I have learned that US funds are being grossly miss-managed; lost. Any support, any equipment, supply and funds are being looted by corrupt officials and businesses before making it to the Military. Ukraine is money pit Russia is leveraging against the United States.
Sources? "I have learned" is as credible as RT saying that Russia shot down it's 3rd NATO General in an F-22 over Kiev. You seem to have really gone hard negative on Ukr all of a sudden and this really isn't the well spoken, well presented informational piece we come to you for. The equipment has consistently been seen on the frontlines, from the thousands of anti-tank weapons and anti-air weapons that saved the country to the armoured formations now in action. Just looking at the equipment seen in the helmet cams of the front line troops from the point of invasion to now, you can see where the equipment has gone. The russian war in Ukraine is a money-pit, but what war has ever not been one? U.S Equipment has de-mobilised more of it's strategic adverseries equipment in the last 2 years than it has done in the last 30. Why spend trillions on a peacetime force if you can't spend the money when it matters?
Still love your channel and respect your work, but I rolled my eyes pretty hard several times throughout. Strong argument to be made that Syrskyi has outperformed Zaluzhnyi.
It's called trying to give a veteran a Job. Would you prefer Rambo to recruit you? If you don't understand you can lose a limb in the Ukraine war, I don't know what you were expecting.
He did advocate for surrendering ground. That is what happens when you shift from force-on-force posture to an asymmetric warfare posture. You can't both have the cake and eat it too. He was advocating that the current posture was unsustainable and a shift to asymmetric warfare was necessary. Problem is that is not something the veteran army nor the conscripts (nice word for draftees) can handle and it would involve an apparent collapse of the battle line to make it work correctly (you can't wage guerilla war in a place you never had troops, you want them to wash over your prepared ambushes and traps)
With all respect, but Syrsky didn't singlehandedly expand all the manpower Ukrainians had. He was commanding only one of the strategic directions. Ukrainian armed forces fought for two years with basically a volunteer force without the country mobilizing. Meanwhile, the armed forces tripled in size and unit numbers. There are casualties, manning requirements for air defence and regular rest and refit requirements. That's your manpower shortage.
Aaron, General Zaluzhnyi did not advocate for ceasefire or even peace settlement, but embracing the unconventional nature of warfare which has brought Ukraine success so far: Drones, Sabotage, Insurgency, Logistics disruption, etc. Perhaps his firing was political in a way, but he never advocated for settlement. Look at his comments in context. Agreed on the Kerch Straight though... Required to break Russian supply to Crimea.
Yeah Im really confused about what the heck Subbrief is talking about. Zaluzhnyi advocated for a different handling of war, not surrendering or trying to beg an armistice from russia. Everyone with some clue knows Russia isnt happy with the bit of land they got, Putin wants more. If I didnt know better, Id assume Aaron was a russian shill. This is quite disappointing tbh.
@@termitreter6545 Zaluzhnyi was advocating for and end to force on force warfare. He was advocating for a collapse of the main battle line in favor for asymmetric warfare. The reason is Ukraine cannot win against Russia in a force of force battle of attrition and has been losing more men than it could ever replace. The current governments belief is if they run out of men and the front lines collapse NATO will intervene with boots on ground. Zaluzhnyi did not share that assessment.
*With all due respect, sir, it's imperative to clarify that in Zaluzhniy's statement, there was no mention of a ceasefire or peace agreement. When he referred to a "different solution," he intended to convey the need for employing advanced technological methods to offset the significant 8:1 manpower ratio on the battlefield, or to utilize vastly superior weaponry such as the HiMars system. As a resident of Kherson, which was liberated with substantial involvement of the HiMars system, I can attest to its effectiveness. Had we possessed such capabilities a year earlier, the outcome might have been markedly different. It's crucial to avoid misconstruing his intentions and to focus on enhancing our military capabilities for future operations.*
I think Syrski is getting a bad rap here, he had to defend against 10:1 mismatch, when Ukraine was concentrating forces in other fronts. With specific orders NOT TO GIVE UP ANY GROUND. He did about as well as could have been expected. Zaluzny got over inflated ego due to success in early war, when the Russian army was a disorganised mess, that's not the case anymore. He's been pretty terrible at adapting to the current situation, of static warfare. Always chasing some imaginary breach, even when his subordinates tell him that it's all just minefields of unprecedented saturation. So... IDK, who do you want as your commander - the social media show pony, or the guy that shuts up and gets on with the job - even if it means he's getting blamed for crap that's out of their control? Also, Syrski is the guy who actually talks to his NATO counterparts... so yup... PS. The coke plant is just a bombed out shell, but it's tactical cover as it's built like a bunker. It's been years since it was operational.
the coke plant was operational until like 2-3 months after the war started. its coke ran the furnaces at the azovstal steel plant. not relevant for the war effort, but if the azovstal plant is rebuilt it is necessary for fuel.
10-1 mismatch? Russia put about 65,000 men in to bhakmut and Ukraine about 120,000. where do you get this idea of a 10-1 ratio? Ukraine has at all times significantly outnumbered Russia until very recently and still probably has a slight manpower adavatage.
@@dbuckleton thats the dumbest thing ive ever seen written. violates every basic rule of warfare. it is significantly easier to sit in the same place and shoot back, or slowly retreat, than it is to advance, especially in urban warfare. use basic thought. easier to run into bullets or away from them? prigozhin said wagner alone had over 20,000 kia in bahkmut. 80,000 ukrainains deployed there 30,000 forward in the trenches. thats all prigozhins numbers. wagner group itself said in a telegram statement 22,000 killed 40,000 wounded at the capture of bakhmut. according to your math that leaves 23,000 who survived. thats an insane attrition rate. the math doesnt math.
I remember you said it was foolish for Russia to be rebuilding its submarine base in Crimea, as they were certainly losing the war and probably Crimea. Lots can change in a year.
The Rail lines have been hit and severed numerous times, the trouble is that rail lines are actually fairly easy to repair, usually within in a matter of days at most. you could ask Russia the same question as to why they haven't bombed the rail lines in Ukraine as well as all the bridges.. instead of sending bombs/rockets and drones into apartment complexes. The oil pipes, I've heard tell, that Ukraine still gets transit fee's from the oil passing through them so its a source of badly needed income for them, while yes Russia still gets money obviously from the sales but Ukraine needs the money more it seems. Ukraine has been hitting the Russian oil ports and refineries however in places like Saint Petersburg.
Ukrainian rail transport relies on electricity. Thats why Russia had that campaign last year where they targeted Ukraines energy grid. To cripple the rail lines.
@@andrewcharles4349 only half of ukrainian rail lines are electrified, they switched to diesel locomotives on those pretty quickly. where they couldnt switch they moved off grid to generators. russians were very clearly not targeting rail lines while they only attacked in weather that requires homes to be heated. if they did, it was a complete failure of a mission. trains still are and have been the main mode of distance transport behind lines. that hasnt stopped at any point in the war. attacking railways anything further than artillery distance is pointless in a place as railway dense as ukraine.
@@mp40submachinegun81 The attack on the energy grid had multiple objectives. Reducing rail transport by 50% would be quite significant especially since its the primary means of moving equipment and personnel in bulk across the country.
@@andrewcharles4349 they couldnt possibly reduce rail transport by 50%, id doubt 10% even. they largely were not using electric locomotives, where they were was personnel transport far in western ukraine. the USSR literally designed ukraines rail system to be incredibly redundant during war, for this exact purpose. it was supposed to be the battlefield of the cold war if it went hot, as it was the battlefield of ww2. rails have always been an incredibly inefficient target.
So, Ukraine just sank another Russian warship. This time a Ropucha class landing craft got swarmed by ship drones with some very interesting POV camera footage coming out showing the warship rolling over after taking numerous hits. Again, I have to ask if Aaron is going to contextualize his recent accusations and conclusions and interject them with the apparent non-stop losses the Black Sea Navy and the VKS are taking. In short, brother, you got some explaining to do. At this point I’m only asking questions, but I’ll say that I am also a 20 year Active Duty veteran and also just recently retired to pursue opportunities in the contracting world overseas. If anything I’m very proud I can continue to serve the interests of our nation in my own way. I also intend to continue holding to principles that have helped me and many others through their service in uniform with integrity and service before self being truly important pillars. Integrity is key. Once you give people a reason to question your integrity it takes an immense amount to regain that trust again if it can ever be truly regained. You cannot put a monetary value on it.
Ukraine had hundreds of thousands of well-trained soldiers before the conflict. According to Zelensky's recent interview with US media, Ukraine only lost thirty thousand soldiers since the war in Feb 2022. If it is true, Ukraine is not short of men, Ukraine doesn't need new recruits. What had happened to the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers? Somebody is lying.
It’s not lack of men, it’s lack shells. Attrition warfare is trading men’s lives for shells. When one side runs low of shells, then the other side sits back shells the other to death because they’re no longer taking a lot of attrition damage. This is what happened in WW1 and it’s what happening in this war.
Nuts isn't it...but Americans now say they "could" care less when they literally mean "couldn't" : we're at point where they have totally dissociated from what words mean - I don't mean slang, I mean fundamental vocabulary so who knows what the dude actually means in his head 🤷♂️🤦♂️
I used to trust what you had to say. I'm really sad, and blown away at how uninformed this is. God how can you say with a straight face that ukraine is allowing oil and gas to be delivered through the country. I could go on, but it's pointless. It was just the easiest to point at.. Other people have written much more eliqant and detailed rebuttles. I'm sad to be walking away from this channel I've not missed a video in 4 years. Good luck.
this video seems like an anomaly for this channel, im completely suprised by the complete lack of research for this video. my biggest problems with it are, acting like zaluzhny was fired for being too popular is just nonsensical to say. he just conducted a full campaign season of a failed counter offensive with seemingly little modification in strategy to adapt to the defenses and continuing to attack the same area of the line regardless of outcome. why in the world would he keep his job after failing, so he can expend what resources they have left. this seems like a complete oversight in the research of the video. and from a naval guy the bigger omission, kerch bridge capacity has been severely limited. satelites prove much lower frequency of trains, much shorter trains, reduced road capacity, and large amounts of equipment being transported by ferries. we have clear empirical evidence of this also which a naval guy leaving out raises some credibility concerns. strikes on rapucha class ships Olenegorsky Gornyak in august 2023 and Novocherkassk in dec 2023. both believed to be transporting supplies to crimea.
When I worked with Air Force personnel, they called it the "Peter Principle": soldiers are promoted to just past the limits of their capability, leading to poor resilts for their underlings.
Ukraine is geographically rather arbitrary and both politically and culturally divided. A fair percentage of Eastern Ukraine is culturally, linguistically and frankly politically aligned with Moscow. But I guess those people don't get self-determination.
@@M167A1 That's never been the case, my parents speak Russian, does not mean they want to live there. The only "cultural" difference between Ukraine and Russia is that one is a dictatorship and the other one is not,
I think the Kirch Bridge has to be hit in a specific window. If they attack too early then the russians can get the ferries running again like before the bridge. I think the timing for that is critical. I think think it has to be just enough before a major offensive so supplied become strained but not so early that they can restore it before Ukraine can take advantage. Furthermore they have to take out two bridges and the rail in a meaningful way.
