I almost always find myself agreeing with you. Most of the people I know are rural farm types, and they've seen the negative headlines and fud, and still think EVs are only suitable for short range city stuff etc. Plus like you said they just don't want to change
Yes, it's a really great vehicle, my wife primarly drives it now. But just watch out for the first time you open the rear hatch in a garage, that spoiler edge can hit, I had to adjust mine lower.
I for one do want a E.V... But at this time i don't have a need for a new car or have the money for one... As long as the car that i got is in good shape i see no need to go out and get a new or used one... And i would think that a lot of people are in a similar situation.
Several things need to happen in order for EV adoption to become much more widespread in the US. Fortunately, all of them are about to happen over the next few years: -EV’s will get both cheaper and better, making them more competitive with ICE vehicles. -Public charging will improve, as all the non-Tesla brands adopt NACS next year, and public chargers get built out over the next several years. -Something most don’t know about, or see coming: Aptera will hit the market next year and begin ramping up production. There is a high likelihood that Aptera will be phenomenally successful - and as solar and battery technology continue to improve, Aptera‘s business model may eventually revolutionize the EV and automotive industry.
I agree with your all-the-above explanation, but I would add the politicization of electric vehicles. The left-right divide limits the size of the community where driving an electric car is socially acceptable.
Not just that, but for Tesla specifically Elon is severely limiting his customer base. The right is politicizing EVs, and Elon is doing everything he can to stop people on the left from buying Teslas. This isn't "I support Republicans" speech, this is racist, anti-LGBTQ, and anti-Ukrainian / pro-Russian propaganda that Elon is now spreading. It's one thing to ask someone to buy a car from someone who is Republican, it's another thing to buy a car from someone continuously attacking groups of people that are friends/family/themselves.
As a conservative I did not consider the amount of blowback from friends I would get buying an EV. I just think they're cool (they are). I can imagine the truck guys...
I agree you see it with hybrids, the same middle of America people who love hybrids now, hated them when they were seen as the vehicles of liberals. Now evs are the boogie men.
I'm conservative and just bought a Tesla but when anyone tries to apply force like our current administration would desire to do it causes more problems then it solves. Just need to be patient for costs to drop further and for more people to get experience with them.
There are a lot of factors at play, but I think you underestimate the effect of higher interest rates. It's not just that it potentially makes your monthly payment higher, but getting a loan is harder now as auto loan rejection rates are at a record high as banks worry over the risk of defaults. And there are a lot of add-on effects down the line of the economy that also have an effect on how people and businesses are spending, or rather NOT spending, money. Businesses are not spending money because money is more expensive to borrow. That means jobs are in a precarious situation and people may be less likely to make a big purchase like a car when they're not sure if they'll still have their jobs in a month.
EVs are far more simpler than gas. I just plug mine in when I got home and unplugged it in the morning. Got so used to it that I forgot how gas stations work and when I had a rental I got frustrated with a Chevron gas station that was out of order and had to drive to another gas station that was out of my way. Only bad thing about my EV was that it was a Chevy, the battery kicked the bucket, and the dealership dragged out the process of replacing the battery and kept lying. I took it in enough times that I got the dealership to buy it back. Wish I still had it with a functioning battery.
The thing is, most people don't have the home charging experience. Most people will be stuck dealing with public charging for the foreseeable future and that's a major friction point. Especially for people who rent and don't own a home. In that scenario is very much NOT far more simple than gas unfortunately. And that is the scenario for the majority. Charging infrastructure still has a very long way to go in terms of that.
Yeah EVs make a lot more sense if you can charge from home. But yes many don't have the option. Some are renting, some are in apartments, or just have street parking
@@TailosiveEV ev is outdated 1830 technology compared to newer 1860 technology aka internal combustion lol. anyone pushing ev is trying to put the buggy before the horse total idiots. lol these batteries just dont have the energy density to compare to gasoline also they are more costly to manufacture and repair and own a operate.
Hey Ho! I think Tailosive has the Point correct; there is a finite number of people who are willing to make the switch. This writer is of the category of 'I cannot get rid of the gas car fast enough'.
I drive old cars. I know Toyotas and what it will take to keep them running to 200K mi+. I know who can fix stuff. I don't have the same ecosystem for old Teslas yet, so it seems riskier.
I'm interested in buying an EV but am waiting for my current ice car to die. It doesn't make financial sence for me to replace my ice car since it still works.
Public charging is far too expensive. Public charging profit is about 30% while gas profit is only 3%. That’s because public charging often doesn’t have high margin snack foods and impulse items for sale. We need more chargers at 7-Eleven, Circle-K, and RaceTrack to reduce charging rates.
For me it's simple. Awesome new batteries and improved platform just ahead so I don't want an obsolete model. This doesn't exist in ice car world, almost no change yr to yr..
Awesome new batteries and improved platforms will continue for the next 25+ years. Therefore, you’ll never buy an EV. Use laptops or cell phones as an example of continuous improvement over 25 years. That didn’t stop anyone from buying and upgrading later.
Personally, I would *not* get a full EV, only a hybrid. See, I live in an apartment with no garage or even outdoor outlets. So, no home charging. In addition, most of the public chargers in my area are only level 2 and are restricted to employees/ customers of the establishment. My employer doesn’t have any EV charging. So, in my case our vehicle has to be either ICE or a hybrid that can fully charge the battery exclusively from the gasoline engine and regenerative breaking. I have no way to charge it otherwise. As long as there are pockets in this country like where I live, there will be places where EV adoption doesn’t make sense. 🤷
I think people who aren’t shopping for an EV are not even aware how drastically Tesla reduced their prices, and have written off pricey EV ownership. A Model Y on par with mainstream crossovers was a surprise to me. If Tesla keeps prices this low regardless of interest rates, word will get out.
I think you hit the nail when you mentioned there's just not enough savings going ev. In places where EV adoption is higher is places where owning an ice vehicle is way more expensive due to high gas prices, taxes, fees etc.
I agree wholeheartedly with focusing less on the "it's cheaper 5 years down the road". In this economy, that is literally useless. The upfront cost is the only thing that matters to anyone who's not rich. That plus yeah charging infrastructure still has a ways to go. All the people who need the 5-30k EVs are also the same people who need not just public charging to expand, but very specifically apartment garage charging. And that will take YEARS to make any major headway unfortunately.
I think you hit the nail on the head with your analysis. I would also add that there's only a small percentage of people who actually buy new vehicles. And when you look deeper into who many of these people are, they're very different than your typical EV owner. For example, women are far more likely to buy a new vehicle. Yet women only make up 25% of EV drivers. Another example is that people over the age of 55 are far more likely to buy a new vehicle. And how many of them care about 0-60 times, big infotainment screens, etc.? I can't imagine my 70 year old mother wanting to switch over to an EV anytime soon. An Escape or RAV4 is what she wants.
another thing that is killing EV adoption is the energy companies that is constantly jacking up rates like PGE. driving my model Y is the same as driving a prius now in terms of dollar spent to miles. but i still have to pay a lot more for insurance for the tesla.
I think people hear all these stories from China of 15-18k EVs and want cheaper prices, as evidenced by how demand rises when some EVs are discounted. Other issue is that unfortunately, charging outside home in some areas can be very expensive, the fast charging I mean. Gas car industry is not sleeping too and with hybrids and more efficiency even if you cannot do miracles, now they eat less and less gas so with expensive fast charging it may be hard to justify both slower charging speed compared to gas and also same or even higher prices per mile/km... But I think mainly EVs should move in lower priced segments too, this is where a lot of 2nd cars for a family are that do not do much long travel and they could be very good at this stage as city cars if you can charge at home, if they are priced accordingly/we get to price parity with ICE
2 more reasons... 1) the FUD has actually started to work... 2) Most people just don't have money... let alone spending on something they are not 100% on board with
Interested in a Model Y but my family only has 1 car now. I work from home, wife stays at home with our 4 kids young kids and we drive a 2022 AWD VW Atlas that cost $38,000 new and an Urban Arrow Cargo Bike. Don't need a second car at the moment. Earlier in my family I would have lept at a model Y, at the current price they are but it's too small now, needs to be cheaper to be a second car, or Tesla needs to make a Van or Armored Personnel Carrier variant of the cybertruck.
