War in Ukraine: Tracking the fighting with satellites
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- čas přidán 18. 06. 2023
- With Ukraine’s counter-offensive shrouded in secrecy and Russian-controlled territory impenetrable, can satellite data help you see into a war zone? The Economist’s Senior data journalist, Sondre Ulvund Solstad, breaks down how he uses fires to track the fighting.
00:51 - Our model explained
02:28 - Ukraine Fire Tracker
Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter: econ.st/3QAawvI
To see our Ukraine fires tracker: econ.st/46cK6sA
For our latest Ukraine coverage: econ.st/3OXHjNJ
How satellite data reveals the vast extent of fighting: econ.st/46dsY5G
Satellite data shows Ukraine’s forces are testing Russia’s defences: econ.st/3CCOSlk
Ukrainian advances on Donetsk and Zaporizhia can be seen from space: econ.st/3CBoE2E
This is a great example of how Data Science can be applied to find patterns and it's gratifying to see that The Economist has employed at least one person who can program a model to do something like this.
I'd be interested to know what algorithms Solstad used to train his data and what variables were important in revealing the patterns that he found. There should also have been more discussion about the limitations of such approaches. For example, tracking fires helps identify where fighting is probably occurring but presumably cannot reveal which side is responsible for them.
If you're suggesting that there is fighting going on but only one side is present then thank you for the laugh.
You don't need a satellite to determine that Russian policies starting even as early as the Czars imperial ambitions, then taken to the point of the madness and genocide perpetrated by Stalin, and now revived and exploited by pootin and his kleptocracy, are responsible for the fighting in Ukraine today.
@@billcarruth8122 I'm saying that you can't tell which side is responsible for a particular fire.
Fires also don't necessarily mean there's fighting nearby, as they're caused by explosions, such as grenades and mortars, but also artillery and missiles...
It really is not a science.
@@colinjames2469 It's analytics more than science, but that doesn't mean it isn't useful.
Very interesting video... explains applied data analytics and goes to the point. Well done. Congrats from Spain.
Rip ukranina - THOUGHT FIRES WERE JUSTB 9N FRONT LINE BUT NO OIITS SPREA ALL OVER UKRANINA, ukranina is burning alive
gloria to russia, cheers from spain
How sad that you believe the Rothschild version of events. How pathetic and sad.
A family security
Brilliant. A great example of why The Economist subscription is worthwhile. I could do without the "be very afraid" music background however.
The analysis looks impressive.
This is exactly what I expect from the economist. Well done.
Thanks for the amazing work.
nice work Solstad !
Scotland*
Awesome. Would love to see more content like this.
Great work!
Excellent. Well done.
As an R user. I'm proud of what we can achieve.
Amazing
It is more serious than we thought
Very interesting!
It's great you are doing this, but there has been an extended network if people doing this and more for a couple of years.
They geolocate photos of explosions etc match them to satellite images and mark them on a map. They also use satellite fire data, but as the satellite only passes over twice a day it is not sufficient in itself. They have networked data so that they know not just where the Russians have military units, but also the names of those units as well as whether they are armour, troops of whatever. They have all of the Russian defences on the map too.
They support Ukraine so they don't map Ukraine's military stuff except for the advances and territory regained.
They delay their updates by two days so that the information is of no use to Russia. They also do not publish information until it is corroborated by a few sources.
They have a few hundred able people running the system and the public and soldiers on the frontline submit information to them too. Everything is carefully verified. This sort of networking is powerful compared to one super able chap with fire data and some satellite imagery.
It's great you are doing this, but I'm afraid some of the independent news outlets are way ahead.
I write this as an Economist Magazine subscriber.
The map end of the Network is the Deep State Map.
The discussions and announcements are on Telegram.
There are a couple of You Tube channels which are reliable and who pull it all together daily citing sources.
Sadly there are so many more channels which distort the data for propaganda reasons.
Caveat videntium.
ukrnain is burning- RIP
Yep and they have been doing a way way way better job than this guy too
Interesting topic
Amazing
Awesome x
Don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Awesome, awesome!
Superb, but please be very careful about disseminating information.
constate désormais chaque jour. Parfois ce sont les enseignes elles-mêmes qui renoncent à mettre en vente certains produits, devenus trop chers.En cause, le manque de personnel dans les entrepôts et chez les transporteurs. Les délais de livraison s'allongent, provoquant les trous dans les rayons
Brilliant, and long overdue...thanks for providing this information!
Sondre, can you get hold of the missile trajectory data from Africa's Kyiv visit. It would help tune those guys if the would be impact sites were near them and all over the internet. :)
Well,even if the missiles hit near the African delegates, how would it change things?
