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WORST March in 8 YEARS, It's Better to Live in a WAR ZONE for Some, 2023 Canadian Housing Market
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- čas přidán 27. 03. 2023
- Forget Bidding Wars, March's data shows it's the worst March in 8 years. We're about to enter the Fear Stage of the Asset Bubble, and I've updated the Fibonacci Retracement chart to see where real estate prices are and where they may go. Lastly I go over a couple of recent news articles that discuss how some Ukrainian Refugees are opting to go back to their war torn country because of affordability and lack of employment in Canada. Also, that is not my boat, just a picture I took a few years ago.
Links/resources:
kitchener.ctvn...
www.cbc.ca/new...
Stages of an asset bubble infographic
transportgeogr...
Here I am 26 years later thinking to find another place in the world to call it forever home... The uncertainty , financial crisis, banking manipulation and the fear of losing my life investment make feel no longer loving it here in Ontario... Not to mention the greed and selfishness of people as well as disinformation of some youtubers! Thank you again for being real :)
Thanks for sharing you thoughts. I've thought about it too but it seems my home country of Ireland is just as bad with home prices, affordability, and government problems so going to stay here and fight. Thanks for watching and supporting
Unfortunately the current government has made so much propaganda over the last 4-5 years that people have lost their sense of economic responsibility and actions have consequences. We have become so accustomed to left liberal thinking that fiscal responsibility is translated into cuts of social programs. Parties on both sides of isle represent different sets of corporations and liberals are good at is putting lipstick at pigs and winning elections. Doug Fords conservatives have been equally inept at running Ontario. Quality of life has consistently dropped in this country over the last half a decade.
Yeah, me too, I want to go somewhere else in the world where a one-bedroom rental does not take 150% (or more) of one's income.
@@jonflynn where you born in Ireland or parents.
I would like to see civilians who are professional purchasers audit local government spending. On a non paid, volunteer sort of way. Then present the findings with plans to save. I know my schoolboard has a budget of $110 million.
Thanks Jon. I've been watching your videos for a bit over a year now, and you've been bang on with your analysis EVERY time. Objective data and no hype. A breath of fresh air.
Thanks for the support and for watching.
Well, I am Ukrainian from an area very close to the war zone. And I am still in Ukraine and planning to come to live in Canada. I used to live in the USA in 5 states - North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Florida. So I have some idea how much we spent on rent and how much we earned $. So watching youtube videos about Toronto and Vancouver ABSOLUTELY blows my mind HOW MUCH MONEY real estate cost or people spend for rent, compare earnings! IT'S JUST NONSENSE!!!
I understand why that's happening- I used to work with real estate and have a masters degree in business. BUT STILL WHY I see those prices? Unbelievable...I just want to add one suggestion- if you are going to Canada you better have saved a lot of money! Because Canada is not a land of opportunity, unless you are an IT person with very high skills!
I wish everyone peace and happiness. And Definitely do not discourage you from coming to Canada!
This message is more to support channel and tell Ukrainians, life is difficult in Canada for new immigrants.
It's much worse than that. I would consider the radius of 120 km around Toronto as being completely unaffordable in terms of RE price.
Stay covered Max... hope you land somewhere peaceful although that is dwindling everywhere it seems... Im a senior in Ontario and largely our country is ruined by taxes and idiot prov and fed level leadership.... the land of milk and honey is soon to become a valley of tears and rage...
@@Sir-Robalon very possible :(
Thanks for the comment and sharing your first hand knowledge of the situation. I hope for a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine soon.
Calgary and other cities in the Prairie provinces have large Ukrainian populations and are more affordable. I expect you know this already but, just in case.
I kinda get annoyed when I see my local realters smiling on their adds showing extremely overpriced homes and saying the market is getting great. I live in Halifax, and houses here literally doubled in value since 2019 in certain neighbourhoods. Rates are high and unless you have a huge downpayment, your mortgage payments will be very high (considering the avg income for NS). It's getting frustrating seeing these ads. I feel sorry for people that would suffer and maybe lose their homes in the process, but I hope the prices will come down here another 20 or 30% because the way it is today is making so many people lose their hope of home ownership.
looks like NS will be a good recipient for big price drops once recession hits. Lots to gain lots to lose. Hang in there.
It's a cold country, with long early morning commutes, long hours plus few holidays, and high cost of living, so the job and educational opportunities have to be worth it. Increasingly, it is just a grind in most Canadian large cities.