I am from Louisiana. We have a long shallow water bridge very similar the Kerch Bridge. The pilings between the spans are the hard part of the bridge. So you have 300 odd hard points that cannot really be bombed to destruction. The spans? Sure you can knock a hole in them, maybe even drop a few in the water but patchwork functioning repairs take days or weeks at most. The pilings remain. Take a look at the Ponchartrain Bridge an youll see what I mean. They know this which is why their obsession with this bridge boggles my mind.
@@fresatxit's a symbol. Ukraine was sure that there's no way Russia could build that bridge, after war started they pledged to destroy it. Ofc rail along coast that Russia is building (allegedly) is a lot more important, since there are ferries and military transports ready in case something happens to the bridge.
I personally wouldn’t bail on our country but I absolutely don’t fault any of those Ukrainians who left. I wouldn’t hold a thing against them, like it’s not a bad idea to avoid getting sent to die or get permanently disfigured. I bet these units have like 240% casualty rates. Now they’re prob rebuilding some of these units for the third or fourth time and there’s no reserves or anyone else left to fill them with.
Avoiding being sent to war is a normal human reaction. You see it in Russia men leaving the country, only the ideologically motivated don’t need convincing or coercion to go fight
Also, the Ukraine (and Russian?) army is set up so that the only way out of the army is in a body bag, or to be so disabled that you can't fight anymore. They don't have what the US had in the Vietnam war where you serve for 12-16 months and then you get to go back to your life. It's absolutely unsustainable, and I do not at all fault the men who fled. I suspect that they would have a lot more men available if all they did was implement a 1-2 year conscription limit
@@Legitpenguins99 I think Vietnam is the wrong war to draw a point from. There was nothing about that war that was necessary or existential, hence we could leave and literally nothing happened to the US. Ukraine, on the other hand, is literally fighting for their continued existence as an independent nation. Maybe the US Civil War with their later 3 year enlistments or WWII for the duration is more appropriate. I don't think you would find any nation that willingly dismissed recruits after a one year hitch during war time. You do that during peacetime to build up a large reserve pool so that when war comes, you have hundreds of thousands or millions who have worn the uniform at some point and have had army training. Send them into refresher training, then to the front. That's how Germany and France fought WWI with millions of soldiers.
@@panachevitz They were at first, now they are just fighting for the two provinces they have been fighting over since 2014 in the far east. You know, the two with majority Russian speakers and who field at least two full 'volunteer' divisions who fight for the Russians?
I like your naval stuff but i feel like there were a lot if inaccuracies here. What exactly are your sources on this? There were a lot of matter of fact statements from a self proclaimed non land experts.
Aaron, there are some aspects of this video which are not great: 1. The title seems to imply that you are rooting for Ukraine to lose, which I know you aren't based on other videos. Or your opinion has changed. 2. The Ukrainians are not exhausted physically but politically. Zelenskyy and his party, Servant of the People, have been unwilling to lower the age of conscription below 27 because it's unpopular and hard to stomach. This was apparently one of the main boiling points between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, as Zaluzhny wanted to mobilize 500k people. Zelenskyy was apparently also very upset when Zaluzhny published his very poignant "Stalemate" article in The Economist and when it all combines with the popularity issue you mentioned, you can understand why Zaluzhny was dismissed (though I disagree with it) 3. Avdiivka Coke is not under Ukrainian "Occupation" - poor choice of words. I also don't think the Coke plant has operated for some time, so its economic value is moot. Its real value lies in its hardened structures which turn it into a fortress (like Azovstal was) 4. The Syrski section is pretty good. I don't know his exact background and the whole "he never learned beyond a low level" thing but everything I have heard is that he is an obsessive micromanager with a complete disregard for casualties, which is very unfortunate. His appointment has certainly been bad for morale. I agree that Syrski will lead Ukraine to bloody failures, unfortunately. Overall, Ukraine has a bad hand and they're playing it poorly right now. Europe has guaranteed something of a minimum of ammunition, but the next 3-4 months will be very difficult as Europe scales to meet more of Ukraine's needs. If the US could finally overcome the pro-Putin wing of the GOP which is denying aid to Ukraine, we could send them enough ammunition to cover the intervening time period and give Ukraine some breathing room. For their part, the Ukrainians can't engage in bloody urban combat in Avdiivka like they did in Bakhmut. They need to get back out into the fields where the Russians have to use their mechanized forces which have historically been much easier for Ukraine to destroy than their waves of infantry (see Vuhledar, Novomykhailivka, and Avdiivka itself going back to October)
We can give them a trillion dollars and free reign on our weapons stockpiles. Without bodies they mathematically cannot win. This 500k number is absurd and only makes sense if over half of that figure is women and children and even then none of them will be trained to even 3rd world standards. There is no way that Ukraine wins this by themselves. They will either concede and lose territory or keep fighting and lose it all. Also calling anyone that doesn't support a proxy war on the other side of the world "pro Russian" is blatant straw manning.
What data is driving you to believe that Ukraine can win this? Do you understand logistics and how these shape wars? Do you understand that Russia will not run out of logistics (to include personnel) before Ukraine does? I know it is not what you want to hear (and it sounds like rooting for the other side), but you are not in Ukraine losing loved ones, or losing limbs, nor being psychologically damaged for life. The unfortunate thing here is that - unless NATO countries actually go into this war and fight alongside Ukraine - Russia will win. That's the realistic truth.
im not being critical but its not GOP this is a planed stoppage cspan 1990 intell committy joe blow said he knew there is going to be a stoppage by political party's ie its his own fault for the deaths that he causes its called politics for a reason i personally believe their giving Russia time to hang itself and also by urkaines own first founding president knew of this stoppage gave speech in poland and in urkraine duma 1990 knew that the west might not help he was looking for guarantees which we gave also also why were helping BUT YOU ACT LIKE EUROPE DONT NEED TO SLAP ITS SELF IN THE FACE WITH DIRTY TAMPOON AND DO IT OWN WORK AND NOT RELY ON USA there problem not ours
1: agreed, Aaron sort it out. 2: Agreed, although at some point someone is going to have to rectify the issue between opinion polling which suggests most ukrainians want the war to continue and the amount of men under the conscription age (27) who seem to not want to actually fight that war. 3. no idea, but the notion that anyone is making coca cola in Ukraine at this time is a little misleading to say the least. 4. Syrski went to Frunze during the Soviet days. According to RUSI he was also one of the leaders of the Karkhiv offensive which was so successful in 2022. He has a good reputation, and he has a better relationship with his NATO colleagues than Zaluzhny does. He is considered to be a forward thinker, but also someone who does not accept "I cannot" as an answer. Mostly agree with your last point.
Hey man, Syrski reconquered from Charkow to Kopani more land then Kherson with fewer troops than the russians. Holding Bakhmut was by order of Zelenskyy.
In Kharkov Ukraine had 20k and Russia had close to 0. In Kherson Russia didnt loss on the field and was also outnumbered. How can you think Russia had more men, Russia went in with a small force of 160,000 which it managed to eventually top up to about 200k and Ukraine started with much more and mobalised many times. What maths are working with to say Ukraine had less men?
@@balaclavabob001 im not following my friend, i think you have responded to the wrong person. Im the guy responding to the claim Ukraine had less soldiers than Russia.
@@balaclavabob001 And Ukraine has left its entire volunteer force dead or with permanent disability. Ukraine has about 36 million people, about 20% (being kind, that is the lowest number) are sympathetic to the Russians and have left or are fighting with the forces in the east. They have lost (again being kind, low numbers) 130k military casualties (25k dead) and 25k civilian casualties. For context, the ENTIRE casualty count from the Blitz in WW2 was around 55k civilian casualties. Ukraine does not has a volunteer problem, it has a conscription problem. They can't even force enough new fighters to keep up with attrition.
it's difficult to know whats actually going on. Some channels say there is a stalement, some same ukraine are doing well, some say russia is winning. Who knows.
@@EvoraGT430So you're trashing a BBC correspondent that was expelled from Russia in 2021? Ok... I guess anything that goes against your thought doesn't know.
Aaron, I really don't think your sources and research on this are all that great. You do cut a lot of falsehoods, but you're still misrepresenting the situation in my opinion and introducing new ones. The way your talking makes it sound like you're not following everything in Ukraine often enough for your BS filter to be fully calibrated on this one.
Doesn't it strike you as odd that anyone who can do math and has some history in military science or geopolitics is saying Ukraine cannot win this war of attrition against Russia, and ALSO their comment section is flooded by 'Russian Shill' comments? Maybe its your BS filter that needs some calibration. Ukraine is not the USA. Ukraine is not some 'bastion of democracy. Ukraine is not a country populated by people who are willing to fight to the death. Ukraine is not able to win a war of attrition, its basic math. Ukraine has already exhausted its volunteer force and its conscription pool is at the bottom of the barrel. Ukraine is becoming more and more desperate to find a solution because only NATO intelligence and high tech weapons (at great expense to the USA) are even holding back the tide.
There's no way in hell Ukraine is short on men, they haven't been fighting large enough battles and apparently they are only conscripting 27 year olds and older? So far it seems neither side has committed to a large scale offensive and instead choose to fight small skirmishes for the rest of time. For Ukraine initially that's fine, it gives them time to amass a real army then mount a large scale offensive to push the Russians back, but they aren't doing that. And if they thought Russia would give up, they were wrong. So what's the plan for either side here?
To see who taps out first essentially. If Russia taps, Ukraine gains their territory back. If Ukraine taps, they have to give territory to Russia. Keep in mind that there is always going to be a bit of disinformation. Is Ukraine short on men? Maybe. Are they facing a recruitment issue? Sure, and so is Russia. Like much of the world right now, the majority of nations are facing recruitment issues, especially the US. Look how close the US got to winning in Vietnam, but pulled out from public pressure and couldn't conscript the men needed. Look at the amount of ordinance the US used in that conflict. While numbers are necessary, wars are won with a lot more than just numbers.
>There's no way in hell Ukraine is short on men Then why on earth would they put a mentally handicapped on the front? Why the recent 500k bill (only turned down due to lack of funds)? Pure bollocks, that's what you're saying.
@@orzorzelski1142 How many mentally handicapped people has the US put on the front?? TONS. How many people did the US prosecute for draft dodging in Vietnam? Tons! You Russian bots act like these problems are unique to Ukraine, when the US has done and delt with the exact same thing. This happens in EVERY war. Next tell me Zelensky is just an actor, while conveniently ignoring Reagan and Trump were actors lmfao.
When it comes to *Zaluzhniy* , the situation is indeed more complex than it seems initially. Internal factions have their own agendas, seeking to exploit our casualties, especially given the upcoming absence of presidential elections. These factions are visibly discontented. Essentially, there are both internal and external parties actively working to destabilize the partnership between Zelensky and Zaluzhniy, which complicates our strategic planning. In my opinion, replacing Zaluzhniy was a misstep.
I feel that it was a misstep, while I understand what was being said about new phase, new general. It is usually how war is played out. But Zaluzhny had an effective plan and the West deemed that plan financially impossible.
The Ukrainian sacrifice has been huge, but it cannot be sustained. It's very simple, without air-superiority of some kind (beyond drones), you can't win. With all the MANPADs etc. no side has been able to wield air power effectively.
