How the 797 Could Kill Southwest
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- čas přidán 22. 08. 2024
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Just recently, Southwest Airlines placed its largest aircraft order ever. After weeks of speculation, the Texas-based carrier reaffirmed their long-time commitment to Boeing by ordering hundreds of 737 MAX 7s. While this deal was largely seen as a win for both Boeing and the airline, the fact of the matter is that Southwest didn’t really have much of a choice here. And, the deal actually serves as a stark warning about the future of the carrier. Because, this deal is a sign that Southwest is ill-equipped to handle an eventual transition to the 797. Let me explain…
#Southwest #Boeing #Airbus
Everyone’s talking about the 797, but it doesn’t even exist on paper.
they aren't the same company they used to be :(
yeah... only exist in people minds haha
Given the endless screw-ups that a new Boeing plane entails, its safe to assume its probably going to be 15-20 years till a 797 actually carries a passenger
It exists in paper maybe with different name all of those NMA, 797 is just our hallucination i think.
That is because they do not know what to call the aircraft after the 797
Here is why you're wrong: The 797 doesn't exist yet and Boeing isn't going to design a new narrow body to replace the 737 without including their biggest narrow body customer, Southwest. Also, just an FYI the -700 is not "over weight" and actually performs very well. The name of the game these days is balancing cost with capacity and the -800/ MAX 8 strikes a good balance.
Here’s where you’re wrong : Boeing absolutely will move forward with the 797, regardless of how Southwest feel about it. However, I definitely don’t think they’ll discontinue the 737 program and replace it with the 797 entirely, due to airlines like that of Southwest.
The 97 is a new version of the 57. And it's about a decade away.
@@grahamstevenson1740 that doesn't necessarily mean they won't announce it was too early, though!
@@SimonButler Announcements mean nothing. We're wised up to them now !
@@grahamstevenson1740 I didn’t say the programme wasn’t stalled... wtf are you talking about? 😂 I simply stated what I believe will happen once the program launches... what drugs have you been taking?
Your statement "The carrier has ever only flown A/C in the 737 family" is incorrect. SWA operated B727's for several years.
Yeah, leased from Braniff i think.
Thank you. I made this point one time to someone and they swore up and down I was wrong. I know because I flew on it from Houston-LAX with a stop in San Antonio. I know my planes very welll.
It also inherited AirTran's (nee, ValuJet) fleet of 717 and 737's. Leasing the 88 717's to Delta, it kept the 52 737-700's to integrate into it's own fleet. No 717 flew in Southwest colors
As a kid I rode in a 727 Southwest.
@@danielclooney6248 The 727 was long out of service with Southwest by they time they began servicing LAX. If you flew from HOU to LAX on southwest, both aircraft were 100% 737 variants.
honestly i doubt the 797 will present an issue for southwest. southwest is not a dumb company and they are usually good at planning long term. when southwest was looking at buying airbus planes it was really just a threat to make boeing to get it together since their planes were grounded. this resulted in huge payouts from boeing. southwest is currently in good standing with boeing and this large order of aircraft is a great way for them to solidify their partnership and solve any issues that may come in the future
I bet that Southwest's looking at Airbus might have been a little bit more than bluffing and if Boeing doesnt get their act together, they will. They are not ready to make that leap yet though
@@jameskeefe1761 never know. Covid hit during the max groundings so keeping some planes in storage worked out anyways.
At least Airbus planes can actually, ya know, fly.
Here we are 3 months later and after everything that happened and that I have worked through I can confirm southwest is not a smart company and can't plan ahead very well at all
@@danlewellyn6734 , into trees, oceans, …..
Southwest, is one of Boeing biggest clients. Boeing has done some dumb things in recent history... but I don't think designing aircraft that the airlines wont use is one of them. If 150 seats is the magical number that Southwest needs, Boeing will produce a variant of something with that configuration. They would be dead stupid not to. In my mostly uninformed opinion... lol
Efficiency gains are achieved by larger wings and higher bypass rate engines, both heavier.
It’s the smaller variant which take harder hit, and this is not limited to 737MAX - reengine programs from A320NEO to 777X all suffer from similar phenomenon.
Worsestill, 73G had structures optimised for its size. 7M7 is a simple shrink. Given few actually interested in 7M7 that saves cost for Boeing, though.
not 1 of, but Boeings largest customer by far!
@@azhardav Not true. United buys more aircraft. Southwest buys the most 737s though.
@@txjeb yes, you are correct.
I was thinking the same thing...especially if Southwest is talking seriously about switching to Airbus. Boeing would be stupid to just say oh well see yah.
Coby ~ You're usually very informative and on the mark. However, this time I believe you missed the mark. The 797 is an imaginary plane. By the time the 797 becomes reality, IF it ever becomes a reality, SWA would have replaced hundreds of their current 737's fleet with whatever is available at the time.