Yes, true. Modern day slavery in my opinion. Debt or cost of living slavery.
I think for alot of people in Canada it's just surviving, not actual living. There needs to be change.
@@DA-pt1em fish rots from the head, as Eastern Europe proverb goes.
We all know who's responsible, who's in charge. It's first and foremost the results of corrupt government practices, which were unopposed for the last couple of decades. Especially the last 10 or so years, pretty much brought Canada to this mess.
I think there will be change. We may not like it though.
In america,. A guy who has the same business as me, owns a home, and has money for a boat. I just rent and live cheque to cheque in Canada.... Same business....
Your honesty and integrity at presenting the actual data is very refreshing. Reading through the comments you can tell watching your videos for many is like listening to our own hearts and intuition telling us - how ugly things really are across Canada - oppose to mainstream media!
Great comment, thanks for watching.
Supreme - That's so true. Just reading Jon's comments vs other realtor's tells a story itself.
At this point I have no sympathy or care for some realtors in Vancouver. Mine tried to get me into another bidding war. I just gave up on BC. Its garbage property for an absurd price tag. They're knowingly putting all these people at risk for their own benefit. So many people are cutting costs to absurd levels trying to afford mortgages right now. It's just messed up seeing realtors lie and fuck this market up even more. Short term gains and then they'll need new careers.
unfortunately realtors have been trained and groomed to sell properties and not look out for peoples best interests.
@@jonflynn You are right, 4 years in bc , deal with 4 realtor , no one look out for my interest. You need to protect your own interest.
They give you the impression that BC is running out of land. When in fact BC is bigger than Germany France and England combined
@@m.b5777 Exactly, the whole thing is a manufactured problem. BC is HUGE. There is no sensible reason for the current house prices. It all comes down to poor monetary policy, incompetence and greed.
Buying and selling realtors are colluding together. They don’t have your best interests at heart. They have their own interests as a priority. They will no longer bring pricing information of similar sales in the area. They don’t care. Just pay the asking price no matter what it is. Even if the last sale was 100k less. Do your own research people or you will over pay. Get to know the market. With all the information we have available to us now, do realtors really deserve the huge commissions they are getting? Do they bring that much value to the table?
Excellent post Jon! We're now at the time of year that many Realtors / sellers are pinning their hopes on. The "strong" spring market will turn into a summer filled with excess listings and sellers will need to reassess their asking prices. If you're looking to purchase, wait till late summer. Don't "buy" into the hype generated by many Realtors. All imo.
well said, very true.
yea my realtor told me that the boc is going to cut rates. idk where they're pulling their data from lol
Recently had a seller in Niagara end the deal over 10k. The sellers ultimately terminated a week later after the deal fell through.
Seems like a lot of realtors still promising huge sales over listing… grab your popcorn lol. Thanks as always, appreciate your insights !
Thanks for sharing.
Great charts Jon. I would be focusing on that mean line and 42% level. IE that's where it will just dip under as an "overcorrection". I say this because the Fed gov't seems to be living on their own planet ramping up immigration. A crazy move given the tight housing market, medical support, schooling etc.
Also, I'm watching the UST2Y yield recovering above 4%. Next key level is getting above its 50 day moving average at 4.4%. J Powell scared the markets silly when he said he didn't see rates being cut anytime this yr. LOL. I never expected a cut, not sure what the markets were thinking.
In Kitchener-Waterloo I've heard of realtors selling homes to people only drop to have their new home drop 100k+ and mortgage payments so high the new homeowners had to get second job. Another situation where they bought a home and could not sell the old and they ended up having to back out of new home because the old wouldn't sell. The seller of the new home sued them because they didn't buy.
I bet there's lots of that going on right now, heard more than a few stories myself.
Jon, Everything in Kitchener Waterloo region has been selling like crazy and people are still paying way over asking. Townhouses that would have sold for 450k in mid 2020 are selling for 800-840k now... which is insane. I find it hard to believe I will ever afford anything and doubt prices will return to a reasonable price that is affordable... Canada is crazy
Same in Durham Region. I don't think this is going away. I'm not happy about that as a Realtor and Canadian. Affordability is possibly gone forever.
Keep calm
It will go like dominoes soon
80%+ of buyers there are investors. Government needs to step in. Capitalism is out of control. People and corps with deep pockets are fucking the rest of us
April is already showing rising inventory and declining prices. Stay strong.
