Why Afghanistan is Dying
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- čas přidán 10. 06. 2024
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SOURCES:
I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. www.moneymacro.rocks/2022-05-...
Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
0:46 - How Countries Get Rich
1:55 - Poverty Traps
3:02 - Landlocked Trap
6:55 - Conflict Trap
11:14 - Resource Trap
13:16 - Bad Governance Trap
17:33 - Final Thoughts 1
17:52 - Sponsor
18:26 - Final Thoughts 2
Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort
Editing & Studio design by Alex Moore Via www.dmsquaredagency.com
Attribution:
Thumbnail image: DVIDSHUB, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons
Bottom Billion Book Cover: Paul Collier
Landlock trap slide picture: via Wikimedia
Endless conflict slide picture: via Wikimedia
Resource paradox slide picture: Jerome Starkey via Flickr
Bad governance slide picture: DonkeyHotey via Flickr
Botswana 1960s clip from YT Kinolibrary
Icons by Freepik, photo3idea_studio & Vectors Market
Ethiopia? I am an Ethiopian and Ethiopian economy is rich only on paper and the media. The social fabric of Ethiopia has disintegrated to the point of no repair. Soon we will be a very good example of how a country could disintegrated so fast. Thanks to our PM who is trying to rule the country by convincing or confusing the rest of the nationalities other than his tribe. A recipe for demise of the country. I feel sorry to say this and powerless to help.
By the way i love your content and learn a lot from you.
Every time I read about Ethiopia's current situation I get sad, I hope the war in the Tigray region ends.
@@madisonkung8390 Well, it looks like it has, since there has not only been a ceasefire with humanitarian aid and negotiations, like happened earlier this year and failed, but an actual treaty-like agreement regarding reunification and I think elections. Also, I suspect when he was talking about Ethiopia's economy growing, he meant before 2020, or at least before the war started in 2021.
Isn't Ahmed Arby half Oromo? How did he alienated his own tribe?
Great analysis as always. A couple extra points:
1. Demographics - Afghans median age is 18.6, there are only a handful of developed countries with a median age less than 30. It is very difficult to have a stable economy and accumulate capital at such a young age.
2. Geography- it’s a high altitude, landlocked, mountainous, desert with no navigable rivers… it’s very expensive to build the infrastructure necessary for development in such an environment. Even China is struggling to build infrastructure in Tibet.
I would not expect Afghanistan to reach middle income before 2050. That said, they could play China to their advantage and try to route a bunch of trade through Afghan. The obvious candidates being oil & gas lines as China is looking to move their energy trade away from American controlled oceans.
Let's face it, as long as the Taliban are in power/don't fundamentally change their ways nobody, not even the Chinese, will invest in Afghanistan. The risks are simply to many and to high.
What if another civil war breaks out?
What about the "regulatory environment"? (The Taliban can just take your stuff/Arrest you and your employees for some made up religious bs)
What about the crumbling infrastructure that's not being maintained?
What about the sanctions?
What about relations with the neighbors? (closed borders/war)
What about the exchange rate?
The problem with demographics as I sees it, is that when you have a very fast population growth it becomes very difficult for an economy to grow equally fast. So when more people is going to share a countrys economic pie, then the slized for each one has to become smaller - which mean that the standard of living falls.
And in a such a society you do not want to be a loser. Girls do not want to date losers, and this in turn creates volatile unstable societies with many young men that are angry. And often seek comfort in religion, and religion combined with anger often results in radicalism and religious extremism and violance.
I do not know of any succesful economy in a country where women gives birth to 8 children. All such countries look as failed states to me. And probably because as I said, that there is hard to create enough economic growth and jobs for everyone to off-set the effect of more people having share the economic pie.
I also think it is difficult to produce enough housing and provide enough teachers to educate such a fast growing population. And without education you will get a suboptimal resource use - in this case a suboptimal use of a countrys human resources.
So while it is good that people have kids, they should not try to overdo the thing and breed crazy like rabbits.
And while I like young people bringing in new fresh ideas to replace the old dumb outdated ideas of elderly generations... I do on the other hand not think that a huge young male population that is very revolutionary is good thing either.
