We Are in a Post-Climate Change World | Aaron Bastani Meets Gaia Vince
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- čas přidán 14. 06. 2024
- The framing of the discussion around climate change mainly focuses on mitigating rising temperatures, de-carbonising and getting to 'net zero'.
Author and broadcaster Gaia Vince argues that, whilst these things are important, we need to focus on how we'll deal with what is already happening and will, in all likelihood, get much much worse: huge swathes of the planet becoming uninhabitable, with 2 billion people needing to find somewhere new to live.
She argues the solution to this a drastic reframing of how we think about migration. She sat down with Aaron to talk wet bulb temperatures, demographic aging and the Japanese nappy market.
You can find Gaia's book here: www.penguin.co.uk/books/44420...
00:00 Intro
02:58 Sea Levels
12:40 The Post Climate-Change World
21:33 Green Infrastructure & Long Term Thinking
33:46 Wet Bulb Temperatures & Geo-Politics
43:25 Everything Is Migrating North
46:05 How Will Change Happen
54:30 How to combat an aging population
01:05:12 Reframing Migration
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The clean up of British rivers only happened when the palace of Westminster became unusable because of the pollution in the Thames.
Until Rishi-level rich people are affected personally, no major changes will happen.
True
Scotland would welcome people as our birth rate is so low and our death rate high. We will not get control of our immigration without Scottish Independence. So we will need to get on with this first.
Unless We MAKE IT HAPPEN Jonathan. I can't emphasise that enough. The latest Berkley Earth shows UK not looking too good, along with the rest of Western EU which is now on a catastrophic path, and aready at 2.4 to as much as 2.9º above 1850 let alone 1750. The latter places some regions already over 3º.
That's what happens when it is in private hands. You can't vote out a water company
Remember listening to a XR-related podcast featuring Theresa May just after she was PM, and she spoke about her skiiing destination being noticeably effected by climate change from how it used to be, and that compelled her to put the policies in place she did before she ended her term. Sickeningly juvenile.
Very little in this interview regarding our global obsession with economic growth. The growth imperative, or paradigm, is one of the root causes of the polycrisis within which we now find ourselves. On a finite planet we continue to believe that our species can continue to increase and that an expanding global population can consume at the per capita levels to which we in Western world have become accustomed.
Climate change is only a symptom of the underlying problem often termed 'overshoot'. We are steadily degrading our biosphere, depleting natural resources, polluting and heating both oceans and landmasses, and irrevocably altering climate patterns. All the while the mitigative and adaptive capacity of our civilization to counter the combined effects of overshoot are losing ground. We might very well be approaching the point when we are simply overwhelmed, financially and practically, by the sheer range and seriousness of the multiple crises confronting us.
Great conversation. I would love to see added into conversations like these the impact of military conflict on the climate. It has a huge impact and shouldn't be omitted.
The us military is apparently the biggest polluters.
I read somewhere the US military has a huge carbon footprint, like a country on its own..not ot mention all the pollution from mines , munitions and chemical dumps polluting soil and water tables . 🌍💚🌍
I'd add by saying the military, disproportionately US military, are the biggest polluters on earth when it comes to emissions alone.
@@mattliamjack3293 It is about the size of Portugal or Peru.
@@mattliamjack3293 And they're telling us not to fly?
The conversation is proceeding as though capitalism and consumerism don't exist.
They are as natural as the air we breathe.
the conversation is proceeding in abstract high school science textbook terms that puts people to sleep and offers no real understanding of the real threats we face. "Drinking water is at risk" does not help us understand anything. "Can cause terrible damage to property and livelihoods" is just abstract mealy-mouthed empty words... The speaker really needs to learn how to connect with audiences.
"An amazing statistic... the number of people displaced..." Uh do you realize the word "displaced" has almost zero impact on understanding? I'm sorry but this is just more of the kind of media and writing and "education" that is totally zzzzzzzz and does nothing to actually create understanding.
Yeah, she's hovering about reality. It's so much optimism that it's scary
Thank you for giving your guest this platform! These are all things I've been contemplating and warning people about for the past decade, but no one really talks about it on any media.
This perfect storm has been brewing for a very long time. The collective needs to wake up and deal with it!
But instead the people with the power to do something will only think short term as far as the next electoral cycle and roll back on current pledges due to cost. Inaction will cost significantly more of course but that's for another so-called leader to deal with.
We are the majority We have the power ! Change our greed to need and change the ability to reign over us through wealth .
The guest knows as much about climate science as my cat. Climate has always changed, our impact on it is minor.
@@terryo5672 the climate has changed gradually over significantly longer times periods than is happening currently, giving life time to adapt or go extinct. Human impact is accelerating these changes and once we cross certain tipping points, then climate collapse becomes inevitable. This doesn't mean that all life will end of course but mass extinctions, food insecurity, conflict over scarcer resources and mass migration will increase as more frequent and severe weather events become the norm. This is not some future prediction by the way, this is well underway and if you haven't noticed then I might respectfully suggest that you pay closer attention to global events.
@@kenevil23 you have clearly bought into the narrative. I am sorry to inform you that there is no evidence whatsoever of anything other than natural climate change. Please apply some critical thinking and if you are not a scientist, then try and read around or take advice from a range of independent technical sources. I have been on this planet for 6 decades and lived in several parts of the world and the weather has changed very little in that time.
As a new parent, it cannot be understated how difficult it is to have children in todays economic climate.
