Is Nvidia (Still) Overvalued?
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 23. 06. 2024
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Last week, Nvidia overtook Microsoft and Apple to become the world's most valuable company, a feat which hasn't happened since 2011. So in this video, we'll explain how this vertiginous rise came about and ask whether this boom can last thanks to AI.
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1 - www.ft.com/content/1ec5523a-8...
2 - www.morningstar.com/news/mark...
3 - / fun_fact_nvidia_was_re...
4 - blogs.nvidia.com/blog/whats-t...
5 - www.economist.com/the-economi...
6 - www.ft.com/content/2ce59a81-6...
7 - www.economist.com/business/20...
8 - www.ft.com/content/e1beb7a5-6...
9 - www.ft.com/content/a60c3c7b-1...
Saying that nvidea used to focus on video games showing a ps5 and xbox when the console market is the only area where AMD may have an advantage over this company...
AMD also has an advantage in the under $1k PC price to FPS market
Yea, they could have shown an original Xbox or the PS3, the last home consoles to use an Nvidia GPU. Nintendo switch (and the upcoming switch 2) are the only presence Nvidia has on the console market right now, and those don't bring in a lot of profit as they are designed to use small chips and be as cheap as possible to produce.
To me that more than proves its being overvalued, contributing other companiesâ achievements, to Nvidia. Exactly like an investor would, for example PokĂ©mon did well so investors bought Nintendo stock.
TLDR in a nutshell
â@@JorgeLopez-qj8puwhile i get what you're saying nintendo does have actual direct connections with pokemon financially and in brand enough that pokemon doing well does have effects on nintendo profit
When there's a gold rush, sell shovels
Bro is speaking facts
FACS!
Indeed. Said the same to my brother yesterday when discussing Nvidia.
You use a 'panning pan' or 'gold pan' for gold rushes, not shovels.
I dont get it. Could you please explain?
Minor nitpick... Nvidia is only present in the Nintendo Switch, both Playstation and XBox use AMD. Nvidia is much more present on the PC gaming market, with their GPU dominating both Desktops and Laptops.
AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.
I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or, alternatively, seek advice from certified market strategists.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
Rachel Sarah Parrish is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. Youâd find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
Wow, her track record looks really good from what I found online.i just searched her name and messaged her and I also scheduled a call with her
Iâm just waiting for everyone to discover the current form of AI (LLM), although impressive technically, is not as useful as everyone thinks it is and the bubble finally bursts
Faxxxx broo!!
on the contrary, from hardware side we're barely scratching the surface of what we can do with AI, and LLM is just the basics
LLM AI is so obviously a bubble I can't believe tech companies don't know it.
Either investors are blinded by greed and forcing the companies down this dead end or executives plan to scam their investors and cash out before the bubble bursts.
AI: Solves 2000-year-old scroll burned at Pompeii.
This guy: Iâm just waiting for everyone to discover the current form of AI (LLM), although impressive technically, is not as useful as everyone thinks it is and the bubble finally bursts
AI: Cries single tear, head explodes.
No one even knows how to monetize it in a way that breaks even. That is a huge problem.
That title is gonna collect many views. well done
Riight đ
Pretty poorly done supplementary visuals on the video. Playstation/XBox are AMD, not Nvidia, either show a normal gaming gpu or a nintendo switch. "The Best Networks" shows an nvidia xavier, which is a SoC for robotics etc, not a spectrum-x switch or connect-x NIC....
Tell me they've got 0 tech knowledge without telling me they don't
â@@SeanSMSTlmao, give them some room. TLDR aren't really the best at choosing pictures to represent their point. Like they chose 2 consoles powered by AMD SoC for gaming.
They are looking for illustrative footage of "videogames" to cover this story to a mainstream audience. Showing an RTX GPU or some RGB'd up gamer rig would fail to land with an audience not intimately familiar.
These are conscious editorial decisions, not failures.
Seeing that Jetson made me cringe so hard I immediately went to the comments looking for anybody who spotted itđą
@@gigitrix I would be that audience. I expect the TDLR crew to know a thing or two about editing and journalism; I don't expect them to be gaming experts.
Short answer: Yes.
Long answer: Yeeeeeeeeees.
