Naval war is back after grain deal collapse
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- čas přidán 3. 06. 2024
- Russia has left the grain initiative, and the naval war is back on the agenda. But it's far from certain that Russia will benefit from this, and it almost raises the question of whether Russia was tricked into leaving.
0:00 Intro
0:31 History of grain deal
1:12 Why Russia entered the deal
2:17 Russian benefits with the grain deal
2:57 Sea control
4:18 Grain deal gave Russia control
5:46 July renewal process
6:39 Kerch Bridge attack changed the game
7:52 Unclear what Russia will do now
8:47 Requirements for a blockade
10:21 Russian dilemmas
11:11 A Ukrainian trap?
12:07 Ukraine wants maritime control
“A range of dilemmas they hadn’t thought through”. That describes the entire war.
Russias war effort is like the scene in "Star Wars: A New Hope" when Han Solo charges screaming into a Hangar full of Storm troopers and then comes running the other way screaming, chased by all of the stormtroopers.
Ukraine seems to be really good at giving Russia dilemmas.
Russia keeps getting forced by Ukraine to make choices between bad options.
I don't think any of this is a coincidence.
"We are Doomed''
- private frazer (Dads Army)
There is this saying, "in war, you don't want to give problems to your enemy, you want to give them dilemmas" (problems have solutions, dilemmas don't)
Well the Ukrainians know the ruZZians better than anyone.
Only good options for Ukraine!!! 🇺🇦 Ukraine is winning!!! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Ukraine is going from good to better!!! 🇺🇦 Ukraine! Freedom! Democracy!!! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
You might have a point. The kerch bridge bombardment could've been a deliberate provocation for which Putin fell.
Kerch bridge bombing is ideologically important for Ukraine. Apart from its logistical value, it's THE holy trinity of must-hit targets, along with moscow and Nordstream. The fact we managed to hit all THREE, multiple times, is just... I'm wet. It's sexually pleasing for Ukrainians to see every time a russian invader is forced to flee Crimea, when muscovites cry scared, and when gas doesn't flow to Germany yet. The NS pipelines built were the biggest loss for Ukraine in nearest history. Destroying them cannot be overstated. Now only thing that remains is russian tanker fleet and oil pipes (most of which we control) to completely stop them from selling fossil fuels.
If that was the case Ukraine would have moved more air defenses to Odessa prior to the bridge attack
@@ArmySigs They don't have enough to do that. If they do, Kyiv gets hit instead
Seriously. You think Putin who has outsmarted the West at every new development is now so unstable because of his success that he has been provoked to make a decision?
You need to read what he has written (written when Biden can barely stay awake)
Putin
"Many have probably heard of the so-called “grain deal,” whose initial purpose was to ensure global food security, reduce the threat of hunger and help the poorest countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America - the reason why Russia undertook the obligation to facilitate its implementation in the first place. This “deal,” however, while it was publicly advertised by the West as a gesture of goodwill that benefited Africa, has in fact been shamelessly used solely for the enrichment of large US and European businesses that exported and resold grain from Ukraine.
Judge for yourselves: in almost a year, a total of 32.8 million tonnes of supplies were exported from Ukraine under the “deal,” with over 70 percent of the exports ending up in high- and upper-middle-income countries, including in the European Union, whereas such countries as Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia, as well as Yemen and Afghanistan, received less than 3 percent of the supplies, i.e. less than one million tonnes.
In the meantime, none of the “deal” provisions relating to the exemption from sanctions of Russian grain and fertiliser exports to world markets, were fulfilled. Moreover, barriers have been mounted even to our attempts to supply free of charge mineral fertilisers to the poorest countries in need. Of 262,000 tonnes of goods blocked in European ports, only two shipments were delivered - one of 20,000 tonnes to Malawi and one of 34,000 tonnes to Kenya. The rest is still unscrupulously held by the Europeans. And this is a purely humanitarian initiative we are talking about, which should be exempt from any sanctions as such.
