I Was Wrong On PYPL / It Is A 3X to 5X Value Stock To BUY NOW! (risk and reward investing)
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- čas přidán 22. 08. 2024
- Many say I am wrong on Paypal stock PYPL. Here is a risk and reward investing discussion!
Old PYPL video • PAYPAL Stock Analysis ...
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Previous Paypal Stock Video: czcams.com/video/JdmDMJXvXiI/video.html
Both video are good. As mentioned before your approach in this channel is really great. I have a long position on PayPal and my perspective will remain long but I loved your previous video, really a good analysis. Only time will show who was right😊
Could you do an analysis about spam systems please!
@@elishanana4469 what do you mean?
@@BlackRaven120895trying to pick winners without listening carefully to those who disagree with ones picks is madness
@@BlackRaven120895it amazes me how many people seem to try to pick without listening carefully to those who disagree with their picks
Don't worry about all the criticism Sven. You make great content. PayPal is in a transition year and they are changing their revenue mix that could possibly put margins under pressure over a long time. Being through many transition periods in my time in corporate there is no guarantee that they work out. For me this stock could 3x but management needs to prove themselves first over the next year.
that summarises it!
I agree, just underlying one thing: it could (easily) NOT work out and this could easily turn in a meat grinder for investors.
The problem is that many (many) people simply invested based on price and the comeback stories you can find everywhere here in CZcams - as polarized content creators (whose incentive is to gather views, let’s keep this in mind) pushed one story or the other.
Truth is what Sven said: nobody is saying that there’s risk in this investment and that likely there are better ways to deploy money on the market. No reason to take it personally, he is simply speaking truth. But again.. the problem are the people currently being invested, already taking a hit, who bought on partial analysis from non professional content creators masked as “value investors”.
@@jnardiello You have to listen what management tells analysts. Chriss said, Q2 numbers are already ahead of expectations. ;-)
Chris is already a proven manager, he did an outstanding job at INTU, and he started just as well here in his first quarters. I like management and I think the ad business is usually low risk and high margins, this story seems to me like it's in the correct direction and I'm willing to put a portion of my portfolio behind it at this valuation.
Thanks SVEN I just put my entire life savings on PYPL 🙏
😂😂😂
Very wise
Lol definitely a troll.😂
I don’t know what to buy should I put everything I have in it all I hear is PayPal PayPal
Never ever do such a thing!! 😅
But if you start buying when PYPL reaches 150$, what profit do you hope to make? This sounds like momentum investing, not value investing.
You do not need to wait for it to be 150 but you need to see improvement in the company performance. Otherwise it is a gamble and value investing. Value investing is when a company has value which has not been recognised by the stock market. PYPL's value is not higher than the current stock price.
Don't want to comment on PYPL. I am waiting for updates about European companies you publicly endorsed as good businesses like 2yrs ago. Such as Acomo, Ahold or Rubis. Or ADM. Or anything to see if your process of picking deeply undervalued stocks and hoping they will return to full valuation actually works. Or retro update on sale of positions you sold from your education portfolio as risky. Such as sale of AMZN completely ignoring your original thesis due to being scared of macro. Don't get me wrong I am interested joining your research platform as one of my sources, but so far from your public research I've only seen a very little evidence that your process actually works.
I think Sven makes good points but to me he also seems to try too hard cause he wants to differentiate from the popular stocks. And in doing so, he is inconsistent in things like the management. For instance, how can you be more sure of the management qualifications of a business in a country like Indonesia versus the management of PYPL, there's not much info on the first one, but we have plenty of info about Alex Chris and his performance on INTU over the years. I appreciate Sven and take notes on his arguments but I have my own thinking and everyone should do what they believe it's best for them.
H
I invested in PayPal. That's the beautiful thing about investing, not everyone will think alike😊 Appreciate what you do!
I don't think Sven did a proper research, he just said they are losing market share which is not true. The whole digital payment is supposed to grow at 12% CARG and it is undeniable that a Forward PE of 12,6 is low. The company went down because they stop innovating and old management. Of course it can go lower, but it is all about risk reward... It is not a dying company if it is still growing its QoQ active accounts and increasing their revenue and net profit YoY... Just saying
Dr. Carlin’s dry humour is the best.
