The Real Reason Tadej Pogačar WILL NEVER WIN the Tour de France AGAIN
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- čas přidán 28. 11. 2023
- Tadej Pogacar: two-time Tour champion, Olympic medallist, winner of 5 monuments as well as a bronze medal at the World Championships. With all this looking like a distant memory as Vingegaard prepares to defend his Tour title once again, have Pogacar’s best days at the Tour de France been and gone? Can Tadej Pogacar ever win the Tour de France again?
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He started the season in a great form, he crashed and lost training and came second in TdF, then got his form back. I think he had a fantastic 2023 given the circumstances. I have no doubt he has the capacity to win at least 2 grand tours in the same season. He can win many many more races is because he can suffer so much and can keep going.
Spicy title, bit click-baity, no? No one can predict the future. Greetings from Slovenia, love and respect to Jonas!
Total click bait!
Second thing i got baited into watching on this channel and both resulted in not delivering and substandard analysis.
Switched to no recommends from the channel as i keep irritating myself!
Certainly Pogi, if he's feeling well or possibly even on bad days, still makes the races better, for everyone watching, by being in them. He's just that much of character on the bike and as a person.
Watching the Giro, this hasn't aged well.
that was the giro..tour is different
@@GbabyAllan yeah, I've heard it's in a totally different country!
@@Morpheus0000 there is that as well.. 🤣🤣🤣 July isn't far
We'll see the form of the other galacticos soon enough. Part of the point made about vingegaard was his focus on Grand Tours limited risk and helped him peak in July. Tadej's giro form should be considered compared to others recovering from injury. @GbabyAllan
I think he will... if he focuses on it.
Until his next TdF win, I hope he keeps being the most exciting bike rider, winning monuments, strada bianchis, one week races and grand tours...
Not as long as Vingegaard is competing for it as well
@@CHRoOMAX Vingegaard is born for TDF but Pogacar is the best rider in the world and he can win everything - that's his blessing and curse because Jonas and TJV will bring all they got to TDF and Pogacar will want to win classics/monuments and all one day races as well. Form wise, Jonas will always be a favorite on TDF because Pogacar is a racer and will compete in every race UAE teams let him participate before TDF - not just preparation races for TDF like Dauphine or Basque country. And even now you can see that - he will race Strade Bianchi, Milan-San Remo, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Giro d'Italia before TDF - he's crazy!
I am French and I am so fed up with the tour de France being the only thing that matters. This is so great to see lots of good riders fighting in the classics, spring races etc.... I prefer to see Pogacar win tour of Flanders (even if I would prefer WVA to win!), Liège Bastogne Liège etc. rather than not seeing him until July for his big win. And still I am pretty confident he will win the Tour de France again.
@@oliviernoir6669 And TP still looks like he loves racing his bike!
The performances in the recent Catalunya race (where his preparation included a podium in Milan San Remo) was impressive (4x first places, and a 2nd)... and if anything, he is now ticking off his list of 2024 goals.
If he is able to get a lead in the Giro, and ride the last week on maintenance, it will turn out to be great TdF training!
@@CHRoOMAX Jonas can only dream of winning monuments.. never going to happen.. mark my words ;)
The incomplete preparation TDF 2023 due to the broken wrist should not be underestimated.
If the wrist and lack of preparation was key, shouldn't he be better towards the end of the Tour instead of in the beginning? If his preparation was lacking, he should have ridden into better form. Instead he was pretty good in the beginning but broke down in the end.
@@holmbjerg He was undercooked with his training because of the wrist which is why he faltered in the 3rd week. Still an amazing achievement coming 2nd with a lack of sufficient preparation.
@@holmbjergHe lacked substance in the third week because he did not do a stage race in preparation (a week-long race at least).
And apart from the stage where he lost everything, he still won the last mountain stage in the third week.
@@holmbjergPreparation is very, very different from racing.
Pogi has to be careful in his race schedule. He should focus more on stage racing and not include classics or monuments. The more you race the higher the risk of getting injured.
I believe that if Pogacar focuses on the Tour again he'll win it.
He peaked in the spring and lost twice in a row, I assume he learned his lesson and that the potential competition from developping riders like Ayuso will push him to focus on GT for a couple of years.
If winning worlds is also one of his major goals, peaking for the Tour will serve him well.