Considering all these facts, there is no longer any use in continuing the “grain deal” as it has failed to serve its original humanitarian purpose. We argued against further extending the “deal,” which terminated as of July 18"
Viewing Putin as irrational makes us into fools
If we cant respect the calculated decision making of our enemies, we will never win.
This is not a game of calling names ...Putin is serious in what he does at every step and turn.
They started the play with the Azov officers. It's a game they played hand in hand with Erdogan. And he has loved it.
Another analysis different from many journalists and experts but when you think about it, it’s just, again, brilliant and awesome!!!!
Merci beaucoup Anders !
🇨🇦❤️🇺🇦💪👍
Anders is the only Naval War expert I've seen comment on this war on mass media / social media. His unique background and insight, even if just an initial hypothesis, is therefore much valuable.
I wouldn't at all be surprised if Russia fell for another trap. By their own reckoning this misadventure was meant to be over in days. But all the while the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be much smarter than the Russians and done much more with less than anyone could have imagined. The Russians, in most instances, are their own worst enemy.
@glennvanhoecke7798
Your uncalled for, unjustified, juvenile insult that has no connection to what anyone has said
suggests that you have very serious problems.
Strongly recommend that you stay offline until you take a good look at yourself and fix that.
Because right now you're just making yourself look juvenile, immature, crude and nasty.
Its different because its drivel. You agree with it because you believe the propaganda.
He's a fool. The entire rationale of the video is nonsense and is just wishful thinking. To win a war you need realists not fantasists.
This is in my view your best and most insightful video in a long time. Mange tak. 🙂
Was it not Napoleon who said, and I paraphrase here; don't give your enemies problems, give them dilemmas. Problems can be solved, while dilemmas are decisions between two bad choices.
Ukraine has become a master of this endgame.
Thank you for another interesting analysis
Very interesting indeed. If you are correct, someone deserves a medal😉
Дуже Дякою
- From Ukrainian diaspora in Canada
Thank you for your Analysis of the Grain Deal. It really puts a lot of things into a perspective that I haven’t thought about. I look forward to more Videos from you. Many Thanks from Texas.👍👍❤️
Thanks Anders for a thought provoking insight into sea denial and control…
You were right sir, again! Another ship has been effed up and on a russian base proper. Hope you can make a video on this new success!
Tusind mange TAK for indsigt & perspektiver!
I hope developing countries see what's going on and get the message that they also need to help Ukraine win as quickly as possible in order to protect their own interests and that standing on the sidelines letting aggression like Russia's continue is courting disaster.
According To US Department of Agriculture report, global production of wheat in 2022 was about 780 million metric ton.
Ukraine wheat production was about 20 million or about 2,5% of world production.
Whereas Russia wheat production in 2022 was about 91 million ton or 12% global production.
Russia has more than enough wheat to replace Ukraine wheat...
Blockade highlights Russian willingness to use grain to blackmail and underlines the desirability of Ukraine getting back Crimea to secure it's own grain shipping route. From a world perspective this makes Russia look bad, assuming that bothers them.
Unfortunately it doesn't seem like those most likely to suffer due to grain shortages are going to stop supporting Russia. Their politicians have already been bought.
@@gambaridup Are you saying Russia didn't know what to do with 20 mln t?
20+% of its production ??
@@gambaridupthat does not make it okay. It’s bad news for the world but good for Russia - unfortunately. Russia will have more influence on grain prices. Not good at all!
Your analysis is something I literally am hanging out for - thank you!
Let it swing
Well gosh. That’s a whole lot of perspectives I had no idea about. But the thought about the timing did run through my mind on some semi-conscious level. I assumed an atypical blunder by Ukraine not understanding it could work to their benefit.
Anders, based on the recent actions hapoening in Black Sea, seems you were once again right with your analysis! Keep up with the good work!
Every time I turn on CZcams, I hope for some new video from you. I really admire your work here, keep on!
Tusind tak for din altid indsigtsfulde analyse. En fornøjelse at lytte til og få en professionel synsvinkel på militære forhold.