I hope you have a nice summer & thank-you for your channel!
Its not a turn around, the earmings are growing, and its not a cyclical. This video is based on sentiment and not on facts. Disappointed
thanks for sharing!
Lol. Why is PayPal a turnaround? It is still growing. Just growing less. How many companies can grow forever? A turnaround company is like Nike with revenue decline.
You should stop talking about PayPal indeed. Just let time do the talking. Review this after 1 year or something. Stick to your circle of competence
the core business isn't really growing
@Value-Investing who cares if the core business isn't growing while they own other businesses that do grow? It's about profit dude not core business....
I must say your videos are confusing to me oftentimes. Your titles really are no clear indicator of what to expect. The title here say one thing but your videos are always it can go up or down, too risky, not for me. So why chose this title? Why upload a video at all if there is no real new info? Why say so much and communicate so little? Not really on point.
You dont really know Sven yet. The best YT channel around.
keep in mind this is CZcams / I am here to entertain and explain the risk and reward! For on point things, just go to my research platform!
@@javiervazquez9591 im following him for years frankly. But I don’t think we’re fully compatible of how we communicate and unpack information. Nevertheless, it’s one of the better channels because not focused on hype.
His channel sucks, that’s why
Sven, some people can't handle opinions that they don't agree with. Stay the course, your ability to say the unpopular is what makes your channel one of the best
4:44 When a company like PYPL is far down and staying down, yes, it may look like a value opportunity. But there are some questions that must be asked.
Why is it down? What has changed to cause it to rise in the near future?
If not the near future, then when? How long am I willing to wait while my capital sits idle?
I am really enjoying your free content even I am not fundamental investor. Thank you very much!
Happy to hear that!
Such sensitive feelings. When people suggest Sven has nit thoriughly researched an issue (they are usually right mind u. He even admits it 💁) he takes it as a personal attack. Such a prima donna. Sheesh! Get over yourself already.
Thanks for commenting, helps the algorithm and everything :-)
At first, I was like say what? Then, I was like oh...nicely played!
hehe
I don't get the heated reactions. If i invest in Paypal it's MY investment. I appreciate your view on investments, but it's still MY investment. Shouldn't matter if you like it.
Thanks for the video Sven! 😊
Good video, there will always be people complaining if you don't like the stocks they own
It's weird, I own PayPal but I couldn't careless who likes or loaves it. I appreciate Sven's analysis an perspective and I like to hear the bear cases for my stocks as it keeps me on my toes. Bottom line is I don't get why people waste their energy trying to convince others that their wrong, if you're right then your investment will reflect that at some point.
This was annoying, some kind of warning in the title that it was moody satire would have been helpful.
sorry :-(
There is a new breed of retail investors who loves a declining business that tries to buy itself out of existence.
I finally made it into a video!!! I'm famous, mom!
But for real, I don't understand why it's so hard for people to realize that if you have a better investment at hand, why would you buy some risky stock? People are just dreaming of becomming a billionaire because some stock goes 10000x. It might happen but it probably won't
I sense the sarcasm is strong with this one.
:-) just explaining!
And why billionaire investors are selling NVDIA and buy PYPL ?? Do you think you know better than these billionaire Investors ??
I don't try to know better than them, I try to know what is best for me!
Again click bait video. Guys like this love to buy stocks when they are super high...like alibaba at $300. Listen to this guy and lose all your money. Good luck.
I don't know what problem you have with me:-( But anyway, thanks for commenting and supporting the channel!
what about alibaba, suprrinvestors supposedly are buying this last 6 months.
politics is the issue. lost a lot on that falling knife. hoping for the turnaround to materialise in next 5 years.
just hoping it doesn't go to 0.
Really, superinvestors are buying it?
@@nataliam895 supposedly. one video said so. but who knows. maybe they manipulating retail traders. they do that often. market manipulation by super traders is huge. cathie woods is one big pump and dump scam artist imo.
