Prolific once again JP. Much appreciated. I saw an interesting report on the value of the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. Apparently these oblasts are the “breadbasket” for domestic food production for much of Western and Central russia. Also, the fall harvest is due to start in just a couple of weeks. I’m thinking this incursion may put a damper on any harvesting this fall?
They can 1-1 trade border length. So long as they can widen the bulge. Once they can no longer widen, they must stop extending. Also consider rivers and logistic chokepoints. You can "shorten" your defensive lines if you replace land with a terrain barrier, even a partial one like a river. It is easier to defend a river than an open field. If they are clever and use fast advances and careful bridge demolition, they could keep this up for some time while actually reducing their exposure/front.
I was about to make a similar comment before I saw yours. In effect, Ukraine has moved their border inside Russia, they no longer need to defend the actual Ukraininan border, so those resources can be moved forward to defend the new "border", which Ukraine can choose to some extent based on favourable geography for defence purposes. There will be an overhead in relation to logistics and civilian population management (policing, courts, medical, for example), but nothing too demanding. Better still if they can get international NGOs on the ground to help with that and monitor the conditions for civilians (something Russia would not allow in the territory occupied by them, for obvious reasons).
Interesting times right now. Think everyone underestimated the ingenuity of the Ukrainians several times during this war. They’ve got massive balls and we could learn so much from them! Thanks for the updates.
18:30 A longer front line? Mate, if they close that pocket following the river, the front line becomes a bit smaller, no? Anyhow, another great one man, thanks!
I suppose if Ukraine bulges into Kursk it will extend them snd put soldiers in each settlement, but if the whole border moved 40 km inland and the area is smoothed out, then this should reduce the no of troops required to fend the bordet.
Also, if Ukraine can take up to the river, they will have reduced the border they might have to defend in this area by about 50% (as opposed to the present border), and also would then have a river as a very strong natural barrier. The entire Gleshkovo area would be extremely difficult for Russia to recapture; assaults across a river are very perilous; probably far more defensible then the other areas in Kursk oblast presently under Ukrainian control.
10:09 and Ukraines soldiers if far better trained on average, as they care, they got trained by Western instructors, and as they stay alive far longer they got time to learn and teach others. They are also far better equipped.
7:20 to get really good at maneuver warfare it takes years or training, russia sending in newly mobilized and conscripts is simply perfect for Ukraine. That won’t have much of a chance stopping Ukraine but they will get turned in to good russians or POW’s in big numbers for relatively little cost for Ukraine, while they will donate useful equipment.
Great report. Interesting at every point. Kept my attention all the way through. I admit I zone out sometimes when talking about losses of military equipment etc.
Hi JP hope your well. I'm sure you have heard about the FSB Kill list for Ukraine Bloggers by now and I hope your taking it seriously, take the appropriate preclusions. If your overseas on holiday call your consulate etc. Stay safe !
When Putin claimed annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts, they 'legally', in Russian law, became part of the RF. Therefore conscripts could have been sent to defend the 'new RF oblasts' in Ukraine, but Putin knew that this would be domestically politically disastrous.
Ballard, a neighborhood in Seattle, has a statue of Lenin. Possibly the most colorful statue of Lenin in the World. And Fremont, another Seattle neighborhood, has a statue of a Troll. Under the George Washington Bridge. Which draws more tourists.
That whole area south of the river has been in my sights for days. The genius of the Ukrainians is that they took the territory east of it first (I thought they'd come in from the west). They now don't even have to attack, the land is effectively isolated already.
Jonathon, I think you're right who blinks first, but the Ukraine infrastructure and people have hada preparation time of over 2 1/2 years : Russia has had a matter of days to prepare for an attack, the only place I think might be safe is Moscow. Russia is under pressure but Putin to protect his power has put weak Military Leadership in place, to minimise the risk of a Prigozhin type Coup. So Putin may have played his best cards, a weak Military leadership may now catch up with Putin. Another point, the speed of the Ukraine Kursk attack, means Russia has no time to recruit foreign nationals, using Russians, West Russians is going to affect support and Putins power base.
