UFC FIGHT NIGHT: NICOLAU VS PEREZ FULL CARD PREDICTIONS | BREAKDOWN
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- čas přidán 20. 05. 2024
- MATHEUS NICOLAU VS ALEX PEREZ IS THE MAIN EVENT FOR THIS UFC FIGHT NIGHT, HERE'S MY FULL CARD BREAKDOWN AND PREDICTIONS, WHO YA GOT? #moneycity
MoneyCity Bet Package: 4 ufc cards, full card value props, fighter percentages & discord! / ufcga
(0:00) - Intro
(0:32) - UFC 300 betting recap
(04:02) - Machete vs Gabriel Benitez
(05:26) - Ivana Petrovic vs Na Liang
(06:42) - Marnic Mann vs Ketlen Souza
(08:08) - Don'Tale Mayes vs Caio Machado
(09:30) - Austin Hubbard vs Michal Figlak
(12:00) - Rani Yahya vs Victor Henry
(13:45) - Tim Means vs Uros Medic
(15:06) - Jonathan Pearce vs David Onama
(17:30) - Austen Lane vs Jhonata Diniz
(18:30) - Ariane Lipski vs Karine Silva
(20:20) - Ryan Spann vs Bogdan Guskov
(22:30) - Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez - Sport
(CHANGED PREDICTIONS) MoneyCity Bet Package: 4 ufc cards, full card value props, fighter percentages & discord! www.patreon.com/UFCGA
(2 bets at the moment, more to come)
Typically, I don’t change my predictions-I usually stick with my initial gut instinct on these fights every week. However, I'm going to try a new tactic and check my success rate over the next few cards. Thursdays and Fridays are days when I do extra tape study, and I'm second-guessing a few of my initial predictions. Therefore, I'm going to change them, and we'll see how successful these revised predictions turn out to be. These are the fights i’m changing my prediction on.
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Marnic Mann vs Ketlen Souza. - I never thought I'd say, "I'm picking Marnic Mann to win a fight," but here I am saying it. The moneyline for Marnic Mann is reaching around +300, and historically, betting on large odds in women's MMA has proven to be a long-term losing strategy. Marnic isn't a great striker; her game is all about taking her opponent to the mat and using her physicality. At +300 it’s potentially the better risk to reward.
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Don’Tale Mayes vs Caio Machado. -
Although i’m changing my prediction to Caio Machado I still believe this fight is a coin-flip. Don’Tale has more experience but he’s never really evolved much as a fighter, Caio’s cardio was pretty shocking against Mick Parkin in his debut, if he manages his energy better in this fight I could see him winning a close decision based on just being more impressive to the judges. Don’Tale does a lot of questionable things like jump kicks etc, he’s not an elite Muay Thai striker or pure boxer, if we see any improvements from Caio in this fight he’s potentially the right side.
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Tim Means vs Uros Medic. - I'm going to give Uros Medic the benefit of the doubt, even at -300. Some of his performances have been questionable-for example, the way Jalin Turner easily bullied him. However, Jalin Turner is a dangerous fighter, he just has terrible takedown defence. Against Matt Semelsberger, Medic was slow to start, and more recently, he was rag-dolled by Orolbai.
That being said, Tim Means is 40 years old, so he probably won’t be fast enough with his strikes to walk down Medic like Turner did. He also doesn't have the wrestling skills of Orolbai. After listening to Tim Means' MMA Junkie interview, I noticed a significant difference in fight mentality between the two fighters. Reassessing the fight, I'm leaning toward the younger, faster fighter, which is Uros Medic.
