Will Taiwan Cause a World War?
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- čas přidán 30. 01. 2022
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Bibliography:
Asian Waters by Humphrey Hawksely
Asia's Cauldron by Robert Kaplan
Destined for War by Graham Allison
Disunited Nations by Peter Zeihan
World Order by Henry Kissinger
China's Asian Dream by Tom Miller
China, a History by John Keay
The Best of Times and the Worst of Times by Michael Burleigh
The 3D Gospel by
The Great Wave by David Hackett Fischer
War in Human Civilization by Azar Ghat
The Next 100 Years by George Friedman
The BBC Great War, 1964
Battle Cry of Freedom by James McPherson
Tragedy and Hope by Carroll Quigley
Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin
I really love your videos But as a marketing person a recommendation: don't release them in batches, but divide the release date out in time, it helps the algorithm quite a bit.
Several quick releases increase interaction and "staying on the channel" so the algorithm gets boosted, your method would not push the algorithm in any way
@@DJ1573 I'd say the contrary is true. When CZcamsrs suddenly disappear, like Scarce or CallMeCarson, you see them disappear, but never alerted immediately when they return as the algorithm simply thinks they are gone for good, and would better off promoting "new releases" and get attached to them the longer the gone CZcamsrs are away. There's a reason why quantity over quality is so much boosted by the algorithm.
@@DJ1573 I don’t think this is true at all
@xFangs
I do not work on CZcams, but I know how the algorithm works, as my work in marketing is connected to it. The decision is ultimately in his hands, I just shared what I know.
@@sharkronical Do you see any difference in the content Whatifaltist creates and those channels you named? But yeah sure the YT algorithm does not put viewers into interest groups to determine what is relevant in their content bubble ;)
I love how you’re mic can go from sounding good in one video, to being locked in a safe the next
Tbf I like the locked in a safe voice :)
Maybe he's just emulating what he will do should this conflict come to pass and escalate 🤷♂
He must be recording each video in a different place as to stay safe.
Perhaps he's testing the bunker WiFi lol
I think the Ukrainian situation might make things more complicated. Since if Russia went to war with Ukraine and its allies (Namely U.S. and key NATO member countries), U.S. 's foreign policy might take a drastic turn and shift its focus on Europe and China might see it as a good window to take action on Taiwan while under-estimating U.S 's Two-front war capacity and accidentally trigger WWIII.
Can't wait to die in a nuclear war
@@badduka198 Least you are not alone
@@badduka198 maybe it's hopeful thinking, but I think the world powers would be smart enough to not use nukes during ww3. I mean we made it this far without having to use them. If any nukes get dropped, it'll be by a smaller country that doesn't realize the consequences as much/is less stable
"Underestimating U.S.-s Two Front war capacity" I think you may be overestimating actually. The us will need help from its allies (Europe in the west and India in the east) if it has any hopes in winning a two front war with Russia/China. The us has no hope in taking on both nations on their own
Yeah if the US fully responds against Russia in Ukraine than I highly doubt Russia would ever switch to an American ally in a future Chinese conflict.
Also Japan is a much weaker enemy than an industrialized China, the US will definitely need to fully militarize its allies in Asia if it wants to win a two front war
I took a course on Modern China and according to my professor, there was a Chinese politician who said that it would be easier for the PRC to buy Taiwan than to conquer it. There is also some discrepancies in the One China Policy, as to travel to Taiwan from the mainland, one flies through the international terminal of Chinese airports rather than a domestic flight.
The problem is that China needs to use its money wisely to direct the politics of Taiwan to its favor. In the first decade of 21 century it somehow worked. But now it seems with more money they pour, the more Taiwanese people are against China.
And yes it’s hilarious that we Taiwanese people are treated basically the same as any other foreigners in mainland. Other than we take the international flights, we are also barred from the hotels reserved for the Chinese. It shows that China and Taiwan are de facto two different countries, they just don’t want to admit it.
That politician is ignorant because Taiwan won't be for sale. This is the type of thinking people in China have.
china will take the island eventually, not sure by which means but it will happen
@@sinoroman I wouldn't be so sure.
@@meejinhuang did you not understand the point of the comment?
I think it's incorrect to paint Taiwan as only having symbolic importance, with all its critical industry, especially semiconductors
@@Wolf78033 TSMC's market share of semiconductors is about 50% with a share of 90% of the most advanced ones. With semiconductors being vital to many industries. Semiconductor capacity is not something that countries can just will into existence either as it takes years of investment to get fabs going (china is currently trying but with little results at the moment). The Chinese cannot ignore this aspect of Taiwan.
I think chip makers are diversifying their bases of operations. Intel is making a fab in Ohio. Also note that Taiwan does not hold a monopoly on chip making equipment manufacturing.
Invading Taiwan for tsmc is like invading silicon Valley for Facebook.
@@charlesmadre5568 True, but if those critical personnel are accidentally killed in the invasion (say if the attack was quicker than projected) the implicit-knowledge loss would be tremendous. Potentially it would set back electronics globally for 3 to 5 years.
Of course, China doesn't want this either and so would probably not bomb the area around the plant. But accidents happen, the workers don't live at the plant by & large.
@@benharris7358 TSMC is also building a fab stateside, but neither it nor the Intel fab are current afaik. Both are two generations behind.
11:46 I like how he included the Afghan resistance as a US ally in this map. Most would forget about them.
