How Badly is the UK economy Doing? - New Recession
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- čas přidán 7. 05. 2024
- A look at problems of UK economy - why we entered recession and why wages have stopped growing. Is there any glimmer of hope on horizon?
Chapters
0:00 Intro
0:37 Falling Living Standards
1:50 Unemployment
3:06 Impact on Poorest
3:55 Housing Crisis
5:30 Brexit
6:47 Investment
9:35 Inflation and Bank of England
10:57 Pound Sterling
11:32 Productivity Puzzle
12:09 Regional Inequality
Sources:
ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/the-sta...
www.ft.com/content/78d3611e-a...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/...
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► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
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I think it's interesting why US economy is growing much faster than UK (and most of Europe) czcams.com/video/5cctalVPt6w/video.html
Keynesian economics.
There's a gaping hole in every financial analysis regardless of country. GDP is 98% correlated with fossil fuels. Materials 100% correlated. Energy blindness is at the root of every failed policy. In addition globally we're going through 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent fossil fuels energy annually. Fossil Fuels are one and done. There is no Fossil Fuels Fairy refilling the holes UK squandered away it's huge North Sea gift of the earth. The usual vultures took the money off shore with an assist from irresponsible politicians.
I am not too worried about the US economy growing faster than European economies. They work on average some 350 hours per year more than a European worker, have next to no social safety net, spend a sh*tload of money on healthcare and still risk bankruptcy because of medical debt.
No thanks. I prefer European lifestyle and growth over theirs.
Dollar printable as will as mondial réserve money...
Trump, 2024! 👌
Highest taxes but huge cuts to public spending; makes you wonder where all the money is going? Not to the ordinary people of the UK, that’s for damn sure.
Ever hear of the Panama papers...Moseck Fonseca is just one among thousands in dozens of countries all around the world 😂.
We've been living beyond our means for a long time now with a deficit every year...
War. Everybody know
Pensions, war efforts of other countries, tax cuts for Tory-connected business people and donors. And absurdities like lockdowns which result in zero income and max expenditure for the state.
Too much central control over the economy since WW2, Brexit, Bad Governments. Lack of industrial Policy or a Bad policy made up by the uneducated. All adds up to make us more poor.
Look how well Poland is doing on that graph, wouldn't it be ironic if the English started going over there for work.
Let's hope they get out of dirty EU, then their country will boom!
@@andrewtaylor6737 les polonais font partis des grands gagnants de l Europe... De quoi parlez vous ?
They actually earn more than average people in the Uk now and their living standards are much higher than in the UK. Looks like UK is going backwards ☹️
You should see Poland the standard of life is way higher than here. Pundets have been warning that we could be like Poland in a few years. I'd say we'd be lucky if that were to happen.
@@KarolinaTLI visited there not long ago and was describing my life here to them. They were horrified.
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Average wages in the UK today are the same the US had in 2001.
GDP has risen but GDP per capita hasn't. What does this tell us?
Increase in population but economy i.e GDP has not risen at the same rate.
But who wants to live in the US
@@Alex-fm5ke@Alex-fm5ke Most of the world as it receives more migration than anywhere else.
@@Alex-fm5ke Millions of people crossing the southern border.
Firms always complain on lack of workers. They want someone already trained and willing to work for poverty wages
What important is PROFIT 😅. I'm not a resident/citizen of UK, but its common everywhere. Now a days education is just a business repeating just a business, students are not gaining anything to survive in the job market.
That would make sense if the unemployment rate wasn't almost at bottom. That means firms genuinely can't find the employees they need to grow themselves
The bottom level of the employment market is only in work due to wage subsidy. Take away in-work benefits and force employers to pay a living wage and you will find the service sector shedding rather than absorbing jobs. Furthermore the whole economy is based on printing money and running up unsustainable debt. When (not if) it comes crashing down you will discover unemployment rates of at least 5 or maybe 6 million in Britain for which, no doubt, you will blame the government@up546
It's cause its a fudged stat compared to 2010, more people in zero hour shit jobs with zero security and record people not counted on the statistic (disabled etc, but not working), it's all theatre, it's a lot worse than stats suggest@@bordedup546
If they included the same type of data from the 1980s that use to measure economic inactivity to calculate employment rates, real unemployment would at least be four times higher in the UK than the government currently claims.
When the official stats start to show the inconvenient truth it's time to 'improve' the methodology.
Their numbers are Total NONSENSE
I was thinking this as I watched that part, can anyone point me towards a video/doc outlining this? Perhaps I'm searching for the wrong terms.
