Time Series Forecasting Example in RStudio

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  • čas přidán 8. 02. 2018
  • Demonstrates the forecasting process with a business example - the monthly dollar value of retail sales in the US from 1992-2017. See links below for CSV file and textbook.
    Link to CSV file: adamjcheck.com/real_sales_per_...
    Link to Hyndman and Athanasopoulos: otexts.org/fpp2/

Komentáře • 273

  • @borknagarpopinga4089
    @borknagarpopinga4089 Před 4 lety +105

    Just saved my master thesis in economics

  • @paulajunior8602
    @paulajunior8602 Před 4 lety +41

    I wish you made more videos. This was so thorough!!!! Soooooo much better than my professors or a lot of other videos online. Please consider making more on anything in data analytics. We would all appreciate it!!!

  • @neginmoghaddasi5466
    @neginmoghaddasi5466 Před 2 lety +1

    It was extremely helpful. Thank you so much for the video. Please make more of these videos. You explain the codes and the process comprehensively and smoothly. Great job!

  • @oliverplatt6537
    @oliverplatt6537 Před 5 lety +31

    Thanks for posting this! One of the best R forecasting tutorials I've seen on CZcams. Would be great to see a more complex multivariate model being built and tested.

    • @adamcheck9108
      @adamcheck9108  Před 5 lety +8

      Thank you. I may do that at some point.

    • @barbiturate7650
      @barbiturate7650 Před 2 lety +4

      @@adamcheck9108 Seriously Adam we're all waiting! Good stuff man

  • @marlagansukh5523
    @marlagansukh5523 Před 2 lety +1

    Thanks a lot! I had a task to detect an outlier in forecasting analysis in R but literally had no prior experience in R! You just saved me. This tutorial is so beginner-friendly and easy to take notes! Can't thank you enough

  • @seans6158
    @seans6158 Před 3 lety +3

    Thank you for making this video! This was a super helpful exercise and I'm sure people would love more videos on forecasting with R. Thank you for making this and all of your excellent explanation.

  • @alvarovadillozumaran1763
    @alvarovadillozumaran1763 Před 4 lety +5

    I'm studying econometrics with RStudio. Thanks a lot for your video! It's amazing.

  • @stadeua
    @stadeua Před rokem

    Beyond the obvious knowledge of both R and statistics, you hold outstanding communication skills. Great job!

  • @tominwisconsin
    @tominwisconsin Před rokem +5

    This is an outstanding video. I'm new to R and forecasting - and you got me up and running in 37 minutes and 52 seconds! I really appreciate your clear explanations of the various options; I'm excited to check out fpp3, and confident that because of your excellent instruction I'll be able to move forward with forecasting software costs for my workplace. Many thanks!

  • @MrBlunt419_
    @MrBlunt419_ Před 4 lety

    Very good instructor! Its taken me forever to find someone good at teaching R stuff

  • @shankervarandani
    @shankervarandani Před rokem +1

    Amazing, in just 30 minutes you covered the topic and code so well. Thanks a lot!

  • @ryanferguson7190
    @ryanferguson7190 Před 2 lety +1

    This is just amazing! A lot simpler than I imagined... Thank you for doing this

  • @wimdechering5149
    @wimdechering5149 Před 9 měsíci

    One of the best videos.i like the real data and the different steps of submodes and their improvement. Excellent work!

  • @ScottHardy
    @ScottHardy Před rokem

    This is such an excellent walk-thru explained very well. Thanks so much for this work!

  • @davidserrano3031
    @davidserrano3031 Před 6 lety +1

    This was a very helpful guide for forecasting data. Thank you for taking the time to publish this.

  • @alapitsk
    @alapitsk Před 2 lety

    Great R studio and forecasting tutorial. Thank you for putting it together!

  • @stonejaison413
    @stonejaison413 Před 4 lety +1

    Your tutorial is excellent and you sure have amazing explaining skills.. hats off bro

  • @ZhibinHong
    @ZhibinHong Před rokem

    sad. after 4 years only one upload! this is the best Arima + forecast I have ever seen...