I think another think that is not helping is that people hear about ev companies going out of business and think that all ev companies will go under and think their car will suddenly stop working
I agree with your analysis. One anecdote: I bought a 2013 Nissan Leaf in 2015 (2 years old) for $10,000. My wife said, "Why did you buy that thing?" Now, it is basically her car - because she NEVER has to go to a gas station nor a public charging station. She just plugs it into a standard 120v 15 amp circuit in the garage. We just use it around the Seattle metro area. Less hassle for her. For me, it is less cost and less maintenance. Since 2015, all that I have done is: charge it at home, fill windshield washer fluid, add air to the tires, and replace windshield wiper blades. No visits to a dealer nor any other automotive service provider. No oil changes nor filter changes. I have pre-ordered an Aptera - which would replace the Leaf. I may be replacing our Subaru Forester this summer with a Tesla Model Y or X. I live in Guaymas Sonora in winter and Seattle, Washington in summer. Gas prices are high in Guaymas - 24.89 Pesos per liter (about $US5.69 per gallon and residential electricity is cheap 1.11 Pesos per KwH (about $US0.055). The Subaru can go 30 miles on $5.69 of gas. If the Leaf was here, it could go 300 miles on the same money. In Seattle, the current gas price at Costco is $4.43 and electricity is about $0.12 per KwH. Same 30 miles with the Subaru, but the same money would propel the Leaf further $4.43 / 0.12 = KwH * 3 miles/KwH = 110 miles on the same money in Seattle.
What do you mean EVs age well? The depreciation for EVs in my opinion is insane like that’s a reason I would not buy a current EV and only consider leasing one.
@@TailosiveEV No offense but what vehicles are you looking at. Yes some gas cars depreciate like crazy like BMWs or Mercedes and if you believe Tesla’s are luxury vehicles I can see your point. But when a model Y used to be close to 70 but now a new one cost 54 for a similar spec making your two year old used car maybe worth 45-50 if that is not normal. No mass market car loses that much value and most average households can’t afford that. I used the performance because the lose value is extreme but it to an extent applies to regular vehicles as well. Look at depreciation charts for Tesla vs other brands. My personal vehicles have been Toyota/ Honda so that’s my point of comparison and in my opinion I would only consider leasing cause you loose too much depreciation in the short term and in the long term I don’t know about battery life/ costs. Tesla could theoretically just decided to turn off supercharging access if they decided the batteries have degraded past a certain point which I personally do not feel comfortable with. They currently do not have the track record of making long lasting vehicles that Japanese brands have and well the other American manufacturers do not instill much confidence in them either. All that being said if you plan to use your vehicle for 7-10 years and can survive with standard range using LFP I understand and would be comfortable recommending to the right people. In my opinion range anxiety (for standard range)/ my lead foot which will cause me to have to charge every 2-3 hours on a road trip are deal breakers for me.
I think one of the biggest issues EVs have is working for people that rent their homes. I think there are many millions of people that would love to own an EV, and might even have the funds to purchase one, but if they don’t have access to a convenient charging option because they rent their home, EVs are off the table.
When we bought our Kia ICE car 11 years ago, we didn't think much about it except that we wanted an SUV that could accommodate cargo and child seats for family trips. We also wanted it to be reasonably stylish and affordable. So we walked into a dealership, haggled for hours, and bought a new car. For the past four years I have been a Tesla fan and investor, learning more about the company, its products, and its businesses. I plan to buy a refreshed Model Y in the second half of next year. I expect it will have greater range, reliability, and autonomous driving capabilities than their vehicles do today. As an engineer, I can appreciate the many advantages Tesla offers its customers. However, most of my friends and family don't think about cars much beyond their appearance and reputation. Tesla, electric cars, and Elon have a reputation problem. Many people are saying terrible things about them. This makes most people unfamiliar with Tesla uncertain about their products. Uncertainty is not something most people want when buying a car. Better the devil that you know than the devil that you don't, as the saying goes. ICE cars are the devils that most of us know. Hybrids offer some environmental and societal benefits while maintaining their devilish familiarity. If I were not an engineer and an informed Tesla fan, I might have considered a hybrid as well. Most well meaning folks are probably planning to buy a hybrid before buying a fully electric vehicle, if they are planning at all. Hybrids don't inspire envy, rage, vandalism, coal rolling, micro-aggressions, and terrorist acts. Hybrids are not falsely slandered left and right as both too woke/sustainable and too unsustainably resource intensive. People want their cars to be socially and emotionally safe as well as physically safe. It will take more family and friends with Teslas, more butts in seats experiences, better information, more heartfelt conversations, and better cheaper models before most American car buyers have the clarity and confidence to spend tens of thousands of dollars on an electric car, especially one as controversial as a Tesla.
Drew, you have made an excellent point. We may have reached the point of ICE haters or EV enthusiasts. I reached that point 7 years ago frustrated with periodic maintenance costs on MB, BMW, Porsche, etc. Charging at apartments & HOA’s remains a big problem.
Yeah it all the things you spoke of like interest rates, price of Evs, potential gas savings, charging times, can you home charge, early adopters already have their Ev(Plateau) etc... I remember when i got my model 3 in 2019 that Supercharger rates were half the cost of today's rates, i obviously charge mostly at home but for those depending on Superchargers to charge up it's not much savings if any. Evs need to come down in price, get better fast charging times without major degradation of the battery, also battery and parts replacement prices are something that might not have been mentioned but is a elephant in the room. If something was to happen out of warranty to your battery or parts of the car then all those gas savings go out the door. This is a major issue that needs to be addressed to make the decision to switch a lot more easier. So to reiterate they need to bring prices down but still build a compelling and well built vehicle that will last, decrease public charging times (CATL), lower supercharger rates, lower battery and parts replacement cost. Plus this isn't a Tesla problem but in the U.S it seems like certain parts of the country have ridiculously high electricity rates which doesn't help. Going to switch my electricity TOU plan and take advantage of the Ultra low off peak rates at .03 KWH better than the .09 I'm paying right now.
this is why I think advertising now makes sense. Not so much in selling more. just more in educating people. Show them the numbers, explain how charging works, show them the software. There's still a lot of people out there that are on the fence I think. there is still a lot of people with range anxiety.
Yeah you're right. The demand for these "contemporary" big battery bank EVs are hitting a plateau, EV demand is simply a manner of finite personal logistics, stretched upon the entire population. Many people can't fathom the maintenance and power demands of a voltage hungry, 4500+ pound "Sedan", that's about the same mass as a full cab ICE Truck, and EV trucks are even heavier than those. The concept of having an electric car being a 1:1 conversion of the modern "Every Role Car" has always baffled many people, including myself Funny you mentioned Aptera, they're basically the next breakthrough in EV market. An EV you don't ever physically *Need* to plug in is the most appealing thing to the vast majority of the country that... can't find a place to plug their car into. Unlike a lot of other EV tech startups, Aptera built their entire production line to be as cost efficient as possible, so they're basically set financially for the forseeable future. (unlike Rivian, which has to restructure itself because the founder $$$ tap is closing up.) I love it. I want an Aptera unconditionally, but the pricing is still really freaking up there for the majority of america's citizens, even with financing.
It’s definitely a combination of what you mentioned here that explains the decline in EV sales. The biggest one being that Tesla and other EV makers are running out of new EV enthusiasts to sell cars to. People in the EV space sometimes forget that we’re still in the early adopters phase for the EV market, even though Tesla has been mass producing cars for over a decade now. Getting people to adopt EVs is simply not going to be as fast as say the smartphone market due to the sheer cost of owning a car.
My family got teslas one at a time until we all had them. Finally we're trying a Ford Mustang mach e too since we like EVs not necessarily just teslas. I love my model y with all my heart though, got it used.
You are right that general public acceptance might take some time especially when people are so used to filling up gas cars in no time and dont want to wait 20 mins even for an 80% charge. Not to mention people are afraid of the costs to replace batteries and the fact rhat lot of people live in apartments where charging is not available. That said, the current marco environment do play a part since car payments are becoming much more expensive and wages are not keeping up with the general cost of living. People also worry about possible recession and layoffs and are playing it safe before maing a big purchase. Time will tell but the futre is still EV imo.