737s, not 737's. Apostrophe is for possession. 🙂
MojaveDan is exactly correct. This CZcamsr does not know what he is talking about.
@@denniscampbell3213 I see 2 sorta contradictory statements here.
Southwest will probably move to the A220.
@@Locutus u must have fun at parties
we'll all be dead by the time the 797 rolls out of Renton
Sh!t! What have you got planned???
The 797 is a Boeing pipe dream. They have enough problems with current production aircraft to even think about a new clean sheet design. I don't think Southwest has anything to worry about.
The way everything is going right now, we’ll be lucky if the earth still exists in a decade.
@@KN-ko8ez true the fact of the matter is that did you accepted and open your heart to the calling of Almighty God to accept Jesus Christ as Savior of our sins and Lord of our life? Prayers you will do it in Revelation 3:20
@@whtfsh765 Agree. Southwest will be fine.
Some might argue that Boeing made the 737 Max-7 specifically for customers like SWA. There is absolutely no reason they wouldn’t make a baby 797 for one of their most loyal customers as well. Southwest is, undoubtedly, already discussing that with Boeing execs over dinner in the Space Needle or on Dallas golf courses and the SWA brass is not even breaking a sweat about the future of the 4th largest US airline’s fleet in the the coming decades.
Exactly. The seller is at the mercy of the buyer and not the other way around.
Southwest isn't some small airline anymore and draws so much water Boeing will bend over backwards for their business
Boeing isn't based in Seattle any more. Corporate HQ is now in Virginia.
Yes of course boeing would provide this but it would be poorly optimised like the Max-7 and similarly offer poorer fuel burn per seat. If SW could start over, they would surely go Airbus narrowbody as it's a far better product right now - however with nearly 800 737's , and around 9000 pilots exclusively qualified for the type that's a painful and expensive transition.
The 737 and Southwest are the perfect mix. The plane is rugged, reliable fits their network perfectly and gives Southwest their fast turn around times like no other. Plus the 737’s safety record with Southwest is exemplary. I’ve flown on Southwest countless times and the flights are almost always sold out.
In fairness, Southwest has had a good number of accidents ranging from minor-to-moderate in severity, with two fatalities in their books.
They have a fantastic safety record, but have still had several fairly notable incidents..
@@user-ot4wm2fh8g True, but considering the high cycle and short turn around times as compared to other majors and just two fatalities over a 50 year period Southwest’s safety record is impressive. Plus other majors have had their own incidences and major accidents.
My guess is Boeing will figure out a way to keep one of their best customers happy and buying lots of Boeing jets long into the future.
Exactly - They can order and place 797's on routes with high load factors and free up aircraft for more point to point flights that they may start up.
Also, remember SWA is going international and cab use the 797 for those flights as they are developed and mature while continuing to replace worn out 737's with new 737 variants
@@user-ot4wm2fh8g One of those fatalities was pilot error, but the findings cleared Southwest in the other. They were at or above safety standards and it was an undiagnosed issue on a widely operated engine. Add to that the freak chances of it striking the exact part of the cowling that caused the domino effect of events that led to the broken window. Not all accidents are an indicator of a poor safety culture, some are just accidents. The feds agreed and I trust them considering how safe American airways are.
Taking into account that Boeing had to deal with the MAX and it is facing delays with the 777X I don't see a 797 arrive anytime soon.
Much more likely to see the 787-3 before the 797.
Big manufacturers like Boeing have separate VPs running each program independently such that problems in one program don’t necessarily effect other programs. I suspect the delays in the 797 have their own separate reasons unrelated to the Max or 777X problems. And no, I don’t believe there’s a problem with “the culture at Boeing.”
@max Odom I partially agree I don’t think the 777x delays will really affect a 797 but the 737 max affected everything. That was Boeing main source of revenue and it deeply hurt the company. The max issues became Boeing’s top priority and prevented any real progress on the 797. But now that the max is back on track Boeing can focus on the 777x and more importantly the 797
@@markodom3841 ..one of those "reasons" is that they are still not settled on the interior configuration of either a single or dual aisle cabin.
I still feel t they made a big mistake cancelling early development of what was to be the 757's successor back in 2011. They could actually be ahead of the game in the mid market arena had they continued to pursue it and based it off the 787''s composite technology.
The Max with it's issues (not just MCAS) has set them back years and sullied their reputation. The situation also hasn't been helped by QA matters at the South Carolina 787 facility which they will be moving all 767 assembly to.
@@bcshelby4926 I’m suspicious of the South Carolina problems. In many industries where labor unions are in decline and more work is done in open shop states, a number of union workers are forced to follow the work to non-union plants. It does happen often where a former union worker, in quiet protest to open shop employers (Boeing in SC), will leave a small non-lethal (in some industries lethal) calling card behind in a work area to embarrass their boss, often having access after final inspections have taken place.
I believe much of the negative publicity against the 787 since it’s inception has been driven (and perhaps caused) by pro-union activists, mad that the 787 is being built in SC, an open shop state where wages are lower. See: “Broken Dreams” by Al Jazirra and see if it doesn’t look fishy.