  • @leminhthien3086
    @leminhthien3086 Před 4 lety +2

    Amazing!!! Thank Adam for your nice work. Please keep posting videos:)

  • @CeliaWhiteKeys
    @CeliaWhiteKeys Před 5 lety +5

    Thanks a lot for making this video! It was really, really helpful

  • @yvonnemendoza7877
    @yvonnemendoza7877 Před 3 lety +1

    You are awesome! Thanks a lot for sharing. This is exactly what I needed. I can't thank you enough. Well done.

  • @EmperorPenguin91
    @EmperorPenguin91 Před 6 lety

    This was EXTREMELY helpful. Thank you for the video.

  • @hannahmealy4610
    @hannahmealy4610 Před 3 lety

    Really helpful Video, you should do more on how to use RStudio. The way you explain things is very easy to understand.

  • @siyizheng8560
    @siyizheng8560 Před 5 lety +2

    Thank you for your video. It is really clear and helpful!

  • @koras28
    @koras28 Před 5 lety +5

    This is by far the best time series tutorial. Can we expect more soon ?

    • @adamcheck3315
      @adamcheck3315 Před 5 lety

      Hi Matt, thanks for the kind words. I am not planning more at this time. Just curious - what type of tutorial would you be most interested in?

  • @erwinjokoanwar
    @erwinjokoanwar Před 3 lety +1

    Great job dude. Absolutely appreciated it 🙏

  • @LM3_21
    @LM3_21 Před 2 lety

    Adam thanks for the great video, really well explain and to the point. Really appreciated.

  • @pcorvalan109
    @pcorvalan109 Před 5 lety

    Thank you! very clear tutorial about how to apply forecasting process.

  • @jennyoconnor745
    @jennyoconnor745 Před 4 lety +1

    Very helpful Adam! Thank you very much!

  • @thulasirao9139
    @thulasirao9139 Před 3 lety +1

    Thank you so much. Detail info and I am able to follow. Better than Professors. Kindly upload more on Linear, Multi Linear, Logistic Regression. will be very helpful.

  • @RamVelagala
    @RamVelagala Před 4 lety +1

    thank you so much, ur the best. followed ur video and I got my project done.

  • @bluesage1528
    @bluesage1528 Před 3 lety +2

    Thank you, great tutorial!!! Very helpful to see how you think and explore. Thanks again for sharing

  • @papasumit
    @papasumit Před 5 lety +1

    Wow! I was searching for such walk thru on R with basic fundamental

  • @meekm002
    @meekm002 Před 3 lety +2

    Thanks a lot! Really explained it well and went into the perfect level of detail!

  • @banukadimuthu4070
    @banukadimuthu4070 Před 2 lety

    Great job Adam, you are the best !!!!

  • @marcoa5777
    @marcoa5777 Před 4 lety +1

    Thank you very much. Cheers from Switzerland

  • @Dataanalyticspro
    @Dataanalyticspro Před 5 lety

    Thank you so much for this tutorial. Please post more videos like this. You took your time and explained things.

  • @masterbok1535
    @masterbok1535 Před 4 lety +1

    This is really great video! I subscribed to your channel and hit the bell! I'm so glad there's videos like this in youtube. More Power man!

  • @simple-jp1cs
    @simple-jp1cs Před 2 lety

    Thanks for uploading this video, this helped me in writing my report due tonight!

  • @lunayang9960
    @lunayang9960 Před 5 lety

    Awesome vid! You should totally make more of them!

  • @titaniumwolf2757
    @titaniumwolf2757 Před 2 lety

    This video was very helpful, and you're the best!

  • @fiddleywest3778
    @fiddleywest3778 Před rokem

    You should consider putting a course together, you by far have the best communication on CZcams topped off with astounding knowledge on statistics and code.

  • @yamaahmady1381
    @yamaahmady1381 Před rokem

    Very useful video. You are so clear and coherent in presenting it. Thanks friend.

  • @PauloAbreu
    @PauloAbreu Před rokem

    Awesome example and explanation! Thanks from 2022 ;-)

  • @raylarone6722
    @raylarone6722 Před 4 lety +1

    Thank you, this is all very interesting!