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Ryan Spann vs Bogdan Guskov
I'm not super confident that my revised prediction will be successful, but I'm going to give Ryan Spann the benefit of the doubt as well. He has fought much stronger competition-fighters whose abilities are far above Bogdan Guskov's current level. There's a high probability this fight won't go the distance; it likely won't even go over 1.5 rounds. It’s a matter of kill or be killed. Ryan Spann needs to end his current two-fight losing streak, and I believe he can do so by showcasing his experience. His guillotine chokes have always been lethal, so if he catches Guskov early, he might finish the fight with a neck attack. This one is a straightforward kill or be killed situation, and Ryan Spann needs to show his technical & experience advantage.
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Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez. - Alex Perez recently lost a close decision to Muhammed Mokaev, but his performance was at a pretty decent level. There are positives he can take from that fight into this main event. His grappling held up well against Mokaev, and his boxing looked sharp enough to force Mokaev to continually change levels. I mentioned in my breakdown on Wednesday that Perez tends to lose when he has a big fight. However, given his recent performance and the fact that Nicolau is returning to the octagon with stunted momentum, I think there's a fair chance Alex Perez could defy the odds this weekend by catching Nicolau at some point during the fight.
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This is a new tactic I will be testing over the next 5/10 ufc cards, if i get enough changed predictions correct I will keep this strategy, if there’s too many losing changed predictions I will go back to keeping my initial reads.
(i’m siding with Llontop to win against Chris Padilla) (short notice)
so the odds changes your pick on the Mann fight, but who would you pick if it was a straight up pick em? who do you actually think wins the fight not based on value? I mean I guess it would be Souza because thats who you went with before the odds swelled to +300...so Ill go with that initial instinct...
@@moby1kanobif that fight was +100/+100, i’d go with ketlen souza, but i think her chances of winning are more like 60-65% -150/-186, at the current line i can’t agree with it, there’s a world where mann gets the takedown and wins the round based on laying in half guard, i think that happens more than what the bookie predicts
Sitting outside on a sunny day smoking a J listening to another great breakdown from Ley. Doesn’t get any better than this!
ayyyy let’s goooo brother tom! appreciate your support as always mate, enjoy this weekends violence🔥 this card isn’t great but i’m lowkey excited for it still seeing as we’ve had a week off, LFG!!
The vibes brother💯
Hey they pick the fights, we bet the fights! Onama lock of the week!😊
Onama 🇺🇬 • Silva 🇧🇷 • Nicolau 🇧🇷
3 piece with extra soda, thats money 💰
#moneycity
This are my picks: Onama, Henry vs Yahya +1.5, and Diniz 🔥🔥 #moneycity
Dude Rakic shouldn't talk that crap. Fkn busted my +7000 parlay. Bo second round Aljo ML Max Ko
diniz,medic,hubbard parlay
2/3 so far
3/3
be sure to #moneycity these comments in the future bro!
This day every fight week is what I wait for.!!!
That marnic mann fight should be interesting. Let's see if she can bounce back!
9/12 right picks, very good actually
best mma breakdowns 100%
Always enjoy the comedy! This is a tough watch after UFC 300! Turner cost me last week! He showed no mercy to Bobby Green and then expected the referee to save Moicano:( Picks this week: Nicolau, Souza, Silva, Diniz/Lane under 2.5 or 1.5, Spann/Guskov under 2.5 or 1.5 & Hubbard/Figlak start round 2 or over 1.5.
Hey Ley brother, great Review of a not so great card. I got karine silva as a +140 underdog 11 days ago, so I can Say that she is My underdog lock of this card. She is a favourite now but she is an underdog in My bets. Cheers brothers , peace
PS: I changed My profile pic but I'm the Chepe mariscal guy LOL
karine silva +140 (41% chance) that’s a phenomenal bet‼️💸
Nice, yeah I threw Ryan Garcia on a parlay with Medic 🙏
Peace Bro! Nice read on Garcia, didn´t dare to,and no real Motivation atm, 300 was THAT good... ! Shoutout Jirschi btw,greetz from Vienna 😉❤✌
For #Moneycity parlay just Henry,Nicolau,Diniz Ko, Mogli - Machette fdngtd.