Including our President.
Afghan has been taken by the taliban, and the ANA was not anywhere near a solid military force while we were still there. that nation would be a no mans land in terms of being an ally or enemy.
@@avroarchitect1793 Dude, the Taliban are already entering into diplomatic talks with China for economic deals. They want China to support them directly and become their ally. The rebels would be our natural ally if the country were included in the map. I'm merely pointing out that most would forget that the rebels either exist or would fight against them for their own sakes, meaning their taking bullets to fight our enemies.
I think that makes them deserving of recognition.
@@nateghast6456 the taliban rule to a degree that such rebellion is functionally a non factor in what we are considering here
@@avroarchitect1793 I'm not trying to argue the significance of these forces. I am commenting that it is funny that they were included.
It seems you misinterpreted my original comment noting the quaintness of their inclusion as a declaration of its importance.
I don't think the importance of the spratly islands should be this dismissed, they're a very useful tool in supremacy in the South China Sea and by extension the extremely important malacca strait
Other than the shit ton of oil under the South China Sea - ergo why everyone wants it. The oil must flow.
What China really does with these islands is putting a giant target on then
@@RigbyWilde oil
Taiwan (Republic of China) also put the claims on the South China sea as well.
not to mention the importance of Taiwan in the production of semiconductors
There is a significant difference between the present day and the First World War. In those days, the birth rate in industrialized countries was still large, today it's not. Aging populations don't want to go to war.
In Ukraine and Russia it's otherwise: people 18-30 don't want to fight AT ALL (complete indifference and lack of patriotism), older people in Russia are aggressively militaristic and chauvinistic and older people in Ukraine are more than willing to protect the country
True but who cares. American got an aging population with birth rate no better than Chinese, still American went to two wars at the same time.
You somehow have the false assumptions that any nation on this planet is ruled by “democracy”. Nobody is ruled by democracy, almost all are under some shape or form of republic where a few rich elites decide if the common people need to die for them.
And that’s the sad part, also I’m pretty sure even in WW1 a lot of people in Germany France UK Russia doesn’t wanted to go to war. National pride is such a BS, most intelligent people would see through that BS pretty easily. They went to war because they can’t resist and now it doesn’t change. Also a every simple way to force people to go to war, keep a portion of population poor and pay those poor motherfuckers to die for you. US and China are both doing exactly that.
@@royhuang9715 nobody in the US joins the military for money
@@Guts3570 yeah right keep telling yourself that BS. I knew a lot of guys who couldn’t afford college and went into the military FOR MONEY.
@@Guts3570 Perhaps the healthcare then.
Taiwan is not ruled by the KMT anymore, it is ruled by a wholly different party and the KMT is in the opposition
Willing to give a pass on this because it is likely that from the Chinese perspective, they would consider the descendents of the KMT as still being the KMT.
@@deadpan_delivry7476 That is complete false. If anything, KMT is closer to the CCP and its descendent DPP is a puppet of the globalist liberals, the same people running American leftism
Just one of many uninformed, utterly simplistic statements in this "analysis" of the potential for a war over Taiwan. The DPP has reduced the military budget to less than 2% of GDP and has ended mandatory military service. Moreover, the military has traditionally been a bastion of support for the KMT, thus providing the DPP further political motivation to curb its influence. The US also refuses to sell the most advanced military equipment to Taiwan, such as the F-35 (Taiwan dodged a bullet with that piece of junk imo), due to the military's perceived sympathy towards the mainland and high level defections. If Taiwan is not prepared to fight its own wars, why the hell should the US? This channel is absolute trash and I hope it never comes up in my recs again.
@@deadpan_delivry7476 The current ruling political party is not KMT but it's still the same government that kept its official country's name (Republic of China), it's the same as electing Republican or Democratic party, that doesn't change the identity of the USA.
Can you do a video on the future of the Caribbean Islands? The whole batch of small island nations have arguably some of the lowest future prospects for growth. They've been stagnant all these decades. Are they doomed to continue that way? Do you think the caribbean nations will group together into one big country to expand their economy?
Yes and the pacific islands too, like what civilisation would they even be considered a part of
@@Muslim-og3vc the Pacific Islands will probably be underwater by the next century, atoll are very flat.
@@jackyex Some might still exist above the waves but ya most will be gone in a few decades
The Dominican Republic has been growing a lot economically. I wouldn’t count them out
@@jackyex that is debatable
A russo american alliance would be like a pack of wolves working together to hunt a deer but end up fighting over the meat itself
sort of like WWII
Modern Russia? I'd dump NATO in a second to see a U.S-Russia alliance. NATO is almost entirely comprised of useless European cowards, happily bending the knee to China. Russia has so much more to offer, and they are a deeply nationalist Christian empire. Sounds great.
@@thisisaname5589 Russia is bending the knee to China, most of Europe is an ally to the USA, what 3 countries can fight wars away from their doorstep?
@@bristoled93 An ally that is not willing to fight is not an ally at all. Russia isn't bending anything to China. Russia and China despise each other, Russia simply is forced to work with China because we're stupid and we don't give them any other option. China wants to control Vladivostok. And frankly, if we did the smart thing and ditched NATO for Russia, there's no reason Britain couldn't come along too.
