Is the Philippines caught in a superpower contest between US and China?
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- čas přidán 28. 06. 2024
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Geopolitical analysts Renato Cruz De Castro and Dindo Manhit assess the domestic and international factors influencing the nation's foreign policy. What are the risks for the Philippines? | #longconversation
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Bravo!!! three of you beautiful and intelligently talking together for our beloved PILIPINAS. Thank you so much
For me, it is a blessing that the money promised by China did not push through. Why? Because of corruption during the Duterte administration.
Well, good luck Philippines 😊
Wow its a very good conversation about PH Govt stand & WPS plans & proposal action that needs to be done by PH govt & allies... ❤❤we appreciate it & we hope the PBBM govt agencies wi take their course of action as soon as possible time... Dont let Chinese to take action ahead of us . Allied forces were here to help & support us Pilipinos & our military to confronts chinese hegemonic occupation at our EEZ in Wps... so help us God...🙏🙏🙏🇵🇭🇵🇭✌️✌️let there be peace in our WPS👍👍👏👏 thank u very much Mr R. Heydarian for hosting ur interesting vlog / show & thanks to both guest of ur show.... appreciate it much... God Bless PH & ur show & of courss our PBBM govt.
You say you want the Philippines to be a middle power, but many of your words, actions, & ideas can only cause further & wider divisions among various Filipino political groups.
In my 80 years of living, and from world geography, there had never been anything called "West Phillippines Sea".
Well this is because Chinese influences and propaganda was more widespread or may have affected our own capacity to assert our own territorial integrity.
It is important to note that several of our presidents of the past have been neglecting our Territory to chase after Chinese money.
West Philippine Sea is Philippines EEZ.
It was president P-noy who changed the name unilaterally to West Philippine Sea. Since time immemorial, it has been South China Sea.
That doesn't saying much 😆 😆
@@infinitrixtv5847 why did the world sail the south china seas? to trade with philippine? no to trade with china. this isn't "propaganda", the chinese didn't name the seas, the west did, because they know this seas is for trading with China. when you look at shipwreck from centuries ago in south china asia, you don't see the ship carrying philippine goods, you see them carrying chinese goods. regardless of who ship it is, they sail that sea to trade with China. that's just the reality.
the mistake philippine make is to assume the name has anything to do with China's claim. it doesn't. much of the gulf of mexico is US waters. why SCS islands became "chinese" territory is really because of Japan. Japan wanted control of those island before WWII, and so the only way for them to legitimately argue their right to occupy them is for them to claim those island belong to China. given the size of the Japanese fleet, no colonies in Southeast Asia, Philippine included dare to challenge the Japanese. so Japan tookover the island in the name that those island belong to China and they being at war with China can occupy them as part of the war.
when Japan surrender, China was left with this claim on those island and so send their navy to accept the handover from the Japanese garrison. that is what result in the reality of today. of course as colonies there is nothing Philippine can do about it. China was able to get there and accept the handover from the Japanese. note that China has never argue South China Seas is it EEZ, the EEZ disput has yet to be resolved. and if you confuse the 3 issue, you mess up Philiipine's case.
for example the main argument in the PCA isn't that those island belong to Philippine or the EEZ belong to Philippine, neither of those question were ask because Philippines knows it is unlikely to win. the argument it made was that those island cannot be qualify as island. the issue with that argument is it does not only deny china the right to claim them as island, it would also deny everyone else including philippine from claiming them as island. so the PCA ruling is a "mutual destruct" ruling, if Philippine use it, Philippine too won't be able to claim the islands. this is why Philippine doesn't push the document into the UN, it a "nuclear weapon" that Philippine keep in it pocket for if it loses the dispute, it could use it to deny China. using it would not grant Philippine the claim neither, it just to destroy everyone right to claim the island.
the dispute is way more complicated than the media explains. because it is several dispute overlapping and could be argued in very different way depending on the need of Philippines.
A very enligthening discussion that may benefit Patriotically Pilipinos.
Maganda kayong pakingan paano yong hinde nakapag aral ng English
It just happens that both US and Philippines interests are aligned but different against China. Yes, there is a power rivalry between them, but so is the Philippines and China.