And yeah,Max,so sick... Blessings Leyfam,Peace
I’m very confused, why is every prediction video im watching , giving Machado props for the Mick Parkin fight (which he won in my eyes), and saying that’s a good feat to have as Parkin is looking good in his last fights and then choosing don’tale moto moto Mayes…. Ley can you explain your reasoning for choosing Don’tale Mayes
if i’m being honest with you, i hope neither of them win they’re both dossers imo, if i had to make a bet like gun to the dome, i’d go with dontale because he’s had 8 ufc fights so he’s got the experience, he’s fought against sakai/arlovski/nascimento (his last 3 opponents) 6 of caio’s wins are round 1 stoppages all against dreadful competition, when he left round 1 against mick his cardio was really dusty, i’m not sure i agree with you that he won against mick, but i’d say the fight was very close and that’s down to the fact both of them were exhausted past round 1. i think it’s close to a coin-flip tho, you run this fight 1000 times they both probably get close to winning 500 times each, it’s a terrible fight but yeah i’d go with the experience personally if i had to bet it
What happened to The Smoke Break???? That was my favorite!!!
i’m not smoking as much atm brother, they’ll be back at some point tho no doubt‼️
He had no more bud 💯
Max pointing gaethje to the middle of the octagon then flatlining him it doesn't get any better than that....roll on 301
JSP ML
Tim means ML
All the homies hate these kind of cards #moneycity
fax brother it should be illegal to go from ufc 300 to this card💀 more than likely this card will overachieve still tho!
@@UFCGamblingAddicts I know my guy Tim means is ready to take home the FOTN anyways.
Won't lie.....both me and my bankroll appreciated the week off, but we're ready to get back at it!
Thank you for a great breakdown, Ley....let's punish the bookies this weekend! 👊👊
Co-main: Ryan Spann gets back in the win column with a first round finish.
Main: Nicolau by dec.
Im going with Maheshate Silva and ryan spann fight under 1.5 rounds #MoneyCity
Lets cash these tickets bro 💰🍻
I think you’re right about this being Kattar’s ceiling. It wasn’t even a performance where you can find areas that he can tighten up. Just a bad look. Not career over, but we know what he can, or rather cannot do now
even when bruce buffer was introducing him he was raising his knees and slapping his legs, at times in the fight he would cross his legs when trying to cut the cage off, his footwork was so bad it was shocking to see, he’s been in some wars and i think the knee going to snap city has really hindered his ability man
Figlak/Onama +292
Guskov/Diniz +266
Ariane Lipski by decision +400
#moneycity
I’m late but we’re going to money city this week‼️‼️
aw man dont go Means lol
Brother Austin Hubbard kinda killed my whole night but props to Dontale Mayes the “heavyweight Bobby green” and Onama is the reversal king I should have trusted Onama
Llontop Dec, Over 1.5 Nicoleau-Perez, KO method of victory Mayes-Diniz, over 2.5 machado-Mayes, medic, Henry. #MoneyCity
My +400 Parlay. Maheshate, James Llontop, Petrovic, Figlak, Uros Medic. Tim means is great but his body doesn't look as good as when he was fighting Kev Holland. Uros Medic is a kickboxing champ + He a southpaw, i'd be shocked if he losses to fat tim means. Goodluck and WML Boyz lez go #CityParlay
Lipski 0-17 last takedown attempts
Against gatto off 1 yr, aldrich is a striker, oniel coming off knee injury so what's your point?