While appreciate this channel, may want to stick to naval briefs- Bakhmut created a dramatically favorable loss ratio for Ukraine and single-handedly broke the back of Wagner leading to the brief insurrection and chaos that ensued. Bakhmut consumed significant amounts of Russian resources, and handily pinned them in one area disallowing them the freedom to conduct larger maneuvers elsewhere. With no significant defensive fortifications along the front, Ukraine utilized the urban terrain of Bakhmut expertly to bleed the Russians. Far as why there's still a Kerch bridge and railways, that's thanks to NATO self-deterrence and now conservatives playing political football with Ukraine aid to give Trump something to campaign on. If Ukraine loses this war it will be because America allowed Russia to win.
Bakhmut was a loss for ukraine. Ukraine has no manpower to play atrition war with Russia. This new/old guy is just there to loose more ukrainians in the grinder before this whole thing ends badly for ukraine as was obvious from the begining.
@@MatJan86 nato assessed 5:1 loss ratio- with no defensive fortifications the Battle of Bakhmut was a net win for Ukraine. A war of attrition was and is inevitable, and the battle afforded Ukraine the time to mass the tools needed to stop Russian major offensives along the front. While the battle was always going to be a loss for Ukraine- period- it was a pyrrhic victory for Russia and DIRECTLY responsible for the Wagner coup and resulting fallout, all of which were net wins for Ukraine.
Not just that: Bachmut ensured Russia spent all winter attacking instead of recovering and training. If Ukraine gave it up, Putin would've still had a name on the map as propaganda, but Ukraine would've been forced into costly attacks to prevent a Russian buildup. Loss ratios were at times above 20:1 to Russia's detriment. That sort of fighting, even though it was hellish, meant Russia would need to lose a million men to defeat 50000 Ukrainians.
We've NEVER given Ukraine enough to win. Just enough to drag it out and make it cost Russia more than they planned but it goes both ways. Ukraine is being bled white. Not saying Russia will win based solely on tactics and quality of equipment but they will most certainly win through sheer attrition.
@@reubensandwich9249he's got a point. We have a habit of just keeping allies going until we lose interest. Ask South Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan how well that aid worked out for them.
We've given Ukraine more in one year than we gave the whole of the Soviet Union through all of WWII, and that's adjusted for inflation. I don't think giving them our entire arsenal would win the day. I think there are several layers of failures as to why Ukraine is not currently winning, and several key aspects as to why they're still holding on so well.
@@reubensandwich9249You really don't have any idea how the fudnign operates, do you? Around 90% of it goes direclty to US companies. Ukraine gets old stuff at the end the shelf life (which otehrwise costs the US money to decommission), the US military gets new, more capable stuff to replace it.
Aaron, regarding the bridges; i think! there is nice unspoken rule between the sides that they d not attack critical bridges en mass, cause it d cut everythin east of Dnipro river => d cause also civilian crisis
I have identified several factual inaccuracies in your narrative, leading me to question the reliability of your data sources. Let's delve into your arguments and examine them closely: You assert that Ukraine is facing a manpower shortage, which is indeed accurate. However, your subsequent claim that all eligible men are either on the front lines, injured, or have fled is entirely false. Ukraine has relied solely on a voluntary basis for army recruitment, resulting in challenges due to losses sustained over the two years of conflict. Opting for a voluntary recruitment system during an existential war raises significant concerns. From a manpower perspective, Ukraine could easily field a much larger army given its population of 44 million. While this requires financial, resource, and arms support, numerically it is not an insurmountable challenge. Your assertion that Ukraine has mismanaged US support funds is grounded in some truth, acknowledging the corruption challenges prevalent in Eastern European countries. However, significant efforts have been made to address and improve this situation. Claims of poor management are often echoed in social media without concrete evidence. It's essential to recognize that the majority of US support funds are directed towards American arm manufacturers and subcontractors providing supplies to Ukraine, along with a substantial inventory of stored arms. The claim of Russia possessing an 8:1 advantage in terms of men requires context. While Russia does have a numerical advantage in manpower, the frontline situation and the overall force disparity are not as significant. Estimates suggest that Russia has utilized around 1.5 million men, compared to Ukraine's 1 million. In terms of active frontline troops, Russia has roughly 400,000, slightly more than Ukraine. The key difference lies in Russia's ability to replenish its forces from reserves, estimated at 30,000 per month. Your analysis of General Syrskyi's appointment to a leadership position is intriguing. However, it lacks essential background information on his performance and accomplishments. The evaluation appears somewhat arrogant, particularly when comparing it to the current army situation and available skills. Admittedly, I lack the knowledge to assess his competence. Regarding the decision to hold Bakhmut, drawing parallels to historical events like the Battle of Bulge may not be entirely applicable. It is essential not to judge decisions prematurely without a comprehensive understanding of all aspects of the case and awaiting the final outcome. Your assertion that Ukraine could hit and destroy the Kerch bridge appears improbable. Despite attempts, the bridge is distant and well-defended. The lack of long-range hitting capability from the US complicates the matter. Ukraine does not possess drones or artillery with the required range. Limited cruise missiles from France and the UK pose significant risks attempting such an operation. It is crucial to consider weapon range, geography, and the necessary firepower to destroy the bridge. Finally, I question the rationale behind the US's reluctance to provide weapons to Ukraine, especially when your argument suggests their potential impact on the conflict outcome. The availability of weapons from US warehouses, possibly avoiding destruction, raises valid considerations. Additionally, considering the US's historical stance in favor of democracy and against totalitarianism, it raises questions about the current position.
You are missing a few important aspects: 1. The failed offensive that the previous general lead in a disastrous way by being too cautious and not concentrating on one area of the frontline like the US generals recommended 2. The russian loses in Bahmut were so outrageous that even a psycho like Prigojin cracked to the extent that he and his group were no longer a threat for Ukraine 3. This is war, not a popularity contest. We are very likely not aware of all the reasons that he got pushed aside
Erm. Number 2? You make it sound like a Russian loss but I ‘member Bakhmut being a meat grinder for both sides but Russia won out in the end. So guess who won. Also it’s noteworthy that what amounts to a penal battalion, according to some sources, caused Ukraine to bleed some of it’s better. Yeah that’s not an AFU win right there. Number 1. You think support is given without condition? The previous general was forced to abide by NATO doctrine albeit some flexibility. He has now either being scapegoated or became too difficult for proxy handlers to condone of. Number 3. Oh you sweet summer child, what is war other than a popularity contest with muscle, industrial output, outcomes of engagement and increasingly popular opinion in an age of instant communication as its weights of balance? Populairty matters more during informational warfare. IMO Ukraine is losing hard on that front even if they have done better on more historied examples of propaganda as taught to them by western spinsors hitherto.
Russia has several times the population to support this. Ukraine was never going to win, Russia will stay in Ukraine as long as it takes, a decade if necessary. Remember Afghanistan?
@@DoctorMangler Russia's population doesn't equal willing soldiers. The US population was many times that of Vietnam's or Afghanistan's. Population does not equal soldiers equipped to fight and deployable.
You ask why there are railways, pipelines and bridges still intact. - The answer concerns an aspect of this war few people are permitted to openly talk about. Both Russia and Ukraine are still run by oligarchs who control those assets. In Ukraine many of the private militias (most of their remaining manpower and embezzled weapons) answer to those oligarchs before the Kiev military chain of command. Do not forget that both Russian and Ukrainian ex-KGB work with and in many cases actually are the oligarchs. Corruption is now far worse than before the war. Ignore the reports that Zelensky is fighting corruption, it's simply not true. He has luxury property all over the world.
@bobbygetsbanned6049 A loss of manpower has lost many wars. If you can't field enough trained men to fight, you loose. Manpower ≠ sheer numbers on paper, not everyone can fight
@@sebastiannelson6355 Ok which wars then? Damn near every war lost is lost due to strategy, logistics, and now inability to out produce the enemy. Specifically what wars were lost based on lack of men??
For what it is worth, the bridge IS within HIMARs range, but only just and they would have to risk the launchers very close to the front. It is also within range of drones, of which many have been shot down for only a couple of successful attacks.
@@fortusvictus8297 even ATACMS they got has range of onl 165km and the Kerch bridge is beyond that... only way to hit it is if Su24 on a suicide mission fly into the enemy held territory in Zaporozhye and even then it is not guaranteed hit.
It would be an awful position to find yourself. One guy wins, you'll probably get the military aid you need. Another guy wins and, at best, you lose a good chunk of your country. After enormous losses in blood and equipment. It's very sad.
@@M167A1 make europe pay us back for the biggest US geopolitical W since ww2? 2nd biggest threat's army massively depleted for less than 10% of the defense budget, money that is getting spent anyways. you have to be incompetent with numbers to not see the win.
the US knew that, they thought sanctions would have won before Russia's guns could I wish the US and US media didn't lie about this war and especial Israel gaza war. They act like both events happened for no rational reason whatsoever. SAME THING HAPPENED IN BOTH. The US backed forces were killing civilians, Ukraine killed ethnic Russian civilians and Israel was sniping Palestinian kids for throwing rocks. (They justify this by saying 'Rocks can kill') Yea well, Israel is maintaining apartheid state, they really cant complain about any retalliation.
As for the railroads and roads between Ukraine and Russia, having them drawn on a map doesn't mean they are materially present and/or functional on the ground. As for the gas pipes, EU really asked Ukrainians to not destroy that infrastructure for Hungary, Austria and Slovakia.
Plus of course Ukraine is still paid transport fees for that Russian gas, and retains leverage over the dictator Orban in case they really need him to budge: Otherwise Ukraine just cuts off the gas from Orban's master in the Kremlin.
Excellent video! As for the increasing possibility of Russia winning the war, there is a video from Ward Carroll's channel, in which the video with Justin Bronk, talk about that prospect of Ukraine losing. Interesting video and topic imho
This is not your best video Aaron. Many of the bits of information that you share here aren't accurate. Syrskyi organized the defense of Kyiv in the early weeks of the war in near perfect chaos. He's a very capable general and certainly far beyond the skill level of a platoon leader. Did you fall victim to Ru propaganda perhaps? I'm used to better quality from your channel.
@@glhmedic I'm genuinely shocked.. I like to think I have a fairly neutral take on the situation, and this was the most hamfisted uneducated, and bizarre read on the situation I've seen outside of RU propaganda. Where the hell did that come from.. I mean, how the hell, or where the hell does he get the idea from that Ukrain is still shipping RU oil across the country? Bonkers!!!
Its poorly researched. Railways and piplines are easy to check up on. Zelensky is doing his best to save the young generation. Sends the dad so the son wil live. Aaron needs to stop and think befoee he posts
It's not RU propaganda, he is highly unpopular in the Ukrainian army, he has a reputation as careless with his men. This maybe true, or just bad mouthing him, I have no idea.
Well your last question is easy to answer. They expect to be able to use those resources after the war is over. Which may be soon. Russia is also having recruitment problems. They're throwing convicts into battle, sacrificing dozens of lives for each foot of ground. This isn't over yet. And weirdly enough, Ukraine and Russia may be waiting to see who wins the next presidential election before they begin to negotiate.
Been doing that since last year and yet the Russian army keeps growing and rearming itself, it was always a simple calculous, one country has a larger manpower reserve and local production, the other has less manpower and is 100% reliant on external help.