Hope he makes the right choices in 2024.
He's heading to the Giro this year, do you consider that a good choice for his changes at a double? Also depends on what kind of Giro we're going to get, if the weather is decent for may standards and he doesn't go for broke as much. (Roglic vs Thomas like) Who knows how he could come out of the Giro.
While Jonas certainly exposed the cracks in Pogi’s armour, I think it’s going to be a different story this year when it’s Jonas vs Pogi vs Roglic vs Evenepoel, rather than the 1 on 1 battles we’ve seen the last few years.
And how good is this going to be? I pray they will all make it to the start line in strong form
Has Roglic used up all his bad luck? Will Bora have the supporting cast to lead him to a TdF victory? 2024 will be a fascinating season to watch no matter what!
By the way, Tadej Pogačar is not any sort of a king, but he is an exceptional sportsman, and deserves to be addressed as such 🙈
He has more right to be called a "king" of his sport than those who inherit such titles because of their so-called noble blood. Get off your knees.
I mean something will go wrong for Vingegaard at the tour eventually, so Pogi will have plenty more chances. Will he ever start the tour as the #1 favourite again? Maybe not. But he'll never be easy to beat
Maybe.. or Maybe he Will do a Lance.
Saving this video for July
I belive he can win it if he is doing the same preparation as Jonas Vingegaard and maybe trying to play the long run instead of going for the many stage wins bc he gets tired and will suffer at the most important week we have seen that plenty of times now
the people saying jonas is unbeatable now probably thought pogi was unbeatable 2 years ago and before that they thought bernal was unbeatable. i also thought novak djokovic was unbeatable vs the current gen on grass but alcaraz beat him in wimbledon (and that wasnt even a hot take by me). not to mention this is pogacar we are speaking of, it was also IMPOSSIBLE for him to win flanders as a TDF winner
Last year he wasnt in perfect form as you know. He crashes hard at Liege-Bastogne-Liege and his preparation for the TdF wasnt very good. This year Vingegaard had a even harder crash, normally we should also see the difference at the TdF. With the other Favorites Evanepoel and Roglic (maybe with his last chance) we can hope for a epic TdF :) Pogacar has dominated the Giro like no other in modern cycling before, lets see if he can do it again. His Team will be even stronger (Adam Yates, Joao Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Marc Soler, Tim Wellens, Nils Politt, Sivakov)!
2024 we’ll see 👽
Tadej: HOLD MY BEER...
Pogacar in 2023 showed that he can go against Vingegaard in the Tour. He dropped vingegaard several times on the finals of climbs and could hang with him on the Tourmalet. He got dropped due to bad preparation. If he's in full focus for the Tour he can just hang with Vingegaard on any climb and outsprint him for bonus seconds. A caveat: he's never had a Grand Tour without at least one quite bad day AND VIngegaard's 3rd week ITT seems surreal. But i truly do think Pog showed extreme climbing levels this year.
Dropped Jonas several times” nah, Jonas was just playing with him up until the TT.
@@alaefarmestatesllc this is literally the single most stupid thing I've ever read in terms of race analysis.
You can also turn this around: Tadej never managed to truly drop Jonas on his favourite climbs, short, steep, explosive... and then gets crushed by Jonas on the long climbs at altitude..
@@gerlachsieders4578 sure, I agree. I think Jonas is just a better grand tour rider. I'm just saying that after 2022 I thought Pog didn't stand a chance. Now I think he does. Even if Jonas is inherently better.
@@alaefarmestatesllc Jonas was definitely not playing around when he was dropped by Pogacar on the Tourmalet stage...
Calling Jonas dry and pragmatic is very unfair. He is a firework compared to team sky and to be honest every other GC rider apart from Pogacar. Yeah he doesn’t attack when he has a three minute lead but why would you? When it’s a lot closer Jonas and jumbo are highly aggressive - look at week 1 & 2 of the 2023 tour. Even 2022 he attacked first on planch and obviously stage 11 while very clever was perhaps the most aggressive GC cycling ever nit to mention him attacking on ventoux in 2021. He may not go for bonus seconds in flat finishes but that’s not his strong suit (it is for pogi) - when the conditions favour him more in even short steep climbs he is an exciting rider to watch.