When you're off sick and out and about you notice 😂
well.. yeah.
but the whole point of having economic indicators is for everyone to use the same ones - because then you can compare them
if you turn it into something no one else is using, you will effectively make it useless - because then it would be incomparable
I retired in 2006 from a mid range non managerial job. My wage from 2006 still looks good today ? It occurred to me that over that time wages should have doubled.
this is why your old job is probably not being done, or not as well. see, nobody will bust a nut to own nothing. everyones pretending to work at the moment.
@@buy.to.let.britainThat’s absolutely true. What’s the point of working really hard for a shit standard of living. The old communist adage of ‘they pretend to pay me, so I pretend to work’ applies.
I work hard at my job even though I earn below the National average.
You had it good, that was the right time to retire. Great for you but it's freaking depressing to realise so many are going to get screwed simply because of being born at the wrong time.
@@speedyhillski And that’s commendable. But I know I’m not the only one working at not much more than 50% effort, because even though my salary is multiples of the average, it still only buys a crap house and no holidays.
The biggest single problem right now is Housing. I am in the contruction of new homes and right now it coming to a stop. The reasons are cost of materials, skilled labour and interest rates. The amount of young people being trained is tiny compared to the demand. The quality and supply of materials is also in a dire state. The situtation is very bleak. We need at least 2 million affordable homes right now. The population has increased by about 6 million in the last 20 years, house building is way behind. Build houses and rents will fall and workers can have somewhere to live and move to where the jobs are. The cladding situation is far from being resolved and also take a look at the leasehold scam being allowed to develop along with leasehold maintenace. Sort this whole housing mess out and many other problems will resolve themselves.
And just like that I am cancelling all my plans to move and work in the UK. Inflation hitting real hard mate. I am no Harry Potter but I bet Voldemort will tell me this if I pushed through with my plans: "You're a fool and you will lose everything!" 😂
It is like living in an open prison. Crumbling infrastructure and things just don't work here. There are MUCH better countries to go to. Best of luck.
Understandable - I live in the UK and want to leave🤣
Same here... did the NHS exams and all but when they offered me starting salary of 27k pounds i politely refused... even if i got "proper" salary of 33k pounds.... thats just not worh it when housing is stupidly high...
@@klawlor3659where would you go, given the choice?
@@DarkAgent82571personally I think it's about getting the right balance. If i wanted the opportunities and wealth I'd be headed for Oman, Qatar, UAE and Bahrain. If I wanted the mix of opportunity plus a more laidback culture (read less religious overtones) I'd be looking more towards Vietnam, maybe China (although it has the govt oppression) and Indonesia. Then there's up and coming central and South America, with the likes of Brazil, Uruguay and Chile. I would steer clear of the EU, but maybe consider Netherlands for temporary money making opportunities (been there, and the lifestyle was relaxed and chilled).
It's a mirage that the unemployment is low, a lot of people are not claiming unemployment benefits. With the tech sectors in the doldrums, high streets shops have been put into administration, do you still believe the government statistics that the unemployment is low ?
Government may well be redefining unemployment by using the expanded unemployment definition in which they only count those who have given up looking for work as being unemployed.
@@MusehanaH The government is massaging the unemployment figures and putting a spin on it.
A tonne of zero hours contracts has created non-unemployed with nearly none of the financial security that we assume is meant by employment
@@stevecarter8810 Wiko and The Body Shop into administration, those people must be counted.
They are count people who are out of work but not claiming any benefits as employed and there is millions of people who are unemployed but not claiming for 1 reason or another
The recession is currently the "most likely outcome for the economy and I cannot imagine being a victim of circumstances," with inflation at a four-decade high. My portfolio took a serious hit, and it won't get any better. This red season, I've heard of folks netting hundreds of thousands. How can I make sure of that?
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Watch this space. When the US fab 6 bubble bursts the Us stock market will go into free fall- no doubt the US will simply print more dollars and then watch the US treasury market implode. If dizzy Truss can spook the money markets with an announcement - what do you recon will happen to super leveraged economies like the UK?
I feel "weak demand" for homes needs to be looked at more... I think I fall into a large group of potential homeowners that really don't want to pay vastly unrealistic prices on the market... New builds in particular feel like a scam with so many of them not even fit for purpose
We need the government to step in with some sort not for profit scheme to get people off the toxic rent cycle
"We need the government to step in with some sort not for profit scheme to get people off the toxic rent cycle"
Do you mean something akin to... council housing available for reasonable rental fees instead of being sold, which reduces the stock of housing available? Shame that this never existed at any point in time eh.
@@pritapp788 On the other hand, if people own their own (former council) homes, they won't be claiming housing benefits.