@@thisisaname5589 Britain's kind of our little puppy at this point. What a shift from the late 1600's/early-mid 1700's lmao
I’ve always wondered if micro chips will be extremely important in a modern world war. The supply is relatively in-elastic (due to infrastructure investments) so it can be thought of as a resource (like oil). It’s why Taiwan could be incredibly important in the next war as they dominate the chip supply. I wonder if there is any policies in place that that involve the destruction of its foundries if china makes landfall.
Did you notice Micron pulled its design stuff from Taiwan recently?
Why wouldn't the opposition just bomb the factories though
Taiwan's grip on the semiconductor industry is the primary reason why the invasion of Taiwan would spark a global conflict. The semiconductor shortage has already created huge panic in the West; if China were to suddenly wipe out 55% of the market, the rest of the world would probably respond in kind.
@@TheKeksadler I would add that the part that is there is the bleeding edge state of the art part too.
China wants to dominate the leading edge, and between the IP and the actual.know how is finding it difficult to get there (Intel keeps trying and is still behind TSMC by what 2 nodes?).
I doubt the west would just let that IP and the foundries go into chinese possession.
IF the enemy boards your battleship, you scuttle her rather than let her become the enemies battleship...
@@ryanbazan5016 The same reason you don't burn the oil fields except when you know it's impossible to win.
When in history class in highschool my teacher said that wars happen less because people are smarter. And that the reason why the cold war didn't turn into an actual war is because people were smart to see how wars are bad and kill people. He didn't didn't mention nuclear weapons! He simply said that people saw war as pricy and costly for human lives which stopped an actual war in the cold war. Very weird to me.
Your high school history teacher didn't teach the concept "Mutually Assured Destruction"? That was curriculum in my public school, in the textbooks and always in the end of year exams
We are not smarter than our ancestors. We are more knowledgeable compared to your average ancestor due to the internet and books. But the ruling class in the past was usually also well educated.
I think your history teacher is completely wrong. Although, I wish he was right!
Your history teacher sounds like an idiot
@@TheSwordofStorms I mean it wasn't on the topic of the cold war but he mentioned it in class. He said this in Grade 11 which was our Ancient History class where we learn about ancient civilizations. But he basically said that we are smarter now than they were in the past because of the fact we don't wage constant wars and brought up that cold war remark. But he also teaches history in grade 10 which is the 20th century including the cold war. So that's what happened in context.
@@FK-tz7gs he actually is really nice and he does say many true things. In fact that's the only thing I can complain about since he is mostly correct on what he says (and what I think to be true as well).
Your historical angle on modern geopolitics is SO good! No one is doing it like this on youtube!
It really changes everything once you look at things on such a large time scale. You're able to see the patterns and trends, and make predictions accordingly.
An invasion of Taiwan COULD also be a Crete-style paratrooper landing, not just a naval one.
It would probably be both, if it doesn't turn out that the Taiwanese are able to contest Chinese air superiority.
It's the same deal though. The American Air Force is just as dominant as its Navy. Plus, boats are probably the best bet for getting the mind-boggling number of troops to the island. In order to both take and then occupy the island and keep the millions and millions of locals at bay, you'd need an absolutely awesome number of invading troops. I just don't see the Chinese managing to paradrop a couple hundred thousand troops plus their equipment.
So yeah, realistically they would have no choice but to include a lot of ships in an invasion, no matter what.
D-day required amphibious landings to get so many vehicles and supplies to the european continent that the allies could then drive all the way to berlin. Taiwan is not a continent, so I agree that paratroopers would be the primary attack force.
@@lucasharvey8990 The USAF can't base close enough to the strait to be a dominant force. We'd be talking 1000+ nm radius patrols. High concentration of warplanes also makes a juicy missile target.
The Fallschirmjäger may have won in the end, but they were decimated on Crete.
I don't think they ever did a major operation after that.
Of course, China may not care about that.
Do you think Central Asia would side with Russia or China in the factional breakdown of a (sort of) United Asian alliance with the two states opposing America?
Russia i assume, due to post soviet and Russian Empire connections, Central Asian elite’s being close to to russia and due to the uyghur genocide. Although i dont see Russia and China opposing each other anytime soon due to being againts the west in Ukraine and Taiwan
@@Muslim-og3vc That’s a great point, I absolutely agree with those points. However, my only wonder is the belt and road initiative of the Chinese into Central Asia. It honestly seems like the combating spheres of influence of the Chinese and Russians, as well as the Chinese and Americans should logically push Russia and America together geopolitically. I think that as the old Cold War bureaucrats of the United States begin to leave office, and without a major war between Russia and America, the two states have much more to gain in their own interests together than apart.
@@Muslim-og3vc they might not be opposed to one-another right now, but the moment the us/west is a non threat to them, their "alliance" will break. Which leads to the original ops question of who central Asia will side with in this situation
@@tristingoode4722 Alienating China is what made Russia so aggressive in the first place. The Kremlin would've never dreamed of building up such a massive force to invade Ukraine and threaten peace in Europe if they had to devote half of their force to defend the Manchurian border with China.
@@explosivereactionstv7414 yes with their current governments, but the US is definitely going to try to get others to support the Uighur cause in order to cause problems in China
"every plan is good until the first shot is fired", came to my mind at 12:30, reminded me about the circumstances and unforseen problems generals on both sides have to face probably and this would be one of the first wars in 21st century where two superpowers with (like you said) no leaked informations about their arsenal would clash against each other...
Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face!"
