What do you think of Peter Zeihan's forecasts regarding China's stability, world agriculture, and other issues of interest? czcams.com/video/Wi_nFz1CJSI/video.html
Talk about the Japanese currency and it's influence especially through it's Central Bank buying US bonds basically lending infinte amount if money to Financial Institutions? This free market is very interesting to the point, free market may seems more like a homophone the more that is learned?
lol china depends on selling to west, and they have a poor population with no purchasing power, so highly doubtful lol. 90 percent of international transactions were done in usd last year. 3 percent of international transactions were done in yuan. so based on that you can say no. china is like russia, anyone who trades in yuan is gonna buy usd after simply because the west economies and currencies are more stable. so it wont decrease the usd. if saudi hypothetically accepts yuan for oil, they gonna exhange that yuan for usd cuz american currency and economy is more stable.
china is more dependent on west than russia. if those companies pull out of china they are done. and those multinationals set up factories in vietnam just in case so they can shift production there in case they have to pull out of china in case they invade taiwan. china saw what happened to russia, and russian economy tanking now, i doubt they be eager to face a similar fate.
When I lived in China I spent over 15 hours talking to 5 (!!!) banks just to open an account which was a domestic only account that couldn't even receive foreign funds. The idea that they can be the world's reserve currency is laughable when their system is so hostile to foreigners.
Have u tried to open a bank account as a US citizen outside US? No one wants an American becoz of the tax rules and fatca Clearly u have no idea of reality
@@irritatedanglosaxon1705 they don't let foreigners do anything.. a Chinese citizens can come to the USA and get citizenship and they'll be an American, but no American citizen will ever receive Chinese citizenship and be considered chinese
I love telling this story. I was backpacking in a very rural region of Nicaragua, a country with horrible relations to the USA. I was going down this country road and hadn't seen a human being in an hour.. Finally I come to this small stand, and was able to buy a Coke using a $1 US dollar... and the teenager working at the stand was able to give me the correct change in the local currency. Not only was she selling coke and accepted a dollar, but she knew the conversion rate accurately enough to give the correct change.
One of the main reasons USD is so widespread in the world is oil. OPEC only accepts USD, and that's a huge reason. Another thing this video didn't mention is that as a reserve currency if there is inflation happened in the US, the US government can simply print more USD and let all other countries pay the price.
Or they can just devalue dollar I literally remember last time Biden Created 1 Trilion $ coin 💀🗿 Like for America that 27 Trilion $ loan is like 27 coins lol what a joke
This is the issue. Printing money devalues a curreny. The Usd will eventually become worth less and less. Additionally, America isn't growing as quickly as it used to offset its debts. Eventually the debt will become too much and the only way to recover is to print money. This will lead to a cascading event where countries look to store their country's wealth in ither currencies. This is actually quite a common event in history and has happened to the Pound and the Guilder.
Most important point: outside sources (ex foreign banks and countries) can’t trust China’s internal financial records vs. the US or EU, hence the reluctance even think about leaving the dollar.
You are wrong. Companies have already leaft the dollar. Most of their reserve is in USD, but some of it is already in other currencies like EUR, because of the growing instability of the US government. Russia was sanctioned by the US because of their action. But every russian company that work internationally was also sanctiknade by making their cash flow in the banking system much harder. And they didn't decide to attack Ukraine. Also for the last 10 years at least, I simply don't know if they did it before, the US has used it's control on the reserve currency and indirectly on the international banking system to force companies that do now work with the US nor with citizen of the US to comply with thier internal regulatory requirement (in some specific fields, not even most). Those are all action possible because of the US status that directly undermine the persistance of that status. Same goes for their influence and control on the SWIFT. The reson there are already more than 3 alternative to GPS is because the US has stated, in the 90s I think, that they will weaponize access to the system in case of conflict. There is nothing inherently wrong in weaponizing such technologies or systems as long as you realize that is reduce confidence in their avaialability and incentivize creation of alternative not controlled by the US, and for this reason not provided by a US company (this is the Tik Tok argument applied to the US instead of China: any garantee you get is worthless as long as the government can change the rules or laws applicable).
@@RealCherry8085 I can't choose Pound, I have to choose one that isn't my own. I would choose the Euro simply because it isn't controlled by a single country, but on the down side it is dominated by 2 or 3.
Videos like yours have gotten me into global economics and I want to say how much I appreciate it. These topics are extremely complicated, but the visual aid really helps explain most of the concepts in the best way possible.
I'm sorry to say that, but that's totally out of question. Considering what's recently been going on in China, multiple companies and major banks come crashing down really fast. It's a frightening situation and the economy will have a hard time coming back from this one. If the Chinese themselves don't trust their government handling the money, how could the rest of the world even consider it?
Před 2 lety+19
Right? IT stroke me when I saw the title of the video. How could be Chinas yuan worlds reserve currency if the country is about to crash economically.
The country isn't crashing though. Apart from covid, life is going on as normal. 0.01% or less were affected by the banking fraud, and the real estate crisis will be helpful for the 90% who can't buy a nice apartment in a reasonable city. The country is fine, and whenever it's troubled. The government will just create so much more money to solve it
@@mattydoherty3784 0.01% is 14 million people...and you can't really trust what the Chinese government tells you regarding numbers. Their economy isn't run the same way as in the West, the real estate market there is much larger because of investment restrictions imposed on citizens. The current bubble has the potential to cut up to about 10% of China's GDP (among other consequences), that's 1.5 trillion USD wiped. Saying it's "not a big deal" is extremely naive, the current situation is worse than the 2008/09 crisis, except it should be more limited to China and affect foreign nations to a lesser extent. In comparison the American GDP dropped a little over 4% in 2008/09. "Creating more money" yeah, that's not how you solve their problem.
@@maximusasauluk7359 Jesus, i could respect your comment more, but 0.01% is 140,000 not 140m, though that's a silly mistake. Their GDP is built up by so much real estate, which most people don't own, or own one apartment, so a collapse won't affect most. The upper class are staying in their positions and not suffering, i teach the upper middle class's children, life seems fine. Yes, China does just create money, building infrastructure etc, devaluing its currency which it has done for so long. It doesn't play by the rules of the rest of the world, yet is already number one I many ways. Whatever fallout from Evergrande will be limited. The government is harsh beyond belief tl it's citizens, but the progress made over 30 Years is monumental, they know why they're doing
No. Because every time they try to internationalize it, people try to get their money out of country as soon as possible. I see more stringent capital controls in Chinas future, not world reserve currency status; which is the exact opposite of what a nation with world reserve currency ambitions requires
Yeah. China meddles with the value of the RMB too much to consider it a viable world reserve currency. That it has been allowed to do peg its currency to the $ since the 90s and still get into the WTO just shows how big Western governments were pushovers to greedy corporations.
Why does no one talk about the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR's)? That's the most likely replacement world reserve currency. Even China thinks so, as they've also promoted it as an alternative. Yet everyone wants to go on with this stupid US v/s its rivals clickbait narrative.
One really big issue overlooked, China is a net importer, not exporter, their entire economy is solely dependent on imports (hence the failed Belt and Roads).
A better examination look up Peter Zeihan; he's a geopolitical analyst and has various presentations across CZcams, showing how the Golden Age for the developing world is done, America is tired of paying for it (particularly since we don't need human shields against anyone anymore, we have NO military peers, not even a near peer.)
@@EconomicsExplained maybe not in consumer level yet, but Chinese yuan other than Russia already used in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Africa country, in government central bank level, stop ignoring china positive side
Even the people inside China prefers to hold USD as a "store of value" over the Yuan. Chinese people also prefer USD over Yuan when they need to move capital out of China. When the people inside the country don't even believe in the Yuan, it is difficult to see the Yuan can be any challenge to the USD.
Spot on. While China would love to have their currency as the world reserve currency, their own actions and manipulations make that impossible. Most of the world just don't trust them, and trust is the biggest factor to any fiat currency to being viable.
It’s gonna get much worse before it gets better unfortunately. I’m expecting a big crash in the Chinese economy due to uncertainty in their market. But once they get that fixed who knows, the sky will probably be the limit.
@@Profitglutton90 Look, another China's economy is going to crash speech by someone in the West. Lol. Don't you people get tired? You've been praying for China to collapse now for at least 30 years.
Reading all this... Americans are convinced to their core that china is going to fail or capitulate... Its just motivated thinking.. If something is going to fail in China.., American economy will collapse to dust decades before the Chinese one does..
It blows my mind how economist and business men ever trusted a place like China to be the worlds manufacturing center. India, Japan, America itself, Brazil... So many other and better choices. More trustworthy too.
@@zachmetz9011 China wasn’t that much cheaper than India if at all with a “Communist” dictatorship. India had 200M less people but that’s barely a problem when labor was 1$ a month anyways and a much more secure “democracy” more aligned for the future of the west. Idk
Nothing serious will happen in both Chinese banking and real estate but you keep propping the Western propaganda through your but anyway. Even Evergrande will turn out fine just keep on watching..