Jonathan, i'd really like if you once would explain how and with what kind of equipment Ukraine could do a landing on Crimea ! That seems totally unrealistic to me. But please explain and i can change my mind ...
To be determined for sure. I wonder if Ukraine should start with taking out the bridge before any thought of a Crimea invasion (assuming it could be done). Would this induce mass panic in Crimea and cause the whole road system in occupied southern Ukraine to become clogged with russians trying to flee into russia proper? I wonder if that would be a more favorable scenario if an incursion into Crimea could be attempted. Just a thought from an American with a zero military mind. Cheers
I agree that Russia is weaker than it seems.As you have questioned before ,how much is Putler really informed as to capabilities?Still optimistic, Zelensky's upping the ante has if nothing else brought Ukraine back into the media with it seems to me to be mostly positive.If they can continue to roll along the border not necessarily going very deep they can at least back off artillery and aircraft.Enjoy your last day of semi relaxation.Thanks from Grindstone JP.SLAVA UKRAINE!!
i think the resion why we dont see Valery Gerasimov is that he might be not brean dead but deminished might even be dead like wargonzo cant replace him or even admit it becouse no one cant replace him or no one willing to do it. this is the first signs of an army collapsing that and mass surrendering there is lots of signs its happing to russia army like no food for the army no wepons ammo kinda like germany in ww1 and ww2
i would like to point out that germany in ww1 was finnished in 1917 and after kursk in 1944/45 not sure when that took place but just becouse you can feld mass armys and conduct limited attacks like ww1 1917/18 german offence that killed any chance for a better peace army was in full retreat and was shattered logisticly and i think we seeing this in the russian army
JP, by cutting off the land north of tetkino, and taking out the bridge over the river they do three things, first lots of inexperienced troops to capture , it also shortens the frontlines by occupying up to the river and provides a very strong barrier ,and third creates the buffer zone with land to trade ,, ok so that's five things
The talk about landing in and taking Crimea. I don’t see how right now. Even if they get troops there, what next? There won’t be a way to get equipment, ammo and supplies there. They couldn’t even do that over the Dnipro. How can they do it over a huge distance on the Black Sea. I look forward to the retaking of Crimea, but I don’t see it for a while yet. I’m open to being surprised, however. 😊
About the increase of the front line: the front line is increased only as long as the occupied territory in Kursk has this "hump" shape. When Ukrainians progress to the East underneath the Seym river (where the bridges are destroyed) until they reach the border again then the front does not become longer than it was before the incursion into Kursk. The front would be just somewhere else.
I agree with the fact the ruSSia has not enough troops to react correctly in Kursk. But on the Pokrovsk front i'm very concerned by the current situation. They could loose a part or all of the Donbass fortresses they still hold, Toretsk, Konstantitivka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar and then how to defend Kramatorsk and Sloviansk ? With what ?
18:35 that is indeed a weird statement, if they cut off the area you suggested they will actually shorten the frontline and they will have a river to make russian counterattacks more difficult! Even if they go deeper in to russia and the front won’t get that much longer. russia is even more overstretched. If they wanna use conscripts and newly mobilized that can mainly defend a position of do strength on attacks. They will need 50.000+ soldiers to try to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs, if Ukraine use 5.000 soldiers in maneuver battalions mainly, they can challenge a huge area without actively holding it as such.
Ukraine have btw had to man the border the whole time, russia didn’t really this will require russia to start doing so. They don’t have the manpower to do so.
Agree with you Johnatan, Russian Federation is one little nudge from falling over. The whole thing is a giant house of cards, always has been since its foundation.
Jon, I can't wait for the meme of: this is what liberation looks like when Ukraine does it (folks shopping in stocked stores, Ukraine military stopping by to drop off food and essentials, checking on the old folks,etc...) and this is "liberation" when russia does it (footage of , well, anywhere russia has "liberated anywhere...)
