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Are DSLR Cameras DEAD?! (Picture This! podcast)
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- čas přidán 24. 05. 2019
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Are DSLRs dead? Tony and Chelsea dive into charts and graphs and find some surprising information about the future of cameras.
Like our podcast, Picture This!? Subscribe to our podcast on your favorite podcasting app and leave us a review if you're feeling spicy and kind... and not critical... and nice.
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Looking forward to good DSLR equipment finally becoming affordable.
It is - look at Pentax.
Get a used Nikon D750
Yes and value of good glasses stays more stable than bodies which prices change so quickly
Used d800e bodies selling for under $800. Some with very reasonable actuations, like >50k.
@@andrewcomerford9411 although Pentax is good - I am shooting with Pentax cameras for years - Sigma and Tamron stopped manufacturing lenses for it. For many years there is no new high-end APS-C model (KP is mid-range). Problems with slow AF are still here, too.
In 2021 the Night King will raise his arms and all the neglected DSLRs will rise again.
Yeah but there Samsung will just stab him and it’ll be all over
You can't kill what's already dead!
Arya Stark: "Hold my beer ..."
Haha 😂
I’d like to think of stony as the Night King.
I don't have any intention of neglecting my DSLRs ..... Mirrorless will be the Betamax of the camera world.
It's also the case the DVD-Audio vs. SACD simply split the market, preventing either format from gaining much ground. But it's relevant to think of "high end audio" vs MP3 as being akin to "real cameras" versus smartphones. The set of people who had home stereo systems capable of exploting full CD quality is fairly small... meanwhile, the MP3 travelled with you everywhere and offered the convience of your whole collection on one small device. DSLR or mirrorless, you get far superior quality in a camera over a phone, if you really learn photography: shooting and editing. The phone, like MP3, is "good enough" for average non-photographers. And they increasingly employ advanced photo techniques like various kinds of photo stacking, all AI controlled.
The upshot of all this is that a novice with a modern smartphone, moving to an entry-level DSLR or mirrorless, is going to have trouble getting shots that match what they got on the phone. There's a learning curve, and they're unprepared. In the past, you might have moved from a snapshot camera to a compact rangefinder or something before your SLR, and each upgrade immediately delivered better images. Not so much anymore.
Well said!
I think the Tony's right in everything he said I have the d700 d500 and the d850 I will never replace them for a mirrorless camera I'm very happy with them the great cameras great colors great image what else can I say if ain't broke don't fix it thank you Tony for your Insight
You're going to have to eat your words at some point ^^
Just as an analogy, think sports car.. I have driven the E-Type Jag and a modern Lamborgini.. The Lambo is so much more refined.. You can’t smell the oil. The ride is quiet and you can here your passenger speak. The ride doesn’t shake your teeth loose at high speed.. Now look at the definition of the true sports car.. Good looks and fast. You can smell the oil and your teeth get shaken loose at high speed and you would have to take your eyes off the road to lipread what your passenger was saying.. Those were the days! My DSLR is more like an E-Type!
@@Sidowse yeah but thats less of a mirrorless more of a cinema
The D850 is a heirloom.
@@paulsimmonds2030 Sure....but the exhilarating induction roar from those SU carbs, isn't that analogous with the mirror moving out of the way in your DSLR?
PS:- (Just pulling your leg).
Although I own a Nikon DSLR with 4 lens the camera I carry with me is my Sony RX100IV. It is small, practical, takes reasonable pictures and most importantly is in my hand!
quick answer - NO. My DSLR's are gonna serve until the shutter shatters.
LordArioh x....haha, yes but then they will be dead right? Looool
@@tonypower9315 obviously. unless I fix them and make a video 'Are DSLR cameras undead?'
You mean...when your DSLR dies?
@@hakujo Then you get the shutter replaced.. then you're gonna be good for another 300k
Then you are the kind of consumer the camera companies are aiming for when they plan their marketing strategies
Chelsea: "Plus, Limewire came out!"
*Napster has left the chat.*
Chelsea never really adds much to the conversation
Haha!
Next……Plus Bittorrent came out….now LIMEWIRE HAS LEFT THE CHAT🤣🤣🤣
Thought it would be interesting to see how things have changed in the past few months, so here's an update as of Nov 5: the Canon T6 and T7 along with Nikon 3000 and 5000 series are still the top sellers, but mirrorless models appear to have moved up....
#11 Sony A6000
#54 Sony A7R iii
#57 Canon EOS M50
#61 Nikon Z50
#66 Sony A6500
The vast majority of the top 100 are entry DSLR kits (with tripods, bags, SD, etc. included) between $300 and $600, along with a few high end Nikon and Canon bodies
You're missing some vitally important common sense here. In short: speculation.
Mirrorless camera owners have a much greater appetite for new lenses compared to DSLR owners who have an existing range of lenses and/or know that they'll upgrade to mirrorless in near future and therefore hold off buying DSLR lenses.
Also, although by current numbers alone it makes no sense for manufacturers to invest in mirrorless lenses/accessories, in the long-run it makes absolute sense as a lot of consumers will hold off changing to mirrorless until there's a larger infrastructure in place. Yes there are mounts for EOS lenses, etc. but when changing formats I (and most) want a range of mirrorless lenses to enable them to go all-in.
Agreed. You can also add in exponential growth of Mirrorless with a decrease in the number of new DSLRs being produced and an increase in new Mirrorless models (from all manufacturers) that covers more/all of the market. The fact that virtually all DSLR lenses can be used on Mirrorless will compound the move to ML.
I think you're right but not just because it's 'mirrorless'. New mounts demand new lenses. Old mounts have many lenses to choose from in the secondary market, including third party and used.
Also most owners of DSLRs don't go past their kit lens, especially low cost kits (APSC DSLRs especially), which really diminishes the significance of the installed base. This would likely apply to mirrorless too, but most current mirrorless sales are chasing full-frame and high-end users, which tend to buy multiple primes and can afford more lenses too.