He’s 25 years old….a bit too soon to make such a bold prediction.
im suspecting he might win it this year. star this message. I'm a Vingagaard fan and jumbo visma fanatic
You bring up good arguments, but i think Jumbo won't give up the Giro to UAE this easy without having Roglic anymore. So they need a pretty good setup. Some of these guys are also needed for the Tour. I think UAE and especially Pogacar does have a pretty good chance this year to ride in both GTs for place 1. And don't forget the gravel-stage in this years TdF, which is in my opinion a big plus for Pogacar. So for me I'm still a Pogiliever :D :D
But in the end we all can't say if both riders or better both teams stay healthy and uninjured, because this can skip the whole situation...
I wouldn't count out Pogacar for the future. He is still a very young rider. I do think he needs to somehow maintain his power and strength but at the same time drop some weight. If Wikipedia is correct, Jonas is 14 lbs. lighter. That is a huge difference on a long steep climb!
Since Tadej is only 25, I say he will win another 2 tdf if he/team decide to concentrate on it on some year!
Pogacar's weakness is he can't ride in hot temperatures. That is the only one. He will excel in the spring classics but he will not do well in the TDF if there are hot mountain stages. Roglic is the opposite, he does well in warm temps but not good in cold. Not sure about Vingo, we haven't seen any weakness yet.
Visma-Lease-A-Bike will be comprimised next Tour on the rouleur front. No Van Hooydonk (made the long kms hard) or WVA (big loss), as the former was forced to retire and the latter is going to the Giro. Making the race hard all throughout the Tour, and not just on the final climb, worked in Vingegaard's favour.
But wout could still do the tour de france we have seen that before in the past
He wants to do olympics and Worlds so I don't think the tour fits those ambition, Giro+vuelta would be a better calendar.@@Znoxz
Don’t sleep on Jumbo. They have personnel to replace Wout and Nathan
The Lego robot from Denmark is soooo boring. At the Giro, Tadje showed real personality and class.
all it will take is one bad day for jonas in the tour and the story will change. in fact, he's been eerily 100% on form last 2 tours, so it's eventually going to come around that something will give and he'll have a bad day. pogi in the last 2 tours, had at least 2 or more bad days, and a broken wrist that wrecked his prep.
I think it comes down to focusing...he obviously has the talent and has proved it.
Is he still in the running for the White Jersey Again. This Young Dude is a beast and super like-able. Helped me with European Geography too, as I had no idea where Slovenia 🇸🇮 was before I watched him destroy the field.
No. Pogi has aged out of the white jersey. He's an old man of 25-yo. 😆
Patrick is a great presenter. But pump the "Boy racer's best days are behind him" brakes. He could win 4 more TDFs and everyone would say they saw it coming.
No Wout this year for Visma. Let’s see how that impacts Visma
I wouldn't right him off so soon at just 26?
Not even. 25!
Pogo will win again I can all guarantee it
I think Pogi could win, he was just very unlucky in the last two years in 2022 he was beat by Jumbo Visma on the importan stages because his team couldn't support him, and this year he failed in the last week because of his lack of fitness , because he missed all his races and couldn't prepare properly, but I think if he concentrates his efforts in the season on the Tour, he can easily win.
Easily win? Youre mad.
@@jeffkuzzen easily win meaning that it well in the realm of possibility and not impossible or close to it of course it is not easy to win the Tour
@@jeffkuzzen he said can easily win, not win easily
UAE is both the stronger team now and Pogacar is the better all around rider. Jonas will not be there and all he does is Grand Tours mean while Tadej has won 6 monuments and counting. Tadej's weakness is hot days not long climbs.
He's won two, and finished second last year after an injury and restricted training rehab that would have had anyone else skip the Tour. Then, he finished second. This year's course suits him better than Jonas, and how will Jonas and Visma do against now Roglic and Tadeg, without Wout and Van Hoydonc to help? UAE could well be the strongest team, with bears Berg on the flats and podium man Adam in the mountains.
he is not finished at the TDF, If he wants to win the TDF that has to be his focus. much like Jonas he has to start his season to peak at the TDF if he wants to beat Jonas and race smarter
IDC if he wins the tour again. He should go win the other two grand tours and stage hunt and be one of these 2 best cyclists ever
He won't be one of the two greatest cyclists ever if he can't beat his main rival in the biggest race of the year ...
