Buy Signal Triggered As Market Action Starting To Favor The Bulls | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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- čas přidán 15. 06. 2024
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Stock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon.
But in which direction?
We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls.
We discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance, the new payroll data, the impact massive buyback programs from companies like Google and Apple are having on the markets, and the most common ways regular investors sabotage their success.
Lance also shares the latest trades his firm made this week.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
#federalreserve #inflation #jobs
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ANN BERRY
FROM THE FRONTLINES OF BUSINESS
Try to get her on the show, I see her on other shows like yours.
“Rich people acquire assets. The poor and middle class acquire liabilities that they think are assets.” - Robert Kiyosaki
Quoting that clown...
I totally agree. I put $250k into stocks with my advisor, and now I've made over $4 million in profits. I used the profits to buy properties, and they're bringing in great income. It just shows how important it is to invest in things that grow over time. It's like I'm living out the lessons right from the start of his book- Guide to investing
Despite the ups and downs in the stock market, you've managed to turn your investments into good profits. Could you share the name of your advisor? I have $300k saved up and ready to invest, but as a beginner, I don't know my way around the market.
She is well known as - Chasity George Charles. please do your own research.
I am on the look out for experts and after doing my research online will say she meets my requirements, Thank you for sharing with us. I already sent her a mail hoping she can make out time in her busy schedule to assist me.
The most significant lesson I gained from the stock market in 2023 is that uncertainty prevails, emphasizing the importance of humility. Adhering to a long-term strategy with a competitive edge is key
Certainty eludes everyone; thus, it's vital to establish your own methodology, handle risk, and adhere to your strategy unwaveringly. This commitment should endure challenges and successes, all while maintaining a commitment to ongoing learning and improvement.
Embracing uncertainty, I realized after five years that attempting to predict market outcomes through chart analysis was futile due to the unpredictable nature. My lack of a mentor led to six years of struggle. I transitioned to following the market's direction and adopting a straightforward, disciplined approach.
Who is the professional who is advising you, if you could perhaps tell us? As a novice investing in stocks without the correct direction of a professional, I have lost a lot of money.
I work with Camille Anne Hector. She has a large following and is easily found online. Investing with her has been a different ball game entirely so different from the stale methods of managers I’ve worked with in the past. last year was my best ever because I'm over 1m which I really never thought I could reach at the start of the year.
I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing
Thank you Adam and Lance. Have a great weekend.
Adam + Lance weekly review is a discussion i follow religiously. It is even more crucial when my thesis run coubters to Lance outlook. Its always good to be aware when you may be wrong.
Does Apple deserve a 29 PE ratio with year over year declining Revenue, declining net income and declining net cash flow? Is Apple the new IBM or Csco. PE of 18 vs 29 and this stock is $120 to $135 even with buyback. $7.50 eps * 18 = $135
"At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?" - Scott McNealy re Sun Microsystems during the dotcom bubble.
You wanna make money or you wanna be philosophically right?
Wall Street seems to think so.
Lance is all in on the FOMO trades
@@hansschotterradler3772retail investors will be the bagholders again.
Thank you Adam and Lance.
Thank you. I've learned so much from the two of you.
really great show today
Good discussion, gentlemen! Thanks!
Thank you very much...
Thank you both!!
Honestly I'm learning so much from you guys
I owe you my entire financial education
Yes but how much did we borrow and print to produce 1.6 gdp? The math just doesn’t work any longer. At some point it seems the ponzi will crumble. Probably not for quite some time but ……
It only doesn't crumble because the US abuses its privilege as the reserve currency.
Its like taking out a car loan to buy a new mailbox and then brag your house value went up. Not wrong, but at what horrific cost?
Melt up before the weinmar style finish.
Yes but the melt ups are often where there are the biggest gains
Thanks 👍
Thanks Guys exceptional content as always#
Another great show guys
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Can Lance not see the Federal spending at unsustainable levels is the only thing keeping the wheels from coming off.
Thank you.
Berkshire dropped 13% of AAPL. Let's see.
Yes. Goes back to what one is Adams guests was saying (was it Jesse?) that insiders are selling the market.
401(k) contributions and corporate buybacks work together to boost stock prices regardless of performance.
Thank you for adding that poll question - was just going to ask for the name of that book and author after hearing your comments on the author's insights.
expectalar interview.
thanks
Would love to hear Lances view on algos buying from each other in seemingly tight channel like in Q1.
Besides buyback this must also have impact on price levels as they are bying from each other in a kind of spiraling fashion, maintaining momentum?