The Costs in material and Labour are astronomical. A New build will cost 200K in materials and labour, meaning that to build taking into account land, time and loan costs, houses cant be sold for less than 400K. Hence very few building projects of quality and smaller and smaller living spaces....
It also puts pressures on housing in the south as house prices up north dont even make the pay grade, which accidentally puts pressure on the northern markets as new builds are not viable.
A new small kitchen will cost 20K minimum, not to mention bricks, roof, insulation, plaster, bathrooms, doors, fire protections, etc.
@@anthonylulham3473 that's exactly my point, if you had local government who weren't looking to make profit then you could have more affordable housing on the market
People are stuck with these awful new builds, alot are falling apart let alone falling short of housing standards
Essential services like housing have no place in a 'for profit' market
The government are the ones driving the problem, purposefully not building homes and letting the UK get fucked so they can add a few more zeros to their banks
One of the big problems is the lack of decently paid manual jobs. Not everyone is suited to a white collar job and there used to be plenty of alternative options in manufacturing. The conversion of the UK economy to a service based economy means that you now have people working in roles that don't really suit their personality or skill set, because there is a lack of other options. All that means is they do their job poorly and also drag down the efficiency of their colleagues. If there was greater diversity in decently paid jobs people would be able to find a career that suits them and they would perform better.
Absolutely true.
I can't stand the closed, stuffy atmosphere working in an office all day. I can't work a computer beyond the very basics, easily forgetting all the steps to processes like making documents, etc.
I'm just not cut out for a 5 day a week indoors job.
But at 57, female, and obviously one that would need to be paid at least a legal 'minimum' wage - I simply cannot get a job that suits.
Too young to get a pension, too old to be considered as able as a younger man, too fit to qualify for disability (despite the back and joint problems), and with absolutely no council plant nurseries (the sorts of places where I used to work before almost everywhere just bought cheap stock in from abroad - from the Netherlands to Israel to as far afield as you want really), there's nothing else out there for me.
No factories, no manufacturers. Shop jobs are decreasing as more cashiers go automated (my nearest local supermarket brought in 2 new self-scan registers only last week. So that's another job gone, profiting the company but impoverishing the town just that little bit more).
Shops are closing down in my local high street as things continue to go online or into warehouse type estates
Without any money coming in for myself from anywhere, I'm now stuck with trying artwork again.
(To be honest, I think it's a waste of time really. But I'm completely out of options).
40 years ago, I could take a bus a mile or two in any direction and get a job in a garden centre, a park, a factory or a shop. Now everything is cut so close to the bone you can see there's no marrow at the heart of the economy any more - only a load of businesses clamouring to replace people with as much machinery and computerisation as possible.
Decades ago, we were promised a future with jobs for all and more leisure time with people only needing to work 20 hours a week for full pay. Now, you're lucky if you get a 20 hour a week job, and then you have to get 2 more jobs to make ends meet.
Yet we are told there are shortages of plumbers, bricklayers, truck drivers and farm staff.
@@jamesthomas4841 In general those are still pretty highly skilled jobs so again not suitable for everyone. It's more the lower skilled manual labour jobs, that used to still pay a decent wage that we've lost.
Everyone of these videos feels like an existential end of days for the UK economy - trouble is Tejvan's cold analysis doesn't exaggerate or have any alarmist hyperbole - it really is that bad. I think the Tories really did have an economic plan to return us to a feudal state through a lack of investment and austerity planning. Trouble is there is not going to be a positive economic shock to get the wheels out of the mud - look forward to Eastern and Central Europe passing us soon on the GDP per capital values.
When and if those countries pass the U.K. in gdp per capita, they’ll also pass Italy, Spain and France. So why is it only the U.K. that has headlines about its weak growth
Maybe, but probably it was down to a lack of critical thinking or another way to put it is they didn't actually know what they were doing. Ideology over Logic.
No money left in 2010....UK bankrupt.
@@Alex-fm5keby all measures which have been corroborated as correct so far, France and Germany will remain far ahead of the UK in terms of GDP per capita.
Italy will remain behind the UK even in 2028, but despite that the EU average will surpass the UK by then anyway.
Isn’t Germany Central Europe?
Cause they and the Austrians have already surpassed you…
The NHS has not seen real term rise in funds. Private health-care providers sit on the NHS boards and fiddle money out of the NHS toward private providers, who get over 20% of the budget of the NHS for providing less than 10% of all services delivered.
Meh, open borders means NHS will die.
The UK been in Recession for years
Since 2008 ,,,
close to agree
Totally agree with that. That's the conservative for you. I be voting for Labour like many other people be doing. Conservative waste of space.