Itâs obviously overvalued BUT itâs not popping anytime soon as the prospects of AI hype in the near future is only going to increase
Well, Nvidia had been trading down in the last week or so
Why
@@personzorz don't know.
@@personzorz because it was in the news for being the most valued company. Same thing happened when it surpassed $1000 per stock before the split, it dropped to the mid 900 range following the news.
@@guss77correction are to be expected, investors would be more worried if it just went up and up without a few bumps in the road
Minor point that some others have pointed out... you said Nvidia's GPUs were mainly used in video games, but listed an Xbox and PS5, which use AMD GPUs!
This video indicates you don't need a high IQ to be a good investor, just 2 qualities, self discipline and a lot of patience. Investing is mostly about behavioral psychology. How can I generate more income to retire with at least $3m for long term care?
We share common goal, making sure you are ready for your later years is very important. That's why passive investing works, low costs, better diversification and it enables people to overcome their behavioral bias especially if they engage professional help.
It's unfortunate most people don't have such information. I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $45k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Doesn't matter if the economy is misbehaving; great wealth managers will always make returns.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with the popularly ââAmber Kay Wrightâ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. Sheâs quite known in her field, look her up.
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Amber appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled
I already own shares of NVDIA, PALANTIR, TSLA, and APPL as well. Sure, I don't mind having these equities sit around for a while, but I'd also like to appreciate short-term opportunities that could fetch $200,000 or less..
If you need advice on short-term investments, consider speaking with a financial advisor. They have a lot more knowledge and expertise in this area.
0pting for an inves-tment advisr is currently the 0ptimal approach for navigating the market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2022
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
Amber Michelle Smith is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. Youâd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip
I think it's a bit misleading to say they were primarily about GPU's for gaming prior to crypto. Consumer GPU's have very low margins. Nvidia's success is due to GPU sales for data centres and super computers. The professional grade GPU's are significantly more expensive and are bought in large volumes in many cases. Gaming GPU's are lower skew products that are basically a byproduct of their main focus.
The Cisco of this generation
It's already dropping nicely.
Cisco - routers and switches, easily copied and undercut. Nvidia - CUDA infrastructure, not so much.
Nvidia is at least 5 years ahead of competitors on a high demand product, sure, whatever you say
@@spiritualantisepticLol no it isnât
Right now, things seem odd. The US dollar is losing value due to inflation, but it is strengthening in comparison to other currencies and commodities like gold and real estate. Because they believe it to be safer, people are going to the dollar. I'm concerned that the rising inflation may lead my retirement funds to lose value. Where else could we put our cash?
Having a mentor is my personal recommendation. It seems like a good bet if you have limited market knowledge, but I'm not sure where you'll find an experienced one.
I concur. In light of individual experience working with a financial adviser, I presently have over $1m in a very much enhanced portfolio that has encountered dramatic development. It's not just a matter of having money to invest in stocks. you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to support your investment
Please who's this advisor that guides you?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've been stuck with *KAREN* *MARIE* *GENDRON* for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
Thanks for this. I just googled her name and found her webpage. I'm really impressed with her credentials and I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
It isnât usually the companies that make raw materials that are valued the most. Each company down the chain usually adds more value and makes more money because the cost of raw materials reduce over time, and given that NVIDIA are providing the AI tools for other companies to implement, it seems their position wouldnât hold.
Nvidia isnât making raw materials though, itâs very close to the end of the value chain since TSMC fabs its chips, and thereâs a whole ecosystem below related to lithography (see: ASML)
I feel investors need to be focus on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
I agree that there are strategies that can be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember years ago when I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k
This is definitely something I will consider! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
I work with Sharon Marissa Wolfe, who is a licensed fiduciary. Just look up the name. All the information you need to work with a letter to set up an appointment is included.
Sharon Marissa Wolfe is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. Youâd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
TLDR: Nope, itâs not overvalued. P/E Ratio ist still completely under control
Depends on AI is over-valued or not.
AI is gonna stay that for sure but what the upper end of this is unknown.
I say it is not. It's just misunderstood and people are hyping up the wrong types of AI. Forget gimmicks like ChatGPT. Those are overengineered search engines. The real money is in stuff like image recognition for pest control or farm automation. Which employs a lot of Nvidia Jetsons.
Everyone's losing money hand over fist with it. It doesn't look good.