How can you call China as solemnly corrupt when the United States itself is run through corporations or a series of persons that have immense involvement in the political and economic spheres. And its not like it is even being hidden when the reality is that the system benefits the most powerful and rich.
I highly doubt the currency of a country run by a highly authoritarian, closed-off, mercantilist government can ever become a reserve currency. You need trust above all else, and the CCP has time and again demonstrated that it should never be trusted. On the opposite end of the spectrum, trust is the most valuable commodity that Switzerland and the UK have, which explains their outsized role in financial markets (something you've mentioned in your own videos), and why many are perfectly happy with holding British Pounds or Swiss Francs as reserves despite being backed by much smaller economies.
Given the lack of transparency and rampant corruption in the PRC adopting the RMB as a global currency would be suicidal for financial institutions in the long run
China's not any more corrupt than any other government. Just because a country isn't a liberal democracy doesn't mean that it's automatically more corrupt. Lack of transparency is also super subjective. The US government isn't exactly what I would call transparent either.
@@Tehz1359 Yes, the US government, which willingly told the public about large scandals such as Mk. Ultra and the Tuskegee Experiment through Freedom of Information Act requests and declassification of documents, which routinely declassifies and releases documents which even implicate them in wrongdoing, isn't transparent. Meanwhile the CCP, which still denies that the Tiananmen Square Massacre never happened despite video evidence to the contrary, which uses censorship routinely to suppress the spreading of information and discontent, which has (accidentally) admitted to forging financial and economic data, and which is uncooperative to requests for important information, is just as bad as the U.S. obviously. 🤡
@@Tehz1359 LOL. I know you are absolutely BS, but I am going to have a little fun. Find the US national budget. Now try to find the Chinese national budget, good luck. The US is so transparent, we know how many tanks, planes, down to single digits they have. We know how much they are paying for xyz projects, the cost over runs, milestones, technical problems. We know how much the Secret Service detail costs.
As soon as this video said one of the requirements was "fair value," I know what the conclusion would be. Even China uses the USD as its default. The US uses a private bank as its default. The US dollar will not topple this decade, nor next.
Really don't k ow how you define this as clickbait. The title as an actual clickbait would be more like "China's currency is becoming the new world reserve. *shocked emoji and multiple red circles* "
Yeah, the answer is really obvious. The yuan will not become the world's reserve currency because the kinds of reforms the CCP has to implement to get there are politically impossible for them. So no, the yuan won't replace the dollar as long as the CCP remains in power.
The USD is strong, stable, backed by the most powerful economy and military in human history and everywhere. As an American I would probably choose the Euro.
Let me introduce you to negative interest rates and European Sovereign Debt crises. Greece, Italy, or Spain defaulting could easily sink the Euro too much, and unlike the U.S. with QE, the ECB will not bail out the nations' sovereign debt via printing.
7:12 the Chinese yuan is the 6th largest world reserve currency, it goes USD at over 60%, euro at around 20%, Japanese yen at 5%, GBP at 4.5% , Canada with 1.9% and then china at 1.8%
The thing about inflation is yes a govt can double print in a fraud manner. But the circulation of money will eventually be known to the people using it and they can lie all they want as the people see prices rise dramatically. One of the drivers of the Roman Empire fall was inflation when they started printing coins with less actual valuable metals. They got away with it for decades but eventually it did catch up with them. We live in more connected world with more reporting and social media. The effects will be felt and known quicker than 2000 years ago.
there is no audit either of the U.S money supply . how many dollars is in circulation ? Treasury or the Mint won't release that info 🤷🏼♂️.. it's fair to say since no currency is backed by gold , they are all ponzies
Can’t believe how close you are to 2M subs! I remember coming across your channel literally at 50k subs and knew that you were on your way to to explode. You’re the best mate, can’t wait to repeat this message again at 20M subs!
Simple answer: NO. While the U S is often a pain in the neck,they have avoided manipulating their currency and let it reflect real value. Their markets are open, relatively transparent and accept the risks and benefits of capitalism. China has yet to demonstrate such transparency. It tries to bully too oftenThey might score some points with Russia or Saudi Arabia who are pissed at the US but in the end, the dollar is a stable and reliable world currency. And because of its restraint, the US gets some benefit. Someday China might successfully challenge the dollar but no time soon.
I can't even 'manipulate my computer to get where I want. However: Here's your most idiotic comment I wanted to address:- "They print what they believe the market will bear. " That's the very definition of "MANIPULATION".
Absurd proposition! Quote: "the US does not print “endless” cash. They print what they believe the market will bear." Unquote. And, as you insist, "what they believe" is that endless cash is what the market must bear. I challenge you to point reveal a single occasion when the printing presses were shut down!! The inflation rate during and since 1920 is due entirely due to cash-printing. (in real terms about 3000%!). And the rest of the problem (eg The Great Depression) has been caused by printing MORE cash in an effort to reign in that inflation. "The real value" of a banana today is ACTUALLY 'worth' exactly the same as it was 100 years go (eg : It takes five of them to fill a 5yo boy!) but the price-difference has been MANIPULATED to destroy any comparison in REAL VALUE.
As an Irish citizen living 20 minutes from Derry, my second currency is the British pound. It already makes sense to have some pounds lying around just in case I'm meeting up with friends etc across the boarder, so every other currency feels redundant because of that day to day use case.
the quality and content of your videos improve with every release. I've been following you since the early days when you used to use a lot of stock footage that would regularly show some different country or place that you were describing. But the potential was always there. Awesome to see you achieve such success. Well deserved! Greetings from Nevada USA
That moment when you are so interested by topics from CZcams you end up starting a new job. Many thanks for inspiring me to move into a research analyst role at my employer 😊
@@samuraijosh1595 Holy cow, you must be fun at parties. Instead of letting them be happy with their choice you choose to make them feel worse so that you can feel better about your insignificant self?
China's economy is collapsing for these reasons: - manufacturing exports have moved out of China to other countries, permanently - belt-and-road initiative projects are not being paid by recipient countries because of their own financial difficulties - zero covid policy is pressuring domestic local busineses to close - add to that, the current Chinese banking crisis and the domestic construction crisis.
As for the belt-and-road countries, they signed ridiculous agreements with China in case they default on their loans. They were created to benefit China only, and are highly kleptocratic in nature. When China collapses, I can see us pushing a world resolution saying these countries don't need to honor that debt. It never happened.
There is one important point Chinese government actions against private companies. China knows lot of laws were broken by private companies and it finally started taking action in 2020 that's why lot of companies lost their value and evargrande had difficulty to pay debt as laws got more tightened
People have been saying that China is going to collapse for 40+ years now. And it hasn't happened. "dont worry guys it's gonna happen, any day now" and here we are 40 years later and China is about to become the most powerful country on earth, especially with the way things are going for the US. So I take predictions like these with a grain of salt. I'm not even a china shill, but a lot of the things that are said about china are pure cope. We should learn from china instead of praying on it's down fall so to speak.
Does it have to be the reserve? Truth is reserve currency is becoming more spread now, US only 60%of reserve holdings by central banks. Regardless the US is not a safe haven anymore, their debt is beyond stupid
Fun fact. A huge portion of that debt is just Chinese investment. Big companies that make fat cash selling to the US put those profits back into American infrastructure. Can't make money if your biggest customer goes belly up. So even America's rivals have a reason to prop up the dollar.
The CNY trades ninth internationally. The five top traded currencies are the USD, Euro, Yen, GBP and AUD. The United States and Europe have substantial economies.
Am I the only one who thought of the swiss currency (I think its called Swiss Franks?) when he asked which currency we'd rather be paid in than our home one
Well, even in Russia now, central bank diversifies its reserves between turkish lira, yuan and indian rupee with emphasis on rupee and not yuan, cause it is much less risky.
@@heinuchung8680 doubt it. Russia has entered the point of no return where they could careless about the western world. If anything, it seems to be that they are doing quite well as the EU nations are still heavily reliant on Russia’s resources.
Yeah, I would've thought that if the world reserve would switch it would've happened this year. But foreign investment in the US market has actually doubled since the start of 2021, instead
For the simple reason when the worlds economies start to have issue the only same place is the US. How would you like negative returns on your Euro account if it was the currancy of record.
that's due to USA's major hold on the currency system in the world. having juniors to back them up, concentrates and enables the system further. bretton woods isn't outdated, it has been updated consecutively
It also doesn't hurt that the US has raised interest rates, higher now than Europe, the UK, Japan (negative rate), and Australia. Not higher than China, however.
China's very reactive policies also makes it risky. Case 1: the big banks in China banning withdrawals from citizens because of 6B bailout from a chinese guy XD
it makes my day when i see a new video from EE! Gave a thumbs up before watching the video (i will take it down if for some reason i didnt like it). Thanks for the awesome work!
havent finished the video yet, but being that china not only changes its own economic numbers for its own benefit, but also the fact that chinese companies refuse to show the numbers on their books as well, I would say that China could never have the reserve currency due to the fact that there is no trust.