Also, when the 787 was announced and Airbus quickly saw its point to point capability as a threat to the A380 and 340 (which has now been fully realized), industrial espionage being as widespread as it is, it’s not hard to imagine Airbus participating in promoting negative publicity of Boeing (maybe even supporting anti-Boeing bloggers). Why not, considering the stakes with only 2 big plane builders left in a multi-billion dollar industry, the temptation to go for a knock out blow to your sole competitor through propaganda is too great, especially for a company willing to bribe dozens of airlines worldwide to try to outsell Boeing.
To not consider these possibilities is naive.
Hell, BOEING is ill-equipped to make a transition to the 797!
Southwest Airlines: The poster child for the term "Vendor Lock-In"
Whilst there is no equivalent MAX version, there was a 737-600 that was smaller than the -700 that you stated was the smallest version of the NG. It was similar in size to the -200 and -500.
Yah
Made in very small numbers though.
@@Aliquis.frigus i think it was only around 60
@@Aliquis.frigus SAS was at one point the biggest operator. They are all retired now, and SAS is experiencing a gap in their narrow body fleet. As they are replacing all 737NGs with 320 Neos, they are currently looking at option for an replacement. Most likely the a220. I feel as the 737 is not the versatile family it once was...
The 737-600 and A318 alike got discontinued earlier than the other variants of the 737NG and A320CEO family.
Having a single model in their entire fleet makes it EASY to maintain each and every plane. They can streamline the process to an extreme that other airlines only wish they could achieve.
Southwest knows what they're doing.
The 797 is still a phantom airplane, so I don't see the issue.
I think you're forgetting that Southwest has a flight crew, cabin crew and ground crew workforce that is geared _specifically_ for the 737 models. Going to any 797 variant would cost Southwest *WAY* too much money in retraining and spare parts costs; this was probably the main reason why Southwest decided against the Airbus A220-300 model, despite it being well-suited as a 737-700 replacement.
That is exactly my view, though I think that a costly change at the right time could be a crucial gain at the long run.
They got a better deal from Boeing by letting it be known they were looking at Airbus.
That was always a negotiation ploy. Airbus never even submitted a formal proposal for the 220. They knew the the game.
@Harry Old I doubt they made themselves "very vulnerable".
Southwest wouldn't change to Airbus, it was a bully statement to Boeing because the entire infrastructure for over 40 years has been set up on the Boeing 737. Changing their facilities and maintenance set up to accommodate Airbus would cost more than the entire fleet of a new model aircraft.
@@c123bthunderpig It's true they haven't developed the infrastructure to support multiple fleet types, unlike DL, UA, AA. SW can't handle the complexity the way they can. Their operating model is sound but they have never been good at managing complexity.
@@c123bthunderpig no way does retraining pilots and maintenance staff cost that much.
I’m confused. LEAP-1B is more weight but you put a less than sign?
Keep up the good work, Coby! I enjoy your Ex-plane-ations!
Ex-plane-ations😂😂😂😂
oop
Oppsies 😬
It was a pointer in this case! (I would never admit it, but I can't keep those two symbols straight either- good thing I'm a pilot and not an engineer!)
There is one more option: Southwest could browbeat Boeing into producing a plane in the size range they need.
Yes but I think Boeing won’t want to do that given airbus would have a massive head start with their a220. Also like coby stated, developing a clean sheet airplane is massively expensive today and would suck up most of Boeing’s resources.
@@nathanwaldron4259 Actually not much. The fuseleage would be near identical, only new wings/engine required. Systems/cockpit would remain the same.
@w8stral I completely disagree the 737 max is definitely the last 737. Boeing has squeezed as much as they can out of the 50 year old airframe. I’m not saying the max is a bad plane, I love it and wouldn’t hesitate to fly on it. The 797 will use tech from the 787. You are right about new engines and wings, but they will use lots of composites, the fuselage will likely be slightly wider. Landing gear need to be taller and engines will be even bigger. Hopefully they will overpower the plane like the 757 was so the 797 can take off from very short runways. The 737 was a great plane and Boeing had no choice but to build the max but they cannot possibly squeeze anymore performance out of the 737.
@@nathanwaldron4259 Appears you can't read... or think about the SUBJECT of the video... I suggest actually WATCHING and LISTENING to the video next time... before replying
I’m not sure I understand. And damn why u get so heated. I don’t really have an opinion on what the 797 will mean for southwest. But all I’m saying is that the 797 will be a completely new aircraft, even if similarly sized to the 737.
The 737-800 and Max 8 are the same size, But I will point out that the Max 7 and the 700NG aren’t exactly the same size. It’ actually has a 6 feet longer fuselage than the 700NG and will be equipped to seat 150 passengers.
