Is the Calgary Real Estate Market FINALLY Slowing Down?
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- čas přidán 7. 06. 2024
- I speak with Adam Fyfe a local real estate expert from EXP Realty in Calgary Alberta to find out exactly what's happening on the ground out there and if there's any signs of it slowing down. It looks like the 2024 spring market may be ending but Alberta in general seems to be the place to be these days. #daniellesmith #calgaryrealestate #realestateinvesting #investing #realestatemarket #canadianhousingmarket #interestrates #bankofcanada
Links/references:
calgary.citynews.ca/2024/05/1...
www.creb.com/News/Media_Relea...
I worked in Alberta through two separate massive economic busts, in the lead up it's been the exact same vibe as now with everyone saying the market will never ever go down ever again. Identical sentiment word for word, it's really amusing to see this yet again. I hope people aren't pissing away their gains this time, oh who are we kidding of course they are.
I knew a few that owned 3 unbuilt homes at the time of the crash.
Ended in bankruptcy and unemployment.
Calgary always hits harder.
@thomash1894. No doubt! The amount of irresponsibility and lack of accountability out there seems endless.
@@mr2_mike Oh yea I saw lots of the sort of thing, I ran a CPA firm servicing small businesses so I saw the inner workings. Lots of clients loosing everything they owned, many divorces, a few people even outright crying in my office. It's quite sad but during the good times I'd always warn them to save for a rainy day, they rarely listen though.
Unemployment rate in Calgary just hit 8%. Not exactly a bullish economy
I keep saying exactly the same to everyone. It is funny how these ontarians and british columbians come and have no ideia this is a cyclical market and they are buying peak
Plot twist, Calgary ran out of water….
Mother nature says time to get the hell out of town
Brown water line is not exactly Mother Nature 😂
@@Adamcfyfe the aquifer is low and Alberta has already warned it's reaching disastrous levels.
So indeed mother nature is saying it.
😂😂😂😂 ikr
Listening to Adam, has me feeling he's an RE agent that will create FOMO talk with his clients. But that's just my opinion, I might be wrong.
Don't listen to real estate agents in Calgary. They know a big downturn is right around the corner so they are trying to sell as much as possible.
Bang on! Sure sounds like a FOMO creator.
He sees the writing on the wall and needs to sell as many houses as possible before the market tanks
LOL. Nah, not me. Love the comment but you have no idea how many deals I’ve advised my clients out of because my clients who refer me business because of my no bullshit advise is what has found me success..
Since May 1 Active listing are up 35% and rental inventory has doubled in the last 12months
That's good if true. Things were getting a bit too crazy. Market always finds equilibrium. The cure to high prices is indeed high prices.
Great show,
I just sold my condo here in Calgary and heading out of Calgary.
Best of luck to everyone in this overheated market.
Heading back to Ontario.
Calgary was great, but i think in few years thing are going to get worse here.
Best luck to all
Gets worse in what way more expensive housing or way less expensive?
Congrats on the Sale. Your personally decision to sell and move away is the type of scenario that makes the most sense in an overheated market.
Wish you all the best 🤙🏻
Lol best of luck in the Ontario 💩 hole. We won’t miss you
Too funny. You sold into an increasing market to go to a bubble?
Prices will continue to run for 3 more years at least
@@digger9970
Yea pretty funny.
It's a bubble everywhere, except watch where prices are going down and it's a buyer market, not a sellers market.
Three years, hmmm what about a year when the economy goes for a bit of a downturn.
Time will tell, best of luck.
I personally think its kinda funny that the NIMBY dug in so deep to prevent any type of Apt. buildings to meet demand are now going to live inside "horizontal apartment buildings".
Yeah - the city needs more density. Virtually all rezonings were approved anyway, even though all rezonings were always opposed by the community leagues. It’s very left wing to opposed rezonings, it’s my land, I should be allowed to develop it how I choose.
If in Calgary unemployment is going up, is there still people coming to Calgary?
At 700k - 1M price for a midsize home and 5k+ property taxes, personaly, I would pick a different place to retire.
Try Vancouver 😂😂
Not only you, everyone would.. buying at current price level in Calgary must be completely out of mind … lots of different places with more upside for your investment and better lifestyle. Iff calgary reachs to the level of 700k - 1M it will become a bubble which will burst and screw with so many families
@@marcuslatansa4202 100% true. Unfortunately, realtors don't care.