- Mike Tyson
I imagine China has a plan, but just how panicked, or stupid will they become, if they implement that plan ... and then get punched in the face? Real hard!
@@Grubnar China has been in a war of attrition with the world for 5000 years already.
@@GL-iv4rw and even with themselves lmao
I've never clicked a video faster. What happens in Taiwan in the next couple of years will define the 21st Century.
@@Ps3GamerVideos Beer Hall Putsch seems extremely accurate. So we are 15 or so years away from WW3...
Based on this, will you be exploring the different ‘hotspots’ that currently exist in the international stage?
Taiwan and Ukraine are the two biggest right now
Yeah you have N & S korea, China and Taiwan, Kashmir, The balkans, the Caucuses, The middle east, Egypt and Ethiopia, Ukraine
@@Muslim-og3vc Don't forget the Spratly Islands.
I think the odds of the US not getting heavily involved in an invasion of Taiwan are very, very low. For one thing, Japan would never stand for such an invasion and would be compelled to defend Taiwan, which would in turn compel the US to defend Taiwan if they weren't compelled already. Taiwan is a modern democracy with loads of soft power behind it. No western nation could sit idly by and watch it fall due to shared ideologies, and no Pacific nation would sit idle due to encroachment. It really would be WW3, which is why it would only happen if there were serious deterioration beforehand. Some people think Taiwan could be like the Falklands, but only the UK cared about the Falklands and no one worried that Argentina would use the Falklands as a stepping stone to take over South America. If China were to use Taiwan as a distraction from internal strife it would only test the waters with attacks. It would not not launch a full invasion unless it was prepared to start WW3.
china can lettirley counquer tiwan right now but they are waiting to make it with a less of a cost
Let's not forget TSMC. Nothing we can make domestically will match the chips TSMC can make _today_ for half a decade. Samsung & TSMC are to my knowledge the only two in the world who have current gen chip foundries.
@@Low_commotion it's already building a 3nm chip factory in Arizona. So if war broke out America would still have advanced chips on its soil
@@millevenon5853 That's great news. Though, considering that's one of our reasons to defend Taiwan, I wonder what the Taiwanese government's thinking is behind that. Surely they must have given their OK on it.
@@Low_commotion it's building a nano metre chip in Japan as well. Japan is the country most committed to defending Taiwan. Taiwan built a huge factory after being pressured by Trump.
It built a 16nm chip in China too. But the advanced 3nm one were reserved for friendly nations only
I wish you’d make a playlist of all your videos. CZcams will put literally anything but another one of your videos in the queue. I just want to watch them all back to back sometimes
No matter what happens, Brazil never changes. I'm gonna move there if war breaks out.
Your probably gonna be more likely to be killed in Brazil than in Taiwan China frontline
Brazil.... Brazil never changes
Better off heading to Argentina, essentially a White Brazil with less crime.
@@Muslim-og3vc Killed by* Brazil.
Plot twist: Then Brazil changes
Bro this dude thinks of China as some major antagonist villain.
*"The Panda bear is an animal that has much potential to kill you, but as long as you do provoke it, it won't provoke you"*
Provoking a panda is as simple as wearing a jacket it wants.
@@kokofan50 Lmao, the panda wont exactly kill you because of a jacket, now will it?
@@Andrew-ip7cd yeah, they will. Pandas are exceptionally lazy and rather stupid bears, but they are bears and have occasionally mulled people to death.
@@kokofan50 That's because the events you see are obviously filtered. It isn't as if New outlets post every time when someone isn't mulled to death and tbf, most aren't on purpose. Besides, we're getting off track here lol
@@Andrew-ip7cd You said never happens and now you’re saying rarely happens. Those are different things. Moreover, I never said it was common.
I think this is still on topic. You used a metaphor of a panda for China not attacking other countries, but we have come to conclusion that pandas do attack people unprovoked, just like China has. Just because your metaphor doesn’t say what you thought it did, doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.
Do Ukraine. I think this is something larger than Taiwan for the moment.
Was Putin Ukrainian?
@@SHAHIDKC ukrainian is not a culture or a nationality, lenin created it
@@helast3916 lol, ukraine first mention was in 14 cetury if my memory don't deceive me
not really tbh
well russian trying to act on ukraine could make china decide to do something while the americans are preoccupied
Do another break down of U.S. politics, I think that would be interesting.
PLEASE NO SIR
YOU WILL INVOKE THE TRUE WW3 IN THE COMMENT SECTION
Although you identified the first island defense chain. you failed to mention the second chain of islands further out in the Pacific. China has been cozying up to these settlements to find their own "unsinkable carriers" and resupply stations for vessels on their way to the West.
The country I think your comment immediately made me think of is Sri Lanka. China has debt-trapped and belt-and-roaded Sri Lanka into an ally right at the doorstep of India. Of course to get there China will have to either get it's navy past Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, the US Navy, and the Indian Navy, or go over Tibet/the Himalayas and break through India, possibly to Bangladesh.
@@mitchells7634 Breaking through Himalaya and India when China can move through its Pakistan or Myanmar allies to access the Indian ocean ? Also, the debt trap bullshit has been debunked (actually China cleared Sri Lanka's from another creditor by giving more money, Sri Lanka has more debt toward IMF and japan), it's a projection and the IMF is actually doing it, that's why countries are borrowing money from China with lower interest rates, the most recent example is Argentina joining the Belt and Road Initiative after having issues with IMF.