Really appreciate the time and work you put into your channel and videos I’ve been watching for a few months now while I wait on the sidelines in Halifax.
It’s very refreshing to see an honest & ethical realtor.
No problem, thanks for watching.
Excellent video Jon. Very prescient insights at 5:45 that show this housing crash is going to rapidly accelerate to the downside over the next 18 months. Looking forward to seeing your play-by-play videos on this over the next couple of years...
Thanks for watching
I like how you use data to back what you state. An opinion without data is just another opinion. You have the Data. Great Job!
Thanks!
Completely agree with you! Why in the world would anyone from any other country think canada is land of opportunity. My 20 y old daughter just lost her GP because she used walk in doctors instead of waiting months to see her doctor. Doctors are on a silent strike but no one can talk about it. Housing affordability is definitely not a draw to canada for many people escaping any type of crisis country
I could go on!
it's sad. My doctor quit/retired in 2021 in the middle of the pandemic because it was too much paperwork and BS
@@jonflynn our family doctor also retired at the beginning of pandemic and replacement doctors filled up before we could act. So now we rely on walk in clinics and random pharmacies for advice or Dr google. Living downtown Toronto, not sure how our experience compares to suburbs or rural
@@ArcticCoder I hate particle board!!
In Hamilton it is again like 2020. Lot of properties 10, 15 offers, people are blind bidding like crazy. I don’t know John despite these rate hikes nothing seems to change unless it’s engineered this way.
it will be short lived, lots of pent up demand still. Already looks like it's losing momentum. Inventory seems to be increasing.
Thanks for the video. It's refreshing to see someone in the real estate space who actually understands economics.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Your honesty is appreciated Jon
Thanks, much appreciated.
Hi Trent
Still hoping prices collapse? 😄
Hope? Hahaha. Shane, you are one of my favorites
Hey Greg!
Thanks for the video John. The economy is very strong but to live here is getting more expensive. Someone should fix this. Nothing make sense anymore when it comes to buy a house. But for sure I am not looking to leave. I still love Canada 🇨🇦
same here, it will get fixed once we get rid of those idiots in Ottawa and replace with someone with common sense.
Nobody is gonna fix shit unless we force them. The Conservatives and the Liberals BOTH put us in this mess by their policies going back at least 30 years. NDP is fake left. We have no real left wing to keep these capitalists accountable
A very LARGE part of the early spring buying resurgence was in fact speculators exercising cognizant knowledge that Chartered Banks/OSFI/BoC/CMHC/Finance are all 'on the hook' to support current valuations = bailouts and a 'can't lose' investment.
One needn't look any further than the now ~170,000 'triggered' former Variable Rate Mortgage holders presently on Bank 'accommodation' fixed payments NOT even covering interest on their loans.... the 'principle' being tacked onto extending amortizations with most now above 35 years and some out to 45 years.
Banks/OSFI/BoC/CMHC are in a very precarious juncture for the Canadian Financial System...... Banks are merely "extending and Pretending" in the Mortgage Portfolios and have basically served the "problem" into the BoC/OSFI/CMHC's court as to how to 'save' the Financial System and Real Estate in Canada ? because there is NO WAY much of this now 170,000 Mortgages will be able to renew at current rates = FLOOD of supply coming !
I love how many people forget about this very important stat. Thanks for sharing in detail. It's a circus 🎪
Housing bubbles have inflated and popped all around the world. There isn’t a single instance of a government presiding over a housing bubble successfully preventing it from popping because it would have been financially inconvenient if it did. They always correct.
To all of those middle aged Canadians living in a home they wouldn’t qualify for today… You think you will have a doctor when you are 75? There isn’t any reason for an educated person under the age of 30 to stay in Canada.
Top-notch video and thanks so very much, Jon...!! Very well researched and backed up with reliable data. You are a real treasure...!!!
My pleasure! Thanks for watching.
Great presentation of facts as always, Jon. Thank you
My pleasure! Thanks for watching.
I recently listed my condo in woodstock at the 2021 market price (about $40,000 down from peak of about $325000). Very little interest so far. Flexible on price but constrained by needing to purchase something else afterwards. I’d happily drop my price further if the prices where we’ll buy next also drop.
Wow 2019 prices. Everywhere is at different stages it seems.