It will just take some time for most of us. I needed a new vehicle as my 98 old's was showing it's age and I would have liked to have gotten an EV, but was not suitable for me. I own my house, but it has curbside parking and no way to home charge. The only public charging in my city is a 6.3 kw charger that I didn't bother to find out what the rates were for costs. Even when I go to the larger cities, the chargers location would add a half hour driving time and then add charging time on top of that. If I bought a Tesla the closest service center is 4 hours each way if I needed to utilize that and a high tow bill if it needed hauled. In Feb of this year I purchased a vehicle with cash (interest rates don't mean anything to me) and in 10 years when I am ready for a new vehicle things should be much improved on the EV front. I hope to get one then. I do have an electric bike that I can use for my around town needs in decent weather in the meantime.
My biggest pet peeve is the vehicle registration TAX! In my opinion, vehicle registrations should be done once and only reregistered if sold/new purchase. Anything after that is just a TAX. The prices in some states where it’s $500-$1k+ is a huge problem and needs to be addressed asap. Owning a vehicle in general is getting to be unsustainable. Robotaxis to the rescue!!!
Yup. FUD in news over years is def a part. We were unsure if we wanted to buy a Tesla since it makes it look like we “spent $70k on one” even if prices were down in 40s
How long does it take to charge my EV? No idea. I plug it in when I get home and it is programmed to finish charging at the time I leave for work. So however much time you spend driving to a gas station and waiting in line and pumping gas and driving back is how much more time you spend "charging" your car than I do.
PG&E Rate hikes have me looking at a Ford Maverick Hybrid now. I cannot substantiate a 16k investment in solar since the break even is 5 years from now.
I thinkyour spot on. The early adopter limit has been reached. Now the cars have to get better, by which I mean more practical not more luxurious or more faster. For example we have a caravan. I've looked and even in UK there's not a good caravan towing ev that will tow a reasonable distance on a charge.
Got a 2022 red Model 3 long range from hertz auto sales with 85.000 miles on it for 22.000$ Utility company rebate worth 4000$ and a coming IRA tax credit of 4000$. Getting a Tesla with the many improvements including the Ryzen CPU made a lot of sense to me. They had some 26.000$ teslas too with 60.000 miles or less, but they didnt qualify for the tax credit. .
Hi Drew, I think it’s a combination of all items you mention. In addition, in 10/2023 setup free demo drives for the Model 3 and Model Y. First, the experience was so much better than any experience I ever had. Everything can be done through the Telsa app to setup the drives at any location, etc. Second, there is no sales pressure to buy. Telsa let me drive the cars by myself and return. Then we briefly discussed within the lounge area. The drive to technology and overall feel is far more advanced as compared to any ICE or other EV’s. I did not buy a Telsa because I am waiting on my Aptera as #617.
Yes, the 3rd generation model will help with EV adoption, but right now, supply is outstripping demand. Also, when they refresh the Model Y, that will create greater demand.
Adoption of disruptive technologies is never a perfect ramp up curve; there will be ups and downs for the seeable future. What to look for is the continued averaging upward trend. Personally, I feel the current price point for EV are still too expensive for most families. Especially for families to try something new. The EV charging woes (lack of charging infrastructure and the higher cost of charging at those chargers) for renters (non-home owners) is a real deal breaker.
Another thing is that a lot of people who might be up for EV ownership just aren't ready to buy a new car. I bought my Kia Soul in May 2019, I have less than 30,000 miles on it and just don't see the point in a new daily driver until I'm over 100,000 miles. That said, I think seeing how things are going with existing EVs will be important. The first generation of EVs have had their share of problems because its a new technology. Tesla had its quality issues and Ford, and other legacy manufacturers are struggling with battery technology. As time goes on, EVs become trouble free and people see happy EV owners, adoption will increase.
perfect example - of my immediate family -- siblings on mine and my wives side and grandparents we have 36 cars in the family 1 EV that's 2.7%....... they all thought I was crazy for getting a tesla etc.
I think you hit the nail on the head. I think people are way to much on the "we just need to educate them" band wagon and need to understand there are tradeoffs still between ICE and EVs and many people are not going to pick an EV. Charging infrastructure is still very immature and creates barriers in many locations.
You register an EV and it might cost $200 or $300 more than a ICE car, but honestly you're still saving a hell of a lot of money vs. gas. Hoping Aptera is coming soon. I really like the logic of this vehicle. Solar charging for the most part or just plugging into a 120 outlet. No need for a powerwall or supercharger at home. Faster charging on the road as well. Very good video on thoughts of why EV sales are dropping off. That's the thing as well... If EVs age better and are more reliable years down the road, the USED market will be full of cheaper EVs and the demand for a new EV will drop off naturally.
not advertising perse but education. tesla and every company that makes an ev should put out fact based snippets (30 sec - 1 min "commercials") educating the public on evs. including debunking a lot of these myths the general public has like batteries catching fire and such
I think the FUD started with Toyota has been huge. They wanted hybrids and news article after news article is pro hybrid and con EV. I think this has been very effective because the same people who love hybrids now, hated them before evs came to the market.
I’d love to switch. But I am a single 28 year old man renting an apartment (purchasing a house in this market is comical) so I have no where to charge except the supercharger down the road (which I’m not doing because of long-term affects on battery health) and everyday goods and services are generally more expensive (makes it harder to save so I can pay cash for a vehicle). Therefore, my paid off 2013 Chevy Cruze with 165,000 miles will do for now. Even with no auto or student loans, putting my money into a new vehicle now would not be a smart financial decision. Maxing out my Roth contributions and investing is more important than ever nowadays. But the temptation to get a new whip is definitely there. Believe me. The day I can ditch a combustion engine and a legacy auto maker will be one of the best days of my life.
Whole heartedly agree. Such common sense... It's crazy to me that more people don't acknowledge this. Only point of disaggrement: I think advertising cd play an outsized role in convincing more "normies" that EVs are superior to gas cars. EVs are new and unknown: advertising does help to close some of that information gap. But I agree that there are still many many people for whom advertising would have no effect. And also agree that interacting with friends and family wi have the biggest impact.
1 year in and i will admit there was a learning curve....yes i can charge at home and it has made it very easy to change my ways....apartment dwellers may have a harder transition untill more infrastructure is built...it wont be long....all i can say is that ICE can now only ever be entertainment or purpose use only....daily commutes, and for people with homes to charge at evs are hard to beat
You make very good points. I've always said the ev industry needs to do a lot more to educate ppl about evs and how they work. I follow this stuff a lot and I'm planning on getting a R2 but even I have questions
There is three main reasons for this, the spread of misinformation, the price of a new vehicle is too expensive and price of public charging. Here in Ireland the AA did a survey on 1,000 people and a massive 50% of those people believe that a battery in an EV would need replacing after 100,000km (62,137 miles), which is far from the truth. I think we have hit the maximum amount of people that can afford a brand new car that costs €43k, there are so many people that need a car that's €25k or less new. Now we cheap Ev's coming onto the market with Chinese Ev's and other legacy manufacturers like the Renault 5, coming out this year, that will be starting at €25k and the VW ID.2 that's starting at €27k. So we are getting there. Then there is the second hand market, there is barely any ev's on the second hand market that is under €10k, pretty much all ev's that are under 10k are old leafs with not great range. The final point is, that while home charging is a hell of a lot cheaper here than petrol/diesel, public charging is so expensive (ranging from 54c/kWh - 73c kWh) that it's the same or sometimes more expensive that petrol/diesel. For people that can't get home charging they won't switch.
How long does it take to change? My Answer: “I don’t know I just plug in a couple times a week, I don’t think about how long it takes, do you think about how long your phone takes to charge” This, admittedly only works if they have home charging…
For me it’s literally just an upfront cost thing. As someone who started working just a year ago, I cannot justify spending a two year salary for a car (that’s how much the cheapest Tesla costs for me, in my country), especially since I haven’t yet bought a house. I’m willing to learn about charging and to put up with all the drawbacks of batteries since I too hate the internal combustion engine and everything that comes with it, but it just wouldn’t be smart for me to buy an EV.
You mentioned it all but perhaps another reason is how disappointed some people with Cybertruck price ($30K more) with less seat (6 instead of 5) like me. I'm not excited with Tesla current line up anymore because it doesn't meet my family needs.
It's HYBRIDS! People are spending their money on qualified hybrids that also get the $7500 fed credit. You even had it right there in one of the articles you showed.