@@marcuslatansa4202 where
@@marcuslatansa4202 You said if Calgary reaches 700K-1 Million, we are at 650K-900 K. It's not that far.
Rewarding Bad behaviour with lowering interest rates
@jimmyhat3438 Backward world we're in now. unfortunately.
Calgary realtor will never say the market is slowing down. However even Vancouver and Toronto are going through a slow market, how long before Calgary market sees the trend.
100%. The inventory have been rising steadily the last few weeks and homes are taking a little bit longer to sell. I give it another 3-4 months before the rats start jumping off the boat.
lol. If the market is slowing down. I’d call that out. But the market is not slowing down so…. Why would I say anything of such nature.
I think Calgary has atleast one more year of speculative growth
Well you better stick to your statement we will see you in 6 months😂
Love listening to Adam! Been a subscriber of his channel for the last couple of years now. Best wishes!
Rates wont make a dent
Nah, we on the up & up
if the rate is coming down, wouldn't people wait for the lower rate before buying? Just thinking out loud.
Yea, I would agree with that. Many people who are being coached through the process by a mortgage broker would have been suggested to wait and see. Obviously if the right home comes on the market you jump on it but overall people would be curious if they can snag a lower interest rate
The weather in Calgary. It’s June 8 and I’m still waiting for spring or summer. Mind you, I lived in Mexico for 20 years and moved back six years ago, after getting remarried. He’s right. Winters can be cold, but because it’s not as humid as in southern Ontario (where I’m from), it doesn’t seem as “cold” at minus 20 as it would in Ontario (or coastal B.C.). But we escape every winter (to Mexico) so that’s how we deal with it. And prices are nuts in Calgary, like they are in much of the rest of the country. We sold our place and now rent (here and in Calgary). I’m fine with that.
The only thing worse then landlords and speculators are the politicians who created this whole situation.
Actually I’d say what’s is worse is all the adult children living in their mom’s basement, working part time that are complaining about the housing market.
@@Mike-sl7zy Bad faith. Why do you think adult's are living in their parent's basement and stuck working part time ?
You forgot the realtors
@swirlalgod. Yes but those who bought into it, have to take accountability for being a big part of the problem and falling for it.
@@izzy2116 absolutely correct. If people aren't so stupid, all this could have been easily avoided and prices wouldn't have skyrocketed in 2020 and 2021.
Hi Jon, awesome content. Love your channel. I'm in the Yukon and it's insane here. Prices are still going up. Lack of housing. Trying to enter the market as a first time home buyer but it's hard. We're in our own bubble with lots of gouvernement money paying really well everyone (first employer here). I wonder if you could help me figure this bubble out. I'm negociating the house I'm staying in with my landlord. They might be willing to sell. Old house from the 70's in prime location. Probably 700K or more! 5bdr/double garage and large lot in Whitehorse. Hoping to make some income renting out the main floor. Any advice welcome. Again thank you for your content
Agree ..thank god !
I am in Kingston , a lot of international families planning to leave 🇨🇦
I say good , don't let the door hit your backside in the way out 😂
You voted liberal 3x, didn't you
@@donm2067 LOL!
I feel like everyone wants to leave who doesn't own a house they bought 10+ years ago. Canada risks losing all the workers and being nothing but retirees.
@@quixomega this is true, I bought in 2020 before the big leg up and I want to leave
lol I’m Canadian and I want to get the hell outta here
Bust, they aint got water lol
Excellent chat. Two good Canadians. 👌🏼
Is it still alright to buy a house for living though. How much are housing prices gonna dip
The housing crisis can be solved in ONE move.
Get the 76% of women from leaving their marriages or long term relationships.
If the family unit stuck together, there would be a couple million homes available.
As is, every family unit broken (60%) requires 2 houses.
Interesting point.
Oh ya, sure, the .25 rate cut is going to convince me to jump head first into a house I can’t really afford…sure buddy.
Yeah the agents are really pushing that rate cut narrative. Anything to sell a house.
Ha ha, true. Some of these realtors live in alternative realities.
If you were actively wanting to buy. And ready to pull the trigger, you too might wait to see what happens with rates and then make a decision.