Before watching the video: I'm gonna say the answer is no. China isn't gonna be dumb enough to attack an American ally across a strait 3 times longer than the English channel, and anyway everyone is expecting that fuse to light. If WWIII happens it's gonna be on a front people aren't looking at.
I think India is a better candidate.
Taiwan is not American ally and the US follows a policy of strategic ambiguity with respect to it for the simple reason that it is 100% not worth WW3.
They couldn’t invade over the Himalayas, so they would have to invade from one of their allies like Pakistan or Sri Lanka. But it would be hard to do that with stealth, so I don’t see it as very likely.
czcams.com/video/KwaJjJAbEew/video.html
It absolutely is a possibility.
The US won't be dumb enough to get involved in a world war with the world's largest country over a Chinese island.
They're just acting strong at the moment but the moment war breaks out they'll go to the negotiating table.
@@frigidlava617 Oi Pakistan isn't our ally we hate them
One step that could be mentioned - Taiwan controls a bunch of smaller islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Dongsha Islands, etc) most of them much closer to the Chinese coast. One strongly suspects that the Chinese, a people willing to play the long game, not yet completely confident in their abilities and trying to gauge the US reaction, will seize a few of these first before aiming for Taiwan itself. Some years might even pass between such operations - much like Putin's seizure of Crimea in 2014 as a possible prelude to the current buildup in 2022.
I did want to point out something. Right now Vietnam has 20 percent of its trade with the USA and 20 percent with China. Also, China just built the first metro line in Hanoi this year. While Vietnam might culturally dislike China, the truth is since the 90's they're mostly settled into a trading partner relationship
I don’t think Vietnamese culturally dislike China. Their culture is based off ancient Chinese traditions. You’ll find a lot of cultural similarities between southern Chinese and Vietnamese. They hate China politically. China took the authoritarian Maoist approach while Vietnam took the Soviet glasnost approach after the Vietnam War.
@@dr.woozie7500 In fact, Southern Chinese and Vietnamese are very similar in appearance. Northern Chinese looks more like Mongols and Koreans while southern Chinese can look very similar to Northern Thais, Burmese and Vietnamese.
12:17 ah yes, when people thought WW2 would repeat WW2. Whats worse than WW2? WW2 squared. Love the videos!
Another thing making a potential invasion more difficult is the fact that we'd basically know about it more than a month in advance. Congregating fleets capable of assailing Taiwan takes a lot of time and satellites ensure that we'd know about it well beforehand. I also imagine the U.S. would make that info public for image reasons, just like it did for a Russian troop buildup. If Russia can't hide troop buildup off Ukraine, China probably can't hide troop buildup near Taiwan.
I imagine the U.S. would intervene in Taiwan should China attack, because otherwise its promises mean essentially nothing. Not to mention, it would seem to me that if the goal is to curb China's economic growth, fighting a war with them might not be the worst way to do that. Bombing Chinese infrastructure back to the stone age might be pretty bad for China.
If China fails to take Taiwan, I don't see a logical way the CCP could continue to justify its existence.
China - unlike Russia, has the resources and manpower to assemble and permanently maintain a ready invasion force and also to run numerous dummy runs that dont eventuate. Basically always being ready to invade for up to a decade without changes means that you could not prepare for the defense unless you were willing to commit the same resources as China every single time they fake a build up.
well you forgot that china cant be bomed back to stone age also usa cant join the war cuz will this might go to a NUCLEAR WAR
@@youbgemer7196, china has more than enough conventional land based missiles to destroy any enemy assets in its local area - including the US military bases in Okinawa. China could not take the war further than the range of their shorter range missile systems since they would soon run out of power projection ability if they are too far from the mainland, but they could almost certainly prevent deployment of hostile naval assets in the sea around Taiwan
If they dont want you to see it, you wont see it. Remember how awe struck everyone was when Russian tanks suddenly appeared in Georgia? Or when Crimea was taken? Nobody had a clue these troops were moving.
@@benharris7358 I'm pretty sure China has stolen some tech from the west and or probably hiding some more missile tech we haven't seen.
6:25 The US dances by stating that there is one China, but not specifying if it's the Taiwan China or the China China. And it's acknowledges the existence of China, which differs from accept or recognize. Diplomats are very careful with their word choice
all diplomats should speak softly (be careful with words)
@@sinoroman speak softly and carry a big stick
Reminds me of a Game of Civilization 5 I was playing, my allies requested that I join a war against Japan but I refused every time and little did I realize that Japan was already a world superpower, I supplied my allies with weapons and equipment like the small city states but it wasn't enough, Japan was just too powerful by this time.
My mistake was having a war with America (I was England) I had reduced them to 1 city then made peace with them, that was when The Japanese attacked, my forces were depleted and weakened, luckily I had a strong navy but even that didn't help.
Japan was just steam rolling me and that is a problem world powers have all the time, stay neutral or be with your allies in the war.
Rookie mistake my boy.
I play Civilization 6 (being playing since the original) at king or emperor level and I win 9/10 (mostly space, occasionally cultural and twice both religious and domination). I suggest you change your strategy, btw I NEVER supply anyone with ANYTHING - no luxuries, units, no open borders, ect.