Just because Tesla dropped prices doesn’t mean the monthly payment has changed much. You’re right that a wall has likely been hit for early adoptions, but further than that, the economy is not in a place for the “masses” of people to purchase new vehicles especially when they don’t understand the nuances of battery charging. A lot of people can’t afford to take a bet on new tech that hasn’t been vetted because if they get stuck with a car that doesn’t work for their situation that they’re probably underwater on then they can’t afford to jump back to a known good in ICE. It’s just too risky today. All that said, inventory is up for all vehicles not just Tesla which supports what I said above about new car affordability for their production capacity. I do think it’s interesting that you think Tesla will default raise prices as interest rates fall. The COGS of Tesla vehicles have been steadily declining which is imperative now with high rates, but will have knock-on effects to demand if they don’t raise prices. I would be shocked if we saw prices jump back to pre-2023 prices, but I can see some price increases might happen so that Tesla can moderate demand for their productions capacity IF interests rates decrease enough to move the needle.
Agreed. The majority of car owners are not car enthusiasts, much less EV enthusiasts. To them, the car is just a tool, like a screwdriver or a light bulb. Talking to them about how much better this other light bulb is or how this other screwdriver will save the planet is a bit ridiculous. They want the cheapest, easiest, most reliable tool that gets the job done so they can spend their time, money, and brainpower on other things.
I am waiting on the efficiency of the Aptera. But my wife is fine with the Ioniq 6 SEL. We drive electric now. Though we do still have a ICE van for bigger stuff or towing.
I bought my Chevy Bolt last year, I was not intrested in tesla, too expensive and Elon's behavior of the last few years disgusts me. My Bolt is perfectly fine for my daily comute and charging at home. Now without longer range, and I mean like over 300 miles in winter range, I won't be using an EV far outside the twincities anduse my fiances old 2017 honda civic for road trips across states, I think the limit in customers is based on that range, and until solid state and lithium sulfur batteries double the range to battery price by 2030 I think EV customer base will be limited.
One of the main reason to buy Tesla, is to help Elon continue his good behavior for the whole humanity. That’s why I bought a Model 3 in 2023 and a Model Y in 2024. Only stupid people listen like sheeps to what msm have to say about Elon.
@@Punklusky How the fuck is buying twitter good for humanity? Or hyperloops, or constantly lying about capabilities and timelines? And finally crypto is a scam and anyone selling it is a conman, ergo elon is a conman.
Yeah I do think the EV market has basically been saturated at this point. I know it sounds odd but people only buy cars every 4-10 years and the Model is only 7 years old now and most didn't get it that year. I do see there is still heavy pessimism against EVs, hell I bought the new Prius and so many people at work told me it was a "stupid idea to buy an EV" when it isn't one, "I don't have to plug in my car" when I can't even do that, and "nobody my generation would buy that thing". Also I myself am more open to buying an EV yet I didn't. The main issues on my side is that I have a 180 mile round trip to work, I have nowhere at home to charge it as I park on the street, no charging at work, very few fast chargers in my area (the only ones I've even seen are single stands at dealerships), and insurance rates for EVs are high enough to question their value. I did consider an EV but in the end there's just more against it than for it. I did also consider the Prius Prime, but it wasn't out yet when I really needed a car and the cost increase won't ever be made up by the fuel economy improvements. Again I drive 180 miles round trip, that's far too much to use it as a pure EV.
After driving an EV, you really miss the instant acceleration and regen braking down hills when you go back to driving an ICE car. I suspect most people who say they don't want an EV have never driven one.
The point of sale did work for me, except I bought a lightning pro and sold my model Y. Elon is right, affordability is key and the lightning is about half as much as the CT which isn't eligible for the point of sale credit. The Ford financing was 1.9% so there is nothing comparable in Tesla land.
Stages in the Hype Curve 1. Initial peak of inflated expectations 2. Trough of disillusionment (where we are now) 3. Upward trend of enlightenment 4. Plateau of productivity Be patient, as we transition into Stage 3.
I don’t think interest rates are a big factor because many car buyers are placing orders for ICE vehicles that cost more than EVs, especially Tesla. The average new car purchase in US is $48K and you get a model Y for much less.
I mean Tesla doesn't offer a budget option, something that is half the price of the Model 3 which you can get a ICE care for brand new easily. So a significant part of the market that won't buy a new Tesla ever until they have an option, otherwise the second hand market will be where its at.
You gotta try a Waymo while you're AZ. Interested to hear your thoughts compared to FSD from Tesla. I think you'll be impressed. I'm 50+ rides in and avoid Uber/Lyft as much as I can. Have a good one
Speaking of free solar charging on vehicles... Fisker is doing that with the Ocean and MKBHD reported that his loaner car was getting about 1 mile of range per day from the solar panels. That's certainly worst case scenario, but I have some hesitation to say the added cost of a solar panel will outweigh the savings.
I am proud to be part of the Q1 highland deliveries I just wish I had FSD v12. Think the model y is suffering from people seeing the model 3 refresh and wanting that for the juniper Y. Truth be told I also wanted the Juniper Y but I wanted an EV more so I got Highland. I have spent a ton of time answering questions from people around me mostly about charging. There are not a ton of EVs here but they are mostly Tesla if you see them. I agree that mass adoption will not take hold until the model 2 comes out.
I would like to see the quarterly numbers for Mercedes and BMW and legacy automakers, to really compare the numbers. Model 2 can't get here soon enough though
@Tailosive EV could you please make a video of how many people actually qualify for the EV tax credit? I heard that most people spend majority of their federal tax credits on social security and medicare anyways. Especially when you have kids. So unless you make more than 150.000$ single anually (disqualified if exceeded) wouldnt that mean only 5% of the population had enough tax credit for the full 7500$? (I recently went over my taxes and only got 4000$ of the full 7500$ with a 100.000$ income) I would have not purchased had i known how little goes into "federal income tax". And I believe the tax credit is overhyped for a lot of families who dont realize that 75% of their taxes isnt federal income taxes.
I almost always find myself agreeing with you. Most of the people I know are rural farm types, and they've seen the negative headlines and fud, and still think EVs are only suitable for short range city stuff etc. Plus like you said they just don't want to change
I haven’t gotten one yet. I still getting one just getting my money together. I can’t wait to get my Model Y
Yep. Price has definitely been a big issue. Hope with the inventory discounts you can swing one soon.
Yes, it's a really great vehicle, my wife primarly drives it now. But just watch out for the first time you open the rear hatch in a garage, that spoiler edge can hit, I had to adjust mine lower.
If you wait too long, you can test drive the Rivian R2 and compare. Maybe make a video for us in the process.
I for one do want a E.V... But at this time i don't have a need for a new car or have the money for one... As long as the car that i got is in good shape i see no need to go out and get a new or used one... And i would think that a lot of people are in a similar situation.
Several things need to happen in order for EV adoption to become much more widespread in the US. Fortunately, all of them are about to happen over the next few years:
-EV’s will get both cheaper and better, making them more competitive with ICE vehicles.
-Public charging will improve, as all the non-Tesla brands adopt NACS next year, and public chargers get built out over the next several years.
-Something most don’t know about, or see coming: Aptera will hit the market next year and begin ramping up production. There is a high likelihood that Aptera will be phenomenally successful - and as solar and battery technology continue to improve, Aptera‘s business model may eventually revolutionize the EV and automotive industry.
I agree with your all-the-above explanation, but I would add the politicization of electric vehicles. The left-right divide limits the size of the community where driving an electric car is socially acceptable.
Not just that, but for Tesla specifically Elon is severely limiting his customer base. The right is politicizing EVs, and Elon is doing everything he can to stop people on the left from buying Teslas. This isn't "I support Republicans" speech, this is racist, anti-LGBTQ, and anti-Ukrainian / pro-Russian propaganda that Elon is now spreading. It's one thing to ask someone to buy a car from someone who is Republican, it's another thing to buy a car from someone continuously attacking groups of people that are friends/family/themselves.
As a conservative I did not consider the amount of blowback from friends I would get buying an EV. I just think they're cool (they are). I can imagine the truck guys...
I agree you see it with hybrids, the same middle of America people who love hybrids now, hated them when they were seen as the vehicles of liberals. Now evs are the boogie men.