"Mirrorless camera owners have a much greater appetite for new lenses compared to DSLR owners"
Tony & Chelsea Northrup There are more DSLR owners so of course the lenses are selling more atm. You don't need to spend time analysing Amazon statistics to assume that. I was talking about DSLR Vs Mirrorless owners 1-1 (not all-all which is pointless atm as the ratio will swing dramatically since we're in a crossover stage). Not everyone jumps ship immediately after new tech goes on sale; rather they re-evaluate their tech when their natural upgrade cycle comes around - for many/most this is still years away. There were more horses on the road than cars until around 1908 - more than 20 years after the first car went on sale but selling/buying fuel wasn't dumb in 1890. Likewise, cart spares carried on selling well for my years to come. It's not a case of all or nothing. My point is that any sales numbers you cite at the relative birth of new tech aren't indicative of the numbers of tomorrow. Mirrorless sales will rise exponentially rather than, as you seem to be suggesting, linearly. Happy to let time be the teller, though.
@@TonyAndChelsea If however you spend any amount of time on forums I think you can see that this is because the majority of mirrorless users are enthusiasts that will adapt lenses to their cameras. For example their existing Canon lenses, m-mount lenses or the now plethora (over 150+ at last count for Sony from a wide variety of manufacturers and inc. Cine lenses, full list on Brian Smith's site) of E mount lenses. Therefore many different lenses but likely sales spread around them so that individual lenses likely don't figure on best seller lists.
There's a reason Sony (for example) are now the world's #2 ICL camera seller, having just overtaking Nikon, and have been the #1 seller of Full Frame cameras for quite some time. Naturally they can't have obtained that position without selling an awful lot of lenses.
I would add that personally I hear of very few of those users on forums buying from Amazon. This may be a smaller market than your average non-enthusiast, one DSLR/one or two zooms, buyer on Amazon but they buy many many more lenses.
1. Don't use data sources when you don't understand how they're generated.
1a. You can have 1000 entires of the same product on the Amazon list, in different packaging.
2. Don't confuse volume with profit.
3. Make sure your data source is based on the target demographic (high margin products in photography is not purchased on Amazon).
But how can they mold data to fit their narrative if they actually collect it properly?!?!
I would add that a listing without quantities is worse than useless. It gives false information. Number 3 on the list could be almost at the same quantity as number 1. Furthermore Paretto law suggest that 20 percent of the items should generate 80% of the sales.
probably should have used B&H and other more profession like store fronts for that specific gathering of data.
Amazon is far and away the largest retailer. It’s fairly safe to assume the sales ranks are a power law distribution.
Really a fun show! Lots of production value and information. Happy trails, Cheers!
.
You have some really interesting perspectives on the future for camera brands and their various mounts. But I really hope that your wrong about M43, because we deserve such a good alternative to full frame. I have both, but I find myself grabbing the M43 gear for hobby use. I'm so tired of lugging around heavy gear at work, and I'm amazed what kind of quality I'm able to get from that little sensor. I love those tiny prime lenses that are sharp all the way to F:1.8. Their weight is next to nothing, they cost less and they perform well. My favorites now are these Olympus lenses: 1.8/75mm, 2/12mm and 4/12-100mm. And I also love my super fast Panasonic G9. And because these lenses are quite fast I can keep ISO low and quality high. And I have used a lot of top class full frames, like Canon 1DxMk2, Canon R, Sony A9, A7iii. They are all super good, but the glass is so heavy (and the 1DxMk2). So for you people doing photography for fun, it's really nice to carry a very small bag with lenses from (35mm equiv.) 18 to 600 mm that fulfills all your needs, even nice bokeh.
Precisely. Ideal travel camera, often "amphibious" - great photo AND video capabilities, light, weatherproof. My no. 1 for any outdoor job.
Basically I rarely use any high ISO values. One of the photographer's jobs is controlling the light conditions.
20 Mpix M43 sensor is better than 10+ years old 10 Mpix APS-C sensor of my Pentax K10D.
When shooting films, M43/Super16 sensors are larger than 1" sensors of most of pro grade video cameras. Super 35 sensor is the APS-C equivalent. Alexa Mini or Amira are S35 but using much lower pixel density than photographic sensors is what makes them to be superb in low light (similarly Lumix GH5s or BMPCC with M43/Super 16). For some shots, even using S35 is impossible or difficult taking into account large size of the camera and accessories.
I especially bought a Sony Blu-Ray play as it could play my SACD of Dark Side Of The Moon.
I still have my Denon dvd/sacd player. not throwing it away.
@@officialMainspring I still have my Denon too but it didn't play the HiDef 5.1 version of Amused To Death so I had to spend $500 so I could listen to that disc.
Totally worth it.
bro，I even play vinyl record in my house. it brings me unique feeling of listening to music
A good way fritter and waste the hours in an offhand wayyyy
Yep- the Nikon D850 is a relic, sell it to me cheap. 😎
It is a hell of a camera. It is really overkill most of the time. GFX 100 is just insane.
Dennis W I actually want one... using a d500 right now and am fine with the d850 coming down in price. 😊
@@jen43072 How is the D500? XT3 better?
Have never used the XT3. I like the d500 a Lot but want its big brother for full frame
@@mainmain5303 I have both. The XT3 beats the D500 in everything except lens selection and build/weather sealing. Well, I also think the XT3 is too small in the hand, I much prefer the feel of the D500. I'm going to get the XT3 battery grip and see it that helps.
I am having a fun time with my Canon 70D with 5 lenses to cover all my shooting needs.
which lens are these if you don't mind sharing?
My dslr isn’t dead, it’s working as good as the day I bought it
As others have said, including you guys, include camera stores like B&H and Adorama. I don't think most people who would buy a Panasonic S1, Nikon Z series or Canon R series would be jumping to Amazon to buy their cameras.
Most Rebel type buyers get a kit with a couple of lenses that cover most of the shooting range. Why would they consider buying better lens? They usually don't.
@Carpet Hooligan then they will look to more "upscale" cameras.... how many Rebel owners are walking around with Sigma ART or Canon L glass...