This 2 gentlemen-guest of Mr. Heydarian have very good points on how to deal WPS issue
Thank you po. I really like this podcast since it tackles the issue that we are facing. We should not makeour own steps and China just belittle us and we need to stand as one to protect our territory
The real consideration for the Philippines is, can they win a war with China? Not only do they have to win but to keep China contained forever. China losing would be a humiliation, which will have future consequences. Will the US stand by the Philippines forever and will it be able to contain China forever? A war will result sooner or later over the Spratly if the present trajectory continues. I think the Ukraine war should teach small powers not to be naive.
Yes we will win. Southeast Asia ay daanan ng mga kalakal galing Asia papuntang Europe. Kaya may interest din ang mga European countries and US dyan. Kapag nakuha yan at yung Taiwan ng China, maghahari sa ekonomiya ang China which is ayaw at hindi hahayaang mangyari ng West. Saka in terms international law, Pilipinas ang tama.
Keep dreaming and thinking The west will fight for you, you will regret later
US does not have the ship number to win against China even if they want to. while the US fleet appear "big" on paper, most of the ship are either too old to fight (Tico), or not yet operational because of experimental technology not being matured (LCS). furthermore China has the home advantage, the sea is within China 3000 missiles strong, home defence umbrella that has proven ability to hit any ship 1500km from China. what China want in the COC is agreeable to all ASEAN member. Philippine is the only one refusing to sign it now.
War between Philippine and China is unlikely simply because Philippine does not have any means to contest those island anyway and China has no interest to invade Philippine. if Philippine cannot control the island, there is simply no threat to China so there is no point to have war.
Philipines wants to be Ukraine 2.0. But N. and S. Korea might get into a war first. The philipines should look at Ukraine. The white house told congressional leaders that without the 60B soon, Ukraine will fall in a matter of weeks, months at most. We now see Ukraine is like Afghanistan, without US prodding it collapses almost immediately. But in that collapse 100's of 1000's of Ukrainians have died, needlessly. But that's Ukraine's job, to be the sacrificial lamb in yet another proxy war. The US only wages war on small
countries, like Iraq, and Syria , and Libya and Aghanistan, oh the Taliban won. But we're beating the Houthis. Do Philipinos really want to be Ukraine 2.0, or are these just CIA trolls commeting?
@@cristiano7ronaldoTHEGOAT Thing is, even if we win, China would have probably wrecked through the country so much that we wouldnt be able to reap the rewards of China’s defeat, besides i do see somewhat of a repeat of ww2 with the ph essentially being a poland who’s strategy is to just pray that their allies would save them before being destroyed
We probably would end up in an even worse position than our pre war conditions
THe QUESTION: why were those promises on BRI during Duterte did not prosper?
Cause ccp knew they could not deliver
Both Duterte and Marcos Foreign Strategy compliments each other. Both are a good strategy.
I actually learn so much from this, especially the first half of the discussion. But it's really hard to hear expert of foreign policy who still believes in 'rules based order'. Even cave expert doesn't believe in the 'rules based order' anymore, certainly not after 100 days of genocide right in front of our eyes.
There are many mentioning of the roles of EU and Japan, but not a single word of ASEAN. The only time they said anything about their southeast asian neighbours were only about economic competition.
I mean, I get it if a white nation like Australia lose sight of geography when planning for geoeconomic/politic policy - it's utterly stupid, but I get it. But this is the Philippines, a country that rise from the rubble of the making of the Spanish, Japan and US and then still thinks that their best bet are the 'northern' countries, that look at you just as nurse and housemaids? Unbelievable.
How can you shake off your bullies (China) by positioning yourself as the servant of others?
Excellent guests!!
🌲👪Unless the Philippines Constitution is changed, allowing a president to stay for more than 2'terms,
Duterre cannot come back. Duterte of course is a,very good president.
In China, the constitution is changed to allow President Xi to stay on for a 3rd Term.
The Philippines could learn from China. ❤and put aside the horrible
Politicking learn from the USA
.. Harris Ng YM AMEN 😂❤👪🌲💰🍜🥂🍰☕🍞👍
The Philippines is not caught between superpowers. The Philippines has a separate issue with China. The U.S. and China have a separate interest in Taiwan too.
These three issues somehow merge like coffee and milk and the milk (the U.S.) neutralizes the taste
of a bitter coffee (China). The coffee drinker is the Philippines.THIS IS WHERE WE ARE TODAY.