@@personzorz LLMs are not all of AI. It's just what the public focuses on at the moment, there are many Machine Learning applications that are profitable and currently useful, and the technology is developing quickly right now
I actually had Nvidia in 2000 and then I sold it in 2000 đ I could have been the millennial version of a crypto bro by now if I had just waited 24 years
"second-tier semiconductor company known for giving Call of Duty better resolution" - seems like author of this reads Prof Galloway :)
Really disagree on "second-tier" take - NVidia might be overvalued (I think it is), but it was a massive player in chips space before AI boom.
Yes it is. The only "A.I" there is, is artificial inflation of company's stock value.
At this moment, things appear to be odd. Inflation is reducing the value of the US dollar, but it is strengthening in comparison to other currencies and commodities like real estate and gold. People are switching to the dollar because they believe it is safer. I worry that the rising cost of living may cause the value of my retirement savings to decline. We could put our cash anywhere else.
Having a mentor is my personal recommendation. It seems like a good bet if you have limited market knowledge, but I'm not sure where you'll find an experienced one.
I concur. In light of individual experience working with a financial adviser, I presently have $1m in a very much enhanced portfolio that has encountered dramatic development. It's not just a matter of having money to invest in stocks. you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to support your investment
Please who's this advisor that guides you?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've been stuck with *KAREN* *MARIE* *GENDRON* for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
Thanks for this. I just googled her name and found her webpage. I'm really impressed with her credentials and I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
Yeah.
IMO, the only way you can determined if Nvidia is overvalued by comparing it to its competitors. The main competitor is AMD, which has a 3x higher PE ratio.
Most of all the computing power in the world is going to come via. Nvidia in the next few decades. The moat is strong.
is my pee pee poo poo overvalued?
Yeah, that's why is being shorted
No way to speak about your mother
No, and don't let anyone convince you otherwise. Your pee pee poo poo is extremely valuable.
This video has lowkey the best financial adivice on youtube "dont take financial advice from youtubers"
CRAAAAZY TLDR does it again
When, not even IF AI market gets a well deserved correction, so will NVIDIA. Tech bois love another tech bubble.
kind of shaky on that Nvidia history. Wrong consoles and most of their sales were for desktops and laptops. NVida actually pushed back against cryptomining, and only embraced it a tiny bit after investor pressure (they actively sabotaged the hash rate on their GPUs to try to discourage using them for cryptomining).
Also you make it sound like NVIDIA accidentally conquered the AI market when it had been researched at the company since 2009 and they company pretty much cast most their chips into AI around 2016 or so (pre-crypto boom).
Nvidia are a greedy company. This was present in the 30 series and especially the 40 series
So glad I bought in before the boom, cleared my buy in cost and am now sitting on dividends, I see ai being around for a minute regardless of the financial successes and nvidia in the right place to capitalize the effort.
The thing about CUDA not being available on other
As of now you other kind of emulation software that can do that for you, running CUDA codes on Radeon hardware (ZLUDA)
Man, I can't wait for this "AI" bubble to pop
Yes! The market is always over valued or undervalued. In time itâll have a a correction
Imo, all tech stocks, especially American ones, are significantly overvalued; how can Tesla have twice the market cap as Toyota when it doesn't even deliver a sixth of the cars, Netflix today is just a glorified cable network like HBO, Google+Apple+Microsoft+Meta have not come out with any new innovations for over a decade now (Metaverse was an utter shitshow), and Amazon has over 10x the market cap of Alibaba which have a similar reach (granted they serve richer Americans and Europeans). Nvedia is just the next wonderkid of American companies valued over 250 billion that isn't burning cash into an endless pit like Uber.
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She's a licensed broker here in the statesđșđž and finance advisor.
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The issue with Nivdia is, they only sell general purpose hardware. But LLMs are pretty much dominated by only a few players, it is almost guaranteed specialized hardware will be developed (for example i would imagine Google will for sure prefer TPUs, they only purchase Nvidia chips because they have other cloud customers).
Thus IMO, Nvidia is high risk unless they have other significant revenue streams.