@@joaomiguelmoreira6363 Wouldn't say the Russians are growing. There are countless intercepted telephone clals and veven video pleas for help, from Russian personnel who are very open about how they had one or two days of 'training', at best, where they weren't even given guns for shooting practice with.
Except they aren't building new stuff. They are throwing T55's in to battle because they have runout of t72's, t80's and T90's. There are no T14's to put in to battle and most of Russias equipment and supplies comes from Iran. Most of Russia's industry was coming from Ukraine.
Russias had pretty solid recruitment numbers actually. They only recruited from prisons once and got about 10’000 volunteers who fought with Wagner and their contracts have long since been fulfilled.
@@andrewcharles4349 Many of those contracts have been artifically extended without permission. They've also been 'recruiting' from prisons on an on-going basis. They were even deliebrately turning heating down in prisons to levels which are life-threatening, to force convicts to sign up.
That would make sense, but, the guy that got fired was the commander of the guy that got promoted. He got handled by the president because he was not a good commander. That is evident by his subordinates performance.
UK/France isn't allowing the Stormshadows to be used against the bridge. The US has refused to supply ATACMs with unitary warheads too. So if you want to know why the Kerch Strait Bridge is still up I suggest you ask Jake Sullivan.
Didn't realize you are a Russian apologist, Ukraine has to make some hard decisions they are at war so conscription and lowering the age should be on the agenda 😮
I think what has surprised me about this video is how much it is full of opinion and anecdotes when I am used to hearing facts and research. This is uncharacteristic of this channel. Nevertheless, there's nothing wrong with taking a break from the usual and airing opinions. Thanks, Aaron.
Spot on. If Arron wants to talk about why Ukraine is where it is he should ask his government why they forced Ukraine to fight the war USA style whilst the USA denied them the weapons to fight the war USA style, ie combined arms. Oh it's suddenly gone quiet. Wow what a shrill.
I have seen that picture of Avdivka (4:50) before and it just make me think of all the folks/families from those abandoned apartments who may have lost a loved one and possibly everything they own. One women (50's) and her mother (80's) were still living in the city and only evacuated last week. The women cried at all of the destruction she was finally seeing as she was driven out of city. She then said to her mother "you are lucky you are blind, so you can't see what happened to our city". - The Russians need to be kick out period with the support of the entire west.
We are failing to aid these people, its not only their loss if they lose any more land. We as American citizens elect people that restrict and or delay aid to these people, huge shame to anyone who is against support for UA.
we give more more to Ukraine then American poor, people fight wars not money. This was bound to happen from day one. back in 2014 when US started giving arms aid.
Imagine the civilians hiding from your duty while also wanting russia to lose and begging America to help without helping yourselves. wow.... Sad modern generation. But we all know russia wins war..
Shhhhh! Do not mention the "C" word or a certain subset of persons will label you a "putin shill" and worse. Reality is an ugly thing that ***some*** folks would prefer to pretend did not matter.
fuel for the furnaces at the azovstal steel plant in mariupol. doesnt matter for the war effort, hasnt been producing anything since the start, but important if russia wants to rebuild that steel plant the ukrainians held out in for months in mariupol. 157 km (98mi) striaght down a major highway from the steel plant.
Basically we need to tell Ukraine that she needs to produce her own wepons and do so en mass. Not totall self sufficiency (midget subs and aircraft should come from the west), but for the most part, yes. Tanks, missile boats and so forth.
So, tl;didn't watch: some people are finally catching up with what some people said from the very beginning, that ukraine can't win a prolonged conventional war of attrition? Whew, that only took 2 years!
With all due respect, sir, as per military regulations implemented since the onset of the conflict, men between the ages of 18 and 60 are restricted from exiting the country.
dont shy away from voicing your opinion due to dislikes or hate comments its good for people to hear all sides and have rational debates if any of what your saying isnt true let them cite sources to prove you are wrong.
Ukraine joined EU economic group for finance , there was no WAR everyone was in peace . Even Russia was exporting gas and oil to EU . There was peace everywhere. However we find that Ukraine (part of USSR) wanting to join NATO which has led to this unwanted WAR in the first place. We ended the cold war of 80s and 90s jointly by US and USSR on 2 agreements 1)USSR will be split into different countries but none of them will ever join NATO or cause any threat to Russia. 2) Both US and USSR agreed on this in principle. So Ukraine needs to apologize, stay away from NATO and be part of EU Economic Zone and live in Peace. There is no need to have this unnecessary WAR in first place.
Ukraine is f'n done. That's it. Your Eastern provinces have been appropriated, all the way to the black sea. You'll be lucky to get Odessa when this is done. You shouldn't have let Obama and Victoria Nuland talk you into a coup.
they're so short on men they've started sending me youtube adverts for volunteer brigades again. No thanks. This infanteer isn't into adventurism anymore. Especially when the company I work for has a labourer who is a able-bodied 20 year old Ukrainian man. If their own people won't die for Ukraine, why should I?
Units sailing and getting ready for Steadfast Defender, Italy and France are also preparing to deploy Carrier groups to the Indo-Pacific for the first time in who knows. Clock is ticking on how long the Ike CSG can stay on station in the Red Sea and if there will be a NATO carrier available to relieve her in Prosperity Gaurdian...lots of interesting Naval points happening dude, be great to hear your views on some of them.
Not sure why you're taking this perspective and arguing for it so vigorously. As you said, you're not an expert in land warfare. Sometimes I wonder about your credibility. Who's giving you your information? This video reads like propaganda.
It's called math and being a free enough thinker that you don't conflate being a good citizen and patriotism with nationalism or blind adherence to the party line. Anyone who has ever read a single book on military history knows how this must end. Ukraine does not have a volunteer army remaining, they have a conscription problem even forcing enough bodies into service to keep up with attrition. After the initial pushback of the invasion (which was honorable and good), everything else has been a bloodletting with a pre-determiend outcome. Much like the European war after the summer of '44, sure they will win some battles but the outcome is unavoidable.
@@fortusvictus8297 They do all the fighting, NATO does all the arming. That's a winning formula. Russia has a much bigger recruitment problem and much less money than the western coalition.
Ukraine had a huge surge of volunteers after Russian invasion in 2022. There actually wasn't a mobilization since the war started. Zaluzhny called the manpower problem openly and got fired for it. But the problem does exist. Ukrainian parliament has still not approved the mobilization bill, for it is too politically toxic.
Suggestion is to read what institusions like Rusi are analyzing with some academical rigor. Not opinions that are easiy tainted by smooth political directions. This opinion video is based on a note circulating around that says troops are demoralized, wich is a very very broad and questionable piece of propaganda statement, unless there is proof that all 100% of Ukr soliders say the same. Very unbecoming of this channel to do this.
I have learned that US funds are being grossly miss-managed; lost. Any support, any equipment, supply and funds are being looted by corrupt officials and businesses before making it to the Military. Ukraine is money pit Russia is leveraging against the United States.
there is 0 data to support this claim.
Sources? "I have learned" is as credible as RT saying that Russia shot down it's 3rd NATO General in an F-22 over Kiev.
You seem to have really gone hard negative on Ukr all of a sudden and this really isn't the well spoken, well presented informational piece we come to you for.
The equipment has consistently been seen on the frontlines, from the thousands of anti-tank weapons and anti-air weapons that saved the country to the armoured formations now in action. Just looking at the equipment seen in the helmet cams of the front line troops from the point of invasion to now, you can see where the equipment has gone. The russian war in Ukraine is a money-pit, but what war has ever not been one? U.S Equipment has de-mobilised more of it's strategic adverseries equipment in the last 2 years than it has done in the last 30. Why spend trillions on a peacetime force if you can't spend the money when it matters?
Reliable sources, anecdotal evidence or propaganda? I'm pretty sure it's not reliable sources
Seriously Aaron? Et Tu ?
Nice to see you’ve gone down the Putin disinformation rabbit hole.
Still love your channel and respect your work, but I rolled my eyes pretty hard several times throughout. Strong argument to be made that Syrskyi has outperformed Zaluzhnyi.
Still think that after the recent fiasco with the "orderly retreats"??
Is a soldier missing a limb the best choice for a recruiting representative !?
It worked in Starship Troopers?
Watch the Monty Python sketch called The Black Knight, and fast forward to the bit where King Arthur fights him.
It's called trying to give a veteran a Job. Would you prefer Rambo to recruit you? If you don't understand you can lose a limb in the Ukraine war, I don't know what you were expecting.
Worked in starship troopers.
This was pretty standard in WW2
Aaron watched the Tucker interview, didn’t he?
Zaluzhny didn't advocate for surrendering ground or negotiating with Russia.
He did advocate for surrendering ground. That is what happens when you shift from force-on-force posture to an asymmetric warfare posture.
You can't both have the cake and eat it too. He was advocating that the current posture was unsustainable and a shift to asymmetric warfare was necessary. Problem is that is not something the veteran army nor the conscripts (nice word for draftees) can handle and it would involve an apparent collapse of the battle line to make it work correctly (you can't wage guerilla war in a place you never had troops, you want them to wash over your prepared ambushes and traps)
@@fortusvictus8297 It's a huge gamble to let the enemy wash over you.
With all respect, but Syrsky didn't singlehandedly expand all the manpower Ukrainians had. He was commanding only one of the strategic directions. Ukrainian armed forces fought for two years with basically a volunteer force without the country mobilizing. Meanwhile, the armed forces tripled in size and unit numbers. There are casualties, manning requirements for air defence and regular rest and refit requirements. That's your manpower shortage.
Aaron, General Zaluzhnyi did not advocate for ceasefire or even peace settlement, but embracing the unconventional nature of warfare which has brought Ukraine success so far: Drones, Sabotage, Insurgency, Logistics disruption, etc. Perhaps his firing was political in a way, but he never advocated for settlement. Look at his comments in context. Agreed on the Kerch Straight though... Required to break Russian supply to Crimea.
100%
Yeah Im really confused about what the heck Subbrief is talking about. Zaluzhnyi advocated for a different handling of war, not surrendering or trying to beg an armistice from russia. Everyone with some clue knows Russia isnt happy with the bit of land they got, Putin wants more.
If I didnt know better, Id assume Aaron was a russian shill. This is quite disappointing tbh.
@@termitreter6545 Zaluzhnyi was advocating for and end to force on force warfare. He was advocating for a collapse of the main battle line in favor for asymmetric warfare. The reason is Ukraine cannot win against Russia in a force of force battle of attrition and has been losing more men than it could ever replace. The current governments belief is if they run out of men and the front lines collapse NATO will intervene with boots on ground. Zaluzhnyi did not share that assessment.
Name me the weapon system we gave them that was able to take down that bridge? as all fall far short even storm shadow!
@@LeonAust You’re asking the right question, Sir.
Conscription teams have been around since the beginning of the war.
*With all due respect, sir, it's imperative to clarify that in Zaluzhniy's statement, there was no mention of a ceasefire or peace agreement. When he referred to a "different solution," he intended to convey the need for employing advanced technological methods to offset the significant 8:1 manpower ratio on the battlefield, or to utilize vastly superior weaponry such as the HiMars system. As a resident of Kherson, which was liberated with substantial involvement of the HiMars system, I can attest to its effectiveness. Had we possessed such capabilities a year earlier, the outcome might have been markedly different. It's crucial to avoid misconstruing his intentions and to focus on enhancing our military capabilities for future operations.*
hi mars is as much superior as s300 missles of russians , they even worse missles i would say
this is some suckdick propaganda right here
“The Mobile Infantry made me the man I am today.”