@@jonflynn sorry meant to say 2021 prices
honestly, I would be really surprised to see that Canada and other developed country who has serious housing bubble getting better anytime soon. Politicians all know what is going on, and they are all aware of how much resources are mistakenly allocated to real estate, but at this point, all they can do is to kick the can further down the road. The housing bubble will pop eventually, but whether it will be this time or not, only god knows. Thanks for being so honest Jon, it is very rare for a realtor to throw out facts like this, all other realtors I know are still saying that this is the last good opportunity to buy before the rate cut(well they can be right, but if they are wrong, they will experience the same destiny or worse as those realtors in the 1990s after the Toronto housing crash)
I offered on a house that had been sitting for a month. A dream home for us and the only one under $550k that wasn’t a dump. However, that day, two more offers came in. A cash offer won. There’s no inventory either, so it does feel helpless out there.
I hope price drops come with more inventory.
Inventory will increase into the late spring and summer.
Beyond brilliant! One of the few CZcamsrs putting the most probable reality on the table with lots of hard data. Two points/questions: 1) If you were still in the process of fleeing Ukraine, would Canada or the USA make a better choice? Of course, my whole life, Canada was the automatic and obvious answer, but now…, if I wanted a home with my Ukrainian money and I wanted a job…, I probably would bet on the States. No? Other question 2) I’m relatively familiar with the Fibonacci Sequence in a variety of settings in things related to biology, but not with regard to Economics. I will research it, for sure. But, a brief explanation from Jon might be helpful, although he’s probably done it in an earlier video that I’m unaware of. My suspicion is that growth should occur according to the Fibonacci Sequence, and when you are over it, or under it, you should expect a reversion to it. Similar, to a reversion to a Mean, but I could be entirely wrong about that. I’m thinking off the cuff, instead of Googling.
USA
Florida or somewhere more affordable.
God bless you. We loved watching couple of your videos with real data backing up your comments. Looking forward to your next video.
I appreciate that
For the employment data I would suspect the same as the US - where the numbers seem high but that is driven by people doing multiple jobs just to make ends meet. I know of a few that are doing just that.
I'd believe it, lots of part time or low paying jobs.
Jon, you're awesome, and you are backing everything with solid data. Emotional has no place in economics, where the future of our next generations are at stake.
We are seeing troubles ahead like never before.
There will be pain for many before blue skies arrive.
Very interesting. Thank you my friend for the effort level in research you put into your videos for us.
no problem, anytime.
Thank you Jon, for your honest and professional opinion on the market conditions
I truly believe you should be on TV,so more people can see you and make right decisions!
Thanks for the encouraging words of support.
Do you expect a similar decline in prices in BC? I am currently living in the Okanagan and I believe its come down a bit but not that much. Planning on leaving soon because of it. Love your content
Yes, they had some pretty big increases if my memory is correct so they will have similar to the downside.
@@jonflynn Is there anyone you recommend on youtube that talks about B.C.'s Real estate? The one's I've seen are just pumpers so I can't get honest info on it.
March 17 saw and article from Globe and Mail regarding Canadian Real Estate. Sub heading said "buyers and sellers adjusting to real estate's new normal". Signs are there that we are in that phase of the bubble bursting.
Thanks for sharing.
If you look at the trend of the graph at 4:00, just bringing us back to average would be approximately $500k. The exponential growth phase started around Q1 2016. Crazy to think about.
It will all catch up.
outstanding as usual Jon... three weeks ago pickering sold for $130 large over list 30 year old two storey brick of lower quality build in its time...just over $1m.. of course the realtor underlisted... its a dogs breakfast....
The data and the man of
Real estate ,deliver good point👍.all the best
Thanks.
It is true. It is very hard for immigrants to find a job in Canada unless you are in IT. Even highly skilled people cannot find a job because every employer demanding Canadian experience. But how can you get Canadian experience if you cannot get job in Canada.
It' hard for Canadians to get a job too without experience! This has always been the case. I was downsized when I turned 50 was a professional and then nobody wants you to work for them because of your age and no experience.
Thanks for commenting.
You know there is trouble in housing market when Minto Homo in Ontario are reducing price to sign up fast and save 100 000$. Stay safe everyone, they can take their houses. I am starting to look oversea, Canada is out of reach I don't want to be debt slave till I drop 80 years old.
better off to by an RV in Canada.
Thank you Mr. Flynn! I been keeping my eye on your graph over the months, crazy how close it keeps looking 👀.