Ukraina! Økonomisk styrke! Frihet! Kornavtalen! Demokrati! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
for noe drit, snakker ikke om hvordan avtalen påvirker de fattiges mat sikkerhet med ett eneste ord.. som om ukraina er alt alle bryr seg om.
@@NTravellerWhat! A strange! Post! 😂🤦🏼♂️
I would be interested in a video about how the Nato-Membership of Finland and Sweden changes the safety and strategy of the nordic nations.
Excellent analysis, as always Anders.
Looks like an accurate prediction, Anders.
A surprising perspective. Haven't heard this from anyone else.
Many thanks!
Very insightful about this topic... You always bring up very interesting thoughts !
Anders, I think you are absolutely right in your analysis of the grain deal situation.
Nice view on this matter, very interesting angle. Thanks for all your work. Please keep it coming..
Best info that I have hears or seen about the grain deal. really thoroughful and easy to understand
This one was really interesting, totally captivating follow through on the grain deal and its consequences, inciteful, thank you.
My blood boiled a little bit when I heard Russia had pulled out. It's nice to hear that - in some ways at least - they're not going to get away with it.
Did you think Russia is governed by a bunch of idiots? The idiots are from Ukraine as they were earning money from the grain deal, but they decided to attack Crimea and obviously, the Russians had enough of Ukraine's lack of fulfillment of the agreement, not to mention NATO. They were too smart for their own good.
Well this has aged incredibly well. Overnight news Russian naval vessel disabled, tanker destroyed (almost). Anders FTW
How prophetic. Now 11 days later you appear to have been spot on the money. Well done for your analysis and for the video. I am finding all your videos informative and interesting. Thank you.
Let me add my voice to the many comments of thanks!! Your experience and expertise make your videos more informative and thought provoking than almost all commentators on CZcams. I really appreciate your efforts! Hope the weather improves for your stay in the countryside!!
I think the important part of the story is the shipping insurance. After Russia's withdrawal from the grain agreement, the cost of shipping insurance to/from Ukraine will certainly skyrocket, possibly making shipping too expensive. I also think that the timetable for the Kerch bridge bombing depends primarily on other, more important aspects, such as the weather, the Russians' movements, etc.
Well, western countries could offer to subsidize insurance?
The bombing of the harbor facilities renders the question of insurance rather moot, right? If the ability of loading ships is not possible, then there will be no need for insurance. You are correct, though, the rates will be prohibitive. But this works for Russian grain shipments also. And remember, most of the insurers are western companies.
Any interested state could jump in and subside the insurance, communicate this openly and align that with UN Food program's efforts to ease the situation. And now wait for Russian reaction. The political price of a sunken ship will be enormous.
@@peterm.2385 Assuming you have ships going on suicide mission what destroyed Ukrainian port will they arrive in?
@@Grumpyoldman037That’s the idea. Ruzzia is hitting Odesa because there’s less political cost than sinking merchant ships. If Ruzzia starts doing that, the fence-sitters in Africa and India will turn against it. The flaw in this is that the damage to the port infrastructure can be repaired relatively quickly, and now Odesa will receive a lot more air defenses, which are currently on the way. Ruzzia is just hoping that the damage to perception is already done.
My opinion is that Turkey should just escort grain ships anyway, and that Putin isn’t stupid enough to attack. Turkey’a Navy greatly outclasses the Ruzzian Black Sea and Mediterranean assets, and has backup if Ruzzia tries to move other assets to the Med to threaten it. Ruzzia will not risk a shooting war with NATO, no matter how much Putin bluffs.
But the lowest risk approach is for Turkey to just close the Bosporus Straits to any Ruzzian ship except for food ships. No oil or anything else. Ruzzia would rejoin the grain deal within a day.
EXCELLENT analysis! I hope you are correct because I agree that Ukraine is really good at outsmarting its much larger opponent. Plus I want to get back to painting ships getting blown up in the Black Sea before summer’s end.
Love the change of scenery in the background, not only did it not rain, but the sun came out- a fitting ending to a stimulating video, thank you.