I'm conservative and just bought a Tesla but when anyone tries to apply force like our current administration would desire to do it causes more problems then it solves. Just need to be patient for costs to drop further and for more people to get experience with them.
Middle of America is a stereotype. Where I live EVs are everywhere. Everyone I know that has hated EVs loves my Model 3.@@kharithoughts2679
cheaper cheaper cheaper PLEASe
Model 3 has had an effectiv price hike of almost 20% due to the loss of the federal tax credit
There are a lot of factors at play, but I think you underestimate the effect of higher interest rates. It's not just that it potentially makes your monthly payment higher, but getting a loan is harder now as auto loan rejection rates are at a record high as banks worry over the risk of defaults. And there are a lot of add-on effects down the line of the economy that also have an effect on how people and businesses are spending, or rather NOT spending, money. Businesses are not spending money because money is more expensive to borrow. That means jobs are in a precarious situation and people may be less likely to make a big purchase like a car when they're not sure if they'll still have their jobs in a month.
Except the prices have come down so much vs late 2022&early 2023 high ev prices. That it's cheaper today tco even with the interest rates! 😀
interest rates affects all cars, not just EVs 😂😂
Interest rates is not affecting ICE 😬
I paid cash for my Y yesterday. I would've bought a used 3 before financing. 🤔
6:05 Waiting for the Aptera 🙏
EVs are far more simpler than gas. I just plug mine in when I got home and unplugged it in the morning. Got so used to it that I forgot how gas stations work and when I had a rental I got frustrated with a Chevron gas station that was out of order and had to drive to another gas station that was out of my way. Only bad thing about my EV was that it was a Chevy, the battery kicked the bucket, and the dealership dragged out the process of replacing the battery and kept lying. I took it in enough times that I got the dealership to buy it back. Wish I still had it with a functioning battery.
The thing is, most people don't have the home charging experience. Most people will be stuck dealing with public charging for the foreseeable future and that's a major friction point. Especially for people who rent and don't own a home. In that scenario is very much NOT far more simple than gas unfortunately. And that is the scenario for the majority. Charging infrastructure still has a very long way to go in terms of that.
I think it cost me around $1200 to get the Tesla wall charger and have it installed. Well worth it.
Yeah EVs make a lot more sense if you can charge from home. But yes many don't have the option. Some are renting, some are in apartments, or just have street parking
@@VMYeahVN Even worse, we design our cities around car and because of that, people who cannot afford ev does not have alternative options.
@@TailosiveEV ev is outdated 1830 technology compared to newer 1860 technology aka internal combustion lol. anyone pushing ev is trying to put the buggy before the horse total idiots. lol these batteries just dont have the energy density to compare to gasoline also they are more costly to manufacture and repair and own a operate.
Hey Ho! I think Tailosive has the Point correct; there is a finite number of people who are willing to make the switch. This writer is of the category of 'I cannot get rid of the gas car fast enough'.
I drive old cars. I know Toyotas and what it will take to keep them running to 200K mi+. I know who can fix stuff. I don't have the same ecosystem for old Teslas yet, so it seems riskier.
Ha, the *limit* is the budget. If the #s don't work, no new car EV or ICE.
I'm interested in buying an EV but am waiting for my current ice car to die. It doesn't make financial sence for me to replace my ice car since it still works.
I have a 2017 Toyota Camry and that car could run for decades. I only have 57,000 miles on it.
@@ryanfraley7113 I got you beat... I got a 2017 Mitsubishi Outlander Sport with 30,000 on it... I don't know if it will ever die.
Public charging is far too expensive. Public charging profit is about 30% while gas profit is only 3%. That’s because public charging often doesn’t have high margin snack foods and impulse items for sale. We need more chargers at 7-Eleven, Circle-K, and RaceTrack to reduce charging rates.
Seriously looking at a used 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E California Route 1 for $26,500
great deal!
For me it's simple. Awesome new batteries and improved platform just ahead so I don't want an obsolete model. This doesn't exist in ice car world, almost no change yr to yr..
Awesome new batteries and improved platforms will continue for the next 25+ years. Therefore, you’ll never buy an EV. Use laptops or cell phones as an example of continuous improvement over 25 years. That didn’t stop anyone from buying and upgrading later.
@@johnpoldo8817 exactly. He will be waiting forever
Personally, I would *not* get a full EV, only a hybrid. See, I live in an apartment with no garage or even outdoor outlets. So, no home charging. In addition, most of the public chargers in my area are only level 2 and are restricted to employees/ customers of the establishment. My employer doesn’t have any EV charging. So, in my case our vehicle has to be either ICE or a hybrid that can fully charge the battery exclusively from the gasoline engine and regenerative breaking. I have no way to charge it otherwise. As long as there are pockets in this country like where I live, there will be places where EV adoption doesn’t make sense. 🤷
I think people who aren’t shopping for an EV are not even aware how drastically Tesla reduced their prices, and have written off pricey EV ownership. A Model Y on par with mainstream crossovers was a surprise to me. If Tesla keeps prices this low regardless of interest rates, word will get out.
The American consumer is tapping out.
I think you hit the nail when you mentioned there's just not enough savings going ev. In places where EV adoption is higher is places where owning an ice vehicle is way more expensive due to high gas prices, taxes, fees etc.
I agree wholeheartedly with focusing less on the "it's cheaper 5 years down the road". In this economy, that is literally useless. The upfront cost is the only thing that matters to anyone who's not rich. That plus yeah charging infrastructure still has a ways to go. All the people who need the 5-30k EVs are also the same people who need not just public charging to expand, but very specifically apartment garage charging. And that will take YEARS to make any major headway unfortunately.
Interest rates.
Eventually exponential growth will not be so exponential!
I think you hit the nail on the head with your analysis. I would also add that there's only a small percentage of people who actually buy new vehicles. And when you look deeper into who many of these people are, they're very different than your typical EV owner. For example, women are far more likely to buy a new vehicle. Yet women only make up 25% of EV drivers. Another example is that people over the age of 55 are far more likely to buy a new vehicle. And how many of them care about 0-60 times, big infotainment screens, etc.? I can't imagine my 70 year old mother wanting to switch over to an EV anytime soon. An Escape or RAV4 is what she wants.
Also a realization that ICE vehicles will be around longer than what they were saying a couple years ago.
another thing that is killing EV adoption is the energy companies that is constantly jacking up rates like PGE. driving my model Y is the same as driving a prius now in terms of dollar spent to miles. but i still have to pay a lot more for insurance for the tesla.
I think people hear all these stories from China of 15-18k EVs and want cheaper prices, as evidenced by how demand rises when some EVs are discounted. Other issue is that unfortunately, charging outside home in some areas can be very expensive, the fast charging I mean. Gas car industry is not sleeping too and with hybrids and more efficiency even if you cannot do miracles, now they eat less and less gas so with expensive fast charging it may be hard to justify both slower charging speed compared to gas and also same or even higher prices per mile/km... But I think mainly EVs should move in lower priced segments too, this is where a lot of 2nd cars for a family are that do not do much long travel and they could be very good at this stage as city cars if you can charge at home, if they are priced accordingly/we get to price parity with ICE
A factor you missed is the Osbourne effect on the Model Y with people waiting for Juniper.
2 more reasons... 1) the FUD has actually started to work... 2) Most people just don't have money... let alone spending on something they are not 100% on board with
I spend less than $90 a month at Super Chargers only as I live in an apartment. My gas car was easily $300+ a month
I travel in my model 3 from LA to El Paso TX, the most I spent charging is 17 minutes. it is usually 5/9 minutes.
“How do long does it take to charge?”
Can you connect it to a regular outlet near your house/garage? If so, you’ll essentially never have to find out.
Let me know if that answer wins them over 🤣
Interested in a Model Y but my family only has 1 car now. I work from home, wife stays at home with our 4 kids young kids and we drive a 2022 AWD VW Atlas that cost $38,000 new and an Urban Arrow Cargo Bike. Don't need a second car at the moment.
Earlier in my family I would have lept at a model Y, at the current price they are but it's too small now, needs to be cheaper to be a second car, or Tesla needs to make a Van or Armored Personnel Carrier variant of the cybertruck.
I think another think that is not helping is that people hear about ev companies going out of business and think that all ev companies will go under and think their car will suddenly stop working
It's definitely the fud. Some people I talk to I've managed to clear up the mess for them and get them interested, others are just too closed minded.