Thanks for watching and commenting.
days ago, released foreign buyer bans to allow those with working visa can buy...and furthermore just now...talking about release amortisation so...previously expecting those force-selling supply even further drifted down...
will this affect price expectation coming forward? or just still anyways no matter what the fact-changed, just still all the way expecting a drop like hell?
Check out this weeks video, I share my thoughts on both topics
All i have to say is that YOU ARE THE BEST MY BROTHER. Thank you for helping us by giving correct information ℹ️
I appreciate that
There's plenty of buyers, but hardly anyone's qualifying for mortgages. Don't forget they're still adding the stress test of 2% extra. So people are trying to qualify for 7% rates. A million dollar home at 7%, forget it.
very true.
Excellent work Jon. BTW If you compare any US stock market chart to your Housing chart you will notice something interesting.
I'm not sure I understand the line that traces capitulation & return to the mean. Surely no one expects average prices to drop below $300,000? I think the "mean" should rise more steeply and end up somewhere around the $600,000 level. In the end, housing is not the same as the stock market: land/houses have inherent value - people have to live somewhere.
unfortunately it has become like the stock market. The only reason it hasn't totally crashed and burned is because yes people need to live someone and because they've been squeezed out of the market by investors and speculators over the past 5 to 10 years they are keeping the market afloat for now.
Thank you John! Love the insight you provide..
Do you have any idea how all this may impact the used vehicle industry?? Cuz that for some reason seems super intense with prices just going up for vehicles and availability going down. Would love to hear your thoughts!
Good question, I own a third of a used car dealership with my brother and his girlfriend so have seen the sharp rise in used car prices there also. I don't analyze the market like I do in real estate but there's many similarities. Low interest rates and expanded money supply meant more money chasing less cars. Supply chain issues are also a major problem in that industry. You can't easily get many new cars such as Toyota hybrids etc which in turn drives up the used car market. This will all change when the recession comes and many people can't afford their payments anymore. I've already seen a sharp rise in repos but until unemployment starts to rise and economy slows it will most likely remain a problem.
I am on Vancouver Island and there is absolutely no deals to be had. Inventory is still really low and the asking* prices are still at peak levels.
Your videos and statistics are excellent. Love your honesty. I agree with everything you’ve said.
I appreciate that! Thanks for watching
The average person cannot fathom that they are being lied to about absolutely everything.
Sheeple, only 10-20% are aware of reality, the rest are living subconsciously and just following what they've been taught to do.
@@jonflynn I agree. 10-20% question the narrative. Thanks for your charts and info.
I really respect you because it seems so rare to find an honest realtor in what has become such a dishonest profession of mostly snake oil salesmen. As I say all the time understand realtors are people and they have to earn a living as well but the level of greed is shocking. And they are convincing people to make the biggest financial decision of their life in bad faith without providing them with the full picture. Its just buy buy buy at all cost. Leaving many people in financial difficulties. I know they must hate you for exposing the truth. Dont let them get to you.
Btw what happened in 2015 that started the house craze we have today? In your chart and many others I have seen I realize that the prices and frenzy started becoming irrational around that time.
Thanks for the comment. Surprisingly I don't get much if any pushback from other realtors. I don't think they have a good counter argument so they don't pursue it. In 2015 speculative investing really picked up due to low interest rates and relatively affordable housing, this continued to gain momentum due to the wealth affect further fuelled by low interest rates and here we are today.
in Feb....predicted confidently March would be recording a drop..... then turns out not the fact so happened.... then keep confidence to make predictions....
🎉🎉🎉
I don't fully understand your comment but I don't remember saying March would drop, I predicted into the spring it would drop like the last few years.
I had a Ukrainian coworker return this week, said he doesn't make enough money to afford to live here. Employed full time with certification that the company is desperate short of.
crazy, thanks for sharing.
Jon must be a trader... haha! First head and shoulder pattern, now Fib levels. Respect!
lol, nope. I'm not oblivious to trading but it's actually the reverse, real estate has become a traded asset class or commodity so trading patterns and charts are now applicable to our data. Something like that.
Real estate market is very emotional so it makes sense to look at technicals which are supposed to encapsulate the market sentiment.
@@jonflynn very reasonable and logical, i agree!
