Game Theory in Football Explained
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- čas přidán 8. 05. 2019
- Game Theory in football explained:
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Game theory is a branch of mathematics that also uses elements of sociology and economics to better understand rational decision making in competitive situations. It's used to understand a wide variety of topics, from business to war. The premise is that when you have more than one competitor in a situation, you have a game. And there are two types of games: finite and infinite.
Clubs who are successful are those who recognise the type of game
they are in and implement strategies befitting that game.
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#manchesterunited #watford #premierleague - Sport
Really appreciate this wonderful video... But it can be argued that
Arsène Wenger is someone who deserves mention with the likes of Sir Alex Ferguson and Johan Cruyff.
He is an outspoken advocate of sustainability and has successfully established such a model during his tenure at Arsenal.
He's all of the things mentioned about the infinite game. He didn't spend huge money to fix his squad, he looked at young talents rather than buying established players to win in the short term, and he kept Arsenal in the Champions League for 20 years rather than constantly pushing to win the league. He definitely deserves a mention
@@danielhayes4720 He was also manager during the move to the new stadium, which certainly took a financial toll on the club.
@@danielhayes4720 I agree, and although a rival, Pochettino seems to have gone down the same road: limited spending, move to new stadium, consistent appearances in champions league - although I doubt he will stay for 20 years.
As an Arsenal supporter Wenger had a great run and did fantastic things for the club. It was just time for a new voice for the players. Hopefully Emery seems to have the same approach as Wenger from what he did at Valencia. He did fail at PSG because he wasn't built for that kind of situation. I think Emery and Arsenal are a perfect fit. Of i would love if we could be Top 4 every year like we used to but since we don't have oil money like most clubs. We're stuck with a piece of shit owner in Kroenke who diverted major funds for the stadium in LA. So honestly being in top 6 with all our handicaps is a major achievement. Until we can hopefully get new ownership. Which won't happen most likely.
@@mynumberoneguy Sadly this didn't age well
I guess Watford isn't achieving that stability and consistency after all
Brian Wong and they have actually contradicted this strategy by hiring Pearson ....... which actually is working. Funny old game.
@@chrishardy3473 I wouldn't say they have contradicted it. They signed a manager who they felt would get the best out of the squad, without having to bring in new players, which has worked well. It's not about sticking with individual managers and players, it's about following the same system and philosophy which they have done
This explanation isn't really game-theoretic, because you aren't describing strategic (in the technical sense) decision making. You're comparing different parametric (i.e. non-strategic) decision-making based on their long-term effects as compared to their short-term effects. But you don't need game theory to do this, this is just standard (parametric) decision theory. This is made especially clear when you compare Fergie's decisions to what his opponents were making, or comparing Watford to Fulham, where the differences you highlight are to do with the parameters that are used for making their decisions, without reference to how their decisions have different outcomes depending on the decisions of their opponents. What you're doing here is comparing the individual decisions of various clubs/managers in terms of the long-term parameter of continued relevance at the top level of the game. That's not strategic, so not game-theoretic.
What makes something game-theoretic is the interaction between the decision-making of multiple agents. In the parametric case, you have a given decision reaching some specific outcome. It may be hard to determine what that outcome is, or what the factors are, but it's still that making such-and-such decision leads to so-and-so outcome (like Fergie deciding to cultivate Rooney and Ronaldo's talents leading to their development in the longer term). But in the strategic case this isn't what happens. In the strategic case, you have individual decisions that have different outcomes depending on what the individual decisions of the other agents are. So, if the fact that Fergie could develop Rooney or Ronaldo depended on Mourinho and Wenger's player development strategies as well, THAT would be game-theoretic. But of course it doesn't: it's not as if Fergie had to get Wenger to approve before he could start developing Rooney. So that decision isn't strategic, and thus isn't game-theoretic.