Old people are weak and cannot take up weapons to fight a revolution. And why should they? They will soon be dead anyways.
Young men on the other hand are strong and very capable of violance. And they have their entire life ahead of them and thus have much to gain from using violance.
Thanks for solving the mystery.
If they mature their exports or resources and crops, they should look to buy land and ports in Pakistan just south of them
note: US neavy is shrinking fast past decade. chinese making a france navy scale every single year, btand new ships not us 30 plus years old ship
I wrote my final thesis based largely on Collier's work and the "Bottom Billion". Great video and case study summarizing his work!
Thanks! Fascinating guy. Really helped me get out of my monetary comfort zone.
I read the Bottom Billion recently and was later surprised at the many people who seem to disregard it and the ideas it works on. Any thoughts on why that might be?
@@josemilheiro5431 I don't know for sure. My best guess is that development economics is inherently highly political, with Collier himself having been pretty high up in the World Bank. Lots of opinions, and lots of strong opinions.
Then your thesis is a joke, sir.
@@wickedeternity2002 Chill dude no need to be soo mean.
"How Countries Get Rich?" Probably by avoiding being bombed for more than a decade.
You bomb the other country for twenty years
Not a decade.. since British India brother.
The British establishment of Pakistan 1947 has been geopolitical cancer in Afghanistan. USA & Russia then Iran and Arab nations.
@@Angel-ks8pd but a decade would at least be a good start.
@@gregmcmanus1975
Oh yeah, when WW trade center got attacked look what happened. Imagine 20 years then Russia 10 years then prior to that it was Pakistan ISI and American CIA constant planing to destabilize the Russian Afghan communist regime. Pakistan is a British establishment 1947 in occupied Southern Khorasan Afghan only 75 years back so this damaged Afghanistan. Pakistanis are Indian settlers from the geopolitical extension of British India who invaded Khorasan (Afghanistan) 4 times, but occupied and southern half which now Pakistan. And just so you know the Afghans were never extremists or known to be extremist. The cia blueprinted Taliban and Pakistan isi trained the Afghan youths from poor Afghan neighborhoods of Pakistan in hundreds of madrassas throughout Pakistan. This master plan of USA via Taliban with the orders of Islamic extremism they impose on Afghanistan is simply destabilize and depopulate the whole country. Pakistan is blood thirsty for the rest of Afghan occupation - remember they’re extension of British India (the great game) who wanted to occupy whole Afghan land but took half.
This guy thinks Afghans are dumb lol
I love your new logo especially when your cat was walking in front of it!
Phenomenal… couldn’t agree more. Back in the 60s afghanistan has a monarchy which was relatively stable and the country whilst still poor was developing
It was modernizing kinda like Japan was back in the 1870s-1890s. But that was cut short to the power grab then the communist-led coup.
@@itsblitz4437 It was the ussr's vicious war which broke the glass bottle. 5 million exited the country and that's only been the beginning of a never-ending exodus.
@@itsblitz4437 and al went downhill from there
@@itsblitz4437 followed by the american invasion and 20 year occupation
@@itsblitz4437 Afghanistan was way better under the communist government lmao. They actually gave women rights for once too.
12:00 Internal regions of countries fall into a version this trap as well when local economies over-specialize in a particular commodity, manufacturing sector, or service... even to the exclusion of things like infrastructure and investment in the local population. Then the golden goose collapses and things start to fall apart.
Dutch disease IIRC
That happened in the US midwest back in the mid-late 80's when China finally got into the steel production and large scale manufacturing businesses. Their cheap but still decent products outcompeted those the midwest could produce and it caused local depressions that in some cases were comparable to The Great Depression. And NOWHERE was this felt harder then the US 'Steel capitol', my hometown Pittsburgh. It's entire economy for 100+ years revolved around steel making and now some one had taken it away from them. How bad was it? There are STILL local communities that haven't recovered after 35+ years. The city itself learned its lesson and moved on, diversifying its trade to insure another collapse like this doesn't happen again. But its telling when a community in a 1st world fully developed country hasn't recovered from its collapse back in the 80's.