If Tony is correct, it creates an interesting business strategy scenario for Canon and Nikon. But, my guess is that most of the people who buy the Canon T6 or T7 or whatever never buy an additional lens beyond the kit lens. And, those who do buy an additional lens usually buy a low cost, low margin nifty-fifty or something. So, the vast bulk of their use base isn't really the potential cash cow that Tony assumes. I have a Fuji XT-3 and I've bought three lenses for it in the last 3 months. I also have a Canon DSLR that takes beautiful photos and is four years-old. There's no way I'm buying a lens for the Canon even though it is great camera -- it seems like putting money in a time machine and sending it to the past. The one thing that seems clear to me (and I wish it wasn't) is that the Sony A7III is selling great. I'll take it further. The A7III is a break-out, industry-changing, decent camera that came at just the right moment to destroy the dominance of Canon and Nikon. A7III customers will be buying additional lenses for that device. That's just the perfect volume + likely to buy further into the ecosystem price point right now and that hurts so much given what Canon and Nikon had riding on their new mounts. I'm still using Fuji, though. Just love taking photos with it.
Maybe your recent lens purchases, three in three months, is more due to your transitioning to the new format. I've never been able to move past the dslr i bought 13 years ago, except a nifty-fifty, lol! I'd love to upgrade. That ol' d70...yup...still goes out with me most mornings. But I'm not trying to make money with it.
I got some questions for Tony (kind of unrelated to the video's discussion). What's the best adapter for my Sony A7II, if I want to use a budget lens like Canon EF 75-300mm f/4.0-5.6 III Autofocus Lens? Do you suggest any other budget lenses that have that kind of distance reach? I'm totally new at this but I'm hoping to get better at it, and do some professional photography in the future. The other lens I have is a 28-70mm. Thank you!
I think Tony is right. Thanks for an other good video. Love to watch you two!
I bought a GH5 this year. i dont consider that a dead system.
Hey there fellow MFT user! :)
But isn’t that mirrorless.
The GH5 is king of video, but no one buys it for its stills performance.
Tool Craze Ok? First off, anecdotes are anecdotes. Similarly, I could tell you the story of how horrible the stills on a gh5 came out during my last concert shoot. That doesn’t tell you anything. Second, nowhere did I say it doesn’t take good photos, only that for the price, there are far better systems out there.
Tool Craze Reading comprehension isn’t one of your strong suits, is it?
Thank you, interesting video. One question in your top 16 list you have the D5300 as #4 and #16...????
I suspect one of those should be the D5500. It might also be the D3300 but I doubt it.
Curious why Nikon D5300 showed twice (at number 4 & number 16) on the top 16 cameras being sold? Was 16 supposed to be D3300?
I pretty much agree. I hope that Nikon survives as a long-time Nikon user. I am sitting on the fence as far as the Z mount goes. I also expect MFT to survive but with a focus on video with niche players like Blackmagic and with Olympus persevering with cameras more suited to still photography.
Good video. Thanks.
I am a pro (7 years now) I never bought any camera from Amazon. I buy from B&H, Wexphotovideo, adorama, second hand sometimes...
Tony did mention that he is using Amazon because the publish their sales figures
If you can get sales numbers from B&H and other retailers you mentioned, please share them with the world, make a CZcams video. I personally think the sales numbers Tony pulled from amazon are both relevant and the only set of numbers you can get from public domain that have any significance.
I believed B & H and Adorama sell cameras via Amazon too.
Hao Zheng I was just explaining my own experience, but I think you could look at best sellers on B&H by categories, it could be a small representation.
I tried once to buy a camera from Amazon UK, it didn't go well. Wex, Ebay, Currys/PC World and local shops are where I go for camera gear.
Thanks for an interesting video Tony and Chelsea...just some thoughts...
- Mirrorless has only just 'started' to be a true replacement with Sony (Canon and Nikon's first atempt was premeture tech and not ready yet)
- Professional SLR vs Mirroless sales on Amazon seem to indicate professionals (higher value units) have switched to Mirrorless (Sony)
- Majority of 'higher value' lenses on Amazon are mirorless mounts (Sony again!)
- Seems Sony is winning the war currently and Canon and Nikon are lagging behind, perhaps once the next generation is ready it might help level the playing field a little and make it clear mirrorless is the future?
- Once A9 tech gets cheaper and into the entry level mirrorless camera's this should start to see the end of many of the lower/entry level SLR's I believe
@INTOtheVOID11 You shoot? Are you a professional? If so have you switched or not? what's so funny? around 4 years when we tried out the A7Rii in our studio at photography events and meetups we were the only one shooting mirrorless... fast forward to today... there are significantly more people shooting Sony that I've seen! Also Sales data indicates there is very few sales on the higher end SLR gear compared to the uptake on mirrorless so I'm not too sure why you are 'LOL' Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying all professionals are switching I"m just saying professionals are starting to switch to mirrorless now as it's only 'becoming' more mature now... Even our A7riii is still not perfect but it kept up with just about most SLR's and the A9 is beating most SLR's out there already so what I'm saying is the next generation of mirrorless I believe is going to kill SRL's as the old advantages such as battery life, fast focus and more importantly accurate focus at a decent FPS are all essentially been fixed with the A9 and the future of mirrorless is looking good... if you are a professional I'm keen to know what you find wrong about this statement and what you disagree about? I'm also keen to hear your opinion/side...
This was very useful and insightful. I planned on getting an EOS R. Now I'm looking forward to 90D.
Hi, I follow your videos to educate myself. I have a doubt. Will there be any changes in F value and focal valued while using an EF-S lens with a APS-C sensor Canon DSLR? Thanks in advance
It took 3rd gen smartphones @2011 and the consumer walked away and accelerating. Sony/Fuji are well into Gen3 ML so canikon may hang around with dslr but a solid Gen4 from Sony/Fuji in 2020 will force very rapid conversion to ML.
Do you and Jared call each other before posting.......
Agreed. I saw Jared's first. And on the side was this one. This is just way more detailed. LOL
Jared is really Tony in disguise (just kidding) 🤔
LOL no but we do talk occasionally. I didn't know he did a video on the same topic.
@@TonyAndChelsea 🤔
I shot the fuji xt2, the sony a7rii and the OMD EM1 mark ii and I always came back to my 5d mark iv. Just the ease of use and reliability of canon is just awesome!
Not that I can afford it, but I wish the 5D had the same screen movement of my 80D.