At this point, I think the Russians are more willing to lose their own territory than to give Ukraine any back. They are betting that if they can keep pushing in the east, eventually Ukraine will have to negotiate and give Kursk back anyway, so they are willing to commit just enough troops to keep Ukraine from marching all the way to the city of Kursk. But as you say, they are in a very fragile situation, and may not be playing with a good hand.
I get your analysis and logic about the challenges for Ukrainian not being too successful, but they already have to defend hundreds of miles from the edge of Belarus border all the way down to kherson
More importantly, if ukraine pushes up to that river, it's a very defensible position. Ukraine will only need a fraction of the men to defend a river front like that, especially during the wetter months, then what they would need to defend an open border consisting of just fields and open land
Johnathan, I share you concern about the danger of Ukrainian troops being too successful in gobbling up Russian territory. However, we don't know the purpose (apparently nobody does) of this excursion into Russian territory. So best we can do is assume they have a well thought out plan. One thing is for sure, they have definitely stirred the pot, and made things a lot more interesting. Given that I don't think Ukraine plans on keeping this Russian territory, while Putin does plan on keeping Ukrainian territory, I have my doubts that Putin actually cares too much about this incursion. I think it's more likely that this is just another crisis (not made up, or false flag), that he can take advantage of. Maybe it will make forced conscription easier for him. Or, on the bright side, maybe this will be one plate in the air too many for him, and he'll finally crack, or be crushed by his own people.
13:30 Spot on JP. Ukraini knew. Also look how they make cauldron along side the borders. Move behind defense lines. Conscripts POW exhange funds. Move the Ukraini borderguards and defense up to the russian defense lines adding a free secondary defense line in case of. Easier logistics and POW intake. Save on manpower so incursion force can keep focus on moving on, momentum. 😊
Jonathan, I have not attended to Ukraine news as much as before because of time limitations, so I'm wondering if the armored med-vacs refurbished for the Ukraine army have been delivered yet? If so, was there any live footage of the delivery and where can it be seen? Thank you, Richard
Hi Jonathan thank you for keeping us informed. I think the whole point of the Kursk invasion is two fold. First to make Russia spread their forces even more and therefore weaken themselves. Second is to give themselves a much better bargaining position.
Ukraine now controls more total land area than it did 9 months ago. This follows just 9 days worth of Ukrainian offensive operations. Russia has been on the offensive trying to take more land area for the entirety of those 9 months. Despite those 9 straight months of Russian offensive operations, Russia now controls less total land area than it did 9 months ago.
In reference to the Pokrovsk area: “In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten. Then he who continues the attack wins.” U.S. President and General Ulysses Grant
Thanks JP. I'm guessing the Russians saw this coming a few days ago which is why they ordered an evacuation in this area to the West of the Ukrainian incursion, but no major evacuations to the East of it
The WAR in Kursk already taken the wheat harvest off line in Russias wheat belt heartland of Kursk and Belogrord. Moscow the price of a loaf will triple. Inflation is 18% and climbing. The Ruble lost 11% comparable to the Dollar in one week. Putin has until 2026 and no further. Its unsustainable. 🍞
If Ukraine can take the whole area south of the river to the west of the currently occupies area, that will actually shorten the frontline and have a river along it so it would be easier to defend.
What does General Syrski know? He’s not a dumb man. All contingencies had to be evaluated and planned for accordingly. Is this a desperate gamble? Is it worth losing many fortresses in the east? This IS a calculated incursion. A calculation that has taken into effect all scenarios.
Jonathan.... It remains my opinion that Ukraine has made a huge b blunder in its invasion of Kursk, and now that they are making a further, perhaps worse, mistake, engaging offensively in Belgorod. It was not what Ukraine ought to have done, and I firmly believe it serves Russian interests, and will do immense damage to Ukraine in the sum total of what is most probably playing out and will play out in the theater as a whole.