@@elliottprats1910 Some people want to have fun instead of meta gaming
Better question is when will Tawain spark a US-China conflict? If things heat up in Ukraine, they'll heat up in Taiwan too
It's not only about face, it's also about that it's easy to block Chinese maritime trade, ruining the country in a a few weeks. Owning Taiwan makes that much harder. Likewise Taiwan is basically a big island that projects a military threat towards Chinas rich coast, owning Taiwan not only removes the threat but it also would be a great power projection for China, and lets not forget any rich waters with natural gas that would then belong to mainland China. Add this to the reasons mentioned in the video and you have a good many reasons for mainland to claim Taiwan.
I would say that Taiwán being a microchip powerhouse is also a big factor. The modern world runs off them so everyone would like to control such a resource
Im pretty sure that's gone the moment China invades
@@rikgales123 How giant factories will be "gone" form one day to another?
@@user-uf2df6zf5w explosives
@@Doochos Who's explosives?
@@user-uf2df6zf5w Taiwanese
2 videos in 2 days! What a treat, thank you!
You completely got it wrong. China does not care about the symbolic part of the island. It needs the island back for strategic purposes and economic unity.
You have no idea what Face Culture is. look it up
Brilliant, entertaining and enlightening.... I think the nub is even if you can’t predict events (writing in mid April after you know what, ho ho...) you need to be thinking about possibilities and potential scenarios. Every time I watch one of your movies I come away with my mental picture of the world expanded in so many interesting and unexpected ways. So thank you and greetings from the U.K.
Been craving your material; keep up the good work.
Back to back uploads! I’m in heaven
Another awesome video, friend. Peter Zeihan and Dan Carlin would approve! Also, we are truly living in interesting times.
Love your work, full of information and entertaining
Thanks for cranking all these videos out it made my day even better
The world: *Ukraine is about to start ww3*
Whatifalthist: "let's talk about Taiwan"
Next: North Korea
Ukraine is a sideshow; neither America or the EU will shed a single drop of blood over it. At worst, Russia will just be slapped with some sanctions
@@chico9805 "Just slapped with sanctions". The sanctions proposed by the EU and West are disastrous. The last round of sanctions made the Russian GDP shrink by 30%. The next Sanction round (if SWIFT is involved) would lower the Russian GDP by another 75%. This would mean almost a century of economic progress would be lost and Russian GDP per capita would become on par with Nigeria.
The sanctions are absolutely devastating and can in a way affect Russia more than military opposition.
@@joey199412 You're correct, highly exaggerative, but correct. However, none of that undermines my point - If Russia chooses to invade, it will do so unopposed
@@chico9805 If we do not respond to Russian aggression, then Taiwan's days would be numbered. China would be taking notes and making decisions based on that.
A Russian-American alliance makes sense, but when has that mattered?
Instead, do you think that an escalation to an invasion of the Ukraine might incite China into invading Taiwan while the US is distracted in the West?
it may but really it depends on many other factors
That is 100% a possibility. It's pretty generally agreed that china and russia will begrudgingly be allies against the us in a hypothetical ww3, so I feel both Ukraine and Taiwan will end up having something happen if one falls.
Who knows, maybe the whole build up in Ukraine rn is because the Russians are waiting for china to invade Taiwan and *they* seize the opportunity while the us is distracted in thr east
Putin should hope that USA and China go into war. If he is smart he will just sit it out in Ukraine. No matter who will win China and Amarica will probably be devastated after the war. The 3rd world would collapse afterwards and EU is weak. They would serve the Earth on a platter to Russia.
@@caopi9783 I feel it would be very, *very* hard for Russia to sit out of a China-US war. Not to mention whoever wins that war would come out stronger, which would prompt Russia to be more involved as to avoid having a bigger threat down the line
America's focus is almost solely on Taiwan, the Ukraine situation is literally a media circus. If Ukraine falls, Russia gains some strength and the EU wets itself, but America will be mostly unharmed. However, if Taiwan falls? American supremacy is destroyed and its alliances across the world will immediately weaken, as such an event would prove that America can no longer protect its dependencies.
Great video! And thank you for listing your sources ❤️
Thank you for the insight.
I love your content. You have change the way I view things. Thank you so that. I would love to hear your thoughts about Ukraine right now. Keep up the great work!
2 videos in under 24 hours?! You spoil us M’lord
Love the content. Keep it up boss.
You by far have the best of CZcams what ifs and whys I always leave you channel feeling smarter
A combination of snap releases to attract the returning audience followed by less frequent but consistent, probably the best method
An Embargo against China would be considered an act as war just as much as landing troops there would be. I believe that's the opinion of international law as well.
A trade embargo would bring hyperinflation to ameria. It would unite all Asian countries against america as all of them have China as their primary trading partner. This CZcamsr does not have adequate knowledge on this matter.
@@wanghui562 true. The only thing that will slow down China is 500 million old people it will have in less than 20 years. China will have Japanese style demographics in just 15 years. And its workforce decreases by 35 million people every 5 years
@@millevenon5853 China had a one child policy. China can have a ten child policy if needed. Thanks for your concern, but you ought to look at the demography within western nations to conclude that Chinese people will see civil wars in western countries before we grow old.
@@millevenon5853 that's assuming it doesn't break apart again in the meantime like China is historically notorious for doing
@@xfrostyresonance8614 The average time it takes for china to 'break' is longer than the entire existance of the US as a country.
Another great video.
Your videos are awesome and they give me reason to live don't stop
What are your thoughts on the recent things happening between Ukraine and Russia?