Wow, very interesting.
In Russia, we don’t support Putin’s totalitarian regime. Peace for everyone and don’t blame us.
I don't blame you. But would you be willing to see Russian troops to leave the whole of Ukraine to pay for their Crimes. To Pay reparations to Ukraine for the damage caused. Return all forcibly detained and deported Ukrainians back home. Allow Ukraine to join NATO to ensure their security. And to hand over all war criminals to the haigh for prosecution. Ukrainians want justice as well as peace.
@@unmissable I don’t mind at all. Fully agree with u.
Russia should be in Eu and NATO too with Belarus. We just need new, democratic leader like Navalny or Katz.
@@alexbayer2365что ты за бред несёшь, навальный ничего хорошего не сделает. в данный момент кандидата лучше путина нет
@@alexbayer2365 your a friend of ukraine. Let's hope the war ends soon. And that the russian political prisoners will be freed and the rights of all russians will be restored.
@@unmissable you really think that it's okay to commit a genocide and then demand reparations from it's victims? Are you okay?
excellent work
Grim Trigger
Not.
This is a great accessory for analysis of the war
"This methodological overview shows the clear potential for a developmental path toward the incremental integration of electronic and other resources toward an understanding of military asset deployment in conflict situations.
"Further research is needed." 😂🤦♂🥴
Interesting. Great video.
What is the IDE, that he is using?
oh, I see its RStudio, nevermind :)
Wait, so what is the system telling new?
Wow, this guy is smart…..
I like the innovative approach, but your conclusion is troubling. How do you conclude from that data that Ukrainian army is pushing forward? There were intense fires in and around Kiev and Bakhmut, but that didn't tell is about Russian forces moving forward...
I also see this as not really any more useful than the information that comes out in general. We know there is fighting along the front lines and heavy artillery fire. We know where the front line is. Ukraine reports which villages have been freed etc. And with all this uncertainty in the data, I dont really see the point of it to be honest. You can never use it for news coverage as it is uncertain what kind of fire it is and what is going on besides it in the area. Also, leave Ukraine to it, dont create ways of tracking the war that could be of help to Russia.
@@bingoberra18 Aye :/
Awesome analysis. Russia looks like they are trying to lose
Are you sure this info doesn't damage Ukraine's chances?
GIS at it's best
Ukraine need air support and F-22.
we are all economist, and alot of us seniors, so just share without the tout
Took a quick look at that screenshot of his code. That's dense AF.
So, basically what we already know. Thanks.
en this nothing hurts my heart more this war an these rife are also killing their resourses
😂 thanks to our dear civilized westerners, their hate towards slavs and being afraid 😨 of them resulting in whatever we have now
Weeellllllllllll they did say ssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh........ but hey...
Clever
Hey there the economist,
Unfortunately this video suggests that your data Analyst were the first to employ this open source method.
This is however incorrect, satellite data including the Plattform discussed here were part of the military analytical discussion since the very beginning and even before the conflict.
Therefore this analyst has by no means invented this method, more developed some competetive advantage, as suggested here.
Additionally the method has some very clear restrictions, making this piece a great story - but nothing more!
Please be more transparent with your sources and other researchers ideas in the future.
Hah Hah!!! Thats an R console ... I love it I knew it ... and there is GGsave in the corner ... Love it
Selon Carl von Clausewitz, la défense est la forme forte de la guerre; ce qui veut dire que, dans cette première phase de la guerre, les Russes sont favorisés.
Ajoutons que, dans une guerre où tout le monde sait ce que tout le monde fait (à cause des satellites) et où les mouvements de tanks et d'infanterie sont difficiles à cause des mitrailleuses, des RPG, de l'artillerie, des drônes et des champs de mines, le temps joue en faveur des Russes.
Le rapport des populations Russie/Ukraine favorise encore la Russie de même que le rapport des émigrés qui sont beaucoup plus nombreux en Ukraine qu'en Russie.
Le fait que la quasi totalité des destructions sont faites en Ukraine et ce, des deux côtés, favorise encore les Russes, surtout à long terme.
Enfin, notons que la logistique favorise aussi la Russie compte tenu de l'extrême proximité de l'Ukraine pour la Russie et de l'extrême éloignement des USA.
Le seul élément qui favorise l'Ukraine est du côté des armes qui sont de meilleure qualité en Ukraine qu'en Russie. Cet avantage est cependant tempéré par l'extrême diversité des armements envoyés en Ukraine.