Tony and Chelsea, what camera would you recommend for sports photography? I need a camera to photograph my daughter’s horse shows(hunter/jumper). Can’t decide between what pros are using at shows, mostly Nikon D5 or D500, the D5 is too large for my liking. Or going with something like a Sony a9 or a7III or a7rIII or Nikon D500 or d850? I know you been using the a7rIII now, is that something fast and reliable enough for a running horse or are one of the others better suited?
I am loving all the stats Tony. I totally agree with your predictions.
There's a big flaw with all this data and that's the focus on FF. I can see the smaller sensor cameras gaining market share just because of the overall value vs. the FF premium.
Most of the formats in the upper half of the top-16 list were cropped.
Being in the situation of being confused on what to buy right now as my first DSLR, I'm tempted to go with something like a Canon D80 which has virtually everything I need to learn on, it's not too expensive unlike the current crop of Mirrorless like Sony, Panasonic and Olympus and their lenses are fairly expensive as well.....like most newish tech on the market, once theres a lot more models, tech flows down through the lower priced models and they get cheaper over time. I already have a mirrorless phone camera and a slightly older Mirrorless Fujifilm 6800s zoom bridge camera that I can use....so don't really crave more...I can cope with a mirror flapping about a bit as I rarely do action photos anyway. Great video Tony & Chelsea..thankyou.
Sir have you ever noticed that Sony a7riii LCD screen flickrs very very slightly for half second after taking picture in live mode.I hope it is not my camera malfunction.please answer me sir i am very worried.
Mines work perfectly and will continue so till I'll be dead, so I honestly don't even bother about mirrorless cameras.
Your assumptions are on a linear acceptance rate, which is a false assumption. When Nikon and Canon put actual, professional mirrorless bodies out, their R, RP, Z6-7 will be purchased more. Also, as native trinity glass is produced for both systems, there will be a greater number that transition. Love you guys, but success isn't linear, and neither will sales for mirrorless.
I second this. it won't be linear for sure. ppl buying MILC from Nikon & Canon now are kinda early adopters. when the shift actually happens DSLRs sales will plummet.
Exactly, when 2nd gen Canikon mirrorless cameras, with all the kinks ironed out, hit the market then adoption rates will increase exponentially.
Also, it is much harder to convince an existing DSLR user to buy new lenses than it is to convince a new mirrorless user who presumably want to take advantage of mirrorless mounts for lenses. So Tony's assessment of the potential new lens buyer market is completely wrong.
@@mikhaillastname8719 Before the Sony A9 and A7iii Tony still didn't even like Sony... because there wasn't enough native glass at that time. I like these two, but maybe it's time to get out of his own head. He clearly worked to defend that he knew what he was talking about, but left out some really key factors and strictly made assumptions based on one sales stream.
@@Bayonet1809 bingo. That's why Canon & Nikon didn't release "Pro" bodies first. Without the native Glass to support the system there was no point. Until Sony's most recent body releases of the A9 and A7s, that finally have two card slots and the glass to support them, people still questioned the future of mirrorless including Tony. That is why Chelsea bought the D850. Some short memories on this episode.
@@Bayonet1809 I do agreee about the Canon M line up though. That one doesn't look like it's going anywhere. We will see. Who knows, maybe Canon is paying someone to figure that out.
I love the humor you have guys, keep it on ! :D
Don't know squat about the futur of photography gear tho
My D850 is still working; just checked
and it will for a long time. Just bought one as my pro/con resulted for me it's better than the Z7.
should i replace my d750 with z6?
Yes. My dslr is collecting dust. I will give it a proper burial soon.
Fascinating discussion and analysis. Thank you for sharing (I don't shoot the messenger -- as.a former journalist, I used to be one of those messengers who was used for target practice).
I think it would be interesting in a couple of years if you would re-examine the numbers again to see how closely today's projections reflect reality.
Thanks a lot, Tony, for the great analysis. It's a must watch video for business journalists too..
I just did my yearly walkthrough of B&H, tried every body under $1500. I was surprised, the two standouts for me were the D750 and 6Dii in every way. I had gone in thinking I’d probably be coming home with a mirrorless.
I sold my 80D to buy the X100F nine months ago, and somewhat regret it.
I'm doing my part for the Mirrorless Revolution.. i'm waiting for my Q2- while still happily shooting my 850.
HAHAHHA Love your impressions of the whiny listening audience.
Tony predicted the bankruptcy of his employer. Bet that made him really popular in the boardroom. ;-)
As always sharp and neat words that make us think about the camera market and more in general to the technological one. Thanks.
Very interesting discussion. I’ll throw my 2 cents in. I tried a mirrorless and despite the obivious and many advantages I just do not like the EVF. I want to like it but I just don’t.
Good show. My camera is at #12. Think I'll keep it for a few more years. Cheers!
It's amazing that Tony can spend all of this time and energy accumulating data, but at the same time be unaware that Nikon has been very clear that they are not abandoning developing new DSLR's and F-mount lenses. They've been practically shouting that from the rooftops.
@@aceflibble Maybe you missed the releases of the 180-400mm and the 500mm PF. Also the pretty reliable signs that a D6 and a D750 replacement are coming. Not the actions of a company "just saying" they are going to support F-mount.
@Дуотт Даэнур Except Nikon IS releasing new F lenses and bodies
@@aceflibble The 600PF is already in NPS hands and should be released this summer. So if Tony is saying that if Nikon goes full-bore into mirrorless and doesn't continue to support DSLR, they will go out of business. Are you then basically saying they are willingly going to go out of business? I really can't see that happening.
Ok, well then both Tony and I disagree with you. I’m comfortable with that.
Paw patrol
Hi Tony, great video. Thanks for sharing. I am a Nikon DX user, and looking for an upgrade on my gear going full frame. I am interested in street photography, portraits, travel, etc. Do you recommend to stay at Nikon? Mirrorless over DSLR? the Z6 over a D780? Thanks in advance for your advice!
This was such a great podcast!!! I mean... all your stuff is awesome, but for those "thinkers" in the crowd, your fed us good! Love your channel, love the conversation/context... If I missed the answer to this then excuse me, but what do you feel will make the biggest "shift" in the market right now? I wish I could see a graph showing who (groups) are doing the buying right now... Bloggers, Prof. photographers, general enthusiasts, etc. Are there now more people using smart phones and apps (yes) and how is this impacting the industry (the Napster effect on CDs)... Anyway, keep doing what ya doing!!!