Story of Detroit
@@jghifiversveiws8729 ...and Texas in 20 years. 😋
@@mikebaker2436 over specialized and you breath in weakness
Coming from the US I always think about how fortunate things turned out here for so long economically, compared to any other country, hence why the US became the most influential country on earth as opposed to all other countries which didn't despite often having often one or two of the favorable qualities of the US, but not all. It is quite ridiculous just how incredible things went for several generations straight with the growth and wealth generation from the founding of the country (and indeed before that) to the end of the 2nd industrial revolution in the early to mid 20th century. It is easy to forget that most countries simply do not have that opportunity, a lot of people tend to think that in other countries people just don't try hard enough or are just not capable as individuals inherently but it is largely circumstantial. It's not like today's developed regions were wealthy 10,000 to 100,000 years ago despite it being the same people as today otherwise.
It's free real estate
Building an empire can be good for a country XD
@@RedCaribbean And having hundreds of years of free labour. BTW, how rich are the original natives and former slaves?
@@Ayinde65Slavery isn't actually good for economic growth. That's why free northern states outperformed southern states economically.
Also, what little wealth was generated by slavery was mostly destroyed during the Civil War and didn't really carry over into the 20th Century economy.
10:10 Another facet of the conflict trap is the influx of foreign fighters and mercenaries into a conflict region... who from a purely economic standpoint contribute to infrastructure and population loss in exchange for exporting resources home (in plunder or pay).
Great video. I can add that my country, Brazil, has been trapped in the Bad Governance Trap since ever. We have all good ingredients to build a great and prosperous nation, but instead we make sure we miss every single opportunity to develop the economy, remain a rich resources country with poor people. Populism government make poor people dependent of the “favors”of the government, a vicious cycle that never ends.
Love seeing the video production aspects improve over time. Better every video!
Excellent video, professor! However, I believe the reasoning for why people join these militia is barely economical, as suggested by you in your video. I think other factors such as safety, revenge or 'automatic enrolment' are at least as important. These are, of course, examples from the top of my head, but you might get the point that much more is causing them to join these militia, rather than just the economic reasons.
The "get rich" part of that conflict trap discussion is pretty metaphorical/abstract. It is shorthand for succeeding in having a decent life for you and/or your heirs (literal or chosen family & descendants). Somewhat surprisingly, just using actually wealth as a proxy measure for that complex 'success' works pretty well most of the time when looking at large enough populations.
Anyways, few economists and certainly not Collier (no relation) believe the only or even primary motivation is literally making $... At least on the individual level. Economics is bigger than just money.
When you talk about the Dutch Disease it reminds me of the havoc created by plundered New World gold flooding into Spain.
The vast majority of the precious metals wealth extracted from the New World by the Spanish was silver. And that was mined.
@@drmodestoesq I stand corrected. Thanks.
I like this video very much from an educational point of view. The models discussed are probably quite complex, but the compelling example that everybody is faimliar with and a little dumbing downmade it very very accessible
I think trust is the single biggest factor: if people don't trust each other it's very hard to move the country forward. People living in developed country cities can find this hard to believe I think because it matters less here, but it's a big deal. If you don't speak the same language, have a different religion, etc, it's a big brake on development. Even in first world countries like Belgium and Switzerland the people pretty much don't trust those from other communities to rule them fairly so most government functions are devolved to the local level.
Of course there are multiple factors, this video is still useful. I do think the mineral wealth is a bit overstated though, Afghanistan doesn't really have an overwhelming concentration of one type of mineral that makes good conditions for a resource curse.
The US ruined their chance at "winning" in Afghanistan by making the politics a winner-take-all system rather than decentralising as much as possible. Ignoring the handy ex-king who was right there was also a big missed opportunity.
Collier books on immigration talks about trust. It builds up on the ;Bottom Billion'. Poor countries are often also multi-ethnic and multi-religious, which breeds mistrust and suspicion.