Nah, I disagree My family own a consultancy business in cambridge and business has been "booming" so much that we can support to buy my lil' sister a 2 bedroom apartment just on the outskirt of Watford and for we ourselves bought a 5 bedroom house . Just because you couldnt grow and take advantage of the opportunities in the past 5 years or so, stop blaming it on other people. Take a good look at yourself everymorning and think how to be better. Hahahahahah
the government claims that NHS spending has increase in real terms. But the money the actual NHS receives hasn't increased. Instead, that extra money labelled under "NHS" on the budget is going to private health providers chosen by the government and never even passing through the hands of the NHS. Private providers are obviously more expensive than the NHS per treatment to start with, but given the track record of this government and handing out money in contracts, you can imagine how much of this is just disappearing into offshore bank accounts for nothing in return
The nhs wasn’t built for 100 million it was built for 50million
Immigration 🤷🏽♂️
Why doesn’t parliament call in or sell the French loan? France hasn’t paid a penny since 1931, close to a trillion is owed now and that would fix every hospital, school and pothole.
Firms want super staff on less than minimum wages
It would be great to see some videos which generate ideas on how to transform the UK economy into a successful one. Appreciate the analysis but I think we're all aware of the diagnosis now and need to move onto the 'treatment' stage in the sick patient analogy.
I don't have a fully worked out program or anything, but I'd at least suggest instructing economists with the following brief:
1) Your first concern has to be raising the earning capacity of the median British worker. Explain in detail exactly how your proposals will achieve this. Don’t tell me something is “good for the economy” in some abstract sense. We’ve had too many economists propose policies which are supposedly “good for the economy”, but which don’t actually improve the lot of the average citizen.
2) Don’t worry about GDP, only GDP per capita. India has a higher GDP than Switzerland, but Switzerland has a higher GDP per capita. Economically, it’s better to be Switzerland. It’s inevitable that certain emerging economies with large populations will overtake the UK in terms of aggregate GPD. This doesn’t matter. Only GDP per capita matters.
Yeah, like try making stuff that people want to buy. Again.
I could talk for hours about this, but #1 thing to do is to divert investments into productivity instead of housing which is a FALSE wealth generator on a nation scale. Fixing this issue would solve a myriad of other issues. There are no ifs or buts, without productivity there is no bright future, AI, automation, high value industries is the only way, then you can finance housing, NHS, social credits, etc.
Substantially reducing immigration would be the first step. Just like here in Australia, excessive immigration puts undue stress on public services and infrastructure. With a rising population you'll only ever be worried about building more housing and roads for these people, rather than actually improving the services given to the average person and increasing productivity.
I think the next step would possibly be to reduce emigration out of the UK to other countries such as here in Australia. Many British doctors now work here and they enjoy much better wages, lower taxes and better living standards. It's easier to convince one's own skilled emigrants to stay rather than to convince others' skilled migrants to move to the UK.
I understand that immigration/emigration are only one part of the puzzle, but you can't really implement long-term solutions if your tax base keeps weakening in the first place.
@RK-bx1by part of the uks problem is it does not have enough people working and paying tax. The other part is a lack of investment from business and government [building infrastructure, factories etc and training].
Great video, informative, and looking smooth in the blazer!! 🙏
We had 0% interest rates and mass immigration into the UK for fully FIFTEEN years. It never shifted the dial on GDP.
And now we have a health, housing and sewage crisis.
It did shift the dial on GDP we had positive growth post 2008 dispite having stagnant wages and productivity. So therefore only way to increase GDP as we did was to import more people increase 1 of the 4 factors of production labour. Thus increasing the GDP
@@Toodyslexicforyou It was mega PFI borrowing which increased growth post 2008....not an ideal state of affairs as this boosted a crippling deficit. A chimera. But it always was a sticking plaster solution when you have socialists in charge.
Goes tits-up in the end. Ho hum!
@@Toodyslexicforyou the rate of growth of GDP in the years has shown that the growth is not at the level of Average brit. thus the GDP is increasing but GDP per person is decreasing and individual productivity is dropping, while increasing the demand for infrastructure.
More people does mean more money, but not the same rate of money per person, but all people need a home.
As Capt Jack Sparrow asks, 'What is My soul exactly worth?' - 'One Hundred souls....' comes Davey Jones' reply.
Not all people are equal in their value, and that's a bitter pill to swallow.
@@anthonylulham3473 infrastructure is payed by taxes. More people in the uk more taxes payed, thus more money for roads. More people more wear on roads. More money + more wear = cancelled out. BUT infact average migrant gives £2,304 more in tax to Gov than average Brit. Therefore, more migrants actually helping keep infrastructure alive.