I own a D7200 and thinking about a D850 or D500 for my next camera.... DSLR arent going anywhere for a while :)
i love my d850 expensive but worth it ! im sure its going to last foverer too
Go d500....
Im in a similar boat. I currently have a d5300 with 4 f mount lenses.
To go mirrorless ,with the cost of new lenses is out of bounds financially.
So what do i do?
I upgrade,yes,but to an f mount Nikon.
The camera companies that not all customers can afford to spends several thousands at upgrade time.
Heres looking forward to my d850 next summer.
Or d750. Plenty good enough for me.
Thanks for the D500 recommendations, the reason I’m debating between the 2 is because I own some full frame lenses, with the high res of the D850 shooting in DX mode will give me a really close quality that the D500 offers which mean I can shoot DX or FX depending of the situation. Although the D500 is more of realistic price that I can afford at the moment.
if your going to use a chart, identify red and green lines someplace
He gave you enough verbal cues to know what they were showing.
I’ve been a long time Nikon DSLR shooter and I have recently made the plunge into mirrorless. What prompted me to do so were the rave reviews on the Nikon Z mount new lenses and their excellent optical capabilities that were, as a new line of lenses, optically above and beyond the very mature line of Nikon F mount lenses (I’m a high cropper and thus a sharpness addict).
I looked long and hard at the Nikon Z7 and the Sony a7R3, shooting with each of them for a few hours. I did not look at the canon mirrorless because I wanted a 40+ megapixel sensor.
In the end I purchased the Z7, because I absolutely loved it’s ergonomics, including the touchscreen capabilities to very quickly control the camera. Yes, the Sony’s focus tracking capabilities were superior to the Z7, but that was not enough for me to tilt the balance, the way I shoot.
What I really love about the Z7, with which I’ve already shot several thousand images, other than the excellent optical quality of the lenses, is the great electronic viewfinder-It’s super usable in both lowlight and direct sun conditions. Also, the ability to adjust exposure on the fly and see what your shot is going to look like is simply priceless to me. The ability to look at the live histogram and see how much clipping you’re going to get is also super useful.
Do I think DSLR’s are dead? Well as long as Nikon DSLRs have better focus tracking than their mirrorless models, DSLRs will survive, and the impending arrival of the Nikon D6 thus makes sense. In my view, once that hurdle is crossed, there won’t be any turning back. There’s just no reason to stick to DSLRs in the long run. In the short run of course if you have a lot invested in DSLR lenses, and are loathe to use an adapter, and are happy with the image sharpness you are getting, then it makes sense to stick to DSLR’s for a while longer.
Sooooo is it a bad idea for a video person to invest in the lumix series cameras. I already have 3 and am looking to get more/upgrade
If they're the best tool today, go for it. If you need to switch in a couple of years, resale value shouldn't be too bad. Even totally dead mounts like Samsung NX still have decent resale value.
Tony & Chelsea Northrup thanks!!
Excellent and well thought through video guys. My 10p worth as an amateur wildlife photographer is that my d500 with the 200-500 wipes the floor with my xt3/100-400 when it comes to tracking wildlife. The xt3 is the best camera I've had but once the subject starts to move then problems arise...
Get your self an A6400 or A9 and see what you think.
I really feel that Nikon HAS to release an APS-C (DX) level Z series consumer / Pro-Sumer camera that people can grow into . They need an update path like Sony has to make it in the long run.
They are, it's called the Z50.
"I just like a good old-fashioned record player" And what do you see now when you walk into the music shops? Vinyl. It's back. It wouldn't be getting the shelf space if people weren't buying it.
Not necessarily, it's just that CD sales are becoming more and more comparable to vinyl. Physical music media is becoming more of a niche and yes, it's not dead but like it or not, it's getting replaced by streaming and downloads in the mainstream market. Same with cameras. Sad but true.
Met a Pulitzer-winning photojournalist on a trip recently who says EVF's are still not good enough and his eyes quickly tire when watching a screen rather than looking at the world through a lens, so not an option for pro work. Made me feel like a hobbyist with my Fuji.
...and he was 70 yo. :) But jokes aside, i switched from 5d Mk3 to Sony A7R3 in december last year (yes it was a pain to ditch those great Canon lenses after so many years), but a couple of month was enough to me to stop looking into a small hole when taking pictures. I don't use the EVF at all now. It is so easier to look at the backscreen and more convenient to use both my eyes. It's bright enough, works great even in direct sunlight (it's much brighter then the screen on the "basic" A73, or any of my previous Canon bodies), refresh rate is more than enough, lag is barely noticable. EVF is far from replacing OVF, but right now i'm not even sure if it has to. I really enjoy using my camera this way and the quality of the backscreen will be a key point in my future investments.
Very intelligent tony... you have come up with such a insane data.. Good work
Very interesting video as always. After 25 years with Canon im now a Sony mirrorless guy and couldn't be happier :-)
Congrats on over 100,000 views on this podcast. You surely reached a lot of people.
Thanks for the video, As i was looking at the chart. nikon D5300 was ta #4 and #16
The differences between mirrorless and DSLR are not strong enough for most people to make the switch. Image quality between a DSLR and mirrorless, is essentionaly the same. There are a couple of perceived advantages that mirrorless have over DSLR (OVF, fps and autofocus), but not compelling enouigh advantages for most confidently skillfull DSLR users invested in glass to switch. I see mirrorless cameras peaking soon on improving on the advantages that they have now, which still won't be enough to convince invested DSLR users to switch,... Besides improvements in what all cameras already do: The real question is what "New" things are mirrorless cameras going to do in the future? That will convince people to completely leave their DSLR behind...
Other than autofocus, mirrorless doesn't do anything I can't already accomplish with a DSLR.
Being able to use all my DSLR Canon glass on a mirrorless body makes it worth a try, which is why I bought a Canon EOS R.
Xio Kassay the a7 series has terrible autofocus in low light and sports. This is why all sports are being shot on DLSRs. If mirrorless was better, sports shooters would use them, but they don't.
Xio Kasay: Your comment is one of the best ones I've read. I couldn't agree with you more. Check out my comment.