Congratulations 🍾🎉 on your 2yrs I love watching your channel even know that somewhat might not understand 🤷♂ but being a new avgeek I extremely enjoy learning your input. Mate again congrats 🇦🇺
Thanks ◡̈
@@cobyexplanes coby man your explanation on this video was far fetched dude. The 797 isn’t even out yet so why even make a video about it.
1:52. The 737-600 is technically the smallest 737NG variant. It was also the most poorly received by airlines, and it was never certified to have winglets. It's basically Boeing's version of the A318. I believe WestJet is the largest operator of the -600.
Was... they dont fly them anymore sadly
Interesting video. I enjoyed it very much. 👍🏻
One of the saddest things for me to hear is how the Boeing 757 is being retired. As a former flight attendant for American Airlines, the 757 was my favorite aircraft to work from a cabin service point-of-view. I always felt the safest on that plane, too, due to the amazing thrust power the plane was capable of. I left the airline shortly before the events of 9/11 before AA started acquiring the 737.
🌴☀️🌴
The 757 was the hot rod of airplanes, Hugh thrust to weight ratio.
You forgot to add one of the most important solutions that an airline like Southwest and even Ryanair can do is work together with Boeing to design the most optimized new replacement for the 737-757. These two airlines are in the drivers seat. Much like United and other airlines did for the first 777.
In my opinion, population and demand would be pretty high by 2040, and would be easier for southwest to move to narrow bodies with higher seats, like the potential 180-200 seater 797 or whatever narrow body would be good at that time. 737 max 7 was a good choice, but not the perfect replacement.
Depends how you look at it. Yes, global population will rise, but the majority of that is going to be in big cities in Asia and Africa. That doesn’t make much difference to a US domestic carrier…
So whilst there will be more people in 2040, it’s not going to be that much in places like the states. 2040 is now only 19 years away.. And it’s going to be even less noticeable in the smaller towns and cities that Southwest it trying to focus on filling the seats for. If they’re trying to fill a 140 seat 737-700 now, they’re not going to exactly be readily filling up a 180-90 seat aircraft in 20 years time from these small towns/cities. And that’s their main problem, their model directly focuses on thin routes yet the future of Boeing seems to be moving away from narrowbodies..
If they were flying in Bangladesh/India/Nigeria etc. then they wouldn’t have this struggle with projected population growth, but the rural US? well…
IMO they should focus on re-engined version of 757 rather than a clean sheet project. It will save them time and cost
757 beautiful
I heard one of the advantages that Airbus has is the similarity in cockpit experiences across the line, reducing the need for retraining, Airbus even tries to reduce maintenance overhead by making the different models similar to maintain. People talk about the efficiencies of an all 737 fleet, but Airbus can really kind of do that across its different types. That can be really compelling.
So some have said Boeing should do the same, fly by wire replacements for 737, 757
Problem is, Boeing destroyed the tooling and severed the supply chain needed for 757 production, after the type fell out of favor in the post 9/11 era. The 737 Max-10 is meant to fulfill the 757's role as a high capacity narrowbody for transcontinental and transatlantic routes, but do it cheaper. Boeing does not see the market for a purpose built long range narrowbody, despite the rise of A321NEO variants with enhanced range. Boeing is as foolish about the small to medium market as Airbus was with the hub and spoke market twenty years ago.
@@jameskeefe1761 Boeing should invest in an FBW type for the small to medium type market, but after the disaster of MCAS in the 737 Max, they'll be walking a fine line with any new control technology unless they are upfront about it with pilots and have multiple redundant backups for data inputs. Boeing isn't advanced enough with control tech to market to many emerging markets, they've lagged behind Airbus since before Airbus was even Airbus.
Regardless of whether or not the 797 comes out (which probably won't happen until Southwest is ready to retire their current 737 fleet anyway), I'm quite the loyal Southwest customer. Cheap(ish) airfares, free checked baggage, no change fees, a large selection of cities to fly into and good customer service is why I keep coming back to Southwest.
Tbh an a220 in southwest livery would’ve looked so cool
Indeed it would have! Except, it would be financial headache for SWA
The A220 is such a nice plane to fly on compared to a clapped out 737.
That'd be cursed tbh
I thought all the rumors about the (non-existent) 797 were that it will replace the 757 and some 767 variants - placing it in a very different category than the 737s. Now Coby is here saying the 797 will replace 737s and 757s but no mention of 767s.
Until Boeing officially announces a 797/NMA, it's all just speculation. Because of that, Southwest has nothing to worry about anytime soon.
I see your point, it’s true that a 797 should rather be a replacement for the 757 and the smaller 767 variants. Maybe if Boeing decides to built a shortened variant, maybe similar to the planned 757-100, they could offer a 150 seater, but keeping in mind what we learned about shortened aircraft it‘s even more speculative than the 797 already is
Southwest will be fine, the 797 is prop 10 years away
The 737-600 is the smallest NG, Westjet flys them.
