic needs so vehicles and credit debt is rising and defaulting. Buying a house is a luxury. So they couldn’t keep raising rates
This comment is correct. The rates should have been aggressively raised right away and held high until the economy recovered fully. The fed and government spending is a real problem.
Rates are not what will cool prices. when people can no longer afford the homes and are forced to sell as in a recession they get laid off and loose the house to the bank prices will come down because the inventory will be high. The inflation the fed caused in 2020 will stay with us forever all they can do is try to keep prices from going any higher.
you're confused
Well economy shouldn’t have been shut down for a virus w/ 1% death rate. And the decade of suppressed interest should not have been done, nor the bailouts that preceded it. And government should have never backed home loans, nor education loans. All compounded BS
People with mortgages would need to lose their jobs in record volumes to see a price decrease in home sales.
60million homes owned by boomers. Downsizing and forced sales
People are simply not buying homes right now because A.) They know prices are coming down and B.) Most can't afford to buy anyway.
@@em77775 *think they’re coming down
Boomers will start to die off/downsize rather quickly. They are a huge generation where many were home owners.
Good conservative advice given at the end. I'm sure there are exceptions but the majority need to treat their house as a necessary long term reality in their life and try to avoid risky and short-term decision making.
Been saying this all year dude. Eventually you’ll be right!!
I think the problem with expecting a crash is that we have the internet in which information spreads fast and so if we do have a crash it might be super short lived making it not seem like a crash at all.
no one expects a crash outside the people running the math and reviewing the facts.
We had the internet and youtube in 2008. Carleton Sheets was the guru back then. He got a lot of investment newbies to buy the high. I was one of them.
There will definitely be a crash. For the simple fact that homes are not affordable for younger people. So as all these old people start to age out of home ownership, their homes will go on market and there won't be enough buyers for these homes at the current pricing, the market will become saturated and prices will have to "crash" for these homes to sell. It has nothing to do with having the Internet information.
@@gregmulfort9577there’s more rich people than you think
@@gregmulfort9577 What about cost to build? Will it go down?
We will see one rate cut in 2024...probably around march or april. After that, monetary pressure will pick back up with a vengeance and we will get 2-4 rate hikes afterwards. And the fed knows that, it is the plan...create inflation, so the can create deflation...you have expansionary periods and you have contractionary periods, we will be in a macro contraction period for many years after 15 years of expansion. Especially since that 15 years of expansion produced almost nothing in the form of sustained economic development and productivity. Now they have to suck all the money out of the system, and that takes some doing...most of it is tied up in currupt businesses connected to our government and politicians, so there is a war between them, but the fed always wins.
It's nearly impossible to do 30% or less in California. Most people are around the 50-60%
And it's even higher for those who are renting
That’s facts