Saying that China is the :World's Largest Economy" is bunk. It has long been known that Chinese officials cook the books and with recent issues involving their banks and the heavy handed actions China has been taking to keep money within the country, especially their USD reserves, I think they are a lot weaker than what they are saying.
Yeah, they still have not installed and maintained 20th century toilets in half the country even though the government mandated the project to be completed years ago.
If anything, the Euro is a more likely candidate to be the successor of the US Dollar as reserve currency. Other more likely candidates include the British Pound, the Japanese Yen, the Canadian dollar and maybe even the Indian Rupee.
I agree with what you say about the Euro. The GBP, JPY or CAD won't become a world reserve currency. Their economies are just not big enough. That's different for China. Their economy would be big enough, but the CNY is not freely tradable and poor transparency leads to a lack of trust.
@@SuppenDfg wait for few decades India will challange China We ramp up industrial area now And upgrading our infra everywhere I see now just everywhere here construction construction construction Roads , increasing ports , flyovers , electric Highways, toll based fdi which just pay off in 10 years + profits, China is strong but Chinese hide always there stats and always suspicious no one will allow them ...after everyone saw how they blackmailed srilankans no one believe them
I seriously doubt CAD could ever become a reserve currency. The population, economy, and global influence are just too small. In addition, I have serious doubts of Canada being able to hold together in the long term.
Just one small correction, the currency is called Renmibi, the Yuan is just the principle denomination of it. It's similar to the UK with Pound being the Yuan and Sterling being Renmibi.
The Euro, representing a powerful block of economies, is also a great one to stock up if you are diversifying to protect against value shocks. There is much wealth in the EU
True, but if the specific fear is that the US could seize the funds, then the Euro might be at risk of the same thing happening at the same time. But that would depend on what country we are talking about and what "naughty" stuff they are planning on doing.
Unfortunately there are also terrible demographic issues and ridiculously high levels of bureaucracy and its twin brother socialism that limit the ability for the eurozone to be truly viable, especially long-term. Yes there is currently a lot of wealth in the EU, but the overwhelming majority of it is locked up by a very small number of old money families. People love to bash the US over its "wealth inequality" but the truth is that it does not hold a candle to the majority of the EU countries in this regard. Wealth and income are created by opportunity, and opportunity is stifled in much of the EU by taxes and bureaucracy. This is why the US income and GDP per-capita dwarfs that of the EU and that discrepancy is only accelerating. IMO the only truly tangible advantage that EUR has over china is adherence to western standards and rule of law (in other words - trust), and its advantage over other contenders like the GBP and CHF is size. That said, I absolutely agree that EUR is defacto #1 option for diversification.
@@chriskasprzyk6235 Your wealth inequality statement is completly wrong, several measures, including gini coefficient shows that wealth inequality is much higher in US than in Europe. Furthermore, a lot of countries with a high level of taxation have extremly strong economies, like Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland, including their public deficites.
@@martindvorsak3168 pretty much agree. 8/10 top income equality countries are in Europe (granted not EU as there is Norway and Switzerland). I my self come from a country known for not being wealthy but also known for being high on income equality. Pretty much everyone is a home owner and the POOR almost always stud from being an industrial economy... So people had less holidays in places where people in the UK would go, but almost everyone was or could be a home owner (had 90+ home ownership).
@@chriskasprzyk6235 Somehow you also stated low income equality with socialism and then keeping money in few families.... A literal clash of policies and opposes everything social, not even socialism.
It was odd, or perhaps intentional, that there was no mention of MMT in this video to explain how the US dollar manages to hold its value after the abandonment of the gold standard
The only place beside China where people would use Yuan voluntarily now is North Korea. Until this changes, Yuan is never gonna come close to being the reserve currency. And even North Koreans prefer Dollar vs Yuan if they have a choice.
As a citizen of the world , I can tell you that no single country or countries should have centralized currency as the World Reserve. It is a bad idea and it's like digging your own grave unless you belong to the 1-5% of world population belonging to that particular country(US,China, whatever..) . In the future we need to develop a world currency accepted in all around the world and looked after by separate organisations in each and every country. In short , we need a world currency which is not USD or China dollar or Russian Ruble.
Okay … And what economy would support it ? What would be its fiscal policy ? Where would it leverage sovereign debt from ? How would it’s M2 supply and distribution be determined ? These fancy ideas sound good for people who don’t under how fiat currencies work. If you wanted to avoid any country’s influence you might as well use gold But then there’s not enough good demand and supply to adequate represent the volatile nature of international finance Hence why it was abandoned In contrast a fiat currency actually does have said flexibility The issue is a fiat currency doesn’t really have any real value devoid from an economy Hence why it is necessary for whatever global currency exists to be tied to an actual real world economy
@@BasicLib Are you an American and want your currency to be strongest till the ends of time and beyond? If not, you can help try answering these questions that you have. If yes though , enjoy spending em dollars..
The rest of the world will be foolish to allow another nation (especially China) have the reserve currency especially given what they accuse the US of abusing that role and privilege. EE Thanks for easy explanation.
@@anthonyr1479 Not sure about abuse. The US does take advantage of their standing. This thing with Russia is the nuclear option every nation was worried about. The question is will other nations decide hitching their reserve currency to an authoritarian regime in China while they have to deploy tanks to defend banks is a good idea? I think not.
@@Elementalism they didn't deploy tanks to their banks. The video was taken out of context as usual and the tanks weren't even close to any banks where the protests were actually happening. The tanks were filmed near a naval base.
@@---jj9lf Isn't doing bad? Southern Europe is poised to default in the near future in an event that will dwarf the Greece default by a huge degree. This is why they're having to buy unlimited amounts of bonds to hang on to solvency for a finite period of time.
If I can't have USD, I'd go for either the Euro or Pound, then Canadian Dollar imo China artificially controls the amount of currency in circulation, in an extreme way. They also aren't shy about lying about any number being reported, whether it be domestic production, population projections, deaths from a virus, number of green projects, success of said projects, natural disaster casualties, man-made party-related casualties, state-sanctioned annual executions (projected to be the highest on the planet), etc. The CCP changes numbers so frequently that not even party members can make proper decisions based off their own internally reported numbers.
With the Euro and USD at a matched exchange rate; I wonder what the plausibility of merging them under an international "dollar" is. Or permanently pinning them at a 1:1 exchange rate.
My home currency is the Euro and despite major setbacks , it has proven very resilient if any currency was to be the backup if the USD collapsed , it would be the euro , not the Chinese RMB nor the Japanese Yen After all, it is ~20% of the worlds reserves already, significantly below the USD at 60%, but also significantly ahead of 3rd place Im surprised that there is so much talk about the RMB becoming the world's reserve but nobody is talking about the potential of the Euro ... when its already at 2nd place , and not only that , it's central bank the European Central Bank values currency stability over anything else and isn't beholdent to any single goverment , which means that one populist leader coming to power in one EU country cant just "printer go BRRRR"
US citizen here. I picked Euros as the alternative currency to receive pay in. It was an immediate gut reaction. As I thought more about it, I considered Pounds and Canadian Dollars, but came back to Euros. And the video nailed the reasons. The other two aren’t as widely accepted, but I trust all 3. I don’t trust the CCP or the Yuan at all. Maybe it’ll appreciate, but too big a risk factor.
It's scary how much Chinese money and influence rapidly destroyed the livelihoods of many average people in Cambodia especially in coastal Sihanoukville province. To be fair they did help us build infrastructure and that is very valuable, but its so enlightening to see most of them just yeet out of the country after we outlawed online gambling (goes to show what they're here for) . The locals could no longer afford housing in the city anymore since the price grew exponentially when Chinese investment came in. Now its a city of empty casinos. I highly doubt Chinese currency can become a global reserve currency because many developing countries dont trust them so much anymore.
@@peterdisabella2156 Oh they are doing similar things all over the world, especially Africa and South America. They lend them money to massive infra structure projects (That is not build by locals but by Chinese workers so the money go straight back to Chinese pockets.), the projects turns out to not be that profitable, the countries can't pay China back... they now have to default and China just takes the land they build on, it's theirs now. It's literally what happened to Sri Lanka and why they folded last month. And it looks like loads of countries will be doing the same, again... Mostly in Africa and South America. But also a lot of smaller asian countries. It always collapses their local economies and make the local population suffer.
@Zack Smith Bold of you to assume that I am okay with what the US is doing in the middle east. I think this nation building that the US is doing is WRONG, I always hated it, I am firmly against it. I think it is a big reason why the entire west is now in the gutter, nobody benefitted. There was only suffering. And I think this nation building that China is doing... Is also wrong. Once again, nobody benefits, everybody suffers. I am actually consistent because I think BOTH nations are equally wrong about this. Also I am Danish, I live in Denmark. So neither nation represents me...