I agree with your analysis. One anecdote: I bought a 2013 Nissan Leaf in 2015 (2 years old) for $10,000. My wife said, "Why did you buy that thing?" Now, it is basically her car - because she NEVER has to go to a gas station nor a public charging station. She just plugs it into a standard 120v 15 amp circuit in the garage. We just use it around the Seattle metro area. Less hassle for her.
For me, it is less cost and less maintenance. Since 2015, all that I have done is: charge it at home, fill windshield washer fluid, add air to the tires, and replace windshield wiper blades. No visits to a dealer nor any other automotive service provider. No oil changes nor filter changes.
I have pre-ordered an Aptera - which would replace the Leaf. I may be replacing our Subaru Forester this summer with a Tesla Model Y or X.
I live in Guaymas Sonora in winter and Seattle, Washington in summer. Gas prices are high in Guaymas - 24.89 Pesos per liter (about $US5.69 per gallon and residential electricity is cheap 1.11 Pesos per KwH (about $US0.055). The Subaru can go 30 miles on $5.69 of gas. If the Leaf was here, it could go 300 miles on the same money.
In Seattle, the current gas price at Costco is $4.43 and electricity is about $0.12 per KwH. Same 30 miles with the Subaru, but the same money would propel the Leaf further $4.43 / 0.12 = KwH * 3 miles/KwH = 110 miles on the same money in Seattle.
High prices, high interest rates and no REAL charging infrastructure at home/work/apt/ roads other than Tesla Network are the culprits
What do you mean EVs age well? The depreciation for EVs in my opinion is insane like that’s a reason I would not buy a current EV and only consider leasing one.
It's not as bad as gas vehicle depreciation, but yes EVs depreciate just like any other car
@@TailosiveEV No offense but what vehicles are you looking at. Yes some gas cars depreciate like crazy like BMWs or Mercedes and if you believe Tesla’s are luxury vehicles I can see your point. But when a model Y used to be close to 70 but now a new one cost 54 for a similar spec making your two year old used car maybe worth 45-50 if that is not normal. No mass market car loses that much value and most average households can’t afford that. I used the performance because the lose value is extreme but it to an extent applies to regular vehicles as well.
Look at depreciation charts for Tesla vs other brands. My personal vehicles have been Toyota/ Honda so that’s my point of comparison and in my opinion I would only consider leasing cause you loose too much depreciation in the short term and in the long term I don’t know about battery life/ costs. Tesla could theoretically just decided to turn off supercharging access if they decided the batteries have degraded past a certain point which I personally do not feel comfortable with. They currently do not have the track record of making long lasting vehicles that Japanese brands have and well the other American manufacturers do not instill much confidence in them either.
All that being said if you plan to use your vehicle for 7-10 years and can survive with standard range using LFP I understand and would be comfortable recommending to the right people. In my opinion range anxiety (for standard range)/ my lead foot which will cause me to have to charge every 2-3 hours on a road trip are deal breakers for me.
I think one of the biggest issues EVs have is working for people that rent their homes. I think there are many millions of people that would love to own an EV, and might even have the funds to purchase one, but if they don’t have access to a convenient charging option because they rent their home, EVs are off the table.
Lots of people delayed buying a model T because they formed a bond with their cute horse. And they thought hay was easier to find than gasoline.
When we bought our Kia ICE car 11 years ago, we didn't think much about it except that we wanted an SUV that could accommodate cargo and child seats for family trips. We also wanted it to be reasonably stylish and affordable. So we walked into a dealership, haggled for hours, and bought a new car. For the past four years I have been a Tesla fan and investor, learning more about the company, its products, and its businesses. I plan to buy a refreshed Model Y in the second half of next year. I expect it will have greater range, reliability, and autonomous driving capabilities than their vehicles do today. As an engineer, I can appreciate the many advantages Tesla offers its customers. However, most of my friends and family don't think about cars much beyond their appearance and reputation. Tesla, electric cars, and Elon have a reputation problem. Many people are saying terrible things about them. This makes most people unfamiliar with Tesla uncertain about their products. Uncertainty is not something most people want when buying a car. Better the devil that you know than the devil that you don't, as the saying goes. ICE cars are the devils that most of us know. Hybrids offer some environmental and societal benefits while maintaining their devilish familiarity. If I were not an engineer and an informed Tesla fan, I might have considered a hybrid as well. Most well meaning folks are probably planning to buy a hybrid before buying a fully electric vehicle, if they are planning at all. Hybrids don't inspire envy, rage, vandalism, coal rolling, micro-aggressions, and terrorist acts. Hybrids are not falsely slandered left and right as both too woke/sustainable and too unsustainably resource intensive. People want their cars to be socially and emotionally safe as well as physically safe. It will take more family and friends with Teslas, more butts in seats experiences, better information, more heartfelt conversations, and better cheaper models before most American car buyers have the clarity and confidence to spend tens of thousands of dollars on an electric car, especially one as controversial as a Tesla.
Drew, you have made an excellent point. We may have reached the point of ICE haters or EV enthusiasts. I reached that point 7 years ago frustrated with periodic maintenance costs on MB, BMW, Porsche, etc. Charging at apartments & HOA’s remains a big problem.
Yeah it all the things you spoke of like interest rates, price of Evs, potential gas savings, charging times, can you home charge, early adopters already have their Ev(Plateau) etc...
I remember when i got my model 3 in 2019 that Supercharger rates were half the cost of today's rates, i obviously charge mostly at home but for those depending on Superchargers to charge up it's not much savings if any.
Evs need to come down in price, get better fast charging times without major degradation of the battery, also battery and parts replacement prices are something that might not have been mentioned but is a elephant in the room. If something was to happen out of warranty to your battery or parts of the car then all those gas savings go out the door. This is a major issue that needs to be addressed to make the decision to switch a lot more easier.
So to reiterate they need to bring prices down but still build a compelling and well built vehicle that will last, decrease public charging times (CATL), lower supercharger rates, lower battery and parts replacement cost. Plus this isn't a Tesla problem but in the U.S it seems like certain parts of the country have ridiculously high electricity rates which doesn't help. Going to switch my electricity TOU plan and take advantage of the Ultra low off peak rates at .03 KWH better than the .09 I'm paying right now.
this is why I think advertising now makes sense. Not so much in selling more. just more in educating people.
Show them the numbers, explain how charging works, show them the software.
There's still a lot of people out there that are on the fence I think. there is still a lot of people with range anxiety.
There's a lot of educating without much cost savings for many. They won't listen if there's no reason to switch
Yeah you're right.
The demand for these "contemporary" big battery bank EVs are hitting a plateau, EV demand is simply a manner of finite personal logistics, stretched upon the entire population. Many people can't fathom the maintenance and power demands of a voltage hungry, 4500+ pound "Sedan", that's about the same mass as a full cab ICE Truck, and EV trucks are even heavier than those.
The concept of having an electric car being a 1:1 conversion of the modern "Every Role Car" has always baffled many people, including myself
Funny you mentioned Aptera, they're basically the next breakthrough in EV market. An EV you don't ever physically *Need* to plug in is the most appealing thing to the vast majority of the country that... can't find a place to plug their car into. Unlike a lot of other EV tech startups, Aptera built their entire production line to be as cost efficient as possible, so they're basically set financially for the forseeable future. (unlike Rivian, which has to restructure itself because the founder $$$ tap is closing up.)
I love it. I want an Aptera unconditionally, but the pricing is still really freaking up there for the majority of america's citizens, even with financing.
It’s definitely a combination of what you mentioned here that explains the decline in EV sales. The biggest one being that Tesla and other EV makers are running out of new EV enthusiasts to sell cars to. People in the EV space sometimes forget that we’re still in the early adopters phase for the EV market, even though Tesla has been mass producing cars for over a decade now. Getting people to adopt EVs is simply not going to be as fast as say the smartphone market due to the sheer cost of owning a car.
My family got teslas one at a time until we all had them. Finally we're trying a Ford Mustang mach e too since we like EVs not necessarily just teslas. I love my model y with all my heart though, got it used.
You are right that general public acceptance might take some time especially when people are so used to filling up gas cars in no time and dont want to wait 20 mins even for an 80% charge. Not to mention people are afraid of the costs to replace batteries and the fact rhat lot of people live in apartments where charging is not available. That said, the current marco environment do play a part since car payments are becoming much more expensive and wages are not keeping up with the general cost of living. People also worry about possible recession and layoffs and are playing it safe before maing a big purchase. Time will tell but the futre is still EV imo.