All this nonsense is to concentrate the world's assets in fewr hands and to get rid of people. It would be okay if it was a matrix scenario where the machines were really running the show but it is not it is a bunch of over-privileged eugenicists. After almost a century and a half their dreams are coming true.
We just had our kids stay at home and have families. It's a bit crowded but we make due. Best part is I get to snuggles with the grandkids daily for 5 minutes then send them on their way. Good luck with your journey.
And it will only get worse. One of the many reasons why I chose to not have kids.
@@j85grim4 Things will get a lot worse quicker, if well-educated people stop having babies. Previous generations had it much worse economically and socially, yet they reproduced and kept the torch alive.
Can confirm. Having a kid made sense pre covid so we did, but we would never have had one in this post Covid age. The social contract has been shredded.
People are struggling to keep a roof over their heads and put food in the cupboard, let alone afford to have children..
@@ZenMountaindw it’s gonna come and affect you too, boo. You’ll be surprised 🎉🎉🎉🎉
People have always struggled for food, shelter, and family. If this is point, what point do you want it to make?
There will sadly be a lot more people struggling with these issues if we don't tackle climate change.
It's also possible to talk about more than one issue at a time
@@rhbrandon1at a certain points in time we have moved forward towards less struggle more production to the point where my mom worked at a violin shop could afford shelter food and to go out to a concert and a resteraunt thereby providing for somone to make a living playing music and running a resteraunt... those tokens of exchange called money flowed around and provided for many people in a community whereby their only struggle was to get out of bed and go to work. Now...things are moving in a different direction. Whereby thise tokens of exchange are hoarded by very few and also created and also the production going on isn't to make a sewing machine that I can buy and then move on and start creating a product I can sell ..but creating something which will break so I have to constantly be buying shit sewing machines from a factory in China where their lives and pay are not allowing them to go to a concert and I'm not able to go to a concert cos I have no extra money and so the musician isn't able to make a living etc etc. When one man can have more exchange tokens than the population of the planet there comes an issue of how can we ever exchange to that man to fulfill the amount of ious he holds while we need to use ious everyday to just survive. Of course there has always bene struggle but the struggle of a non civilised society is a very individual struggle whereby if youre lucky you might be born strong enough to tend your crops and hunt a deer and support thise less strong than you and fight some equal to you for control of resources. If it were physical strength its very equal in what men can achieve. If its money its very different. The money elon musk has is like if he was born 9 meters tall with lazers for eyes and knives fir hands. Very difficult to even as millions fight against such elites. And if youre busy grubbing for wheat which is being taken from you and can't even build because his foot is on your feild taking a rent from you to even grow your wheat then youre kind of fucked as far as progress or civilization. Sure we all struggle ....but actually we have built a civilization which supports us..if that is exploited and destroyed we will be again cowering in caves with a big stick and to most people on this planet thats not an acceptable thing to just throw away the advantages of civilization and just go back to being an animal grubbing for worms or something. Like you may not see a difference between a rat scratching in the muck and a society with art and music and culture but a lot of people actually value that.
Without the government fully financing child rearing it's not possible for working classes to continue reproducing.
What I love about Aaron’s videos is how much they cheer me up.
😂
Hilarious
we have an exemple in arabic it says " me and the storm after me " which mean most care selfishly only about themselves.
It's the way we have been brought up .and the education system that promotes elitism and punishment .
*Après moi, le déluge.*
-King Louis XV
This is the second episode of this channel I've watched so far and I'm so glad I found it! So educational and detailed! Absolutely fantastic content!
OMG Aron you actually got Vince. This is so sick thank you so much. Great author on my only news channel being interviewed by one of my favourite presenters. I’m drilling for first term vet exams I’ve got no time all but I’ll be watching this. This is so heavy. Her book nomad century is emotional and she argues her case well. Safe!!!!!!
So sick omg I nearly spat out my soy latte
@@devincarter7434 use some up your back to knock some sense in yourself.
Stewart, this isn't a literature review of a story. This is your future and all life on the planet. Climate 101 never solved anything by itself. This is a roll our sleeves up think, organise and encourage Westminster to step aside moment. Corporate Westminster is killing us and everyone around the planet with the help of the US, EU, China, Russia, India and Brazil atm. Too much emotion is easily subverted to consumer spending on tosh and mush or wars. Getting emotional is ok provided it's focussed and concentrated on getting into a state we can move forward with common interest to survive and live healthy lives. Otherwise it looks as though we're very likely beyond our use by date
@@devincarter7434😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣
Good luck in your exams!
Difficult to imagine such dramatic changes we need happening when politics is so mediocre and backwards. Most likely we're headed to catastrophy.
Only if you have lost faith in your ability to thrive ,alongside your fellow human .Our system is unjust until l we decide to do it differently our debility to dominate over each other
Look to the East
Brilliant!
I really enjoy Aaron's choices of guests and books.
I'm extremely pessimistic when it comes to the potential for positive change (because the author of the future is currently the will and self-interest of the few, not mutual respect and the best outcome for all), but I really love to hear the well reasoned 'best thoughts' of the enthusiastic and clever, wherever their ideas fall on the political spectrum. (When you're bailing out your sinking boat, debating the colour of the bucket will sink you as surely as giving up.)
And I do like bathing in the reflected glow of someone else's practical optimism more than wallowing in my own woe.