@@nataliam895some, not many
Alibaba is still Alibaba!
@@Value-Investing which means?
As in poker, making the correct call (for stock: based on your own criteria) is more important than being right or wrong on any individual stock. Over time, making correct calls will result in success.
of course!
You just keep doing you my guy ! Don't listen to the massa as they are usually on the wrong track. When i buy a stock it is because i like the company, not the groupies behind it. I have used paypal for a few years now and i like it. Same with coinbase.
Sven, some of these people are haters, some use reason. Only time will tell.. I'm not sure what is wrong with some of these guys, you give solid reasons for your opinion, before, and now, so don't take criticism to heart. We appreciate your value investing perspective. PayPal may not have as many fleas as some of the other technology stocks, but it does have some fleas.
it is always nice to see that there are many kinds of people, I focus on those that appreciate!
Sven don't worry about criticism. Everyone has to the their own analysis. Something risky for you can be not risky for other investors.
It is not about been right or wrong. There are many oportunities and people must buy what is coherent with their investment journey. Keep up with your analysis.
Thanks!
Nice defense! 👍 That Buffett letter is gold, but other companies are not as picky. I'm fairly sure PayPal is already an acquisition target at $60 billion, but the potential acquirers are very limited (regulation and access to capital). I think primary motivations for acquisition would be at least in scaling and in the brand. Personally, I'm not invested.
with 60 billion you can do a lot...
The questions I asked myself that convinced me to remove the position:
does Paypal have a moat? No
Is it growing? No
Is it in a competitive environment? Yes (apple pay, revolut, wise, etc)
Do i use PayPal or its competitors? I prefer the competitors.
Sorry, but except financials, PayPal is unattractive/risky for me.
thanks for sharing!
I own a medium size position in Paypal, bought around 60. Thank you Sven, you are the only one signalling potential red flags. I will hold my position but I will pay more attention to these points from now on.
Somehow, the market looks efficient with paypal. You are showing good reasons for PYPL having a PE of 15 instead of 30.
Thanks for the video Sven.
With all the noticable interesting investments now days, will you consider making a video about portfolio management theory?
Just buy the low risk, high returns compounders:-)
Other than muh competition you are not giving a single argument why the company should be facing a decline rather than a slowdown. It's the global market leader with huge market share.
The thing about Sven, and any other value investors, is what Buffet said: He doesn't need to have an opinion on ALL the companies, he doesn't need to bet in all the companies.
He can miss 100 10x companies, but if he hits a couple and he doesn't lose money, he will be rich anyway.
I personally invested 1k in Paypal, just to be able to say that I did. If I get 3k that is great, if I lose 200, then I am fine with that.
Also when you look to invest in a company, the most useful data are the negative opinions. If there is literally nothing wrong with the company, why is not everybody buying it and why is it not a 10T company? Someone telling you the risks of your investment for free is a great gift.
He talked positively about lithium 6 months ago. Stocks paying no dividend, prices are now down 60%.
I talked positively about lithium 6 months ago??? Here is the video: czcams.com/video/6XvJMFPHiJk/video.html
@@Value-Investing Yes, you did. You said Livent was a good buy before merger.
Great job!! I like your integrity. It is never too late to invest in an unproven turnaround story and just because the good news is already out it doesn't mean it is too late to invest. Thus, it's never too late to get into PYPL until its management can prove its turnaround plan is working. 'It always pitch black before darkness' - Peter Lynch.
Sven, I watched both the videos. I like this video where you explain about your way of looking at Risk & Reward investing - this was helpful to me personally. And I also liked the way you handled the comments - looking at them through analysis perspective.
happy to hear that!
This analysis and investment thesis is sound, thank you Sven. Paypal is a watch and see for me as well. They were the first of their kind, but really laid an egg in keeping share and continuing growth. It seems like everyone's answer to growth is to add advertising.
Thanks for commenting!
great transparency Sven, PYPL has lost market share. I simply dont see how earnings growth can accelerate to move the stock higher and maintain any kind of consistent growth rate like in the past. Please do MA or V review..............I also like the sarcasm Cheers
Thanks for sharing!