@@anthonylulham3473 so if businesses are using cheap immigrant labour to bolster their profits, then who should pay for society's upkeep?
You don't sound like someone who wants to raise the minimum wage, or raise corporation taxes either.
Should we raise VAT and income taxes on the lowest paid then?
Great presentation as always. Thanks.
50 years in the EEC and the UK was constantly growing. 3 years of brexit has destroyed all the gains. It will get worse....
Brexit wrecked Germany also. Oh hold on....The Germany Green Party took over and now everything is going down.
I’ve been anticipating this video for a few days, thank you
Thank you for the video.
Do you have a podcast? I love your vids, use the info a lot to understand where we’re at and why. Keep doing what you do! It’s appreciated
As someone who runs a international business.
Our problem starts with attitudes.
I work in the automation and productivity space.
British people don't want to innovate and take ages to make a decision on something.
This prevents change and lessons to do better.
Many businesses prefer to operate by employing cheap labour than to maximise efficiency.
This follows to lower productivity per worker, lower wages and all round grim or no growth.
If you don't believe me follow the science.
UK is 2nd LOWEST in the whole of Europe for business investment. Only Greece is the worst.
Excellent clear concise presentation. Please leave graphs on screen longer.
Agree but pausing helps.
drink more beer
I think there are plenty of studies that show if people here didn’t have such horrible diets there would be farrrrrr less burden on NHS, and billions of pounds saved
People defend that shit food that isn't even food as far as I'm concerned.
Yeah it’s absolutely nothing to do with all the extra people we have in the UK, the infrastructure just can’t handle the massive influx it’s that simple!
@@randlepmcmurphy6117I said this would happen 20 years ago. We are a small country with an ageing infrastructure, why does the government think we can keep sustaining all these people?
@@randlepmcmurphy6117
They’re bringing migrants in because they need cheap Labour
Brits want £25/h and five trips to Italy in their work contracts. -_-
@@maalikserebryakov Don’t talk utter tripe! We want decent pay and working conditions yes, but the people coming in don’t even want to do a days work they want handouts.
GREAT video, keep it coming.
Great stuff!
A very interesting and educational channel. Thank you.
RS. Canada
Top lad another great video cheers 👌
Constructing additional high-rise apartments in urban areas using prefabricated modules and foreign labor could address housing shortages. Furthermore, such projects could provide tax revenue for local governments. Raising funds from citizens for improved living conditions is generally more acceptable than increasing income taxes. This method has been successfully employed in several Asian countries for many years. However, there are significant challenges to be addressed, including restrictions on importing labor and building regulations.
excellent way to explain current crisses
Yet corporate profits are through the roof 🎉
British gas yes. But, many are companies registered overseas ie Ireland * corporation tax 12%* so pay Zero tax on profits generated in UK
We are their serfs 😂
I really like how you explain complex topics in straight forward terms.
Thinking long term do you think it is possible for uk to adopt the norweigian model and have a sovereign reserve that could generate extra income?
Unfortunately, we missed the Norway boat. Oil is dwindling in UK.
@@economicshelp1 but wouldn't starting a soverign reserve fund based on the norweigan model help UK in the long term? If all public services were allowed to set up and develope a commercial arm that invests in local businesses to grow and develop with the profits going into a reserve with a percentage being used to find public services help to build the foundations for the future of the UK and put it on more stable terms? Norway didn't know 50 years ago where the soverign fund would lead to today.
thanks man!
Any government just cant Tax the hell out of everyone to grow an economy, there are far too many civil servants, civil servants that are taking the piss.
The economy has to grow through trade and business, not taxation.
I was clerk in the Civil Service , my first ever job in 1976....but....it was a back office non-job, virtually no work load, well paid dole money.
Layers of middle and senior management above me, similarly little work to do....they boasted how they could live off the mileage expenses
and leave their salary untouched at the bank, with gold-plated pension incoming!
This...under PM Wilson and Labour,...all the money ran out and off we went to the IMF for a bail-out!
The cause of recession in the UK is due to persistently high inflation, structural weakness in the labor market and low productivity growth. Until this is addressed, the world's sixth largest economy will remain in dire condition.
Isn't there little incentive to improve worker productivity, because of the availability of migrant labour ? If you haven't already, could you do a vid on productivity ?
Growth comes from creating demand. Supply will follow. Demand is created by giving More money to consumers or public investment. This in turn creates opportunities to the private sector. Money given to the rich, or to the companies is wasted. You will most likely never see it again. And that is why growth has decreased in the Western countries.