24:28 as I said on the first day of Ukraines invasion of Kursk, the railway’s is already under Ukraines control or soon to be. I guess if they wanna destroy them, the timer and especially metal could be super useful for construction of bunkers and fortifications.
As the russian railways are struggling with Capacity then Ukraine and Partisans need to keep focussing on Relay Boxes! It takes weeks at least to repair them not days as is the case for blowing up Tracks and Weeks to replace them is in the Best of times not Sanctioned to Fook lol
Ukraine just needs to ramp up the pressure on Putin now using any means necessary! If the regional heads get into a position where they have leverage over Putin things will take a sharp turn!
JP, I think the invasion/incursion does not thin out the Ukrainian units or logistics because once they straighten out the salient the front line will be similar in distance to the international border. It looks like the AFU have identified key choke points to prevent Russian reinforcements. These towns are Russian and their destruction by Russian glide bombs will hurt Russian pride. If Russia's unit of success is a square km of gained territory then this move by Ukraine is cheap, effective and I think sustainable.
I believe you are right. Those young conscrpits are valuable bargaining chips. Children from Moscow and Saint Petersburg are worth more. Putler has a dilemma.
I suspect more Russians will surrender, conscripts and refuseniks. General Syrskyi is know for being a planner so taking over Sudza which is a critical town to control the railways makes perfect sense.
There is enough strength from regular contract army to stop the advances in Kursk, but so far, Putin has been unwilling to commit that strength (it would be by taking forces off the front in Donbas. Ukraine has put Putin in a difficult choice position, but he still has a choice: 1) continue using conscripts and losing land in Kursk OR 2) abandon offensive in Donbas and bring those troops up to Kursk to stop the UAF advance.... He cannot do both, but he can easily do either. What will he do?
Thank you for keeping me and everyone else informed. We greatly appreciate it!
Thank you Jonathan ❤ We appreciate you ❤ Love to all ❤
Slava Ukraini ✊️ Heroyam Slava ✊️ 🇬🇧 ❤ 🇺🇦
Always good to hear your responsible and lucid work. Many thanks.
Every day that goes by this looks more and more clever
Prolific once again JP. Much appreciated. I saw an interesting report on the value of the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. Apparently these oblasts are the “breadbasket” for domestic food production for much of Western and Central russia. Also, the fall harvest is due to start in just a couple of weeks. I’m thinking this incursion may put a damper on any harvesting this fall?
That’s a really good point!
They're big regions, so probably not.
Good Evening Jonathan and the ATP Team.Greg Terry had a quick livestream
🥈👏👏👏👏👍😊
They can 1-1 trade border length. So long as they can widen the bulge. Once they can no longer widen, they must stop extending. Also consider rivers and logistic chokepoints. You can "shorten" your defensive lines if you replace land with a terrain barrier, even a partial one like a river. It is easier to defend a river than an open field. If they are clever and use fast advances and careful bridge demolition, they could keep this up for some time while actually reducing their exposure/front.
Methinks, you might have discovered their plans. But, don't tell the Ruskies about it.
I was about to make a similar comment before I saw yours. In effect, Ukraine has moved their border inside Russia, they no longer need to defend the actual Ukraininan border, so those resources can be moved forward to defend the new "border", which Ukraine can choose to some extent based on favourable geography for defence purposes. There will be an overhead in relation to logistics and civilian population management (policing, courts, medical, for example), but nothing too demanding. Better still if they can get international NGOs on the ground to help with that and monitor the conditions for civilians (something Russia would not allow in the territory occupied by them, for obvious reasons).
Evening JP thanks for all your efforts 👍😊
Thanks for covering the East -bad as it is it's important to know
The ruskies creep forward with huge losses in Donetsk and Ukraine strides forward with fewer losses in Kursk.
MUGA! Thanks Jonathan!