Hi Sven -😂whatever happened to your DCF analysis spreadsheets? You used to harp on the fact that a company's fair value was the present value of all future cash flows. Now your analysis seems more subjective. Why dont you bring back your DCF estimate at the end of your discussion to enforce your thesis. Still enjoy your work but miss the numbers! Thanks.
good point, but that spreadsheet fixes things too much while things are much more flexible in real life. I don't think any of the projections developed linearly over the years.
Sven just know I might make jokester comments about you buying Nigerian nickel mines but you’re still my favorite channel
Political stability materializing would send that region 📈
I'm not a creator but I have to think keeping your nose out of the comment section is the best thing for your mental health.
actually, if you are a creator it is best to listen, and do content for the truly valuable viewers!
I have been swing trading PYPL around mid 50s and mid 60s for the last year. Back in for another swing trade, but I agree with Sven that it is a show me company given all the competition in the fintech space. I might double up at 50 then swing out of most of my position again mid 60s and hold my free shares for the long run. If it drops again then repeat and increase free shares.
You don't know it won’t grow. It has been growing.
thanks for sharing!
Don’t change. I’m holding pypl but I want greater margin of safety simply from your video and that’s never a bad thing.
thanks! Will never change!
PYPL is hardly contrarian. Many value investors think it I a good buy. I think they are underestimating the competition.
I don't know strong competition outside US. Paypal is a worldwide leader. Bearish sentiment is good for the stock price.
Can you accurately tell what are the key differences between PayPal, square or Stripe?
To understand competition you must first understand how the value each ones provide to customers differs.
Primary issue with a company like Paypal(previously invested in it) is that its model is a very messy for something that should be clear cut, as well as the extremely saturated market conditions ahead. That's not to say it CANNOT boom again but it's very unlikely without a cycle like COVID again.
Thanks for sharing
It’s the saturation scaring me
Someone convince me that they can monetize their users more without losing users
Happy to have options as the consumer.
I’ll stick to investing in oligopoly.
Good job Sven, value investing is a long term game and your point of view is well understood. Loved your video about First Pacific Co Ltd btw.
Glad you liked it!
What we do know is that PayPal is a commodity business with unlimited competition . There is no “Franchise” here like Visa or Mastercard.
I love how Sven made a clickbait title of the video but in the video he says the complete opposite xD
Sat in this for a year waiting while my capital could have been deployed to a better investment. Never again. Like you said, there is no indication that it will turnaround. Let it prove itself before entering long. Great video
It would be a perfect target for Amazon or anyone who wants to buy a huge consumer base.
thanks for sharing!
Doesn’t convince those who are primarily worried that value per customer will decrease given the higher and rising levels of competition
Too many platforms where I can be charged almost nothing
People who are so critical and defensive about others‘ opinions on the investments probably don’t have enough confidence in their personal investments and theses…
thanks for sharing!
im long and i agree fully i just accept the risk as a younger investor (27 yr old)
thanks for sharing!
It's a big value trap, waste of time investing on it. The competition (Stripe, Adyen etc) charges much lower rates. Stripe for example, processes $1+ trillion an year and doesn't make as much money. Why? Because the margins in that business are becoming really thin.
Paypal can still push a bigger margin because of its brand, but merchants are pulling out and moving to cheaper alternatives, it's a zombie business.
that is the story, thanks!
Not for long...changes are coming fast.
I would the business start contracting? 🤔
They have a growing business with growing forecasts, and are diversifying on new revenue streams not to turnaround but to speed up growth.
I think you were on point when you said the business it’s hard to understand and that is why many investors don’t see potential on PayPal.
Paypall business it’s much more complex than the paypall digital wallet and branded checkout. They are world leaders in e-commerce unbranded checkouts. The way I see it their scale and data they collect it’s a key competitive advantage as they can keep investing and inovating on technologies that can improve the conversion of online checkouts. Competition will always grow, but as long as they keep inovating and leveraging the data they collect, they can maintain their leadership position.