Philippines is bring used by US to escalate the tensions in WPH sea
Nasaan asukal
Sana naman yung asukal ay economic prosperity
Malayo sa isyo ang gusto mong ipalagok
@@user-go3ox2ye7cAy kasama yan lagi sa issue
We are a middle power
The Philippines will be the next Ukraine
💯
🇵🇭💕❤️🇵🇭💕🇵🇭🇵🇭We will survive and defend Taiwan and our 250000 pilipino hospitality workers!!! Longlive Ukraine and SLAVA PILIOUNAS🇵🇭❤️🇵🇭💕🇵🇭❤️🇵🇭💕
BBM loves the US to go to war with China and to get even with what's happening in the WPS. US thought they're using the Philippines. 😂😂😂
Isn't the EPZA (Economic Processing Zone Area) the EcoZone where facilities (port, power, manpower etc.) are provided?
simple, the greed for territory will not always sit well on any nation on earth that respect the rule of law.
West Phil Sea?
NO it is the champion of champion Marcos Jnr super power ! Heydarian has got his head up his butt !
Pls comment about the position of Sen Imee Marcos being going against his brother
Long live PH US alliance 🇵🇭🇺🇸
Every time I hear that Philippine, Australia, Japan , SK, Eu always think they are the only alliance 🇨🇳 and 🇷🇺, Iran 🇮🇷, NK. Those are super power also an alliance but never mentioned.. I call it only see one side of story 😂😂
They are all from stratbase.
BBM lang sakalam. 🇵🇭
Emperor Pooh is greedy and always on the hunt for more honey
Incase of any circumstable war, Philippines will alwsys be with Uncle Sam in honor of the mutual defense treaty
The question shows the lack of understanding as regards geopolitics.
Here is the thing with the Philippines dealing with China issue , the USA has a trade relation with China and both profited from each other with such relationships. Indonesia Vietnam and Australia with its coal exports. However with it comes to Their Territory countries around the world who has relationship with China take it very seriously.. I've heard reports were south American countries tried to sink china militia vessel with Thier navy, I've heard Indonesia and Vietnam has an incident with China. Which got me to the conclusion that it's ok to deal with China as long as one has a hazmat suit on.
Yeah. The only way to defeat China without self-destructing yourself is to engage with them on the same level. If you're too weak like Duterte, they won't take you seriously. If you're too aggressive like PBBM, they will leave you to dry and perhaps become an existential threat. The only one that wins in the Philippines v China war is the US.
A week after China's ships violate the Natuna Sea EEZ (Indonesian part of South China Sea), one month before Joko Widodo opened the 1st high-speed railway in Southeast Asia funded by China, Indonesia held a joint-military training with the US in the same spot where China ships and coast guard were.
So, yes, I agree in the gist of your comment.
beautiful conversation. buti walang clowns 🤡🤡
China is fuming because of PBBM's pivot to the U.S. and they could not dictate us anymore unlike during the dynasty of Tatay Digong 😂
Tatay digong is dutae dumonyo na
The 3 of you are the mouthpiece of America,
And you are Chinese mouth piece!
The 3 are true Filipinos and I support them.
China is like Annabel child, and the Philippines, being a mother and standing firm what is right without use of force
NO To Pro 🇨🇳 po
No to chines hegemony no to makachina no authoritarian no to N pla
De Castro's keen observation here should NEVER be overlooked, ie "China says things, and then does something else".
This goes completely against the natural instinct of trust-based societies (like ours, and that of most allies). And thus it takes a concerted & continual effort to keep this top-of-mind, as we deal w/ them. PRC as a culture (and mind you, I"m talking about modern PRC, not 'traditional' Chinese culture... I steadfastly bifurcate the two) has proven time and time again: they will milk you for whatever they can get away with....and then when finally called out, will say "Who, me?? YOU are the problem!"
Buyer Beware.
Never believe what Communists say, just observe what they do
Or it's the USA
Colonial pivot to USA has its consequences
USA always flexing military muscle
China has no need
At south China sea or west Philippines sea
USA has no match with China
Is no match
This 2 🤡 pro US
US won't help PH when an actual war breaks out. That's the hard truth. US will always protect its interest first. US has a really messed up history in terms of foreign policy.
Maybe ,Sir then we will be would China? This is a joke...we just to choose lesser evil.I like they said we will balance the power and would benefit more in the Phil...look what they are saying about China ...no offence
First off : EVERY country will always protect its interests first; the US is not an exception.
Second: the Philippines’ sovereignty (and thus ability to maintain multi-pronged alliances w/US) is absolutely well-contained w/in the core interests of the US .