Bingo. This isn't a stock market anymore. It's just algo manipulation tbh
Me thinketh thanks guys for your help, your podcast Adam is definitely., top of the tree.......for me!@!?😉😁
It's wonder to listen to both every week..Learned so much & more confidence in trading & investing.. Thanks Lance for showing your portfolio ... Market took the last grasp of air and dive down anytime next week..This time bad news is bad news...much love
Lance’s FOMO recommendations of the week- AAPL and META 🤦🏼♂️. This weekly show is more suitable to traders than investors
Adam, Lance, excellent broadcast. Always offering excellent material to chew upon! I love the simple visor opportunity to look over Lance' shoulder.
Adam you featured a guest a couple months ago that was very enthusiastic and helpful regarding closed end fund investing. I would love to see your team of weekly financial advisors provide feedback/ ideas on CEFs. Once again great show, solid analysis and great material to think upon!
Love Lance! Great episode.
The question is when will wages catch back up to the cost of things?
Seems to me we are on a three decade decline of wages to the cost of living.
@user-jl8yy5ir7s Who is getting all the productivity gains over the past 40 years?
the will never catch up you are screwed so sorry
@user-jl8yy5ir7s Started a little bit before that actually, but yes.
Maybe when the corruption throughout the system is cleaned out? So... Likely not in our lifetimes.
Thoughts on Emerging Markets and non-office space REIT’s? Is the bottom officially in with those?
It's the reason i listen to you and Canadian Prepper..... big words! Lol
Let’s talk about the “Jobs numbers” what the BLS publishes frankly is bullshit. Look at the revisions that no one really talks about. Most of the jobs are part time.
Now let’s talk about the bogus inflation numbers they keep on moving the goalposts. Let’s use the same 1980 criteria for inflation like shadow stats and the real inflation number is probably closer to 8%.
The GDP numbers are also B.S. the nominal GDP is going up but if you based the GDP using constant 1980 dollars what would GDP be? GDP is inflated because of price inflation
I agree the numbers are cooked. However, everyone still trades based on them knowing theyre cooked.
Interesting that Lance shared his portfolio here. It seems typical and will likely get crushed in any reversal since it's overwhelmingly weighted toward overpriced U.S. equities. Might want to suggest your clients hold more gold and silver, p&c insurance, and energy and industrials.
I suspect that is one portfolio of many. But agree about gold. I am building my position to get to around 20% ultimately.
Can’t remember who it was but he explained why the Birth/Death model is broken. You used to be able to spend/pay out up to $20,000 without having to report it on your taxes and now it is $600 so there is a bigger number of small businesses applying for EIN’s that didn’t do that before. There business is still the same - single entrepreneur, they aren’t hiring anyone new but the Birth/Death model is factoring it in as if they were startups and going to hire.
Let's go!.
We have a culture obsessed with how things appear and could care less how they function.
Couldn’t care less.
Great and important episode guys! Lance thought he'd shock me with the $37 Chiptle bowl, he didn't. He shocked me with the $17 bowl! I cut out most restaurant and all fast food eating back during lockdowns and never went back, mostly because I'm a pretty good and versatile cook, as confirmed by friends and family. As I watch this I'm making a pizza for breakfast during this rainy Nor Cal day. TJ's dough is easy to use, and if you know what you're doing you can make something better than many shops. So, I can make pizza for about $3-$8 for a large without much trouble. I'll eat it after a quick workout - squats, deads, rows and carries!
Is tj's dough a whole grain dough?
@@one4change4thebetter No, it's for real pizza (heh). I've experimented with whole grains in pizza dough using base doughs from everyone from America's Test Kitchen, to Batali, to Alton Brown/Good Eats to Kenji Lopez/Serious Eats, etc. You really can't make a whole grain pizza dough with anything more than about 20% - 30% WW flour and the rest regular bread flour or the Italian 00 flour. Type of flour, ambient humidity, hydration of the dough, overnight, chilled proofing all affect the qualities of the dough. It's a rare treat in which to indulge, save the whole grains for your daily.
@@nacetroy you are very thorough! I haven't had any pizza for years. At my age, 76, and health, junk food is just not worth it. I have made some improvements to my diet recently and nice subtle improvements in my health have resulted. Closest to pizza I eat is breakfast - food for life toast or toasted English muffin with low fat spaghetti sauce topped with sauerkraut or kimchi.