12:17 typo, you said that people thought ww2 would be like ww2, though still amazing considering you made this in 9 days
Brilliant as ever. Thank you
Thank you for the video
5:46 I wonder how many times out of each war did both sides severely weaken each other to the point that they were replaced by other powers
Well in the original Thucydides trap this is what happens. In his original example of the Peloponnesian War, after a brutal war Sparta manages to destroy Athens, but it’s severely weakened and it’s quickly defeated by the new ascending power of Thebes, who then forms a new hegemony. So yeah, that’s a real possibility.
It happened in the modern day. The American rise grew directly out of WW1 causing Germany, France, and Britain substantial damage, and the American ascendancy was boosted further by WW2.
One of the biggest examples are the Byzantine Sassanian wars.
It's a good point, but there's not very many other nations positioned to capitalize and become a world power. Russia is the closest example but they still lack a level of food security and freshwater access/security (both arguably strong reasons why the current Ukraine mess is going down) and they're still suffering from population issues from the human losses in WWII AND potential cultural infighting as Islam becomes more and more popular.
That's not to say that there isn't the possibility for strong regional powers to take shape. Turkey is well on it's way to regional power status, while if France can resolve it's cultural/demographic issues it could transform their partial military independence from NATO into becoming a Hegemone of West+Central Europe. Vietnam with a few good investments could become a new regional south-Asian power and South America+Africa will continue to South America+Africa by not being able to capitalize on world circumstances due to corruption, geography, and racial/cultural conflict. A collapsing China/US could just lead to a lot of strong regional powers but a significant period with no true 'world' powers.
The US and Britain almost fought but Britain backed out. After WW2 Britain attack Egypt over the Canal, the US threaten to fight a war against Britain if it didn’t stop, and Britain backed down.
US has completely surpassed Britain at that point.
I don't think the US threatened war, but rather economic punishment.
@@Max-xs8dv economic punishment comes before military punishment. Britain backed down before it went any further.
The US never threatened Britain with war.
No they didn't he usa threatened economic embargo and sections not war
I love your stuff. I always want to scream at u for the long ads on top of your plugs but then by end of video it was always worth it. I just wish u could throw them at the end. I wonder if there’s a playlist or five that lost your related videos so I can listen audio. I mean the graphics are great but sometimes I like to relisten as I drive. I’m probably responsible for twenty plus views per video of yours lol
ur geopolitical videos are my faves!
Great video!! Did you know that there is US sovereign territory right across the Philippine sea?? Guam a key US territory has multiple US bases, and the Marianas combined is home to around 200,000 US citizens
The presence of gradients made me do a double take on whether or not this is a whatifalthist video.
love your content. I refer to you as "my historian" when linking people your content.
Double upload
Awesome!
People have been talking about WWIII and it never happened. It's overhyped and it's likely not gonna happen forever. We are the middle children of history, no great wars, no Great Depression.
15:00 Okinawa was never part of China. It was a tributary of China, but it was independent until Japan annexed it in the Victorian Era.
Eh, doesn't really matter now. Under no circumstances will the PRC be able to get their grubby little hands on it anytime in the next few decades at least, and given the amount of enemies they've got in literally every direction, that's unlikely to change.
@IJŠƇĦͦ̚5ɜPƔNjƇάȥɓϋξ îπɛş\x91͈ǷǯƠɱ\ Japanese, because the balance of planes and aircraft carriers says so.
@IJŠƇĦͦ̚5ɜPƔNjƇάȥɓϋξ îπɛş\x91͈ǷǯƠɱ\ Japanese, Okinawans are a related, but distinct culture to Japanese.
Don't underestimate the power of a blockaid, food alone as well as a major decrease in trade and investment.
Ayo two whatifalthist video in one day nice.
Whatifaltist: come because of the alternate history, stay because of the geopolitics. This video is very interesting because it is both.
What if the Knights Templar never fell?
What if the Raid on Harper's Ferry succeeded?
What if Malcolm X was never assassinated?
If he lived to 9/11 he could stop the Iraq war
another great video.
Thank you for the geopolitics
This got outdated real fast didn't it?
Red Button: Unnecessary war with USA that could kill 10's a millions of people, Possible global annihilation.
Blue button: Sit back, do nothing, and get along, we all know your strong, just be chill about it.
China: Hmmm this is a tough choice ;-;
2 whatifalthist videos in one day, you spoil us man
Your videos are cool as always
Coming from China, the ‘China’ perspective is a disappointingly Western view of things. Yes, Taiwan is a long-held goal, but more importantly it is a geopolitical strategy to breakthrough USA’s first island chain. In addition your classification of most of Asia as a US ally is false and simplistic, perhaps naive. The average Asian mindset is much more pragmatic than the West, and when I comes down to it will side with China by staying neutral - I for one am certain ASEAN will not take any action except for a few condemnations and statement of concerns
Plus recently China built a metro in Hanoi and a national railroad in Laos. That’s bought them a lot of goodwill and trade. It arguably serves them better than the USA way of threatening bombing
Good video overall but I have to push back on the underselling of Taiwan as a target. The island's location makes it a key strategic point for China's maritime defense and trade routes for the reason you already stated: China is more-or-less surrounded on it's sea belt. That makes seizing Taiwain a necessity for China if it feels some type of war is inevitable anyway. Having their Navy able to finally navigate the Pacific in spite of their neighbor's opinions would likely outweigh the consequences of international condemnation.