Third: you mentioned history ? the US has demonstrated they are willing to engage in armed intervention in conflicts where they’ve had even LESS baked -in equity/interests , than they currently do w/the Philippines.
I sincerely hope it never comes down to it, of course, but …our allies in this case are well-known .
Heck, the entire WORLD (well, outside of other despotic PRC-buddies like Russia and Iran) is telling us that they do not wish the Philippines to be subjugated by the black-hole regime that is the CCP…
US went to war with the Filipino resistance but fought hand in hand with Japanese invaders. So what history are you talking about?
@@papzchulo530 If you take a hard look of what transpired during the pacific war, US was only protecting PH because of its geographic advantage. The Philippines occupied a strategic location in the western Pacific, serving as a natural barrier and potential base for U.S. military operations. Control of the Philippines was seen as vital for both offensive and defensive purposes in the Pacific theater.
@@pushslice Vietnam war and Afghanistan - really bad history right there
In my view, China has caused the geopolitical tension in the Indo-Pacific region and the U.S. involvement is consequential to the other issues such as China's threat to Taiwan, Japan's territorial dispute with China, other countries territorial disputes with China. Therefore, its a case of China being caught in many issues in the region not to mentioned its domestic problems such as failing economy, failing Belt and Road Initiative, real estate and banking issues, political instability i.e two senior officials removed, etc. It's a bit of China's CCP diverting to international issue to rally its support from it's citizens. Here are the facts on China and Philippines issue.
1. China has reclaimed islands in Spratly Islands within Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone in violation of UNCLOS 200 nmi of EEZ and Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling.
2. China's PLA coast guards and militia fishing vessels are harassing Philippine supply vessels in Ayungin shoal, harassing fishermen in Scarborough shoals
3. Philippines has taken China to Permanent Court of Arbitration and won the ruling. Unfortunately China rejected the report and questioned the jurisdiction.
4. Philippines has no option but to call on its allies to support its claim and security.
U.S. containment of China's military expansion is consequential of the territorial dispute between China and Philippines. U.S. has done the same for Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.
For sure, china main intention in wps is the resources and they wanted to dominate the area for its future shipping business trades around asian countries thats why they put artificial island for security aspects as what they are doin right now.
Juanitotupas5017 talk alot but dont understand the conflict at all. Filipino has conflict with
Malaysia over claim of sabah. Philipine is fighting for territory which is clamed by many parties.
1. China has a greater territorial claim than phillipine because the Treaty of Taipei, the japanese gave up the island to ROC and not philippines
I mean, who else, who started annexing islands and militarising it immediately?? You mean Philippines ?? No
filipino lack the wisdom to deal with china?why should china help phillipine financially knowing the filipino will not be loyal after getting chinese money?
China's claim existed before UNCLOS. So if the Philippines wants to claim the islands, they would have to fight a war with China.
Expert out of no where your talking about me, I try to help my country where I born, If give me a power to negotiate regarding WPS I'll do it, but I don't want run over our president.
To make it clear..
China wanted to claim the whole Austronesian Sea which had a disputed territorial waters of Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan.
This could've been solve if China ambitious claim is not ridiculous as claiming the whole region but they were. They want to control the whole region or being a dominance superpower by controlling the resources and trade routes which is very important in the region to stay an international water.
International water is very different if it is claimed as territory of China, international waters means laws and regulations must follow the recognize law of the sea but if it is a china territory then they have the power that everyone who enter the territorial sea must follow their law such as tax, or banned any country who opposed them from using this territorial sea.
Second, no stupid country would allow another country annexed their territory same goes to Philippines, China claims our EEZ now, who can be so sure that they won't stop in that sea alone? they might claim some part of Luzon like China town as their historical town.. crazy right? but yes they were..
3rd: China wants to become a superpower, yes they were consider to small countries but to U.S they were just a frog living in a well, China knows these too.. They can't considered themselves as equal to U.S if they were trapped by U.S allies or surrounded.
China always put that this is not U.S business or U.S has no right to interfere the issue but they were wrong..
First, China was claiming a territory of a sovereign nation which had been recognize by the U.N and also its territory.
2nd U.S and Philippines had a long agreement, Mutual Defense Treaty which means attacking Philippines will put U.S to respongld. U.S doesn't want to interfere but if a war will happened then they will be forced to join this is why they want to warn China "DONT PUSH YOUR LUCK". U.S doesn't care about Philippines territorial dispute, it was only bcoz China put militia in thr region and keep doing drill that put U.S to respond and station troops in the Philippines. China hightened the tension by putting militia in the region it coz the U.S to respond China's actions.