Most appreciated mate
Loving your content,good to see your on holiday I didn't think you would be putting any videos up during your holiday
Interesting times right now. Think everyone underestimated the ingenuity of the Ukrainians several times during this war. They’ve got massive balls and we could learn so much from them! Thanks for the updates.
18:30 A longer front line? Mate, if they close that pocket following the river, the front line becomes a bit smaller, no? Anyhow, another great one man, thanks!
Thank you for the update.
🥉👏👏👏👏👍😊
Thank you for your coverage and insights
🇪🇺🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🇬🇧
Thanks, Jonathan, as always. Glad to hear some hopeful news.
20:16 "Sorry to interrupt myself" How very British! Love it.
Sorry for being sorry
@@ATPGeowhoa buddy, now you're sounding Canadian 🍁
Hi, all Slava Ukraini ✊🇺🇦
Slava Ukraini, from Denmark
An excellent strategic analysis of russian troop capabilities this evening JP.
The DATA is everything.
Thanks Jonathan. 🇺🇦 Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
I think you are underestimating the planning strategy of the UA! To me, it seems like the action is well-planned and deliberate!
I feel the same and trust the AFU completely.
If the borders change does it really expand the lines needed to be defended or just move them?
I suppose if Ukraine bulges into Kursk it will extend them snd put soldiers in each settlement, but if the whole border moved 40 km inland and the area is smoothed out, then this should reduce the no of troops required to fend the bordet.
Also, if Ukraine can take up to the river, they will have reduced the border they might have to defend in this area by about 50% (as opposed to the present border), and also would then have a river as a very strong natural barrier. The entire Gleshkovo area would be extremely difficult for Russia to recapture; assaults across a river are very perilous; probably far more defensible then the other areas in Kursk oblast presently under Ukrainian control.
10:09 and Ukraines soldiers if far better trained on average, as they care, they got trained by Western instructors, and as they stay alive far longer they got time to learn and teach others.
They are also far better equipped.
Crazy world JP
You’re my anchor 🙏🇺🇦💪👏
7:20 to get really good at maneuver warfare it takes years or training, russia sending in newly mobilized and conscripts is simply perfect for Ukraine.
That won’t have much of a chance stopping Ukraine but they will get turned in to good russians or POW’s in big numbers for relatively little cost for Ukraine, while they will donate useful equipment.
hiya JP! keep on keeping on! ;-)
Great report. Interesting at every point. Kept my attention all the way through. I admit I zone out sometimes when talking about losses of military equipment etc.
Thanks JP appreciate all you do, keep up the great work 💪 Slava Ukraini 💙💛
Brilliant news, thanks for sharing
Hi JP hope your well. I'm sure you have heard about the FSB Kill list for Ukraine Bloggers by now and I hope your taking it seriously, take the appropriate preclusions. If your overseas on holiday call your consulate etc. Stay safe !
I've not heard...
When Putin claimed annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts, they 'legally', in Russian law, became part of the RF. Therefore conscripts could have been sent to defend the 'new RF oblasts' in Ukraine, but Putin knew that this would be domestically politically disastrous.
Ballard, a neighborhood in Seattle, has a statue of Lenin.
Possibly the most colorful statue of Lenin in the World. And Fremont, another Seattle neighborhood, has a statue of a Troll. Under the George Washington Bridge. Which draws more tourists.
That whole area south of the river has been in my sights for days. The genius of the Ukrainians is that they took the territory east of it first (I thought they'd come in from the west). They now don't even have to attack, the land is effectively isolated already.
Hi, Jon & Team.
Jonathon, I think you're right who blinks first, but the Ukraine infrastructure and people have hada preparation time of over 2 1/2 years : Russia has had a matter of days to prepare for an attack, the only place I think might be safe is Moscow.
Russia is under pressure but Putin to protect his power has put weak Military Leadership in place, to minimise the risk of a Prigozhin type Coup. So Putin may have played his best cards, a weak Military leadership may now catch up with Putin.
Another point, the speed of the Ukraine Kursk attack, means Russia has no time to recruit foreign nationals, using Russians, West Russians is going to affect support and Putins power base.