As such, when you talk about 'strategies', you're not using the term in the technical sense, because you don't describe them in a context where the different decisions by the different agents mean that the outcomes of their individual decisions are different. You just concentrate on the difference between finite and infinite games, but you've lost what makes them games in the technical sense, so instead you're just talking about different parameters for individual decisions, and not about games (in the technical sense) at all. You'd either need to concentrate on different decisions (the choice of how aggressively to play the transfer market is a good example here), or develop the examples in a way that highlight how the outcomes do differ depending on the decisions of other agents (such as the effect on the transfer market of the Man U player development strategy), or give up on describing these decisions in terms of game theory.
please TIFO read this. You get so many things wrong and brush over too many important points. Your videos would be so good if you did better research. Thank you Marinus
This, so much this.
Interesting. I should do some reading it seems.
Absolutely. An interesting video but not really anything to do with game theory at all.
hes talking in this vid about time preference and investing strategies
Love this channel. Keep up the great work, I have learned a lot. Thank you!
Think this also refers to how Wenger constantly kept Arsenal competitive for so long despite not spending as much as their rivals. It’s refreshing when a club sticks to their values and hires managers based on their values.
Does it always work though? Look at the state Arsenal are in now?
@@joecurran2811 well arsenal are doing pretty fine as of this moment.
@@wondersnigga78 Doing worse than they were in tears, gone by...including this year.
Your videos continue to satisfy my intellectual curiosity through the lens of football. Congrats on nearly reaching 500K! Well deserved indeed
But hey, that's just a theory...
*A FOOTY-SHOOTY THEORY*
no
Not that Game theory dumbass
Fulham fan here - I am so glad you have used our team as an ideal example here, and how the strive for short term gain at the club has resulted in us heading straight back down. The comparison could even be drawn with our team of not so long ago, having spent 14 consecutive years in the premier league to only see a complete reversal of the model explained in this video.
As always Tifo keep up the good work - best football channel on CZcams by a mile.
Joe Devine’s voice > Morgan Freeman’s voice
QPR are a classic example of how not to football. I never understood why droopy did what he did at the club. Also, Blackburn Rovers under the ownership of Venkey's were destined to go down from the get go.
But in case of Man City, everything sort of falls out if place coz they have potentially infinite money and influence and ha e performed well in the short term. They will be a force to reckon with for quite a while.
Everything said, Watford and Wolves are having an excellent season.
Nah I think Man city might have a genuine identity and plan which has been in place for sone time, ofcourse alot if money and that too.
Lol your so wrong about city, yeah they got oil money but theyre the definitiom of a long plan. They got in ex barcelona directors and staff over 12 years ago that helped bring messi to barca and they even tried to get pep
when you got unlimited money everything becomes the definition of long term plan. There is a price for everything and what city is doing is destroying competition for a long time to come.
yes.
All wrong lol thats the fun of football
Was just thinking about this last night. Great video, great channel! Best football analysis out there, really.
This channel is amazing.The man behind it seems to now more about football than all the guys on TV conbined.Very interesting videos with clear and astonishing analysis.Tifo football is getting better and better.
Really insightful video and has slightly adjusted the angle at which i look at football, so thanks for that
This is an absolutely fantastic video. You guys are doing great work in a grossly under discussed field. More videos on player training and field formation theory would be greatly appreciated. Cheers!
Yet another great video, favourite channel by far
Best video I've seen so far. Keep it up!
Close to 500k, love this channel and Tifo Basketball.
Another excellent video. Thank you Tifo.
You lot have outdone yourselves with this video. Very insightful. Kudos.
Well said bro keep up with the great content! Love videos like these.
this is one of Tifos most important videos. As an aspiring coach i found this very interesting as i always find the Tactical analysis interesting.
Surprise surprise, I'm doing Game Theory in my Economics major. How wonderful
Fantastic video - brilliantly explained, absolutely eye-opening and utterly fascinating. This is why Spurs are not spending money on new players but rather, on a new stadium that will bring in more money in the long-run and better training facilities that will benefit both the 1st XI and youth academy players that will become the future of the club.
this channel is great!
Love it!
This is amazing, thank you. Our channel has been learning a lot from your channel. Thank you
Love this! So helpful for me at university, keep up the good work tifo!
Very incitful analysis of modern footballing management...love the channel
I REALLY appreciate this video, since I’ll be an economist in july, this is so pleasant to watch. Thank you, TIFO.