  • @Mipetz38
    @Mipetz38 Před 3 lety +5

    We need this dude to come back

  • @itumelengmosala513
    @itumelengmosala513 Před rokem

    Absolutely wonderful video. Thanks a million

  • @pralhadkalkundre2651
    @pralhadkalkundre2651 Před 5 lety +2

    Thank you !! Tutorial was very clear..
    Please upload many more such videos..

    • @adamcheck9108
      @adamcheck9108  Před 5 lety

      Thank you! I might have time to do another over the summer.

  • @nickgomez1241
    @nickgomez1241 Před 5 lety +3

    Very Helpful!! Thanks so much

  • @munkhdulamotgonbayar9923
    @munkhdulamotgonbayar9923 Před 3 lety +1

    Thank you very much for making this video.

  • @GularMammadova-rj2qd
    @GularMammadova-rj2qd Před rokem

    Thank you very much, this is the most helpful video I have ever seen💕💕

  • @jjm2679
    @jjm2679 Před 5 lety +1

    Adam, this is great video, thanks a lot!

  • @arindampanda2905
    @arindampanda2905 Před 2 lety

    Thank you so much ....very clear, saved my day in office!

  • @pianpianyang8578
    @pianpianyang8578 Před 2 lety

    This is so helpful. Looking forward for more such good content video

  • @samanderson3205
    @samanderson3205 Před 3 lety

    Great Video ! and very helpful. Thanks for sharing.

  • @Hamromerochannel
    @Hamromerochannel Před 2 lety

    just saved my university project. thank you guru

  • @ernests4066
    @ernests4066 Před 4 lety +2

    it was very helpfull, u saved much of my time

  • @aussiecopy
    @aussiecopy Před 3 lety

    Incredible! Thank you so much.

  • @leulgeta7667
    @leulgeta7667 Před 2 lety

    Thank you so much. This is a very helpful lecture !

  • @ramchandrathapa3532
    @ramchandrathapa3532 Před 3 lety

    Thanks you sir for this awesome demonstration.

  • @rvstats_ES
    @rvstats_ES Před 4 lety

    Well done. Outstanding video.

  • @franklinifeanyi1738
    @franklinifeanyi1738 Před rokem

    very explicit, you absolute justice to time series explanation

  • @mohammedasadi
    @mohammedasadi Před 5 lety

    Great video, thank you so much!

  • @jamesshanahan1197
    @jamesshanahan1197 Před 2 lety

    You are a legend, thanks a million!

  • @alexanderquispe7999
    @alexanderquispe7999 Před 4 lety

    you are the Boss..........Awesome explanation¡¡¡¡ awesome example¡¡¡¡

  • @thewheelster1
    @thewheelster1 Před 2 lety +1

    Amazing video; thank you for making it. Is there a way to convert the data from the autoplot(fcst) plot into a data frame? My initial thought was to use as.data.frame(fcst), but this only shows me the forecasted numbers and not the data before then.

  • @CaribouDataScience
    @CaribouDataScience Před 2 lety

    Thanks, this was really helpful.

  • @annasmith7226
    @annasmith7226 Před 2 lety

    you really really really helped me today thank god i found this video today

  • @Pronx16
    @Pronx16 Před rokem

    thank you so much, you saved my life

  • @ravin5756
    @ravin5756 Před 2 lety

    Great help, Thanks a million.

  • @MiguelHCBits
    @MiguelHCBits Před 3 lety

    Awesome!! We need more tutorial. Cross-correlation, and more...

  • @kaustavM
    @kaustavM Před 2 lety

    Awesome content. Please make more videos ❤️

  • @tituskipkorir7430
    @tituskipkorir7430 Před 3 lety

    Awesome... Please do more videos like this

  • @MrAttolotto
    @MrAttolotto Před rokem +1

    Amazing Tutorial!!!

  • @djgulston
    @djgulston Před 3 lety +1

    Thank you! This is how you teach! My lecturer would never do anything like this.

  • @o0Harryy0o
    @o0Harryy0o Před rokem

    Great stuff and clean coding 👌

  • @bernardosidrim2093
    @bernardosidrim2093 Před rokem

    Really nice and helpful... Thanks!

  • @lolocat7375
    @lolocat7375 Před 5 lety +1

    really thanks your video is the best one .