You don’t understand cycling
@@BenjaminUbayyed-po9tc You don't understand humans
I guess not
Great video!! Interesting theory…. Only time will tell 😃 also I can stand the nickname “Pogi” 😡
May the arrogant one"s suffering be Legendary.
Amazing script man! My heart really hopes he will win another but my brain tells me if something doesnt happen to Jonas or a big tactical mistake from him Pogi simply doesn't have the watts when they both are at their peak
I'd say the team structure at UAE is making it both harder and easier for him to win. Easier because his team is really strong and can claw back but harder because the teammates are capable of winning in their own right, his own teammate Adam Yates podiumed right behind him so whose to say that he can't be in contention of the GC instead?
With that being said I still think Jonas takes it given his performance over the last three years, it just came down to the team to make the times stick. And, I don't want to say this, ideal conditions for all contestants like no crashing or illnesses.
2024 Visma tour lineup will be a bit weaker than usual, I believe the conditions are met for Tadej to reclaim the Tour.
@@WesternUranusThat's why I said last three years. I've only watched some of the footage from the '21 Tour and Jonas looked strong there with him taking second on GC but had little teamwork then to make the times stick.
He need to improve his race tactics
“Iron fist” is very different to what you meant “iron grip”. 3:16
He will win it. He has the ambitions
Pogi can absolutely win the TdF in ‘24. His wrist injury clearly hampered his training leading up to the tour last summer. If Tadej is in form and has support from his team, he is the favorite. JV is also weakened with Primoz joining bora. I think Pog will be laser-focused on the tour, as will Jonas and Roglic. Should be a joy to watch.
Of course he can win again. I think Jumbo-Visma’s domestiques make a huge difference giving them the advantage. The key will be if UAE can, as a team, match Jumbo, or if in future Pogi moves to another team like Ineos.
He was winning in Feb last year which is pretty pointless. He does waste energy. What's worrying is that Jonus has dropped him at Tour and UAE race which is Pogs back yard. Unless Pog loses more weight then it's going to be tricky in the high mountains.
At 25 years of age, Pogi might not yet be over the hill. If he avoids injury and illness, I expect he'll win the 2024 Tour de France.
He can , ofcorce he can , if winge has just a little problems in preb he could be beaten , it all comes down to week three, winge is a monster in indurence, poggi have to imrove in week 3 , and he wil win still the two best in 3 years amazing
He's bigger than the tdf
The video is actually quite good but the title is truly unnecessarily clickbait-y. Should've stuck with what I assume was the working title we can see on the slides in the video there.
Never tought Jonas might crash?...Who will win than?
I would like one more Jonas vs. Pogi TdF victory (one without caveats) before declaring Pogi done.
The caveat would be poor weather in the mountains ! suddenly game on
@@paulwebster4499 I was thinking more about caveats like breaking a wrist in Tour prep, but you are right, a lot of game day factors can also influence the standings. Not sure if Jonas is really vulnerable in that regard though.
@@stoempert Pog excels in poor weather maybe more than in the heat
I feel like for us fans, its more exciting watching Tadej go for stages or one day races than overall grand tour wins.
Talent wise UAE and Visma have awesome teams but tactic wise visma is far superior. In order to win another tdf pogi needs the whole team step up as a unit and help him to win.
All things being equal and no one having any misfortunes, crashes, illnesses... Pogi can have perfect form and he won't beat Jonas in his perfect form. The third week will always tell.
I agree with many things you say, but I would not be so hard on Pogacar. First, he suffered a serious injury which forced him off the bike before the Tour. Second, Vingo (also a total class act) also benefitted from extraordinary team support from Kuss, Van Aert and Kelderman & Co, which Pogacar did not have. Jumbo's repeated attacks meant that Poga had to burn (too) many extra matches, and ultimately paid for it. Third, Poga not only wants to win the Tour, but also Classics/one day races. That means he does not aim for a single peak in July like Vingegaard but multiple peaks, which are much harder to achieve. Having said that both are absolute class acts -- and Vingegaard seems to have become slightly better still on the very long climbs. Looking forward to the 2024 TdF. Cheers!
You do know that Vingegaard did have more race days than Pogacar the last few seasons ? And you do know that Vingegaard did already win his first races of the 2023 season in February and that he kept on racing until the end of the Vuelta ?