@@Adamcfyfe I’m actively looking. Over $100,000 in savings dedicated to a downpayment (plus whatever I make on my current house), my finger has been on the trigger for a while. I’m not impressed by rate cuts that will only be reversed or decimated by inflation. I’m waiting for price drops.
I seen a news clip out of India and the headline read “The Great White Migration to Alberta” they had a fair bit of substantiating data 🧐
Not surprised.
"White flight" is becoming a term I hear more and more often.
Saw
Hyperlink, please…?
22:15 - "there was just so much marketing behind the idea of affordable homes, and when you look into it, I mean, it's just so 'broken' "
... yeah man totally get that. They're always behind the curve on this idea of 'affordable homes'. Maybe behind the curve now a good 20-30 years now
Tell me why, before you have something good to say about the Alberta Government, you feel the need to preface it with " I know this very controversial". Because our provincial government doesn't happen to be in the Trudeau camp? Why apologize when you feel the provincial government is doing some good things? Believe me the Calgary mayor is pushing the re-zoning that will ruin property values. Yes the councilors were all paid off. Do you want your neighborhood ruined?
Because when you deal with the general public knowadays you have to tip toe around comments and passion in regards to government.
I personally like smith and our government we are doing quite well, but I think you can agree even from this comment alone people will get upset and cancel you
@@Adamcfyfe These days yes. There was a time when it wasn't like that
Calgary now has 2nd-highest unemployment rate in Canada.
Great video my man thank you so much for having me on the channel. It was a really good chat.
My son so I may be a little biased but I do enjoy his videos and content . I live in NL so real estate probably a little different out here .
John. Your previous episode said that there would be absolutely no interest rate cut in June. Care to comment?
I can respond for him, cut-rate now is the worst decision the Bank oC could make, but this is this country, nothing more than real estate speculation, so this country is simply fucked and it is going on until it crushes against a wall.
Isn't it obvious with Trudeau's speech the previous week that Maclin was told to cut even though the statistics don't support it.
Or am I the only one not living in the matrix.
They only cute a tiny little bit for people to shut the f... up about cutting. Either that, or they are completly stupid.
I'm also going to say- yes " affordable housing" is needed I agree. However, homes needed are for new immigrants, which is all the federal government and the Calgary mayor care about. Those new immigrants will not be paying their own rent or paying city/ provincial/ federal taxes. That burden is on the homeowners who will have their neighborhoods which they pay taxes for ruined.
exactly
Agreed
Another thing that stresses the mill rate every year.
If real estate in Canada not stebelizing the who country's economic will collapse for ever
No Miracle has happened yet. The only reason is inter provincial migration. Lets see what Calgary has to offer in nearby future for new buyers. As soon as people realize that this was all a race against FOMO for calgary market. Jon thanks for your unbiased opinions but the guest seems to be leaned towards more sort of creating another hype like post pandemic. Same dialogues were paraphrased initially.
The assertion that our cycles are based on the weather, is wrong. The underlying cause of annual cycles, is not related to weather.
Calgary will slow dramatically under the same entrenching deleveraging fundamentals in the GTA/GVA as the Mortgage renewal wave accelerates thru 2026.
Yeah buddyyy.... What about home prices, continue to climb in Calgary?
Or drop massively if oil prices keep weakening.
@@stevenschuster
Static at best....
I believe it may be necessary to understand the real problem, that being the 'store' of inflation contained within the Canadian Big Bank asset chattels/Mortgage Loan Portfolios ?
Calgary has benefitted greatly ~12 months from investor equity transfers out of the GVA/GTA markets.... that will not continue.
In my view, inflation will become resurgent next 12-24 months into subdued R.E. activity/lower price discovery.
I hope so, I don’t want us to be as expensive at Ontario and Vancouver . I like affordability and how it helps the average person
Nope
A quarter point makes very little difference to mortgage rates (variable only as bonds determined fixed rates). This is FOMO.
You have no idea what you’re talking about. You clearly don’t have a mortgage 😂😂😂
Edmonton is going through the same rezoning issues. Strings on the federal seed monies.
As we string together years and years of the younger generation not being able to enter the housing market it will eventually devalue drastically.
The housing market counts on first time buyers entering in their 20s or 30s. You buy a condo, then move up 2 or 3 times.