Thank you. I was about to say the same thing - although I think they may have retired them as they are no longer listed on their fleet listings. I was a flight attendant with WJ from early days and flew the -600 many times. Nice plane. All the NG were great compared to the -200 that WJ started with - those planes were LOUD and quirky....but fun to fly on though. Cheers.
I was gonna say, makes me wonder if this guy actually knows what he is talking about...
@@swisscake1591 I also think that he is quite uninformed regarding this topic…
6:59 *aside from the time they had a few 727s, though that was a long time ago.
Boeing should develop the 797 alongside an A220 competitor like what they did with the 757 and 767
I think it was stupid of Boeing to not purchase Embraer. I’m just curious as to why Embraer is wanting to go to turbo prop RJ’s. I know they have their benefits, but I can’t imagine that catching on.
I like your background. It's like I'm taking your high school graduation photos lol
lol
I believe the smallest NG variant was the 737-600, designed to replace the Classic 737-500, both of which were about the same size and intended to replace the original 737-200s. Of course very few of the 500s and 600s were sold.
When you’ve got the 4th largest fleet in the world, as you said about maintenance and training, SWA will always get plenty of perks to stay with Boeing.
Hey I haven't seen this video...
Oh it came out 3 minutes ago!
I think you answered their problem in the video, they have time...PLENTY of time. For the last half of the video, I just kept thinking that Boeing has plenty of time to roll out the 797 in the early 2030s, and begin development of a brand new series of aircraft. Thinking about their biggest customer's needs, they will probably look straight at Southwest and make a completely optimized plane for them. If I had to guess, the 797 will be three variants in the 170/180-220 seat range, and this new aircraft series (slated for an early 2040s introduction) will be two variants in the 140-160 seat range.
With the way Boeing is going lately, the 797 will NEVER become a reality. The 777x is years behind schedule, the 737 Max is still loaded with problems, and the Air Force tanker program,which they won illegally in a big scandal, is nearly a decade behind schedule. They've lost all touch with their engineering roots and have become a short-term profit focused Wall Street company.
This right here. The Max safety disaster is final proof that Boeing has lost the plot. Since SW has so much time they might as well switch to Airbus so the cost can be spread out.
I have been such a huge Boeing fan since I was a kid. Let’s just say the last 5 years, I’ve been sickened by the corporate mentality of putting profit over safety (apparently they didn’t think through to the final result: finding that they knew all along about the MCAS and blamed pilots, etc. until their emails came out). Most of the places I fly are on 737-800, and 737-8MAX as well as the A320 and A321. Let’s just say that I’ve picked only Airbus since the MAX scandal. All of the other things I agree with: the KC-46 tanker issues, and the 777x program so far behind.
@@JRSoubasse bloomberg actually did a great spot about it: czcams.com/video/EESYomdoeCs/video.html
Lol thanks for using my video! 😄 2:39
Congrats on overshooting your goal of subscribers by almost 200%. Your goal was 100K, and you are at 193K in one year.
I wrote a paper for my MBA economics class in the mid 80’s. I also ran travel for a major MNA. You are correct with your assumptions. I would say, if this issue, is the only problem that SW has in the future, that’s not so bad. The change in the business model will be mostly dictated by their cost being the best in the business and their clients willing to fly 500 per leg. In my study, the moment the leg was more than 510 miles the were less profitable the airlines became. Their customer base will dictate their future and having a 20 year lee way on that point, is not so bad! Again a great assessment. Thank-you!
One significant truth is that while Southwest and its Senior management may benefit from the decision to remain with Boeing, those who have benefited most and will continue to do so for probably a decade at least, will be enjoying their enhanced pensions before their actions start to compromise Southwest's profitability or even survival.
Coby: The 737-700, the smallest 737NG variant.
737-600: Am I a joke to you?
Coby, if southwest orders the 797 do you think increased demand in the future will help them fill the jet.
I’d imagine not, the US air market isn’t supposed to grow *that* much in the future. Unless SW expands internationally
^what he said. Yes the American aviation market is still likely to grow, the areas we're likely to see the greatest growth in aviation demand is gonna be Asia/India/Latin America. The gain's in the American market will be marginal in comparison
But, reducing boarding time is important to SW. Wouldn’t a twin aisle jet be the ideal 737/757 replacement?
No definitely not. A duel aisle replacement for the 737 makes no sense. The smallest size for a wide body that makes any sense is the size of the 767. Also the 787 is not that much bigger than the larger 767’s
@@bluebox2000 If you are so worried about load times, use the back door. It is frankly stupid that ALL airlines do not already do this. Oh boo hoo, people have to climb some stairs...
Do you remember me? I am the guy watching your live stream at 2am.
Sure do ◡̈
A 797 transition gives SWA 20 years to further develop the most profitable markets, reduce frequency and expand its network. They don't have to be the biggest airline to be the most profitable.
