Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 7. 07. 2024
- đ„ đđąđđĄ Real Vision for FREE rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049
01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg
01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy
02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook
03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle
04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy
05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates
06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances
07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks
08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings
09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices
10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements
11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals
12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions
13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors
14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down
15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth
16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation
18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts
19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains
21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy
22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand
23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy
24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports
25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession
26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages
27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation
28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector
29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target
30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market
31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks
33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior
35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation
36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare
38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers
40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities
41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs
43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment
44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions
46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels
48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology
50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing
51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing
52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle
53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions
54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior
55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing
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00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049
01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg
01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy
02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook
03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle
04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy
05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates
06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances
07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks
08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings
09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices
10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements
11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals
12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions
13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors
14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down
15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth
16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation
18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts
19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains
21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy
22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand
23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy
24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports
25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession
26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages
27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation
28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector
29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target
30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market
31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks
33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior
35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation
36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare
38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers
40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities
41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs
43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment
44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions
46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels
48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology
50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing
51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing
52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle
53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions
54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior
55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing
Thanks for the very detailed table of contents. Appreciate it.
How is the pinned comment older than the video???
Permabear will eventually be right. But he cried WOLF for a long time. đ
Thanks for watching!
If Rosenberg videos post, hold all my calls
Rosenberg 5 years ago: "We'll have a recession next year" (no recession). 4 years ago: "recession has already started" (no recession) 2 years ago: "the risk is recession" (no recession) 1 year ago: "recession is slamming demand" (no recession) 9 months ago: "recession coming in 6 months" (no recession). Trend here ?
Thanks for watching!
Lool thatâs what all these CZcams channels do man itâs the new mainstream media. They just want your views.
The Raoul Pal special
UK entered a Recession in March.
You get the money from the money print press ,its illegal and a big crime against the people who have no stocks or property.
You are a bad investor but get richer by the FED.
Dave, based on what you said, it looks to me like you should have been bullish in the face of all the liquidity. Now might be the the time to go short.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, it's great to have a variety of opinions.
Throw in underemployed gig workers and unemployment is higher than 10%
This guy has been stating the recession narrative for at least 4 years now, at some point he will be right. But for his forecast to be of any value he has to have the timing be correct. Otherwise there is zero value in it.
Thank you very much...
What's he talking about? "Most people" saying economy is doing well. Based on my CZcams video suggestions it's quite the opposite. Most people expecting recession / "collapse"
He means most people on TV. People who live in the real world are losing their minds over how bad things have become. Food prices are way up, there's no overtime at work, and pay raises are nowhere close to matching inflation for the past 4 years.
What about the fed backed home equity loans? Couldnât that re-accelerate things?
lol! This guyâs been calling for a recession for about the last FIVE years!! đđđđđ
Lower prices always excites me even when broke! Learn for many years and you will make wise decisions even if not trading but rather long term investors! â€ïžlow prices! No matter how small you buy gains are coming! Just donât buy high!
Raul, whee is Maggie? What did you do with her?
The market carried out Wilson and Kalonavic. If Rosie actually had any skin in the game heâd have been carted offf a long time ago. As soon as Rosie capitulates put a fork in it. Itâs done.
Does anyone even bother listening to this guy? Like a stopped clock he will be right some year and then say "See." Meanwhile he has missed a great bull run for the last two years.
Thanks for watching!
"bull run" of 7 stocks đ€Ą
@@prolific1518 That is enough for me.
That bit with Anoush was helerious đ
I'm glad you enjoyed that part with Anoush!
What part about 'the government needs currency devaluation' doesn't this guy get?
This guy REFUSES to admit he has been and is still WRONG!
Perpetual bear. Has cost his followers a fortune
â€
First
You were quick on the draw to claim the first spot!
The years of Covid were also years of great resignation , were compensations went up 40%, and that part is still there , in contrast of mentioned depleted savings
10:40 Jerome Powell is a political operative. His only goal is to get Biden reelected.