How to beat the bookies
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- čas přidán 24. 01. 2018
- If you want to beat the bookies, don't play against them, but do what they do!
What they actually do and how we can beat them?
In this video you will find answers to this and many other questions.
Only 5% of bettors are successful.
You just need to choose the right betting method and success is guaranteed, you just need to watch how the bookies work and copy their methods. - Sport
The output (at those odds) is not wrong, the odds might be wrong supposing that they might be available at a spotted time. However, I don't say it is impossible, since I noticed frequently the laying odd (betting against the occurence of event) is in average with 0,01-0,03 higher than the backing odd (betting in favor of the occurence of the event).
What is for sure is that the sum of backing odds is always 100% when you convert them to probabilities (you devide 1 by the odd to calculate the probability of the event or the meaning of the odd).
So theoretically at least, if we admit that each laying odd is in average by 0.01 up to 0.2 higher than the backing odd, you might end up with the sum of probabilities of betting against the 3 possible results being 104% as in the presented example.
What definetely 95% of those who commented here don't understand and what it makes actually the bookmakers happy :)), is how laying/backing odds and stakes work in a trading system, which is absolutely totally different in terms of output with the classic betting (which is gambling actually acording to any definition).
When you back an event/result (eg. 1, X or 2) you actually are in a regular betting (gambling) setup as long as you don't spot for odds movement to get a profit before the end of the match (which is trading and more speculative approach).
Let's say you place a 100 stake on a backing odd of 1.5. Then you might have only two possible results: either you loose the whole stake (if the result you bet on didn't happen) or, you get a 50 profit if the result you bet on did happen. From this perspective, since the gambling is high risk approach (you might loose the whole stake you put on one bet) it is high rewarding in terms of possible profit. In reality, realising the profit has a mathematical chance of 33,3% and this is what this guy suggests here, not that the chances of Chelsea wining, Draw or Arsenal wining are the same (which is to be modeled with more advanced probability techiques and it has to incorporate factors as red cards, fatigue and injuries/absence or recent form, to be consistent).
On the other hand, when you are laying a result of a match/event, you bet against that result to happen. This means that, if the result you bet against it does happen, then you lost, while in any of the other possible two outputs, you won. If you lay a team, basically what you do is to back any of the other two options: the draw and the other team to win.
This approach is similar with a bookmaker' s one: if I am the bookmaker and you bet 100 on an option I offer you at an odd of 1.5, then in case you were right, I have to give you the 100 stake back plus 50 as profit. For the bookmaker this means that he records a -50 in its book. The situation is identical with the bookmaker laying (betting against) that result. If your bet was wrong, you record a -100 loss and the bookmaker records a 100 profit vs. the situation before the bet. Hence, when you lay a result, in case that the player accepting your odd of 1.5 for 100 stake was wrong with his bet, you get a profit of 100. However, similarly with a bookmaker, if the other player was right, you will loose 50.
Therefore, the amount you can loose is (laying odd - 1)*stake and this is what the guy here means by "liability": the amount you need in your bank in order to place a bet against any result.
When you place a laying bet, the other players have the final said on accepting or not the stake you intend, because that stake is actually their monies placed on the backing bet in favor of the result to happen.
The downside of the presented example in the video is that you need to have a very consistent bankroll, which is not the sum of stakes, as some of you wrongly stated (185), but it is even higher: 75+130,5+144=349.5 !
To get the profits advanced in the video, besides of a combination of laying odds having their probabilities equivalents sumed higher than 100%, you also need the total liability amount of 349,5 as you place and run all the three bets against 1, X and 2 the same time.
So the question you have to answer yourself first after you identified an opportunity is whether you are willing to lock in 349,5 to gather a guaranteed profit below 10 ?
Some will take it, some will not. We don't think the same in terms of risks.
I would probably not take this combination of odds, as I don't think that it worth to wait at least 90 minutes to mark a maximum guaranteed profit below 3%, when probably with a slightly more risky approach, but saving significant time, I can enter into a trade and speculate the moves in live odds suposing I am able to pick the right strategy. But, some will be comfortable with the guaranteed profit in any output of the event and just think about that if you have a sufficient consistent bank (10 or 100 times the total liability engaged on a match) you might pick up some good daily profits since you will have the posibility to apply the system on several matches played simultaneously, which is usually the case with the European Cups or National competitions.