So I am sorry to say that your view on Vingegaard is not entirely correct, he did race the entire season except in the month of May. Not by coincidence Pogacar did not have planned any race either in the month of May, because Liege-Bastogne-Liege was his last race before the Tour de France anyway. After Liege-Bastogne-Liege Pogacar and his girlfriend did have a holiday planned, and only after that the preparations for this years Tour would have started. So when we break down the numbers we do see that Pogacar didn't mis any training or altitude camp.
When we do again check the numbers and listen to Pogacars his own comments, we do see that Pogacar was never as good as in this years Tour de France. We can all check that data, because most of it is posted online by the teams or riders. He did never before performe this good and produce these amount of watts.
Don't understand me wrong please, I am a huge fan of Pogacar (Like I am a huge fan of 99% of the pro riders), but in Grand Tours Vingegaard has by now proven to be better in the high mountain stages and time trials.
When I read your post it is almost like if you are looking for excuses. But Pogacar does not need that, he's a great rider and will win many, many more beautiful races. But he will need luck or crash from Vingegaard if he wants to beat our Danish friend in a Grand Tour. ✌
@@swissbiggy don't "be sorry" (you sound a bit pretentious mr "biggy" lol, you must be a vip in switzerland ). I simply stated #3 facts above (it's a fact Pogacar did miss training intensity w/ broken wrist). Of course Vingegaard was superior at the TdF and Poga cracked on stage #17; he had an ideal preparation to the TdF peak, was backed by a stronger team and certainly did not take the risks that Pogacar did (by racing to win classics @ full gas). A wise choice that paid off. Objectively, Vingegard is deservedly the favorite to win next year's tdf. But the number race days in this case doesn't really change anything, mr "Biggy" (lol). Vingegard raced and won races to peak at the Tour, and was again at an incredible level at the Vuelta. Pogacar won il Lombardia. I actually peg them on a very similar level of absolutely incredible class acts. Have a nice day! : )
Most definitely he will win at least one more, starting with 2024!
Vinge might not be as versatile but he has Wout on his side. Who can win against that?
Not sure wout rides the TDF 2024
he will if the sponsor demands it
He most definitely will
No. Cope and seethe, lol
I don't think he should focus on the Tour. It's much more entertaining to watch him compete for the monuments and other races. He still could win the TDF if Jonas had a bad week or he feels specially strong. He's just too good to focus just on the TDF.
Never say NEVER...SMH
The leadership argument seems a bit far fetched, to be honest. I don’t think any of the guys at UAE come even close to what Pogacar is capable of in a stage race. None of them are able to challenge Jonas for TDF win. Far from it. Yates and Almeida are well established riders and it would be a real shock if they were to be able to match Vingegaard all of a sudden. Ayuso is still young and anything could happen, but his 2023 Vuelta doesn’t indicate he’s got what it takes (yet). I think regarding his own team, Pog is as safe as ever in his leadership role while getting a better helpers each year. Jonas, on the other hand, will have to deal with Kuss’s ambitions. Not that he’s endangering him in any way, it’s just that he will shift his focus from being a domestique to go for other GTs. As will van Aert apparently…
Maybe we all should ask will Jonas be ever winner of tdf? Primož Roglič left the team, Wout Van Aert will skip tdf, Sepp Kuss on winning wings,…
Don't worry Pogi will win the tour again.
I would say with an accident free run he can and I hope will win again.
this did not age well
Pogi won’t beat Jonas at the tour if he continues to do all those classics.
Haha,he beat Jonas only in winter, Paris-Nice..was so good..full ,Pogi-the G.O.A.T.!
I cannot fathom how anyone could doubt that Pogi will win more Tours de France.
Predictions like this in cycling are ridiculous. Worse, they’re ignorant of the sport’s history - I suppose if YT existed in 1950 you’d have been saying Coppi was done.
Yes, he will
Nobody really needs to win it more than once though, do they? Theres so many other races to focus on and add to his palmares and he's already banked enough loot to retire from cycling happy. He races for the joy.
He will win!
Mate I know you're Danish, but never speak ill of Poggi.
The Zone 2 load you've to do 5 weeks before the tour is 5 hours a day in the morning. He couldn't for the arm. He came 2nd in the tour, we a huge margin to the third one.