@@susanstewart1402 👍🏻👍🏻
It just doesnt make sense to buy unless you absolutely need a certain type of property. If prices decline 2-5% for the next 5 years, its cheaper to rent!
in my area it's cheaper to rent even if prices stay the same. Purchasing an average home will cost $3500/month, renting that same house is $2500 with no down payment and no maintenance to worry about.
Jon, be careful your real estate license might be revoked for sharing these charts 😂
I'm waiting for the day, sooner or later someone will try to shut me up. I have a surprise waiting for them.
😄
Thank you John. Great content, much appreciated
Very welcome
Yikes. The truth hurts.
Thanks for another good talk.
Great analysis. Appreciate the regular updates. Would love to hear your thoughts and analysis on the Kitchener/Waterloo region; specifically Detached homes. Super low supply, interesting demand in Waterloo. Any details would be appreciated. Thanks Jon!
I can save you some time. Bidding wars and low inventory.
Yep, what Chad said but first few days of April aren't looking so good for prices though.
Thx for all you do Jon, look forward to the weekly videos. I'm sitting here in Crystal Beach, within view of the beach looking at all the 3 season cottages on the market here for $500 000 that need work. These have been on the market for many months with no movement. Down the road in Fort Erie proper, one can buy a brand spanking new townhouse for $530 000, no work required..... It's gonna take time here in the beach to get back to closer to normal....
thanks for the info, I did an evaluation not too long ago in crystal beach and couldn't find any comparable sales, because there were none. Lots of listings like you said. The carrying costs will slowly eat away at owners saving and they will have no choice but to cut prices to sell.
Crystal Beach is a hidden gem, and I don’t think the price is ever going to go down really but rather up
How you feeling about commercial real estate ? Looking like it's going down and never coming back
Commercial has more triggers than residential so will most likely be a sharp drop.
You have earned my respect with this video. Subscribed.
Awesome thanks
If Yuri Ivanenko was serious about building a life in Canada, he wouldn't have left all his assets in Ukraine. He didn't sell his house, his car. Probably wanted a job in sales for $100k+ & English is probably not his 1st language but they expect to get a job as soon as they land. He came here to be safe, avoid the war and be gone as soon as the war ends.
Good point.
John, what will happen if they cut the rate in next 6 months ? And the mass immigration increase
if they cut the rate in 6 months it means we're in trouble, unemployment is increasing and things are failing, it will be too late just like is was too late when they started hiking. Real estate prices will continue to drop and recession will be in full swing. Dropping rates will be a good signal for buyers to start getting ready, but still will need to wait another 6-12 months before jumping in IMO
Great question!
Do you think there is any chance the rates may stay as is or go up even?
I left Canada forever a year ago. Never looked back.
I hear a lot of this lately.
What are your thoughts on our current historically high rental rates? Will they go down significantly as well, according to these predictions?
I've seen some pull back in rental rates in my area already. I think when homes come down some more, we enter recession and the BoC starts dropping rates, rentals will have to come down to compete with ownership. Probably a year or two away though.
There are a ton of sales positions in any given city. Maybe the ukrainian refugee doesn't speak english? That can be a huge problem for an immigrant. I know how difficult it can be. I came here as french speaker in Ontario and it took me 5 years to learn english and being able to find a job in my field.
good point, did you come from Quebec of France? I want to learn French for obvious reasons, sometimes I listen to the politicians interviews in French to see how much I can understand.
@@jonflynn Never been in France or Québec. I came from a small french speaking country in Africa. Now fully bilingual but it was hard. You also can make it. French is a bit harder to learn but you can do it if you'r motivated.
Doesn't this all sort of depend on where the interest rates go? If they start dropping sooner than later and we have 500k new people coming in each year I feel like things will stabilize and eventually go up again.
If they drop them it's because we're in recession so will be interesting.
To those who don't believe the gravity of the situation... Do you think the Romans knew their Empire was years away from absolute collapse? What about it's nay sayers?
very true.
What about modifications regarding the ban on foreigners to buy real estate in Canada. ?.
I don't think it will make any difference since that ban was too little too late to begin with.
@@jonflynn what are the modifications ?
Thank you for the information. Here's a question, if we want to sell our property, when will be the good time?
Seasonally the best times are spring and fall, the last few years have actually been late winter/early spring and fall. Looking at the big picture, now is the best time.
Thank you for your response. Sorry I made you confused. What I wanted to know was when or which year will be the good time for us as one of the sellers.