Housing is stupidly expensive.... all the money that could be used in economy... to start businesses, pay taxes... are given to some renters...or funds never to be seen again of course there is no demand... demand stops where high rents start
I struggle to understand how we can be so rich as a country and yet for many, many people so very poor. The present is looking very bleak and the future not much better. I don’t understand what other cuts the government can make, but this seems their only strategy to reduce debt/expenditure and that will make things even worse for those that rely on Government services. Great charts in this video by the way.
Brit here- I don't care what "experts" say. I, and every other brit I know, are well aware of the decline in the UK thats been going on since 2008.
The UK is slowly regressing to be on par with many of underdeveloped countries it once occupied.
So is most of europe
Its amazing that me, a 14 year old at the time, knew exactly what quantative easing would lead to, and yet we are supposed to believe that these people are haplessly falling backward into national degredation after national degredation.
Our problems are simple, at this point. The punishment for treason has been far too soft, for far too long.
luckily i have a few side hustles that are barely keeping me above water. and lots of work overtime but i know a lot are not that lucky
The side hustle:
Car jackings and burglaries
I work in construction and noticed a real slow down from spring 2023 onward.
The ONS don’t treat the CPI seriously anymore . They now use stratified actual total costs of living to include, mortgage , council taxes , rates, rents to look at the real inflation effects on individual household cohorts. That percentage is 2 % higher than the CPI.
Thank you for your time & efforts and unfortunately you paint a bleak picture, - which under the circumstances is the only option available to you. Thank you.
Polish wages are difficult to compare, because of the rapidly declining percentage of the substinence farms from relatively very high level.
Relatively high? or very high? It can’t be both
The UK needs to focus primarily on productivity and growth. As businesses are investing less in the private sector, public spending should be more than compensating for it now. We should aim to have one of the highest research and development budgets (as a share of GDP) in Europe and couple this with a ramping up of transport/infrastructure investment. Businesses are paying 25% corporation tax up from 19%, so total amount of extra revenue generated by this should be spent on public investment. Spending more money on the NHS and welfare now instead of wealth creation is self defeating as less wealth is being created to continue improving services in the future. We need a government brave enough to tackle the route causes of our economic problems head on even if it makes them temporary unpopular.
You mentioned the UKs issues are redeemable how do you think we can reverse this trend?
The conservative ministers should be charged with negligence. How they can say they are the fiscally responsible party is laughable
Reasons to be cheerful. There will be a change of government next year so we can expect more rational policy making, including ever increasing alignment with the EU, greater stability and hence more investment. Second, the UK high tech sector is bigger than that of France and Germany combined and the growth among mid sized companies should lead to more growth ( see the CEBR forecast). Third, the UK is ramping up wind generated electricity and will be a major exporter. Finally, at last there is a societal recognition of the importance of investing in vocational education.
I don’t like the use of GDP per capita as a measure of income. The average brit would not have an extra £8,000 a year if growth continued, GDP doesn’t take inequality into account or non market transactions. If gdp increased by a larger margin over that time period the average persons salary wouldn’t have increased by the same amount, not even close
The culmination of the failed economic model that has been the broad consensus for much of, but not all of the last forty-five years, low tax, small state, deregulated economy
Doesn't this latest recession vindicate liz Truss and kwartengs attempt to kick some life in the economy with their budget? But the markets said "no!".
Things like GDP are simply irrelevant to half the country making UPTO 30k which is peanuts in 2024. In reality the situation is horrible and most people are 50% poorer compared to 2010s
The UK could reduce the cost by calling a Border Poll as The North costs the Uk money, although I doubt that the North cost over 166% of its tax revenue, without some "creative accounting".
The difference of the North being in the UK or Ireland is the speed and ease of developing the region for each Government, for the uk it is a liability but to Ireland it would be an asset. In Ireland the North East would get more investment as Dublin and Belfast are about 100 miles apart but Belfast and London is about 500 miles with the Irish Sea in the middle as well. The IDA being able to get over 250 multi-million dollar investments into Ireland every year for the last 2 years so it would be able to get a lot of investment into Armagh and Down and agricultural rural areas like Tyrone would be back getting CAP and have access to Teagasc training and development, for example the Irish Government has allocated €3m in state investment in budget 2023 to help reach a target of 150 - 200 operational anaerobic digestion plants by 2030 so that about 10% of our current natural gas demand would be Bio-Methane. Antrim and Derry as well as Donegal would benefit from more Tourism particularly with Whale Watching and Deep-sea fishing off the North Coast, as well as the Giants Causeway being only 80 miles from the Boyne Valley. None of that can be done while the North is in the UK, very little tourists going to Scotland would do a day trip to Belfast or Derry as it requires a ferry journey or linking up operational anaerobic digestion plants with farms in Northern counties or set them up in the North to increase the catchment base..