Great interview Aaron, next you need to do one with Joseph Mertz. It is not that the Green left does not want to engage in any economic activity because it is all destructive, rather we need to choose which activities are worthwhile to use up the earths resources and which are not. Health care is worthwhile but is making fridge magnets necessary? Much of what we spend natures capital on is determined by advertising, which in turn funds most of our media that heavily influences our choices.
Yup, we waste a LOT of resources, matl. & Labor for so much worthless, disposable crap.
When you tell people what they can and can't have, we are effectively in a fascist state.
Actually fascism tells you what you should have and not have through propaganda, much in the same way as corporate advertising does. Real choice comes from being conscious about what you are doing, rather than someone else telling you what to do.
This lady is a brilliant person. A powerhouse of sense. One question: Have you factored in the AMOC collapse?
Very interesting conversation, albeit full of virtuous academic twaddle.
I think she, like everybody else , is only concerned as long as it doesn't infringe on her ability to " carry on regardless ".
Migration has different effects on you depending upon which class you are from. If you are working class you have to live, work, and compete for resources. If you are well qualified you can jet around the world choosing the best job for you, saying “I’m a citizen of the world “. Increases in population push the cost of labour down, mainly for working class people. It’s supply and demand.
You could argue though that certain sectors where we have major labour shortages would fall apart without immigration. of course this is a problem fundamentally of either not training enough people in those sectors or low retention rates because of the low pay and poor conditions. but if we are replacing the falling birth rates with migrants wouldnt we have had those same people regardless but as british nationals instead of foreign immigration.and you need in a service based economy more demand and productivity to increase growth.there is a direct correlation between increases in gdp and population growth. the main issue is redistribution of that wealth
You are correct except we have the demand and not the supply. An ever-decreasing birth rate and an increase in the non-working population are disastrous for the working classes and the middle classes. Same with housing. The fix is to tax the super-rich far more as they don't contribute nearly enough and have become richer than ever to the detriment of the rest of society.
If we’re serious about climate change and recognise the world has changed and is still changing, we really need to be challenging the idea that we need to maintain the population size as it is. It is capitalism which inhibits a smaller population from looking after our ageing population. Imagine a society where wealth wasn’t consistency siphoned off to the billionaires, but was used to improve technology to make production more efficient for the benefit of workers. The younger people then have more time to care for the ageing population and care work is a valued occupation. We need investment and work based on fulfilling needs not making profit for a tiny minority.
Have u not realised they don’t want to sort things out for us yet. The govt are a bunch of crisis actors
At last. A thoroughly informed, pragmatic analysis of immigration! Much appreciated Novara!
Knockers
Humanity always, always adapts better than it mitigates.
Like we did in the 1918 flu pandemics? The plagues that wiped out swathes of Europe in recent centuries?
We’ve never experienced fed anything like the global warming issue and you only have to look at the existing hate and spite towards immigrants to see that your comment is pretty superficial when compared to reality, given the mass movement of people that’s likely moving forward.
@@dombrandon3018 Evolution is all about adapting rather than mitigating. And adapting doesn't have to be 'nice' it just 'is' so it isn't superficial to say we adapt better than we mitigate - it's part of our DNA. Like all living things - adaption is fundamental to survival, not mitigation. Those people migrating? That's them adapting, so my comment is actually acknowledging that reality - we adapt better than we mitigate. We've had our chance to do the latter and we've failed so... now we adapt.
@@Rich_H_1972I don't agree nor disagree with your arguments, I just want to point out that evolution happens over really long periods of time. The pace at which global warming is moving there will be nowhere to hide.
@@Fluffyfeathrrr Totally agree with you; nowhere to hide, it will be messy and lots of people will likely die. There will be wars, etc caused by it too. We will adapt though, we always do - whether that ends civilisation as we know it, remains to be seen, but we will adapt to new (and worse or better) ways of life.
... until it doesn't.
When I was born, in 1958, Britain’s population was about 52 million, the World population about 3 billion, and it seems to me that number of consumers on the planet was fairly sustainable; but we kept being convinced, convincing ourselves really, that we needed more and more and more stuff we didn’t and don’t really need. And so it will probably continue, until something we can’t get a grip on occurs. Population decline is all a matter of where you are standing. People are spread pretty thinly across most American states, while the Philippines and Bangladesh are packed a bit tight. Migration - for education, a better standard of life, or just because the environment decided you should probably think about living somewhere else, is going to happen. I only hope we in the comfortable North have some common human empathy, and don’t exploit new arrivals like we’ve done so many, many times before.
We went along with it, but let's remember that businesses used the lessons of propaganda and marketing learnt in WW2 to convince us (and to hide and cover up climate science since the 70s)
It's like if 37.5% of global population are desperate for migrating up to the North honestly even if you were to indiscriminately commit genocide it wouldn't change anything. It really will be one of the first mass migrations in modern history
In 1958, of that 3 billion, 2 billion were consuming hardly anything.
TLDR: it's all China's fault for not keeping all their people desperately poor.
Next: we blame India or Africa.
Just don't look at SEA where I live, where we have already added 10x Britain's population to the world's load of consumers.
I would also be really wary of anyone pushing a “crisis” and trying to lower carbon as the culprit. HUMANS are the carbon global elites seek to reduce. There are too many of us. The “solutions” they propose will lead to complete disaster. None of them are implementable at this scale. Expect mass starvation, death by freezing with no heat and no way to travel. Expect none of these things to affect global elites in the slightest.