2 years on CZcams. Congratulations. I never would have guessed you made it this far without getting a decent sound system
What Southwest really needs is a Boeing equivalent to the Airbus A-220: a slimmed-down plane that's longer than a 737-700, but has a similar number of seats.
I thought the 797 was a 757/767 replacement aircraft and that no decision has been made regarding a widebody or narrowbody airliner.
Depends on who you ask and when you ask. However, according to Boeing, development of the 797 is their lowest priority, behind fixing the 737 Max's well deserved bad reputation and perfecting the 777X.
Yup, had to point out that the -600 is the smallest 737 NG variant...
@Explosive Gaming It is, according to this wikipedia article... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_Next_Generation
@Explosive Gaming The -600 is the smallest NG model. It is the replacement for the "classic" 737-500 which uses the same fuselage. Without looking it up to verify, I think SAS and Brathens SAFE used them.
-300 = -700
-500 = -600
The Classics were named in order of the date they were developed (-300: 1984, -400: 1988, -500: 1990), while the NGs were named in order of size since they were all planned all at the same time when they made the NG line.
For the last couple days I've been seriously considering starting an aviation channel and starting with an "Ultimate 737 spotters guide". Is that something you think people would want to watch?
I live in Seattle and also have tons of photos of Boeing factory airliners (some taken from the air while working as a flight instructor out of Boeing Field). Without it being bragging, I can honestly say that no one knows more about Boeings than I do because I have been an enthusiast since 1990. I've also helped assemble actual 747-400 center wing sections at the Boeing factory- so I will make videos on what it is like to build them and how the factory works too.
I'm just not sure how anyone will know to look for my channel and watch my videos...
1)Southwest is Boeing's largest and most important customer.
2) If Southwest tells Boeing that it wants a 150 seat variant in the next narrow body, Boeing will build a 150 seat variant for Southwest - and others.
Front lifting canards, and making the tail a lifting wing (not just a stabilizer), would massively improve performance.
Southwest flew the B727 for a very years. Good customer service makes Southwest money every year!!
You forget that the key to Southwest is it's single type of aircraft rather than a mixed fleet. They need new aircraft now - not waiting until what may or may not happen in the 2030s.
Airbus.
What do you mean by “you forget”? Did you not watch the video? That was literally Coby’s main point!
Nice review, FYI the transition from Boeing to Airbus and vice versa is about 6 weeks. Fleet commonality works for Southwest because of their business model but they will always be confined to that model as a result. They will not be able to expand into the legacy carriers much more robust route structure unless they incorporate other fleet types, IMO. Thanks for the compelling thoughts.
The 737-700 is not the smallest NG variant of the 737. The 737-600 is actually an NG variant, just not many were built, and they don't have winglets so they look a bit different as well.
BuT SoUtHWEts FlEW tHe 727 😂 good work as always coby
lol
@@cobyexplanes They did fly the 727. the correct statement was that they currently only fly the 737 familiy and have for most of their existence.
I definitely think this move is to buy time for SWA. It is a smart company that likely has already started working on it post 737 days.
Southwest: "We don't operate through hubs."
Dallas Love Field and Las Vegas McCarren: "Am I a joke to you?"
Don't forget one thing, population growth. Longer lines at major airports, increased demand for secondary ones. Just a thought. Love the channel!
Southwest could also hold a lot of cargo on less busy flights
Southwest has always had a commitment to a particular business model! It had always been the 737. Southwest needs the 737 to fly again.
It is flying again. But they've gotten all they can out of the airframe. There is no more room (literally) to make any more improvements.
Two considerations. 1. Like Ryan Air, the Southwest version of the Max 7 is not an off the shelf product, but is configured to Southwest specifically. 2. The Aircraft that Southwest will be buying in 15 years will not be any of the existing models. All the current models have far too big a carbon footprint. What we are seeing in Carbon Zero research is smaller aircraft. That is exactly Southwests greatest strength. They are well ahead of any other airline, if only by chance, that the world is going in that direction.
Congrats on 2 years! When do we get a Q&A?
I believe Southwest knows what they doing
I love the business philosophy of Southwest. I trust they will make good decisions going forward.
The NG and Max families use a different baseline, though both have 2 stretches and one shrink. For the NG, the 700 is the baseline, the 600 is the shrink, the 800 is the first stretch, and the 900 is the second stretch. For the Max, the 8 is the baseline, the 7 is the shrink, the 9 is the first stretch, and the 10 is the second stretch.
It's clear that Boeing designed the Max 7 specifically for Southwest, because they need a replacement for their 700s that maintains fleet commonality. Other airlines that need something this size are probably going to order the A220, which is optimized for it.
I think making a 757 MAX or 767 NEO would be a good idea, since both of them are made for medium/long-range routes, and can hold more people than a 737. Seriously, a 757 MAX would be an excellent competitor for the A321LR/NEO.
The max-7 has the most range out of all the max
That doesn't make sense,
but i believe you...