The narrator is Ewan and not danish plus a big Pogacar fan :P
@@thecyclingdane still the narrator is reading your script in the end bc he gets paid for it xD Love both riders, such a great rivalry
Pojo will win another TDF. He just has to stay patient and pt go after every stage win.
He will win Tour many more times!!!
I definitely think Pogi will will another TDF. Jonas is the best GT rider in the world, but Pogi is very clearly the second best. It is not guaranteed that Jonas is gonna be in sublime form every july from now on. And even if he is in great form, it is no guarantee that he takes several minutes on the few big mountain finishes. However, it IS pretty much guaranteed that Pogi will take a bit of time on Jonas on the not-so-big mountain finishes. No basically, the recipe for Pogi is to ride conservatively on the really hard mountain stages (which there are usually only a couple of) to try to hang with Jonas on GC. Crucially he should REFRAIN from trying to follow Jonas when Jonas does his patented massive 4-5k out attack on a massive mountain finish. NOBODY can follow Jonas on those climbs and if you try you CRACK hard. But Pogi only loses 3+ minutes if he CRACKS. If he goes at his own pace - probably with the rest of the favourites - instead of following Jonas, he can probably minimize his losses. Losing like 40-60 seconds to Jonas on a massive mountain finish is totally acceptable and doable and means that Pogi is still within shot of winning the tour.
Pogacar likes to sprint to much for his own good.
If he stops training these efforts his threshold will improve and he can get the better of Vingegaard on all terrain.
I think yor right , but can poggi hold him self? I agree thats the way .PS im danish so I Hope ofcorce for vinge , but should he never win again he Will stil be the champ thath stopped poggi for some years ❤
Facts and nonsens guys !! What do you gonna write if pogacar wins the tour in 2024 ??
By saying Tadej Pogačar WILL NEVER WIN TOUR DE FRANCE is unrealistic to say at the very begining of this story. For those knowing a little bit more on this sport, it would be better to say never say never 😂
He needs a new diet regime. He lost on power while jonas has long lasting power
C'mon, Vingo can't even win a Tour of Croatia.
You are wrong. Pogo will win at least 2 more TdF.
Is there a false reason?
Sure! A bird pooped on my sholder today, therefore Pogi will never win TDF again. I dont think that is real, do you?
Sensational hornswoggle. Projections are fun; predictions less credible.
Vingegaard did not win TDF alone, minus WVA he wouldn’t have won TDF, TJV is lucky WVA is a team player, if UEA has as strong roster as TJV, UEA would be unbeatable.
In 24 tdf Jonas will have two problems.....Tadej and Primož....and both are from Slovenia....dont forget that!
Tadej will have 3 problems ... and they are from Slovenia, Belgium and Denmark. Don't forget that!
Very hot take..
He will take no less then 5 titles more
YES he will win TDF again.
He will win the 24 edition by 5 minutes 😂
he will
Ridiculous
The real reason: Jonas Vingegaard
Not buyin' it...IF Tadej uses good strategy and has strong enough support from his team's, as noted, impressive talent, and that's the way it should be, he will beat Jonas. Last year was a bit fluky due to his injury at LBL.
UAE has never had good strategy. Mauro Gianetti is not qualified for his job and Pogi doesn't have tactical prowess and often makes the wrong move. He often uses energy resources in the beginning and is poor in the end - the 3rd week. He needs to change his mindset and not wear himself down and be very conservative and do very little in the beginning of the race.
@@holmbjerg Makes sense!
man, it's simple, joans is just better on climbs,and has better recovery times than him
@@frames_ap Your explanation is simple, but reality is never simple.
And the year previous? Btw if you remember in this year your kuss got dropped before Yates every time, so it was always a 1vs2 for Jonas. And this thing that in the 2022 tdf he won just because of the team it’s bullshit for 2 reasons: every time kuss or roglic attacked pogi, Jonas was sprinting too, if the gradient where low Also pogi was gaining form the tow of kuss and roglic. And at gradients like 8% the tow Is Non-existent. So what the fuck we’re talking about?
The difference between pog and Eddie mercx .. Eddie would never give up, and always fights to the end 👊
pogacar got dismantled by tjv twice in a row.
kuss will win the tour before pogacar wins another.
and kuss will not win the tour unless vingegaard is unavailable.