When it was 50 million in UK near all belonged to Britain today not so English not spoken in Blackpool its Polish only . So many Asians and blacks .Today Latvians 160000 of them live in Britain .Climate change is natures plan for protection. Man has nothing to do with it. Look at history when 1660 the Thames river froze over 20 feet deep . Bonfires and roast chestnuts sold on ice as people ice skated . 1700 it was so hot in summer people died of heat .It never ends .Britain is headed into an ice age again with lack of gulf stream and natures way .We cannot destroy earth we have tried with atom bombs wars and such .Nature is the changer of all things
"We need immigrants, desperately " just to run our bars and pick our crops (!) seems a pretty imperialistic attitude to me. Oh the dear old brits- a part from that- a very necessary conversation.
What a great discussion exploring the rarely-discussed finer details of issues which are usually in the public conscience for the wrong reasons. What a refreshing perspective
Great conversation and I agree that we should be preparing now for the changes that are undoubtedly coming and coming very quickly. The weakest link and our greatest threat is that there is no indication, in the UK and many other countries that our political leaders have begun to address these matters.
Can you please invite Dr. Richard D. Wolff on the show.
Blimey that was fascinating! The absolute interconnectedness of everything. Thank you both.
I'm confused by the argument that immigration is needed to increase birthrates. It seems reasonable to argue that an unstable climate with less resources and more uncertainty would benefit from a population collapse. Also, if you're worried about religious fundamentalism taking over the secular population isn't immigration adding to that inevitable outcome?
Not sure it's about immigration for boosting birth rates, but bringing in working age ppl to make up for children that were not born & raised.
Population collapse means economic collapse of the nation, with towns and cities depopulated, decline of infrastructure and institutions, many elderly and few working age, and even fewer children.
It's not the end of the nation, but it is a painful and difficult shrinking of national capability and declining economy.
Over generational timeframes, a stable population is necessary for a stable nation.
That's a loaded question: What will it be like in 2041 when his daughter is 18? According to an MIT study civilization will be collapsing due to resource depletion, which is backed up by humans using the equivalent of 1.7 Earths a year. Water tables are dropping, forests are being cut down and are burning from climate change, the nutrition level of food keeps declining as we continue to use the same land to grow crops. In the 1970's there was a slew of warnings about resource depletion, over population, climate change, drinking water depletion, which were all ignored. The world went to have 8 billion people and undeveloped countries started to become developed. Well, that speeds up all those depletions. As a species we act like the world has a lot more resources than it does. It's like buying a month's worth of groceries, but eating them like the month is only two weeks. Even if we get climate change under control we still have to figure out how to get nutrients back into the soil, water back into the water tables and lakes, how to get back all those forests, how to get back all the wild life. It's pretty simple - as a species we were warned in the 70's, it was ignored and now we're on a non-sustainable trajectory towards civilization collapse. Essentially humans are voracious. They want big families, they want cars, houses, jet setting, travelling, new cloths, new appliances, new furniture, new kitchens, new bathrooms, pets, you name it we're hard to satisfy, because once we have more, we want even more. For 8 billion people there's never enough of anything.
So very well explained, thank you Gaia.
Excellent discussion you two. Keep up the good work.
Really enjoyed this conversation, thank you.
Wonderful. The nominative determinism was a bonus. Please do more of these interviews.
Public transport, cycling and walking are the only medium and long term solutions. Electric cars are only a transitional solution. We can't even build HS, which is about rail capacity for freight and passengers More tidal and wind generated power, andt insulation, insulation and insulation. Very unique time - really stop building on flood planes aa well
Talking shite
Gaia - interesting name in this context.
*ERROR* at 46:00 Great Barrier Reef is in perfect condition - see last year inspection results published by Australian scientists!!!
Heat tolerant Acropora corals filled the gaps of less tolerant species.
All species have a limit.
Short term gains do not project a positive future.
Love this podcast,
Thanks a million for all info & updates.
Praing for change & our planet ❤️🙏🏼🌍
Nothing will change unless we completely overturn our current set of living arrangements including moving swiftly away from capitalism.
The chance of this happening without some massive catastrophe is zero to none. Once we experience a blue ocean event over the arctic the current system will disintegrate. Humans may be able to move to migrate to avoid inhospitable climates but plants will not cope. Food production will plummet.
Climate chaos is already triggering critical feedback loops which will take thousands of years to reset. If we're very lucky a few pockets may survive but I'm not optimistic.
Yeah it's hard to see the way of avoiding that.
All this adaptation stuff which presumes you can move 3 billion people in 4 decades while also dealing with a collapsing food system is completely and utterly delusional.
I agree nothing will happen. Established powers need to get onboard with it , ie they need to find a way to invest or make money from green initiatives and switch to that over fossil fuels! It wont happen until we have that shift but it needs to happen now and it won’t.
Also i mean real green initiatives and not the ones marketed to us- electric cars, biomass fuel, certain solar energies- all not green at all.
The amount electric cars is pushed alarms me.
Also get away from endless consumerism. Move economy back to where we get white good and TVs repaired. Not replacing everything over and over
Nothing will change with our current systems. We need a truly representative system of governance. Everyone should look into liquid democracy and figure out how we can implement versions of it. (I would write more, but I tend to get censored when I do: but my shorter, silly and even rude comments get to stay).