This being said, im not surprised the condo market is the first to suffer. It will eventually move its way through all classes.
Look at what happened in Japan.
prices have shot up drastically in alberta just in the past year alone. its like a mini bubble there lol
UCP needs to declare a moratorium on the blanket rezoning until it can be studied further
I’ve been telling the clowns out there for 2 years that Alberta RE would fold. They say “Alberta is different”. Here we go!
@@QuestRader They aren't really investors, they are speculators.
@DTrent-uy1wl They say whatever it takes to get the ones that can't think for themselves to believe their narrative. Unfortunately it works on so many and here we are in this big mess.
@@izzy2116 and the banks just keep loaning mortgages to anybody with a pulse.
Alberta is genuinely different, housing prices rely highly on the price of oil because if oil goes down people lose their jobs. If the oil price falls too much housing prices fall off a cliff.
@@quixomegabingo. Calgary busts hit harder than most.
Unemployment already high but if oil drops, look out. Auto industry layoffs got nothing on O&G layoffs.
Hard to believe Calgary will ever bust. Still, too many people are coming from other provinces. Lots of investors and speculators are grabbing listings as well.
Investors will dump when they find out there money isn’t growing
@@Yelllowchild7 It's a combo. As the other realtor explained, you have inter-province migration from BC and ON. The real question would be, would you pay 1 million for a house in Calgary vs. 1.3 million in Ontario?
Unless the energy sector busts (unlikely) and we run into recession. I don't see Calgary going down.
WTF are these people going to do for a living? How many jobs do you think there are for all the newcomers? I know many people struggling to find work. Get out of your basement and talk to people once in a while (other than your clique). You are delusional if you think it will not go bust...
@@alexrubin5955 It will take some international event or really hard recession for prices to fall and investors/speculators to run away. You do not understand that lower-than-national prices are attracting various kinds of people for various reasons. Supply Demand principle.
@@faisal-ca oil will bust, we too many regulations in Canada, once opec removes production cuts.
Calgary is overpriced. My partner and I are leaving for the states and most of our friends are leaving this year or next as ON and BC investors are ruining Calgary by driving prices up. Calgary is not worth the price with high income tax, insurance rates, food, electricity, healthcare costs etc
yes, Calgary is way overpriced right now. At these prices, you are better off in places like Hamilton, Burlington, etc. Still close to the GTA with many jobs and great weather and lots of things to do.
@@alexrubin5955does anybody look at the actual figures? Fuck sakes. Dumb shits all around. Cala]gary still super cheap vs BC ON
@@alexrubin5955no it isnt
If you or your friends are planning on selling a 2 story home with an attached garage in the South, I’m interested 😅
sincerely, first time home buyer fighting for my life in this crazy seller’s market
@@Yourpointsbff Don't fall for the FOMO. I'm looking too but the next 3-4 months are going to be crazy with realtors trying to pump the market on the rate cuts.
As a born and raised Albertan who's old enough to know what Socialist Governments, (Trudeau, Chretien, Notley, Baby Castro most notably), have done to the province over the years...and factoring in the immigration policies padding the Socialist vote...I would NEVER invest in Alberta. Go where you're treated best and do not take unnecessary risk. Alberta is destined for economic manipulation which is simply too risky for my taste. Wishing them the best but sure hope the smart ones are diversifying and making their way out.
This Calgary realtor comes off as a scammer imho. Unconditional offer? Really? FOMO BS. Always protect your investment and fire any employee you get such advice from.
46 out of the last 50yrs has been conservative government in Alberta!!! Now Alberta is running out of water and electrical power!!!! Play the blame game, but your Conservative government has sold you out!!!😮😮
Bingo! He's just trying to cash in on the craze. Jumping on the FOMO bandwagon! LOL
Quitter
Bye bye, off you go…
Would like to see the stats on how immigrants are effecting this boom? I know its part of the problem but how many of them could really afford/qualify for the mortgage in the first place? I would like to get a take on who is being exploited here considering the whole pupulation of canada! I firmly believe that its just pure politics and pointing a finger on immigration is just insane.
Hey Jon - great content as always. Not sure if it was on purpose or not, but great job for letting your guest reveal who he really is, a RE agent who is pushing FOMO, a NIMBY and a poor soul who thinks the affordable housing is for immigrants being subsidized by locals(From one of his comments on this video). Not sure if he walked the streets of Calgary, but doesn't look like the people who need affordable housing are immigrants.