Sure their margins might decrease as time goes by and they diversify on new revenue streams, but in absolute numbers the futures looks bright.
Excellent vidéo. Thé Logic is rock solid.
How often do you use paypal there in Croatia per month?
I didn't use PayPal in the last years...
As an infrequent user of PayPal, I hate it.
thanks for sharing!
PayPal has no moat. Value trap. Payment processing is a commodity, and PayPal is a dinosaur. Any high tech company can come in and destroy PayPal in one swift swoop. Get out.
thanks for sharing
@@Value-Investing I feel like I'm the only person that holds this opinion, yet it seems so obvious to me.
If it don't go up, don't buy it - Lynch
Sven, can you do analysis of Wise PLC please? It would be a nice contrast to PayPal as Wise has a big growth expectations and it's a stellar business. Not sure about the price though
Nahh pypl being a weak business is the only thing sven is right on.
I must say that the Nigerian nickel mine got me laughing 😅 Anyways, it’s good to hear your perspective on things Sven. Mostly I agree with your points. On the other hand, you are mentioning “limiting the risk” while you are investing in China. That by itself is definitely a “risky territory” (invasion of Taiwan, regional disputes with Russia or with Japan, South Korea and Philippines, real estate crisis, demographic problems, etc. etc.). I’m not saying China is uninvestable and certainly from the value perspective it looks pretty good, however there’s a ton of risk there.
I see risks everywhere, thus I try to manage that all. China, US, Europe, .... risk, risk, risk....
A lot of people have PayPal stock and hurting that's y they r saying what they saying
I had PayPal and sold when they started talking about going into advertising. PayPal was primarily a payment processor.
What gives them the right to be able to compete with the big players in advertising? If a new company had an IPO today stating that they have a great source of information that they can use for a new type of advertising platform I would steer clear due to the risk involved. I am looking at PayPal as I would any other company trying to do what they are doing.
Then there is the opportunity cost of investing. When there are companies such as google, why would you risk money with PayPal.
PayPal is currently a speculation bet. Not investing. Investing means you can base judgement on their future business. Does anyone know what there business will look like in 5 years? I certainly can’t predict that.
thanks for sharing! I agree!
Can you make analysis on Bristol Myers Squibb? I like to know what do you think about risk-reward on this company. Thanks.
He doesn't do healthcare / pharma stocks, it's not his area of interest or expertise.
as they say, not my circle of competence :-(
@@Value-Investing ok, understand
Aww someone is butthurt again :( can't handle other people's views. I actually appreciate opposition because I want to see what the bears think. If I think the bear thesis is priced in with a margin of safety, then I'm still okay. Stop making crybaby videos and insisting on your views. Focus on analyzing businesses and let people criticize your work. Its youtube not daddy daycare!
don't you think I know this is YT??? Thanks for commenting and helping the YT algorithm for my channel :-)
Maybe not be so sensitive. Proverbs 15:31-33 31 The ear that listens to life-giving correction dwells among the wise.
32 Those who refuse discipline despise themselves, but those who listen to correction gain understanding.
33 The fear of the LORD is wise instruction, and humility comes before respect.
Sven sure show those Nigerian Nickels who's the Dime!
:-)))
PYPL looks like a value trap to me. Serious competition coming for them. They probably will continue to lose market share and margins will decline. Just my 2 cents
thanks for sharing!
many people believe that betting on a company’s better future is investing =) this is reality)
You do it great Sven, I really appreciate your work :)
thanks!
Sven I love your videos and Im a fan of yours since late 2018. $PYPL is a traders heaven as my colleague at a hedge fund would say. Keep up the good work
Sven, your sense of humor is very dark. But i like your video.
On a very related note, i am actively looking for a massage place that is specializing in massages with very sad endings. Can you help me find one. To be clear, I am interested in sad ending for my massage. I dont want the other type of ending.
hahahaahahah
Sven is someone who knows what he's talking about, with a PhD, years of experience, etc. Yet, people who can't hold a candle to him and are completely unknown come here to attack the man. How is this possible? Sven can make mistakes like everyone else, especially in the world of buying and selling stocks. I prefer to listen to and believe what Sven says, as he studies the company and the market before speaking, rather than a complete unknown, without evidence and without studying the market, who thinks Sven is wrong.