  • @UdiSabach
    @UdiSabach Před 2 lety

    This is a very helpful video. Thank you! I do have a question. How do you suggest I address negative prediction intervals? I am forecasting sales and I can't imagine having negative sales in a given period.

  • @JinaneJouni
    @JinaneJouni Před 2 lety

    I just love this video!!!!! ❤️

  • @remotaudien7381
    @remotaudien7381 Před rokem

    Very helpful. Thank you!

  • @balajireddipalli790
    @balajireddipalli790 Před 3 lety +1

    Very well explained, kudos !

  • @Optg875
    @Optg875 Před 2 měsíci

    thank youu sooooo much it"s saving my masters😭🙇‍♀

  • @gloriali5764
    @gloriali5764 Před 4 lety

    Really awesome!! thank you ...

  • @Ethannnnnnnn
    @Ethannnnnnnn Před 5 lety

    Thank you very much ! it helped me a lot. Thanks again !

  • @aqua5802
    @aqua5802 Před 4 lety

    Just amazing. Thanks

  • @choma82
    @choma82 Před rokem

    fantastic job!

  • @mrignayani04
    @mrignayani04 Před 5 lety

    you made life simple. it was very easy to follow through... wish you had done the same data in HoltWinters model too.

    • @adamcheck9108
      @adamcheck9108  Před 5 lety

      The "ets" model covered in the video chooses the "best" type of exponential smoother for the data at hand. Holt-Winters is equivalent to ETS(A,A,A). The "ets" function chose ETS(A,Ad,A) which is the same as Holt-Winters but dampens the trend a bit so the forecasts are not quite as aggressive. If you wanted to force a traditional Holt-Winters you could write:
      ets(Y,model="AAA",damped=FALSE)

  • @PraveenR7
    @PraveenR7 Před 4 lety

    Great video! Thanks

  • @22952146
    @22952146 Před 2 lety

    Great Job it i was very informational and easy to understand

  • @johnpatrickgonzales2065

    Thank you Adam Check

  • @chythra02
    @chythra02 Před 5 lety

    Great video Adam! I'm fairly new to R and I had a question. What if I had daily data ? Would the time series (ts) line change in the code ?

    • @adamcheck3315
      @adamcheck3315 Před 5 lety +1

      For daily data you should technically set "frequency=365.25" to properly account for leap years. However some functions will require an integer value for frequency, so as long as your history isn't too long you could likely get away with "frequency=365". Some functions will not work with daily data (I don't think the exponential smoothing ones will, for example).

  • @chescov
    @chescov Před 5 lety +2

    Thank you very much my good sir, greattt tutorial!!! is there a way to include a loop so we can use the arima model to forecast multiple timeseries? thank you again!

    • @adamcheck9108
      @adamcheck9108  Před 5 lety +3

      Sorry for slow reply. Yes there is. Suppose the matrix/dataframe holding your data is called "data" and you had "m" series that you wanted to forecast. Then you could do something like:
      for(i in 1:m){
      Y

  • @sahelidutta6939
    @sahelidutta6939 Před rokem

    this saved me, thanks

  • @hadiheidari5021
    @hadiheidari5021 Před 3 lety

    thank you very much for good presentation a bout R!

  • @Nana-hj1ft
    @Nana-hj1ft Před 3 lety

    Great video. Thank you 😆

  • @rafaanimir8820
    @rafaanimir8820 Před 11 měsíci

    You are awesome!

  • @saibabavenkateswara2036

    very nice video,,, pls continue,,,

  • @antoniomarzano884
    @antoniomarzano884 Před 3 lety +1

    Thank u very much Adam! You are helping me a lot with my Internship. I have only one question, My data is from 2014 JAN until 2020 JUL (monthly), do i need to make any change on "
    Y

    • @adamcheck9108
      @adamcheck9108  Před 3 lety

      when you specify the start date, c(2014,2) means the 2nd month of 2014. Since your data starts in January you need to change the "2" to a "1".

  • @akijgroup7494
    @akijgroup7494 Před 6 lety

    Excellent Tutorial need more........

    • @adamcheck9108
      @adamcheck9108  Před 5 lety

      Thanks! What other topics or commands are you interested in?