Jonathan, i'd really like if you once would explain how and with what kind of equipment Ukraine could do a landing on Crimea ! That seems totally unrealistic to me. But please explain and i can change my mind ...
To be determined for sure. I wonder if Ukraine should start with taking out the bridge before any thought of a Crimea invasion (assuming it could be done). Would this induce mass panic in Crimea and cause the whole road system in occupied southern Ukraine to become clogged with russians trying to flee into russia proper? I wonder if that would be a more favorable scenario if an incursion into Crimea could be attempted. Just a thought from an American with a zero military mind. Cheers
I agree. I don't think it feasible
I agree that Russia is weaker than it seems.As you have questioned before ,how much is Putler really informed as to capabilities?Still optimistic, Zelensky's upping the ante has if nothing else brought Ukraine back into the media with it seems to me to be mostly positive.If they can continue to roll along the border not necessarily going very deep they can at least back off artillery and aircraft.Enjoy your last day of semi relaxation.Thanks from Grindstone JP.SLAVA UKRAINE!!
i think the resion why we dont see Valery Gerasimov is that he might be not brean dead but deminished might even be dead like wargonzo cant replace him or even admit it becouse no one cant replace him or no one willing to do it.
this is the first signs of an army collapsing that and mass surrendering there is lots of signs its happing to russia army like no food for the army no wepons ammo kinda like germany in ww1 and ww2
i would like to point out that germany in ww1 was finnished in 1917 and after kursk in 1944/45 not sure when that took place but just becouse you can feld mass armys and conduct limited attacks like ww1 1917/18 german offence that killed any chance for a better peace army was in full retreat and was shattered logisticly and i think we seeing this in the russian army
Love your work
JP, by cutting off the land north of tetkino, and taking out the bridge over the river they do three things, first lots of inexperienced troops to capture , it also shortens the frontlines by occupying up to the river and provides a very strong barrier ,and third creates the buffer zone with land to trade ,, ok so that's five things
The talk about landing in and taking Crimea. I don’t see how right now. Even if they get troops there, what next? There won’t be a way to get equipment, ammo and supplies there. They couldn’t even do that over the Dnipro. How can they do it over a huge distance on the Black Sea. I look forward to the retaking of Crimea, but I don’t see it for a while yet. I’m open to being surprised, however. 😊
Thanks
🇬🇧❤🇺🇦
About the increase of the front line: the front line is increased only as long as the occupied territory in Kursk has this "hump" shape. When Ukrainians progress to the East underneath the Seym river (where the bridges are destroyed) until they reach the border again then the front does not become longer than it was before the incursion into Kursk. The front would be just somewhere else.
I agree with the fact the ruSSia has not enough troops to react correctly in Kursk. But on the Pokrovsk front i'm very concerned by the current situation. They could loose a part or all of the Donbass fortresses they still hold, Toretsk, Konstantitivka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar and then how to defend Kramatorsk and Sloviansk ? With what ?
18:35 that is indeed a weird statement, if they cut off the area you suggested they will actually shorten the frontline and they will have a river to make russian counterattacks more difficult!
Even if they go deeper in to russia and the front won’t get that much longer.
russia is even more overstretched.
If they wanna use conscripts and newly mobilized that can mainly defend a position of do strength on attacks. They will need 50.000+ soldiers to try to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs, if Ukraine use 5.000 soldiers in maneuver battalions mainly, they can challenge a huge area without actively holding it as such.
Ukraine have btw had to man the border the whole time, russia didn’t really this will require russia to start doing so. They don’t have the manpower to do so.
With the Lenin statue there is this statement: Even Lenin walked away from the Ukrainian Attack. I love that !
Agree with you Johnatan, Russian Federation is one little nudge from falling over. The whole thing is a giant house of cards, always has been since its foundation.