My point is lipski has amazing takedown defense
@@meatrocket6979 jj is a striker so who does she have amazing takedown defense against
@@daniellebrooks7510 shevchemko,montana,gatto,Casey O’Neil
@@meatrocket6979 i remember picking lipski to beat JJ at +400 and literally everyone was saying the same thing “lipski has no takedown defence” my whole reasoning for picking lipski at massive + money was “if it somehow stays on the feet she’s never +400” only recently has the narrative of lipskis takedown defence changed, karine silva is a great test to see how much lipskis defensive grappling has improved
Onama. Silva. Bogdan and nicolau #moneycity
Spann, mayes, silva, #moneycity
Played the whole main card and this guy locked me in a Gino from $20
Ayyy you won $ Garcia too! Same here. I put 50 and wish I put 300. I might put some money on Jaime Mungia to beat Canelo by decision
let’s gooooo!! for the most part our bet looked pretty bad, haney won like 8 or 9 rounds if i remember my scorecard rightly, but that lead hook of ryan garcia!! absolute MONEY‼️🔥
Hey Ley, Uros will show his level this fight, i know means has the dog in him but finding that late finish vs semi wasnt an accident, hes a dog too, i got my Serbian bretheren
Урош Медић idemo brate 🇷🇸
Mayes, Medic, Silva, Guskov = #MoneyCity
Nicolau, Pearce= #MoneyCity
Me personally I wouldn’t do that one. But it’s up to you. Imo it’s Ciao, Means, Silva, Spann
Nicolau, Onama
"It should be illegal to go from UFC 300 to this" 😂😂😂 yes!!!
Can’t believe we going from 300 to this lol. Either way give me Maheshate and Uros for a easy two piece 🤙🏼💰#MoneyCity
Figlak + Pearce + Nicolau = #MONEYCITY
I got Figlak+Onama+Nicolau ... Lets goo let's see who hits
Karina,nicolau,span,mahishate,onama..Good luck everyone
Na Liang Finish / Maheshate KO / Henry ML
Caio, to be fair I got him at good underdog money and as you said it should have been a pickem xD #moneycity #moneycity #moneycity
+ money is defo the right move in that fight, still a risky bet tho bro, both those fighters are super DUSTY😂
@@UFCGamblingAddicts I agree:)! I took Karine Silver as a underdog too so just one of them needs to hit🙌
@@BilalWkarine silva at + money that’s a BANGER💸🔥‼️
Two fighter's coming off L's main event ginna be heat
Ley, Don't mean to offend you but I've been listening to you for years. Please tell me you look like Ali G because that is who I picture is talking every time I listen to your videos.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 i’m cracking up man
Complete Dusteration 🥊 Meet the king of Shadow city Ben Askren 👑
hahhahaha the GOAT 👑👤🏙️
Llontop or Padilla. I went llontop
The fact that Marina did that good WITHOUT CLINCHING OR KNEES is insane and I think that was a good prediction but women’s mma never follows the good gameplan look at Blanchfield brother 😢😢
feel bad for marina man, it’s a weird situation when you win most of the fight but still lose, kinda the same thing with devin haney, he won like 8/9 rounds against ryan but still lost, sometimes the fighter who performs better doesn’t get their reward, it’s a savage game!
where the fook is smoke section
Pretty much wrong on your entire prediction of the main event. Y’all must of forgot Perez got sneaky hand speed
i changed my prediction check the community tab, i also changed on the co-main tho and 3 others
Souza tko , silva sub , nicolau tko/points 🎉
#moneycity
-nicolau dec
-spann sub
-diniz ko
Na liang will suprise u
i doubt it, she can only win this fight with her grappling and petrovic has probably improved enough to keep the fight kick-boxing
Of course you don’t have time to look at moneycity comments the week I smashed both of mine I posted 😂😂😂 made almost a G and don’t even get to see my name in your video. Weak
Kinda shows you deserve it when you’re upset about Winning.
How could you not bet money Moicano or Diego lopes 😂 u don’t know mma brah
are you blind or death? look at the start of the video i did bet diego lopes, and let’s say i didn’t bet diego, i still know more than you’ll ever know
I have a feeling Ryan Spann fight smart this time.
hopefully he does, he’s got a lot of potential, guskov is just going to throw the kitchen sink, ryan should teach him a lesson if he doesn’t get his chin checked early