Amazing video. Loved it. Congratulations
Your videos are great and entertaining👍🏼
Thank you for the details explanation. It’s always cool.
Now, apply this to *how Bielsa tactically shaves his pubes,* and you'll unravel last Tuesday's miracle at Anfield.
lmfaoooooo yo Tifo peep this
LMAO
😂
Now peep Oslo MGTOW's channel playlist and unravel the weird world of incel culture
@@ufoparty69 Nah, sensible men will see it for what it is. But thanks for the advertisement.
Great video, great content. Keep up your good work!
Dont stop..keep the videos coming .I love em🤩🤩🤩
This is absolute GOLD!
You can surely learn strategy and business management from the content you are sharing
I just finished my Game Theory class last semester, its pleasant to watch
Absolutely beautiful video.
Football and serious economics. Love it Tifo.
This video is absolutely brilliant. As a Watford Fan: The ones to watch are Domingos Quina and Joao Pedro who's joining us this summer!
Joao Pedro from Cagliari?
Excellent video.
You guys never disappoints
really interesting way at looking at football, keep it up
Brilliant video. After 5 years of politics at uni you’ve made game theory more interesting for me
Interesting video well done
Wonderful video.
Really interesting concept. Did you guys used sources to base this video on? I'd like to read more about it :)
If there is a doctorate in football, this channel deserves one.👍👍
How does Watford's fast rotation of managers fit in the infinite game?
could have picked a better example. Like Bournemouth or Burnley sticking with Dyche even after relegation.
The clubs built so nothig really changes when the manager leaves - they all have a similar style of play they sign the same kind of player no matter who is in charge and most of the coaches stay anyway
@@tansley09 I understand, but would you not consider a coach part of that?
Incognito the "infinite game" will require you to hire new managers eventually. they try to hire managers that fit the ethos of the club, and when it doesn't work out they stick to their values. it seems like they have finally struck the right balance with javi gracia, i don't see him leaving any time soon. i think tifo were trying to emphasise that watford continue to operate with their ideals when faced with a crisis (such as a manager being poached, or not adhering to the ambitions of the club), rather than making rash and reactionary decisions (like when fulham sacked raneiri)
@@Laurie12SlimShady thanks for your answer
He's back!!
GREAT VIDEO!
Another quality upload guys!
Great video. You could have mentioned some clubs that are financially forced to implement infinite strategies. For example, my club: FC Porto. A few years ago, heavy spending during Lopetegui's tenure left us with a lot of talent, but lack of cohesion. That season also left us with loads of financial problems. UEFA had to intervene, imposing sanctions. That left us with the need to keep the players we had and try not to spend too much on new ones, thus creating a cohesive family, more than just a team of players. We deservedly won the League last year, after 4 years without silverware and, this year, we already won the SuperCup, we lost the League Cup in the final, we are in the National Cup final, we reached the QF of the Champions League and we are still fighting for the League title. Who knew that the lack of money would prove beneficial for us?
A full analysis of Fulham's nightmare season, and how they might do next year might be a good one, especially now Scott Parker has been given the job permanently.
Beautiful video
Day before my game theory exam, technically Tifo helping me revise.
I can apply this theory on my work... thanks..
Please make a video about sheffield united and how they got promoted without spending heavily. Also about the problem between the two owners and who's likely to win the case.
now that's some next level sports journalism
l think you guys can do more than this. You have already prove it you can. For instance you could explain Ferguson's choise in young players vs big pressure perspective or young players vs short term big money gambling with a table to show his decisions with using "The Prisoner's Dilemma". It could be more about Game Theory. Because game theory is about making decisions and risk taking.
Big fan of the videos normally but a couple of things.: 1. Watford can hardly be said to buy players to fit the manager's system when they change their manager almost every year. If anything they do the exact opposite, they recruit players thinking of the club's long-term needs, not the manager's.
2. 'Reactionary' means politically conservative. The word you're looking for is 'reactive'.
I see you've read Soccernomics as well haha.
Emiliano Garcia isn't this originally a baseball thing?
