I agree! I have never bought any of their products. I’m old do that is probably reason enough. Those who have purchase this stuff some have claimed that LULU has changed it materials to a less desirable on. Don’t know if it’s true. Also claims of overpriced products. Might explain why the are at $259 today. Pity those who purchased based on this video…
Great analysis and commentary. Thanks for your work. The explanations are nice reminders or learning bits for your viewers, too. I'm sure it's repetitive for you to dish them out almost every video but it's appreciated as it helps hammer in principles and attach them to a concrete example.
Really appreciate the content.. My only problem is that it's all about the rear view mirror. The projections in your valuation model are all about using the past to predict the future. This can be very dangerous for companies whose unit economics may no longer be working, who may have a new competiitor, or whose TAM might be shrinking. In reality the analysis should be spent in analyzing future growth prospects, new markets, new product line opportunities, expanding TAM potential, new customers strategies, international expansion opportunities, etc... The market couldn't care less about the past. It's all about the future. And right now, clearly, the market is worried about LULUs future. It's our job to decide if the market is correct. Just forecasting from past financial metrics can be a very dangerous way to do this especially when it comes to growth stocks like LULU.
That's what I thought too. Sure 2% is in line with the last 10 years, but the growth was much higher than what's expected going forward. If one forecasts declining growth then the FCF yield should be adjusted accordingly.
Reducing the yield would increase the 10 year stock price, which is less conservative than the 2% yield. The stock price is derived from the 10 year FCF of 17$ divided by the yield.
This caught my eyes as I couldn’t make sense why it went down when their ER wasn’t bad and guidance wasn’t horrible. So why Wall Street hating it? Did JK praised it😅😂 Your videos is timely; thank you!
Whether you bought it at 300, or 247 today, or maybe 220 tomorrow, it's going over 300 and more later. Be careful if you're trying to 'time the market' low. You may miss out on the uptrend.
It's a compounder. It has higher risk than stocks youve examined recently (Cisco and ADP), and i dont like recent stock repurchases at high prices, but it has upside potential associated with growth in asia pacific
I agree about the bit concerning analysts estimates. Around 2021 40 analysts had an average price target of $350 on Carvana when it was clear to anybody with two brain halves that it was a dumpster fire. They just follow price trends.
Thank you! I've bought shares at 307, definitely going to get more.. Could you do an analysis of LNTH? It has an amazing growth in the past few years, it has an estimated growth of over 30% annually for the next 5 years, and it's undervalued - PE of 12 and PEG of 0.6
@@TomBTerrific I was happy the price was down - I bought more at 248.. stock price will always fluctuate in the short term. I'm looking long term - at least the next 5 years
I’m trying to understand the consumer strength and preferences. To me it seems consumer weakness is a risk to consider. Whereas preferences, it’s seems very strong with women, Nike is the comparably strong brand for men. Any thoughts?
LULU seems to be experiencing a lack of confidence as the talking heads worry about the strength of the consumer as the kids call them not politically correct. So how long can mood overwhelm fundamentals?
It can be a great business. Many businesses have done this incredibly successfully. The execution becomes a much bigger risk, though. Management would need to continue to do it properly which is harder than organic growth
Hang in there. This is a solid company. If you are down today, remember to avoid the pitfall of being short sighted on financially strong growth companies like $LULU. Patience my friend. I legged in to a bunch of $LULU also.
I still don't get why we treat all FCF as it'd be dividends. Imagine a company that is growing 5%, does not pay dividends, uses all FCF for acquisitions to support that 5% growth. Going forward we assume that 5% growth will be there due to acquisitions and we count FCF as dividends, but it will be spent for acquisitions. Sounds like it's counted twice which boots the IRR artificially.