Jon, I can't wait for the meme of: this is what liberation looks like when Ukraine does it (folks shopping in stocked stores, Ukraine military stopping by to drop off food and essentials, checking on the old folks,etc...) and this is "liberation" when russia does it (footage of , well, anywhere russia has "liberated anywhere...)
At this point, I think the Russians are more willing to lose their own territory than to give Ukraine any back. They are betting that if they can keep pushing in the east, eventually Ukraine will have to negotiate and give Kursk back anyway, so they are willing to commit just enough troops to keep Ukraine from marching all the way to the city of Kursk. But as you say, they are in a very fragile situation, and may not be playing with a good hand.
I get your analysis and logic about the challenges for Ukrainian not being too successful, but they already have to defend hundreds of miles from the edge of Belarus border all the way down to kherson
Ugh, if I hear another person say that Washington is concerned about the Kursk offensive being too successful, I think I will tear my hair out!
Thanks Jonathan 👍 Putin's face after hearing the pleas of russian mothers begging to save their conscripts 🤫 🥱
Slava ukraini 🔱💪🇺🇦🇵🇱🇨🇵🇬🇧🇪🇺✌️
More importantly, if ukraine pushes up to that river, it's a very defensible position. Ukraine will only need a fraction of the men to defend a river front like that, especially during the wetter months, then what they would need to defend an open border consisting of just fields and open land
Johnathan, I share you concern about the danger of Ukrainian troops being too successful in gobbling up Russian territory. However, we don't know the purpose (apparently nobody does) of this excursion into Russian territory. So best we can do is assume they have a well thought out plan. One thing is for sure, they have definitely stirred the pot, and made things a lot more interesting.
Given that I don't think Ukraine plans on keeping this Russian territory, while Putin does plan on keeping Ukrainian territory, I have my doubts that Putin actually cares too much about this incursion. I think it's more likely that this is just another crisis (not made up, or false flag), that he can take advantage of. Maybe it will make forced conscription easier for him. Or, on the bright side, maybe this will be one plate in the air too many for him, and he'll finally crack, or be crushed by his own people.
13:30 Spot on JP. Ukraini knew.
Also look how they make cauldron along side the borders. Move behind defense lines. Conscripts POW exhange funds. Move the Ukraini borderguards and defense up to the russian defense lines adding a free secondary defense line in case of. Easier logistics and POW intake. Save on manpower so incursion force can keep focus on moving on, momentum. 😊
JP ,
Can you lodge a partition on the uk gov website to send more Challenger tanks.
100k signitures forces to government to debate it.
Jonathan,
I have not attended to Ukraine news as much as before because of time limitations, so I'm wondering if the armored med-vacs refurbished for the Ukraine army have been delivered yet? If so, was there any live footage of the delivery and where can it be seen?
Thank you,
Richard
If they take everything south of the river, the front line will be the sane as it was before Ukraine went into kursk...just look at the map
Hi Jonathan thank you for keeping us informed. I think the whole point of the Kursk invasion is two fold. First to make Russia spread their forces even more and therefore weaken themselves. Second is to give themselves a much better bargaining position.
Occupation of Sudzha gives Ukraine access to rail information far down the lines east of Belgrod.
Ukraine now controls more total land area than it did 9 months ago. This follows just 9 days worth of Ukrainian offensive operations.
Russia has been on the offensive trying to take more land area for the entirety of those 9 months. Despite those 9 straight months of Russian offensive operations, Russia now controls less total land area than it did 9 months ago.
weather will start before long
In reference to the Pokrovsk area:
“In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten. Then he who continues the attack wins.”
U.S. President and General Ulysses Grant
👋
Hope that the Ua Marines that trained with the Royal Marines weren't used up in Krynky and are training up for next years Offensives!
