Can You Profit Betting and Trading at Short Odds on Betfair?
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- čas přidán 29. 06. 2024
- In this video you will find out how much profit you're likely to make either betting or trading on Betfair when backing at short odds. It is difficult to pinpoint exactly when odds become "too short", however from this video you will learn that the shorter the odds the worse the value is for you, both when outright value betting or from opening your trade at low odds as a Betfair trader.
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Disclaimer: This video is made for informational purposes and is NOT financial advice
This may be the best/most valuable betting video on CZcams (from man who has watched 1000 hours of them)
Glad you liked it!
I can't believe what an excellent series of videos you've made, and your presentation is superb. Very well done.
Thanks for the support Michael!
Apart from the juttery editing, this is another excellent & thought producing video. We seem to be on the same wavelength on just about everything [that I have seen so far]. A regular & "intelligent" video series is very rare on you tube, from what I have seen so far you are managing to do it very well. Thanks for the content.
Thanks for the feedback Colin!
At the end of the day it all comes down to your strike rate against the odds
If you only back even money shots (2.00) then as long as you are right more than you are wrong then you're in profit
A 40% strikerate at evens is losing money, a 60% strikerate at evens is making you a 20% ROI
If you back 1.10 shots you need a 91% strikerate before you become profitable
Hi Shaun, What you say is true of course, the key difference I try to highlight in this video is that even if you have a strike rate high enough to be profitable, the lower the odds you go the less valuable it becomes.
In the example of backing at odds of 1.10 with a 91% SR, using £100 stakes for 100 bets you would expect to make a total of £10 (10p per bet).
If you took a similar example of backing at odds of 4.0 (20% implied probability) you would only need a 21% SR to be profitable, however over the same one hundred £100 bets you would expect to make £500 (£5 per bet).
It is the same 1% edge, however at lower odds the returns are barely worth it compared to higher odds betting.
Hope this clarifies.
Kie
Ah yes...I noticed that it took very little to move the odds when they were very high and that they moved at a greater margin than very low odds. Thanks for putting it in maths. Very good info here...subed
Absolutely mind boggling! 🤯 Hands down the best betting instruction video i wish I saw years ago!! Would’ve saved soooo much money. 🤣😢
Very good video. Hoiwever I have found over many years that there is actually unexpectedly good value at backing at very low odds (though not in play). Backing at 1.05 gives an implied probability of around 95 per cent. the real probabiility over time in my records is more like 97-98 oer cent. This is in certain football leagues only.
Hi Simon, I'm very happy that you have been able to find value backing at such short odds, it seems like have found yourself an edge there. However in general terms most of the time I believe that rarely is there value at these low odds.
@@KieMillett You're right that there is probably greater value at higher odds but since I started crunching the numbers I've found a few different edges in some unexpected places!
Very useful information. Thank you.
Thanks for watching, I'm glad you enjoyed!
I agree…this guy has provided very informative info in the various videos on his channel and well worth a view..
Is there a program that can scan different horse racing odds live? I know it's slightly off topic but if there was and it could catch low price horses as the market opens you could maybe lay horses such as 1.1 for minimal liability.
Best to spread ur bets like get some on 1.5 some at 2.00 some at 6 etc
Short odds are valuable eg if a team wins 80 percent at odds 1.3 u will be profitable long term simple
apart from rebelbetting, do you know any software that finds value quotes for betfair exchange?
Can you make a video how to find the right price for a football team to win based on previous performance. In one word- how many games are enough to take into account to reach an accurate xG. Thanks
I do plan to make a video in the future on modelling football match odds based on both previous performance and xG. In terms of the number of games to get an accurate model, in general terms more data is obviously better, however the older the data is the less relevant it becomes. I don't believe there is an exact number of games you can use to accurately price football odds, football is too variable to be accurately modelled in that way.
A model is just a model, yes it is an indication of what the odds should be based off previous data which is very helpful for you as a trader, however there are other things to consider when assessing football match odds, including incentives to win (would a draw suit both teams), the styles of play of the two teams and how that may play out on the pitch, the football calendar (does one of the teams have an important champions league match midweek which they might prioritise), and general football knowledge. All of these things are difficult to factor into a model which will generate odds for you, this is what makes football trading difficult, as if it was possible to 100% accurately price football match odds everybody will be doing it.
@@KieMillett an advise...how many seasons to analyse..last 5 plus the current one and their h2h games.. I'm using a Poisson model to get the real price but I'm using only current season which is not so accurate
xG is irrelevant and a load of bollocks. Hth 👍
Great video but I was wondering if you know any good books where the mathematics of betting on the Exchanges is taught, thanks in advance.
Joseph Buchdahl books seem good. I have just started consuming.
@@KieMillett thanks for the response and I'll certainly check him out, thanks again
If you use the Kelly criterion then you shouldn't bet as much on the 20% odds as the 90% odds. Kelly(90, 87) = 0.9 - (0.1/(1.0.87 - 1)) = 23% of bankroll. Kelly(20, 17) = 3.7% of bankroll. So your expected profit for the same bet size is 6 times as much, but you should only be betting about a sixth as much.
Funny you put Brighton v man city. Yesterday I lay man city@ 1.37 vs brighton.
Hi Nayib, do you mean laying Liverpool against Brighton or laying Man City against Palace. Either way both games are evidence of short odds selections not winning.
I use betpro horse game and Greyhound how change rate odds help me
I still double chance strong Teams with a nice momentum ND history 😂, + a little risk 1 or 2 match 6.5 to 10.0 added to the tip
Good luck mate, hope the strategy works for you!
👍🏻
I’d be laying the winning team, not backing the winning team - surely that’s just common sense!
Not for most people, most people are attracted to the short odds unfortunately
Bro i made my 50$ bank to 1000$ in like a month but then decided to bet all the 400$ in a 1.09 bet and lost:( haha, i realized that taking ''risks'' is not that bad
I HAVE A GUY HE IS NOT GOOD HE IS A VERY VERY GOOD AND THANK TO GOD FOR THIS GUY I'M PLAYING LAST 9 MONTHS TOTAL MATCH PLAYED 32 AND PASSED 27 AND LOSS 5 MATCHES ODD ARE ABOVE 5+
ALL FULL FILED IN MY LIFE NO NEED MORE I'M ENJOYING
BUT STILL PLAYING IN SMALL AMOUNT FOR ENJOYMENT PERPOSE
THANK YOU
£1 min is too high for me
First of all, congrats on the channel and your effort to help traders/bettors. However, from a purely mathematical point of view, in this particular video you are wrong. The trap you fall into is the fact that you put in the same basket two things that look similar but they are not. In case someone estimates the true probability of an event at 90% (3% more than the 87% the market offers him), then his "achievement" is less important than someone's who estimates the true probability of another event to be 17% and not 20%. In other words, what you did not take into account is that what matters is the point from which this movement begins. The "90-87" variation in estimation of the probability is much weaker than the "20-17" and therefore you cannot equate them. That's the reason why you calculate the expected value of favorites much lower than the expected value of the underdogs which is mathematically absurd. Take roulette as an example. If you bet €100 on the reds (low odds), how much is the EV? It is 18/37*100-19/37*100=-2.70. If you bet on a single number (high odds)? Well, it's just the same (1/37*3500-36/37*100=-2.70). The EV has nothing to do with how likely events are.
This is gold
Thanks
Subtitle indonesian please
Sorry, don't know the language.