I agree with other people that your cashflow yield assumptions are too aggressive. I would have said 4-5%. Plus, forward earnings is not 17x, but 27x, at least according to Yahoo Finance for end 2024.
building brick and mortar stores is bad. It was for amazon, tesla and other new companies whose customers all came from the web. Why waste margin on real estate and retail employees, and make it easy for customers to do returns. When, they can just stay on the web. Bad move
Apparel business can hardly avoid brick and mortar. Sizing and how it looks will never be completely online. To a certain extent, even cars like Tesla can avoid the showroom but I don;t think clothing, footwear and apparel will ever reach that state completely.
@@leegengxiang2173 Bezos famously said internally, "we do want our customers who need handholding to go to our competitors, it reduces our costs and increases theirs at the same time". every professional I know under the age of 30 hasn't been in a clothing store since precovid. they are brand loyal and know the fit of the brands they are loyal to. Brands like Columbia, Levis, Lulu and Zenni have proven that detailed consistent sizing and fitment lets them grow on platforms like Amazon without brick and mortar. Lulu would be better off expanding into more international markets by mail. Places like Brazil, Southern Europe. There is low hanging fruit and management is building expensive stores. Bad move. That is why its on sale. The story has run to its conclusion. Until management comes with a new geography, or new products (make up or jewelry or shoes or . . . ); its gonna be a value trap.
What about the fickleness of the typical consumer...? Do you really think that Lululemon will be a popular brand 10 years from now? I doubt it. Look at every other "brand retailer" over the last 20 years... Eddie Bauer, American Eagle, Aeropostale, GAP, etc. etc. they don't hold out over time.
seeing this stock at $235 today is blowing my mind. it makes me want to buy as much shares as i can!
I agree! I have never bought any of their products. I’m old do that is probably reason enough. Those who have purchase this stuff some have claimed that LULU has changed it materials to a less desirable on. Don’t know if it’s true. Also claims of overpriced products. Might explain why the are at $259 today. Pity those who purchased based on this video…
Great analysis and commentary. Thanks for your work.
The explanations are nice reminders or learning bits for your viewers, too. I'm sure it's repetitive for you to dish them out almost every video but it's appreciated as it helps hammer in principles and attach them to a concrete example.
Glad you like them!
Missed these vids, Cameron!
Great video as always. It would be cool to see you do Nike so we can compare them and see which company is better.
I posted Nike in the cash flow club.
timely and awesome. Appreciate your insight 🙌
I just found your channel yesterday after searching for Lockheed Martin analysis. Your analysis is incredible, thanks for posting these videos for us.
Welcome aboard!
Really appreciate the content..
My only problem is that it's all about the rear view mirror. The projections in your valuation model are all about using the past to predict the future. This can be very dangerous for companies whose unit economics may no longer be working, who may have a new competiitor, or whose TAM might be shrinking.
In reality the analysis should be spent in analyzing future growth prospects, new markets, new product line opportunities, expanding TAM potential, new customers strategies, international expansion opportunities, etc...
The market couldn't care less about the past. It's all about the future. And right now, clearly, the market is worried about LULUs future. It's our job to decide if the market is correct.
Just forecasting from past financial metrics can be a very dangerous way to do this especially when it comes to growth stocks like LULU.
Appreciate your content ❤ especially like you shorts about stock picks. Have a great day
Thanks for saying that
2% fcf yield seems a bit aggressive no ? Given the maturity of the business by then with probably mid single digit growth
I was thinking the same thing. Cannot call 2% conservative. But great video though 😊
That's what I thought too. Sure 2% is in line with the last 10 years, but the growth was much higher than what's expected going forward. If one forecasts declining growth then the FCF yield should be adjusted accordingly.
Reducing the yield would increase the 10 year stock price, which is less conservative than the 2% yield.
The stock price is derived from the 10 year FCF of 17$ divided by the yield.
@@maximepoirier3589 No one said anything about reducing the yield
@@harjotbrar1984good to see punjabi here😅.khich ke
Amazing work as always. Thanks for the Education 🏆
Thanks sir for the very detailed break down.
What do you think of their total addressable market? Is it really that big?
thank you for being teacher and explaining things.
appreciate the analysis and explanation good stuff
Thanks for such an educational and clear description of your analysis. Subscribed.