What might also worth to be investigated is whether you can place the bets against the three possible results at different moments, which would bring the advantage (but sometimes also the disadvantage) of odds moving and so you gather more value from each bet. For instance, if you place your first bet against Team1 and after 6 hours or 1 day the odd for Team 1 wining increases, then expectations are that the odds for the Draw, respectively for Team 2 to win will decrease compared with their levels when you placed the first bet against Team1. The odd for laying (against) the result usually follows the tendency of the backing odd, so this means that the laying odds for Draw and Team 2 to win will also decrease with a similar pace as the backing odds, leading to higher probabilities vs. what you would have got at the moment of the the first bet. For the given example, let's say that you first bet against Chelsea and in a second or third instance the odds against the draw and against Arsenal are lower so that the sum of probabilities of the three results will not be 104% as in this example, but 107%. Even during the in-playing this opportunity can occur, with more significant changes than in the prematch horrizon of time.
Effectively, in this scenario, your liability for laying the draw and laying Arsenal will be lower, increasing your net profit in case either it is a draw or Arsenal wins and you lost the respective bet against the result that did happen.
On the downside, if the odds go in the opposite direction (the laying odd for draw and the laying Arsenal one would increase compared with their levels at the moment when you placed the first bet against Chelsea) you might mark a lower profit than if you would have placed all the three bets at the same time, or even a loss (if the sum of probabilities falls below 100%).
Always bear in mind that the lower the laying odd, the higher the profit and vice-verse. So it is again a decision making process considering the willigness to take some risk or not, in exchange of a higher profit vs. a smaller guaranteed one.
I only stayed for the music.
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What is this music name
Thanks,my brother!!!Please upload more if possible I follow everything you say.
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HE IS RIGHT. HE IS NOT ON METH LOL. Thanks for the tips. I'm OK if people don't believe me, lol. I'll just book another vacation or go the mall if the doubters doubt. i definitely dont have a printing press, but this is close enough. Thanks again. I've already been working the market, I'm just out to collect more information is all.
Last 2 min calc does not take commission into account. In the NL it is 6.5%. With that in mind, profit would be 4 Euro (Chelsea win), 0,40 Euro (draw) and -8,42 (Arsenal win).
it's not true, obviously you have a problem understanding how comission is calculated.
@@vidichzoran Show me your calculations including commission.
@@grazianolaudisio3644 The commission (percentage) will only be calculated on your net earnings (your net winnings on a market).
One match is one event, it's a market no matter how many bets we have on that match, a net profit is counted on that match.
it means:
if Chelsea win your commission is
10$ - 6.5% = 10$ - 0.65$ = 9.35$
if draw your commission is
9.5$ - 6.5% = 9.5$ - 0.62$ = 8.82$
if Arsenal win your commission is 1$ - 6.5% = 1$ - 0.065$ = 0.935$
if you have a discount (based on points) your commission will be even smaller.
en-betfair.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/413/~/exchange%3A-what-is-commission-and-how-is-it-calculated%3F
You should join Matchbook, you only pay 2% on your net winnings
@@masonridgewell8063
Can deposit and withdrawal without ID proof Documents on Matchbook,?
You would never get lay odds like this as the overround is 104.52% Never goes over 100%. Ever!
Its like betting on heads on decimal odds of 1.75 and tails on decimal odds 2.2 but the total prob comes out to be 102
Please tell me more
Explain me how you've distributed price? On which bases?
Very interesting idea, certainly better than straight betting ...
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Hi Sir, this is a really an impressive explainer video. I know this question is a bit off, but may I ask what software did you use in creating the cartoon characters? I need to create explainer video as well but I don't know where to start. Hope you can help me. Thank you in advance.
Try Microsoft PowerPoint 😉
search whiteboard animation software
Explain me which price your betting in that? 75 or 100?
Nd how 44 nd 45 you've distributed?
If you pick out a random number on keno (providing it is not computer generated) let it roll 7 times no show put your stake down , no show? , one more time same stake , no show? double up stake money , still a chance of taking , one third on top of all stake money , Still no show? Bet same stake again , no show ? double up , no show? It ain't keno your playing don't drink so much. Probablity is an exact science given enough time.
Great video. Really enjoyed the video.
Man with a sense of irony. Rare on CZcams.
Is this suggesting that all 3 outcomes of any football match have 3 even probabilities?
I didn't understand your question.