@@danlikeshisdog I tell you what I would like to know, the governing dynamics behind a sport that is only popular in one country calling it's biggest annual competition the 'World Series'!!
@@davidlean1060 Lmao Baseball is not popular in just one country. It's very popular in the Dominican Repbulic, Cuba, Puerto Rico and Japan just to name a few.
@@bestwaffleg Hardy the world though.
@@davidlean1060 They have a shitty competition called the World Baseball Classic, similar style to the world cup, but no one watches it.
Nah fam, game theory in football is Brendan Rodgers writting your name on an envelope
Mansahej Singh ?
I love this channel, but I can't agree that Watford is a good example of this. Their history of sacking managers tells me the opposite and a lack of investment could be seen as a lack of ambition. Yes being a top 10 team for them is a big achievement, however it is also highly contested and can't be secured regularly with the way they go about their business.
I get there are some aspects which suite bu their are surely better examples. Burnley sticking with Dyche after relegation. Howe building Bournmouth (a very small club) into a sustainable premier league team.
Watford don't sack managers without good reason, that's a common misconception. Javi Gracia will not be out of a job any time soon. Their scouting network is actually one of the best in the prem and is a constant, while they don't often spend huge amounts of money (that would be unsustainable), they tend to find young talents for an astute price that fit the club's vision. I agree that the way both Bournemouth and Burnley operate as clubs is also commendable.
Spot on 👌🏾👍🏾🙌🏾✨
Reminds me of some Petyr Baelish said: Don’t fight in the North or the South. Fight every battle everywhere, always, in your mind. Everyone is your enemy, everyone is your friend. Every possible series of events is happening all at once.
I took a microeconomics course one time. Absolutely hated it except for one class: the game theory class. So interesting
This explains Tottenhman perfectly. A club building from behind making it to the CL final playing one game at a time
Spot on. A club that didn't even spend a dime last summer. Tottenham were able to find the right pieces and Pochettino is the a master of the game. Too bad We bottled big time by giving Solksjaer the job.
I'm super excited about watford and wolves in the upcoming seasons
Thank goodness the normal narrator is back
Was looking forward to seeing you missaply game theory to football as soon as I saw the title, and you didn't dissapoint. What you're explaining isn't game theory. Your videos are enjoyable to watch because they're well edited, you have a nice voice over and great animation, but please please get someone else in to support you on the maths/stats/theory side of things.
I think another example has to be Sean Dyche. When Burnley got promoted the first time, he didn't spend a lot on players, but on infrastructure for the team. Yes, they went right back down, but they did stay up for at least four seasons as of next year, and even had a stint in the Europa League.
Interesting that you cited Watford who were known to changing their manager frequently. Honestly I can’t recall if they fired their most recent manager at the start of season 2019/20.
But I recall Charlton Athletic under Alan Curbishley in the early noughties. Brought stability and consistent top half finishes, even as high as sixth. Then I believe the board sacked him so as to go “in another direction”
They key here are clubs knowing their identity and consolidating it. The trick is knowing when and how to take the next step.
Football and clubs evolve, with previous also rans looking like kings. The best example were the big five who started the Premier League. Of these, one consistently did well, one is now beginning to look like a superpower again, one had its day in the sun, but later became a shadow of its former self and two have fought relegation battles winning an FA cup over twenty years ago (albeit one of these has made great strides to evolve back to former glories). But there was no Man City or Chelsea amongst this group who evolved and rapidly changed their identity
Possibly worth a mention of those owners who made decisions based on their values, like, say the Oystons at Blackpool and their ilk. In their own way they also recognised the infinite nature of football and took out what they could for themselves while they could, to the vast detriment of their team.
This vid is why Jurgen Klopp is gonna be a legend if he stays at Liverpool long term.
He's already a legend. TWO consecutive Champions League Finals, and turning LFC into a scary EPL powerhouse.
@@oslonorway547 Not to underestimate what Klopp did, but Liverpool WERE a scary EPL powerhouse before. They were just declining and Klopp came and made them remember who they were and what they can achieve. In any case, Klopp is a great manager and how steadily he improved the quality of football at Merseyside is incredible. Back-to-back CL finals and a potential 97 point season with only 1 loss? Nobody would have guessed that 2 years ago.