I would say the issue of trust is happening in the US too. In the US, it’s not so much about language or religion as much as it is about race. There were many white Americans who didn’t have trust with Obama becoming the president. Now, it’s even more polarizing that those years as the American people have been divided by political tribes even more than race. The right doesn’t trust anyone from the left ruling them fairly and vice versa.
@@liamthomas8029 Yes I too think lack of trust is a big factor in explaining the breakdown of US politics, but I would take an entirely different tack.
Race is the overwhelming issue in the deep south but outside of that I don't see it as much of a problem. The US is just simply too big to govern effectively in a democratic manner. It mainly survived prior to this because most politicians were non-ideological, but that is not a system that can survive now that national media trumps local media.
It seems like the problem is Red vs Blue, urban vs rural, but that is not really the case. It's a matter of vast distances between the people of various parts of the nation, a New Yorker has little reason to trust a Californian and vis versa, a Texan an Alaskan, etc.
The US has always been an individualist focused country but back before the US existed there were more focused colonies of people that had more in common with each other and greater willingness to trust their leaders.
Breaking up the US into about 15 separate countries would improve outcomes by a huge amount. Depending, of course, hugely on where you draw the borders (as shown by the artificial borders of Afghanistan, drawn up as they were by Britain and Russia).
@@liamthomas8029 Anglo Americans, unlike their Portueguese/Spanish counterparts didn't want to intermarry with 'lesser' beings. The British practised the same here in Africa during colonial period. They used a method they called 'indirect rule' while the Portuguese practised 'assimilado'. This is the same principle you practise over there when it comes to the 'melting pot' strategy and it has failed miserably going by the status of your current politics. You will continue to become more and more polarised. Now people pretend its about ideology or party but when wyts are minorities, it shall be openly about race. Your politics will look like ours over here.
The United States really should have done was just bring back the Shah of Afghanistan since the people trusted Shah than some elected corrupt president from another tribe.
11:10 I first came across the idea of Resource Paradox in studies of Africa. It is an under-appreciated phenomenon.
Ever read King Leopold's Ghost? Would recommend.
@@erich1394 its brutal though so cant recommend for everyone
@@ebbeb9827 Good point. Mike, only read the book if you want a brutal education.
@@erich1394 I'll look it up. I can only imagine it will contain praises to that great phylanthropist of the late XIX century.
"imagine if tax is 50%. Do you think people would re-elect a goverment who pockets 50% of paid taxes..."
Bruh... ever heard about Hungary? XD
Up until this year, Hungary fit the model he was describing... because their Resource Trap they were abusing was EU subsidies.
I've heard about the resource trap before but not the others. Interesting video, and for the people of Afghanistan I hope they will manage to avoid them 🤞
What an amazing youtube channel! Thank you for your work, it absolutely fascinating to learn about such specific topic! Also thanks for the subtitles
Very happy to hear that my work is of value :)
Keep these coming, great content
I was waiting 4 weeks for a new video to drop and now I understand why it took so long - because you put in so much content/knowledge! Wtg
Haha thanks. Yeah this one took me a loooong time to make. The one after as well. These country studies are tricky :)
Just read this book, really useful to see its concepts in a real-world situation! I was initially quite confused by the Natural Resource trap as it didn't make sense why having stable revenue would be a curse, but the book made its reasoning very clear and it was contextualised in this video. However, I think rather than Afghanistan having it's own rendition of the 'Dutch disease', I believe it is more affected by the trap of being landlocked with bad neighbours. This is because although natural resources can encourage infrastructure being built to facilitate these exports, it cannot grow to its full potential as it is being held back by its neighbours, which consistently get into political and economic trouble - this has a knock-on effect on Afghanistan, negating any spikes in output. Overall, the effect of Collier's traps are still very clear in Afghanistan, and your video clearly explains how this has occured.
People don’t want to do business with the taliban unless it’s for opium
As always, great video. Do you have plans on making one on the decoupling of economics and ecological variables?
Great video as always Marco! 💪💪🙌
Great video! Can't wait to see what you do next ;)
I think you will play a key role in it :)
This video is amazing, thanks for introducing me to Collier.
WOW. What an amazing video going deep in the situation of Afghanistan. Love it.