3rd, Pacific needed peace right now, as Middle East and Europe was is war having Russia and Iran. To the world, China and North Korea might be the one that will put the region into the verge of war, this id why U.S, Australia, India and Japan was preparing warning these two mad dictators not to push their plans. Yes plan, Russia, Iran and China (NK China's dog) are considered the Triad of Tyranny. They were the one that is behind the war.
And to those countries that might tried to side with this tyranny, then be wise. Nazi, Italy and Japan have failed before, and failure means death of many citizens. Side with what is right, ine thing I know... Russia invading Ukraine is not right, Houthis and terrorist supprted by Iran is not right, and China claiming other territory is not right .
China was never an existential threat to the Philippines. But if the Philippines keep pushing it, they can be. There's no guarantee that if a war happens, the US will be willing to help the Philippines wholeheartedly. Hmmm..Remember 1899 or 1942? Moreover, PH is NOT part of NATO. PH is NOT Japan or South Korea. PH is hoping to be the Pearl Harbour of US but it could end up being the Ukraine of US.
Will it be worth the lives of Filipinos if it becomes Ukraine just because some leaders do not understand the nature of power in international relation?
And btw what the heck is Austronesian sea?
Other country: U.S will only backstab Philippines and might not help coz they will prioritize their interest.
Even so, we will protect what is ours and even if U.S didn't participate the war we don't care.. It is up to them if they were willing to help their allies and on what extent are they willing to help but as a proud FILIPINO we will not give an inch of our territory even if you call us foolish and diving in the land of death.. We are willing to march on our death as long as someone flipped that Philippine Flag.
Professor of what??
Philippines is an alibi of US to have access in Asia. What they what to avoid is China having the technology (TSMC) of Taiwan. That tech is vital to there military and almost all technological products in the world that why even Taiwan is small it has a significant power in the world economy. US can't let China fall since it a big market for them. It's a bigger market than the ph. There video games and movies media priorities China market Disney even act blind during the making of Mulan just to pleased there market. If China falls overnight it also affect there
economy. US might end up on agreement with China because why they prioritize Ph if it change president after a few years and the next one might be against them. Meanwhile if they make a deal with China it well last for a long time and more beneficial since Xi Jinping is always the leader of China and may only be replaced if he dies. Stop to focus on Ph as if it's so important for the US. Worse case scenario US and China might combine to have monopoly the resources in South China Sea. If you don't know US provide Ukraine weapons in war against Russia but you know those weapons are low tech and about to be disposed anyways. Ukraine helping them disposed the weapons for them are trash at the same time. Looking good to the world as this powerful nation helping the weak. US won't make a move without a reason or gaining from it that what I can say to Philippines.
JFC.
How many times are you going to cut + paste the SAME comment multiple times across this (and other) Comment section??
if you're going to be a wumao bot, at least TRY and appear believable? extremely sloppy (well, that's the wumao calling-card, so, no surprises...)
Who fuckin care? The point is Chinese government is invading Philippines exclusive Economic Zone. That it
Go back to your school sounds like stupid
Off course because Chinese saw the Duterre is a very cheap person who can be bought easily with.very little amount of money so they just baloonized him.
Duterte is worthnothing and what he cares is not to harm China. I salute BBM for his dedication and for his true love to the Pholippines
😂😂Andito na nmn si gaydarian expert kuno 😅😅😅
Atleast sya expert ikaw mangmang 😂
Yong WPS dapat problema na natin yan as an independent country kung may sapat tayong military capibilities eh kaso wala pota ni missile nga wala eh MRF wala ni isa yong FA50 Hindi naman multirole fighter yan, warship 2 LANG ni tinangalan pa ng weapon system cannon lang abay kung aasa lang tayo sa america parati baka magising na kayo kinabukasan wala na kayong pilipinas dahil sa bulok na systema na hangang ngayon hindi parin inaayos AFP walang balak din mag modernized kontinto na sila sa mga gamit na hindi naman lethal 1year na nga silang delay 2023 palpak hindi gumalaw yong bhramos missile na dapat dec 2023 hangang ngayon wala nasama ata yon sa pina cancel ni GIBO teodoro ,walang mangyayari jan sa modernization ng AFP na yan