Jurgen Klopp turn Liverpool into Milan in 2000's
is there any tutorials of how to make similar vids to this beautiful vid??
I see Poch going the same way with Tottenham. Consistently finished top 4 the past 4 seasons - something that was unimaginable just a few years ago. And now, after spending 0 on transfers, we are in the Champs League final and finished top 4 yet again.
Amazing video and great points!
I never understood this [Reactionary] approach where clubs want to just spend huge money. Money doesn't gets you trophies. That's just a freaking fact! i'm glad there is enough example in this video to learn from. Money is not going to do anything, a right coach with the right management and principles can help a lot besides the right investment.
PSG is one example. They are killing themselves with money yet no UCL, same for Man City [Although City turned out to be a lot better than PSG due Pep's good management]. But yet, they haven't got enough in compare of the way they have spent. And we have Fulham who just went down too after all that investment. Or you can have best players like Ronaldo and Messi, but it doesn't always help you. Big names aren't the team. Look where are Spurs and Ajax this season! or as this video mentioned, where is Watford or look at Atalanta in Serie A . .. A team must looks like a team with values and principles of a team. Big names and huge money with impatience not going to guarantee anything. Only the right values, management and investment as well as patience can.
Bielsa Theory next video pls
good job.
That part about football from a holistic perspective was funny but very true. The only point I have to make is that about fergeson developing talent rather that buying- I mean if that talent is arguably the best player who’s ever lived it doesn’t really seem like a difficult decision, you know?
Vishnu anandraj man yojr work is great
I think this is related to the team management structure. Cyclical elected presidents tend to make heavy investments in developed players while centralized clubs go for long term projects like the Red Bull teams.
The Fergusson but is interesting. In his last season he basically did take the short term approach. Broke the bank to bring in van persie and then went on the win the league. But he knew he would leave at the end of the season.
Someone should show this to Ed Woodward.😤😤
This is why in FM I always buy the young pacey strikers from South America. Always developing for the future.
I like the overall concept - not sure about the Watford example.
This feels like being back in college, but more fun
This is Scaloni 'sapproach with Argentina. Maintaining play style even if the results arent exceptionally great
And argentina is winning world Cup 😚
Can you do poch’s tactics vs Ajax?
But how does Marcelo Bielsa fit into this?
Pochettino: brings spurs to a European final for the first time since 1984
Tifo: MATE EVER HEARD OF BIELSA??
I'm not too sure about the rules with FFP, so I could be completely wrong here, but aren't championship sides extremely limited in how much they can spend on transfers? I know that it can spend more in the season (or 2) following relegation, but might it make sense to spend big on players following promotion to stockpile your assets and make it easier to maintain talent levels if you did get relegated after only one season?
Chelsea seem to give no regard to sustainability and neither do Real, my question is how does this apply to them since in as far as Chelsea they have been able to lift major trophies with an unsustainable model, Real maybe less so since Zidane is one of their own but still how would you explain Chelsea?
We’ve taken steps to a more sustainable route
Thanks Vishnu
Surprised to see no mention of pochettino!
Not sure if possible but a video about streetwise-ness in football?
Joe Platt what do you mean ? Like players that grow up playing in the streets or what?
@@eduardomatt088 Not entirely but like how certain players have a way about them. It's hard to explain
Jurgen Klopp is the best example. He turned a near mid table side into one of the best in the world. It's taken him a long time, but the board have supported him and it has been a steady progress to the top. You could say that he even saved the club, because we've seen it happen in English football that a team with a big history eventually collapses. Example: Leeds, Aston Villa, and Newcastle(who were like the Tottenham of the 90s and early 2000's )
Brilliant
Real Madrid is a great example of this. A few years back, they never stop wasting tons on money in the transfer market and changing their manager every season, never going further than the fist rounds of the champions, their goal. Then, it changed, it created a stable team, with no big transfers every summer, and they won 4 out of the last 5 champions.
Cool
But when’s that new Bielsa video out?
only if he finally get promotion
I think so...