Agreed. If we could convince people that accumulating obscene wealth that you cannot possibly use is disgusting, we might stand a chance. Eat the rich.
@@michaelrchwe still need to do adaptation because the change has already started. We also need to get mitigation in place to stop it getting worse via the path we’re on. We need both and we have to move people away from suggested it is can be solely one or the other.
question for Gaia Vince: what is the optimum population size for the UK? 100 million? 100 trillion? Higher? Higher.
120 million by the year 2100.
I really needed to listen to this. Thank you for having this discussion.
@45:50 - I was recently in the Caribbean Leeward Islands, and was horrified at how all of the reefs are just graveyards now. Just 8 years ago, those in the BVIs were thriving. It's happening very fast.
Ouch! Thanks for the eyewitness account. 50% of coral gone since the 1950s.
1:21:00 Several countries have had far more than 20% of their population "replaced" by Europeans. Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand... Palestine... In fact, the reason people from so many different countries seek asylum in English-speaking countries, is that they've pre-learned the language, by way of *immigrants* having moved to _their_ countries, and *colonized* them. Or in some cases, stopping short of colonization, but perpetrating a hostile financial take-over of their industries. Or in some cases, popping 'round to violently take control over their resources.
Just a thought on "having more children". As a librarian in a public library (seeing change over 2 decades) I'm very worried about the young today. So many seem to have mental difficulties from low level autism, ADHD, anxiety, and tactile difficulties. These are not the grown-ups I would like to rely on in a decade or two. Truly, I actually think we are pretty much in deep doo-doo from far more than just weather. From toxins to microplastics' impact, children of today are not the kids of the 70s or 80s. Far more will need constant care and will not be able to work.
Yes , they are not brought up learning resilience. Just entitlement and lack of drive to work as they think others should look after them. We are in trouble now but in 20 years, big trouble.
Vaccines
@@xGeorgeMee That; foods and predatory capitalism which Aaron Bastardi endorses cuz having sold out to the same institutions of greed as the WEF's Agenda contributor, Gaia Vince, he wants to convince leftists to embrace its brutality by dressing up this stakeholder capitalist nirvana in Marxist/"communist" terms: a stateless, moneyless and classless society bathed in leisure and luxury.
Fake af "leftists" are just fake.
They will likely eat us.
@@sudenims5235if a system denies you access to the basic things such as housing/option to raise a family,sense of community/shared identity, honesty/transparency of it political/ruling class then what is point in working for that
acting as if it’s 100% moral failing on the part of the young makes you part of the problem..
In the previous two hundred years, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, human activity has released an equivalent volume of carbon into the atmosphere that took nature millions of years to sequest. I don't think that people understand that increases in carbon concentration in the atmosphere has an inertia when affecting average atmospheric temperature. Political rhetoric concerning mitigation is mostly a distraction from the truth that they are corporate captives and prioritize the profits of the fosil fuel industry. In Australia, we voted in a federal Labor government that promised to tackle the causes of climate change, yet since being in charge they have continued to approve new fossil fuel projects while our country still lacks emission standards for motor vehicles. I seriously suspect that we have already reached a tipping point, we just don't realize it yet because of carbon warming inertia. By the time we take this existential threat seriously, it will already be too late.
It's a global issue. Currently, fossil fuel subsidies are $7 trillion. Astonishingly UP $2 trillion from 2020! Our politicians are not working for us, they are working for big corporations.
If it's too late in your lifetime, it's already too late, man is helpless in this situation
The human species has experience much greater climate change. Then could ever happen now.. It's ironic that she is not more familiar.
With that
@@davidwestwater2219 Yes but why shoot yourself? This is human-caused climate change and is completely avoidable....
So you are saying it is too late to save civilization, whstever we do, and it may have already been too late for a long time.
That's not what they said. Kinda the opposite. The world's gonna change, and the entirety of human civilization is gonna move north ward. Gaia is emphasizing
- that this large scale human migration is inevitable
- it actually provides a great economic opportunity (if only humanity doesn't succumb to ethno nationalism)
I sat down and tried to calculate an estimate for the economic cost of sea level rise alone after a US republican congressman said that sustainable energy initiatives would cost trillions. I wanted to blow that out of the water and I was horrified by what I found.
Citing a fairly recent study, using the upper limit of its worst case scenario, roughly in line with completely blasting through emissions targets and not even trying, our descendents in the year 2300 could be facing up to 15 meters of rise. currently, 1/3rd of global gdp happens on our coast in 17 mega city regions. So at some point that level of productivity is going to go into relocating people and infrastructure, peacefully and organized or not. If thats the end result and these cities and their productivity are effectively lost, it's like we are presently in a -33% gdp per year until then. So we're literally working backwards. In almost 300 years, we will lose 1000 years of economic productivity, on the order of $8 quadrillion dollars in today's dollars. In a 15m rise, we lose 6% of global land area, including some of the most populated and productive airable land regions in the world.
She was comparing the 1920s and post WW1 and then not realizing they were 15 years away from WW2. Climate change in the worst case scenarios are civilization and history altering at least an order of magnitude beyond the world wars. It's like the 13th century of Mongol invasions and the 14th century of black plague and having foreknowledge of that and being able to prevent the worst of it.
We are currently on track for a 4.8 degree Celsius temperature rise by 2100. 3 degrees Celsius is enough to cause mass extinction including humans.
I think billions will die
Billions already have died. Humans aren’t the only ones that matter. We don’t really contribute all that much to the planet. We take and destroy.