Always impresses me with seeing things from different angles
Heel interessante video! Zeer goed het probleem geanalyseerd en uitgelegd. Ik leer veel bij!👏
There's an important and distinct difference between hopelessness and having nothing to lose.
Fair point
@@MoneyMacro I watch just about every video you put out. I'm more on the side of the Austrian school than I think you are. But it's good to not live in an echo chamber. Your analysis of Afghanistan seems pretty spot on. I was in Fallujah Iraq in '05 so this is my meat and potatoes so to speak. One thing that I learned from a Muslim that lived in that region. Is "When America comes to bring democracy the only thing left is cows." Some societies just aren't built for it.
@@rexmann1984 Or perhaps countries just don’t want to be bombed into democracy.
@N Fels No I spoke with a Lebanese man from Germany who was working in the states.
@@PutXi_Whipped worked on Japan and South Korea. Js
Informative video as always
Thanks!!
10:10 ...the conflict trap is also self-perpetuating... if your family was killed in a conflict and you entered the conflict yourself at 12, when you are an adult, what are your children going to do for a way of life?
Hi, Great Videos. Can you analyze the Sri Lankan economic crisis, please?
Very clear explanation. Very good
Great video! very interesting
THIS IS THE SORT OF CONTENT I AM SUBSCRIBED TO LEARNING!
This video needed a little more Macro Cat.
Lol. After watching your video, it brings to mind South Africa who is doing all she can to destroy her economy with corruption and poor governance. Pakistan seems to be facing a similar fate but with military intervention/civil unrest.
Great video!
Any reason why you didn't mention the British invasion prior to the Soviets, did their role not have any significant effect?
Because I didn't think it would add much to get the point across that there has been an insane amount of conflict in Afghanistan.
If you're referring to 1919, Afghanistan invaded British India, not the other way around, although the British did invade Afghanistan plenty in the 19th century. Afghanistan also only really emerged from Persian rule in the mid 18th century, which was a chaotic and violent process. And then there were wars with the Sikhs. There was also an Afghan civil war in the early 19th century (prior to the British) and then another civil war in 1920s.
Although British involvement can't have helped, Afghan history seems really unstable regardless.
It is also worth noting that it often is not up to the country and its people. Your fate can be chosen for you by greater powers (the US just to name one)
this is definetly not US´ fault
@@thetaomega7816 The vid was about "how nations become rich" with Afghanistan as a minor part to use as an ex.
My point was mainly focused on the main point of the vid.
However, since you mention US in the connection to Afghanistan, may I suggest you look into the US operations in Afghanistan over the last 50 years. Taliban was heavily supported by the US in the 80's and that's just the tip of the iceberg.
The US however is by no means the only great power doing this. The main reason Russia is in Ukraine atm is due to Ukraine starting to become rich and thereby pose a threat.
Sometimes war is used, sometimes sanctions, sometimes other means. The short of it, small nations have a hard time deciding their own fate
@@thetaomega7816 except it is.
I've been fascinated by economists ever since reading Tim Harford's Undercover Economist. Economists as a group are some of the most insightful academics and seem to have something of value to contribute to almost any scientific field, not just economics. Whether it be geopolitics, medicine and pharmaceuticals, education or technology, you can't go wrong by first consulting an economics. Thanks for the great content, I just wish I could just simply download all these videos into my brain with the touch of a button. Since we're technologically not there yet, I have no choice but to subscribe 🙂
Great video once again.
I appreciate that
I like how you talk about seasons for country's
Hi, can you please do an analysis on the Korean economy and its future?
7:17 cat
I think a video on the way to get around the dutch disease would be really interesting
Michael parenti made a good speech about why countries are materially rich but economically poor
I am from a neighboring country Pakistan. It's economy is also in shambles and it might default on its debt. Make a video on it.
Sadly, I know. Has a bit of a different dynamic I think (regressing from middle income status). It is on my list for sure.
@N Fels Those industries aren't enough to fuel the economic growth since Pakistan imports most of its Enery supplies and Industrial goods.
@N Fels what does that have to do with anything? Our biggest industry is textile industry
@N Fels What's funny?