Conclusion: cette guerre est mal partie pour l'Ukraine, surtout si on considère qu'une immense crise économique est sur le point de tous nous tomber dessus. Or, avec la crise, les opinions publiques occidentales vont demander de façon sans cesse plus insistante qu'on mette fin aux gaspillages de guerre, l'argent étant nécessaire ailleurs.
That’s it?
genius
Why isn’t this top secret info for Ukrainian. Why make it public?
So big deal, you proven that there's a war going on. You have no idea what's being hit or why it's being hit. The most you can do is use the information to support other means of geolocating events.
Tôi xin bày tỏ lòng biết ơn những nhà khoa học của thế giới, đặc biệt là của mỹ quốc và những nước tiên tiến, đã đem văn minh của khoa học để xây dựng và bảo vệ thế giới. ❤
Wow. There are already many mappers way way way ahead of this guy and the economist. They have been using the exact same data way from the start of the war, doing the exact same thing better. This guy has just been copying what they have been doing for over a year. Some of the systems can and do look through clouds and can distinguish between fire and artillery fire.
What’s with the weird shots and editing of this guy?
я все ждал когда же начнут рекламировать курсы по обучению на data science, не дождался. Российские коллаборанты, осевшие на дальних берегах, берите пример как подводку к рекламе своей делать)
Сюжет ни о чем.
Wir kämpfen bis zum letzten ukrainischen Soldaten!
After that send some poallacks, german and other euro rats pls everyone is welcome 😂
Ehm, are you all sure that those type of data are non endangering the defending troops ?
So sad to see, hope this war ends soon
America !s the CULPR!T
@travishatch
Sadly Joe wants war and play with people mind to drive them to the lowest level were we will see each other as enemies and blaming each other then total war will break out, the horror scenario of united state and Russia be at war will become a reality, hopefully won't get that far then it will get worse for us all
R studio!!!
Are you using leaflet ?
Clouds the biggest enemy of this system, and this part of the world has a lot of clouds.
Anyone else think he looks like Paul Banks from Interpol?
Dayı ne diyorsun acaba 😢bir de anlasak
Sounds b/s. Is it unsupervised learning? Or supervised? If supervised, what is dependent variable? And why not just look at satellite pictures to identify real-time fires? Some buzz words for the gullible …
This approach has been used by other sources since September of 2022 for the same purposes. To imply this was pioneered by this individual or this news source is very disingenuous.
This was used by youtubers last year!
As much as I appreciate the analytics, this report favors Russians. This birds eye view of the couter-offensive or the deployment has to be as much secretive as possible. Although a visualization may be few days old, it is still relevant. These tanks can not move around that fast. Please don't help the Russians. Thank you
So agree with this assessment. Great to see but might favor one side over the other. However I am sure the Russians or Ukrainians know where they are fighting each other, hopefully
This report may be an Ukrainian misinformation campaign. Russia dos not count on it.
@techaddict4418 I agree they both are well equipped, but more information the better as you know, irrespective of the usefulness. More the hush hush of the deployment is better for Ukraine. Russia is worried about the surprise attack by Ukrainians
It takes Russians minutes to radio in reports of coming under fire. Your concern is unnecessary.
Apparently beyond Dumpty's comprehension.......
😢
So all this ( but not new )to "suggest" that Ukrainians are advancing.... very straightforward conclusion...lets see them if you publish it in the magazine 😂
Ukraine about to hire this guy
Please, fix your map. There is one "s" in Odesa. That's how the name of the city is spelled in Ukrainian and every time Russian rockets attack the city, they try to add the second "s".
If you discover more war related fires since 5ths of may, couldn't they be artificially increased due to significant drier conditions.
His model takes into account prior "normal" years precisely to eliminate this type of noise. So most likely the increased error due to dryer weather would be marginal.
@@HadrienLBB I did take it into account. He just observes the difference. None-the-less the weather can explain the increase in the difference.
wouldn't it have been better to share this with the allied forces before posting it on CZcams?
There's nothing to share. CZcamsrs have been monitoring satellite fire data to chart rocket and artillery strikes since the beginning of the war. This guy did not invent this. He may have worked out his own way of processing the data,, but I and millions of others have been privy to satellite fire data all along. This is a totally BS video.
A biased system towards Ukraine means western countries
The development of Western countries is the isolation of Russia.
Complete isolation of Russia and everything Russian. And also the isolation of countries that support Russia.!!!!!
You should have also looked within Russia and see which parts are burning 😅.
Very impresssive. I wonder if you are really the first to do this, or if this is actually already fed into the Palantir stack that Ukraine has
Firms has been used since day 1 of the war, this kid is not who came up with it.