Thanks Joe, for the informative and up-to-date analysis.
no problem
Appreciate your honest.I may also move to another country,
Thanks for the feedback
We must still be in a bull trap out here in Burnaby suburb of Vancouver. From what I'm seeing shortage of supply. Lots of people attending open houses. Some homes selling over asking. Maybe a 5% decrease in price for tear down building lots. 33 foot lots going for $1.3 - 1.5M. 50 and 60 foot lots still $1.5 to $1.9M. New spec builds $1.8 M for half duplex. SFD spec homes $3-4M. I don't how people have this money, but its obviously out there. Still lots of foreign money due to legislation being full of loopholes.
No it's not foreign money. It's extremely low inventory and pent up demand, some are still being fed FOMO. Once the job losses start happening and inventory rising you'l see a massive drop in sales and prices. Takes time, we're in the bull trap, return to normal phase, plus they've been kicking the can down the road with extended amortizations, etc.... I also live in B.C
There will be a lot of tears soon
It's been really great follow your content. DO you have any insights on the Ottawa region? I find it way harder to find this quality content around this area.
I gave a quick analysis in the last month or so but I don't have access to that board so data is limited. They're down around 15% from the peak
Hi Jon, Thank you very much👍
no problem, thanks for watching
Awesome observations & analysis.... again! So glad I found your channel.
Thanks for the comment.
Thanks for your work Jon! Any idea how the federal 2023 budget will affect the real estate market moving forward?
looks like 40B in handouts that might fuel inflation a bit but other than that nothing has changed.
@@jonflynn
I hear the new “budget” proposes new bailouts for mortgage borrowers/present home owners. How would this affect the market? It seems like we can continue to extend and pretend? Awesome work btw!
Thanks John for the info!
Any time!
You should see what's going on in Richmond Hill and York region right now people are snatching houses and ready to pay ridiculous amounts of money lines of people just to see the homes.
Same here in Durham
Richmond Hill and Markham are two of the most corrupt RE markets within the GTA. The level of money laundering that passes through them is astounding.
They live life in a subconscious manner, oblivious to what's happening and about to happen.
I just lost on my 2nd bid for a home yesterday. The market's gone bonkers. The house was listed the the right price considering it needed at least 100k in renos. We came in above asking and the selling agent said "the winning bid was way higher"
Edit: it went for 250k over, NO CONDITIONS, selling agent just posted
We have yet to find out but my assumption is it's over 100k. I said Jesus Christ either we went to the wrong house or I need to wake up
If this were Nov/Dec that wouldve gone just at listing or just under. I think this is major FOMO now, it's insane. I really hope they like it more than I did because it immediately needed new windows to begin with
Im not new to this. I remained patient at the peak of 2017 and bought my home under market value so this is ok, but boy, are some just itching to sign on the dotted line? There were 10+ registrants last night and I was the 9th offer
Keep up the good work Jon 👌
crazy, which city/area is this? Make sure you follow up to see what it sold for.
@@jonflynn Good advice .. and check that it actually closed. So many bulls*t artists these days.
@@jonflynn I edited my post - Oakville. 250k over listing and listing was more or less the market value, give or take 50k in its current condition
Theres hardly any inventory tbh. My assumption is they stayed on the sidelines and settled. Rewind this back just 3mos ago they wouldve gotten a nicer home without needing renos
Isn't "blind bidding" done and over with now with new rules? Or am I clueless? I thought we were supposed to see what all offers are now?
Demand is strong near the GTA, everywhere it might drop. Don't listen to those videos that say "Oh wait a year and the house will be 25% cheaper" or "Toronto Housing Crash Incoming". These titles just get views because there are more people on the sidelines hoping for a price drop lol. Been like that for the last 30 years and still no crash.
What about the province of Quebec, please?
Next weeks video
Many of the over extended will be going to the neighborhood bankruptcy trustee!
yep, will be a blood bath.
You can find work at any fast food joint in a heartbeat, it’s never been better, here.
you'll feel 20 years younger too when you're working with the students all day.
Why goverments last 20 years dıdnt build houses for low ıncome. There are lots of land
The last 10 years was the most important, they screwed up and were too busy hugging trees and other world leaders to care about us citizens.
How does Fibonacci Retracement affect RE price/predict it?
it's a mathematical tool used in many fields, you should google it, instead of listening to my basic definition.