Even if the Brits wanted to rejoin the EU isn't just going to agree. This is the UK's new normal so better get used to it.
You got valid points though Inflation is dilapidating. Quite sad what's happening in the market. Although, even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. The market circumstances are driving me insane, my portfolio has lost almost $13K this month alone, my earnings are tanking. I'd appreciate some financial advice from anyone who knows more going forward.
Are the looted colonial treasures and resources finished? Rest in peace, UK
I had a great life in 2009 for finance and now I am shrewed and careful with less resources but it's happening to so many of us and I am lucky. A nice blog. We've not seen the full Brexit problems yet. Hopefully in the election Tories will be held-to-account and that Labuor or Lib Dems will have a strong rejoin the EU campaign but I'm not hopeful.
The main issue is the low unemployment, companies can find employees to grow, let along hard working employees, the main stat we need to know is how many FULL TIME workers are there these days? Compared to non full time workers? To few trying to carry too many feels like a ever increasing problem, easy example 35mil ppl paying for the NHS for 55million is now 25million paying for NHS for 65million, the numbers will never add up, and of course free trade deals increase globalisation so company profits are declared outside the UK, ie Apple, Amazon, Microsoft etc etc these all add up
The prime minister is reluctant to increase employees wages because it would lead to increased inflation, detouring them from hitting their 2% inflation target. And the reason why taxes are so high despite reduced government investments public infrastructure projects is because of national debt. The interest rate in February 2024 was just 5.25% and accoutring the UK central bank they plan on maintain that rate for a while. Hence why their is reduced productivity in the UK because businesses are reluctant to borrow money from banks to fund their operations and invest in their workforce because it’s expensive. Invade you were wondering how they increase interest rates, the UK government uses a monetary policy called Quantitative tightening which is a process of selling or removing treasuries (government bonds) from balance sheets, to increase interest rates, which reduces the inflation rate. Which just shows the current priority of the UK government due to the housing crises, but by also increasing interest rates banks are more reluctant to give out mortgages to a younger workforce that in average has a starting salary of like £21,000/£23,000
Will if it goes by how busy Heathrow airport is at the moment its dier.Somethung going on.
How interesting!
Rising house prices = falling standard of life
ask the Economist magazine which has advice for better performing economies like Inida but cannot solve problems at home.
In simple macroeconomics: There is no C , no I, negative G and negative net exports . So that is all culminating in negative ( for decades). It’s a gonna.
The economy is one thing....I think we're seeing societal destruction that's never been seen in living memory. The economy is irrelevant if you don't have a country left worth saving.
Absolutely. Less people feel connected to the UK.
The UK has been in recession for as long as I can remember (I was born in 1957) and the current near 3 trillion pounds of national debt is recessionary and bankruptcy. You do not run an economy by exporting nothing, importing everything you need and borrowing on the world's financial markets to pay for it all. Not only is that unsustainable, it is immoral and so it was on moral grounds that I voted for Brexit. The EU were delighted that Brexit occurred because they no longer bail out the UK to the tune of 350 million euros a week. The UK needs to survive on its own resources but has very few; nobody owes UK residents a living, and if 99% of them live in dire poverty by 2030, so be it!
UK gave away £300 billion net to the Brussels greed, greed gravy train during 47 wasted years....plus massive trade deficits with EU.
Brexit was a vote for massively increasing poverty in UK - thank you for understanding what you voted for
I understood that 90% of the Covid money creation was via printing, not selling bonds. So only 10% of that 950bn needs ‘reversing’
Does make a mystery of the lack of discussion about 700bn of magic money though. An awkward conversation to have
The UK has surpassed 80% rentier economy for wealth extraction. This cannot be sustained for much longer without killing the host. Government policy will need the change to productivity, and ways to monatery stimulate demand at a low level injection to attain growth. The USA used student debt forgiveness to help in the creation of ground stimulus injection. Almost 138 billion dollars in debt relief has created increased demand in production rather than funneling payments to debt markets that don't touch economic growth.
Ending the marginal costing system for energy prices is literally the most direct way to turbo charge the economy
We have a lot of massive housing projects with no infrastructure.
14 years of no infrastructure spending. I wonder why.
@@chrysalis4126HS2?....The wrong type of infrastructure....
@@eddieharris6004the right idea badly done
Almost like mass unwanted immigration is totally ruinous.