@@JaredRibic Autofocus is the number one requirement, for years I have moaned about DSLR focus inconsistency, using my Sony its almost like cheating, I just laugh to myself as I do not get any misfocus images ( biggest issue is trying to sell my Nikon gear )
Thanks @@Ydkoll, I'm interested in checking out your comment. Are you aware of an easy way for me to locate it? Lol
I think hybrid, optical/electronic, viewfinders may be an option for some of the older mounts.
I think the D6 and possibly D760 will have hybrid viewfinders.
I just bought an eos r as im starting to shoot weddings, I still have another two dslr's that I will keep on me... mirror less personally was suited for the video capabilities and the eos R was compatible with all my rf lenses thanks to the adaptor sold alongside it. I think ill always have a mirror less and dslr on me during big shoots but I think the eosR is definitely my new daily driver, the shooting speed, size and weight took the cake for me.
I believe they will just go alongside standard dslrs, some will use it and some wont... the comparability options means it might just be another camera option and the new technology in focus and lens distance might just be a boost for mirror less photography.
would nikon and canon have bothered with mirrorless if it weren't for the risk of sony kicking their backsides?
2000 Dollar cameras will never replace 400 dollar cameras with consumers.
True. Unless I see a sub $1000 mirrorless that isn't a complete shitbox, I'm not convinced. Looking at the $ony 6000 series, I don't think much technology will leak down from the flagships in the observable future.
Yess but you can still grap the original a7 new for less and less money.
a new 650 euro a7 (or a new 800 euro a7r) is not that much worse then an a7iii
@@davidstremmelaar5819 I'd go further than that and suggest that and suggest that the old faithful original a6000 is still on the market for a reason. Tech-wise it might not be very compelling to us, but it's very cheap and actually a very capable device considering that (at least in the UK where I live) I see them on sale for around £350 making it a worthwhile beginner's camera with a solid upgrade path. Arguably, neither Cannon or Nikon have a camera on the market that can be bought from New at that price that's as capable.
Of course, if a teenager approached me for a recommendation, I probably wouldn't advise then to buy new for a first camera (get an old T3i off eBay for £75 and you'll be pretty content for a while) but parents supporting their hobby, or older people just getting into it will feel pretty well served.
And hey, I took photos of gigs and theatre for years on an a6000, along with a bit of portraiture. It might not have the bells and whistles, but it'll do the job.
@@StrikeFromTheSkies did you ever heard about Micro-Four-Thirds !??
@@2406ab totally, but with sensor size being the marketing battleground of the moment I think that people are starting to get more cautious any M4/3.
Then again, a lot of beginner's just see a compact "proper camera" with interchangeable lenses at a low price, I met a guy not long ago who bought an entry level Olympus specifically for astro photography and who was really pleased with it. Unexpected things do happen.
I do think the upgrade path hurts people a bit though; the higher end M4/3 bodies are just fighting a losing battle against larger sensors right now.
In a different very informative episode, you correctly pointed out how much the job market for photographers is changing. You stated there that one of the best ways to escape this downward trend is to develop one's skills in multiple areas, namely photo and video. If we look at video specs, mirrorless cameras are already outperforming DSLRs by a considerable margin. If we add the advantages of advanced object tracking, I am tempted to believe that this technological shift might significantly shorten camera replacement cycles because professional photographers will need to switch to mirrorless just to stay in business. While the DSLR base is huge currently, I would argue it will shrink a lot faster, especially in the face of a more competitive job market.
Now, you already announced M4/3 dead, you now also put the L mount on the list of "endangered" species. Can both be true at the same time? This would leave Panasonic without any mount. Also, the L mount is backed by 3 well-respected companies which is unique in the camera industry to date.
As always, big thanks for the high quality content from you. I am looking forward a lot to your in-depth reviews of the Fujifilm X-T3 and GFX100.
Pro photographers have influence, but their purchases do not in and of themselves drive the market. We are what? 5% of an already shrinking market?
How can the Nikon D5300 be on number 4 and 16 at the same time? I could get a certain impression.
Excellent! This is so helpful to me as I've been in a huge state of conflict over what direction to go with my system. Nearing retirement and not wanting to waste money and really cannot afford to make a mistake. All roads keep leading back to the Nikon D850. I owned the Z7 for a brief period and it was OK for landscape but NOT great for birds. It's come down to having to decide to focus on one area of photography, wildlife/birds vs landscape. If focusing on landscape I would go for a Panasonic S1R or Fuji 50R. I love wildlife and bird photography and question if I would be happy giving this up to afford a great landscape camera. However, if I go with the D850 it's excellent for everything. Seems like the most practical for a long range plan. Thank you!.
Catherine Piazza hi what about D500 for wildlife?
Tony I usually have nothing to say, but I MUST interject. You should have got data concerning photographers buying habits before making this video. I’m almost positive the vast majority don’t buy their bodies on AMAZON. I think you know this too, so I don’t need to tell you why. Therefore, I really feel like you should redo this video, which I never thought I would say.
Longtime subscriber, own all your products, you got me into photography many moons ago, therefore my wife hates you.
I would be shocked if Amazon wasn't easily the largest retailer of cameras in the US and the world.
Yea, my wife hates him and her too :) . My opinion, I think this is just another data point based on Tony's interpretation of the available market data. Nothing wrong with that and it got a lot of people thinking (judging by the comments). Not perfect by any stretch, and I agree it would have been great to see Adoramas and B&H's view of the world too. However Amazon is a huge sample, as Walmart and Costco would be for that matter even though they appeal to the prosumer, amateur side of the market. I don't know how you would be able to determine how many pro's buy their stuff from Amazon but I would almost argue the opposite since Amazon is perhaps more global in that they have local / regional / international web pages, have the international shipping, regulatory, custom's process, etc down pat, and can probably get a camera to any part of the world faster than an Adorama or B&H. Just my opinion but got to believe Amazon has an advantage here in that regard that would appeal to Pro's making a living in some hard to reach country.
@@jamesnelson8697 They might be. And consumers, not professionals, are the largest buyers of cameras in the world. I think it's correct that, while Amazon is a useful datapoint, it's probably skewed. But the only way to know that is to do complete research, and that isn't necessarily easy. Not every retailer makes their sales so public.