2300!? 😂 like i told a student of mine, tell me what the world is going to look like in 2035..not 2050.
I think it’s silly to try and project beyond a decade or so with how fast things are moving. I honestly don’t even think we’re going to make it beyond this century.
People have this idea that we aren’t gonna start to really feel the effects of climate change until like 2100 or whatever. I’ve got news for you, this is coming waaay faster than that.
You are panicking over unreliable data produced by unreliable computer modelling and making ridiculous predictions. Calm down!
windrush generation were about 500k across 15 years. now we have 1miilion a year arriving. You cannot compare it.
Great! Thank you NM.
Thank you for being optimistic and realistic it's very refreshing.
I've never heard anyone point to the sea and say "that was my school".
Little mermaid?
Aquaman?
I have. There are vids about The East Coast
I'm an admirer of this series but I found this analysis rather weak and myopic, at least for the first half an hour, until the discussion turned to impacts on our food system and nature. The author said it herself but appeared not to fully grasp or communicate its implications - climate change is indeed a threat multiplier, and coupled with non-linear feedbacks and rapidly worsening environmental impacts, this is a recipe for a near term collapse of our life support systems- our water supplies and our food production - in many parts of the world. In this context, suggesting that there might be some benefits to the transformations imposed on our lives over the coming decades is frankly naive.
Amen.
i am a single parent aged 81. Would have loved a larger family if our society had approved and supported such a choice.
We are in overloaded, freight train, headed down a steep mountain with no brakes in the engineer is stepping on the throttle. I think that about sums it up.
Why?
People live in Death Valley and Arizona and those are +20 or more hotter then the rest of world.
Ocean rise won’t happen while we are asleep so we won’t drown. So build damns and manage the Fresh water ..
CO2 level rise.. yes our trees and crops love it.. .
Famine caused by lack of water? Well we are in luck we have dams in lots of locations full of fresh water…
Overload fine going down not up
No brakes fine no one in front and will stop when go back up since in the mountains.
Engineer not needed and can be nulled there are built in stoppers on train tracks if needed and those can be activated automatically by speed or central office or engineer in back or controller in front.
It’s a choice to believe …..
33:25 course you need to mine things….where do you think all the aluminium, zinc, nickel, cobalt extra required for electric cars comes from? They’re strip mined and shipped around the world several times before you drive off in your new Tesla. Same goes with solar panels. Yes they don’t produce any emissions in their use, but again the aluminium, silicone etc that they’re made of needs to be mined and shipped round the world. Yes 35.9% of U.K. power comes from “renewable” energy sources but whilst that does mean wind and solar, it also includes hydroelectric, nuclear (relatively one of the best and cleanest forms of energy production that can actually meet our demands) and biomass- which is just basically burning stuff other than fossil fuels which is considered slightly better than fossil fuels even though you have to burn more of it than coal or oil to get the equivalent energy output. 🤔🤷😂
Exactly, electric cars are such a scam. Just like our common misconception that we have been recycling most of our plastic last 20 years. We need to destroy capitalism, that has led the world for the last 4-5 centuries, while at the same time dealing with more people then ever before, while industrial food production goes down.. And emergency wheather events happen every other day.. Billions dead, capitalism dead, but maybe one, two billion to survive in still technologically advanced society would be best we could hope.. But most important is talking time scales.. They still talk like this might happen in 100-200 years while talking about a book called post climate change.
Now I understand the levity, they are both parents, ofcourse they need to think in positive ways.. This is one of two reasons why I will probably not reproduce. It would be too cruel.
Isn't it strange how climate change does not apply when it comes to there robots
That's because there is no climate change its global warming and that's natural
But it does. I've seen or read about that multiple places over the years. Literally, go to your favorite search engine and search for something like energy consumption and deep learning and you'll likely find articles about its problems and attempts at mitigating those problems. (I know you wrote "robots", but I ventured to guess you didn't use this word in a narrow sense).
@WhoisTheOtherVindAzz but they are pushing ahead building robotsdespite on the over hand telling us we desperately need to not use energy or even eat most foods its so desperate cows have to no longer exist its that desperate
Very good discussion. Thank you. KT from USA NJ.
Illuminating conversation, thank you. Would have liked to have heard more on the global south and population, and on waste disposal - particularly military waste
My fear is that there will be immigration but none of the progressive policy to facilitate it.
My fear is that there will be immigration, accompanied by progressive policy facilitating our replacement.
@@dhj1182I mean maybe get on with times then? Don't regress and you'd be irreplaceable! ;)
A load of left wing rubbish.
It’s already here .
@sha29i they're calling for jihad in London. But sure... I guess they're all chill....
regarding trauma, yes. perhaps we are now in the similar place to people after ww1.
She is very creative and inventive. I'm sure she will sell lots of books.
The climate changes are part of the world since it’s creation.
We are in a warming episode rather than a cold episode AKA, ice age.
We do need to learn how to live within this new Earth time. Warmth, rain, mud and other disturbances will impact us and we need to just move forward, striving for new ideas and theologies to remedy these problems.
What happens to demands on nature/natural resources as the tropical areas become uninhabitable and we have mass migration to northern areas?
Aren't we already living unsustainably in ecological overshoot and a biodiversity crisis?
it's gonna be nasty. expect rising prices of food, rations, if we're lucky, bread lines.
