Iron Ore Commodity Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Iron Ore Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Function - Counter-trend
Mode - Corrective for 2
Structure - Impulse for wave (A)
Position - Wave 3 of (A)
Direction - Wave 3 of (A) is still in play
Details - After breaking below 102, we have resorted to this outlook confirming wave X (circled) has finished at 143.5 and the price is down with an impulse or a 3-wave that could reach 60-70.
As an Elliott Wave analyst, the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index offers crucial insights into the iron ore market, serving as a key benchmark for traders, miners, and steelmakers involved in contract settlements and price risk management. The index's performance is based on actual transactions in the iron ore spot market, providing a reliable reflection of market conditions.
Overview and Long-Term Analysis
The index peaked in May 2021, reaching an all-time high of around $233 per dry metric ton, driven by strong demand from China and supply constraints among major producers. Since then, the index has experienced a significant decline, dropping by over 68% to $73 by October 2022. However, it saw a notable recovery, climbing to $143.5 by December 2023. Despite this recovery, the index has entered a negative phase, with a resurgence beginning in April 2024 now being wiped out, potentially setting the commodity towards the lows seen in 2022.
In the long-term analysis, the index started a bearish corrective phase in May 2021, forming a primary wave W-X-Y (circled). The primary degree waves W and X (circled) ended at the October 2022 low and January 2024 high, respectively. Wave Y (circled) commenced from the January 2024 high of 143.5 and is expected to develop into a 3-wave structure consisting of intermediate degree waves (A)-(B)-(C). Currently, the price is in wave 3 of (A), which could continue to 45, indicating a 56% decline from the current price. This projection suggests a bearish long-term outlook for the index based on the Elliott Wave theory.
H4 Chart Analysis
On the H4 chart, wave 3 began at 122.9 and is currently unfolding its 3rd sub-wave, wave iii (circled) of 3. A closer examination reveals the price is in wave (iii) of iii (circled) of 3. In the immediate term, wave (iii) could reach 85 before a corrective bounce for wave (iv) and a further decline.
Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
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