@@jeebus6263 it does, it has like 7 thousand and all the others have like 6 thousand range
There is no way Boeing would leave the small airplane market. Look how popular the A220 is. I’d guess they replace the 737 with a real A220 competitor and also have a middle of the market 797.
I think it's more likely whatever plane comes after the 797 will address that market
It's also worthwhile remembering the A320neo (and whatever its replacement ends up known as) and the 737 MAX are functionally a duopoly, hence especially if Airbus do a clean sheet A320 replacement there will be even larger pressure for Boeing to do a clean sheet 737 replacement. To not do it would be to hand the market to an even larger degree to Airbus.
In comparison, the A220 has competition from the E2-and while Boeing isn't the one profiting from it, it does limit Airbus's gains.
Very informative, Coby... Thanks!
It's a shame they moved from Newark, NJ to LaGuardia, NY... we miss them!!!
Southwest did use 727's in their fleet when they first started back in the 70's, but they didn't keep them long
Simple solution for Southwest would be to purchase A220's from any airline that has them and is going bankrupt. They'd get the pilots and maintenance operations too...... watch for this.
Great perspective as always! I would hope SWA would start adjusting their business while changing their changing fleet. They have much more room for growth in the airports they serve and their routes, so I am confident that they would handle the transition successfully. I agree it may be tough because fleet consistency is in their DNA.
There’s this one plane called an a320, kind of like the 737 but newer
This is a gross overstatement:
1-this is at least a decade away, for the 797 to enter service, longer for widespread saturation
2-southwest has been growing lately in terms of destinations, and certainly can modify their fleet to adapt.
3-it’s likely that the 797 will enter service with southwest at some point if they choose to increase range and capacity on certain flights
4-there is nothing that says they must maintain their fleet of 700NGs or MAXs, they certainly can flex them away
5-if they do grow to be a more traditional airline and go for some hub and spoke model routes, they can contract with sky west or another regional to service the truly smaller cities with regional jets instead of having to purchase A220s, engravers, RJs, etc.
6-they’re probably the savviest airline in the US currently. They’re not a gigantic American or delta which seems to have a hard time pivoting. They do a wonderful job as an airline and they’ll get through challenges as needed.
If only Dave Kelleher were still around...he'd be able to figure out this problem no sweat
Dave? You mean Herb.
@@kenheidenberger850 Yes, the Wild Turkey drinking Herb - will never forget!
*Herb.*
So, in reality you should have titled this video “How the 797 may become an issue for Southwest in 15-20 years if nothing whatsoever is done before that time to address the potential issues.” Click bait title IMO
There is no way in hell that the FAA would allow anybody to certify a cockpit that looks anything like a 737 after the MAX debacle.
DJ, have you stepped back to look at the larger picture? When SW began, they were using an aircraft that flew less than 2K miles! Today it's over 2X in range & almost double in seat capacity (the most stretched models)! Down the road they're going to have to settle for at least a 2 model fleet!
When that gets near Boeing and Airbus will be planning for a two-model fleet with as much commonality among parts as is possible (think 757/767 with the identical cockpits, but on a larger scale) to get their business.
@@reedermh True, you're saying what I've wondered about! Once you get licensed for a commercial bi-reactor jet plane, why/what can there not be a commonality from the E2-170/ A220 & up to the 777/ A350????
Brother if the public knew “the apparent” problems that “appears” to fester within the ranks of maintenance, especially with their new Maintenix maintenance tracking software and would you believe that SWA “appears” not to have bar coding capabilities/ system to track parts, manage parts inventory and the moral is bad.
That would explain all the maintenance delays I’ve seen as a passenger.
Hot take: Southwests retro airline livery looks better than its current one
It was a good run guys. 737 production has stopped, so let's just call it quits.
Correction: The -700 is not the smallest 737 NG. The -600 was the smallest version but only 69 were made and are used extremely little in the modern world.
For Southwest it would be a disaster and for United and Delta it would be an absolute win. Speaking of the 797 I would not be surprised if United or Delta are the largest customers as they are huge operators of planes like the 737-900ER, 737MAX-9/10 (United only), A321NEO, and 757-200/300.
Westjet used to fly point-to-point with an all-737 fleet. They eventually set up a regional subsidiary with Q400’s and pushed more traffic through both major and regional hubs. I don’t see why Southwest couldn’t do the same with A220’s.
A220s are much larger than Q400s. E175s more likely.
If Boeing is smart they will do a 75/76 type program but at the smaller narrow body level. Imagine a family of aircraft that share the same type starting around the A220 size with a 2-3 config going up a little bigger than the 757-200 in a 3-3 config. Problem is there won't be any new engines available to make it worth doing for at least another 7 years
The instrument panel on the 737NG and the 737 MAX is fairly similar to the panel on the 7777 and 787. It's like the switchgear in Chevy Malibu is similar to a Cadillac sedan, because they are both GM cars.