3:30 Everyone misses the most major part of the Bretton Woods agreement, in this agreement the US agreed to use its military to police international waters protecting ships from piracy and foreign nations that aren't very kind. It was agreed that we would do this until communism was no longer a threat, this agreement has recently ended which is going to have considerable implication on both the US and foreign economies.
That is just crazy! They are not a capitalist society who will every have the freedom of capital flows or the creditability in governance the rest of the world will require.
To be a desired reserve currency the world watches how your banks are performing. If there are reports of people who cannot even have a look at their own deposits let alone withdraw their savings, or that depositors in Henan have been cheated completely of their savings and yet got manhandled and arrested for protesting, then what kind of financial system is that? How can other nations become more trustful of the Renminbi when the banking system is so opaque and problematic?
LOL. As humans, I'm pretty sure all the Franks in Switzerland would object to being used as currency. I think its illegal as well. Francs make better currency.
So if the Yuan is in such a precarious position, could some other BRICS currency like Indian Rupees or Brazilian Reales be a more likely alternative reserve currency?
@@stephenc2481 most people don't take measures to educate themselves on the goings on of other countries, China was a rising star in the 2000s so many people use that as a basis for their beliefs, ignoring what is shaping up to be a Chinese great depression in the coming years (though that could certainly change)
Private colleges are simply able to allocate more finances due to « not relying »on public finances. Although, this is a system that we shouldn’t be relying on, as it only creates more disparities in wealth because private universities can raise prices to unbelievable levels, such as what is happening in the US.
As an immigrant to the US from South America, meaning I deal with exchange rates all the time, I’d never pick the Yuan. The Pound Sterling or Euro would be my back up.
Spot on! Their middle income trap aside. They have recently found out that most of China is a global warming hotspot. China's mean temperature has risen by 0.26 degrees Celsius a decade since 1951, compared to the global average of 0.15 degrees and it is accelerating.
to be fair, US sanction other countries for reasons that goes against it interest, Venezuela, Cuba are the best examples of countries dealing with internal problems being sanctioned just for being antagonistic to US.
US sanctions always were used to make countries play ball, specially in latin america... just look the nicaragua/el salvador contrast, nicaragua is being sanctioned for failing democracy, el salvdor, the bitcoin president abolish the congress and nothing happen.... it was never about democracy, is about power and control.
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What do you think of Peter Zeihan's forecasts regarding China's stability, world agriculture, and other issues of interest?
czcams.com/video/Wi_nFz1CJSI/video.html
Im using morning brew its awesome
Talk about the Japanese currency and it's influence especially through it's Central Bank buying US bonds basically lending infinte amount if money to Financial Institutions? This free market is very interesting to the point, free market may seems more like a homophone the more that is learned?
lol china depends on selling to west, and they have a poor population with no purchasing power, so highly doubtful lol. 90 percent of international transactions were done in usd last year. 3 percent of international transactions were done in yuan. so based on that you can say no. china is like russia, anyone who trades in yuan is gonna buy usd after simply because the west economies and currencies are more stable. so it wont decrease the usd. if saudi hypothetically accepts yuan for oil, they gonna exhange that yuan for usd cuz american currency and economy is more stable.
china is more dependent on west than russia. if those companies pull out of china they are done. and those multinationals set up factories in vietnam just in case so they can shift production there in case they have to pull out of china in case they invade taiwan. china saw what happened to russia, and russian economy tanking now, i doubt they be eager to face a similar fate.
When I lived in China I spent over 15 hours talking to 5 (!!!) banks just to open an account which was a domestic only account that couldn't even receive foreign funds. The idea that they can be the world's reserve currency is laughable when their system is so hostile to foreigners.
Indeed they don't let foreigners open a bank account
Have u tried to open a bank account as a US citizen outside US? No one wants an American becoz of the tax rules and fatca
Clearly u have no idea of reality
It is laughable the answer is in your comment.
Its incredible we do so much business with them
@@irritatedanglosaxon1705 they don't let foreigners do anything.. a Chinese citizens can come to the USA and get citizenship and they'll be an American, but no American citizen will ever receive Chinese citizenship and be considered chinese
I love telling this story. I was backpacking in a very rural region of Nicaragua, a country with horrible relations to the USA. I was going down this country road and hadn't seen a human being in an hour.. Finally I come to this small stand, and was able to buy a Coke using a $1 US dollar... and the teenager working at the stand was able to give me the correct change in the local currency. Not only was she selling coke and accepted a dollar, but she knew the conversion rate accurately enough to give the correct change.
What were you doing in Nicaragua?
@@jeevan88888 Tourist stuff, most likely. He did say he was backpacking.
@@Sinyao Backpacking is an excuse to do shady stuff at times. I was just askin
Ahhh, my dad use to tell me when it was possible to buy coke in the us for sub $1. The 70's seems like such a magical time.
@@jeevan88888 just traveling. digital nomad.
One of the main reasons USD is so widespread in the world is oil. OPEC only accepts USD, and that's a huge reason. Another thing this video didn't mention is that as a reserve currency if there is inflation happened in the US, the US government can simply print more USD and let all other countries pay the price.
Or they can just devalue dollar
I literally remember last time Biden
Created 1 Trilion $ coin 💀🗿
Like for America that 27 Trilion $ loan is like 27 coins lol what a joke
This is the issue. Printing money devalues a curreny. The Usd will eventually become worth less and less. Additionally, America isn't growing as quickly as it used to offset its debts. Eventually the debt will become too much and the only way to recover is to print money. This will lead to a cascading event where countries look to store their country's wealth in ither currencies. This is actually quite a common event in history and has happened to the Pound and the Guilder.
@@reidhaack2532 agreed....the fool Chemo wont have an answer to thıs
"One of the main reasons USD is so widespread in the world is"
As per the other posters, your comment and reasoning is rubbish.
@@alexanderSydneyOz cope
Show me a man without investment and I'll tell you how long it takes to go bankrupt.
I have been in the market but I'm yet to earned fifty dollars
Most important point: outside sources (ex foreign banks and countries) can’t trust China’s internal financial records vs. the US or EU, hence the reluctance even think about leaving the dollar.
the chinese cant even trust chinas banks atm they are running out of cash......
Not the least, the offshore Yuan is also tightly controlled by the Chinese government if it suited them too!?
You are wrong. Companies have already leaft the dollar. Most of their reserve is in USD, but some of it is already in other currencies like EUR, because of the growing instability of the US government. Russia was sanctioned by the US because of their action.
But every russian company that work internationally was also sanctiknade by making their cash flow in the banking system much harder. And they didn't decide to attack Ukraine.
Also for the last 10 years at least, I simply don't know if they did it before, the US has used it's control on the reserve currency and indirectly on the international banking system to force companies that do now work with the US nor with citizen of the US to comply with thier internal regulatory requirement (in some specific fields, not even most).
Those are all action possible because of the US status that directly undermine the persistance of that status. Same goes for their influence and control on the SWIFT.
The reson there are already more than 3 alternative to GPS is because the US has stated, in the 90s I think, that they will weaponize access to the system in case of conflict.
There is nothing inherently wrong in weaponizing such technologies or systems as long as you realize that is reduce confidence in their avaialability and incentivize creation of alternative not controlled by the US, and for this reason not provided by a US company (this is the Tik Tok argument applied to the US instead of China: any garantee you get is worthless as long as the government can change the rules or laws applicable).
Chinas banks are broke and have tanks out front.
China is circling the drain.
@@gasaxe6056 i have a friend in henan where those tanks were meant to be she hasnt seen them but it is circling the drain i agree
As an American my second choice of currency would probably be the Euro. I'd take a range of currencies before I would take Chinese yuan
I would rather have Euros than Dollars.
1) u.s dollar
2)euro
3)pound sterling
I do not trust the chinese government.
British Pounds better
Good choice. Br*tish money smell.
@@RealCherry8085 I can't choose Pound, I have to choose one that isn't my own. I would choose the Euro simply because it isn't controlled by a single country, but on the down side it is dominated by 2 or 3.
Videos like yours have gotten me into global economics and I want to say how much I appreciate it. These topics are extremely complicated, but the visual aid really helps explain most of the concepts in the best way possible.
I'm sorry to say that, but that's totally out of question.
Considering what's recently been going on in China, multiple companies and major banks come crashing down really fast.
It's a frightening situation and the economy will have a hard time coming back from this one.
If the Chinese themselves don't trust their government handling the money, how could the rest of the world even consider it?
Right? IT stroke me when I saw the title of the video. How could be Chinas yuan worlds reserve currency if the country is about to crash economically.
The country isn't crashing though. Apart from covid, life is going on as normal. 0.01% or less were affected by the banking fraud, and the real estate crisis will be helpful for the 90% who can't buy a nice apartment in a reasonable city.