Canadians would rather die than change their sentiment about real estate as it has afforded a means for people without any talent or ability to feel rich.
correct many would
Thanks for all your hard work Jon. Appreciate an honest voice from your industry. If you could I would love to hear your synopsis on Kingston the past year. Thanks!
Will check it out. Thanks for watching.
in Feb....predicted March would be a negative month...... and then at the end of March when the fact is being not really as expected....asking for a tune-out....
loop
from my memory I predicted it wouldn't last and March wouldn't be as big increases as Feb or would be short lived. It's already ended, first few days of April showing reduced prices again. Wanna make a bet on which way the market will go?
@@jonflynn I'm glad and respect you make a public prediction here. so let say by the end of 2023 vs the start of 2023, you think it's a drop right?
@@jonflynn actually from my memory you were saying similar thing as what saying now........................kind of like March already seeing a reduced price already... maybe you should listen back of what you said ... frankly.
so what are you getting at, am I a total fake or what? I can't help if people have lost their minds and all common sense. My predictions are far more accurate most of the time than the governments vaccine claims which they have never been called out on by the big media outlets.
either my first or second video I ever made I said I wasn't going to make predictions on this channel, that didn't last long.
What’s your take on the record level of immigration and it’s impact on real state. Also if you can comment on the recent update on foreign buyers regulation from the federal government. Thanks
Government rules never work, they're usually too late or backfire just like the foreign buyer ban is preventing some partially foreign owned developers from starting their projects. I feel bad for the immigrants coming to the land of opportunity and realizing how expensive housing is. Most will be priced out. The government needs to incentivize home ownership and building not try to regulate their way out of everything.
Question: Do the states surrounding the Mexican border benefit from increased real estate valuations due to the enormous amount of illegal (and illegal) immigration coming from the south? The answer is no. Why? Because it takes more than immigration to prop up valuations. It's all about access to credit.
Government has lifted some foreign buyer ban which is fuel for high price again in this spring .. what do you think @ Jon on this ?
They didn't lift the foreign buyer ban then lifted some of the restrictions that stopped developers from operating that had partial foreign ownership.
But .. seems like housing already going for high this week .. basically what’s listed for … or more ..seems like nothing is working to get back housing to reasonable price ..
@@petsworld7126 Bull trap. Speculative money that was sitting on the sidelines all year last year piling it at the same time. This is what is known as exit liquidity. All these buyers will likely be bagholders.
Thank you, Jon. Very insightful analysis
no problem
The stock market is the same. Now it is artificially inflated so people don't panic with the bank collapses.
yep.
Sorry I must have missed it, the first retracement chart you show is that for Ontario prices ?
yes
Three things will drive this. They are employment, availability, and stable and predictable interest rates. Without the first two, the third doesn't matter. It'll take a high paying, secure job to convince anyone to enter the market. After that there has to be something to buy at a suitable price point. It is only then that interest rates figure in. If I have a high paying job that I am confident is secure, and if there is a suitable home out there at a price point I can afford, and if the interest rate any any foressable rate increases can be mitigated, then it is time to buy. Kick out any one of those cornerstones, secure high paying employment, a suitable place at a suitable price point, or stable and predictable interest rates, and now is not the time to buy. Ok. so how many people out there are able to consider those three drivers and say, ya. I got this. No problem?
right now we have one of them. Thanks for the info and comment
Nice head and shoulder formation.
Right on
just want to ask how much more drop are we anticipating?i live in calgary and still cant afford it
Since Calgary is a major city and hasn't had the run up of places like GVA or GTA I would say it will be somewhat insulated from the rest but I'l still give it 20-25% from the peak for the low point. It's currently around 10% (maybe less, going by memory) so not even half way there.
Or, 40 and 50 mortgages will start being offered. Sellers have demonstrated so far that they won't sell for big discounts. And buyers simply don't have the ability.
What happens when the sellers don't have a choice?
@@jonflynn That remains to be seen of course. But in a fiat based economy, is it possible to keep the zombie economy alive, forever? I would have thought no, you can't. But after 2008 things kept chugging along. Thanks for making your videos. They're enlightening and it's great how genuine you are.
Charts never lies! Great stuff..
The overlay is indeed scary
just like every other speculative financial bubble now.
@@jonflynn The everything bubble.
Our drunken immigration policy is putting Canadians in an even worse position.
I agree, just another temporary attempt to artificially prop up the economy.
It works both ways. Bringing in more people into a dead economy means more unemployment. High immigration really only works well when the economy is on absolute fire.