Thanks JP. I'm guessing the Russians saw this coming a few days ago which is why they ordered an evacuation in this area to the West of the Ukrainian incursion, but no major evacuations to the East of it
The WAR in Kursk already taken the wheat harvest off line in Russias wheat belt heartland of Kursk and Belogrord. Moscow the price of a loaf will triple. Inflation is 18% and climbing. The Ruble lost 11% comparable to the Dollar in one week. Putin has until 2026 and no further. Its unsustainable. 🍞
If Ukraine can take the whole area south of the river to the west of the currently occupies area, that will actually shorten the frontline and have a river along it so it would be easier to defend.
What does General Syrski know? He’s not a dumb man. All contingencies had to be evaluated and planned for accordingly. Is this a desperate gamble? Is it worth losing many fortresses in the east? This IS a calculated incursion. A calculation that has taken into effect all scenarios.
Jonathan.... It remains my opinion that Ukraine has made a huge b blunder in its invasion of Kursk, and now that they are making a further, perhaps worse, mistake, engaging offensively in Belgorod. It was not what Ukraine ought to have done, and I firmly believe it serves Russian interests, and will do immense damage to Ukraine in the sum total of what is most probably playing out and will play out in the theater as a whole.
24:28 as I said on the first day of Ukraines invasion of Kursk, the railway’s is already under Ukraines control or soon to be.
I guess if they wanna destroy them, the timer and especially metal could be super useful for construction of bunkers and fortifications.
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If Ukraine can move west from the Kursk smo it can smooth out its border!
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i think your voice tells the true story ......
If Ukraine keeps heading north back to Ukraine lines cutting out the lump the front would be shorter
They can build quickly army floating bridge 😓. Not enougth
As the russian railways are struggling with Capacity then Ukraine and Partisans need to keep focussing on Relay Boxes! It takes weeks at least to repair them not days as is the case for blowing up Tracks and Weeks to replace them is in the Best of times not Sanctioned to Fook lol
Ukraine just needs to ramp up the pressure on Putin now using any means necessary! If the regional heads get into a position where they have leverage over Putin things will take a sharp turn!
JP, I think the invasion/incursion does not thin out the Ukrainian units or logistics because once they straighten out the salient the front line will be similar in distance to the international border. It looks like the AFU have identified key choke points to prevent Russian reinforcements. These towns are Russian and their destruction by Russian glide bombs will hurt Russian pride.
If Russia's unit of success is a square km of gained territory then this move by Ukraine is cheap, effective and I think sustainable.
How is Ukraine doing as far as recruitment of new brigades?
Ukraine taking that land upto the river will give Ukraine an easily defendable new border
Kaputinik time.
Algo
I believe you are right. Those young conscrpits are valuable bargaining chips. Children from Moscow and Saint Petersburg are worth more. Putler has a dilemma.
Wonder what the russian Train drivers Union has to say about their members going into Warzones?
Start Digging
In a Kleptocracy like Russia, everything appears to be legal.
I suspect more Russians will surrender, conscripts and refuseniks.
General Syrskyi is know for being a planner so taking over Sudza which is a critical town to control the railways makes perfect sense.
Ukraine gets degraded, but they get new gear. The Russians are degraded faster and only have north korea to re supply them 😂😂
A dilemma for putler no good solutions. Use the conscripts or not. A year from now we will know the true impact on russian society.
There is enough strength from regular contract army to stop the advances in Kursk, but so far, Putin has been unwilling to commit that strength (it would be by taking forces off the front in Donbas.
Ukraine has put Putin in a difficult choice position, but he still has a choice:
1) continue using conscripts and losing land in Kursk OR
2) abandon offensive in Donbas and bring those troops up to Kursk to stop the UAF advance....
He cannot do both, but he can easily do either. What will he do?
every day of more conscripts lost/captured and more square kilometers taken in Kursk/Belgorod is more pressure on Putin to give up in Donbas.
So far, Putin does not care at all... but mounting pressure for conscript's mothers may make him care just a little...
19:24 the more problematic it will become for russia. :P
Harvest season, how are the Russians going to get there grain to markets with failing RR system
Not to worry. All grain headed south to Ukraine instead.
"Kursk Operation"?