Amazing analysis. Dang there's such a difference between a professional doing a analysis and all these amateurs populating the internet. Always a pleasure to hear this man's thoughts
Don’t encourage him , this is pure garbage
This is not analysis it's speculation and opinion. He says it himself. 11:14
@@YouKnowItMang well he states that his views are just that his views and should not be taken as facts. Which is a obvious. Nevertheless, they are the result of a analysis of the known facts.
This is not speculation. He still may be wrong but his reasoning still holds.
@@maxdelaserna9540 False. Too many of his claims are made on speculations or opinions not facts. Its a very mixed bag. He doesn't present it as fact but reasoning only holds in a speculative sense. You also contradicted yourself. If his views "Should not be taken as facts" then its literally speculation LOL
Even if they are complete nonsense like in this video. I don't know the regional political landscape, but I DO know that no merchant ships will sail into a warzone if they are being threatened by both sides. There will be no grain ships going to Odessa until russia backs down OR NATO protects them. And NATO direct intervention will be the absolute brink of a nuclear WW III. Since we won't let Ukraine use long range NATO weapons in Russia there is no way NATO will send a navy into the Black sea.
Thank you for a well thought-out perspective - Roger
I agree with 'eskimotoon'. This helped to join a lot of dots. Very thought-provoking. Thank you for sharing your insights.
Slavia Ukrainia ! Herojam Slava !
Great to see you having some downtime Anders.
Why Kerch Bridge burning?
Thank you for sharing your view on the Black Sea
What Ukrainians being clever and smart, and Ruzzians dumb?
Who knew the Ukrainians are this smart ?
If this theory about the timing of the Kerch Bridge attack just before the grain deal expiration turns out to be true, now that would be an actual 4d chess move. Badass.
You always have perspectives that make sense but which others fail to come up with.
Very thought provoking - thank you Anders. Slava Ukraine!
You know you holiday in Northern Europe if you wear a sweater during the day by the end of July!
Cheers from Vienna in 34 degrees heat, thanks for the excellent analysis as always! 🙂
indsigtsfuld og fyldestgørende analyse som altid. Du er altid en af de faste analytikere som jeg går til når jeg skal have fordøjet Ukraine krigen. fortsæt dit gode arbejde.
Puck should dig a hole for himself and spend the next two months in it.
Tilbaketrekking av kornavtalen og importforbudet for ukrainsk korn av Polen, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania og Bulgaria er utmerkede nyheter for ukrainsk økonomi! 🇺🇦 Ukraina kommer til å vinne!!! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
@@m93p "Puck" has won this war, already. Why? Ukrainians has done everything NATO asked them to do. Result? More than 300000 death Ukrainian soldiers, 20 milion displaced and homeless people, who knows how many wounded Ukrainians, and lost teritory. We, NATO countries, has disintegrated one whole country and nation. Again. And we continue to babble about grain deal??? We shoud report ourselves to Hague tribunal for crimes against humanity in Afganistan, Iraq, Libia, Ukraine, etc, and discus our own atrocities. But, it is easier to be cynic, and grind grain.
@@m93pRussian bot
again dropping everything to enjoy your insights and wishing you a wonderful vacation!
Excellent analysis.
Excellent and insightful analysis, had not heard anything similar anywhere else. Thanks!
Looking forward to more videos while you are travelling.
Thanks for all the analysis and insights 🙂
As usual - well reasoned, thought provoking and insightful. Thanks.
Wonderful to hear your thoughts! And the comments of your viewers are also insightful. Thanks.
Others have mentioned that if the grain deal is off, and any ships that may be carrying cargo in the Black Sea are under threat (whether Russia really can enforce the blockade) it means that insurance carriers will refuse to insure any of those ships in which case the shipping may be limited without any real fighting, simply the threat of being sunk. Which is much cheaper than a blockade.
Conversely this means that Russia now has the same problem after Ukraine said it would treat Russian ships the same way.
Only difference is who is giving insurance for Russian ships??😮
@@claus-not-santaSame companies that insure Ukraine’s ships.