Welcome aboard!
Ok dude! I’ve always liked your skew on things, and not I dig it even more! Thank you for the history lesson🙌
Either it's an LVMH or its a VFC. Fashion is fleeting and unpredictable. But it is compelling.
You have earned a subscription. Great content!!
Excellent work Cam. Just picked up some shares today. Of course I made my own decision.
Fantastic!
Cameron address some of the newer comments!
Great video,man. Thanks! I bought your educational videos. I use it when i buy stocks.
Glad to hear it!
As a value investor id like it better if it was trading for $50, good businesses and i understand paying a premium for growth but they are a retailer.
I do like the aggressive stock repurchase program though.
This caught my eyes as I couldn’t make sense why it went down when their ER wasn’t bad and guidance wasn’t horrible. So why Wall Street hating it? Did JK praised it😅😂
Your videos is timely; thank you!
awesome video
Amazing analysis. Still over-priced stock though
Whether you bought it at 300, or 247 today, or maybe 220 tomorrow, it's going over 300 and more later. Be careful if you're trying to 'time the market' low. You may miss out on the uptrend.
@27:03 Not very conservative to average $7, $2 & $12 when $12 and $7 appear to be outliers. At the very least U should skip $12 (I'd remive $7 too).
It's a compounder. It has higher risk than stocks youve examined recently (Cisco and ADP), and i dont like recent stock repurchases at high prices, but it has upside potential associated with growth in asia pacific
I agree about the bit concerning analysts estimates. Around 2021 40 analysts had an average price target of $350 on Carvana when it was clear to anybody with two brain halves that it was a dumpster fire. They just follow price trends.
What do you think about BLK stock?
I believe they meet the 5 criteria. Or at least 60 percent of them.
Always appreciate the videos!
Thank you! I've bought shares at 307, definitely going to get more.. Could you do an analysis of LNTH? It has an amazing growth in the past few years, it has an estimated growth of over 30% annually for the next 5 years, and it's undervalued - PE of 12 and PEG of 0.6
How are you feeling about that purchase now?
@@TomBTerrific I was happy the price was down - I bought more at 248.. stock price will always fluctuate in the short term. I'm looking long term - at least the next 5 years
Liked, I'm shocked you are not talking about Nike and UPS
Nike still looks over priced to me.
I’m trying to understand the consumer strength and preferences. To me it seems consumer weakness is a risk to consider. Whereas preferences, it’s seems very strong with women, Nike is the comparably strong brand for men. Any thoughts?
Great company, but keep it to the future. It is reaching its 200SMA on the weekly chart. It bounced 7 time in the last three years
LULU seems to be experiencing a lack of confidence as the talking heads worry about the strength of the consumer as the kids call them not politically correct. So how long can mood overwhelm fundamentals?
Very good. Thank you!
Thank you too!
They mentioned growth will slow down in recent quarter results.
Hi Cameron - what investing books could you recommend?
Current $366 now, would that take it to 13/14% IRR
Love the company personally, but this falls into the category of stocks that I’d never pay more than 15 times earnings for like Ben Graham says.
Can you pls make a video on khc
If you say that a valid use of free cashflow is acquisitions then how should we value businesses that only grow through acquisitions?
It can be a great business. Many businesses have done this incredibly successfully. The execution becomes a much bigger risk, though. Management would need to continue to do it properly which is harder than organic growth
can you make a video about FIGS? heavy cash on hand, lululemon of healthcare segment
Figs needs better management end of discussion.
deeply appreciate this thesis and analysis , "no nonce and to the point" , thanks and I'm not going to panic on my investment on LULU
Time to buy LULU down here in the mid-250s
Why?
@@TomBTerrific why not
The ladies love lululemons, it’s like a status symbol… they keep buying them non stop.
How are they going to afford them now they must repay their student loans?
so I'm guessing you really love it today at $252/shr? thinking about buying here
price is what you pay, value is what you get
@@CstewartCFAis it the same value today? You were saying $400 was its value so it’s a bargain at $259.