The country is fine, and whenever it's troubled. The government will just create so much more money to solve it
@@mattydoherty3784 0.01% is 14 million people...and you can't really trust what the Chinese government tells you regarding numbers. Their economy isn't run the same way as in the West, the real estate market there is much larger because of investment restrictions imposed on citizens. The current bubble has the potential to cut up to about 10% of China's GDP (among other consequences), that's 1.5 trillion USD wiped.
Saying it's "not a big deal" is extremely naive, the current situation is worse than the 2008/09 crisis, except it should be more limited to China and affect foreign nations to a lesser extent. In comparison the American GDP dropped a little over 4% in 2008/09. "Creating more money" yeah, that's not how you solve their problem.
According to official data, 128 banks/financial systems are involved in the evergrande scandal alone, not counting many others
@@maximusasauluk7359 Jesus, i could respect your comment more, but 0.01% is 140,000 not 140m, though that's a silly mistake.
Their GDP is built up by so much real estate, which most people don't own, or own one apartment, so a collapse won't affect most. The upper class are staying in their positions and not suffering, i teach the upper middle class's children, life seems fine.
Yes, China does just create money, building infrastructure etc, devaluing its currency which it has done for so long. It doesn't play by the rules of the rest of the world, yet is already number one I many ways. Whatever fallout from Evergrande will be limited. The government is harsh beyond belief tl it's citizens, but the progress made over 30 Years is monumental, they know why they're doing
No. Because every time they try to internationalize it, people try to get their money out of country as soon as possible. I see more stringent capital controls in Chinas future, not world reserve currency status; which is the exact opposite of what a nation with world reserve currency ambitions requires
Which is exactly the same thing he said in this video
Yeah. China meddles with the value of the RMB too much to consider it a viable world reserve currency. That it has been allowed to do peg its currency to the $ since the 90s and still get into the WTO just shows how big Western governments were pushovers to greedy corporations.
Why does no one talk about the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR's)? That's the most likely replacement world reserve currency. Even China thinks so, as they've also promoted it as an alternative. Yet everyone wants to go on with this stupid US v/s its rivals clickbait narrative.
One really big issue overlooked, China is a net importer, not exporter, their entire economy is solely dependent on imports (hence the failed Belt and Roads).
@@dieptrieu6564
I didn’t watch the video so BLEHH
The way you explain stuff makes it very easy to understand. I always feel like i am learning something new.
Great video as usual.
Glad you like it!
He is right. I'm using your Videos as reference material when fleshing out the economic aspect of a story I'm writing.
@@EconomicsExplained your discord link never works for me pls check that
A better examination look up Peter Zeihan; he's a geopolitical analyst and has various presentations across CZcams, showing how the Golden Age for the developing world is done, America is tired of paying for it (particularly since we don't need human shields against anyone anymore, we have NO military peers, not even a near peer.)
@@EconomicsExplained maybe not in consumer level yet, but Chinese yuan other than Russia already used in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Africa country, in government central bank level, stop ignoring china positive side
Even the people inside China prefers to hold USD as a "store of value" over the Yuan. Chinese people also prefer USD over Yuan when they need to move capital out of China. When the people inside the country don't even believe in the Yuan, it is difficult to see the Yuan can be any challenge to the USD.
The chinese realize that theres no future in china.
The US never had to build a legal wall to keep its dollars in ... echoes of history lol
@bennyg Reminds me of, "Democracy may not be perfect, but I've never had to build a wall to keep people in."
Simply incorrect🤣
@@joshuaxu1725 True until you have a need to move money out of China. If you are happy to keep money in China then I agree the Yuan is all you need.
Spot on. While China would love to have their currency as the world reserve currency, their own actions and manipulations make that impossible. Most of the world just don't trust them, and trust is the biggest factor to any fiat currency to being viable.
Small retails may not. Not with the big corps. The time is changing.
Bullshit, and you think banks in the US don't? When you mean most of the world - you mean the "Western world" and not really the majority.
@@theMarhaenist
So you’re saying China has stopped manipulating its currency? And has no intention of doing it in the future?
@@neilkurzman4907 Tell Donald Trump his skin is orange.
@@theMarhaenist
He’s got eyes, I’m sure he knows.
EE: "China is now the world's largest economy"
Evergrand and the general Chinese real state: "Yeah.. hold our beer"
also chiness banks - what deposit
also chiness banks - let me bring tanks to protect ourselves.
every thing in the chinese economy is a pyramid scheme. it will fall
lol
Don't mind the deceivers
Chinese people are on the verge of a revolt because they lost their money to state run scam. here we are, so many people think so highly of China.
They have to figure out their banking right now that’s getting worse everyday that resulted in mass rallies this year
It’s gonna get much worse before it gets better unfortunately. I’m expecting a big crash in the Chinese economy due to uncertainty in their market. But once they get that fixed who knows, the sky will probably be the limit.
@@Profitglutton90 not sure About that. Their demographics spell decline
@@Profitglutton90 Look, another China's economy is going to crash speech by someone in the West. Lol. Don't you people get tired? You've been praying for China to collapse now for at least 30 years.
Reading all this... Americans are convinced to their core that china is going to fail or capitulate... Its just motivated thinking..
If something is going to fail in China.., American economy will collapse to dust decades before the Chinese one does..
Source?
It blows my mind how economist and business men ever trusted a place like China to be the worlds manufacturing center. India, Japan, America itself, Brazil... So many other and better choices. More trustworthy too.
I have the same question.
shut up and make me some curry
Cheap labor.. money talks
@@zachmetz9011 China wasn’t that much cheaper than India if at all with a “Communist” dictatorship. India had 200M less people but that’s barely a problem when labor was 1$ a month anyways and a much more secure “democracy” more aligned for the future of the west. Idk
thats why youre not a business men
Shoutout to China’s current real estate and banking “situation”(ie. failures, bankruptcies, and corruption)
@Zack Smith lol ur joking right, how can u ignore all the recent corruption scandals with people not being able to withdraw their money?
Nothing serious will happen in both Chinese banking and real estate but you keep propping the Western propaganda through your but anyway. Even Evergrande will turn out fine just keep on watching..
How can you call China as solemnly corrupt when the United States itself is run through corporations or a series of persons that have immense involvement in the political and economic spheres. And its not like it is even being hidden when the reality is that the system benefits the most powerful and rich.
I highly doubt the currency of a country run by a highly authoritarian, closed-off, mercantilist government can ever become a reserve currency. You need trust above all else, and the CCP has time and again demonstrated that it should never be trusted. On the opposite end of the spectrum, trust is the most valuable commodity that Switzerland and the UK have, which explains their outsized role in financial markets (something you've mentioned in your own videos), and why many are perfectly happy with holding British Pounds or Swiss Francs as reserves despite being backed by much smaller economies.
can you explain how china is a mercantilist economy?
The ccp is actually good. It is probably the second best modern political party
Hilarious
@@smileyface3956 very funny
@@smileyface3956 Here, I think you dropped these: " " " " " " " " " " "
Given the lack of transparency and rampant corruption in the PRC adopting the RMB as a global currency would be suicidal for financial institutions in the long run
Yes. Only if people step back and think a little.
China's not any more corrupt than any other government. Just because a country isn't a liberal democracy doesn't mean that it's automatically more corrupt. Lack of transparency is also super subjective. The US government isn't exactly what I would call transparent either.
@@Tehz1359 Yes, the US government, which willingly told the public about large scandals such as Mk. Ultra and the Tuskegee Experiment through Freedom of Information Act requests and declassification of documents, which routinely declassifies and releases documents which even implicate them in wrongdoing, isn't transparent. Meanwhile the CCP, which still denies that the Tiananmen Square Massacre never happened despite video evidence to the contrary, which uses censorship routinely to suppress the spreading of information and discontent, which has (accidentally) admitted to forging financial and economic data, and which is uncooperative to requests for important information, is just as bad as the U.S. obviously. 🤡
@@Tehz1359 LOL. I know you are absolutely BS, but I am going to have a little fun. Find the US national budget. Now try to find the Chinese national budget, good luck.
The US is so transparent, we know how many tanks, planes, down to single digits they have. We know how much they are paying for xyz projects, the cost over runs, milestones, technical problems. We know how much the Secret Service detail costs.
@@Tehz1359 as soon as you said "just because a govt isn't a liberal democracy..." You lost all credibility
As soon as this video said one of the requirements was "fair value," I know what the conclusion would be. Even China uses the USD as its default. The US uses a private bank as its default. The US dollar will not topple this decade, nor next.
I'd likely pick the Swiss Franc. While not wide use, it is stable and respected
Is it economy large enough to handle the amount needed for transactions around the world?
As always with clickbait titles, the answer is "no".
It’s not clickbait, could be a better title, but he’s answering the question directly related to the title. Hence, not clickbait. It isn’t misleading
Really don't k ow how you define this as clickbait. The title as an actual clickbait would be more like "China's currency is becoming the new world reserve. *shocked emoji and multiple red circles* "
It was a joke guys, not a serious criticism. Chill please :).