Calgary situation is interesting at least
.
One of the highest unemployment rates in Canada
Highest household debt.
High average salary rate, but very important is that is pushed up by the oil and gas sector, other sectors are on average with the rest of the country or way lower in other sectors.
Finally the whole economy is dependent on a highly volatile commodity controled by OPEC+.
Also, weather hmmmm a bit of confusion in here.
I lived in Ontario 59 years,
Weather in Calgary
5 months of summer, 7 months of winter.
Really on two seasons.
Also you drive on sould ice roads for 3 months,
Also hmmmm, a week of minus 35 and worse.
Hmmmmm not even close to southern Ontario.
Please check your specs on weather, hudge difference .
I cant believe you said similar.
Oh yea, no salt on roads here, the use pea stone.
It great for cracking your windshield.
You replace one every year.
50 % of all cars you see here have cracked windshields.
Weather not even close.
Personally, my opinion. Living in Ontario until I was 22 then moving to Alberta over 10 years ago, I would, again personally, prefer Alberta weather.
Your points are valid. No argument, you’re right I can’t say “similar” but I’d prefer a Calgary winter over a Toronto one
Moved from Toronto a couple of years ago. Beautiful sunny days in Calgary almost every day compared to heavy overcast gloom in Toronto from November to May. Damp winds of lake Ontario in winter are worse than the coldest weather in Calgary.
More sellers than buyers = lower prices and the reverse is true. Let's see if buyers come out of the woodwork and keep real estate prices high.
Im a buyer of this said real easte, right now Im looking over sea.
Lethbridge was on fire. I was in multiple bidding wars in may/June
All the buyers will be sorry
@@Lpmeff I think that's their plan, for everyone that falls for it to lose it all eventually
As long as banks and bankers are in control. All people will be in debt and continue to be subservient to them and their designs.
I believe we need more co-op housing in Canada…… idea of affordable renting being better versus buying needs to emerge. These housing prices across Canada are not for working class that doesn’t vow to slavery for the bank.
Like chicken coop size housing?
@@izgoy-club haha! that seems to be the future if people kept coming in such massive numbers into the country…. Btw it’s already happening in Brampton where I believe students rent beds to sleep
Actually Montreal real estate has always been affordable until Covid because incomes are generally lower in Quebec than further west and Quebecers never got the mentality of speculating and getting into loads of debt until recently. The zero interest rates have really broken what used to be a fairly balanced real estate market with pretty steady home prices and rents.
This guy is one of the most biased Calgary realtors.
Yes, you're like the 10th person to make this observation in this just released video!
Next up Justin Havre or Len T. Wong? 😂
How so?..
Dont pay more for houses that claim to have golf courses... cuz in the near future they will rezone those and no more golf course. Harvest hills golf course is a very good example. Parts of hamptons golf course are already rezone and houses fully built lol. Eventually all of it will be rezoned.
Jon, I hope you do some vetting of your own before bringing on guests. I have been following your channel for almost 2 years now because I respect the fact that you are unbiased, i.e., neither in favor of buyers or sellers. Rather, you back your opinions with data.
I have no problems listening to realtors that talk in favour of sellers, as long as they can back it up with data (not just past data - remember, historical performance is not a guarantee of future performance) and economic fundamentals supporting their thesis.
If you are going to bring on mere real estate shills who spout the same garbage that most other realtors do, that's probably not going to cut it for most of your subscribers. That's my humble opinion.
Only watched because I'm out West but yes, these conversations are fodder that can be found everywhere.
Please bring him back on in 5 years. Probably not even an agent at that point.
Curious to know what specifically you felt was garbage?
@@AdamcfyfeNo knock on either of you. Just Jon usually does more analysis and I can get a realtor selling into a hot market anywhere.
Not "be cautious".
Its like someone flipped a switch here in the GTA, activity is shot up big time
Lol, right pumper! If that is actully happening, then there are still a lot of people making stupid moves.
We're going to the moon 😂
I'm not a pumper it's just an unfortunate reality, but sure go off.
@@hc8129 You're reply says a lot.
Nice try, realtor shill. GTFOH
Unconditional offer is moronic
Alberta unemployment was 7.2% but Calgary is the one pulling that average up with 8.1% as of statcan May data.