Wait. Does the heavily modified voice in the intro say "stonks"? đ
the timing of this video is impeccable NVIDIA just lost 500 billion dollars, biggest ever for any company in 3 days
NVDIA is relatively safe because they actually produce something tangible... even when the AI bubble pops, those chips have use... can't say the same about Microsoft
Bro forgot his own comments how NVIDIA went from $300 to $1k because they bet on intangible product will increase the value of their tangible product
AI because the new big thing right about the time that everyone realised nfts were hot garbage that wasted energy for no benefit, which was very convinient for nvidia. I wonder what new excuse for arrays of thousands of gpus slurping up electricity they will come up with once the companies realise AI is nowhere near as good as they were told it was.
CUDA is compatible (in 95% of cases) with other chips. You just need to download a patch (ZLUDA) and you're good to go.
But nvidia obviously wants to keep it's market monopoly, so they won't tell you this.
While there are solutions almost identical to CUDA that work for any GPU, people just mostly stick to CUDA, because people mostly own nvidia GPU anyway and the cycle continues.
So, the average consumer pays extra for less.
It depends
If the tech pans out, its actually undervalued. Of course, that's for the future to tell.
AI systems boost to economic productivity is potentially something that could lifts almost all sectors of the economy.
Iâm not an expert but the quick rise is beginning to (to my limited knowledge) a bubble.
bubbles always pop
I've been off the opinion that Microsoft and especially Apple have been overvalued for years. Nvidia has to be to compete
Does p/e even matter in modern world
Thanks for that
I just use the value increase as a measuring stick for inflation. An increase in 40% mean my dollar lost 40% of its value
I believe A.I is here to stay due to the wide application it has it will revolutionise almost every industry thatâs including phone companies, space exploration, manufacturing and many more
actual TLDR: yes
I gave up on trying to predict what the stock of Nvidia will do, after I sold half of my shares for 4 times the price I paid for them. (So whatever happened with the other half, I got double my money). Then it just kept on rising.
"Don't take investment advice from youtubers" Thanks for the advice!
Over-valued is underrated.
This time AI is not hype.
Machine is going to become more intelligent than every human in every tasks in few years.
As an AI engineer I will just say "LoL"â@@Charvak-Atheist
â@@abhikanur9606creating anime images doesn't make you an ai engineer
Specifically large language models have limits. We need good data and we've run out. It's why they've started using Reddit posts for some god forsaken reason.
This all depends on how much you think the current AI mania is real. Itâs obvious that AI is overhyped is guaranteed to underdeliver. When companies find that out, theyâre going to deal with massive AI chip inventory, that may take a year or so though for nvidiaâs revenue to fall off a cliff
Sounds like the government should go after those monopolistic practices
Funny you say video games, because AMD has been dominating the console market for the past few years and is slowly taking over the PC market. NVIDIA's top priority should be to invest that money as best as possible. Possibly starting to design RISC-V chips or something else.
Yes
No, a competitor doesn't need to beat them on the performance of their ecosystem. They just have to be better in terms of price over performance, i.e. a chip that is half as good in terms of performance but costs only 40% would do the trick. Considering the eye watering margins Nvidia is charging, that won't be too far off, since Microsoft, AMD, Intel and Google are all developing competing offerings.
V pleased I bought Nvidia shares 7 years ago! Wish I bought more ha x
I just hope all the pension funds get out before the bubble bursts.
Them getting out will burst the bubble, surely?
Western pensioners have too much wealth anyway, ain't feeling sorry for them.
"burst the bubble before the bubble bursts"
@davidrobertson9174 Possible. So the smart move is be the first to get out before someone else pops it.
TL;DR Yes
Tenho interesse em investir, mas ainda nĂŁo encontrei o investimento certo para fazer. eu apreciarei qualquer ajuda aqui.
sugiro que vocĂȘ negocie com a Sra. Carterine Coley.
Isso nĂŁo vai incomodĂĄ-lo quando vocĂȘ lidar com uma profissional como a Sra. Cartherine Coley.
é bom ver alguém falando sobre a Sra. Cartherine Coley, ela é uma façanha no mundo do comércio.
Ela realmente fez um bom nome para si mesma. Por favor, em qual plataforma posso contatĂĄ-la?
Quem Ă© essa corretora profissional de que todos estĂŁo falando e como posso contatĂĄ-la diretamente?