That said, Boeing started to talk about a new narrowbody in the mid 2000s. Southwest and American both expressed serious interest. AA was in need of new narrowbodies, after the retirement of the 727 and F100 and the planning for the eventual retirements of the MD-80 and 757.
AA didn't want to order more NGs, only to have a new narrowbody introduced.
But, the very initial engineering didn't progress, as resources were devoted to fixing problems with the 747-8 and the 787.
AA got tired of waiting and ordered more 737-800s, starting in 2008. Southwest eventually ordered more -700s, as well as -800s.
Southwest also isn’t prepared to have 787 either or the 747 or the 777
Southwest doesn't need widebodies in their fleet. They aren't flying many transoceanic international flights which require the range of a widebody.
Boeing should just keep the 737 production line open exclusively for southwest
But that wouldn't be very economical for Boeing or southwest
Sure buddy
@@woodduck2178 Air Canada and WestJet would be happy for new 737
Southwest should replace it's "skinny, Cramped, problem plagued Boeing Cattle Car" fleet with Airbus Cadillacs. Passengers will pay a little extra for the legroom, shoulder room, and comfortable quiet smooth ride.
I think you’re completely accurate with your analysis. Herb Kelleher said, “I think business should be fun” but he just rolled over in his grave in terms of leaving the 737. Herb was the one that advocated the paint job, which weights 749 pounds thereby increasing fuel costs unlike American who has no paint job. So for you my friend, you are telling the story right. SW Must make a change. But Herb would say, “ As long as we can have fun converting, then it’ll be alright to Segway to a different airplane.”
Southwest continues to move more towards a Hub operating model, they just don't call them that.
Your assuming everything stays the same. 15 years from now things change and SW will have no issue adapting to a new 797 model
SW has a team of very smart engineers, accounts, and business people to figure these issues out. I love SW!
Click bate. The 797 doesn't even exist yet if it ever will, which is certainly not clear it will. Either way Southwest will be just fine.
Ever heard of conjunctive, signaled by a word like "could"?
@@spongebubatz It's in no way a reasonable hypothesis. As one of the most profitable airlines in the world they have the ability and funds to adapt as they need to and have already done. As best it's at least another decade before a 797 would be delivered. They have to meet current fleet needs now not 10 years from now.
I think your conclusion point number one: "Adopt an imperfect jet" is a little underrated.
Since you clearly say that the 737-7 MAX is rather inefficient for its class, why couldn't they just settle with a 737-8 type of plane. Where the operating costs would only be marginally higher than the -7, but they could try to simply increase their markets and sell more seat for certain routes, as well as settle with a slightly lower load factor.
You shouldn't look at load factor as an absolute value, rather you could look at the profitability factor: meaning the operating cost of a type/class of plane divided by the number of passengers on them. A sort of "revisited load-profit factor".
I totally believe the 797's going to be a huge problem; Boeing's cost-cutting has been so disastrous, you have 737 MAX's crashing due to a software issue (which has been fixed, but shouldn't have been added in the first place as it was a software fix to a hardware design flaw - a stalling tendency during takeoff), their 777X has been effectively grounded because it's been experiencing similar pitch-up issues as the 737 (among other issues that the FAA has basically said "come back to us later once you get your act together"), they've moved most of their 787 production to a state which has no experience building aircraft (which has led to numerous design flaws that has lead to groundings for aircraft from that state), their space capsule nearly crashed after takeoff due to _two_ separate design flaws were basically patched out _while the spacecraft was heading to space_ (not to mention that its most recent launch was cancelled due to a valve issue that wasn't detected prior to putting it on the pad), and to add insult to injury their KC-46 aerial refuelling aircraft were grounded _four separate times_ due to poor workmanship (and the US military refused to accept anymore for a time until Boeing got their act together).
Boeing will need 5-10 years to design the 797, and by then Airbus will have the successor to their _current_ aircraft, and the A220 is a _brilliantly_ engineered aircraft - so much so that, as you said, it interested Southwest greatly. Likely the only reason why they even chose the MAX over the A220 after the massive (and costly for them!) debacle was that Boeing likely made a huge settlement basically giving them away at-cost or even less in an attempt to avoid a massive lawsuit.
I strongly suspect that going forward, Southwest will have no faith in Boeing's ability to deliver both a quality aircraft, and to deliver it on-time. I believe they will be transitioning toward a competitor, and when they do, they will likely replace it with a single type as well (with a period where they would be flying two). My guess is that they'll be going with the A220, and when they have enough A220's to fill demand, they will sell of their entire 737 fleet - MAX's included. My hunch is that if they do as I think they would, they will begin sometime in the next 2-5 years, likely when the A220 comes out with a New Engine Option. In fact, I can imagine a possibility that Southwest may very well have said to Airbus "Boeing gave us a deal we can't refuse with the MAX, but let us know when an A220-NEO comes out."
I wish Southwest Airlines was smart enough to order the MAX8 and nothing smaller.
Hey! Congrats on 100k!!