@@soggharthadoom and gloom 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤡
There is no crisis ffs
@@RevGary "There is no asteroid coming!", the dinosaur said.
@@cryoraptora303tm2 did you dream that up son? Another human theory that wasn't observed or tested hence isn't scientific merely a belief system 🤣
We need a economic system not reliant on growth?
Yep.
What a fantastic guest! I really like her commonsense perspective and politics. We so desperately need people like this being central to policy-development and governance.
The planet is fine it is one of many in our solar system. What people worry about is themselves. To slow it down, if you think it will affect you, stop wars and stop being greedy.
The outdate Nation model is gonna be a major pain the ass as global migration north word accellerates
I actually think that Britain, having already to a certain degree a national identity that is culture-based and not heritage based, will have it a bit easier than nation-states like Hungary, where the national identity is still quite strongly linked to a person's ethnicity.
Great interview Aaron. Thank you Novara. You're all amazing❤
I love this take. Just grabbed Nomad Century on Audible!
Thank s Windrush, for solving Britain's chronic and disastrous bus conductor future.
Historian Britain. Elderly population. Super rich and poor . Owning nothing. Immigration is good but we need intergration with sufficient support in society. If out government is not spending money on these things it won’t work.
Paul Beckwith calculates that we're already at 1.5 degrees folks. As I said : Time to panic
1C+ guarantees global collapse. We can see this clearly now. At 3C it's an extinction game for sure.
Panic is the worst you can possibly do when solving problems.
Great interview. Good to get our eyes open. What she describes as the only habitable parts of the world in the future was described by James Lovelock over two decades ago. I recommend reading his book “The Revenge of Gaia. “ May he rest in peace.
According to Google: In 2022, the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) reported the highest levels of coral cover across two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in over 36 years. The great barrier reef is growing back, so i dont understand?
"The great barrier reef is growing back, so i dont understand?"
Globally, 50% of the world's coral has been lost since the 1950s. The GBR "rebound" is one of those examples of people being misled by misleading statistics and terminology. Vast swaths of very large, decades-olds, more biodiverse, more resilient-to-storms, and more-resilient to Crown-of-Thorns coral were killed off due to repeated mass bleaching events made more likely/inevitable and more intense due to man-made global warming. Then, like crabgrass quickly filling in your lawn after you fail to take care of it in late summer, very small, young, less biodiverse, less resilient-to-storms, and less-resilient to Crown-of-Thorns species of coral filled in those areas. This less biodiverse GBR also has fewer "ecosystem benefits" for marine life and even less benefits for tourism (I don't know about you, but I'd rather look at tall biodiverse forests of corals while snorkeling/scuba diving rather than a shallow mat of the same species). So unfortunately, even that supposed success story is a big step backwards for the Great Barrier Reef and marine life.
Heat tolerant species grew back proilfically as less heat tolerant species died off. All species have a limit. It's only time that will reveal the true state of the reefs globally.
Half the global coral had been lost since the 1950s, and that was before massive coral bleaching in the Caribbean this past summer. Next, as the other poster noted, "coral cover" can be incredibly misleading. What the recent mass bleaching events on the GBR have done is killed off massive, decades-old and more biodiverse corals and replaced them with a blanket of tiny corals of a species that is less resistant to storms, to future bleaching events, and to Crown of Thorns--and has significantly reduced the "ecosystem services" the reef can offer to other species.
So, don't be misled by misleadingly narrow statistics: The GBR has taken multiple massive steps backwards through these mass bleaching events.
Interestingly, the term "sea ice cover" can also be very misleading because a square mile of ocean is counted as having "sea ice cover" if it is 100% covered with a solid slab of ice 6 feet thick but it is also counted as having "sea ice cover" if it is 84% open water and only has 16% of it covered with foot-thick slushy ice.
I live in Japan and us true, is easier to be naturalized in Japan than before. Most of westerns don't do it because of the language/cultural barriers.
Also because Japan does not allow dual citizenship, and they would be required to renounce their Western nationality.
The 80s economy was not good recession after recession.
Like now!
Those recessions were not debt loaded. People just couldn’t afford new things. Now people can’t afford money they have already used, this is the problem.
@aaron bastani In the wider context of planetary boundaries, as defined by the Potsdam Institute, surely it's quite valid to question unbridled 'extractivism'. Climate Change is only one of six boundaries being crossed currently and there are tipping points associated with the others. The planet's systems only have the capacity to regenerate up to certain limits regardless of techno-optimism.
We could have fewer people, it will hard but worth not being erased from history
Britain is building and opening new coal power stations right?
No but theres one new coal mine.
We have these large populations that can't easily move but large populations can easily move into western countries and cultures😂. I don't see them moving into India China or Japan. If it's too hot in Northern Africa why don't these people move South?
Into the Southern ocean?
South where? Are you just trolling?
Some southward movement possible, but there's WAY more landmass N than S.
Gaia Vince "Parents do a very important job for society". A job that's not recognised as a Job by the Duopoly UK political parties. E.g., in single parent households, the carer is expected to work 38 hours or any social welfare is "sanctioned". This includes if the parent is homeschooling. So, 38 hours per week paid employment that does not include any of the time to look after the children, clean the house, cook meals, etc.
+1 for a basic universal income
Aaron Bastani "I can foresee a world in the 23rd century when they look back [religious fundamentalists] and think, "wow", what were they thinking".