I think Syrski is getting a bad rap here, he had to defend against 10:1 mismatch, when Ukraine was concentrating forces in other fronts. With specific orders NOT TO GIVE UP ANY GROUND. He did about as well as could have been expected. Zaluzny got over inflated ego due to success in early war, when the Russian army was a disorganised mess, that's not the case anymore. He's been pretty terrible at adapting to the current situation, of static warfare. Always chasing some imaginary breach, even when his subordinates tell him that it's all just minefields of unprecedented saturation. So... IDK, who do you want as your commander - the social media show pony, or the guy that shuts up and gets on with the job - even if it means he's getting blamed for crap that's out of their control? Also, Syrski is the guy who actually talks to his NATO counterparts... so yup...
PS. The coke plant is just a bombed out shell, but it's tactical cover as it's built like a bunker. It's been years since it was operational.
the coke plant was operational until like 2-3 months after the war started. its coke ran the furnaces at the azovstal steel plant. not relevant for the war effort, but if the azovstal plant is rebuilt it is necessary for fuel.
10-1 mismatch? Russia put about 65,000 men in to bhakmut and Ukraine about 120,000. where do you get this idea of a 10-1 ratio? Ukraine has at all times significantly outnumbered Russia until very recently and still probably has a slight manpower adavatage.
@@dbuckleton thats the dumbest thing ive ever seen written. violates every basic rule of warfare. it is significantly easier to sit in the same place and shoot back, or slowly retreat, than it is to advance, especially in urban warfare. use basic thought. easier to run into bullets or away from them?
prigozhin said wagner alone had over 20,000 kia in bahkmut. 80,000 ukrainains deployed there 30,000 forward in the trenches. thats all prigozhins numbers.
wagner group itself said in a telegram statement 22,000 killed 40,000 wounded at the capture of bakhmut. according to your math that leaves 23,000 who survived. thats an insane attrition rate. the math doesnt math.
I remember you said it was foolish for Russia to be rebuilding its submarine base in Crimea, as they were certainly losing the war and probably Crimea. Lots can change in a year.
The Rail lines have been hit and severed numerous times, the trouble is that rail lines are actually fairly easy to repair, usually within in a matter of days at most. you could ask Russia the same question as to why they haven't bombed the rail lines in Ukraine as well as all the bridges.. instead of sending bombs/rockets and drones into apartment complexes. The oil pipes, I've heard tell, that Ukraine still gets transit fee's from the oil passing through them so its a source of badly needed income for them, while yes Russia still gets money obviously from the sales but Ukraine needs the money more it seems. Ukraine has been hitting the Russian oil ports and refineries however in places like Saint Petersburg.
Ukrainian rail transport relies on electricity. Thats why Russia had that campaign last year where they targeted Ukraines energy grid. To cripple the rail lines.
@@andrewcharles4349 only half of ukrainian rail lines are electrified, they switched to diesel locomotives on those pretty quickly. where they couldnt switch they moved off grid to generators. russians were very clearly not targeting rail lines while they only attacked in weather that requires homes to be heated. if they did, it was a complete failure of a mission. trains still are and have been the main mode of distance transport behind lines. that hasnt stopped at any point in the war. attacking railways anything further than artillery distance is pointless in a place as railway dense as ukraine.
@@mp40submachinegun81 The attack on the energy grid had multiple objectives. Reducing rail transport by 50% would be quite significant especially since its the primary means of moving equipment and personnel in bulk across the country.
@@andrewcharles4349 they couldnt possibly reduce rail transport by 50%, id doubt 10% even. they largely were not using electric locomotives, where they were was personnel transport far in western ukraine. the USSR literally designed ukraines rail system to be incredibly redundant during war, for this exact purpose. it was supposed to be the battlefield of the cold war if it went hot, as it was the battlefield of ww2. rails have always been an incredibly inefficient target.
@@mp40submachinegun81 yeah okay. Pretty much everything I understand about Ukraines rail transport tells me that its heavily reliant on electricity.
So, Ukraine just sank another Russian warship. This time a Ropucha class landing craft got swarmed by ship drones with some very interesting POV camera footage coming out showing the warship rolling over after taking numerous hits. Again, I have to ask if Aaron is going to contextualize his recent accusations and conclusions and interject them with the apparent non-stop losses the Black Sea Navy and the VKS are taking. In short, brother, you got some explaining to do.
At this point I’m only asking questions, but I’ll say that I am also a 20 year Active Duty veteran and also just recently retired to pursue opportunities in the contracting world overseas. If anything I’m very proud I can continue to serve the interests of our nation in my own way. I also intend to continue holding to principles that have helped me and many others through their service in uniform with integrity and service before self being truly important pillars. Integrity is key. Once you give people a reason to question your integrity it takes an immense amount to regain that trust again if it can ever be truly regained. You cannot put a monetary value on it.
playing Call of Duty is fun, the real thing - not so much
No respawn button
Ukraine had hundreds of thousands of well-trained soldiers before the conflict. According to Zelensky's recent interview with US media, Ukraine only lost thirty thousand soldiers since the war in Feb 2022. If it is true, Ukraine is not short of men, Ukraine doesn't need new recruits. What had happened to the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers? Somebody is lying.
Its sad that they wont convince enough men to sign up they will lose
Do you really think that the coke plant right on the contact line is used by either side?
Zelensky definitely needs coke. A lot of coke.
It’s not lack of men, it’s lack shells. Attrition warfare is trading men’s lives for shells. When one side runs low of shells, then the other side sits back shells the other to death because they’re no longer taking a lot of attrition damage. This is what happened in WW1 and it’s what happening in this war.
Best of luck with that title ;)
He lost a LOT of subscribers today, I bet.
He's already changed it.
What was the original title?
@@info_fox "Is Ukraine finally losing the war"
True hurts ?
"finally". ??????????
Nuts isn't it...but Americans now say they "could" care less when they literally mean "couldn't" : we're at point where they have totally dissociated from what words mean - I don't mean slang, I mean fundamental vocabulary so who knows what the dude actually means in his head 🤷♂️🤦♂️
What are they supposed to do @SubBrief?
He did not say there should be a ceasefire, he said the equipment he needs to break the stalemate and the west deemed it financially impossible.
not financially impossible, just self-deterrence. Never thought I'd see nato shy away from naked Russian aggression and atrocities.
I wonder if there are any frontline soldiers from Day 1 that are still fighting now.
Not too many I imagine.
doubtful
Most of them are with The Lord now
What a stupid war. Ukraine should not have played with the CIA and poked the Russian bear. They would have been left alone--like Belarus.
I used to trust what you had to say. I'm really sad, and blown away at how uninformed this is. God how can you say with a straight face that ukraine is allowing oil and gas to be delivered through the country. I could go on, but it's pointless. It was just the easiest to point at.. Other people have written much more eliqant and detailed rebuttles. I'm sad to be walking away from this channel I've not missed a video in 4 years. Good luck.
He has to be getting paid, only explanation.
@@reallyhappenings5597 Explanation maybe but not an excuse .
The west is not suppling true long ranged weapons to hurt Russia, do you agree? or are you a Russian bot.@@OfficialpKIndustries
this video seems like an anomaly for this channel, im completely suprised by the complete lack of research for this video.
my biggest problems with it are, acting like zaluzhny was fired for being too popular is just nonsensical to say. he just conducted a full campaign season of a failed counter offensive with seemingly little modification in strategy to adapt to the defenses and continuing to attack the same area of the line regardless of outcome. why in the world would he keep his job after failing, so he can expend what resources they have left. this seems like a complete oversight in the research of the video.
and from a naval guy the bigger omission, kerch bridge capacity has been severely limited. satelites prove much lower frequency of trains, much shorter trains, reduced road capacity, and large amounts of equipment being transported by ferries.
we have clear empirical evidence of this also which a naval guy leaving out raises some credibility concerns. strikes on rapucha class ships Olenegorsky Gornyak in august 2023 and Novocherkassk in dec 2023. both believed to be transporting supplies to crimea.
When I worked with Air Force personnel, they called it the "Peter Principle": soldiers are promoted to just past the limits of their capability, leading to poor resilts for their underlings.
I mean they ran out of weapons and people, so unfortunately they end up as Russian slaves again, it sucks to be neighbour of a Mordor.
Ukraine is geographically rather arbitrary and both politically and culturally divided. A fair percentage of Eastern Ukraine is culturally, linguistically and frankly politically aligned with Moscow. But I guess those people don't get self-determination.
@@M167A1 That's never been the case, my parents speak Russian, does not mean they want to live there. The only "cultural" difference between Ukraine and Russia is that one is a dictatorship and the other one is not,
@@M167A12 Rubles for you , comrade.
U know Patrick Lancaster? If not... search for him and educate urself.@@NeuroScientician
@NeuroScientician Ukraine literally supports Nazi collaborators, but yea... "freedom lovers"
I think the Kirch Bridge has to be hit in a specific window. If they attack too early then the russians can get the ferries running again like before the bridge. I think the timing for that is critical. I think think it has to be just enough before a major offensive so supplied become strained but not so early that they can restore it before Ukraine can take advantage. Furthermore they have to take out two bridges and the rail in a meaningful way.
Yea I don’t think he’s thinking much into it
I am from Louisiana. We have a long shallow water bridge very similar the Kerch Bridge. The pilings between the spans are the hard part of the bridge. So you have 300 odd hard points that cannot really be bombed to destruction. The spans? Sure you can knock a hole in them, maybe even drop a few in the water but patchwork functioning repairs take days or weeks at most. The pilings remain. Take a look at the Ponchartrain Bridge an youll see what I mean. They know this which is why their obsession with this bridge boggles my mind.
@@fresatxit's a symbol. Ukraine was sure that there's no way Russia could build that bridge, after war started they pledged to destroy it.
Ofc rail along coast that Russia is building (allegedly) is a lot more important, since there are ferries and military transports ready in case something happens to the bridge.
With what weapon system? Ukraine have nothing with that range.....over 320km
Exactly, easier said than done. It's doable but it's going to take a hell of a lot of weapons to really damage it long term.@@fresatx
I personally wouldn’t bail on our country but I absolutely don’t fault any of those Ukrainians who left. I wouldn’t hold a thing against them, like it’s not a bad idea to avoid getting sent to die or get permanently disfigured. I bet these units have like 240% casualty rates. Now they’re prob rebuilding some of these units for the third or fourth time and there’s no reserves or anyone else left to fill them with.