@@CstewartCFAis it the same value today? You were saying $400 was its value so it’s a bargain at $259.
i love that shirt
Bought some shares today, lets hope for the best!
Fingers crossed!
Hang in there. This is a solid company. If you are down today, remember to avoid the pitfall of being short sighted on financially strong growth companies like $LULU. Patience my friend. I legged in to a bunch of $LULU also.
"For all of you fellow degenerate gamblers out there kudos to you" LOL
I still don't get why we treat all FCF as it'd be dividends.
Imagine a company that is growing 5%, does not pay dividends, uses all FCF for acquisitions to support that 5% growth. Going forward we assume that 5% growth will be there due to acquisitions and we count FCF as dividends, but it will be spent for acquisitions. Sounds like it's counted twice which boots the IRR artificially.
the deal just got sweeter. 348$ per share now.
-100$ today
295.87 on 7/8/2024
Love your analysis
I agree with other people that your cashflow yield assumptions are too aggressive. I would have said 4-5%. Plus, forward earnings is not 17x, but 27x, at least according to Yahoo Finance for end 2024.
is it possible to review RACE "Ferrari" would it bear lululemon or lemon remains better
I like LULU!
The Apple of yoga pants.
Opportunity
Time to buy now?.hahah.
Yum 299$ 🔥
Now it's about $300
at my daughters school alo yoga is in lululemon is out
alo yoga seems to have worse quality than lululemon
The Numbers say different
Elementary school? 💁
It woyld be more helpful if u provided details.
1k$ for LULU dawg? :D
Like it at $400, you’ll love it at $357
Like it at $357, you’ll love it at $335
Wait until it hits 250, like it, live it, love it.
312 now going under 300 soon CPO leaving… will buy lulu soon
@@theresamorgavi9196 I’d consider it at $250.
How about 299?
I hope it's not just a fad and will laat long like Nike
Can you do allbirds $BIRD
That one’s going to zero man.
Seems like a too good to be true company. Wow…
ULTA vs LULU
All my homies hate the mouse.
Hahahahahahah yess
Buy costco.
Theyre gonna eat lulus lunch
building brick and mortar stores is bad. It was for amazon, tesla and other new companies whose customers all came from the web. Why waste margin on real estate and retail employees, and make it easy for customers to do returns. When, they can just stay on the web. Bad move
Apparel business can hardly avoid brick and mortar. Sizing and how it looks will never be completely online. To a certain extent, even cars like Tesla can avoid the showroom but I don;t think clothing, footwear and apparel will ever reach that state completely.
The above comment is correct but also look it from the Apple prism. They are trying to emulate a premium brand with a community.
@@leegengxiang2173 Bezos famously said internally, "we do want our customers who need handholding to go to our competitors, it reduces our costs and increases theirs at the same time". every professional I know under the age of 30 hasn't been in a clothing store since precovid. they are brand loyal and know the fit of the brands they are loyal to. Brands like Columbia, Levis, Lulu and Zenni have proven that detailed consistent sizing and fitment lets them grow on platforms like Amazon without brick and mortar. Lulu would be better off expanding into more international markets by mail. Places like Brazil, Southern Europe. There is low hanging fruit and management is building expensive stores. Bad move. That is why its on sale. The story has run to its conclusion. Until management comes with a new geography, or new products (make up or jewelry or shoes or . . . ); its gonna be a value trap.
What about the fickleness of the typical consumer...? Do you really think that Lululemon will be a popular brand 10 years from now? I doubt it. Look at every other "brand retailer" over the last 20 years... Eddie Bauer, American Eagle, Aeropostale, GAP, etc. etc. they don't hold out over time.
Debt is zero😂? I saw balance sheet. lululemon has the liabilities.😅 What's level of liabilities can be judged to zero debt?
Jesus, debt and liabilities are definitely not the same thing. I suggest educating yourself on the matter.
@@TheKolopololo Okey, I know where I am wrong. Here is cash flow. I am sorry bro.