Yes. I have actually cooked for a long time but not only because of costs but quality and knowing where my food has come from. With factory farming and heavily pesticide laden crops - and potentially poor hygiene, I prefer to DIY!
@@Jalleur14325 yes preparing our own food is important but also growing our food, learning how to identify, harvest and prepare wild edibles and medicinals. The best success I have had so far is narrow leaf plantain for bee stings.
Berkshire Hathaway sits on almost $200 Billion in cash/short term treasuries, and cannot find anything of value to buy. Does that make anyone question the price level of equities?
Sure does!
Plaease, let Lance know I will email him personally when it is time to buy CVS again.
The BuyBacks would make the remaining shares more valuable. So in a sense BuyBacks do create value.
The MegaCorps always buyback the most at market tops. Ever wonder why?
Their buying allows insiders to sell off massively at the top without driving price down. It is a way to transfer money from the corporation into private hands.
@@wellnesspathforme6236 agreed but that's a problem with the incentive plan, but share BuyBacks if done correctly are good for the shareholders. That's why Berkshire won't buy their shares back when they get too high, but of course Exxon will buy their shares back at the top of the market because the managers get a higher a higher bonus because the incentive plan is based on the Share value.
But the balance sheet is actually shrinking, as Cash is reduced along with the equity side. So, less shares but also lower balance sheet.
@@tolouswe And a bleak looking future not worth growing into, no?
@@tolouswe They generate plenty of cash to refill the balance sheet though. 100 billion a year. And every share they buy back is a share they won't have to pay dividends on.
They won’t call it QE, they’ll use crypto slang and call it “air drop.”
Starting to favor the bulls, it has favored the bulls since 2008🤔
Well I think it's for courageous bulls
17:29 - McDonald's and Starbucks are absolutely overcharging.
Even hinting at going long stocks at these levels is highly irresponsible for anyone except day traders.
Lolz, took a small position in CVS after the drop.
Julian Barnes wrote that, like the light at that hour, a crepuscular man may be dim.
I literally cut my short positions Friday as prior i was expecting another leg down in this market correction. Friday's job numbers + Apple's share buyback announcement seemed to stomp the bears out for now.
Has there been any tax changes in company buy backs recently? Or is there anything coming up in the near future?
Did Adam say there was a video of him with Robert Chalini? If so anyone have a link to it? Thanks in advance if so.
czcams.com/video/KNMw7AwylKo/video.htmlsi=ww-KcNsz5W6YsonG
Lance is in the tank for Big Tree! lol
I need the number for this guy’s dealer. He’s smoking some good stuff.
March 3rd is my birthday!!!!
And my mum’s and my plumber 😂
the only way out IS A DEPRESSION 1929 TYPE. BUT WORLD WIDE
Thanks Lance for not calling us bad investors whilst running the DIY shop into nowhere 😂😂
Bulls have been in control for a long time already.
ther are no bulls or bear or even a market ther is lies and mauplutions
Currency debasement has driven up stocks since 1933. Will it continue forever? No one knows. In honest gold ounces, no increase in Dow since 1929, 18 ounces in 1929 and 2017 to 2024. Zero gain. Gold outperforms stocks the past 25 years by 100%.
Yes, we have low unemployment, but for jobs where wages have lagged for DECADES. So, there actually is a kind of stagnation going on for the lower/middle class. It's a bisected economy. Top is not experience stagflation
What does lance think about usdjpy pair? Did yen become risk off pair or is Lance expecting the Yen to start going back up after last week?
All restaurant chains should threaten to close down in Calif if $20 wage not repealed.......let the market decide. They will absolutely automate and cut staff in each outlet no matter what.
I just hit $100,000 net worth this last quarter from saving and i plan to invest in the stock market to see it grow in the next 3 years. What is the best way to navigate the stock market as a newbie?
Lance opened the door for a Adam type investment strategy. Would be great if RIA simple Visor had a Dividend type strategy similar to Steven Bavaria.
Adam, I appreciate that you bring up the "better off dead" anecdote about peoples portfolios, but isn't that a counter argument to using a high fee advisor? I love this info from Lance because I learn a ton, but he never mentions his fees or his performance, so I always wonder if net of fees, indexing would turn out better.
More ‘income’ analysts pls
Inflation is not 3% 😂
I’m talking about the change rate, not the change …
It doesn’t take a money manager to figure that out
This buyback conversation was over complicated, simple reason why share price goes up due to buy backs is it demonstrates companies think shares represent good value.
gt video lance n adam. i watch you sow every week...........................
the new Macdonald’s burger be called the “Mac’Bigger”
In honor of President Donald Trump, it might be called the "McBigly". And the Happy Meal will come with the Baron Burger a Trump bobble head. And the new Quarter Pounder could be called the "Melania Royale". The value member might have the "McTrump Jr".