Yeah, the answer is really obvious. The yuan will not become the world's reserve currency because the kinds of reforms the CCP has to implement to get there are politically impossible for them. So no, the yuan won't replace the dollar as long as the CCP remains in power.
@@StephensCrazyHour Sorry lol
Yes please, I'd like to be paid in the currency of an autocratic regime that has zero respect for human or property rights - said nobody ever.
You slept during American aggression on Iraq,Afganistan,Yugoslavia, Libya,Vietnam, Korea etc...
I like that you used the mid-40s flags. You're on point.
The USD is strong, stable, backed by the most powerful economy and military in human history and everywhere. As an American I would probably choose the Euro.
Let me introduce you to negative interest rates and European Sovereign Debt crises. Greece, Italy, or Spain defaulting could easily sink the Euro too much, and unlike the U.S. with QE, the ECB will not bail out the nations' sovereign debt via printing.
Honestly, I'm worried about the state of the Euro in the coming future. Even the Yen seems safer than what's about to come for it.
What the benefits of dollars when millions America people dying for hunger
7:12 the Chinese yuan is the 6th largest world reserve currency, it goes USD at over 60%, euro at around 20%, Japanese yen at 5%, GBP at 4.5% , Canada with 1.9% and then china at 1.8%
Yeah, I also remember it to be something like what you listed. But maybe EE has dug up some more recent info...
Yeah, where is he getting that from?
and where is Australia?
@@drgarad almost on par with china
@@nunnie768 I think he mixed up the yen with the yuan
China has also been caught double printing its money which means we dont know what is actually in circulation.
The thing about inflation is yes a govt can double print in a fraud manner. But the circulation of money will eventually be known to the people using it and they can lie all they want as the people see prices rise dramatically. One of the drivers of the Roman Empire fall was inflation when they started printing coins with less actual valuable metals. They got away with it for decades but eventually it did catch up with them. We live in more connected world with more reporting and social media. The effects will be felt and known quicker than 2000 years ago.
It’s doesn’t surprise me
there is no audit either of the U.S money supply . how many dollars is in circulation ? Treasury or the Mint won't release that info 🤷🏼♂️.. it's fair to say since no currency is backed by gold , they are all ponzies
Can’t believe how close you are to 2M subs!
I remember coming across your channel literally at 50k subs and knew that you were on your way to to explode. You’re the best mate, can’t wait to repeat this message again at 20M subs!
Simple answer: NO.
While the U S is often a pain in the neck,they have avoided manipulating their currency and let it reflect real value. Their markets are open, relatively transparent and accept the risks and benefits of capitalism.
China has yet to demonstrate such transparency.
It tries to bully too oftenThey might score some points with Russia or Saudi Arabia who are pissed at the US but in the end, the dollar is a stable and reliable world currency.
And because of its restraint, the US gets some benefit.
Someday China might successfully challenge the dollar but no time soon.
How can endless printing of unbacked 'cash' (QE) in any way be 'non-manipulating OR "reflect real value" ?? A daft proposition!
@@dabbbles Are you talking about China?
I can't even 'manipulate my computer to get where I want. However: Here's your most idiotic comment I wanted to address:- "They print what they believe the market will bear. " That's the very definition of "MANIPULATION".
Absurd proposition!
Quote: "the US does not print “endless” cash. They print what they believe the market will bear." Unquote. And, as you insist, "what they believe" is that endless cash is what the market must bear. I challenge you to point reveal a single occasion when the printing presses were shut down!! The inflation rate during and since 1920 is due entirely due to cash-printing. (in real terms about 3000%!). And the rest of the problem (eg The Great Depression) has been caused by printing MORE cash in an effort to reign in that inflation. "The real value" of a banana today is ACTUALLY 'worth' exactly the same as it was 100 years go (eg : It takes five of them to fill a 5yo boy!) but the price-difference has been MANIPULATED to destroy any comparison in REAL VALUE.
A country that openly manipulates it's currency is pretty hard to palate in the open market
The US does the same but ig we dont talk about the fed pumping massive amounts of money into the economy, makes us look bad.
As if dollar doesn't
@@vishalsinghbaghel it literally can't because the US govt doesn't control the dollar. The Federal Reserve does.
@@vishalsinghbaghel They just try to control inflation not really it’s direct value though
@@willwin4744 if the US was still the world's factory, they would also manipulate their currency to keep their exports attractive to importers.
As an Irish citizen living 20 minutes from Derry, my second currency is the British pound. It already makes sense to have some pounds lying around just in case I'm meeting up with friends etc across the boarder, so every other currency feels redundant because of that day to day use case.
Hi from carlow
In Edinburgh it's not uncommon to find pound sterling notes from the Bank of Ireland
@@tristanheaton2127 Hi from Mayo
@@alankenny21 I was in mayo yesterday it's so beautiful
Hi from clare
the quality and content of your videos improve with every release. I've been following you since the early days when you used to use a lot of stock footage that would regularly show some different country or place that you were describing. But the potential was always there. Awesome to see you achieve such success. Well deserved! Greetings from Nevada USA
If Saudi Arabia change dollar to yuan then it will be a big blow to US dollar
Glad you love the content! Feel free to reach out to me for more tips on how to build your finance
That moment when you are so interested by topics from CZcams you end up starting a new job. Many thanks for inspiring me to move into a research analyst role at my employer 😊
Congrats man. Wish you nothing but success in your new job.
New job won't feel so new in a jiffy. Analyst roles are some of the most boring jobs on the planet.
@@samuraijosh1595 Holy cow, you must be fun at parties. Instead of letting them be happy with their choice you choose to make them feel worse so that you can feel better about your insignificant self?
@@dnlsndr calm down. I'm sure OP would've taken it as light lame banter. You sound offended for him. Get off the internet and have a cool drink.
@@dnlsndr He ain’t wrong tho
China's economy is collapsing for these reasons:
- manufacturing exports have moved out of China to other countries, permanently
- belt-and-road initiative projects are not being paid by recipient countries because of their own financial difficulties
- zero covid policy is pressuring domestic local busineses to close
- add to that, the current Chinese banking crisis and the domestic construction crisis.
And their saber-rattling when it came to Pelosi paying a visit to Taiwan, isn't helping them either.
They also made it alot harder for foreign companies to operate there so most left already
As for the belt-and-road countries, they signed ridiculous agreements with China in case they default on their loans. They were created to benefit China only, and are highly kleptocratic in nature.
When China collapses, I can see us pushing a world resolution saying these countries don't need to honor that debt. It never happened.
There is one important point Chinese government actions against private companies. China knows lot of laws were broken by private companies and it finally started taking action in 2020 that's why lot of companies lost their value and evargrande had difficulty to pay debt as laws got more tightened
People have been saying that China is going to collapse for 40+ years now. And it hasn't happened. "dont worry guys it's gonna happen, any day now" and here we are 40 years later and China is about to become the most powerful country on earth, especially with the way things are going for the US. So I take predictions like these with a grain of salt. I'm not even a china shill, but a lot of the things that are said about china are pure cope. We should learn from china instead of praying on it's down fall so to speak.
Does it have to be the reserve? Truth is reserve currency is becoming more spread now, US only 60%of reserve holdings by central banks. Regardless the US is not a safe haven anymore, their debt is beyond stupid
Fun fact. A huge portion of that debt is just Chinese investment. Big companies that make fat cash selling to the US put those profits back into American infrastructure. Can't make money if your biggest customer goes belly up. So even America's rivals have a reason to prop up the dollar.
The CNY trades ninth internationally. The five top traded currencies are the USD, Euro, Yen, GBP and AUD. The United States and Europe have substantial economies.
peering into the world of competing monetary policies is awesome, I'd love to see more videos along this vein
Am I the only one who thought of the swiss currency (I think its called Swiss Franks?) when he asked which currency we'd rather be paid in than our home one
No swisx franks or yen
Well, even in Russia now, central bank diversifies its reserves between turkish lira, yuan and indian rupee with emphasis on rupee and not yuan, cause it is much less risky.
Russians still would rather the almighty green back
@@heinuchung8680 doubt it. Russia has entered the point of no return where they could careless about the western world. If anything, it seems to be that they are doing quite well as the EU nations are still heavily reliant on Russia’s resources.
Yeah, I would've thought that if the world reserve would switch it would've happened this year. But foreign investment in the US market has actually doubled since the start of 2021, instead
lol
For the simple reason when the worlds economies start to have issue the only same place is the US. How would you like negative returns on your Euro account if it was the currancy of record.
Dare I say, source please
that's due to USA's major hold on the currency system in the world. having juniors to back them up, concentrates and enables the system further. bretton woods isn't outdated, it has been updated consecutively
It also doesn't hurt that the US has raised interest rates, higher now than Europe, the UK, Japan (negative rate), and Australia. Not higher than China, however.
China's very reactive policies also makes it risky. Case 1: the big banks in China banning withdrawals from citizens because of 6B bailout from a chinese guy XD
Its frozen because there is nothing to withdraw. Those 6B were stolen and arent there anymore.