The chip shortage we've been undergoing since 2020 is also something that can't be overstated. With the overwhelming majority of microchips essential in modern technology coming from the ROC, a vulnerable flashpoint has been exposed by the shortage. This can't be immediately remedied by diversifying as it takes significant time and investment to lay the groundwork for such facilities. Meaning if the CCP was somehow able to take Taiwan without American military pushback AND seize these facilities intact, it would be holding the world's technology industry by the balls. More realistically, if the chip production facilities were destroyed by the ROC as a last resort during a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it would without question cause serious damage to the world's economy.
It’s for the semiconductor reason that I think America would step up to protect Taiwan. The Biden admin and the rest of the world has seen the importance of keeping the chips flowing, and they know the kind of damage it could do if China destroyed or captured TSMC
@@Ry_TSG Or more likely cut a deal with China to delay their occupation of Taiwan until the chip manufacturing has been moved back to the US.
I don't think China is particularly keen on spending millions of lives to temporarily disrupt the global supply chain only to get basically nothing from it. The US would stop trading with China, which would make industry flourish elsewhere and semiconducters would be produced somehwere else, even if it does take a lot of time. Japan and South Korea are only importing oil from the middle east because its the cheapest, not because its the only option, so the US alliance network could esentially get around every strategic advantage china could get from seizing Taiwan. If China took Taiwan, the result would be that the US alliance network would move away from chinese influence and isolate China.
@@onlyfacts4999 There is no way China would accept that.
edit: Taiwan, not China
@@8is Yes they will if the alternative is to fight America in a war
So, “I must capture -the Avatar- Taiwan to restore my honor”
Yes! The video I’ve been waiting for!
Who's interested in more ideological difference and future of communities and nations?
I'm gonna have to disagree with you on that first point, because while I am worried about Taiwan, In January (now February) of 2022 I am a lot more fixated on Ukraine since that situation seems to be escalating. And like someone else said maybe China will see their chance here.
Edit: immediately after writing this I realized It's probably because I am western focused. I try not to be biased but I guess I'm bad at it?
Another favorite books video!
@3:27 is gold. If our leaders understand this, things will get a lot easier.
I've watched & enjoyed many of your excellent videos in the past. I can not let this headline go by without objection. If the CCP attempts to invaid Taiwan, it will not be Taiwan which causes the war, but the Communist Chinese Party.
Nice Whatifalthist to help me get through the day...until he ruins it with depressing speculations about the near future...Dang not as happy as i was.
Perfect content for Chinese New Year
omg can you do an alternate history of greenland where they take over the arctic and become the supreme leader of the northwest passage
India as an American ally, especially a strong one, is questionable call. India, in their young post-colonial era, allied loosely with the USSR and maintain strong ties with Russia to this day. The USSR-India alliance is the reason that the USA included Pakistan into the western bloc despite Pakistan not being western in most senses. The USA can count on India being a thorn in China’s side but they’re a big question mark on where they’ll fall if the USA comes into conflict with Russia.
Source: WION (Indian state mouthpiece media), others.
Wion is not a state mouth piece , it is a private news organisation , but they are right , we are not keen against a war with russia as russia gives us weapons and have been a historical partner , we are against china but not russia .
India is not a US ally. We have some common interest with regards to the China but that's about it. We are not going to support you in your conflict with Russia. If anything most of the people actually prefers Russia, seeing the US as degenerate society. The government certainly will remain friendly to the US because we want to make money trading with you(you remain the largest economy after all!) and send the millions of surplus workers we cannot employ here. But we have no ideological love for you like UK, Canada and Western Europe.
@@greatwolf5372 We Chinese do not care about India at all but on this point of american degeneracy, we completely agree. Merican government is a zoo. A real zoo with barbaric animals in the shape of humans.
@@greatwolf5372 degenerate is laughable when you can find literal shit on Indian streets.
@@millevenon5853 San Francisco is in India🤔
US: HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN!?! WE HAVE THE WORLDS OCEANS IN OUR NAVYS HANDS?!?, WHY WOULD THEY ATTACK OUR ALLIES!?!?
British empire: aw shit here we go away
You make some of the best videos I’ve ever seen
You have thematic Playlists but have you tried doing didactic ones? Where the first video is about the civilization and its origin, then its geopolitical situation, and maybe its place in a global geopolitical video.
I think China is trying to wait on 2 things, 1 retraining of their army, as they just started moving funds from the navy to the army, and 2 the world is much less likely to step in and defend Taiwan if the new fabs are up and running in Europe and the united states. It makes Taiwan much less important, strategically.
After Hong Kong its fair to say that the world won't want to get involved in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but would hasten Western disengagement with China. Our Allies South Korea and Japan might not take a quiet reaction very well.
Different cases, Hong Kong was already a part of China.
South Korea can deal with North Korea. Japan has lost their military spirit so they are not invading.
@@1mol831 They have ? Re militarization is growing increasingly popular in Japan
@@nunbiz7328 If you mean more money spent on ships without enough sailors and planes sitting on tarmac without enough pilots you are right.
@@TheCowardRobertFord True but Hong Kong had special laws that made it separate from China (that was meant to expire on 2047).... until of course that whole national security law was passed
2 vids in 2 days? Lets go dude
I see you have a bibliography in the description. Nice