Do they work on multi bets
What is the music I have been searching for 3 years 😭
Munni badnam hui darling tere liye
@@carrymirror9260 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
How? If chelsea win i loose 10€, i played with, 185,€ and if chelsea win i clam 175, so i won 75 and lost 85, and the rest bet too is same
His numbers don't add up
@Boukhris Yassine
In your case, the problem is that you do not understand how to use a betting exchange
@@vidichzoran which calculator you used to calculate the stakes?
someone give me the title of the song in the background
you can ever win abeting system if ther own way nobdy wetell you he cepet for himself
It is possible but you have to put the work in
if chelsea wins you get 75 then minus the sum total of 45 and 40 you bet on the other 2 options....my maths says 75 -85 equals to -10. thats a loss
Your math is wrong. The first thing you need to do is understand what Liability means in betting.
75-85 = -10 it's lose sir
@@adekomaru3547 but 85-75 is not
@@vidichzoran 85 is your losing stake (money that gone). 75 is the winning. So you lose 85 and get 75 is a minus.
Your laying the bet, did you watch the video. No wonder the bookies are always smiling
try finding them odds its impossible
Your premise about 33% is wronYouYOu only have to look at league tables to see that. Plus your opponent is also often a bookie with supercomputers. Not saying its not possible to make money but only a small fraction if people will and it takes a lot of skill and research.
I explained in this video why it's better to use betting exchange as a service instead of traditional betting.
In the betting exchange, your opponents are not bookmakers.
@@vidichzoran Yeah they are super computers instead.
You forget odds change. If your betting a favorite you give points, or can take the points off and bet money line. Ex- you bet on Patriots their favorite by 10. You bet 110 to win 100 you give the 10 and have to win by 11 cause you can't make 1/2 point in sports. Or you take that 10 points away bet Patriots money line have to put 400 to 500 just to win a hundred. Or bet the dog and have them play catch-up your winning before they started playing. At the end you realize the game was all a show. You win or don't. Lol
why does your site doesnt work ?
How can I do
They're controlling the game day by day, how can we win?
Have accounts with bookmakers as well. Lay with exchange and back with bookmaker.
I can just go on a bookie site and back a draw and a win for team with longest odds same 2/3 of scenarios covered ...simples.
Nope. Prices are about 20% more generous on exchanges for a start.
Interested but i cant understand anything..!!😂
Ther the is closed
betting-tracers.com cant open the website
No calculation is wrong here. But I dobt the market often offer this kind of opportunity. Unless if the Odds always present a mathematical Edge. It would be too easy.
Could you explain it more to me
I don't get the calculation. To me in every bet it's a lose
Non capisco un caso
If Chelsea wins it 10dollar loss not profit
that wrong calculation
Which calculation is wrong?
If chelsea win lose -$10 = $85-$75
If draw lose -$9.5 = $140-$130.5
if arsenal win lose -$1 = $145-$144
@@zuhrishaquel7718 What's wrong here?
Don't understand this
Impossible to follow this format. Just talk.
Your calculation is not balance your Total bet is $185 and you are losing about $50 to $75 to the bookmaker just delete this video from CZcams pls save others
Some flawed logic here regarding odds
What for example?
If you explain what you didn't understand, I will try to explain it to you.
you don't just divide 100 into the number of options that's not how probability works. the reason bookies have their prices is based on their calculated probability, with decrease in odds so that the bettor is at a disadvantage. realistically it would be more likely that Chelsea win (not 33.3%) otherwise the odds would all be the same price
@@molen142
Odds or probability offered by bookmakers, that is their subjective probability. If one event has three possible results then the mathematical probability is 33.33%
Based on the analysis, we or the bookie, we make our analysis and we get our own subjective probability.
Who has a better subjective assessment of probability, he wins.
Until the match is over we do not know who won, there is no guarantee that the bookmaker's assessment will always be correct.
Each assessment is subjective, based on a particular methodology that each of us chooses.
However, each of the three options is possible
You lay on the exchange (bet against it) so it covers the 2 other options, the only flawed thing I see is the odds being under 1 but it's the same principle, if you back at the bookies and lay it on the exchange at a lower price you can't possibly lose
@@davidbarnard5873 Art is the next, find the difference in odds, to buy it cheaply and sell it expensive or buy on one side and sell it on the other side
Stupid calculation
@Bilal Hammad
You can try to show us your smart calculation, if you have it.
Zoran Vidich lol
U are betting 185$ so can u tell me how u win money with that?
@@vidichzoran could you please explain it more to me.
I don't get the calculation, to me it's a lose on every bet
The music is cool, thats the only thing cool about this video. You will never get these lay odds. These people on Exchanges or not idiots.