Not him ..
A satellite (or artificial satellite) is an object intentionally placed into orbit around a celestial body.
Satellites have a variety of uses, including communication relay, weather forecasting, navigation (GPS), broadcasting, scientific research, and Earth observation.
Additional military uses are reconnaissance, early warning, signals intelligence and, potentially, weapon delivery.
Other satellites include the final rocket stages that placed satellites in orbit and formerly useful satellites that are now defunct.
Except for passive satellites, most satellites have an electricity generation system for equipment on board, such as solar panels or radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs).
Most satellites also have a method of communication to ground stations, called transponders.
Many satellites use a standardized bus to save cost and work, the most popular of which is small CubeSats.
Similar satellites can work together as a group, forming constellations.
Because of the high launch cost to space, satellites are designed to be as lightweight and robust as possible.
Most communication satellites are radio relay stations in orbit and carry dozens of transponders, each with a bandwidth of tens of megahertz.
Satellites are placed from the surface to orbit by launch vehicles, high enough to avoid orbital decay by the atmosphere.
Satellites can then change or maintain the orbit by propulsion, usually by chemical or ion thrusters.
As of 2018, about 90% of satellites orbiting Earth were in low Earth orbit or geostationary orbit; geostationary means the satellites stay still in the sky.
Some imaging satellites chose a Sun-synchronous orbit because they can scan the entire globe with similar lighting.
As the number of satellites and space debris around Earth increases, the threat of collision has become more severe.
A small number of satellites orbit other bodies (such as the Moon, Mars, and the Sun) or many bodies at once (two for a halo orbit, three for a Lissajous orbit).
Earth observation satellites gather information for reconnaissance, mapping, monitoring the weather, ocean, forest, etc.
Space telescopes take advantage of outer space's near perfect vacuum to observe objects with the entire electromagnetic spectrum.
Because satellites can see a large portion of the Earth at once, communications satellites can relay information to remote places.
The signal delay from satellites and their orbit's predictability are used in satellite navigation systems, such as GPS.
Space probes are satellites designed for robotic space exploration outside of Earth, and space stations are in essence crewed satellites.
The first artificial satellite to be launched into the Earth's orbit was the Soviet Union's Sputnik 1, on 4 October 1957.
As of April 2022, there were 5,465 operational satellites in Earth orbit, of which 3,433 belong to the United States (2,992 commercial), 541 belong to China, 172 belong to Russia, and 1,319 belong to other nations.
Wars are sadly declared by the rich for poor to suffer
Only rich to declare this war is Putin.
Excellent work! - Do you mind taking 5 to tell Canada that their country is on fire?
The title of this video should have been "Smug and accredited Institutional Journalist with many degrees and award discovers a website that every war enthusiast on twitter has been using since day 1 of the war and feels really smart"
When an "expert" spends all their time talking about methodology, you know the answer is "I don't have a clue. Plus or minus 50%. Either way. Small clues bundled into large, see footnote three for definition of `clue.'"
biased on the ukranian side, you can clearly tell the russian army is pushing forward and inside Ukrainian territory using this same info, Americans, smh.
making money off the war....
The Wokenomist.
Why only one side on this war 😂 what kind of war is this
a kid playing with his toys, but not entirely worthless...
We are not except rassian aggration by Ukraine
👎👎
A message to the future generations never make russia feel threatened
the difference between "looking dangerous" and "being dangerous".Russia
describes military doctrine as defensive military doctrine. With regard
to nuclear weapons specifically, Russia reserves the right to use
nuclear weapons: in response to the use of nuclear and other types of
weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies,in case of
aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the
very existence of the state is threatened
How do Russian nuclear weapons compare to the rest of the world?
Russia - 6,257
America 5,550
UK - 225
France - 290
China - 350
Israel - 90
Pakistan - 165
India - 156
North Korea - 40
A message to the future Russian generations: get rid of the government of thieves and dictators that think that the world is their playground. And don't mess with nuclear toys. They usually backfire.
Russia can't even maintain their tanks which is why they trot out WW2 relics. Maintaining the nuclear arsenal costs hundreds of millions and they haven't done it. Not to mention they're already getting rinsed vs western weapons when they're the larger army. Just imagine what the USA or UK army would do to them.....
Boring, added nothing
So the fire told you Ukraine is advancing 😅😅😅
Ro k on Putin and Russo 🍀🍀🍀🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🍀🇷🇺☘️🏁🏁🏁🏁
Want war, Ukraine got what they deserved
Video ai lol