Avoiding being sent to war is a normal human reaction. You see it in Russia men leaving the country, only the ideologically motivated don’t need convincing or coercion to go fight
Also, the Ukraine (and Russian?) army is set up so that the only way out of the army is in a body bag, or to be so disabled that you can't fight anymore. They don't have what the US had in the Vietnam war where you serve for 12-16 months and then you get to go back to your life. It's absolutely unsustainable, and I do not at all fault the men who fled. I suspect that they would have a lot more men available if all they did was implement a 1-2 year conscription limit
@@Legitpenguins99 I think Vietnam is the wrong war to draw a point from. There was nothing about that war that was necessary or existential, hence we could leave and literally nothing happened to the US. Ukraine, on the other hand, is literally fighting for their continued existence as an independent nation. Maybe the US Civil War with their later 3 year enlistments or WWII for the duration is more appropriate. I don't think you would find any nation that willingly dismissed recruits after a one year hitch during war time. You do that during peacetime to build up a large reserve pool so that when war comes, you have hundreds of thousands or millions who have worn the uniform at some point and have had army training. Send them into refresher training, then to the front. That's how Germany and France fought WWI with millions of soldiers.
@@panachevitz They were at first, now they are just fighting for the two provinces they have been fighting over since 2014 in the far east. You know, the two with majority Russian speakers and who field at least two full 'volunteer' divisions who fight for the Russians?
Damn, Pavlo and Serhiy are like real life versions of the recruiting sargaent in Starship Troopers!
I like your naval stuff but i feel like there were a lot if inaccuracies here. What exactly are your sources on this? There were a lot of matter of fact statements from a self proclaimed non land experts.
Aaron, there are some aspects of this video which are not great:
1. The title seems to imply that you are rooting for Ukraine to lose, which I know you aren't based on other videos. Or your opinion has changed.
2. The Ukrainians are not exhausted physically but politically. Zelenskyy and his party, Servant of the People, have been unwilling to lower the age of conscription below 27 because it's unpopular and hard to stomach. This was apparently one of the main boiling points between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, as Zaluzhny wanted to mobilize 500k people. Zelenskyy was apparently also very upset when Zaluzhny published his very poignant "Stalemate" article in The Economist and when it all combines with the popularity issue you mentioned, you can understand why Zaluzhny was dismissed (though I disagree with it)
3. Avdiivka Coke is not under Ukrainian "Occupation" - poor choice of words. I also don't think the Coke plant has operated for some time, so its economic value is moot. Its real value lies in its hardened structures which turn it into a fortress (like Azovstal was)
4. The Syrski section is pretty good. I don't know his exact background and the whole "he never learned beyond a low level" thing but everything I have heard is that he is an obsessive micromanager with a complete disregard for casualties, which is very unfortunate. His appointment has certainly been bad for morale. I agree that Syrski will lead Ukraine to bloody failures, unfortunately.
Overall, Ukraine has a bad hand and they're playing it poorly right now. Europe has guaranteed something of a minimum of ammunition, but the next 3-4 months will be very difficult as Europe scales to meet more of Ukraine's needs. If the US could finally overcome the pro-Putin wing of the GOP which is denying aid to Ukraine, we could send them enough ammunition to cover the intervening time period and give Ukraine some breathing room. For their part, the Ukrainians can't engage in bloody urban combat in Avdiivka like they did in Bakhmut. They need to get back out into the fields where the Russians have to use their mechanized forces which have historically been much easier for Ukraine to destroy than their waves of infantry (see Vuhledar, Novomykhailivka, and Avdiivka itself going back to October)
We can give them a trillion dollars and free reign on our weapons stockpiles. Without bodies they mathematically cannot win. This 500k number is absurd and only makes sense if over half of that figure is women and children and even then none of them will be trained to even 3rd world standards. There is no way that Ukraine wins this by themselves. They will either concede and lose territory or keep fighting and lose it all. Also calling anyone that doesn't support a proxy war on the other side of the world "pro Russian" is blatant straw manning.
😄😂
What data is driving you to believe that Ukraine can win this? Do you understand logistics and how these shape wars? Do you understand that Russia will not run out of logistics (to include personnel) before Ukraine does? I know it is not what you want to hear (and it sounds like rooting for the other side), but you are not in Ukraine losing loved ones, or losing limbs, nor being psychologically damaged for life. The unfortunate thing here is that - unless NATO countries actually go into this war and fight alongside Ukraine - Russia will win. That's the realistic truth.
im not being critical but its not GOP this is a planed stoppage cspan 1990 intell committy joe blow said he knew there is going to be a stoppage by political party's ie its his own fault for the deaths that he causes its called politics for a reason i personally believe their giving Russia time to hang itself and also by urkaines own first founding president knew of this stoppage gave speech in poland and in urkraine duma 1990 knew that the west might not help he was looking for guarantees which we gave also also why were helping BUT YOU ACT LIKE EUROPE DONT NEED TO SLAP ITS SELF IN THE FACE WITH DIRTY TAMPOON AND DO IT OWN WORK AND NOT RELY ON USA there problem not ours
1: agreed, Aaron sort it out.
2: Agreed, although at some point someone is going to have to rectify the issue between opinion polling which suggests most ukrainians want the war to continue and the amount of men under the conscription age (27) who seem to not want to actually fight that war.
3. no idea, but the notion that anyone is making coca cola in Ukraine at this time is a little misleading to say the least.
4. Syrski went to Frunze during the Soviet days. According to RUSI he was also one of the leaders of the Karkhiv offensive which was so successful in 2022. He has a good reputation, and he has a better relationship with his NATO colleagues than Zaluzhny does. He is considered to be a forward thinker, but also someone who does not accept "I cannot" as an answer.
Mostly agree with your last point.
Hey man, Syrski reconquered from Charkow to Kopani more land then Kherson with fewer troops than the russians. Holding Bakhmut was by order of Zelenskyy.
Seems like Zelenskyy for whatever reason in pretty attached to the old ways of the Soviets.
In Kharkov Ukraine had 20k and Russia had close to 0. In Kherson Russia didnt loss on the field and was also outnumbered. How can you think Russia had more men, Russia went in with a small force of 160,000 which it managed to eventually top up to about 200k and Ukraine started with much more and mobalised many times. What maths are working with to say Ukraine had less men?
@@dbuckleton well russia has left 14,000 men in the fields around Avdiivka and those guys aren't going anywhere anymore ever .
@@balaclavabob001 im not following my friend, i think you have responded to the wrong person. Im the guy responding to the claim Ukraine had less soldiers than Russia.
@@balaclavabob001 And Ukraine has left its entire volunteer force dead or with permanent disability. Ukraine has about 36 million people, about 20% (being kind, that is the lowest number) are sympathetic to the Russians and have left or are fighting with the forces in the east. They have lost (again being kind, low numbers) 130k military casualties (25k dead) and 25k civilian casualties.
For context, the ENTIRE casualty count from the Blitz in WW2 was around 55k civilian casualties.
Ukraine does not has a volunteer problem, it has a conscription problem. They can't even force enough new fighters to keep up with attrition.
HE WAS NOT FIRED !!! HE WAS SHUFFLED !!! IDJIT !!!!!!!!!!
Aaron, ukraine lost this war 16 months ago. This has been going on for 12 months
it's difficult to know whats actually going on. Some channels say there is a stalement, some same ukraine are doing well, some say russia is winning. Who knows.
Well, Russia is slowly gaining ground and they don’t care how many of their troops die to get it.
Sarah Rainsford certainly doesn't!
Well we do know nobody has won after years and we know it appears nobody is going to win anytime soon.
@@EvoraGT430So you're trashing a BBC correspondent that was expelled from Russia in 2021? Ok... I guess anything that goes against your thought doesn't know.
I've been following a pro-Ukraine source for most of the war and even they are admitting Ukraine is losing ground.
Aaron, I really don't think your sources and research on this are all that great. You do cut a lot of falsehoods, but you're still misrepresenting the situation in my opinion and introducing new ones. The way your talking makes it sound like you're not following everything in Ukraine often enough for your BS filter to be fully calibrated on this one.
Yeah, he's making a lot of claims counter to ask if the facts I've seen.
Doesn't it strike you as odd that anyone who can do math and has some history in military science or geopolitics is saying Ukraine cannot win this war of attrition against Russia, and ALSO their comment section is flooded by 'Russian Shill' comments? Maybe its your BS filter that needs some calibration.
Ukraine is not the USA. Ukraine is not some 'bastion of democracy. Ukraine is not a country populated by people who are willing to fight to the death. Ukraine is not able to win a war of attrition, its basic math. Ukraine has already exhausted its volunteer force and its conscription pool is at the bottom of the barrel. Ukraine is becoming more and more desperate to find a solution because only NATO intelligence and high tech weapons (at great expense to the USA) are even holding back the tide.
Wars are a contest of wills, but only if a force can field and equip enough young men to stay in the fight. That's certainly Ukraine's challenge.
Meanwhile, Russia broke that dam and flooded all that part of the country because they were playing scorched Earth
There's no way in hell Ukraine is short on men, they haven't been fighting large enough battles and apparently they are only conscripting 27 year olds and older? So far it seems neither side has committed to a large scale offensive and instead choose to fight small skirmishes for the rest of time. For Ukraine initially that's fine, it gives them time to amass a real army then mount a large scale offensive to push the Russians back, but they aren't doing that. And if they thought Russia would give up, they were wrong. So what's the plan for either side here?
nevermind the thousands out of country in NATO training. seem to be trying to build numbers.
To see who taps out first essentially. If Russia taps, Ukraine gains their territory back. If Ukraine taps, they have to give territory to Russia. Keep in mind that there is always going to be a bit of disinformation. Is Ukraine short on men? Maybe. Are they facing a recruitment issue? Sure, and so is Russia. Like much of the world right now, the majority of nations are facing recruitment issues, especially the US.
Look how close the US got to winning in Vietnam, but pulled out from public pressure and couldn't conscript the men needed. Look at the amount of ordinance the US used in that conflict. While numbers are necessary, wars are won with a lot more than just numbers.
>There's no way in hell Ukraine is short on men
Then why on earth would they put a mentally handicapped on the front? Why the recent 500k bill (only turned down due to lack of funds)? Pure bollocks, that's what you're saying.
@@orzorzelski1142 How many mentally handicapped people has the US put on the front?? TONS.
How many people did the US prosecute for draft dodging in Vietnam? Tons!
You Russian bots act like these problems are unique to Ukraine, when the US has done and delt with the exact same thing. This happens in EVERY war.
Next tell me Zelensky is just an actor, while conveniently ignoring Reagan and Trump were actors lmfao.
When it comes to *Zaluzhniy* , the situation is indeed more complex than it seems initially. Internal factions have their own agendas, seeking to exploit our casualties, especially given the upcoming absence of presidential elections. These factions are visibly discontented. Essentially, there are both internal and external parties actively working to destabilize the partnership between Zelensky and Zaluzhniy, which complicates our strategic planning. In my opinion, replacing Zaluzhniy was a misstep.
I feel that it was a misstep, while I understand what was being said about new phase, new general. It is usually how war is played out. But Zaluzhny had an effective plan and the West deemed that plan financially impossible.
9:22 General Zaluzhnyi never advocate for ceasefire or even peace settlement. Don't get that basic fact wrong.
Glad to see Aaron has come to his senses about this whole Ill fated adventure.
No.
@@OfficialpKIndustries Ok, Comrade. 😆
Like many wars it is a battle of attrition and Russia can play the long game.
It's about their only strength.
@@M167A1Only ? Sure....😂😂
Yea they can
@@M167A1 👈😭
The war is 2 years old, the ones who where 16 or even 15. When Russia started to invade. Are now been recruited.