@@arhamgill3595 a religious country making haram stuff. That's what he meant by funny
conflict is never good for the economy, you can't have economic growth when most of the population is dead, fleeing or have fled
7:14 your cat is adorable
Thanks you ❤️ All My Soul
This is why Botswana (which hasn’t seen 40 years of violent conflict) is not a good analog.
A closer analog might be Vietnam which while not landlocked has certainly seen decades of horrific war prior to turning around its economy in 1985.
Both countries were also heavily sanctioned by the U.S. after defeating the US. and both countries have clear winners of the war.
@N Fels Tell me you know nothing about Vietnam without telling me you know nothing about Vietnam challenge.
The fact is that the Vietnamese resisted their Japanese and American occupiers and the French colonists to true independence. Then their economic fortunes changed in 1985 with Doi Moi. Today it’s the US that is begging Vietnam to side with it vs China.
You’re such a fragile lil snowflake. Seek therapy.
As an Afghan refugee in France. I cried watching this video. We had lots of opportunities to develop but all these chances wasted. People who worked during the last 20 years despite the war and became rich all had to leave the country now because of Taliban.
But économy is not the reason for militia creation in Afghanistan , its islam religion which has destroyed our country since 1400.
No, it's bcuz Afghanistan was sh*tty due to outside imperial non Muslim powers keep fking it up. It had some better times while being an Islamic country
Your seriously an uneducated
4 traps I can make that even shorter, continued war and instability
Can you do a video on the Nixon Shock of 1971?
Very very interesting
The Bottom Billion is a must read for anyone who wants to understand the world.
Thank you for the amazing video, the quality of your videos have improved so much over time. Do you think that the US could have, with for example different policies, been able to build a successful economy in Afghanistan? It seems to me that the way the country is (Different etnic groups, high corruption) it was doomed to fail.
Most of the funding they provided was embezzled. They knew it for most of the occupation. Nothing was done. It was documented and ignored out of inconvenience.
@@nathanlevesque7812 dont put it all on the afghans. Embezzeled encompasses not only the afghan rulers/government but also the US politicians who have pocketed the money.
@@Mahalakshmi-Khan I didn't...?
Fundamentalism and economic development, id like to see,that.
16:10 Wasn't there some bribery scandal with the sovereign wealth fund of Norway?
Can you make a video about Iran as well?
Nice light.
Thanks!!
Please make a video about Egypt.
1:25 Being from Turkey, I laughed so hard!
Meddling by other countries, mainly the US, sometimes is the primary reason for the resource trap and the bad governance trap
Uhm, in this specific case I would have appreciated more emphasis on the foreign meddling trap.
Wouldn't economic free trade areas circumvent the requirement for capital or foreign currencies?
But who would want to put a company in Afghanistan?
And even if many companies came to this free trade zone, then how do you get access to modern foreign technologies so your country can lift itself out of poverty? If your foreign company choose to relocate then you don't have any know-how left in your country.
And almost all foreign companies are interested in cheap labor working with unskilled jobs.
But low paying jobs is not what makes a country rich. And if you do not build an educated workforce and skills of making certain types of products in your country then you don't get an own manufacturing base that could stand on its own feet in your country.
Your country is thereby stuck in poverty. You do all low paid shitty jobs, while rich countries that owns those companies keeps all profits for themselves.
So if foreign companies want to settle in the country, then they should only be able to do so if they agree to sharing some high technologies with the country, and agreeing to building a trained workforce. This is what China is doing to foreign firms
cool sign
I think you need to make a video with some deep understanding on China sometime. I bought Isabella Weber's How China Escaped Shock Therapy (2021) for that purpose, but I'm also aware of a potentially wonderful resource: The Cambridge Economic History of China (2022).
That book is also on my to read list
Afghanistan would not be landlocked, if Pakistan would not have stolen their land to the sea.
Btw shipping by a cargojet in case of Diamonds yields different results than garments.
He forgot the fifth trap: America not liking you
+ Soviet Union + neighbours financially supporting different factions in your civil war I would argue.
@Apsoy Pike LMAO the US started the Afghanistan War.