Or your account being frozen because you posted something like, visited Taiwan, great country, great culture
@@kukulkhaan naw, they’ll just send the police over instead and hold you hostage
Or just say you have COVID with no evidence in an attempt to get you locked up in a camp
@@someguywithacat6711 haha, that'll only happen if the country you're in is a part of BRI.
Great post my friend. I always enjoy tuning into your newest post.
it makes my day when i see a new video from EE! Gave a thumbs up before watching the video (i will take it down if for some reason i didnt like it). Thanks for the awesome work!
The Euro € would be my second currency choice.
havent finished the video yet, but being that china not only changes its own economic numbers for its own benefit, but also the fact that chinese companies refuse to show the numbers on their books as well, I would say that China could never have the reserve currency due to the fact that there is no trust.
Excellent recap, up-to-date and well explained in lively manner. The 15min go fast. Good video to share with students about intl economics.
Saying that China is the :World's Largest Economy" is bunk. It has long been known that Chinese officials cook the books and with recent issues involving their banks and the heavy handed actions China has been taking to keep money within the country, especially their USD reserves, I think they are a lot weaker than what they are saying.
Yeah, they still have not installed and maintained 20th century toilets in half the country even though the government mandated the project to be completed years ago.
@Zack Smith it's both and the 50cent army are in full force hiding critical comments.
If anything, the Euro is a more likely candidate to be the successor of the US Dollar as reserve currency. Other more likely candidates include the British Pound, the Japanese Yen, the Canadian dollar and maybe even the Indian Rupee.
I agree with what you say about the Euro. The GBP, JPY or CAD won't become a world reserve currency. Their economies are just not big enough. That's different for China. Their economy would be big enough, but the CNY is not freely tradable and poor transparency leads to a lack of trust.
@@SuppenDfg on top of their already financial collapse.
@@SuppenDfg wait for few decades India will challange China
We ramp up industrial area now
And upgrading our infra everywhere
I see now just everywhere here construction construction construction
Roads , increasing ports , flyovers , electric Highways, toll based fdi which just pay off in 10 years + profits,
China is strong but Chinese hide always there stats and always suspicious no one will allow them ...after everyone saw how they blackmailed srilankans no one believe them
Controlling and manipulation not healthy for a reserve currency
I seriously doubt CAD could ever become a reserve currency. The population, economy, and global influence are just too small. In addition, I have serious doubts of Canada being able to hold together in the long term.
Nothing like some early morning economics explained!! Loved this video!
Yea... remember 20 yrs ago when we thought there's no way china's economy would be greater than America's????
Who thought that ?
People had been predicting China overtaking the US since 2010
Just one small correction, the currency is called Renmibi, the Yuan is just the principle denomination of it. It's similar to the UK with Pound being the Yuan and Sterling being Renmibi.
Considering that the PRC is a deceitful kleptocracy, I would never accept a system of currency that relies on RMB.
This.
Agreed.
The Euro, representing a powerful block of economies, is also a great one to stock up if you are diversifying to protect against value shocks. There is much wealth in the EU
True, but if the specific fear is that the US could seize the funds, then the Euro might be at risk of the same thing happening at the same time. But that would depend on what country we are talking about and what "naughty" stuff they are planning on doing.
Unfortunately there are also terrible demographic issues and ridiculously high levels of bureaucracy and its twin brother socialism that limit the ability for the eurozone to be truly viable, especially long-term. Yes there is currently a lot of wealth in the EU, but the overwhelming majority of it is locked up by a very small number of old money families. People love to bash the US over its "wealth inequality" but the truth is that it does not hold a candle to the majority of the EU countries in this regard. Wealth and income are created by opportunity, and opportunity is stifled in much of the EU by taxes and bureaucracy. This is why the US income and GDP per-capita dwarfs that of the EU and that discrepancy is only accelerating.
IMO the only truly tangible advantage that EUR has over china is adherence to western standards and rule of law (in other words - trust), and its advantage over other contenders like the GBP and CHF is size. That said, I absolutely agree that EUR is defacto #1 option for diversification.
@@chriskasprzyk6235 Your wealth inequality statement is completly wrong, several measures, including gini coefficient shows that wealth inequality is much higher in US than in Europe. Furthermore, a lot of countries with a high level of taxation have extremly strong economies, like Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland, including their public deficites.
@@martindvorsak3168 pretty much agree.
8/10 top income equality countries are in Europe (granted not EU as there is Norway and Switzerland).
I my self come from a country known for not being wealthy but also known for being high on income equality. Pretty much everyone is a home owner and the POOR almost always stud from being an industrial economy... So people had less holidays in places where people in the UK would go, but almost everyone was or could be a home owner (had 90+ home ownership).
@@chriskasprzyk6235 Somehow you also stated low income equality with socialism and then keeping money in few families.... A literal clash of policies and opposes everything social, not even socialism.
It was odd, or perhaps intentional, that there was no mention of MMT in this video to explain how the US dollar manages to hold its value after the abandonment of the gold standard
Amazing explanation. Keep up the good work
This guy is just the gold standard in economics videos 🙌🏿🙌🏿.. much appreciation
Pun intended?
@@samnow2627 😂😂😂 sure
He's an old, outdated concept loved by libertarian conservatives?
Kinda western-english biased but hey, good stuff anyways
Yeah he's got you pegged
The only place beside China where people would use Yuan voluntarily now is North Korea. Until this changes, Yuan is never gonna come close to being the reserve currency. And even North Koreans prefer Dollar vs Yuan if they have a choice.
As a citizen of the world , I can tell you that no single country or countries should have centralized currency as the World Reserve. It is a bad idea and it's like digging your own grave unless you belong to the 1-5% of world population belonging to that particular country(US,China, whatever..) . In the future we need to develop a world currency accepted in all around the world and looked after by separate organisations in each and every country.
In short , we need a world currency which is not USD or China dollar or Russian Ruble.
Okay …
And what economy would support it ?
What would be its fiscal policy ?
Where would it leverage sovereign debt from ?
How would it’s M2 supply and distribution be determined ?
These fancy ideas sound good for people who don’t under how fiat currencies work.
If you wanted to avoid any country’s influence you might as well use gold
But then there’s not enough good demand and supply to adequate represent the volatile nature of international finance
Hence why it was abandoned
In contrast a fiat currency actually does have said flexibility
The issue is a fiat currency doesn’t really have any real value devoid from an economy
Hence why it is necessary for whatever global currency exists to be tied to an actual real world economy
@@BasicLib Are you an American and want your currency to be strongest till the ends of time and beyond? If not, you can help try answering these questions that you have. If yes though , enjoy spending em dollars..
There are almost 5x less Americans than chinese. You did not adjust purchasing power correctly. Average daily wage in china is under 2$
I remember when they announced they eliminated poverty....... because "poverty" in china is something like 400 some dollars a year.
The rest of the world will be foolish to allow another nation (especially China) have the reserve currency especially given what they accuse the US of abusing that role and privilege.
EE Thanks for easy explanation.
But we’ve severely abused it
@@anthonyr1479 no
@@anthonyr1479 Not sure about abuse. The US does take advantage of their standing. This thing with Russia is the nuclear option every nation was worried about. The question is will other nations decide hitching their reserve currency to an authoritarian regime in China while they have to deploy tanks to defend banks is a good idea? I think not.
@@---jj9lf yes
@@Elementalism they didn't deploy tanks to their banks. The video was taken out of context as usual and the tanks weren't even close to any banks where the protests were actually happening. The tanks were filmed near a naval base.
Many institutions ditched some Euro for the dollar, which is why the USD is doing well
It's because the EU isn't doing well and the Ukraine war made it even worse.
Because the fed is raising rates in order to control inflation unlike many of the European central banks.
@@Miranox2 EU isn't doing bad either. It's like always slowly going by.
@@---jj9lf Isn't doing bad? Southern Europe is poised to default in the near future in an event that will dwarf the Greece default by a huge degree. This is why they're having to buy unlimited amounts of bonds to hang on to solvency for a finite period of time.
@@---jj9lf Losing the UK is pretty bad I'd say. The war is really bad too because several EU countries are dependent on Russian fuel.
If I can't have USD, I'd go for either the Euro or Pound, then Canadian Dollar imo
China artificially controls the amount of currency in circulation, in an extreme way. They also aren't shy about lying about any number being reported, whether it be domestic production, population projections, deaths from a virus, number of green projects, success of said projects, natural disaster casualties, man-made party-related casualties, state-sanctioned annual executions (projected to be the highest on the planet), etc.
The CCP changes numbers so frequently that not even party members can make proper decisions based off their own internally reported numbers.
With the Euro and USD at a matched exchange rate; I wonder what the plausibility of merging them under an international "dollar" is. Or permanently pinning them at a 1:1 exchange rate.
You forgot to talk about how the Chinese doubled the money supply in the past decade. Their banks are naughty!