Isn´t the unemployment rate around 5m if you count the numbers on disability benefits.
disabilty is not unemployment but ill health totaly different thing as some are to disabled to work ..jeff...
allowing access to pension pots at 55 (soon to be 57) is the main reason for economic inactivity. This is a worrying time bomb as people fail to invest the money in a sustainable way and will ultimately stop spending and depend on state income, Your analysis of this would be very interesting
Good point. I think the property market swallowing so much cash/investment is a real drag on what could otherwise be productive enterprise making and selling things.
A country that manufactures nothing and barely grows any foods, lived well but it can’t fool or rob the world forever, it needs to change before it can improve
American in UK - Americans on average work hard & long. Here in UK, people are lot more relaxed- hardly see anyone striving - no wonder there is hardly any industry - Brexit was another disaster for UK
Last one out please switch off the lights
I had an interview with an Australian company last year for a role that pays £70k , the same role pays £35k in the UK, that tells you how low wages are in the UK 😅😂
The UK is sinking like the Titanic. I can hear the band playing
The depressing fact is that Labour aren't offering anything new to try and improve the situation.
Me;
*Passionate worker.
*Persistent.
*Kinda guy who just puts his head down and works until the job is done.
*Many good qualifications including an ECDL and four or five computer qualifications.
Job prospects;
*Shelf stacker.
*Trolley pusher.
*Cleaner.
*Glorified errand boy.
I’m fucking seething.
It seems like Canada is on the same boat, but I am not sure which one is worse.
ts odd, I battle to understand why the UK is doing so badly by some measures, yet unemployment remains low. I lived there 20 years ago and we were thinking of returning, but I look at the UK and I see a country with many challenges and an apparent lack of leadership needed to solve them. The attractiveness of the UK has definitely declined in my opinion, and I am British. I currently live in South Africa, a country not exactly great in many respects, but I still prefer it to the UK. To be fair, I have several friends from Germany and France who also prefer South Africa to their countries, I really am puzzled as to what has happened to these countries. I susupect the overly enthusiasticly applied lockd0wns and the insane levels of spending around those may be part of the issue, immigration seems to be out of control and there is a seeming total lack of any real leadership with any real ideas that make any sense in soilving the issues. It just seems that the UK has got to find another Thatcher to sort the issues out, someone with strength and a clear vision of a solution, the current crop of politicians are not really up to much I fear. But I hasten to add that I am no expert, I just hope the country, and Europe can solve their issues as they are a major source of stability in the world.
Unemployment is more like 20% but they manipulate the figures by saying these people out of work can't work, they're too sick, too old, too young, too whatever they need to say.
The sound quality on these videos is very poor
My calculations predict inflation will go back up to 6%, god dam
So in old terms 20-25% before they changed it as saw this coming
In just 7 weeks, it will be just 1.4%
Net immigration expected to be 600K this year? 🤣
Just got a job whose salary is literally the same as it was 10 years ago. And no, I've never had more than this.
Housing is soo expensive and salaries so low that migrants dont even think about moving in there... UK needs deep economy crisis cleansing, i bet most of the youngs wish that also... in this age we young have no future in europe
Havent recovered from Thatcher. It might take another 50 years to recover from Sunak and Johnson and Cameron
Inflation is down, Rushi.. British gas 10 times more profits not helping causing inflation honestly would they tell you anything honestly
There is a reason why we have low wealth taxes (and we are talking billionaires or at least those with £100m of assets).
It's because of their political influence. Our PM is a billionaire and the house of lords is littered with them. These people are not going to allow their wealth to be taxed. Some of them pay less tax than you do because their income is largely unearned and derived from existing wealth. They will not suffer inheritance tax on their demise due to pre planned avoidance.
So how do we get rid of privilege, corruption, the economic caste system and the archaic feudal lords system?
Most of those with an Anglo Saxon work ethic have retired. Replaced by grifters and soft millennials doing tippy tappy jobs. The UK used to make loads of stuff but it appears that our main industry is charging extortionate sums to foreign student for often mediocre or pointless higher education
I wonder if a Javier Milei would solve the problems? It seems the UK and the West as a whole hs so many regulations, too much government involvement in the economy and generally massive bureaucracy and perhaps a massive cut in the overheads created by that would get things moving again? I just think for a small business it must be absolute hell trying to function in Europe and the UK. Perhaps a new, streamlined, less socialist? approach may wake the economy up.
I'd love to see it happen and it's why I'm keeping an eye on Argentina. They've posted their 1st budget surplus in the past 12 years and that's after a month or 2 of him being in power, lets see what happens.