He was actually wrong often. On Intel, Bristol Byers, lithium stocks.. but yes, I get your point. He knows more than many others!
PayPal is kind of anti freedom. There was a story a few months ago
PYPL is down 80% from it's 2021 highs. It's extremely rare a company ever returns to a previous high after falling that much.
META, NVDA etc etc
@@srb00 neither fell 80 percent and PYPL isn't those companies.
@@barno65 META fell from 375 to 90 and is now at 500. So yeah it's 76% drop whatever, your point was bs.
First I said it's extremely rare not that it doesn't happen, 76 is not 80 and PYPL doesn't compare to META or NVDA
@@barno65 so if you don't want examples pointed at, don't make an argument of comparison in the first place. Yes it happens and it can even happen to the most valuable companies in the world. Want more examples? How about Amazon, it dropped 93%.
Wanting to be right or make $$$, that's the real question.
With those comments no need of real result . I guess :) It's a bit sarcastic but sometimes it works like this. Risky bet have just to stay small position... Paypal isn't too bad, it's arguably one of the best company in this sector. But is there a real moat, I doubt it at the moment. So I guess you are right, it's hardly predictable...
You make the best content. You your quality up Sven. Congratulations for sticking to the right principles and avoiding delusionality
I appreciate that!
It's a market. SBC means you attract talent. If you don't and others do, where talent is the only thing that matters with software companies, you're dead. It's unfortunately a necessary strategy.
thanks for sharing!
Paypal as a business is not the best. Their margins will continue to shrink unless they figure something out. A “race to zero” like brokerage’s have had to do. If it goes up it will be from hype and that is NOT what we invest in.
thanks for sharing
What abouts it's competition.. Thoughts on SQ?
there will be a lot of competition
Have you looked at Neste recently? Pivoting into biofuel/sustainable aviation fuel and the share price has fallen off a cliff. Could be something more up your street sir!
what do you mean re-invent for growth? the growth is still their.. and regards to competition, the competition has already been their for a long time now (10 years or so) and look at what PayPal has done in that time. They are taking market share off legacy finance so their is still plenty of growth for everyone atm.
didn't they acquire Venom
@@Value-Investing Yes. Back in 2013.
Bought on the thumbnail. Watched the video message unclear what do I do? Wait its Saturday, who did I just give my money too?
hahahaha
Thank you for your honesty. I agree with you.
Thanks for watching!
can you a deep dive in Nigerian nickel mines
I should also go there!!
It’s a question of the mindset as value investor……. At the end we never know for sure….. everyone has to decide for himself. Guys that expect an echo chamber will most likely never be successful value investors….. I am in it know for almost 30 years - these guys always existed
yes, thanks for sharing!
Nigerian nickel miner 😂😂😂 best part of CZcams is reading the comment section
This is just stupid
thanks for sharing
Amazing video and thumbnail. I really like your sense of humour. 😊 The risk and reward concept is apparently too complex to teach to most of the people out there. Anyway… Please keep on trying, Sven
will do!
Expressing critics against a stock in portfolio is unfair.... Too many emotions in investing is not ok. It is your money and it is not easy to be detached. It is ok. Good job expressing your opinion. Keep on.
Hi Sven, can you please do a LVMH vs Kering video?
It would help if you could clarify the downside. It would make credible the actual risk, considering the valuation.
only the future will tell
I just don't see any moat here, so many other financial services out there
You make good analysis Sven. Just telling it like it is. People can choose to do with it what they think is the smart thing. Everybody has another risk tolerance. Value Investing is about low risk high reward. Let the haters hate. Don't give them attention. Positive criticism is good but just plain hate or nonsense is a waste of time.
There are thousands of stocks out there why worry about one ☝️.
:-)
You were considerably wrong.
thanks for commenting
Do AVT please?
thanks for suggesting!
You do know, by being wishy-washy you lose credibility?
thanks for sharing!