Should name it the McFatty.
Lance is the best! It’s the highlight of the week.
The analogy of commercial real estate, to the contrived impossibility of social security and Medicare is nauseating!
Inflation gained slightly for the last 3 months. Right?
CVS here in KC is a disaster along with Walgreens. Hardly any employees ever and it always seems like a ghost town in there. And KC has a great economy and better than normal job market for that level of employee.
Yes. My corner CVS is dystopian.
Half empty shelves.
Stoned clerks.
Costco pharmacy always seems busy.
Agree with the store assessment. However, CVS has many subsidiaries like Aetna Health Insurance, Minute Clinic, Coventry Health Insurance, Caremark Pharmacy & NCS Healthcare among others.
Why does reducing shares outstanding not add any value? it's like saying issuing 10000x more shares to new investors doesn't hurt existing shareholders. imo share buybacks is just a more tax efficient way of declaring dividends
1.6% is strong GDP growth?
The government adds $1 trillion to the National Debt every 100 days.
You're saying 1.6% GDP growth is worth $1 trillion every 100 days?
What are you smoking, and do you have any more?
he is wallstreet the down care about the real economy as long as it dont hurt them
Lance feels like a contrarian that has to disagree because reasons
@@matsutendai how is he a contrarian ?
@@broersverband7586 host: “gdp bad” him: “no it’s not bad”
Continues to describe how it’s bad while saying it isn’t.
He was so keen to disagree he contradicts himself
Daniel Kahneman is also known for his work in behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
Died March 27, 2024.
Starbucks in Texas is $2.87. Tall
No offense to Lance. I like his technical analysis a lot, but it's naive IMO to think we have high GDP growth, low inflation, and low unemployment. He should know these numbers/data are not accurate. I mean jobs numbers are constantly revised down and manipulated as a result of people not being counted in the jobs market. GDP just came in at 1.6% and it's most likely headed lower; not to mention the GDP growth and jobs "strength" is mainly a result of government and military spending, which no offense is not real growth. It's just more debt and tax spending. And, let's be real inflation is MUCH higher than 3.5%. And, finally GDP "strength" is also being ruled by spending from people who already have wealth and able to take advantage of high interest on their wealth. in reality the economy is trash for most people. Look around. there is the "real" economy and the "fake" economy. People can't afford homes, have record debt, homelessness and despair.
He does know, he is not speaking about the economy...He is speaking about the dialogue that moves the stock market.
He literally said the real economy doesn't matter.Only the fake one does. He is classifying 1.6 percent relative to the average. No 1.6 isn't good but it's what we got because of the last twenty years. It doesn't matter what you think about that number only with the market thinks, and that he made perfectly clear.
Market doesn’t care… I have to keep reminding myself
Simple Visor/RIA…. Let’s Go!!!
WE ARE GOING HIGHER NEXT WEEK.
I thought the bounce that followed sharp drop in $spx would be corrective one, but let's be honest, rising yields and higher for longer were ever a concern, stocks kept going higher ignoring everything and now we get a hint of lower yields and we're back to euphoria, rate cuts are coming... Things don't look promising for the bears
after a stock buyback, remaining shareholders own a higher percentage of the company (and its earnings power) which theoretically increases the value of each remaining share
RIP Daniel Kahneman
D. Hunter calls for a possible 40% higher market and fast. Some people apparently don't care about reputations. They can afford it.
True, but I said this about him three years ago when he was calling for DJI 40K and S&P 5000. I thought he, with that call, was absolutely bonkers. Yet, here we are. I've come around to not dismissing him and his prediction of what's going to happen next and after the top. I just wish he would explain his reasoning rather than just give out numbers (that so far have been right on).
@@ronpatton8427 I just wish he was right about the miners.....................
I Follow,.. Tom Lee and Jeremy Seigel AND,.. I watch, the FED, CHARTS and Earnings, NOT,..ANY of, these, guys !
And I've BEEN,. "Killing It" for, the last, 3 YEARS in CEF's / ETF's with, Monthly Dividends and RE-investing those Div's on, the BETTER, "Dip's" for,. COMPOUNDING !
Trick IS,.. NOT to Listen to,.. the "Scardy Cats" on, youTube and NOT selling, your Stock & Bond CEF / ETF's on,.. WHIM'S !!!