The Ukrainian sacrifice has been huge, but it cannot be sustained. It's very simple, without air-superiority of some kind (beyond drones), you can't win. With all the MANPADs etc. no side has been able to wield air power effectively.
While appreciate this channel, may want to stick to naval briefs- Bakhmut created a dramatically favorable loss ratio for Ukraine and single-handedly broke the back of Wagner leading to the brief insurrection and chaos that ensued. Bakhmut consumed significant amounts of Russian resources, and handily pinned them in one area disallowing them the freedom to conduct larger maneuvers elsewhere. With no significant defensive fortifications along the front, Ukraine utilized the urban terrain of Bakhmut expertly to bleed the Russians.
Far as why there's still a Kerch bridge and railways, that's thanks to NATO self-deterrence and now conservatives playing political football with Ukraine aid to give Trump something to campaign on. If Ukraine loses this war it will be because America allowed Russia to win.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Bakhmut was a loss for ukraine. Ukraine has no manpower to play atrition war with Russia.
This new/old guy is just there to loose more ukrainians in the grinder before this whole thing ends badly for ukraine as was obvious from the begining.
@@MatJan86 nato assessed 5:1 loss ratio- with no defensive fortifications the Battle of Bakhmut was a net win for Ukraine. A war of attrition was and is inevitable, and the battle afforded Ukraine the time to mass the tools needed to stop Russian major offensives along the front. While the battle was always going to be a loss for Ukraine- period- it was a pyrrhic victory for Russia and DIRECTLY responsible for the Wagner coup and resulting fallout, all of which were net wins for Ukraine.
@@MatJan86
Hi Sergei, I see the trollfarms have even discovered Sub Brief.
Not just that: Bachmut ensured Russia spent all winter attacking instead of recovering and training. If Ukraine gave it up, Putin would've still had a name on the map as propaganda, but Ukraine would've been forced into costly attacks to prevent a Russian buildup.
Loss ratios were at times above 20:1 to Russia's detriment. That sort of fighting, even though it was hellish, meant Russia would need to lose a million men to defeat 50000 Ukrainians.
We've NEVER given Ukraine enough to win. Just enough to drag it out and make it cost Russia more than they planned but it goes both ways. Ukraine is being bled white. Not saying Russia will win based solely on tactics and quality of equipment but they will most certainly win through sheer attrition.
And what in your military genius mind would be enough? $1 trillion USD instead of $250 billion USD?
@@reubensandwich9249he's got a point. We have a habit of just keeping allies going until we lose interest. Ask South Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan how well that aid worked out for them.
We've given Ukraine more in one year than we gave the whole of the Soviet Union through all of WWII, and that's adjusted for inflation. I don't think giving them our entire arsenal would win the day. I think there are several layers of failures as to why Ukraine is not currently winning, and several key aspects as to why they're still holding on so well.
@@reubensandwich9249You really don't have any idea how the fudnign operates, do you? Around 90% of it goes direclty to US companies. Ukraine gets old stuff at the end the shelf life (which otehrwise costs the US money to decommission), the US military gets new, more capable stuff to replace it.
@@Xenomorphine Another one... How much is the decom cost vs the transport cost to Ukraine? My bet is the decom cost costs less.
to hell with the cranes
Aaron, regarding the bridges; i think! there is nice unspoken rule between the sides that they d not attack critical bridges en mass, cause it d cut everythin east of Dnipro river => d cause also civilian crisis
I have identified several factual inaccuracies in your narrative, leading me to question the reliability of your data sources. Let's delve into your arguments and examine them closely:
You assert that Ukraine is facing a manpower shortage, which is indeed accurate. However, your subsequent claim that all eligible men are either on the front lines, injured, or have fled is entirely false. Ukraine has relied solely on a voluntary basis for army recruitment, resulting in challenges due to losses sustained over the two years of conflict. Opting for a voluntary recruitment system during an existential war raises significant concerns. From a manpower perspective, Ukraine could easily field a much larger army given its population of 44 million. While this requires financial, resource, and arms support, numerically it is not an insurmountable challenge.
Your assertion that Ukraine has mismanaged US support funds is grounded in some truth, acknowledging the corruption challenges prevalent in Eastern European countries. However, significant efforts have been made to address and improve this situation. Claims of poor management are often echoed in social media without concrete evidence. It's essential to recognize that the majority of US support funds are directed towards American arm manufacturers and subcontractors providing supplies to Ukraine, along with a substantial inventory of stored arms.
The claim of Russia possessing an 8:1 advantage in terms of men requires context. While Russia does have a numerical advantage in manpower, the frontline situation and the overall force disparity are not as significant. Estimates suggest that Russia has utilized around 1.5 million men, compared to Ukraine's 1 million. In terms of active frontline troops, Russia has roughly 400,000, slightly more than Ukraine. The key difference lies in Russia's ability to replenish its forces from reserves, estimated at 30,000 per month.
Your analysis of General Syrskyi's appointment to a leadership position is intriguing. However, it lacks essential background information on his performance and accomplishments. The evaluation appears somewhat arrogant, particularly when comparing it to the current army situation and available skills. Admittedly, I lack the knowledge to assess his competence.
Regarding the decision to hold Bakhmut, drawing parallels to historical events like the Battle of Bulge may not be entirely applicable. It is essential not to judge decisions prematurely without a comprehensive understanding of all aspects of the case and awaiting the final outcome.
Your assertion that Ukraine could hit and destroy the Kerch bridge appears improbable. Despite attempts, the bridge is distant and well-defended. The lack of long-range hitting capability from the US complicates the matter. Ukraine does not possess drones or artillery with the required range. Limited cruise missiles from France and the UK pose significant risks attempting such an operation. It is crucial to consider weapon range, geography, and the necessary firepower to destroy the bridge.
Finally, I question the rationale behind the US's reluctance to provide weapons to Ukraine, especially when your argument suggests their potential impact on the conflict outcome. The availability of weapons from US warehouses, possibly avoiding destruction, raises valid considerations. Additionally, considering the US's historical stance in favor of democracy and against totalitarianism, it raises questions about the current position.
You are missing a few important aspects:
1. The failed offensive that the previous general lead in a disastrous way by being too cautious and not concentrating on one area of the frontline like the US generals recommended
2. The russian loses in Bahmut were so outrageous that even a psycho like Prigojin cracked to the extent that he and his group were no longer a threat for Ukraine
3. This is war, not a popularity contest. We are very likely not aware of all the reasons that he got pushed aside
Well said.
Erm. Number 2? You make it sound like a Russian loss but I ‘member Bakhmut being a meat grinder for both sides but Russia won out in the end. So guess who won.
Also it’s noteworthy that what amounts to a penal battalion, according to some sources, caused Ukraine to bleed some of it’s better.
Yeah that’s not an AFU win right there.
Number 1. You think support is given without condition? The previous general was forced to abide by NATO doctrine albeit some flexibility. He has now either being scapegoated or became too difficult for proxy handlers to condone of.
Number 3. Oh you sweet summer child, what is war other than a popularity contest with muscle, industrial output, outcomes of engagement and increasingly popular opinion in an age of instant communication as its weights of balance?
Populairty matters more during informational warfare. IMO Ukraine is losing hard on that front even if they have done better on more historied examples of propaganda as taught to them by western spinsors hitherto.
Russia has several times the population to support this. Ukraine was never going to win, Russia will stay in Ukraine as long as it takes, a decade if necessary. Remember Afghanistan?
@@DoctorMangler I see your point, but Russia lost Afghanistan because of internal pressure due to the high level of casualties.
@@DoctorMangler Russia's population doesn't equal willing soldiers.
The US population was many times that of Vietnam's or Afghanistan's. Population does not equal soldiers equipped to fight and deployable.
You ask why there are railways, pipelines and bridges still intact. - The answer concerns an aspect of this war few people are permitted to openly talk about. Both Russia and Ukraine are still run by oligarchs who control those assets. In Ukraine many of the private militias (most of their remaining manpower and embezzled weapons) answer to those oligarchs before the Kiev military chain of command. Do not forget that both Russian and Ukrainian ex-KGB work with and in many cases actually are the oligarchs. Corruption is now far worse than before the war. Ignore the reports that Zelensky is fighting corruption, it's simply not true. He has luxury property all over the world.
Ukraine need equipment more than manpower
Yeah I'd bet that was blown out of proportion. A lack of men has rarely lost a war.
@bobbygetsbanned6049 A loss of manpower has lost many wars. If you can't field enough trained men to fight, you loose. Manpower ≠ sheer numbers on paper, not everyone can fight
@@sebastiannelson6355 Ok which wars then? Damn near every war lost is lost due to strategy, logistics, and now inability to out produce the enemy. Specifically what wars were lost based on lack of men??
Long range artillery for hitting the bridge which is 300 km behind the front? What are you smoking??
yep that's what I noted.......he should stick to subs mate!
For what it is worth, the bridge IS within HIMARs range, but only just and they would have to risk the launchers very close to the front. It is also within range of drones, of which many have been shot down for only a couple of successful attacks.
Wrong! Wrong! Ukraine do not have ATACMS, study before you write!@@fortusvictus8297
@@fortusvictus8297 even ATACMS they got has range of onl 165km and the Kerch bridge is beyond that... only way to hit it is if Su24 on a suicide mission fly into the enemy held territory in Zaporozhye and even then it is not guaranteed hit.
Hi Aaron, i guess waiting for another Countries Election is a good military strategy. Who would have guessed.
It would be an awful position to find yourself. One guy wins, you'll probably get the military aid you need. Another guy wins and, at best, you lose a good chunk of your country. After enormous losses in blood and equipment. It's very sad.
@@Chilly_Billygod forbid anyone else spend any money. We should make Europe pay us back
@@M167A1 make europe pay us back for the biggest US geopolitical W since ww2? 2nd biggest threat's army massively depleted for less than 10% of the defense budget, money that is getting spent anyways. you have to be incompetent with numbers to not see the win.
They don't have a choice.
WOW... Just... WOW...
correction: Ukraine HAVE LOST the Russia War
Math said Ukraine was always gonna lose.
Math said Israel was going to lose every time they went to war.
Math has no place in predicting victors.
the US knew that, they thought sanctions would have won before Russia's guns could
I wish the US and US media didn't lie about this war and especial Israel gaza war. They act like both events happened for no rational reason whatsoever.
SAME THING HAPPENED IN BOTH. The US backed forces were killing civilians, Ukraine killed ethnic Russian civilians and Israel was sniping Palestinian kids for throwing rocks. (They justify this by saying 'Rocks can kill') Yea well, Israel is maintaining apartheid state, they really cant complain about any retalliation.
@@slartybarfastb3648Israel is the exception that proves the rule. Math almost always decides, sorry.
Finland proved Russian maths is bad in 1939 too.
@@jf7243End the end? No. They put up an amazing fight but in the end math kicked in and they got worse terms than originally offered.
As for the railroads and roads between Ukraine and Russia, having them drawn on a map doesn't mean they are materially present and/or functional on the ground. As for the gas pipes, EU really asked Ukrainians to not destroy that infrastructure for Hungary, Austria and Slovakia.
Plus of course Ukraine is still paid transport fees for that Russian gas, and retains leverage over the dictator Orban in case they really need him to budge: Otherwise Ukraine just cuts off the gas from Orban's master in the Kremlin.