@Apsoy Pike Not at the same scale. The civil war was mostly fought with leftover Soviet-Afghan weaponry and whatever the Pakistan military would supply to the Taliban. Nowhere close to the destruction caused by US military tech.
Once I first learned about compound interest I asked myself why everyone wasn't rich. Norway doing what it did with much of its oil wealth is one of the only examples I see of a society doing this successfully on a large scale by transferring the oil wealth into diversified investments with likelihood for long term return on a large scale. It is extremely impressive but almost unheard of globally aside from among a small section of very wealthy individuals and groups, the "In" group if you will. It's quite sad how things almost always turn out in comparison to what could be.
It might even be possible for Norway to just live off the interest of that wealth fund in the future at this rate, which would be interesting to see on a societal scale. it is substantially larger than Norways' current GDP and still growing rapidly. Probably this would be diastrous for a country though because it would be destroying its productivity levels and output, a country can't just "leech" if you will like some peope can off the economy and hope to remain powerful.
Isn't Collier's name an English name? So pronounced Colly-ER (which has an old meaning, like Smith: a coal-miner)
I don't know him personally, so can't confirm this, but I do know people in UK and Ireland with the name Collier, and they pronounce the R
Not entirely sure. But, I listed to a British journalist refer to him like this. Collier didn't interrupt that person. So, this is my best guess.
@@MoneyMacro CF "keeping up appearances" (old sitcom) and Mrs Hyacinth Bucket :)
It's colli-ER he's from Sheffield.
This explains why my country, Nigeria, especially the northern muslim majority regions, is currently facing so much instability.
Jup. And it also explains why they slaughterd 50 christians today.
0:25: 💰 Afghanistan's economy is trapped in poverty despite its abundance of natural resources.
4:10: 🌍 Afghanistan's landlocked location presents challenges for economic development, but there are ways to overcome them.
8:25: 🌍 The video discusses how Afghanistan's poverty and natural resource abundance contribute to its conflict trap.
12:53: 🔑 Afghanistan can avoid the resource trap by avoiding the final trap of bad governance.
16:41: 🇦🇫 Afghanistan's conflict and bad governance traps, worsened by the presence of natural resources, have kept the country poor, but there is a small chance for it to escape.
Recap by Tammy AI
Wow you are in streak. We have been fed.
No mention of culture and religion? Economy is actually dependent of the prevalent mode of thinking in a given society. When people care more about salvation and afterlife than about earthly existence, when their behaviour is regulated by divine decrees rather than by logical reasoning and experience, when their motivation is to please God rather that to seek ordinary happiness - then such a society does not value material comforts and economic development.
For many Afghans the Western model of economic and social development means vulgar materialism, moral degradation and permanent strife. Non-believers live in Dar al-Harb while Muslims live in Dar al-Islam and that's what really matters, according to Muslims.
Bit of a personal question, but which part from the Netherlands are you from? Your English accent seems slightly different than the typical Dutch guy
Drenthe originally
Why should people want to destroy their environment to make a few rich in the USA and UK anyway?
7:15 shows us more of your cat! What's his name? 🤗
His stagename is macrocat
I approve 👌
Norway and Canada have avoided the Paradox of Plenty because they developed their democracy and institutions before their resource economies
A question avoided is whether living in a rich country is necessarily desirable. To me it seems like countries like Afghanistan to a large part consist of small tribal units that are poor but still self sustained within these smaller units and not dependant on import or being part of a bigger system or a monetary economy whatsoever. Economic growth could be a threat to the traditional way of life that seems to have strong support in the rural parts of the country. The problem with ethnic diversity and the conflict trap is more of an aspect of a clash of differnt types of societie; local governance versus centralization etc.
Thing with uuman nature is, even when living better, it won't fulfil you, as the expectation is always greater than the achievement.
@@wawaweewa9159 Sure thing but it is a different topic which has more to do with psychology.
When your country is known as the "Graveyard of Empires," you know it's pretty bad...