@@grahamstrouse1165 I did not know Russian State was doing this for Ukraine!
Thank you for taking the time to explain this to us
Thank you for this analysis. Absolutely fascinating! Hope the weather is kind.
Fantastic, thought provoking analysis, as always.
Thanks for taking the time out to give us your thoughts on the grain deal issue, Anders! As always very thought provoking! Now enjoy the rest of your holidays and, hopefully, better weathr 🙂
The is a great analysis. I think you are really on to something and I think Ukraine is laying a big trap for Russia. Also Russia attacking wheat etc will help Ukraine with more western support.
Thank you for taking time out from your work to give us all such valuable insight!
It looks from holidays 😅
even more appropriated!
Really excellent 2nd & 3rd order analysis. Very original, too. Thank you for your effort in this.
I hope what your reading about the bridge is true as it would mean that the Ukranians are super clever strategists but I suspect they had intel that Russia was pulling out so they thought we might as well blow the bridge to hurt the Russians replenishment as well as Putin pride.
Thanks Anders! Lucid and logical as always.
Loving the backdrop! 👍
A question that hasn't been answered is why Turkey has shifted it's diplomatic stance to essentially full support for Ukraine. The return of the Azov officers was a major embarrassment for Moscow (even if it didn't get much attention in western media) and it caps off a series of moves that pushed turkey firmly into the western camp, and no longer a sort of neutral moderator between Kyiv and Moscow. I think Russia pulling out of the grain deal has as much to do with this as anything else.
I suspect Washington has been active behind the scenes giving Erdogan things he wants. Maybe Turkey has been promised a return to the F-35 program?
Lol "senile" Biden strikes again
@@nfrl-hs2ly Probably better than "loose cannon" Trump
@@nfrl-hs2ly and the American taxpayers are once again on the hook
Another way to look at it is that Turkey risked becoming a pariah if it continued its neutral/friendly stance towards Russia.
@@timpetersen11 Loose cannon is still a cannon... at least it isn't a half dead/unedible sack of meat. Russia attacked under Biden and not Trump for a reason ;)
💯. Wish I worded that myself.
Well said!
Danke, sehr interessant und aufschlussreich - wieder einmal!
Daumen hoch!!!
11:20 this is entirely speculation on my part based on observation: Nothing the AFU have done in regards to the Kerch bridge appears to have been coincidental. Ever. Thank you very much for sharing your analytic thoughts on this Anders, much appreciated as always.
Wasn't the first Kerch Bridge attack on Putins Birthday? Will be interesting to see what they have as a gift this year.
I think theyre trying to sink it. Carfull not to draw links that probably dont exist.
@@tjpld It was intended to afaik, but happened technically on the next day. But yes, AFU / SBU seems to be very deliberately use the bridge if they want it to be personal message
As always very informative analysis. Thx Anders!
Thank you Andres for showing a bigger picture 🙏 I feel a bit better😢❤
Very interesting, I agree, there’s something “off” with the latest chain of events.
Thank you, that was fascinating.
Another thought provoking presentation. Thank you!
Very interesting again Anders .Thank you.🇬🇧🇺🇦
Thank you for these videos, you bring out points that I would have never even thought about. Excellent job!
Dear Anders, once again a brilliant and very interesting analysis!
Hope you can stay longer away from your office with nice dry weather outside! Have a good rest!
look at the railway vloggers footage, plenty of UKR oil tankers and bulk grain wagons running up through Poland to the Baltic ports.
A very good analysis. Thanks!
Excellent analysis, thank you.
Always a pleasure to hear your insights, and I do want to emphasize the word "always". Your analysis never ceases to both surprise and convince me. :)
Fantastic commentary once again. Thank you so much for your insights!
Very interesting, sounds logical re timing of Kerch bridge
I certainly did not think of it like that, so I think this video just grew me a couple new neurons in my head. Thank you for the analysis!
Thanks! Appreciate your perspective.
Thanks. Glad to hear that.