Ukraine losing fast would benefit Europe.
Excellent video! As for the increasing possibility of Russia winning the war, there is a video from Ward Carroll's channel, in which the video with Justin Bronk, talk about that prospect of Ukraine losing. Interesting video and topic imho
This is not your best video Aaron. Many of the bits of information that you share here aren't accurate. Syrskyi organized the defense of Kyiv in the early weeks of the war in near perfect chaos. He's a very capable general and certainly far beyond the skill level of a platoon leader. Did you fall victim to Ru propaganda perhaps? I'm used to better quality from your channel.
Agreed. It’s depressing to think that Aaron is showing his true colors. Don’t know if I could listen to someone who’s has no credibility.
@@glhmedic I'm genuinely shocked.. I like to think I have a fairly neutral take on the situation, and this was the most hamfisted uneducated, and bizarre read on the situation I've seen outside of RU propaganda. Where the hell did that come from.. I mean, how the hell, or where the hell does he get the idea from that Ukrain is still shipping RU oil across the country? Bonkers!!!
@@TheClumsyFairyIt came from the hamfisted, uneducated and bizarre BBC. Woefully left-wing shite.
Its poorly researched.
Railways and piplines are easy to check up on.
Zelensky is doing his best to save the young generation.
Sends the dad so the son wil live.
Aaron needs to stop and think befoee he posts
It's not RU propaganda, he is highly unpopular in the Ukrainian army, he has a reputation as careless with his men. This maybe true, or just bad mouthing him, I have no idea.
Well your last question is easy to answer. They expect to be able to use those resources after the war is over. Which may be soon. Russia is also having recruitment problems. They're throwing convicts into battle, sacrificing dozens of lives for each foot of ground. This isn't over yet. And weirdly enough, Ukraine and Russia may be waiting to see who wins the next presidential election before they begin to negotiate.
Been doing that since last year and yet the Russian army keeps growing and rearming itself, it was always a simple calculous, one country has a larger manpower reserve and local production, the other has less manpower and is 100% reliant on external help.
@@joaomiguelmoreira6363 Wouldn't say the Russians are growing. There are countless intercepted telephone clals and veven video pleas for help, from Russian personnel who are very open about how they had one or two days of 'training', at best, where they weren't even given guns for shooting practice with.
Except they aren't building new stuff. They are throwing T55's in to battle because they have runout of t72's, t80's and T90's. There are no T14's to put in to battle and most of Russias equipment and supplies comes from Iran. Most of Russia's industry was coming from Ukraine.
Russias had pretty solid recruitment numbers actually. They only recruited from prisons once and got about 10’000 volunteers who fought with Wagner and their contracts have long since been fulfilled.
@@andrewcharles4349 Many of those contracts have been artifically extended without permission. They've also been 'recruiting' from prisons on an on-going basis. They were even deliebrately turning heating down in prisons to levels which are life-threatening, to force convicts to sign up.
That would make sense, but, the guy that got fired was the commander of the guy that got promoted. He got handled by the president because he was not a good commander. That is evident by his subordinates performance.
UK/France isn't allowing the Stormshadows to be used against the bridge. The US has refused to supply ATACMs with unitary warheads too. So if you want to know why the Kerch Strait Bridge is still up I suggest you ask Jake Sullivan.
I think Aaron should just stick to the waters
Yes I think so
Not a good sign for Russia needing the help of 15,000 Nepalis.
The same source that said that thousands of Syrians, North Koreans and many many more fought for Russia?
And that is not what happens, or?
they are we have videos of them...@@MrCastodian
Europe is full of them start recruiting
Become like Pavlo more like Pavol and lose arm 😂 😂
Didn't realize you are a Russian apologist, Ukraine has to make some hard decisions they are at war so conscription and lowering the age should be on the agenda 😮
How is any of this being a Russian apologist?
I did not see a Russian apologist. This is refreshing compared to channels where just asking question is seen at outrageous behavior. My Friends!
I think what has surprised me about this video is how much it is full of opinion and anecdotes when I am used to hearing facts and research. This is uncharacteristic of this channel. Nevertheless, there's nothing wrong with taking a break from the usual and airing opinions. Thanks, Aaron.
Its not anecdotal that they are not doing well. They say it themselves.
These are my initial thoughts also.
@@mindstate1"They say" is the very definition of an anecdote.
Spot on.
If Arron wants to talk about why Ukraine is where it is he should ask his government why they forced Ukraine to fight the war USA style whilst the USA denied them the weapons to fight the war USA style, ie combined arms.
Oh it's suddenly gone quiet.
Wow what a shrill.
I follow pro-Ukraine sources for war updates, and even they admit that Ukrainian has a manpower shortage and is slowly but surely losing ground.
Ukraine is Germany in 1944
I have seen that picture of Avdivka (4:50) before and it just make me think of all the folks/families from those abandoned apartments who may have lost a loved one and possibly everything they own. One women (50's) and her mother (80's) were still living in the city and only evacuated last week. The women cried at all of the destruction she was finally seeing as she was driven out of city. She then said to her mother "you are lucky you are blind, so you can't see what happened to our city". - The Russians need to be kick out period with the support of the entire west.
We are failing to aid these people, its not only their loss if they lose any more land. We as American citizens elect people that restrict and or delay aid to these people, huge shame to anyone who is against support for UA.
we give more more to Ukraine then American poor, people fight wars not money. This was bound to happen from day one. back in 2014 when US started giving arms aid.
@@cb-ms1xt Right, right, all that cold-war surplus that could feed the poor.
@@cb-ms1xtShut up Putin shill. 90% of aid to Ukraine STAYS IN THE US!
Trusting americans is always bad idea.
@@dan8085 You are making bridges from decommissioned Cold War ammunition?
Imagine the civilians hiding from your duty while also wanting russia to lose and begging America to help without helping yourselves. wow.... Sad modern generation. But we all know russia wins war..
Send women too, why only men? We are equal.
Lack of recruits, supplies and gargantuan corruption.
2 outa 3 correct ain’t too bad bud
@@zacharymacadam7416 you think Ukraine isn't corrupt?
Shhhhh! Do not mention the "C" word or a certain subset of persons will label you a "putin shill" and worse.
Reality is an ugly thing that ***some*** folks would prefer to pretend did not matter.
@@hideoeduardokojima8340 K in Ukraine stands for Kurruption
lol I thought it was a Coke-a-cola plant this whole time. 🤦♂️
U thought so because u are from the Western countrie
Bro same lol.
Glad I'm not the only one
fuel for the furnaces at the azovstal steel plant in mariupol. doesnt matter for the war effort, hasnt been producing anything since the start, but important if russia wants to rebuild that steel plant the ukrainians held out in for months in mariupol. 157 km (98mi) striaght down a major highway from the steel plant.
Basically we need to tell Ukraine that she needs to produce her own wepons and do so en mass. Not totall self sufficiency (midget subs and aircraft should come from the west), but for the most part, yes. Tanks, missile boats and so forth.
So, tl;didn't watch: some people are finally catching up with what some people said from the very beginning, that ukraine can't win a prolonged conventional war of attrition? Whew, that only took 2 years!
With all due respect, sir, as per military regulations implemented since the onset of the conflict, men between the ages of 18 and 60 are restricted from exiting the country.
Can't have people voting with their feet
What is grammar
" Pro-Palestine Hackers Penetrate US Navy's 5th Fleet; 'Secret Document, Military Base Data Accessed'. "
What are grammar?
Are are are
@@Wild_Danimal 🦭🦭🦭
Baby don't hurt me
dont shy away from voicing your opinion due to dislikes or hate comments its good for people to hear all sides and have rational debates if any of what your saying isnt true let them cite sources to prove you are wrong.
Ukraine joined EU economic group for finance , there was no WAR everyone was in peace . Even Russia was exporting gas and oil to EU . There was peace everywhere.
However we find that Ukraine (part of USSR) wanting to join NATO which has led to this unwanted WAR in the first place.
We ended the cold war of 80s and 90s jointly by US and USSR on 2 agreements
1)USSR will be split into different countries but none of them will ever join NATO or cause any threat to Russia.
2) Both US and USSR agreed on this in principle.
So Ukraine needs to apologize, stay away from NATO and be part of EU Economic Zone and live in Peace. There is no need to have this unnecessary WAR in first place.
Apologize to Russia and have them their way. What could possibly go wrong. Fucking lol.
Ukraine is f'n done. That's it. Your Eastern provinces have been appropriated, all the way to the black sea. You'll be lucky to get Odessa when this is done.
You shouldn't have let Obama and Victoria Nuland talk you into a coup.
The freshman level of conjecture in this video stinks.
Most information presented here is false.
they're so short on men they've started sending me youtube adverts for volunteer brigades again.
No thanks. This infanteer isn't into adventurism anymore.
Especially when the company I work for has a labourer who is a able-bodied 20 year old Ukrainian man. If their own people won't die for Ukraine, why should I?
Units sailing and getting ready for Steadfast Defender, Italy and France are also preparing to deploy Carrier groups to the Indo-Pacific for the first time in who knows. Clock is ticking on how long the Ike CSG can stay on station in the Red Sea and if there will be a NATO carrier available to relieve her in Prosperity Gaurdian...lots of interesting Naval points happening dude, be great to hear your views on some of them.
Not sure why you're taking this perspective and arguing for it so vigorously. As you said, you're not an expert in land warfare. Sometimes I wonder about your credibility. Who's giving you your information? This video reads like propaganda.
Its called being paid off.
Well, he did literally publish a paid political ad some weeks ago, and that too was quite misleading.
@@skelenton92Political ad for who?
It's called math and being a free enough thinker that you don't conflate being a good citizen and patriotism with nationalism or blind adherence to the party line.
Anyone who has ever read a single book on military history knows how this must end. Ukraine does not have a volunteer army remaining, they have a conscription problem even forcing enough bodies into service to keep up with attrition. After the initial pushback of the invasion (which was honorable and good), everything else has been a bloodletting with a pre-determiend outcome. Much like the European war after the summer of '44, sure they will win some battles but the outcome is unavoidable.
@@fortusvictus8297 They do all the fighting, NATO does all the arming. That's a winning formula. Russia has a much bigger recruitment problem and much less money than the western coalition.
I have to say this is one of a more biased reviews from you Arron
Ukraine had a huge surge of volunteers after Russian invasion in 2022. There actually wasn't a mobilization since the war started. Zaluzhny called the manpower problem openly and got fired for it. But the problem does exist. Ukrainian parliament has still not approved the mobilization bill, for it is too politically toxic.
Ukraine has no winning strategy.
Suggestion is to read what institusions like Rusi are analyzing with some academical rigor. Not opinions that are easiy tainted by smooth political directions.
This opinion video is based on a note circulating around that says troops are demoralized, wich is a very very broad and questionable piece of propaganda statement, unless there is proof that all 100% of Ukr soliders say the same.
Very unbecoming of this channel to do this.
¿Finally?...
Yes, finally the war is starting to end, is that not good?
@@MrCastodianno
its not starting to end, its the same cope u said last year@@MrCastodian
Scary thought. That people in the US would act the same way . We saw evidence of that during Iraq and Afghanistan
most women already know that most countries need more men