Project Management Scheduling using Excel and Monte-Carlo Simulation a Simple Example

I scheduled a project of 5 activities using Excel and applying Monte Carlo Simulation. functions used are sequence(rows,columns, start end) & randbetween(a,b) & norm.inv(prob(),mu,sigma) & max(a,b) I plotted the result using the histogram chart.
to download the Excel sheet
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[@0413984]

You made that extremely easy! Thanks - most coherent and straightforward explanation I have found!

[@RamizAssaf-E]

Glad it helped!

[@powidel2118]

Exactly what I was looking for! Thank you for making the video so concise and helpful

[@RamizAssaf-E]

Glad it helped

[@mahranmd]

رهيب، الله يقويك ولا تحرمنا من هالمحاضرات المهمة
جبت صلب الموضوع

[@jeffottesen143]

Excellent and simple. Many thanks!!

[@trondselnes8695]

Great practical application of a Monte Carlo simulation

[@tahirhanif9669]

Excellent. Thank you

[@jdtbruck]

Excellent and clear explanation!

[@RamizAssaf-E]

Glad it was helpful!

[@bradleyb5633]

Great explanation

[@sisiprincessful]

thank you sir, great explanation!

[@siimegift2197]

Thankyou

[@RamizAssaf-E]

most welcome

[@praisejiji]

many thanks

[@RamizAssaf-E]

You are welcome

[@drKrueger100]

Can you explain how to read the histogram? How did you determine that 31 days was 10-15% probability?

[@RamizAssaf-E]

Approximately it was about 10-15%, but if you divided each count by the total you can create percentages, you can also use the Data Analysis Histogram functionality that shows percentages if you like

[@PMDrill]

do a pivot table with the project duration, find the running % total. It will give you the probability.
Once you have the pivot table, you can also plot a combo graph, one that shows the histogram and another axis for cumulative %. It becomes easier to read the graph.

[@Ali_2024-k9k]

It's only 5 task what if there is a 1000 task like in complex project ?
Is it possible to run a monte carlo simulation with Ms project ??

[@RamizAssaf-E]

No idea about MS project, in theory even Excel can make 1000 tasks... it would take time to run the monte carlo simulation though

[@Ali_2024-k9k]

@@RamizAssaf-E please an example of project with 20 tasks, monte carlo simulation of course

[@JalanJalanAjah]

Thank you for the clear step on the video! Question, the states of the activities seem like Markov Chain so Is it possible to assume this approach to be used for running simulation on AR (account receivable aging report or invoice payment as well, in days)?

[@RamizAssaf-E]

You can use Monte Carlo Simulation for Markov chains, but that would be another video. This is a project, so it is not a Markov chain, i do know if it can be modeled as an absorbing MC

[@JalanJalanAjah]

​@@RamizAssaf-E Thanks for the respond.

[@nataliasastoque2690]

Great video! Why is C normal distributed?

[@RamizAssaf-E]

just as an example