It will just take some time for most of us. I needed a new vehicle as my 98 old's was showing it's age and I would have liked to have gotten an EV, but was not suitable for me. I own my house, but it has curbside parking and no way to home charge. The only public charging in my city is a 6.3 kw charger that I didn't bother to find out what the rates were for costs. Even when I go to the larger cities, the chargers location would add a half hour driving time and then add charging time on top of that. If I bought a Tesla the closest service center is 4 hours each way if I needed to utilize that and a high tow bill if it needed hauled.
In Feb of this year I purchased a vehicle with cash (interest rates don't mean anything to me) and in 10 years when I am ready for a new vehicle things should be much improved on the EV front. I hope to get one then. I do have an electric bike that I can use for my around town needs in decent weather in the meantime.
My biggest pet peeve is the vehicle registration TAX! In my opinion, vehicle registrations should be done once and only reregistered if sold/new purchase. Anything after that is just a TAX. The prices in some states where it’s $500-$1k+ is a huge problem and needs to be addressed asap. Owning a vehicle in general is getting to be unsustainable. Robotaxis to the rescue!!!
Yup. FUD in news over years is def a part. We were unsure if we wanted to buy a Tesla since it makes it look like we “spent $70k on one” even if prices were down in 40s
How long does it take to charge my EV? No idea. I plug it in when I get home and it is programmed to finish charging at the time I leave for work. So however much time you spend driving to a gas station and waiting in line and pumping gas and driving back is how much more time you spend "charging" your car than I do.
PG&E Rate hikes have me looking at a Ford Maverick Hybrid now. I cannot substantiate a 16k investment in solar since the break even is 5 years from now.
I thinkyour spot on. The early adopter limit has been reached. Now the cars have to get better, by which I mean more practical not more luxurious or more faster. For example we have a caravan. I've looked and even in UK there's not a good caravan towing ev that will tow a reasonable distance on a charge.
Got a 2022 red Model 3 long range from hertz auto sales with 85.000 miles on it for 22.000$
Utility company rebate worth 4000$ and a coming IRA tax credit of 4000$.
Getting a Tesla with the many improvements including the Ryzen CPU made a lot of sense to me.
They had some 26.000$ teslas too with 60.000 miles or less, but they didnt qualify for the tax credit.
.
It not worth it now when you have all car doing over 500 miles then maybe more will switch but millions of people will not change
Hi Drew, I think it’s a combination of all items you mention. In addition, in 10/2023 setup free demo drives for the Model 3 and Model Y. First, the experience was so much better than any experience I ever had. Everything can be done through the Telsa app to setup the drives at any location, etc. Second, there is no sales pressure to buy. Telsa let me drive the cars by myself and return. Then we briefly discussed within the lounge area. The drive to technology and overall feel is far more advanced as compared to any ICE or other EV’s. I did not buy a Telsa because I am waiting on my Aptera as #617.
Yes, the 3rd generation model will help with EV adoption, but right now, supply is outstripping demand. Also, when they refresh the Model Y, that will create greater demand.
Adoption of disruptive technologies is never a perfect ramp up curve; there will be ups and downs for the seeable future. What to look for is the continued averaging upward trend.
Personally, I feel the current price point for EV are still too expensive for most families. Especially for families to try something new. The EV charging woes (lack of charging infrastructure and the higher cost of charging at those chargers) for renters (non-home owners) is a real deal breaker.
Don't forget that Hertz dumped thousands of cheap EVs on the market. There tons of new model 3 drivers who didn't buy from Tesla.
Another thing is that a lot of people who might be up for EV ownership just aren't ready to buy a new car. I bought my Kia Soul in May 2019, I have less than 30,000 miles on it and just don't see the point in a new daily driver until I'm over 100,000 miles.
That said, I think seeing how things are going with existing EVs will be important. The first generation of EVs have had their share of problems because its a new technology. Tesla had its quality issues and Ford, and other legacy manufacturers are struggling with battery technology. As time goes on, EVs become trouble free and people see happy EV owners, adoption will increase.
perfect example - of my immediate family -- siblings on mine and my wives side and grandparents
we have 36 cars in the family
1 EV
that's 2.7%.......
they all thought I was crazy for getting a tesla etc.
I think you hit the nail on the head. I think people are way to much on the "we just need to educate them" band wagon and need to understand there are tradeoffs still between ICE and EVs and many people are not going to pick an EV. Charging infrastructure is still very immature and creates barriers in many locations.
You register an EV and it might cost $200 or $300 more than a ICE car, but honestly you're still saving a hell of a lot of money vs. gas. Hoping Aptera is coming soon. I really like the logic of this vehicle. Solar charging for the most part or just plugging into a 120 outlet. No need for a powerwall or supercharger at home. Faster charging on the road as well. Very good video on thoughts of why EV sales are dropping off.
That's the thing as well... If EVs age better and are more reliable years down the road, the USED market will be full of cheaper EVs and the demand for a new EV will drop off naturally.
All the reasons you said. Plus the Osborn effect. Lots of people waiting for refreshed Model Y and other new EVs with better battery tech.
not advertising perse but education. tesla and every company that makes an ev should put out fact based snippets (30 sec - 1 min "commercials")
educating the public on evs. including debunking a lot of these myths the general public has like batteries catching fire and such
Demand for EVs over $45k is saturated and dropping. Demand for EVs under $35k is huge and pent-up due lack of supply, especially in the US.
I think the FUD started with Toyota has been huge. They wanted hybrids and news article after news article is pro hybrid and con EV. I think this has been very effective because the same people who love hybrids now, hated them before evs came to the market.
I’d love to switch. But I am a single 28 year old man renting an apartment (purchasing a house in this market is comical) so I have no where to charge except the supercharger down the road (which I’m not doing because of long-term affects on battery health) and everyday goods and services are generally more expensive (makes it harder to save so I can pay cash for a vehicle). Therefore, my paid off 2013 Chevy Cruze with 165,000 miles will do for now. Even with no auto or student loans, putting my money into a new vehicle now would not be a smart financial decision. Maxing out my Roth contributions and investing is more important than ever nowadays. But the temptation to get a new whip is definitely there.
Believe me. The day I can ditch a combustion engine and a legacy auto maker will be one of the best days of my life.
Whole heartedly agree. Such common sense... It's crazy to me that more people don't acknowledge this.
Only point of disaggrement: I think advertising cd play an outsized role in convincing more "normies" that EVs are superior to gas cars. EVs are new and unknown: advertising does help to close some of that information gap. But I agree that there are still many many people for whom advertising would have no effect. And also agree that interacting with friends and family wi have the biggest impact.
1 year in and i will admit there was a learning curve....yes i can charge at home and it has made it very easy to change my ways....apartment dwellers may have a harder transition untill more infrastructure is built...it wont be long....all i can say is that ICE can now only ever be entertainment or purpose use only....daily commutes, and for people with homes to charge at evs are hard to beat
You make very good points. I've always said the ev industry needs to do a lot more to educate ppl about evs and how they work. I follow this stuff a lot and I'm planning on getting a R2 but even I have questions
On super charging...... prices here in UK are rediculous can actually cost more on a road trip than gas ..... 😮
Got to fund the BBC and Disney +. Who else is going to attack Trump and evil knives....silverware is racist.😊
There is three main reasons for this, the spread of misinformation, the price of a new vehicle is too expensive and price of public charging. Here in Ireland the AA did a survey on 1,000 people and a massive 50% of those people believe that a battery in an EV would need replacing after 100,000km (62,137 miles), which is far from the truth. I think we have hit the maximum amount of people that can afford a brand new car that costs €43k, there are so many people that need a car that's €25k or less new. Now we cheap Ev's coming onto the market with Chinese Ev's and other legacy manufacturers like the Renault 5, coming out this year, that will be starting at €25k and the VW ID.2 that's starting at €27k. So we are getting there. Then there is the second hand market, there is barely any ev's on the second hand market that is under €10k, pretty much all ev's that are under 10k are old leafs with not great range. The final point is, that while home charging is a hell of a lot cheaper here than petrol/diesel, public charging is so expensive (ranging from 54c/kWh - 73c kWh) that it's the same or sometimes more expensive that petrol/diesel. For people that can't get home charging they won't switch.