I Do tend to Watch, Lance's Charts and My OWN and Do, AGREE with Lance that, Nobody really, "Knows", WHERE,.. the Market IS,.. going !
@@ronpatton8427 ok, but he now boldly calls for another 40% runup THIS summer. That is staggering.
Remember all the talk we had starting under Trump about planting billions of trees? That was a policy I was so behind after watching some of the forests I camp over the past 40 yrs die of due to beetle kill. Instead we have no problem importing millions of people to the country and causing an even worse housing shortage….one that will require us to destroy more habitat and trees to build eventually. I’m super against it. Some of us actually really do care about the environment and ecosystems
I hate Apple: All of the stuff about the child forced labour mining, the killing of forests where chimps live, the exploitation of teenagers in theit factories (committing suicide) in China, and then the massive tax avoidance they paid I think 0.01 corporation tax in Ireland. Add to that the scandal over the app store and my personal experience of finding them rip me off when sold me an ipod years ago, I refuse to own stock. All of that said probably my savings bank account is using my money to invest in the Mag 7, so probably its a bit pointless taking a stand, but still the Apple worship gets on my nerves!
I don't think the labor is forced. The mines are used for all batteries: including your laptop, Android phone, pacemaker, hearing aids, etc.
Sure, we all use stuff, and that has a damaging effect on the natural world. But Apple doesn't need to be racing to the bottom , and making products with planned obscalence.
I hate them too. I also hate that I buy their products. They are evil and gouge their customers.
What’s big now doesn’t mean it will always stay that way.
I’m a boomer and am giving away my age but it’s relevant.
IBM, General Electric, Kodak were all huge when I was younger. Not now.
@@10317 Apple has a zombie cult following which keeps buying their products. For this reason I think they'll be around for awhile.
Here it comes! The Fed will tweak the cpi numbers lower next month and off to the races! Until something breaks, which it will
If eggs are at $4 and go to $5 the inflation is still at 0% because they don’t count food or energy in the CPI. How is this guy in charge of anything?
he is wallstreet in his world you dont matter
If you followed him for the past few years... you would most likely listen to him.
I have two kids with the same birth day and different Moms. Year is different, But date is the same.
Ironic that Utilities are stimulated because of AI's Energy use while Bitcoin Miners are not mentioned in the segment.
Im definitely that description of the emo investor ...now wishes i left my pension to do its thing and grow. I pruned and repotted it too much lol
hi help me out, we bought new construction house in brend new subdivision new house What you thing about help all those peapole Design build those interior exterior house???need some ideas if will work?
Short sellers should join BDS… there’s lots of schools that will be trimming their portfolios to avoid a publicity disaster
GDP rates below the rate of inflation isn’t growth.
i.e. Matins
no inflation I imagine you have no idea of food prices.
You have no idea how inflation works. Prices are high but stable. They aren’t continuing to go up. If prices stay the same month over month inflation is 0, even if bread is $100 every month
Adam will be right with a lag, haha. I agree. Honestly though, you can no longer take a family out for a 'quick cheap meal.' Parents will be calling those the good ole days soon.
Yep -- dining out no longer offers enough value for the price. Until that changes, more will make their own meals (which is probably not a bad thing)
It's actually I think a good thing to return to home cooking
Catalyst for crash-It will be when the FEDS reverse repo market goes to 0 and liquidity at the short end of the yield curve dries up. The money in the reverse repo market is at the short end of the curve. The long end of the curve will rise quickly as will interest rates and the 2-10-30 yield curve will un-invert. The USA will not be able to borrow from the reverse repo market as it is empty now so the USA must issue 30 year treasury debt and for the auctions to not fail they must offer much higher interest rates on the long end. Feds will not be able to start QE to inject liquidity back into the reverse repo market because of inflation. Checkmate and a 80% market crash on a liquidity crunch. This will be in about 60 days from now. 450 billion left in the reverse repo market as of May 3 and dropping fast as the USA government borrows it quickly. Watch out !! Money will pour out of the stock market to lock in very high interest rates on the 10 year and 30 year treasury notes. The USA deficit and debt will sky rocket !! We will be in a cycle with tons of great collateral but no cash. The guy being interviewed here is very nice but needs a bit more education respectfully.
33rd, 4 May 2024
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Last week he said it wasn’t price gauging-I said he was crazy or dumb… now we see he was crazy and dumb for saying that. Inflation is absolutely price gauging…