True. I've bought every camera I've owned (1 Sony, 3 Panasonic, 4 Nikon) from brick-and-mortar stores. Because when you buy a good camera, you want the chance to try it out, have a local return/swap option, get advice from salespeople, etc.
1) Sales projections were based on CIPA data. Amazon data was used as a second source, specifically because the Panasonic models sold so poorly CIPA didn't even rank them. Nonetheless the two different sources are consistent with each other, and both are consistent with data from Google Trends.
2) Amazon sells a massive number of both consumer and pro cameras. Looking at the top 100 cameras on Amazon, a huge number of them are pro bodies - 5D4, 6D2, D750, D850, etc. Also, Amazon reveals sales rankings, while no other seller does to my knowledge.
Do professional phhotographers really buy their gear on Amazon ? I don't think so ... But amateurs do ! And they represent the main part of high quality cameras like APSC sensors ...
It would be great to see all this in the full frame market and what professionals will be chosing in the future :)
Amazon sales figures are not a good indicator. No-one would buy a high end camera without checking it hands on first - and that would be in a store; and professionals probably have a relationship with a store where they buy their gear. I cant imagine any pro buying his gear on Amazon, and the good stores would probably price match Amazon anyway.
@@chrissimpson9981 This. I don't buy anything but minor accessories and the odd hard-to-get lens online. The guys at the local shop know me and my needs. That counts for a hell of a lot.
If the price is right I don’t care where I buy, most sales people are not top photographers. I normally know what I want, internet sites help.
About how many pro - users did you speak? There are so many people outthere who are selling the stuff without to get money for their pictures! They feel like professional users, but they aren't. This is the market for the big companies, the pros are just a much smaller group with very special interest in technical gear.
I have seen a group of 15 - 20 doctors on a private date at a winery just to relax. Everyone of them had a top dslr with extreme expensive lenses on it. I could count how many pictures are made: 0 !
But it was nice to see the cams in their cars... Porsche/Ferrari/Jaguar...
You know what I mean? Too much people with too much money...
And such people will buy at Amazon...or their secretaries ;-)
Would a full frame GH5 change your mind about Panasonic (and L mount)?
Thanks for the helpful information and well thought out predictions. I hope that the 'R' lenses will do quite well so the DSLR used-lens market will have plenty available. It seems that today Canon mirrorless is trouncing Sony. I'm still (recently retired Photo teacher on a budget) going to invest in a Canon 80D even though I'm afraid that a new 90D will be out soon. I wish we could read the corporate minds. Arrggghhh! Tony, which format (mirrorless vs. DSLR) do you prefer to use?
I noticed the same thing they did during my recent trip to Japan. Most of people that used actual camera were using some form of DSLR. Not Mirrorless.
And small mirrorless cameras are supposed to be more popular in Asia too.
This kind of video again Tony. 😊
Is this dead? Is that dead? Is x dying? Is y gonna die out?
Yes. Everything dies eventually. Everything have a beginning, a middle and an end.
Even mirrorless 😱🤫
babylon4953 right!?! Why are we beating this horse again? We get it, you’ve established your opinion on the future of photography and need not bombard us with data to validate that opinion. We aren’t investors in canon and Nikon. Invested in the systems; yes, and there is definitely something to be said for that aspect of the conversation. But this is dragging it out. Content has to be made, but think outside the box Tony and or Chelsea
@@yourmommashouse, believe it or not, the channel actually does get new viewers all the time.
Hong Kong Phooey yes and the black hole in the center of the Milkyway will just expand and swallow the whole galaxy. (our sun isn't big enough to become a super nova btw) Including our sun, by then a white dwarf. (who knew astrology could be so racist, right?)
So let's just all lay down and wait to die.
"X is dying" seems to be the winner in views these days.
I think there may not be enough consistent data to speculate what will happen just yet. I watched another vid by another heavily followed photog talk about the transition to mirrorless from DSLR being similar to when the transition was made from film to digital... I'm not sure that is a fair comparison bc that was a far more drastic change because it effected the body and the image format. The new movement really only focuses more on the body, while both continue to produce digital images. Any thoughts? I don't know enough about mirrorless to make an accurate comparison but I do see some of the new features not offered on the DSLR's. Nikon's attempt at mirrorless left us scratching our heads asking "why only a single card slot?" Please, I welcome thoughts on this. Very interesting topic here. Thanks!
Smartphone sales have declined 5 quarters in a row, so smartphones are also taking a hit. We've pretty much plateaued technology-wise for cameras and smartphones, and many people are finding their current cameras and smartphones are good enough for a while. There is not much incentive for many consumers to upgrade their equipment.
plus prices of both keep going up. Why should I upgrade when I got what I want and its to expensive to do so or change over.
Smartphone cameras today take good pictures and are great for most casual pictures and they are handy, but they can't yet replace a DSLR, DSLM with good high quality interchangeable lenses or even a good P&S. There will always be a market for good cameras and lenses.
Stuart Hirsch this is something normal people don’t understand. They literally don’t see a point in a camera that isn’t in their phone lol.
@@MrAyybee2cold I definitely don't understand why I should spend thousands of dollars on camera and lens when my smartphone can take good enough photos (it's better than my 15-year-old DSLR in most situations). No one said that the smartphone can take better photos, but if you are not a professional or have a lot of money, in my opinion the smartphone is a better option for most people (and it can do more than just take photos).
K. C. Absolutely, the smart phone is enough phone for the average person that wants what used to be called that “Kodak Moment”. The candid shots that uses to cost for developing and printing are basically free on a phone. There was a translation period when people still printed on printers, now with most people just snapping candid shots for social media, the smart phone is good enough.
For the professional, a better dedicated camera body with lenses are important. I predict that one day, there will only be a few camera options, a smart phone and a higher end camera with nothing in between.
As long as the prices of Canon/Nikon DSLR's cameras /lenses continue with the current prices, Sony market will continue to grow as their technology is much better today.
See their APC's camera keep improving (a6400) and FF are superb.
Buttom line: Sony giving the best value for money today!
Sony doesn't give value over Nikon and Canon. Sony holds back what people want and is laughed at by professionals.