Tesla has the most advanced AI tech. Imagine what will happen to Tesla once self driving is activated on all Tesla cars.
That is if they can reach there in time with all the trouble, you know who, is in
Stock prices have always been ostensibly overvalued especially when AI is hyped up. They portait AI as garish whizzy technology which would revolutionize the world. May be it does but not in the short term.
Transformer models are come to and end,so
It shat itâs pants at open yesterday
Lol, it did. Maybe tldr spooked the market
The stock price makes sense to people who think the AI investment supercycle will last a long time. But if AI failed to monetize and investment slows, I think it will crash just like crypto.
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i guess the $3T question is who's the next Nvidia? AMD, Intel, someone else?
Apple
Nvidia may be overpriced for now, but long term outlook for Nvidia is great. Current AI is just the beginning. Apple and Tesla could potentially weaken Nvidiaâs position. Intel and AND are behind, but could limit Nvidiaâs future profit potential.
UNDERVALUED!
on a fwd p/e basis, it's cheap.
By the way GPUs are vital in supercomupters,servers, simulations and CGI... Saying it's just for video games is just very wrong.
There's a lot wrong in this video. They completely skipped the release of CUDA in 2007 and skipped straight to crypto and AI, which were only made possible by CUDA. As well as the use in supercomputers and simulations, which also use CUDA.
@@Marco_Onyxheart because the massive recent rise in Nvidia's stock is because of Crypto and AI, not because of CUDA.
ai is overrated, but if that results in big revenues for nvidia then i wouldnt really call them overvalued, just that their huge value is dependent on ai hype, which itself could be temporary
Nvidia is a bubble like Tesla. Apple has been doing AI since 2017. And is btw bigger producer of high end processors than NVIDIA đ
Dotcom bubble 2.0
Is Nvidia a Bubble? Might have been better clickbait
But this title is more accurate
Yes it is overvalued. Companies wont be buying these chips forever and competition will kick in.
You skipped a whole decade that's of vital importance to the story. It's CUDA which came along in 2007. And you completely ignored this part. CUDA allowed the GPUs to be used for non-graphics workloads, which yes, includes crypto mining, but also many other tasks. Then came the AI boom, which GPUs and especially CUDA were very well-suited for. Crypto mining is barely even relevant in this story.
This is the Tesla crowd all over again, cept now its Nvidia đ. Every video I see on CZcams putting a halo on Nvidia is under 33 & wasn't around when the Dot com bubble burst. Good luck young men. Try to think long term
I'm glad to see this actually works I'm Kenyan ..been studying forex and crypto for the past one year .I use price action..so my question is what is the best strategy.... ichimoku cloud, moving average or price action
Bad news for gamers. I honestly think the RTX 5000 series will be the last of its kind/price.
Also, whoever watched the Jensen Huang speech on COMPUTEX 2024, knows how dystopian it all felt.
Everything is overvalued at the top but people belive in them and that is what matters
đ
Doesn't this behavior set a dangerous precedent that nothing in the economy matters any more because all we do is pumping money into giant corporations with the hope of cashing out big time?
I mean, none of this serves any purpose to make the life of normal people any better and you know, this is the reason a free market even exists. It was supposed to be the best way of making a country and it's people wealthier.
Nvidea bubble.
guys its not a bubble :clueless:
The US should just make Taiwan a new territory, like Guam.
was* Nvidia overvalued. Yes it was.
Monopolies are never good. NVidia will get corrupt and complacent like every other monopoly always does.
Clearly overvalued but everything else is overvalued
It doesnât make anywhere near the money apple makes
1 word = BIDENOMICS
You guys truly went "TLDR" on talking about Nvidia but showing game consoles that don't even use Nvidia! LMAO lazy
This channel grew up giving last minute book reports based on the summary on the back the book.
I like potato chips lol
Just a bit :-)
Sell Nvidia stock!! It is a tulip moment!
Riding the AI wave with no competitors. Are they overvalued? Nah, theyâre going to be insanely profitable for the next decade at the very least.
No it is not overvalued.
NVIDIA didn't just get into AI in the last five years; CUDA was introduced in 2006, for example. They were angling their hardware towards AI development in the 2010s (along with other GPU computing applications like crypto), while their competitors were focused on gaming. NVIDIA's gains here are them cashing in on their investment