Pay attention Aaron. Do you think these religious fundamentalist social ingroups will have the knowledge to mitigate an ecological crisis that will limit population numbers?
Gaia Vince "Obviously I'm no Mystic Meg" He-he (good reply). Seriously, Aaron should pay more attention to the experts.
Thanks Novara, very good. Re the title: Mmmm some problems aren't there!?? What will 3º C increase look like by 2060 or so onwards? Why Fixate on sea-level rise? The IPCC isn't even middle of the road on this from my reading, it errs as always on the conservative. Middle of the road would be 2 metres by 2100, whereas prudent would be 2.5 to 3 metres. There's a need to talk in terms of energy. Currently humanity produces 19 terawatts globally, it needs to be 5 to 10 terawatts maximum. Talk in terms of the EEI- Earth Energy Imbalance. Too much loose talk doesn't help. And we must wipe all debt, it a human control mechanism and a killer. Can we adapt in the UK? Not in the UK with the present administration or mindset of much of the public. What happened to recycle, re-use, repurpose?. I suggest and recommend Novara host a discussion with Gaia Vince, Roger Hallam, Andreas Malm, Kevin Anderson, Hilda Flavia Nakabuye , Luisa Neubauer, Bill Ripple or a mixture of same or similar. Novara could play an important role in bringing key voices both young and middle aged to the public in a positive way. Thanks
If you liked The Ministry for the Future if would be a good idea to pay attention to the resolution of the climate crisis presented in the novel. It’s Carbon Quantitative Easing that funds the new world of climate mitigation. Introduced as the “Chen plan” in Chapter 42 there is a real world character -Dr Delton Chen -that has been publishing a new economic theory that is complete enough to manage the current crisis. His recent presentation to The Bank of England is a must listen to!
The massive flaw in the book, which I otherwise enjoyed, was the ridiculous floating of cryptocurrency as a vehicle for the carbon credits. He completely ignored the fact that power consumption of crypto gets progressively worse as more people try to use it, rendering it worse for the planet than regular money. The whole device just threw me out of the narrative.
In the book it was clear that carbon coin shouldn’t be confused with a crypto. Especially to Bitcoin. The main point was to get the backing of central banks to maintain the price. The result would be a derisked investment.
Relative to the birthrate population increase and religiosity, not matter what, as you have pointed out, these people will have to be fed! Between heat rise, soil depletion, and decline in fresh water, food production will decline!
People in the 60's we're absolutely convinced that a world population far below what it is now would have mass starvation, and people would be in dire straits, yeah, it's better than it ever has been. Don't listen to the doomsayers.
I am reminded of the work of James Lovelock and how his view on climate migration matches up with Gaia Vince's opinion here. Funny that his most famous work was titled The Gaia Hypothesis.
Actually the book was titled Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth.
Yes
What we know is that if the trend had continued meaning a greater reduction in CO2 as prior to human activity plant life on Earth would be reduced even causing die offs. What we are experiencing now is vegetation around the world flourishing. If sea level rises and land is flooded people can move away to where they can now grow crops when before they couldn't.
Don't worry, I am in many policy groups of the green left and an extraction tax is being figured out but many of us are skeptical
Live in a Step Van work truck. Have a solar panel and LEDs
Park near work, don't drive and don't pay rent. Be your own mechanic. Stay organized. Don't depend on the government. Their job is to keep you spending and consuming. It's up to the people to consume less. Get a step van for each child too.
If any one is confused by why the US is not doing more to move from a using fossil fuels to renewables…are entire economy is base on the consumption of fossil fuels…my guess is the fossil fuel industries spend more money on keeping it that way then renewable produce in electrical value.
Please don’t let your daughter watch this she won’t forgive you mate. Sorry.
No, no, no back to any religion, dont make us go backwards.
Thanks for pointing out the ovi
About air pollution, sounds like the thought is that once we all have EVs it'll be so much better. Will there also be no more forest to burn?
This conversation is 30 years too late. We are or will be at 2 Degrees C. by 2028. We are in an irreversible Global Warming . Can't stop the Tipping points because an additional 2 Degrees C is already Baked into the system regardless of what you do. We are at or close to 2 Degrees C and be at 3 Degrees C by 2030-2040.
The world is not the 80s the politicians are 😂🤣 I liked this video Novara Media yes!!!!👍😅
Fabulous❤
It almost seems like destiny that someone named Gaia would become a defender of the planet.
Name one time where chaos didn't lead to misery🎉 just one
WW2. Led to the NHS. The Black Death of 1348. Led to social mobility and greater peasant rights. Covid 19. Led to better work / life balance. The big bang. Led to humans.
@@hmq9052 lol, I can hardly wait for Pandemic X
You really need to stop being so triggered. That's at least five separate comments I've seen now.
Punk Rock music 😊
@@BrianMarcus-nz7cs punk is misery....
2070? I don't know if we'll survive the next couple of years. Collapse is imminent.
Oh my God, we're all gonna die!!!
aller au paradis devrait être un souhait de tout honnête homme.
@@jonathanrossfaber3988 Yes. It happens to the best of 'em.
I hope so. I mean I don't wish anyone harm but if our civilization is going down, I wanna be there when it happens.
@@marcobsomer5574What about women?
Eye opening
Great line, "no one asked where I can get a Hedge Fund Manager"! Spot on
Aaron likes Tik Tok and thinks in terms of Netflix episodes. A sad victim of the internet age.