@@cowboys5group444 laughed at by professionals? Is that why the A9 is objectively better than the D5 and 1Dx Mark II in terms of image quality, autofocus, and shooting speed? And their lenses autofocus faster and more accurately, plus they're sharper. Have you seen the 400mm f2.8?
@@cowboys5group444 "laughed at by professionals" this isn't the days of the original a7 and the SLT series cameras. Sony's stuff is great now. I just swtiched from the original a7s to the xt3 but only cause my a7s is breaking down after 5 plus years of heavy use and (mainly) water damage
While all of that is, no doubt, very true, I just bought a Nikon Z 6 last month as a birthday present to myself. It's the most fun camera I've ever owned!
Same thing I've heard about every Z6 user.
I can only agree, it brings back joy in photography and makes it possible to shoot high quality video. Ergonomics in buttons and menues is amazing.
Well said. Thanks for putting in the time for these videos. Price and the who and how (amazon marketing) seem to determine sales.
Canon t7 older tech and priced low ranked very high. What will happen when the EOR RP or R drop 50% or more in a year or so...?
Nice to hear it all from someone who has the cred's. Well done. I have questions about some of the factors, but I see that the variables are so huge that I cannot bring any one thing up for question. It would take a discussion. Thanks for this post.
About Amazon Rankings Nikon may be lower than really is because usually Nikon USA give you free stuff like ZTF mount while amazon has nothing
At the end of the day, if a DSLR has great dynamic range, quality focusing system, and so on, I see no problem with DSLRs. If the end results are what you need, it should not matter if it is mirrorless or a DLSR in my opinion.
so true..
Hello, great video. Full of informations. Makes me want to buy better DSLR body/lens second hand while the hipe is on mirrorless at the moment. Why is the nikon d5300 appearing twice on the list of top sales ~7 min? Or maybe the list shows something else. Thanks. Romain
Has anyone done a mirrorless v dslr for in studio?
some have said the EVF is so useful and better than OVF, but when using strobes the EVF's "advantages" become void.
Does mirrorless have any advantage in a studio setting?
Yes it does
I like this analysis, because it's based on real data and not just personal preferences. Canon and Nikon especially are in a REALLY tricky situation right now.
youuuuuuuuuuutube what I find interesting is that Canon basically just copied a bunch of their existing lenses and made them mirrorless. I wonder if they actually spent a lot of money developing them or if they just reverse engineered what they had cheaply. Nikon didn’t invest too much in the Z mount, hence the poor quality lenses with a high price tag. And Canon also raises the prices significantly on theirs. I would also agree with Tony that Sony and Fuji are poised to keep growing.
@@danielcrotty8697 Are you sure they just copied lenses? Sounds like they made higher quality versions, for example the 85mm 1.2 has this new "Blue Spectrum Refractive" technology, the problem is that they're also incredibly expensive. They might have convinced more people to buy into the R system with cheaper lenses.
@@danielcrotty8697 That is complete nonsense. Canon's RF lenses are designed specifically for the shorter flange back distance of the RF mount, so there is no way they could be reverse engineered from existing EF designs.
Nikon has invested heavily in the Z mount, and the current lenses for it are optically spectacular; the primes are near Otus levels for 1/6th the price, 1/3rd the weight and with autofocus, so how is that overpriced?
I firmly believe the DSLR are slowly being walked down. Trust recognition and tech. Better glass really makes companies build a better technology platform.
And yes, Canon and Nikon will focus more on mirrorless to catch up. again, TRUST is the key. as soon as Pro photographers start trusting mirrorless bodies...DSLR's will become special. It's TECHNOLOGY.
I think it will take a long time for DSLR to completely die off. It's probably not on the critical list yet.
Sony is sitting back laughing because they have full frame and APSC using the SAME MOUNT. Canon is too segmented.
well if things go in favor of dslrs in some years, who will be laughing ?
and having eye AF even on animals.. sony is so far ahead its ridiculous
As long as the camera companies can make $$ selling DSLRs they will continue to produce them.
Usually when a new technology comes out, it takes time for it to catch up and even overtake the existing tech. I remember when digital cameras hit the market? Many people said digital cameras will not be as good as film. I remember a buddy saying, he'll never go digital. I believe even he has. Mirrorless has been slowly but surely catching up with DSLR.
The problem is you only remember the winners. The losing new tech never reaches the public. That's why Tony's point about DVD audio is a great one. It's not really possible to say if something will overtake or if it's a gimmick. Nobody knows.
@@CanditoTrainingHQ I see your point. I am mainly thinking of Mirrorless cameras. which isn't like to say DCC, DAT, or Laserdisc. I remember as a kid Kodak disc cameras. Ya, that didn't do too well. I have a Z6 and I like it. It does have advantages & disadvantages to DSLR. My D5200 is faster with moving subjects but the Z6 kills it in low light.
Have had two mirrorless cameras. But I switched back. Why? Because I find the EVF mostly annoying since I can't see through the camera when switched off, the battery life is still worse, the lens selection is way way less (both used and new), I can still get a live view by flipping up the mirror, the mirror also acts as a dust protection and I hated cleaning all the time. So I switched back and I have not had any desire for a mirrorless again.
Can you explain how exactly do you get the numbers? AFAI see ratings go to best 100.
Sorry to be a nudge, but your top 16 cameras on Amazon lists the D5300 twice (#4 & #16). Is the other the D3300?
The D3300 is actually the same as the D7200. Just has less feature, and aimed for beginners. Use good glass, not the cheap kit lens. Not everyone needs a Pro camera.
The D3300 is a good camera especially with better lenses.
Fuji had been in trouble when film died and they learnt there lesson.
May be some big camera companies may go through what fuji did when film died .
And what is that, make skincare products and makeup?
"when film died" lol... I just bought some Kodak Ultramax that is now sitting in my fridge. Also Ive shot two rolls of medium format film in the last year, seems fine to me.
7:18 - You need to go by hardware $dollars as well attach. My guess is that someone owning an A9 is more likely to spend more on the accessories and lenses.
Nikon just released the 500mm PF with F-mount. And they’ll need F lenses for the D6. Just own both types of cameras; then you’re covered. I know the D6 review is coming soon. Maybe Chelsea will have a new camera; a D6 DSLR, (hybrid DSLR).