How long does it take to change?
My Answer: “I don’t know I just plug in a couple times a week, I don’t think about how long it takes, do you think about how long your phone takes to charge” This, admittedly only works if they have home charging…
For me it’s literally just an upfront cost thing. As someone who started working just a year ago, I cannot justify spending a two year salary for a car (that’s how much the cheapest Tesla costs for me, in my country), especially since I haven’t yet bought a house. I’m willing to learn about charging and to put up with all the drawbacks of batteries since I too hate the internal combustion engine and everything that comes with it, but it just wouldn’t be smart for me to buy an EV.
No a Tesla is a 3 year to 5 year Salery if your not a boomer. You can get a house for 100k.
You mentioned it all but perhaps another reason is how disappointed some people with Cybertruck price ($30K more) with less seat (6 instead of 5) like me. I'm not excited with Tesla current line up anymore because it doesn't meet my family needs.
It's HYBRIDS!
People are spending their money on qualified hybrids that also get the $7500 fed credit. You even had it right there in one of the articles you showed.
Just because Tesla dropped prices doesn’t mean the monthly payment has changed much. You’re right that a wall has likely been hit for early adoptions, but further than that, the economy is not in a place for the “masses” of people to purchase new vehicles especially when they don’t understand the nuances of battery charging. A lot of people can’t afford to take a bet on new tech that hasn’t been vetted because if they get stuck with a car that doesn’t work for their situation that they’re probably underwater on then they can’t afford to jump back to a known good in ICE. It’s just too risky today.
All that said, inventory is up for all vehicles not just Tesla which supports what I said above about new car affordability for their production capacity.
I do think it’s interesting that you think Tesla will default raise prices as interest rates fall. The COGS of Tesla vehicles have been steadily declining which is imperative now with high rates, but will have knock-on effects to demand if they don’t raise prices. I would be shocked if we saw prices jump back to pre-2023 prices, but I can see some price increases might happen so that Tesla can moderate demand for their productions capacity IF interests rates decrease enough to move the needle.
Model y price has already gone up twice this year
Agreed. The majority of car owners are not car enthusiasts, much less EV enthusiasts. To them, the car is just a tool, like a screwdriver or a light bulb. Talking to them about how much better this other light bulb is or how this other screwdriver will save the planet is a bit ridiculous. They want the cheapest, easiest, most reliable tool that gets the job done so they can spend their time, money, and brainpower on other things.
And they go to hell.
I wonder how many people are just waiting for the MY refresh.
I am waiting on the efficiency of the Aptera. But my wife is fine with the Ioniq 6 SEL. We drive electric now. Though we do still have a ICE van for bigger stuff or towing.
I bought my Chevy Bolt last year, I was not intrested in tesla, too expensive and Elon's behavior of the last few years disgusts me. My Bolt is perfectly fine for my daily comute and charging at home. Now without longer range, and I mean like over 300 miles in winter range, I won't be using an EV far outside the twincities anduse my fiances old 2017 honda civic for road trips across states, I think the limit in customers is based on that range, and until solid state and lithium sulfur batteries double the range to battery price by 2030 I think EV customer base will be limited.
One of the main reason to buy Tesla, is to help Elon continue his good behavior for the whole humanity. That’s why I bought a Model 3 in 2023 and a Model Y in 2024.
Only stupid people listen like sheeps to what msm have to say about Elon.
@@Punklusky How the fuck is buying twitter good for humanity? Or hyperloops, or constantly lying about capabilities and timelines? And finally crypto is a scam and anyone selling it is a conman, ergo elon is a conman.
Yeah I do think the EV market has basically been saturated at this point. I know it sounds odd but people only buy cars every 4-10 years and the Model is only 7 years old now and most didn't get it that year. I do see there is still heavy pessimism against EVs, hell I bought the new Prius and so many people at work told me it was a "stupid idea to buy an EV" when it isn't one, "I don't have to plug in my car" when I can't even do that, and "nobody my generation would buy that thing".
Also I myself am more open to buying an EV yet I didn't. The main issues on my side is that I have a 180 mile round trip to work, I have nowhere at home to charge it as I park on the street, no charging at work, very few fast chargers in my area (the only ones I've even seen are single stands at dealerships), and insurance rates for EVs are high enough to question their value.
I did consider an EV but in the end there's just more against it than for it. I did also consider the Prius Prime, but it wasn't out yet when I really needed a car and the cost increase won't ever be made up by the fuel economy improvements. Again I drive 180 miles round trip, that's far too much to use it as a pure EV.
honestly, quite surprised to see a balanced view
After driving an EV, you really miss the instant acceleration and regen braking down hills when you go back to driving an ICE car. I suspect most people who say they don't want an EV have never driven one.
Another reason and maybe the largest one is the economic situation majority of people are going thru around the world ( interest rates )
The point of sale did work for me, except I bought a lightning pro and sold my model Y. Elon is right, affordability is key and the lightning is about half as much as the CT which isn't eligible for the point of sale credit. The Ford financing was 1.9% so there is nothing comparable in Tesla land.
Stages in the Hype Curve
1. Initial peak of inflated expectations
2. Trough of disillusionment (where we are now)
3. Upward trend of enlightenment
4. Plateau of productivity
Be patient, as we transition into Stage 3.
I don’t think interest rates are a big factor because many car buyers are placing orders for ICE vehicles that cost more than EVs, especially Tesla. The average new car purchase in US is $48K and you get a model Y for much less.
and there not selling. Only boomers. What happens when they die. Gen Z can't afford a car that costs over 14k.
@@TempoLOOKING The simple answer to gen Z $14K limit is to buy a pre-owned vehicle. When my daughter was 16, 20 yrs ago, she had saved $25K for a car.
ONE can only sell SO many $40k EVs!
How does waiting for ev to charge go by faster? The math ain’t mathing.
I mean Tesla doesn't offer a budget option, something that is half the price of the Model 3 which you can get a ICE care for brand new easily. So a significant part of the market that won't buy a new Tesla ever until they have an option, otherwise the second hand market will be where its at.
You gotta try a Waymo while you're AZ. Interested to hear your thoughts compared to FSD from Tesla. I think you'll be impressed. I'm 50+ rides in and avoid Uber/Lyft as much as I can. Have a good one
I haven't purchased one yet because I'm waiting to have my solar roof installed first. There must be other folks in that boat also.
SOLAR FRAKEN ROADWAYS 😂
Speaking of free solar charging on vehicles... Fisker is doing that with the Ocean and MKBHD reported that his loaner car was getting about 1 mile of range per day from the solar panels. That's certainly worst case scenario, but I have some hesitation to say the added cost of a solar panel will outweigh the savings.
Solar on a car unless it is a very efficient car like the Aptera is next to useless. The numbers tell us this but people keep dreaming.
When you only go 3 miles per kWh and have only 300 watts of solar yeah it’s not a great idea. Aptera gets 10 miles per kWh with 700 watts of solar
Never owned an EV. Never even sat in one. Used to really want a Tesla but I am now holding out for an Aptera.
I am proud to be part of the Q1 highland deliveries I just wish I had FSD v12. Think the model y is suffering from people seeing the model 3 refresh and wanting that for the juniper Y. Truth be told I also wanted the Juniper Y but I wanted an EV more so I got Highland. I have spent a ton of time answering questions from people around me mostly about charging. There are not a ton of EVs here but they are mostly Tesla if you see them. I agree that mass adoption will not take hold until the model 2 comes out.
I would like to see the quarterly numbers for Mercedes and BMW and legacy automakers, to really compare the numbers. Model 2 can't get here soon enough though
@Tailosive EV could you please make a video of how many people actually qualify for the EV tax credit?
I heard that most people spend majority of their federal tax credits on social security and medicare anyways. Especially when you have kids.
So unless you make more than 150.000$ single anually (disqualified if exceeded) wouldnt that mean only 5% of the population had enough tax credit for the full 7500$?
(I recently went over my taxes and only got 4000$ of the full 7500$ with a 100.000$ income)
I would have not purchased had i known how little goes into "federal income tax". And I believe the tax credit is overhyped for a lot of families who dont realize that 75% of their taxes isnt federal income taxes.