The US quadrupled their money in last two years.
"China went from a country barely able to feed itself to the world's second largest economy in less time than the Simpsons has been on air."
And they still get foreign aid from other countries as they are a developing nation.
To be fair. A LOT of sacrifices were made.
Ecologically, ethically, politically, etc.
Their motto became "Economic growth at ALL costs!"
@@lightning35 when the "people" talks about "unhinged capitalism" they should consider China as reference instead of "the country they try to argue"
Slave labour
When something seems like its too good to be true it often is. Its unclear how the Chinese will fair in the coming decades.
My home currency is the Euro
and despite major setbacks , it has proven very resilient
if any currency was to be the backup if the USD collapsed , it would be the euro , not the Chinese RMB nor the Japanese Yen
After all, it is ~20% of the worlds reserves already, significantly below the USD at 60%, but also significantly ahead of 3rd place
Im surprised that there is so much talk about the RMB becoming the world's reserve but nobody is talking about the potential of the Euro ... when its already at 2nd place , and not only that , it's central bank the European Central Bank values currency stability over anything else and isn't beholdent to any single goverment , which means that one populist leader coming to power in one EU country cant just "printer go BRRRR"
US citizen here. I picked Euros as the alternative currency to receive pay in. It was an immediate gut reaction. As I thought more about it, I considered Pounds and Canadian Dollars, but came back to Euros. And the video nailed the reasons. The other two aren’t as widely accepted, but I trust all 3. I don’t trust the CCP or the Yuan at all. Maybe it’ll appreciate, but too big a risk factor.
It's scary how much Chinese money and influence rapidly destroyed the livelihoods of many average people in Cambodia especially in coastal Sihanoukville province. To be fair they did help us build infrastructure and that is very valuable, but its so enlightening to see most of them just yeet out of the country after we outlawed online gambling (goes to show what they're here for) . The locals could no longer afford housing in the city anymore since the price grew exponentially when Chinese investment came in. Now its a city of empty casinos. I highly doubt Chinese currency can become a global reserve currency because many developing countries dont trust them so much anymore.
I heard they did basically the same thing in the phillipines. The online gambling industry really hurt them bad.
@@peterdisabella2156 Oh they are doing similar things all over the world, especially Africa and South America.
They lend them money to massive infra structure projects (That is not build by locals but by Chinese workers so the money go straight back to Chinese pockets.), the projects turns out to not be that profitable, the countries can't pay China back... they now have to default and China just takes the land they build on, it's theirs now.
It's literally what happened to Sri Lanka and why they folded last month. And it looks like loads of countries will be doing the same, again... Mostly in Africa and South America. But also a lot of smaller asian countries.
It always collapses their local economies and make the local population suffer.
@@asgdhgsfhrfgfd1170 yeah pretty much hahaha it’s good Cambodia outlawed the gambling though….
@Zack Smith Bold of you to assume that I am okay with what the US is doing in the middle east.
I think this nation building that the US is doing is WRONG, I always hated it, I am firmly against it. I think it is a big reason why the entire west is now in the gutter, nobody benefitted. There was only suffering.
And I think this nation building that China is doing... Is also wrong.
Once again, nobody benefits, everybody suffers.
I am actually consistent because I think BOTH nations are equally wrong about this.
Also I am Danish, I live in Denmark. So neither nation represents me...
@Zack Smith bruh you missing the point. not talking abt US here
These EE videos have single-handedly helped me to better understand global economics. Thanks for your work!
Maybe we will end up with two world currencies. One for US aligned nations and one for China aligned nations.
I am shocked I did not subscribe earlier although I have been watching videos from this channel for the past few years!
3:30 Everyone misses the most major part of the Bretton Woods agreement, in this agreement the US agreed to use its military to police international waters protecting ships from piracy and foreign nations that aren't very kind. It was agreed that we would do this until communism was no longer a threat, this agreement has recently ended which is going to have considerable implication on both the US and foreign economies.
Looking at things, communism is a rising threat.
fair point on reliability of the US dollar, in regards to US sanctions, but what makes anybody think China wouldn't be just as bad?
China's currency is far less reliable, not more.
They would be worse without a doubt
europe and uk also sanctioned Russia, and still banks and other institutions are diversifing in pounds and euros too. not yuans.
Because... "US bad"?
Almost everyone believes China would be worse.
Wish there was a new episode every other day, I love this Chanel
That is just crazy! They are not a capitalist society who will every have the freedom of capital flows or the creditability in governance the rest of the world will require.
To be a desired reserve currency the world watches how your banks are performing. If there are reports of people who cannot even have a look at their own deposits let alone withdraw their savings, or that depositors in Henan have been cheated completely of their savings and yet got manhandled and arrested for protesting, then what kind of financial system is that? How can other nations become more trustful of the Renminbi when the banking system is so opaque and problematic?
@Zack Smith Get your 50 cents! :D
To the question asked "What currency other than your own country do you want to get paid in" My first immediate thought, is Swiss Franks.
LOL. As humans, I'm pretty sure all the Franks in Switzerland would object to being used as currency. I think its illegal as well. Francs make better currency.
So if the Yuan is in such a precarious position, could some other BRICS currency like Indian Rupees or Brazilian Reales be a more likely alternative reserve currency?
Always worth watching. Thank you.
Considering their housing market is about to be like a governmental brain aneurysm, I doubt they’ll become the reserve lol
But there will be people (non chinese citizen) gung ho about how great China is.
@@stephenc2481 most people don't take measures to educate themselves on the goings on of other countries, China was a rising star in the 2000s so many people use that as a basis for their beliefs, ignoring what is shaping up to be a Chinese great depression in the coming years (though that could certainly change)
@@ravenlordgoat2157 They're also on the precipice of the greatest demographic disaster in modern history.
Isnt their economy currently colapsing in general?
And they have
a) major economic slowdown
b) They are caught in the middle income trap, a demographic/economic bomb waiting to go off.
Please make video on public college and private colleges. And why public college perform bad when compared to private what is the economic factors
Private colleges are simply able to allocate more finances due to « not relying »on public finances. Although, this is a system that we shouldn’t be relying on, as it only creates more disparities in wealth because private universities can raise prices to unbelievable levels, such as what is happening in the US.
Largest Economy, but still considered a developing country by the UN and getting those sweet funds.
Thought you were saying "RnB: and all I could think of was Boyz 2 Men 🤣🤦♂️
With the new graphics your videos are even better: always competent and easier to follow
As a Dane, I would much rather be paid in Euros than Dollars.
I would love a second channel with the same topics but a lot longer and more in depth!
I hope ONDC and UPI alongside a large overseas population will make Indian rupees a popular choice too
It’s pegged to the USD. Might as well just convert it to USD or else people outside won’t value it the same.
EE is an excellent channel. Always look forward to new videos and this is a particularly interesting one!
3:30 mostly because other countries have shares ,bonds, whatever in that country
For the record the other currency I would choose would to be paid in is the Euro, the real second place reserve not the Yuan.
I think the real question is what currency people would choose after the Euro?
@@evancombs5159 Canadian Dollars, Yen, pounds? Lots of options there
@@nileshkumaraswamy2711 yes, that is what makes it a more interesting question. Almost everyone will say Euro as the number 2 after USD.
@@evancombs5159 right now I think I would go for the Yen.
Imagine being sanctioned by china by just sharing the meme of the Pooh the bear.
No, because China herself doesn’t want the yuan as a world reserves but I do see the economic bloc of BRICS creating a new currency.
If BRICS creates a single currency than the Western world will create a single currency.
Love the visuals in this video!
As an immigrant to the US from South America, meaning I deal with exchange rates all the time, I’d never pick the Yuan. The Pound Sterling or Euro would be my back up.
Interesting video! A little dated in my opinion. If speaking of the Yuan, their population demographics and decoupling must be talked about.
Spot on!
Their middle income trap aside. They have recently found out that most of China is a global warming hotspot.
China's mean temperature has risen by 0.26 degrees Celsius a decade since 1951, compared to the global average of 0.15 degrees and it is accelerating.
to be fair, US sanction other countries for reasons that goes against it interest, Venezuela, Cuba are the best examples of countries dealing with internal problems being sanctioned just for being antagonistic to US.
Yes, but those sanctions are usually predictable and rarely are used against democracies.
@@TheCowardRobertFord So? That still means no one can trust America.
@@TheCowardRobertFord 71 US embargo chile for elect a socialist president. later it paid for a coup
US sanctions always were used to make countries play ball, specially in latin america...
just look the nicaragua/el salvador contrast, nicaragua is being sanctioned for failing democracy, el salvdor, the bitcoin president abolish the congress and nothing happen....
it was never about democracy, is about power and control.
@Dennis Estrada So why should anyone trust you exactly when you allow Israel to do the same thing?
Really great work! I've learned a lot from this channel.. Thanks!!
I think the major problem of the Yuan is not the US Dollar but the ambiguous policies and the Chinese politics.