Thank you Anders for sharing your thoughts with the grain deal … I didn’t think about that It was a trap set by Ukraine… could ships come by the Moldova coast line to access Odessa ports? Slava Ukraine
Great point of view. Definitely worth considering.
Thank you Anders for these very helpful insights. Your analysis makes excellent sense 🇺🇦
If this was in fact a ploy by Ukraine then they missed a trick by not moving more air defenses to Odessa
From where? Kyiv and other cities were bombed too and like Anders said hitting the grain isn´t the worst target for Ukraine.
@@landersen8173 I think 29 civilians were killed in Odessa, the cathedral was smashed and also the loading machinery. If they were trying to provoke Russia I think they would have added a bit more protection to the area 🤷♂️
@@ArmySigs I know. They would have added protection there if they had it but they don´t.
Great information and great thinking!!!👌
Kerch Bridge attack timing definitely deliberate. Masterstroke.
As usual, very deep and interesting considerations! Thanks a lot! Cheers from Tirana!
Dear Anders, thank you for this analysis - it is very interesting and informative. It’s also clear to me that you understand the Russian language very well. Best regards
Thank you, Anders. Excellent analysis, as usual.
Love your videos! Always very insightful. Enjoy your holiday!!
Excellent analysis 👍
Very interesting as always.
What's your perspective on the role of Turkey in the grain deal and potentially offering security to ships carrying grain in the Black Sea, and the developments in the naval balance of power between Turkey and Russia in the Black Sea in general?
Would love it if you would make a video on the second topic
Why would Turkey risk direct Turkish and NATO involvement in this war though? It makes little sense. Never interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake.
Turkey and the US said that they are not going to deploy their warships to protect cargo vessels. Russia is in an angry and pugnacious mood, and as much as the US may provide weapons to Ukraine, it is very careful to not cross certain lines.
@@MusicalMemeologyinteresting point. Until now I was not aware Russia did not have the power capabilities to enforce the blockade. It seems horrible to think about grain merchant ships being sunk. All the death and destruction Russia's insanity is causing.
@@MusicalMemeologybecause Turkey would profit from an escalation. They could force Russia to make concessions in the Türkise Syrian border.
@@dimbwemazala8978 Pootin has already shown that he is pluffing. NATO only has to raise and he will fold and take a flight out of Moscow.
Thanks for the update Anders.
Hav en god og forhåbentlig tør sommerferie.
Great video, thank you so much Anders!
russia's disregard for any other country or any human life, has once again been shown.
Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine! 💙💛
I hope you get a chance to relax. Cheers, thanks for taking the time to share yoyr analysis.
Check slide word "standars" instead of "standards". Great analysis.
Lots of good points, but I think you missed some important geographic context - namely territorial waters of the black sea; which might not occur to western viewers may tend to think of blockades like those of uboats in the Atlantic and how there's an extremely small amount of ocean that is Ukrainian along the supply routes. Russia can't exactly go sinking ships in Romanian or Turkish waters, for an example. (Not to mention that they're not at "war", it's merely a "special millitary operation", and it looks pretty bad to try to do a blockade when you haven't declared war)
The US blockaded Cuba and they weren't at war.
Dont think Russia is bothered about the definitions
@@petefrys545Well, there not being a legal war declared means for example that other countries can 'escort' (or just sail alongside) ukrainian cargo vessels without participating in any ongoing conflict. Meaning russia cant fire at them.
See turkeys assurance that they would protect grain vessels for example. Russia can do little about it other than declare war.
And then we have article 5
Well articulated. I believe you are spot on.
Videos like these are just essential for understanding what is really going on in the conflict.
Beautiful forest behind ya. Thanks for the video
A fine bush is always a welcome addition
Thanks, I didn't understand the timing of the Kerch Bridge bombing, this makes sense of it. In reality the end of the grain deal leaves Russia with a whole boat load of dilemmas. Also in practice the Russians were obstructing the flow of grain to the point the deal had become pointless for Ukraine.
Thank you, sir! As usual, food for thought!
great analysis, sir! please do this more often, world needs to know more about backgrounds and "behind the scene" bigger pictures.