I respectfully disagree with your takes on the re-zoning, but that argument has already been had and legislation passed. We can see how it plays out as you said.
My hunch is that if a significant portion of our buyer demand is from Ontario and BC, why would that continue if those markets correct?
Thanks for the vid and commentary regardless, I watch both of your channels and while we can disagree on the interpretation of the data, I do greatly appreciate that you are both presenting data.
Yeah, this realtor seems to be creating FOMO. Unemployment is through the roof here but this Alberta realtor seems to have no clue about the jobs market or Alberta economy. Immigration can only hold up the house of cards so much and for so long.
@@alexrubin5955thru the roof lol 🤡
Calgary needs more homes.
Age changes feel for winter .. outdoorsy gal that still rides my horses at 65 . Chose to make Kingston home base ...short winter at this age beats the snow and month of the year of Ab lol
Another great video with another great guest.
The rezoning is a near-criminal wealth redistribution.
Calgary real estate is a joke. No one smart is buying
Yeah all the smart people bought in Toronto.They are trying to close on precons that are down 30%🤣
Perfect, I totally agree. You must be out of mind to buy the peak in Alberta
100%. You gotta be really dumb to buy in Calgary at these prices. It's a city with probably 30% or fewer jobs than GTA.
@@alexrubin5955 yup 2nd highest unemployment in the country but let's keep bidding up these house prices! Dummies
If people love, find work and want to settle for years. You buy. Investors buying in Calgary right now, a bit sketchy. I personally don’t take on investors right now, haven’t for months, why would I advise someone to invest into a market I’m not 100% confident in.
It’s funny to see how many people simply don’t trust realtors
Condo fees are disgusting! I couldnt agree more.
How else do you insure and maintain a strata property? Fees are accounted for in the budget, no one is profiting....
Avg SFH in CGY = $822K vs TO $2mm or VAN $1.9mm. Long ways to go for YYC before a bubble. Ppl who think bubble are nutty.
He is lying, realtors would not even write the offer without removing conditions. I stopped looking for a property after fall of 2022 when I realized prices are getting out of reach and every offer make had to be unconditional otherwise I am told in advance that there is 0 chance of offer being accepted.
Hey Sunny. You're 100% right. First, the media and government did their part by pushing the narrative that people are migrating from ON, BC, etc., in droves. Now, these pimps are ganging up at the direction of the cartel bosses a.k.a. the real estate board to manufacture panic and FOMO in AB.
What? That’s an odd comment, I’ve written many offers with buyers fully knowing we’re not going to win.
An advisor who doesn’t adhere to their clients demands should be fired instantly .
I can advise left or right but if they say go backwards … 🫡 ay ay captain
You got left in the dust bro
@@Adamcfyfe That's the whole point that I literally had to force the realtor to write with conditions and then they come back to me with a "I told ya..." face. The fact is any nice property can only be bought with no conditions. Calgary is very much used to the "no condition" offers.
@@dman9416 I have invested elsewhere, although I accept that it could have been the easiest ride had I bought one.
Calgary experienced a severe down turn since 2014 and the market just started recovering since 2022. Still there a large room for the market to grow. Why? Historically low inventory. Thats it.
Ok smart ass
Crash is coming!!!!!
It will be interesting to see what City councils decision will do to the market in Calgary.. I think its going to be a disaster. Cheaply built infills everywhere. Presswood, screws, and glues....
Calgary is running out of water. That may be a bust.
There will be at least 2 more cuts this year
Might not happen now because of the US inflation. Besides that, you don't have a crystal ball, no one does!
I think one more max. US fee can’t cut with the jobs numbers this week and won’t around election.!
You hope??
Click bait title
Of course
Why do you care about Calgary every second episode?
We could care less about Niagara.
Your jealousy is palpable.
You can’t stop till you get some kind of confirmation that Calgary is as bad as where you live.
Move on 🤡
I think you should move on.
It's a talk show about Calgary real estate.
Very interesting stats
What??? lol, that was an odd comment, I think believe the general viewership are curious about Canadian stats and want to know about various cities… did you see his other interviews or are your algorithms focused on Calgary?
John how can you be so wrong on your rate prediction. Tiff is a real man🫡🫡🫡