Please make another videos about poor countries development
But Venezuela's resource curse is not of Dutch disease, rather it's that by having such an "apparently" free, out-of-thin-air money source, their politicians can easily use them to co-opt the whole political system and civil society. Free money incentivices desires of absolite control of the country by the ruling party.
Yes. It interacts with the bad governance curse
12:45 After what has happened to them in the recent past, do you think the Taliban is going to be eager to dodge the Dutch Disease using foreign currency reserves anytime soon? 🤔
I am surprised that there is no reference to demographics. With a few exceptions like Saudi Arabia, there are very few examples of countries doing well without a demographic transition. We don't really know the growth rate of the population, but it is probably high. Until the dependency rate comes down, not much will happen. Afghanistan has the added disadvantage of largely marginalizing 50% of the population. I don't think the access to the sea is the main problem.
Why Egypt is still poor? If you can produce an episode about that, it will be really great
7:30 I encourage people to really investigate those unpopular land reforms and see how good intentions poorly executed against the will of the population can be a missetep that throws the entire way of life of a country into the toilet for generations.
"good intentions" when it comes to empire has always been cited. The British had " good intentions", the Romans had " good intentions". When it comes to these countries, a myth surrounding good intentions always crops up, regardless of the actual empirical reality.
Ah man I was only on season 2 of Afghanistan. Couldn't at least drop a spoiler alert?
When will people learn that natural resources do NOT create4 wealth. If resources were the key, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Venezuela and Congo would be filthy rich. Conversely, Costa Rica, Japan, Switzerland and Korea would be dirt poor. The key is (and always has been) human capital - education, health care, government stability, equal access regardless of race, tribe or gender, free markets, an emphasis on quality control, safety nets, etc Afghanistan is deficient in every single category.
bombing made it move forward from 1970 to 2050.
All of their foreign reserves are frozen, what to you expect? DONT HOLD US DOLLARS
You need US dollars in order to make international transactions (Euros work too for the most part). I mean try to buy specialized equipment from say a German company using Congolese francs for example. Foreign reserves are necesarry, which is why Sri Lanka's currently in such a bind. They're out of foreign currency reserves and nobody wants their money due to their awfull economic situation which means they can barely buy foreign products. I believe Iran is selling a limited amount of oil to them in exchange for tea leaves, but such barter trade is not gonna cut it when it comes to the entire economy. The real lesson and that's the one Russia learned the hard way is to not keep foreign reserves currencies in foreign countries when you're planning on pissing the nation keeping those reserves off. Either sell them off or withdraw them before they can be frozen or seized.
"paradox of plenty" being a poverty trap is a weird way to say capitalism and colonialism.
Next video could be on a country that seems to be trapped in the middle income tier forever: Brazil.
A decade of conflict is an understatement, that region have been fighting for a millennia at least..
I don't think Netherlands is a very good example of a resource curse,, the oil din't help but this country is still rich by all metrics. DRC (Zaire) and Venezuela are much better examples.
A disappointing part of this video is that there isn't a discussion of the results of sanctions or seizing government reserves. Yes, all of these other factors are important to consider, but without considering actions taken by large geopolitical players (in this case the US and EU) we're missing a significant part of the story. None of this is to say that sanctions/reserve seizures are the only problem facing Afghanistan and certainly plenty of countries fail to develop economically even without those constraints, but I would note I can't think of a single country in the world that managed to become a developed country while under US sanctions since the fall of the USSR (this being an important distinction since the existence of an alternate economic bloc in the world gave a broader set of options). And sanctions can really magnify problems in an economy. For instance, both Venezuela and Mexico were both countries that saw significant booms from rising oil prices over the 2000s and faced economic declines when the US fracking boom undercut oil prices. But Mexico with closer ties to the US did not face sanctions and losses were far more limited that the increasingly sanctioned Venezuelan economy. Since Afghanistan does face US sanctions this should increase the pessimistic view of the country's economy going forward even with the major declines in violence and pushes for growth friendly government the Taliban has pursued so far.
Why don't you make a video on how for countries to get out of Chinese debt trap
IQ is one’s natural ability to figure out complex subjects. Afghanistan‘s IQ is 20 points below average and 25 points below those of Japan and east China.